fsr 2009:02 26/11/2009. government support from the riksbank and the swedish national debt office to...

96
FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009

Upload: ada-carson

Post on 23-Dec-2015

218 views

Category:

Documents


1 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

FSR 2009:02

26/11/2009

Page 2: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to

financial institutions on the Swedish market

SEK, billion

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

okt-08

nov-08

dec-08

jan-09

feb-09

mar-09

apr-09

maj-09

jun-09

jul-09

aug-09

sep-09

okt-09

nov-09

dec-09

Issues in USD and euro guaranteed by the Swedish National Debt Office

Issues in SEK guaranteed by the Swedish National Debt Office

The Riksbank's USD lending (in SEK)

The Riksbank's SEK lending

Sources: the Riksbank and Swedish National Debt OfficeChart 1:1

Page 3: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Federal Reserve balance sheetUSD, billions

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

aug-07 dec-07 apr-08 aug-08 dec-08 apr-09 aug-09 dec-09

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Total assets (left scale) TAF (right scale)CPFF (right scale) Swap lines to other central banks (right scale)Other liquidity facilites (right scale)

Source: Federal ReserveChart 1:2

Page 4: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Three-month interbank rate minus expected policy rate

Basis points

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

jan-07 jul-07 jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10

US Euro area UK Sweden

Source: BloombergChart 1:3

Page 5: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Decomposition of the swedish basis spread

Basis points

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

jan-07 jul-07 jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10

Credit premium Liquidity premium

Source: The RiksbankChart 1:4

Page 6: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Outstanding volumes in US commercial paper

USD, billions

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

jan-05 jan-06 jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10

Non-financial commercial paperFinancial commercial paperAsset Backed Commercial Papers

Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:5

Page 7: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Outstanding volumes of Euro Commercial Paper

USD, billions

0

200

400

600

800

1000

jan-07 jan-08 jan-09

Source: EuroclearChart 1:6

Page 8: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Ten-year government bond yields in various countries

Per cent

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10

Germany France Spain Sweden US UK

Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:7

Page 9: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Issues of corporate bonds in US dollar

USD, Billions

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Investment grade corporate bonds High-yield corporate bonds

Source: SIFMAChart 1:8

Page 10: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Credit spreads for corporate bonds in the United States and euro area

Basis points

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10

AAA - euro area BBB - euro area Baa - US Aaa - US

Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:9

Page 11: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Credit spreads for high yield corporate bonds in the United States

and euro areaBasis points

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10

US Euro area

Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:10

Page 12: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Actual global default rate and forecast

Per cent

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12

Actual global default rate in October 2009 Forecast in May 2009

Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:11

Page 13: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Difference between mortgage bond yields and government bond yields

with two and five years maturity respectively

Basis points

0

50

100

150

200

250

jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10

5-year 2-year

Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the RiksbankChart 1:12

Page 14: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Premiums in the CDS indexBasis points

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10

North America - CDX Europe - iTraxx

Sources: Reuters EcoWin and BloombergChart 1:13

Page 15: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

U.S. securitization market issuance volumesUSD, billions

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009-Q1

2009-Q2

2009-Q3

MBS - Government sponsored agencies MBS - Non-government ABS CDO

Source: Securities Industry and Markets AssociationChart 1:14

Page 16: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Stock market developmentsIndex, 28 December 2007=100

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10

Sweden - OMXS30 United States - S&P 500 Europe - STOXX

Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:15

Page 17: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Implied stock market volatilityPer cent, 10 day moving average

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Sweden - OMX Europe, STOXX United States - S&P 500 Historical average, OMX

Source: BloombergChart 1:16

Page 18: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

P/E ratios

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

dec-93 dec-95 dec-97 dec-99 dec-01 dec-03 dec-05 dec-07 dec-09

Sweden - OMXS30 Europe - STOXX United States - S&P 500 Historical average, OMXS30, STOXX and S&P 500

Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:17

Page 19: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Swedish stress index

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2007 2008 2009 2010

Stress index TED spread Bond spread Equity volatility

Source: The RiksbankChart B1

Page 20: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

International stress index

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2007 2008 2009 2010

Stress index TED spread Bond spread Equity volatility

Source: The RiksbankChart B2

Page 21: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Do you consider that the financial crisis has peaked?

Per cent

Source: The RiksbankChart B3

Result spring 2009

Result autumn

2009

Yes

No

Don’t know

Yes

No

Don’t know

86%

5%9%

46%

35%

19%

Page 22: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

How has your propensity to take risk changed compared to six month ago?

Per cent

Source: The RiksbankChart B4

29%

20%

Result spring 2009 Result autumn 2009

Greatly increased

Increased

slightly

Neither increased or decreased

Decreased slightly

Greatly decreas

ed

32%

5%

52%

9%

34%

19%

7%

28%

12%

Greatly increased

Increased

slightlyNeither increased or decreased

Decreased slightly

Greatly decreased,

2%

Page 23: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

How has your institution’s buffer of liquid assets changed compared to six

month ago?Per cent

Source: The RiksbankChart B5

28%

12%

9%

29%

20%

20%

17%

13%

5%

28%

17%

Result spring 2009 Result autumn 2009

Don’t know

Don’t know

Greatly increased

Greatly increased

Increased

slightly

Increased

slightly

Neither increased or decreased

Neither increased or decreased

Decreased slightly

Decreased slightly

Greatly decreas

ed

Greatly decreased,

2%

Page 24: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Households' financial net wealth

Percentage of disposable income

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Source: Statistics SwedenChart 2:1

Page 25: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Households' nominal disposable income and saving ratio

Annual percentage change and percentage of disposable income

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

93 97 01 05 09

Households' disposable incomes Households' saving ratio

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:2

Page 26: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Households' total borrowing from credit institutionsAnnual percentage change

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

FSR 2009:2 FSR 2009:1

Source: The RiksbankChart 2:3

Page 27: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Consumer credit with housing as collateral, as

a percentage of disposable incomePer cent

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Sweden UK Australia

Sources: Reserve Bank of Australia, Reuters EcoWin, Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:4

Page 28: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Breakdown of households' new loans by fixed interest period

Per cent

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Variable rate Fixed rate < 5 years Fixed rate > 5 years

Source: The RiksbankChart 2:5

Page 29: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Households' debt and post-tax interest exependiturePercentage of disposable income

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

Debt ratio (left scale) Interest ratio (right scale)

Debt ratio FSR 2009:1 (left scale) Interest ratio FSR 2009:1 (right scale)

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:6

Page 30: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Households below the margin, impaired loans and potential loan

lossesPer cent

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(forecast)

2009(forecast)

2010(forecast)

Households below the margin Impaired loans Potential loan losses

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:7

Page 31: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Percentage of debt and assets held by indebted households in different

income groupsPer cent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Income group 1 Income group 2 Income group 3 Income group 4 Income group 5

Share of total debts Share of financial assets Share of real assets

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:8

Page 32: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

House prices in Sweden and the Stockholm, Göteborg and Malmö

regionsIndex, 1986 = 100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

Sweden Stockholm region Göteborg region Malmö region

Source: Statistics SwedenChart 2:9

Page 33: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Tenant-owned apartment prices, three-month moving average

SEK per square metre

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Sweden Stockholm regionGöteborg region Malmö regionSweden, excluding metropolitan areas

Source: www.maklarstatistik.seChart 2:10

Page 34: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Time to sale in SwedenNumber of days, median

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10

Single-family dwellings Tenant-owner apartments

Sources: Hemnet and www.maklarstatistik.seChart 2:11

Page 35: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Real house prices in Sweden and abroadIndex, 1995 = 100

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Sweden Denmark Finland UK Germany

Sources: The BIS, Reuters EcoWin and Statistics SwedenChart B6

Page 36: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Real house prices in Sweden and abroadIndex, 1995 = 100

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Sweden Norway Spain Ireland US Australia

Sources: Reuters EcoWin and Statisics SwedenChart B7

Page 37: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Household debt as percentage of disposable income

Per cent

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Sweden Norway Denmark Finland UKSpain US Australia

Sources: The BIS, national central banks, Reuters EcoWin and the RiksbankChart B8

Page 38: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Percentage of new borrowing with variable interest rates

Per cent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sweden Denmark UK Spain Ireland

2006 Q1 2009 Q1

Source: European Mortgage FederationChart B9

Page 39: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Housing investment in relation to GDP, seasonally-adjusted data

Per cent

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Sweden Norway Denmark UK Ireland Spain US Australia

Sources: Reuters EcoWin, Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart B10

Page 40: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Housing investments in relation to GDP, compared with changes in real

house pricesPer cent

US

Ireland

Spain

Denmark

UK

Norway

Australia

Sweden

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

-40-35-30-25-20-15-10-50Change in real houseprices

Max

(ho

usin

g in

vest

men

ts/G

DP)

Source: Reuters EcoWinChart B11

Page 41: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Change of mortgage rates compared with real house prices

Percentage and per cent

US

Sweden

AustraliaSpain

UK

Denmark

Ireland

-5,0

-4,5

-4,0

-3,5

-3,0

-2,5

-2,0

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

-40-35-30-25-20-15-10-50

Change in real house prices

Mor

tgag

e ra

te

Sources: European Mortgage Federation, Federal Reserve and Reserve Bank of AustraliaChart B12

Page 42: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Interest rate changes as of 31 March 2009 compared with 30 September

2008Percentage points

-5,0

-4,0

-3,0

-2,0

-1,0

0,0

Sweden Denmark UK Ireland Spain US Australia

Sources: Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland, Reserve Bank of Australia and Reuters EcoWin

Chart B13

Page 43: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Real house prices as a percentage of GDP

in constant pricesIndex, 2000 = 100

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Sweden Denmark UK Spain Ireland US Australia

Source: Reuters EcoWinChart B14

Page 44: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Profitability and debt/total assets ratio in Swedish listed companies

Per cent

0

3

6

9

12

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

50

55

60

65

70

Profitability (left scale) Debt/total assets ratio (right scale)

Sources: Bloomberg and the RiksbankChart 2:12

Page 45: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Interest coverage ratio in Swedish listed companies

Ratio

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Sources: Bloomberg and the RiksbankChart 2:13

Page 46: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Current ratio in Swedish listed companies

Per cent

100

120

140

160

180

200

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Sources: Bloomberg and the RiksbankChart 2:14

Page 47: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

The number of company bankruptcies broken down by

company sizeTwelve-month moving average

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

1-9 employees 10-49 employees All companies

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:15

Page 48: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Corporate borrowing form credit institutions and their securities

fundingSEK billion

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Swedish credit institutions Debt securities in Sweden Foreign credit institutionsDebt securities abroad Trade credits

Source: The RiksbankChart 2:16

Page 49: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Corporate borrowing from credit institutions and fixed gross

investmentAnnual percentage change

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Corporate borrowing from credit institutions Forecast borrowing FSR 2009:02Forecast borrowing FSR 2009:01 Gross fixed capital formation

Forecast investments, MPR October Forecast investments, FSR 2009:01

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:17

Page 50: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Corporate credit risk, outcome and forecast according to the Riksbank's

main scenarioPer cent

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Sources: Moody's KMV and the RiksbankChart 2:18

Page 51: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Transaction volumes on the Swedish commercial property market

SEK billion

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Swedish investors Foreign investors

Sources: Savills and the RiksbankChart 2:19

Page 52: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Prices for office premises in Sweden and abroad

Annual percentage change

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

dec-05 jun-06 dec-06 jun-07 dec-07 jun-08 dec-08 jun-09 dec-09

Sweden UK Ireland US

Sources: IPD, Reuters EcoWin, MIT Center for Real Estate, Newsec and the RiksbankChart 2:20

Page 53: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Real prices of office premises in city centres

Index, 1981 = 100

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09

Stockholm Göteborg Malmö

Sources: Newsec and the RiksbankChart 2:21

Page 54: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Average yield levels for modern office premises in city centres

Per cent

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

dec-85 dec-88 dec-91 dec-94 dec-97 dec-00 dec-03 dec-06 dec-09

Stockholm Göteborg Malmö Five-year government bond yield

Sources: Newsec and Reuters EcoWinChart 2:22

Page 55: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Real prices and rents of office premises in Stockholm city centre

Annual percentage change

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09

Prices Rents

Sources: Newsec and the RiksbankChart 2:23

Page 56: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Vacancy rate for office premises in city centres

Per cent

0

5

10

15

20

25

87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09

Stockholm Göteborg Malmö

Source: NewsecChart 2:24

Page 57: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Number of employed in the business sector

Annual percentage change

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Business sector Goods producers Services producers

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:25

Page 58: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Expected default frequency (EDF) and share prices for property

companiesIndex, January 2005 = 100 and per cent

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

jan-

05

jan-

06

jan-

07

jan-

08

jan-

09

jan-

10

0,0

0,3

0,6

0,9

1,2

1,5

1,8

CREX (left scale) OMXS (left scale) EDF (right scale)

'09'08'07'06'05

Sources: Moody's KMV Credit Edge, Reuters EcoWin and the RiksbankChart 2:26

Page 59: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

House pricesAnnual percentage change

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Germany Denmark Norway Finland Sweden

Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the BISChart 2:27

Page 60: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Companies borrowingsAnnual percentage change

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Germany Denmark Norway Finland Sweden

Sources: ECB and national statistics officesChart 2:28

Page 61: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Households' borrowingsAnnual percentage change

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Germany Denmark Norway Finland Sweden

Sources: ECB and national statistics officesChart 2:29

Page 62: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Expected default frequency for listed non-financial companies

Per cent

0

1

2

3

4

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Germany Denmark Norway Finland Sweden

Sources: Moody's KMV Credit Edge and the RiksbankChart 2:30

Page 63: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Corporate defaultsTwelve month moving average

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

04 05 06 07 08 09 10

0

200

400

600

800

Germany (left scale) Denmark (right scale) Norway (right scale)Finland (right scale) Sweden (right scale)

Sources: National statistics officesChart 2:31

Page 64: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

GDPAnnual percentage change

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Source: Reuters EcoWin Chart 2:32

Page 65: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Current accountPercentage of GDP

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

dec-00 dec-01 dec-02 dec-03 dec-04 dec-05 dec-06 dec-07 dec-08 dec-09

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:33

Page 66: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

UnemploymentPer cent

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Source: EurostatChart 2:34

Page 67: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Consumer confidence indicatorNet figures, per cent

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

jan-05 jan-06 jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Source: European CommissionChart 2:35

Page 68: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Real exchange rates for the Baltic countries

Index, 2000 = 100

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

dec-00 dec-01 dec-02 dec-03 dec-04 dec-05 dec-06 dec-07 dec-08 dec-09

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Source: The BISChart 2:36

Page 69: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Nominal wagesAnnual percentage change

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

dec-00 dec-01 dec-02 dec-03 dec-04 dec-05 dec-06 dec-07 dec-08 dec-09

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:37

Page 70: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Harmonised index for consumer prices

Annual percentage change

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:38

Page 71: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Household borrowingAnnual percentage change

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

jan-01 jan-02 jan-03 jan-04 jan-05 jan-06 jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10

Estonia Lativa Lithuania

Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:39

Page 72: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Corporate borrowingAnnual percentage change

-20

0

20

40

60

jan-01 jan-02 jan-03 jan-04 jan-05 jan-06 jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:40

Page 73: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Households' and companies' debt in realtion to GDP

Per cent

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Estonia Latvia Lithuania Sweden

Sources: National central banks and Reuters EcoWinChart 2:41

Page 74: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Late paymentsPer cent of outstanding loans

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

dec-

00

dec-

01

dec-

02

dec-

03

dec-

04

dec-

05

dec-

06

dec-

07

dec-

08

dec-

09

Estonia (more than 60 days) Latvia (more than 90 days) Lithuania (more than 60 days)

Sources: Eesti Pank, Financial and Capital Market Commission and Lietuvos BankasChart 2:42

Page 75: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

GDP in constant pricesAnnual percentage change

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Russia Ukraine

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook DB, Oct 09, Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts, Sep 09, the Riksbank

Chart 2:43

Page 76: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Bank borrowing in foreign and domestic currency in Ukraine

Per cent of nominal GDP

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Foreign currency Domestic currency

Sources: Reuters EcoWin, IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2009, and the RiksbankChart 2:44

Page 77: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Bank borrowing in foreign and domestic currency in Russia

Per cent of nominal GDP

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2006 2007 2008

Foreign currency Domestic currency

Sources: Reuters EcoWin, IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2009, and the RiksbankChart 2:45

Page 78: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

The banks' earningsSEK billion

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

sep 05 sep 06 sep 07 sep 08 sep 09

Net interest income Net commission incomeOperations at fair value Other income

Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:1

Page 79: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Lending per geographical area and borrower category, September 2009

Per cent of total lending

0

20

40

60

80

100

Sweden Other Nordiccountries

Baltic countries Other countries Total

Households Companies, excluding property companies Property companies

Sources: Banks reports and the RiksbankChart 3:2

Page 80: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Net interest income in relation to interest-bearing assets

Per cent

1,0

1,1

1,2

1,3

1,4

1,5

1,6

1,7

1,8

1,9

97:4 98:4 99:4 00:4 01:4 02:4 03:4 04:4 05:4 06:4 07:4 08:4 09:4

Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:3

Page 81: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

The major banks' securities-related commission income and turnover

and stock market indexIndex, 2003 Q1 = 100

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

03:1 04:1 05:1 06:1 07:1 08:1 09:1

Asset management-related income OMX index Turnover OMX Brokerage income

Sources: Bank reports, NASDAQ OMX and the RiksbankChart 3:4

Page 82: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

SEB Handelsbanken Nordea Swedbank

Loans to public Loans to credit institutions Debt securities Other assets

Allocation of total assetsPer cent, September 2009

Chart 3:5 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank

Page 83: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Market shares of lending in the Baltic countries

Per cent, September 2009

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Swedbank SEB Nordea Other

Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:6

Page 84: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

The major banks' loan lossesPercentage of lending

-0,6

-0,4

-0,2

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

00

:1

01

:1

02

:1

03

:1

04

:1

05

:1

06

:1

07

:1

08

:1

09

:1

Recoveries and reversals Realised and probable loan losses Loan losses

Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:7

Page 85: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Earnings before loan losses and loan losses (net) in the major banks

Summed up over four quarters, SEK billion, fixed prices, 30 September 2009

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

dec-90 dec-93 dec-96 dec-99 dec-02 dec-05 dec-08 dec-11

Profit before loan losses Loan losses, net Main scenario loan losses, net, FSR 2009:1

Sources: Bank reports, SME Direkt and the RiksbankChart 3:8

Page 86: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Distribution of loan losses per region in the period Q4 2009 to 2011

in the Riksbank's main scenario

SEK billion and per cent

2516%

2919%

3119%

149%

2818%

2919%

Sweden Nordic countries excluding SwedenEstonia LatviaLithuania Other countries

Source: The RiksbankChart 3:9

Page 87: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Total loan losses in the Riksbank's main scenario in relation to lending

Per cent

0

1

2

3

4

5

Handelsbanken Nordea SEB Swedbank Total

Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:10

Page 88: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

The core Tier 1 capital ratios of European banks, March 2009

Per cent

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Swedbank SEB

Nordea

SHB

Source: NomuraChart 3:11

Page 89: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Assets in relation to equityPer cent

Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:12

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

jun-04 jun-05 jun-06 jun-07 jun-08 jun-09

European banks Major Swedish banks

Page 90: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

The banks' sources of financing, September 2009

Per cent

3% 4%

46%

28%

6%

13%

Credit from the Riksbank

Government-guaranteedborrowing via the SwedishNational Debt OfficeInterbank, net

Covered bonds in SEK

Certificates

Deposits

Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:13

Page 91: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

The banks' deposits and lendingSEK billion

Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:14

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

mar-01 mar-02 mar-03 mar-04 mar-05 mar-06 mar-07 mar-08 mar-09 mar-10

Loans Deposits Deposit deficit

Page 92: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

The major bank with the lowest Tier 1 capital ratio after another Swedish major bank defaulted on payments

Per cent

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

dec-99 dec-00 dec-01 dec-02 dec-03 dec-04 dec-05 dec-06 dec-07 dec-08 dec-09

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Source: The RiksbankChart 3:15

Page 93: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

The bank's Tier 1 and core Tier 1 capital, actual and in the stress test

Per cent

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Handelsbanken Swedbank SEB Nordea

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2009 Kv 3 2009 Kv 4 2010 20112009 Kv 3 2009 Kv 4 2010 2011

Tier 1 capital ratioCore tier 1 capital ratio

Source: The RiksbankChart 3:16

Page 94: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Spread over swap for covered bonds in EUR, five years

Basis points

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

jun-07 dec-07 jun-08 dec-08 jun-09 dec-09

Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the RiksbankChart B15

Page 95: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

EUR/SEK cross currency basis spread,

five yearsBasis points

-10

0

10

20

30

40

dec-05 dec-06 dec-07 dec-08 dec-09

Source: BloombergChart B16

Page 96: FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

Money market basis spread (between 6 months EURIBOR and 3

months EURIBOR), five yearsBasis points

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

dec-05 dec-06 dec-07 dec-08 dec-09

Source: BloombergChart B17