frontiers of technology[1]

8/6/2019 Frontiers of Technology[1]

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Boomers: The Next 20

Years is a three-phas

stdy f hw baby

bmers will age ve

the cming decades.

The rst phase mapp

bmers’ 20-year

hrizn, identifying

seven big stries that

will shape their ftre

The secnd phase waan ethngraphic std

of boomers to dene

ten Actin Types that

help s nderstand h

different bmers wil

make different chice

as they cnfrnt the

challenges f the ft

The nal phase uses

these insights t crea

fcsed frecasts f bmers’ wrld.

Technology and Independence The tension between autonomy and community is a

deep one in Ameican cultue. Boomes’ lives have

been dened by this tension between individuality

and self-sufciency on one hand and the desire to

ceate and enjoy community on the othe. Now they

face this tension with the technologies that can

suppot them as they age.

The combination of pesonal computes and the

Intenet has put enomous powe in the hands of

individuals. As entepeneus, millions of boomes

have made use of these low-cost esouces

to launch new businesses. As consumes,

boomes have actively used online tools to

access infomation and helped to ceate a vibant

inteactive maketplace that cates to thei needs.

As they age, boomes will utilize technologies

to etain autonomy ove thei own bodies, thei

mobility, and thei lives. They will be paticulaly

attuned to tools that suppot self-help and that

enable extended capacity.

Technology and Community While technology can isolate individuals fompeson-to-peson contact, the ise of new social

media epesents a poweful counte-tend.

Technology is allowing people to connect,

communicate, and collaboate in new ways, locally

and globally. As boomes each late life, they will

inevitably nd themselves in need of support from

othes, and technology pesents new oppotunities

to help meet this need. They will connect and

econnect with multiple geneations of thei families

and with fiends, pofessionals, and stanges

with common inteests. This aea is ife with

oppotunities to facilitate these inteactions.

Healthspan: Promises and Costs Pehaps in no othe aea has technology had as

pofound an effect as in health cae. It has been

the souce of damatic advances in the diagnosis,

pevention, and teatment of many illnesses and

has contibuted geatly to the extension of life

expectancy fo Ameicans in the 20th centuy. At

the same time, the “technological teadmill” has

been a majo contibuto to the steady gowth in

health cae expenditues, which now account fo

fully 16% of GDP and have been pojected to each

20% of GDP by 2016 .

If anything, the pace of change in health cae is

likely to acceleate futhe as we begin to see

the full impact of advances in biotech, genetic

medicine, and stem cell and digital technologies.

Fo example, applications of genomics ae making

possible the advent of tuly individualized medical

teatments, while emeging mobile technologies

offe the pospect fo deliveing cae wheneve and

wheeve it is needed and to impove management

of chonic diseases.

The geat question is whethe these innovations

will futhe exacebate the cisis of affodability in

health cae o will help contol costs and impove

efciency in health care services. The perception

of these innovations is also key: they un the isk

of being seen as intusive options that impinge

on pivacy and pesonal autonomy, despite thei

capacity to suppot extended independence.

Bmers will cntine t pineer distinctive ses f technlgies and adpt new technlgical innvatins that meet their needs

as they reach later life.

Boomers have been inuenced by successive waves of technology throughout their l ives. As they grew up, they were shaped

psychologically by the threat of mutually assured destruction and the promise of the space race. Boomers were the rst generation

t grw p as part f a mass televisin adience, inclcated int pplar cltre frm early childhd. This generatin als

experienced the emergence f ther media inclding the transistr radi, cable TV, VCRs, and, mre recently, mbile phnes. Living

in the era f Mre’s Law, bmers have cme t expect that digital technlgies will cntine t becme steadily smaller, mre

pwerfl and cheaper. The effects f technlgy have permeated many areas f their lives. They have participated in blrring the lin

between media cnsmers and media prdcers, and pineered the persnalizatin f technlgy fr wrk and fr play.

Given their familiarity with adpting and adapting t new technlgies, bmers will srely be less technlgically cnservative as they age than

previs chrts. Their sheer nmbers will spr innvatins that spprt an aging pplatin. Bmers will als craft distinctive ses fr new

technlgies and media: their mdes f participatin will be different frm thse f ynger chrts, bt will interact dynamically with them.

Distinctive Frontiers o Technology Bmers: The Next 20 Years



Boomer V i ew poi nt s

Learning On The JobEven boomes who ae not natual ealy adoptes ae likely

to have been exposed to new technologies at the wokplace.

Computes have become pevasive in the wok envionment

and at least minimal compute liteacy is now a equiement

fo many jobs. And as moe and moe esouces move online,

the benets of being on the Web have grown more compelling,poviding boomes with geate incentives fo getting online.

“When I rst was hired [there was no Internet] as far

as we were cncerned. Bt r wrk envirnment

has changed incredibly ver the last 10 years, and

we’ve learned by the seat f r pants.”

—Ssan P., librarian, age 56

“I’m nt t cmpter literate, except fr what I d n

my jb. And the kids at wrk helped me manever and

nd what I needed. There’s a lot of resources out there.

Nt being cmpter literate and nt having a cmpter

at hme, I have had t depend n my time at wrk t

se the tl. Bt the peple at wrk helped—they taght

me hw t Ggle. I had never dne that befre.”

—Mary F., call center wrker, age 59

“Think abt what transprtatin was like in the1800s. It wld take days t get n a hrse and

carriage to go to Seattle. So you [would] live in

yr little twn and never knw anybdy ther than

the peple in yr little twn. Well, I cnverse with

peple n the ther side f the planet. It’s amazing,

and I think it’s brght the whle wrld tgether.”

—Steve B., Web site manager, age 46

“I will always cntine t learn. I dn’t see myself as

not ever [not] learning something new. The Internet

and everything is still evlving, and I imagine that I

will cntine t evlve with it.”

—Cindy E., Web site wrker, age 47

“Lots of times I go online to nd things [for my

mother]. She doesn’t have access or know how to

d smething like that, s that’s a big help, becase

I can nd a lot of stuff out online . . . I went on to see

abt hw t apply fr scial secrity. Then I lked

at the differences in mtal fnds verss stcks[and] what the interest rates are on CDs.”

—Barbara J

Bsiness manager and part-time bartender, age 46

Helping Others In many cases, boomes have been the pionees in thei

families in leaning about and adopting new technologies. To

the degee that pevious geneations have not felt the need to

lean about computes, thei boome childen have taken on the

esponsibility fo accessing infomation and sevices fo them.

Embracing Change Many boomes ae keenly awae of the scope of changes

bought by technology in the elatively ecent past and

appreciate the benets offered by technology. They realize that

activities they take fo ganted today would have seemed like

science ction to their grandparents. And they look forward to

equally fa-eaching changes that will continue to occu fo the

emainde of thei lives and beyond.



Th e W

or l d Th e y Face

A nmber f pwerfl external trends will shape

the wrld that bmers will live in as they age.

New Cognitive Horizons Today, moe than half of all adults ove the age of 85

suffe fom some degee of mental handicap, anging

fom mild cognitive impaiment to late-stage Alzheime’s

Disease. At the same time, neuological eseach,

cognitive enhancements and new measues of intelligenceae boadening the spectum of cognitive expeience.

In addition to phamaceutical eseach, pogams on

computes and pesonal devices pomise to do fo

cognitive tness what exercise equipment has done for

physical tness.

QuESTIoNS: Hw will bmers respnd t the

cognitive effects of aging? How much inuence

d they actally have ver their cgnitive health in

later life?

Amplifed Individuals Human eality is being ecast in fundamental ways.

Individuals ae able to extend thei biological capacities

with poweful new dugs and devices, and thei

individual expressions are amplied and enhanced

in an extended digital wold. With the emegence of

technologies that can povide bette-than-nomal

pefomance, the wold of people with disabilities is

becoming an active zone of innovation that offes

potential benets for everyone. Boomers will benet

fom and contibute to this innovation as they get olde

and expeience geate physical challenges and chonic

health poblems.

QuESTIoNS: Hw mch risk are bmers willing t

accept in experimenting with new and nrthdx

appraches t maintaining their health? Hw

sccessfl will they be in extending their capacity

t remain active and independent? Will these

enhancement technlgies be seen as lxries fr

the afuent or mainstream applications that should

be available t everyne?

Open Innovation The powe of collaboative, non-popietay development

was rst demonstrated in the world of software where

open-souce softwae (e.g., Linux and Fiefox) and

esouces (e.g., Caigslist and Wikipedia) have shown

that this altenate model can ceate highly obust and

valuable poducts. This appoach has now spead

to othe aeas such as education (open cousewae),

phamaceuticals, and consume poducts, and is likely tobecome an even moe impotant souce of innovation in

the futue.

QuESTIoNS: Hw will these new mdes f

develpment and prdctin impact the cst

f critical gds and services? Hw readily will

bmers, raised with idealistic expectatins bt

als imbed with cmpetitive, capitalistic vales,

adpt this new paradigm? T what extent will they

participate in pen, cllabrative develpment f

new prdcts that meet their distinctive needs?

Massively Rich Inormation Environments

Inceasingly ubiquitous senso netwoks ae poviding

the foundation fo an emeging infastuctue that will

be able to monito the wold fom the smallest to the

lagest scales. These may be self-oganizing netwoks

of tiny sensos that monito pesonal health and local

envionmental conditions. O they may be lage-scale

platfoms of sensos that use common potocols to

suppot boad suveillance pogams. Fo example, theNational Science Foundation has funded ceation of the

National Ecological Obsevatoy Netwok (NEON) that

will cove the United States to collect data about the

impact of uban development, the spead of invasive

species and infectious diseases, and climate change on

a national scale. These kinds of esouces will povide

poweful new tools fo decision-making but will also

raise difcult questions about what information will be

collected and who will contol access to it.

QuESTIoNS: Hw will these new envirnments

balance the tensin between the prspect f

empwerment and cncern abt intrsiveness?Hw will the availability f entirely new types f

infrmatin abt daily life and envirnmental

cnditins impact bmers’ decisin-making?



HDTV launched; Toyota Pius; iPhone

intoduced; Facebook; YouTube founded2005-09 ages 40–59

Hydogen bomb developed; Univac

(rst commercial computer) introduced;

tansisto adio invented

1950-54

DNA stuctue discoveed; polio vaccine

developed; Sputnik launched1955-59 ages 0–9

ICBMs; colo TV; bith contol pill made

widely available; lase invented1960-64

Moon landing; rst mini-computer; rst

handheld calculator introduced; rst

human heat tansplant; LSD use speads

1965-69 ages 0–19

ArPANET (pecuso to Intenet)

launched; rst barcoded products

intoduced

1970-74

Cay-1 supecompute ceated; Micosoft

founded; Betamax home VCr intoduced;

Concode entes sevice

1975-79 ages 10–29

Space Shuttle launched; Sony Walkman,

IBM PC intoduced; CNN begins; Apple

Macintosh compute

1980-84

Fist mobile cell phone; Challenge

disaste1985-89 ages 20-39

Netscape bowse intoduced; Hubble

Telescope launched1990-94

Dolly the sheep cloned; Google founded;Viaga ceated1995-99 ages 30–49

Atomic bomb developed; TV commecially

available1945-49

Nanotech emeges;TiVo, iPod intoduced;

Human genome decoded2000-04

Timeline o New Technologies in Boomers’ Lives



Th e F

or ecas t s

Connecting Anywhere, Anytime Boomes will adopt technologies fo accessing esouces and fo connecting with othes wheeve they ae. Fo some this

is a puposeful stategy to esequence thei life stages, while fo othes it is meely a new mediation of a taditional ole they

appreciate and seek to ll. Digital reputation and strong ties of kinship over distance are powerful forms of wealth generation.

Resrces g virtal

The powe of computing esouces aleady available to individuals is aleadysubstantial and will gow even lage in the nea futue. Befoe long, the

ability of individuals to tap the equivalent powe of today’s supecomputes

will be widespead. At the same time, today’s limits on bandwidth will soon

seem quaint. (In Japan, typical household boadband sevices cuently offe

download speeds of 60 MBPS, compaed to about 5 MBPS in the United

States.) The esult will be the emegence of applications that will povide

easy access to a gowing ange of esouces that will lessen boomes’

dependence on existing institutions. Fo example, as wok is decoupled fom

physical wokplaces, boomes will have geate oppotunities to keep woking while pusuing pesonal goals.

Caol.com is designed to tansfom the health cae industy though the ceation of a tue maketplace in which consumes can

compae health cae sevices, pactitione cedentials, quality dimensions, and costs. The sevice is cuently available to esidents of

Minneapolis and St. Paul, MN.

Accessing health care everywhere

New technologies ae making it possible to delive health cae wheeve patients ae and at

times that ae most convenient fo them. Inceasingly intelligent mobile devices connected to

inceasingly smalle and moe sophisticated sensos ae making it possible to povide ongoing

monitoing of a wide ange of vital functions. Coupled with emeging technologies fo

“behavioal telehealth,” these devices will povide a new platfom to help boomes bette

manage the chonic diseases that they will develop in late life. While cuent applications ae

focused on specic health problems, future technologies will provide a broad platform for

mobile health management.

3G Docto is a U.K. stat up that allows patients to have a live two-way consultation with a physician

ove a video-enabled mobile phone. The sevice is tied to an online health ecod to facilitate diagnosis.

Lifelng learning: frm K t gray

In an infomation society, no ability is moe valuable than the ability to lean. And

the impotance of leaning does not stop with the end of fomal schooling. Moe

than 92 million adults take at least one “wok elated” o “pesonal inteest” class,

and one-thid of them use some fom of distance education.1 As online education

becomes iche and moe pevasive, boomes will make use of it to lean new skills

to emain employable o fo e-caeeing and to lean about topics that ae of

inteest to them.

Ed2Go povides online couses fo moe than 1,600 U.S. colleges and univesities. Moe

than one million students have taken ed2go couses, and 42% of them ae ove the age

of 48. The company is now embaked on an initiative to attact moe olde leanes.



Th e F

or ecas t s

Supporting Peers, Forging Communities While studies typically nd that boomer’s participation in social media is low compared to other cohorts, they often overlook the

pace at which thei paticipation is gowing.2

Boomes will haness many of these tools and ones yet to emege to facilitate taking cae of themselves and each othe. They

ae foging connections not only with othe boomes but with othe cohots as well aound common causes of business,

cafts, health, and family.

Mlti-generatin netwrked families

In an inceasingly mobile wold, it is not uncommon fo families to become widely

sepaated geogaphically, with boomes’ childen and gandchilden living acoss

the county o even in distant counties. But communications technologies such

as email, instant messaging, and mobile and Intenet-based video-telephony ae

allowing families to emain closely connected though fequent communications.

As the costs of long distance communications appoach zeo, it will become

inceasingly easy fo widely sepaated family membes to shae even small details

of daily life. (It has been said that being able to get pictues of gandkids is the

kille online application fo many olde adults.)

Kindo is a U.K.-based company that povides families with pivate spaces whee they can communicate with each othe and shae

genealogical infomation about ancestos. The company has been descibed as a “Facebook fo Families.”

Entrepreners nline

In his book Free Agent Nation, Daniel Pink intoduces the concept of “E-tiement,” which he

denes as the use of technology to permit retirees to continue working while enjoying the

feedom to tavel and to live wheeve they wish. In fact, a lage popotion of eBay selles ae

olde adults: a 2005 epot fom eBay indicated that 50% of eBay selles ae ove the age of

45, and 22% ae 55 and olde.3 Expect Boomes to ely heavily on technology, including

options that suppot emote wok and distance leaning, to help them emain employed and

employable as they each late life. Fo example, Tudy Klein, 58, in the rocky Mountain aea,

has tuned he pesonal passion fo wellness into entepeneuship as a netwok makete and

pesonal coach in wellness and nutition poducts. She sells and engages actively with online

communities aound he business with people acoss age goups and all ove the wold.

Bilding bmer enclaves

Thee have been a fai numbe of attempts to ceate online communities fo Boomes

and fo senios: SenioNet, the ealiest of these, actually began in the late 1980s (as a

pe-Intenet sevice unning on a text-only bulletin boad) and still is active moe than 20

yeas late. Newe ventues aimed at Boomes include Thid Age.com, Eons, Boomj,

and TeeBeeDee. None have been huge successes, and the question emains whethe

simply being a member of the Boomer generation is a sufciently compelling identity to

attact a lage numbe of uses (it is also tue that attempts to ceate an “AArP fo BabyBoomes” have not succeeded). Moe likely to be successful ae niche communities

that focus on the common interests of specic groups of Boomers such as health

issues, politics, pesonal elationships, tavel. Still open is the question of whethe these

will be fee-standing communities o sub-goups of lage social netwoks such as

Facebook, which is attacting a gowing numbe of olde paticipants.

SenioNet, the longest-unning online community fo olde adults, has been opeating fo moe than 20 yeas and still is quite active.



Th e F

or ecas t s

1. Crafting an Envirnment: A blend of equal

measues of ceativity and contol in these boomes

dives a focus on cafting thei pesonal wolds—

and expessing themselves though thei cafts.

2. Aging Sstainably: Aging Sustainably means

undestanding the impotance of balance between

homes and environments, retirement and nances,

and elationships and legacies.

3. Frging Family: Fo these boomes who focus

on foging and maintaining intimate family bonds,

family is not just a given; it is something they have

discoveed and woked fo though advesity.

4. Serving Faithflly: As a cental pecept of thei

lives moving fowad, these boomes follow thei

faith into sevice to othes. Though sevice, they

ceate value fo thei communities, thei pees, and

to themselves.

5. Reinventing the Self: In a constantly changing

wold, these boomes adapt by emaking thei

bodies, inteests, and skill sets—pepetual

einvention.

6. Rebilding a Life: After experiencing signicant

setbacks, these boomes have designed new paths

that may be quite diffeent fom anything they had

anticipated o planned but offe oppotunities fo

nding satisfaction in unexpected places.

7. Pwering Thrgh: What constitutes success

may diffe, but these boomes ae all about

success. Their goals are clearly dened and they’re

detemined to achieve them and set new ones to

pusue.

8. Lst in Transitin: In dealing with unexpected

poblems, these boomes have lost faith in the goals

that motivated them. They ae stuggling to ceatea new famewok that will povide secuity and

satisfaction.

9. Still Qesting: Wok identity dives these boomes,

an identity still moe in the making than fo most.

In thei quest fo something in thei futues, they

actively distance themselves fom thei pasts.

10. Cming Hme: retuning to the childhood home

gives meaning to these boomes. With an instinct

fo feedom, they ae now exploing values of

commitment, cae giving, and comfot.

Boomer Action Types :

About the Project:

Baby boomes ae pehaps the most widely studied geneation in United States histoy. Eveything about this goup has

been the subject of scutiny: thei shopping behavio, media pefeences, living aangements, politics, and moe ecently,

their views of retirement and needs for nancial planning. Most of these research studies aim to dene current attitudes and

segment a maket that dominates by its shee size. Few eseach effots, howeve, take a longe view.

How will baby boomes live out thei lives ove the next two decades—decades when the wold will come to gips with

unpecedented challenges and innovations? How will they navigate new ecologies of isk, highly politicized foodscapes,emeging sustainability pactices, a enaissance of civil society, and a continuing pesonalization of faith? Bmers: The

Next 20 Years seeks to answe these questions.

This project has developed a set of Boomer Action Types: ten different modes of decision-making that dene boomers’

stategies fo seeking meaning and satisfaction in thei lives. These Action Types offe impotant clues to boomes’ oientation

towad the futue.

This reprt was prdced by Institte fr the Ftre in cllabratin with AARP.

SouRCES:

1. Souce: NCES 2004–05 Adult Leaning repot.

2. Souce: Steven King, http://genylabs.typepad.com/small_biz_labs/2008/06/boomes-and-soc.html

3. Souce: www.20plus30.com/blog/2005/10/demogaphics-of-ebay-uses.html

SR-1173 | © 2008 Institute fo the Futue. All ights eseved. repoduction is pohibited without

witten pemission.

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