frost sullivan global ev reported
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Frost & Sullivan Workshop:Global Mobility and Megacities
Presentation at the 2011 EDTA Conference and Annual Meeting
April 19, 2011
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Agenda for the day – EDTA Conference, April 19, 2011
• Presentation: Impact of Urbanization and Rise of Megacities on Vehicle and
Technology Planning 40 min
• Video BMW short films: 15 min
• Workshop Tools : Introduction 10 min
• Working session and brainstorm : Teams (5-6) to evaluate and analyze newopportunities and business models 20 min
• Team Presentations 30 min
• Summary 05 min
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Table of Contents
New Urban Mobility Business Models
New Product Development Opportunities and Impact of
Urbanization on Technology
Discussions
Overview of Mega and Smart Cities
Mega-trends to Impact the Automotive Industry
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Mega-trends to Impact the Automotive Industry
Urbanization Infrastructure Geo-socialization
New Business Models Power to the Middle Classand Gen Y
E-Mobility
Digital World (high speedbroadband, Wireless, etc) Health, Wellness and Well-being High Speed Rail
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Table of Contents
New Urban Mobility Business Models
New Product Development Opportunities and Impact of Urbanization on Technology
Discussions
Urbanization & Overview of Mega and Smart Cities
Mega-trends to Impact the Automotive Industry
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Three Main Trends in Urbanisation: Development of Mega Cities, Mega Regionsand Mega Corridors
MEGA CITYCity With A Minimum
Population Of 10 Million
EXAMPLE: Greater London
MEGA REGIONSCities Combining With Suburbs To
Form Regions. (Population over
10 Million)
EXAMPLE: Johannesburg andPretoria (forming
“Jo -Toria”)
MEGA CORRIDORSThe Corridors Connecting TwoMajor Cities or Mega Regions
EXAMPLE: Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou in China (Population
120 Million)
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1950s Urbanisation
2000s Suburbanisation
2015s Network City
2020s : Branded Cities
• Most offices moved to the first belt suburbs except non cost-sensitive activities: city centresbecoming shopping areas (small scale deliveries) for expensive goods and living areas for“double income, no kids” households.
cars needed to go to the working areas/malls outside first and second belt.• Industry offices moved out to the first belt area as also medium income families while
manufacturing facilities and low-medium income families relocated in the second and thirdbelt areas with logistics centres created on 2nd belt periphery.
• „Green wave‟ families living outside cities in outer suburban area. Hypermarkets and mallsmostly created inside the third belt low cost area (large scales deliveries).
cars needed to go from outer suburban areas to join the intermodal public transport andworking areas in third and second belt.
Urban sprawl, first highways and ring road
Creation of the historic centre and districts
Third suburban area and cities along the highwayscreated, ring road overblown by the urban sprawl
Living areasexpanding welloutside of the
peninsular loop inSan Francisco
Cities Globally Will Become Networked, Integrated and Branded -Polarization of Vehicle Sizes Is Creating Demand for EVs in Mega Cities
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Smart Cities – “Green” Replaced by “SMART” Concepts
„S”Governance
„S‟ City
Planning
„S‟Energy
„S‟ Business
„S‟ ICT
„S‟ Mobility
„S‟ Citizen
„S‟ Buildings
These 3 elements Will define the „Smart‟Mobility of the future
Smart Diamond to define Smart city
City‟s InfrastructureLegend: City‟s User community City‟s Green Ecology
„S‟ Energy Renewable energy, Smart Grid Infrastructure
„S„ City Planning EV Charging, Smart Grid, Bus Rapid Transit, Parking Infrastructure, CongestionCharging
„S‟ Information Communication & Technology Telematics, Navigation, Smart Metering, InternetTechnologies
Smart Cities Energy, City Planning and ICT to define the future of Mobility
S o u r c e :
F r o s
t &
S u
l l i v a n
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*****
P +R
SMART CITY CASE STUDY: Amsterdam - Ordering over 200 Leafsfrom Nissan with key objective to reduce Particulate Matter in City
SMART MOBILITY SMART LIVING SMART WORKING PLACE
SMART PUBLIC SPACE
• 39% commute by bicycle• 400+ Km of dedicated cycle
route• To familiarize electric bicycle
taxis
• 200 charging stations by 2012;• 10,000 EVs By 2015• Encourage car sharing
• Cheaper parking slots atpublic transit stations topark cars and board trains
• Utrechtsestraat – the popular narrowshopping street downtown is to featureenergy efficient street lighting,
• Sustainable tram stops with solarpowered displays and billboards
• Solar powered garbage bins with builtin compacters will be installed on thisstreet
• 1200 homes to feature smart metersand energy management systems.
• 14% reduction in energy use isexpected of this smart meter project
• ITO tower is testing the use of smartmeters and energy efficient appliances to
cut energy consumption.• Design aesthetics of building absorb
natural light and air from the environmentthereby keep artificial lighting and HVACuse to minimum.
SMART COMMUTE to WORK
• 25 MNCs have jointly signed to reducehome to work car miles by 10% by 2012.
• Incentive/free bicycles to employees• Free & protected bike parks at offices to
encourage cycle use.• Work from home if necessary
x • Yearly reduction of parkingspaces and increase of tariffsinside the city.
• 30 kmph speed limits on 80%of roads inside the city -makes bicycles faster by atleast 50% on a A-B trip.
• 154 shore power connectionsto charge inland cargo vesselsand river cruisers to beinstalled by 2012
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“Smart” Market Opportunity: Convergence of Technology Will Lead toConvergence of Competition
IT PlayersAutomation/Building
Control Players
Energy/InfrastructurePlayers
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
• IP Networks• Digital Technology• Analysis Software• Wireless Communication•
Technology Integration• Network Security• Etc.
•
T&D Technology• Power Electronics• Renewable Energy• Integrated Distribution Management• Substation Automation• AMI-Enabled Metering• Etc.
• Building Automation• Demand-Side Management• Connectivity of devices• Monitoring and Sensing•
Smart Grid Integration• Etc.
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Gen Y and the Rise of Middle Class
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North America Latin America,Caribbean and
Oceania
Europe Africa India China Rest of Asia
1.8
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2010 2020
6.83 Billion
7.55 Billion
World Population: Breakdown by Region (Global),
2020
P o p u
l a t i o
n (
b i l l i o
n )
1.
.6
.1
1.
0-14 Years 15-34 Years 35-64 Years 65 Years and Above
Note: Gen Y : Population between 15 – 34 Years Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and Depar tment of Economic and Social Affairs of the Uni ted Nations
Around 37% of this AgeGroup Will Live in Indiaand China Alone
World Population in 2020 : 2.56 Billion Population in Age Group 15to 34 – Important Customer of the Future for City Cars
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Generation Y: Goods and Services Catered to Values, Beliefs, Interest andLifestyle
Personalisation and
Individualisation
Techno Savvy andConnected 24 X 7
Civic andEnvironmentally
Friendly
Demanding andImpatient – “Fastand the Furious”
Personalised Search andNews
Social Networking Profiles
Personalised Products
Gaming Gizmos
Smart Phones
Facebook-on-the Move
Microblogs
Eco- Transport
Bag-For-Life (Paper BagsInstead of Plastic)
Paperless Banking
Instant Text Messaging
Instant Chat
Speed Oriented Gaming(Car Racing)
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Rise of the Middle Class in 2020: Over 1 Billion from India and China Alone
700 Million
15 Million
The middle class in China isdefined as households withan annual income between
$8,000 and $70,000
The middle class in India isdefined as households withan annual income between
$5,000 and $220,000
The middle class in Brazil isdefined as households withan annual income between
$586 and $2,530
120 Million
140 Million
The middle class in Russiais defined as householdswith an annual income
between $6000 and$30,000
400 Million
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Top 20 Megacities – Regional Transportation PoliciesCongestion , low emission zones and road user charging initiatives in the emergingeconomies will have a major impact on car mobility
Delhi Mumbai Beijing Shanghai Moscow Seoul New York London Tokyo
Bus RapidTransit Lanes 2011 2011
Metro/Subway 2011
CongestionCharging Planned Planned 2012 2012 Future Planned Future
Parking Cuts
Road useCharging/Ban Yes 1 Week
Day Ban1 weekDay Ban
1 WeekDay Ban* Future
EV/HybridIncentives
Bicycle Lanes
EmissionStandard Euro 4 Euro 4 Euro 4 Euro 4
Euro 3Euro 4 by
2012Euro 4
CAFÉ27.5mpg.34.1 mpgby 2016
Euro 4Euro 5 by
2011
25%reductionby 2015
Not planned Existing currently * Voluntary no road usage incentive Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Top 20 Megacities – Car Ownership Trend
Population(Million)
Per capita 2025(USD)
Cars per 1000 -2009
Cars per 1000 –
2025
Tokyo 38.5 46,494 353 340
New York 25.9 67,591 230 220
London 14.4 57,746 400 340
Mexico City 21.0 33,795 209 270
Shanghai 21.0 32,952 32 122
São Paulo 21.5 28,001 150 335
Buenos Aires 13.8 43,581 190 350
Mumbai 26.4 21,224 24 72
Beijing 20.0 25,000 35 155
Delhi 22.5 21,335 117 250
Moscow 14.5 42,759 307 475
Guangzhou 11.8 36,332 43 173
Seoul 9.7 43,860 239 320
Evolution of Megacities: Top 20 Megacities – Car Ownership Growth (Global), 2009 - 2025
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Overview of Mega and Smart Cities
Agenda
New Product Development Opportunities and Impact of Urbanization on Technology
Discussions
Key Trends in Urbanization
New Urban Mobility Business Models
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High Speed Rail to Come to USOverview of 13 high-speed rail corridors across 31 states.
Evolution of Megacities: High Speed Rain in U.S. (2009-2025)
California to connect BayArea with LA through anambitious $42bn programwith construction startingin 2 years
Impact to PersonalMobility and Auto
Industry
1. Air travel will diminishrapidly between thehigh speed rail linkcities
2. Train operators couldstart offeringintegrated transporte.g. Car sharing
3. Will take congestion off highways, people willdrive less long distance
4. Attractive cities for carsharing
5. Small city car sales willgrow in these cities
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Car Sharing in North America4.4 million members Forecast by 2016. Around 88% of NA Car Sharing Membersare in the United States across 26 Car Sharing Programs
Evolution of Megacities: Car Sharing in North America (US and Canada), 2009 - 2025
2016 Potential
More than $ 3.3 billion in revenues
More than 4.4 million members
More than 72,000 vehicles in car sharingSource: Frost & Sullivan
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Mobility Integrators (MI) – New Players Entering the MarketMIs to Offer Innovative mobility solutions to complement commuters’ inter -modality and multi-modality travel split
The Concept of a DynamicTransport SolutionIntegrating Different ModesUnder a Single Entity tomake PersonalTransportation Easy andSimple
MIs will start exploiting theWeb 2.0 and Mobile 2.0Internet service to offermobility-basedapplications (apps) on smartphones.
Source: Frost & Sullivan*The company logos mentioned are only for descriptive purpose
MobilityIntegrator
TransportOperators
Rail Bus
Car sharing
Bikes
TechnologySolutions Provider
WEB2.0
MOBILE2.0
Technology Evolution
TelecomOperators
Online MobilityBooking
Agencies:Long Distance Mobility
Short Distance Urban Mobility
PaymentEngine
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Case Study - Mu by Peugeot (Mobility Integration by OEM)Integrated Mobility On-demand Solutions Under One Roof
Evolution of Megacities: Case Study – Mu by Peugeot (Global), 2009
byPeugeotWeekendServices
TravelServices
DrivingBehaviorand Rewards
PersonalTransportSolutions
VehicleAccessories
Service Units
HiringUnits
Create an account to usethis scheme
Pay subscription chargesto get charging units
Working Concept
Hire services or productsbased on balance incharging units
Earn mobility (reward)points that can be used forselect services
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Partnering with travel agencies,driving schools amongst others.Booking services on train,airplane travel and hotels.Discounts, prizes and memberadvantages.
Decrease spendingby using the sameinfrastructure andstaff
Generateincome from thestock of vehiclessitting atdealerships
Micro-mobility solutions suchas bicycles and scooters.Rental cars and vans.Vehicle acces sories such asroof-boxes, cycle racks andchild seats.
Brest
Rennes
NantesLyon
Paris
Expected to be expanded in key EU citiesin 2010-2011
Bristol
London
Current Points of Sale
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New Urban Mobility Business Models
Overview of Mega and Smart Cities
Agenda
Discussions
Key Trends in Urbanization
New Product Development Opportunities and Impact of Urbanization on Technology
I F Th Will b Shif f Ci i D i d d
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In Future, There Will be Shift from Cities Designed aroundCars to Cars Designed around [Mega] Cities :OEMS to Develop New Vehicles and Platforms
• Megacity Vehicle – be launched in 2013.
• Electro-mobility – Zero emission vehicles (lithium ion battery with about 35 kWh capacity )
• Electric driveline - Electric motor for quicker acceleration and zip drive.
• Lighter drive – Carbon fiber-reinforced plastic (CFRP) passenger cell and aluminum chassis.
• Tata Nano to be launched as City Car in EU and NA (low cost car in India)• Compact Vehicle length and width: 3099mm x 1,495mm• Low emissions; sub 1 liter engine (624cc). Electric vehicle in future.• Turning radius: 4m.• Low vehicle weight: 600 kg (1,300lb)
• ‘City Cars’ – In sync with the city Multiple Variants – Pixo, Note and Cube• Compact Vehicle length and width : less than 4,000mm x 1,675mm• Low emissions: 1-litre engine, Electric vehicles in future• Tight turning circle of 4.5m and power assisted steering for easy maneuvering in city
traffic• Parking system, Start Stop system, Nissan Connect, foldable rear seats, customizable setting
Evolution of Megacities: City Cars (Global), 2009 - 2025
Logos are only for descriptive purpose. Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Characteristics of The Sub-A Segment
Technical Specification Sub-A Segment A-Segment
Reference Model
Gordon Murray
T.27
TATA Motors
Nano EV
Mitsubishi
i-MiEV
Length (mm) 2,500 3,090 3,475
Width (mm) 1,300 1,487 1,475
Height (mm) 1,600 1,585 1,610
Power Capacity (kW) 15-40 47
Seating Capacity (nos.) 1-4 4
Maximum Speed (kmph) 75-140 (Average Top Speed = 110) ~130
Maximum Driving Range (km) 100-160 (Average Driving Range = 130) ~160
Microcar Market: Characteristics of Sub-A Segment (Europe), 2010
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Impact on Vehicle Technology PlanningOpportunity for OEMs to Develop Technologies for Customers’ Unmet Needs
Evolution of Megacities: Impact on Vehicle Technology Planning (Global), 1950 - 2025
Ergonomically designedcomfortable seats for
long commuting hours
Turning radius <4.3m todrive in congested streets
Start Stop System forfrequent stop in traffic
Facebook on wheels,Internet in cars
3G/Wi-Fi Connectivity - V2Vand V2X communication
Limited boot spaceand more head and
leg room
CO2 less than 80gm/km vehicles
Lightweightconstruction
Panoramic roofs
Navigation systems withroute guidance and traffic
information
Customised andpersonalised comfortfunctions
Smart vehicleaccess
Low speed collisionavoidance for enhancedsafety and pedestrian
protectionSimple and easy to use
HMI
Vehicle length of
less than 3500mm
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Autonomous parkingassist
Voice recognitiontechnology
E M bili
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E-MobilityOver 40 Million Electric 2 Wheelers and 4 Wheelers will be Sold Annually Around theGlobe in 2020 and over 60% of these will be sold in Large Cities
Evolution of Megacities: E-Mobility (Global), 2009 - 2025
XM 3000 Electric Moped Sanyo Enable
The GEM Peapod The Smith Newton
Total 30 million –
2 Wheelers (2020)Total 10 Million –
4 Wheelers (2020)
Source: Frost & Sullivan
C t d M bilit
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Connected MobilitySmart Connectivity Between Home and Office and from Personal Device to Car withCloud Character will Become Increasingly Important in Car of the Future
Internet Radio
EV Infrastructure
Infotainment and Mobile Phone
Cloud Computing
Smarter Home
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Future IT Mobility Solutions for “Integrated” and “Interoperable”Transport Infrastructure:
Car Sharing : technology tolocate, reserve and unlock
nearest car on mobile,provide info via apps/GPS
Source: ETSI
CongestionCharging: technologymigration from ANPR –Tag& Beacon – GPS,
and advanced paymentand info on mobile
Connectivity : opportunity for built,bought & beamed in, providing a
hybrid open architecture service andnetwork comms
Commercial VehicleTelematics : Vehicle/driver
management, and on boardtracking, computer, navigation
V2V: ANPR, DSRC,vehicle positioning
EVs IT :grid/energy
management,billing systems,comms & cloud
RTI : Ticketing,scheduling, CCTV
and incidentmanagement,UTMC integration
SmartTicketing/AFC :
Innovative payment,integration with RTI
LMS: Signalling,infotainment,
diagnostics, energymanagement &GPS
Source: ETSI
M Cit A St
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Mega-City App StoreFrom Car Sharing to Diagnostics to EV’s, Apps for Cars are becoming a Value AddedDevelopment
Mobility Entertainment Vehicle Access/Security Telematics Electric Vehicles Navigation
Car Sharing –Choosing,
Reservationand locating
cars,
Car/VanPooling – car
and van poolingapps,
MultimodalTransport –apps for real
timebus/transit
Car SharingVehicle Access
Internet Radioe.g. Pandora,
RadioTime
IP TV – live tvusing internet,
eg. .SPB TV,
SocialNetworking –
e.g. Twitter,Facebook,
News – Onlineradio news,RSS feeds
reader
Vehicle Locator
Vehicle Access– convertingphone in tosmart key
Remote CarStarter/Security
Remote VehicleHorn/Light
Flash – SecurityApp,
EmergencyAssistance –
App
Real TimeVideo Traffic
Feeds
Diagnostics –TPMS,
service/oilnotifications,
IntegratedTelematics –
eCall/bCall/Tolling
State of ChargeMonitoring App
ChargingStation Locator
Interior Pre-Condition App
EV Billing
Turn by TurnNavigation
Dynamic POIFinder
Real timeTraffic
Information
3D Navigationwith VideoSupport
Evolution of Megacities: App store from Megacity Vehicles (Global), 1950 - 2025
S o u r c e :
F r o s
t &
S u
l l i v a n
F f U b M bili C l i d
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Future of Urban Mobility – Conclusions andRecommendations
Mega City vehicles will have new
“Urban”technologies
OEMs to developnew Mega Cityvehicles
Impact onPersonal Mobility
New integratedurban mobility
models willemerge including
car sharing
Over 30 Mega-cities, 110
Smart/SustainableCities and Mega
Corridors
More than 60%of the populationwill live in cities
by 2025Multimodal Mobility
E - Mobility
Small and Micro Mobility
Shared Mobility(Car Sharing/Pooling)
Last Mile Connectivity
New Technology in Cars(e.g. Internet Radio)
V2V & V2I Communication & Wireless Connectivity
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page 35Urban Mobility Tracker, Q1 report
Thank you!
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Agenda for the day – EDTA Conference, April 19, 2011
• Presentation: Impact of Urbanization and Rise of Megacities on Vehicle and
Technology Planning 40 min
• Video BMW short films: 15 min
• Workshop Tools : Introduction 10 min
• Working session and brainstorm : Teams (5-6) to evaluate and analyze new
opportunities and business models 20 min
• Team Presentations 30 min
• Summary 05 min
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Objectives of the Workshop
• Aim : Evaluate new business models and “out of box” businessopportunities for your industry in relation to MC & Future Mobility
• Methodology :
• Brainstorm within your group for 20 minutes using the Optopus
• Capture the results in a flip chart• Short-list 2 or 3 opportunities and use the Option Evaluation Grid
to conduct the scoring
• Nominate a leader to present your group findings
• Please present using “weather forecast” presentation tips (5minutes, top level and most relevant points)
The “OPTOPUS” (or Option Octopus) Brainstorming
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Market
Sectors Customer Segments
Geography
Divestment or
Outsource
Value Creation
Acquisition
Value Delivery
Alliance
OPTIONS
The OPTOPUS (or Option Octopus) – BrainstormingTool for Generation Strategic Market Opportunities
The “ OPTOPUS ” (or Option Octopus) –
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• The 8 „arms‟ of the Optopus:Geography – Options for growth via expansion into new geographical regionsMarket Sectors – Options for growth via expansion into new market sectorsDivestment/Outsource – Change of business direction (e.g. outsourcing production)Acquisition – Options for growth via merger or acquisition activitiesAlliance – Options for growth via implementation of strategic alliances/partnershipsValue Delivery – Growth via the development of new channels to marketValue Creation – Growth via the provision of additional services etc. (up-sell/cross-sell)
Customer Segments – Options for growth via targeting new customers or applications
The Option Octopus (Optopus) is a tool to provide a more structured approach to the brainstorming ofstrategic options. The Optopus assumes that there are 8 main categories of growth option into which any
ideas can be mapped.As such, the Optopus enables the mapping of options under the 8 key headings and is therefore a simpleframework around which growth options can be brainstormed and listed.
The OPTOPUS (or Option Octopus) Brainstorming Tool
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Strategic Option Grid - Tool for Evaluating Options
StrategicAttractiveness
Financial
AttractivenessImplementation
DifficultyUncertainty
and RiskAcceptability toStakeholders
Options
Criteria
Option1 Option 2 Option 3
The Strategic Options Grid is a detailed tool that is ideal for analyzing and prioritizing mutually exclusive strategic options.This tool assumes that the overall strategic attractiveness of an option can be evaluated by looking at 5 distinct variables: market attractiveness;
financial attractiveness; implementation difficulty; risk/uncertainty; and strategic fit/stakeholder attractiveness.
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BMW Films - Mobility
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Contacts
Robert DuronioConsulting DirectorAutomotive & TransportationP: 703.870.5801Email: [email protected]
Brian DrakeDirector, Business DevelopmentAutomotive & TransportationP: 248.836.8260
Email: [email protected]