From Task CL-02 to a GEO FLAGSHIP

on Sustainable Global Carbon and GHG Observations and AnalysisAntonio Bombelli, Werner Kutsch and Alex Vermeulen

IG3IS GCPCEOS

ICOSJapanflux

NEON

GAW

OTHERS!

IAGOS

SOCAtARGOICOS

OTHERS!

ICOS

From Task CL-02 to a GEO FLAGSHIP

on Sustainable Global Carbon and GHG Observations and AnalysisAntonio Bombelli, Werner Kutsch and Alex Vermeulen

Emissions

Sinks

What information and knowledge is needed?Not all the emissions remain into the atmosphere:

ocean & land sinks “discount”

We do not know how these 3 systems will behave in the future, in a changing climate

WHY a Carbon FLAGSHIP?

To provide scientists and decision makers with

i) More, quality-improved and standardized data and

ii) reliable information

to better understand carbon cycle and better address climate policies.

Policy relevant use of carbon data and information:

1. Determine feasible and effective emission reduction pathways 2. Verify the effectiveness of mitigation policies, independent verification necessary to meet the objectives of future climate treaties.3. Determine the baselines of carbon pools and fluxes.4. Improve the ability to predict future changes 5. Science-based development and review of adaptation actions.

Observations Services Decisions

The FLAGSHIP will include and link all along the value chain

Data sharingData management (incl. metadata)

Capacity building

Improve data harmonizationImprove inter-operabilityImprove data accessibility

(from indiv. infrastructures to GEOSS)

From data to knowledge

Model-Data Fusion projects

Sustainability

The Carbon FLAGSHIP - foundational elements to be effective:- Openness and inclusiveness: involve all relevant players- Not a new level of coordination, but a common frame to work together- Integration & Interoperability- Capacity building- To be global!

Identifying observational gaps

Final aim:

Global, integrated, comprehensive, financially sustaining, long-term observational system for carbon cycle and GHGs providing data for scientists and knowledge for policy makers and society.

The path to this aim:

2015/2016 construction of the community as a ”candidate flagship”

• Infrastructures, networks, integration initiatives• Members, Participating Organisations in GEO• Private Sector• Interim Steering Board• Interim Coordinator• Commitments for resources (the good news: there are already some seeds)• Refining of overall concept

2017 – 2019 first workplan

Thank you for your attention!

$, €, ¥, £ .

Costs of climate change

Costs of mitigation

Uncertainty

Reduced uncertainty

Money invested in observation system to reduce uncertainty

Primarybenefit

Money saved by reducing

uncertainty

Relation Maturity: services are partly operationalRessourcesNext steps:

2016 construction of the community as a ”candidate flagship”

• Members, Participating Organisations, Private Sector• Dedicated Steering Board• Coordinator• Refining of overall concept

2017 – 2019 first workplan

Foundational Tasks

9 UN Conventions : UNFCCC, (sustainable data source for IPCC)13 Monitoring and Evaluation15 Capacity building coordination

ADDITIONAL SLIDES

This is from GCPIt looked nicer than IPCC

Expected value

C-flux from deforestation

Prob

abili

ty

Over-compliance to ensure that target is met

Reduced Error(Courtesy of I. McCallum)

Uncertainty (and cost!) reduction due to an advanced Global Carbon Observing System(REDD example)

Current situation:not adequate enough observing systemhigh uncertainty in the emission estimates high overcompliance to meet the targethigh cost! Required situation: improved observing systemreduced uncertainty in the estimatesless overcompliance to meet the targetreduced cost!

(GEOCARBON Benefit assessment by emissions reductions by avoiding deforestation)

Benefit Assessment of Improved Carbon Monitoring

(From: http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu)

The pre-industrial (1750) atmospheric concentration was around 277ppm.This increased to around 400ppm in 2014 (+ 44%).

We know well the past