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Studies show Covid vaccines remain highly protective against severe disease for most people, but protection against infection has fallen. Page A10.

What We Know So Far About Waning Vaccine Effectiveness

25%

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Weeks since second dose

Shaded areasshow the rangeof likely values

Weeks since second dose

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Effectiveness against any infection

PfizerU.S. STUDY

ModernaCANADIAN STUDY

PfizerCANADIANSTUDY

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Effectiveness against hospitalization

PfizerCANADIANSTUDY

ENGLISH STUDY

Range oflikely values

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STUDY

Range oflikely values

ModernaENGLISH STUDY Pfizer

Sources: The Times reviewed research on vaccine effectiveness with experts from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and selected studies examining the duration of vaccine protection since the date of full vaccination, while Delta was the dominant variant.

AMY SCHOENFELD WALKER AND JOSH HOLDER/THE NEW YORK TIMES

At night in the refugee camps,with only a thin tarpaulin wall asprotection, Mohammed waits forthe men to come and kill him.

In less than a month, assassinshave killed at least eight people inthe Rohingya refugee settlementsof southeastern Bangladesh, si-lencing those who have dared to

speak out against the violentgangs that plague the camps. Aswith Mr. Mohammed, the mili-tants threatened their victims be-fore they killed, leaving their tar-gets in a perpetual panic.

“I am living under the knife of afearful and depressing life,” saidMr. Mohammed, a community or-ganizer whose full name is not be-ing used because of the docu-

mented risks he faces. “I came toBangladesh from Myanmar be-cause I would be killed there.Here, also, there are no guaran-tees for a safe life.”

In the world’s largest single ref-ugee encampment, life is becom-ing unlivable. Already, RohingyaMuslims had to flee ethnic cleans-ing in their native Myanmar, end-ing up in a sprawl of shelters thatranks among the most tightlypacked places on earth. Now,among the warrens of tents cling-ing to denuded hills, militants

Driven Out of Myanmar, and Facing Death Threats in BangladeshBy HANNAH BEECH Rohingya Terrorized by

Gangs Plead for Help

Continued on Page A8

WASHINGTON — A coalitionof conservative religious groups iswaging an intensive lobbying ef-fort to remove a nondiscrimina-tion provision from President Bi-den’s ambitious prekindergartenand child care plans, fearing itwould disqualify their programsfrom receiving a huge new infu-sion of federal money.

The fight could have major con-sequences for a central compo-nent of Mr. Biden’s $1.85 trillionsocial policy bill, which the Houseis to consider as soon as this week.It could go a long way toward de-termining which programs, neigh-borhoods and families can benefitfrom the landmark early-child-hood benefits established in thelegislation, given that child carecenters and preschools affiliatedwith religious organizations makeup a substantial share of those of-fered in the United States — serv-ing as many as 53 percent of fam-ilies, according to a survey lastyear by the Bipartisan Policy Cen-ter.

The provision at issue is astandard one in many federallaws, which would mandate thatall providers comply with federalnondiscrimination statutes. Reli-

Looming FightOn Faith, FundsAnd Child Care

By LUKE BROADWATER

Continued on Page A14

GLASGOW — After two weeksof lofty speeches and bitter negoti-ations among nearly 200 nations,the question of whether the worldwill make significant progress toslow global warming still comesdown to the actions of a handful ofpowerful nations that remain atodds over how best to address cli-mate change.

The United Nations global con-ference on climate change closedSaturday with a hard-foughtagreement that calls on countriesto return next year with strongeremissions-reduction targets andpromises to double the moneyavailable to help countries copewith the effects of global warming.It also mentions by name — forthe first time in a quarter centuryof global climate negotiations —the main cause of climate change:fossil fuels.

But it did not succeed in helpingthe world avert the worst effectsof climate change. Even if coun-tries fulfill all the emissions prom-ises they have made, they still putthe world on a dangerous path to-ward a planet that will be warmerby some 2.4 degrees Celsius byyear 2100, compared to preindus-trial times.

That misses by a wide margin

Scant Few Hold Keys to SuccessOf Climate Vow

By SOMINI SENGUPTA

Continued on Page A9

A loophole lets ghost gun parts be made without serial numbers.HAVEN DALEY/ASSOCIATED PRESS

CHULA VISTA, Calif. — MaxMendoza’s parents awakened justafter dawn to the echoing clap-popof a gunshot, and ran from theirbedroom to find their 12-year-oldson propped against the couch,eyes wide in pain, terror and sur-prise.

“It’s the real one. It’s the realone,” Max whispered, clutchinghis chest, seemingly astoundedthat a weapon resembling a toy, acheap-looking brown-and-blackpistol, could end his life in an in-stant.

But it did. Investigators in thiscity just south of San Diego arestill trying to determine exactlywhat happened on that Saturdaymorning in July — if the seventh-grader accidentally shot himself,or if his 15-year-old friend, who thepolice say had brought the weap-on into the apartment, dischargedit while showing it off.

What is certain is the kind ofweapon that killed Max. It was a“ghost gun.”

Ghost guns — untraceable fire-arms without serial numbers, as-sembled from components boughtonline — are increasingly becom-ing the lethal weapon of easy ac-cess for those legally barred frombuying or owning guns around thecountry. The criminal under-ground has long relied on stolenweapons with sanded-off serialnumbers, but ghost guns repre-sent a digital-age upgrade, and

they are especially prevalent incoastal blue states with strict fire-arm laws.

Nowhere is that truer than inCalifornia, where their prolifera-tion has reached epidemic propor-tions, according to local and fed-eral law enforcement officials inLos Angeles, Oakland, San Diegoand San Francisco. Over the last18 months, the officials said, ghostguns accounted for 25 to 50 per-cent of firearms recovered atcrime scenes. The vast majority ofsuspects caught with them werelegally prohibited from havingguns.

“I’ve been on the force for 30years next month, and I’ve neverseen anything like this,” said Lt.Paul Phillips of the San Diego Po-lice Department, who this year or-ganized the force’s first unit dedi-cated to homemade firearms. Bythe beginning of October, he said,the department had recovered al-most 400 ghost guns, about doublethe total for all of 2020 with nearlythree months to go in the year.

Law enforcement officials arenot exactly sure why their use istaking off. But they believe it is ba-sically a matter of a new, disrup-tive technology gradually gainingtraction in a market, then rocket-ing up when buyers catch on. Thisisn’t just happening on the WestCoast. Since January 2016, about25,000 privately made firearms

Firearm Kits Sold OnlineFuel Epidemic of Violence

Made With Untraceable Parts, ‘Ghost Guns’Find Their Way to Felons and Children

By GLENN THRUSH

Continued on Page A12

It’s just 60 miles from El DoradoDairy in Ontario, Calif., to the na-tion’s largest container port in LosAngeles. But the farm is having lit-tle luck getting its products onto aship headed for the foreign mar-kets that are crucial to its busi-ness.

The farm is part of one of the na-tion’s largest cooperatives, Cali-fornia Dairies Inc., which manu-factures milk powder for factoriesin Southeast Asia and Mexico thatuse it to make candy, baby formulaand other foods. The companytypically ships 50 million poundsof its milk powder and butter outof ports each month. But roughly60 percent of the company’s book-ings on outbound vessels havebeen canceled or deferred in re-cent months, resulting in about$45 million in missed revenue permonth.

“This is not just a problem, it’snot just an inconvenience, it’s cat-astrophic,” said Brad Anderson,the chief executive of CaliforniaDairies.

A supply chain crisis for im-ports has grabbed national head-lines and attracted the attention ofthe Biden administration, as shop-pers fret about securing gifts intime for the holidays and as strongconsumer demand for couches,electronics, toys and clothingpushes inflation to its highest lev-el in three decades.

Yet another crisis is also unfold-ing for American farm exports.

The same congestion at U.S.ports and shortage of truck driv-ers that have brought the flow ofsome goods to a halt have also leftfarmers struggling to get theircargo abroad and fulfill contractsbefore food supplies go bad. Shipsnow take weeks, rather than days,to unload at the ports, and backed-up shippers are so desperate to re-turn to Asia to pick up more goodsthat they often leave the UnitedStates with empty containersrather than wait for Americanfarmers to fill them up.

The National Milk ProducersFederation estimates that ship-ping disruptions have cost the

U.S. dairy industry nearly $1 bil-lion in the first half of the year interms of higher shipping and in-ventory costs, lost export volumeand price deterioration.

“Exports are a huge issue forthe U.S. right now,” said JasonParker, the head of global truckingand intermodal at Flexport, a lo-gistics company. “Getting exports

out of the country is actually hard-er than getting imports into thecountry.”

Agriculture accounts for aboutone-tenth of America’s goods ex-ports, and roughly 20 percent ofwhat U.S. farmers and ranchersproduce is sent abroad. The indus-try depends on an intricate chore-ography of refrigerated trucks,railcars, cargo ships and ware-houses that move fresh productsaround the globe, often seam-lessly and unnoticed.

U.S. farm exports have risen

Crunch at Ports Spells Trouble for U.S. FarmsBy ANA SWANSON

El Dorado Dairy in Ontario, Calif., is part of a cooperative thatmanufactures milk powder for factories in Asia and Mexico.

ADAM PEREZ FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Continued on Page A18

Ships Often Won’t Waitfor Export Cargo

WASHINGTON — A year be-fore the polls open in the 2022midterm elections, Republicansare already poised to flip at leastfive seats in the closely dividedHouse thanks to redrawn districtmaps that are more distorted,more disjointed and more gerry-mandered than any since the Vot-ing Rights Act was passed in 1965.

The rapidly forming congres-sional map, a quarter of which hastaken shape as districts are re-drawn this year, represents aneven more extreme warping ofAmerican political architecture,with state legislators in manyplaces moving aggressively to ce-ment their partisan dominance.

The flood of gerrymandering,carried out by both parties butpredominantly by Republicans, islikely to leave the country evermore divided by further erodingcompetitive elections and makingrepresentatives more beholden totheir party’s base.

At the same time, Republicans’upper hand in the redistrictingprocess, combined with plungingapproval ratings for President Bi-den and the Democratic Party,provides the party with whatcould be a nearly insurmountableadvantage in the 2022 midtermelections and the next decade ofHouse races.

“The floor for Republicans hasbeen raised,” Representative TomEmmer of Minnesota, the chair-man of House Republicans’ cam-paign committee, said in an inter-view. “Our incumbents actuallyare getting stronger districts.”

Congressional maps serve, per-haps more than ever before, as apredictor of which party will con-trol the House of Representatives,where Democrats now hold 221seats to Republicans’ 213. In the 12states that have completed themapping process, Republicans

Jagged MapsTilt Key RacesToward G.O.P.

By REID J. EPSTEINand NICK CORASANITI

Continued on Page A13

Over two weeks, an Afghan familysuffered loss after loss in suicide at-tacks on Shiite mosques. PAGE A4

INTERNATIONAL A4-9

Three Generations KilledVietnam, a crucial supplier of apparel,is short on labor as many employeesresist a return to factories. PAGE B1

BUSINESS B1-6

Vietnam’s Workers Stay AwayHanif Abdurraqib, a National BookAward finalist for “A Little Devil inAmerica,” has more projects to take onand more s’mores to research. PAGE C1

ARTS C1-6

Cutting Through the Noise

Victims are dying from their injuriesafter a fuel tanker explosion becausethe country has no burn units. PAGE A8

Blast Strains Sierra LeoneMeasuring the ratings giant and findingit lacking, TV companies are looking forother ways to count viewers. PAGE B1

Turning the Tables on Nielsen

Greg Bensinger PAGE A17

OPINION A16-17

St. John Bosco and Mater Dei highschools, 24 miles apart in SouthernCalifornia, don’t just funnel players tothe top college programs. Increasingly,they resemble them. PAGE D1

SPORTS D1-6

College Football’s Farm Teams

The women’s tennis tour asked for “afull and transparent investigation” afterPeng Shuai, one of its players, accusedZhang Gaoli, a former vice premier ofChina, of sexual assault. PAGE D2

WTA Urges China Inquiry

Sam Huff became the epitome of therough-and-tough football star with theGiants. He was 87. PAGE B7

OBITUARIES B7-8

Hall of Fame Linebacker

The borough’s influence grew in NewYork’s mayoral election, and may riseagain in the governor’s race. PAGE A15

Brooklyn’s Political Moment

Among the key moments: the defend-ant’s own testimony, and the words ofsomeone who thought that he, too, hadbeen shot by Mr. Rittenhouse. PAGE A10

NATIONAL A10-15, 18

6 Rittenhouse Trial Takeaways

Late Edition

VOL. CLXXI . . . . No. 59,243 © 2021 The New York Times Company NEW YORK, MONDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 2021

Today, cloudy, afternoon sunshine,becoming windy, chilly, high 49. To-night, patchy clouds, cold, low 37.Tomorrow, mostly sunny, still brisk,high 50. Weather map is on Page D6.

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