from oil-based technology and economy – prospects for the future danish technology council and...
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From Oil-based Technology and Economy – Prospects for the FutureDanish Technology Council and IDA, March 2004 (Author Klaus Illum)
FromMatthew R. Simmons:Twilight in the Desert.The Coming Saudi OilShock and the WorldEconomy. (2005)
Production from Danish North Sea fields. Danish Energy Authority 2002 and 2005
In Oil-based Tecnology and Economy – Prospects for the FutureThe Danish Technology Council and IDA, March 2004. (Author Klaus Illum)
Scenario S1Implications of the assumption made in the WEO2004 Reference Scenario
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'2002' '2007' '2012' '2017' '2022' '2027' '2032' '2037' '2042' '2047' '2052'
Gb
/yea
r
'Demand ' 'Prod.total ' 'Conv.prod.exist ' 'Non-conv.prognos. '
'Conv.prod.new ' 'New findings ' 'Non-conv.requir. '
"Demand"
Total production
Production from exist. conv. reserves
Production from new conv. reserves
Reserve additions (conv.)
Non-conv. production. Forecast
Non-conv. ProductionRequired
Demand growth 1.6% per year
Ultimate reserves (conv.): 2855 Gb
Reserve additions (conv.): 20 Gb/year (first years)
Scenario S1
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'2002' '2007' '2012' '2017' '2022' '2027' '2032' '2037' '2042' '2047' '2052'
Mb
/day
'Middle.East ' 'FSU ' 'Latin.America ' 'Africa '
'North.America ' 'Europe ' 'Asia ' 'Other '
'New conv.capacity ' 'Non-conv.capac.prog ' 'Non-conv.capac.req '
New conv. capacityAll regions Non-conv.
capacityRequired
Non-conv. capacityForecast
Middle EastExist. reserves
Implications of the assumptions made in the WEO2004 Reference Scenario
Production capacity by region
Scenario S2
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'2002' '2007' '2012' '2017' '2022' '2027' '2032' '2037' '2042' '2047' '2052'
Gb
/yea
r
'Demand ' 'Prod.total ' 'Conv.prod.exist ' 'Non-conv.prognos. '
'Conv.prod.new ' 'New findings ' 'Non-conv.requir. '
"Demand"
Total production
Non-conv. ProductionRequired
Non-conv. production. Forecast
Reserve additions (conv.)
Production from exist. conv. reserves
Production from new conv. reserves
Demand growth 1.9% per year
Ultimate reserves (conv.): 2660 mia. tønder
Reserve additions (conv.): 16 Gb/year (first years)
Scenario S2
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80
'2002' '2007' '2012' '2017' '2022' '2027' '2032' '2037' '2042' '2047' '2052'
Mb
/day
'Middle.East ' 'FSU ' 'Latin.America ' 'Africa '
'North.America ' 'Europe ' 'Asia ' 'Other '
'New conv.capacity ' 'Non-conv.capac.prog ' 'Non-conv.capac.req '
Non-conv. capacityRequired New conv. capacity
All regions
Non-conv. capacityForecast
Middle EastExist. reserves
Production capacity by region
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45
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2000 mia. tønder tilbage i 2005 (*)
1000 mia. tønder tilbage i 2005 (*)
Store nye reserver findes i de kommende
Mindre nye reserver findes i de kommende år
Vækst2% om året
Mia. tønder/år
Med en vækst på 2% om året bliver der i de næste 14 år brugt 500 mia. tønder
Det er halvdelen af den mængde, der blev brugt i de sidste hundrede år
Nu er forbruget så stort, at går det rigtigt stærkt:
(*) + 750 mia. tønder fra naturgaskondensat, tjæresand m.m.
år
Fra Klaus Illum ”I Drivhuset”, udgivet af 3F, marts 2006
”The industrialised world is built on cheap energy.…..Now the cheap fossil-fuels fiesta is ending, climate change is upon us, and our models of global industry, commerce, food production, and transportation may not survive”
James Howard Kunstler: The Long Emergency. Surviving the converging catastrophes of the twenty-first century. (2005)
The longer the oil industry succeeds in meeting a growing demand – i.e. the more the global economy becomes depending on oil – the worse the situation when oil production capacity can no longer meet demand.
The higher the rise, the steeper the fall.
Therefore, common sense dictates that hundreds of billions of dollars be spent on investments that make the world economy less dependent on oil, rather than spending the money on investments in additional oil production capacity.
Conclusions:
I samtlige beregninger, der udarbejdes til at vurdere langsigtede energi- og klimapolitiske tiltag, baserer Energistyrelsen sig i lighed med mange andre IEA medlemslande på agenturets forudsætninger om den langsigtede råoliepris. IEA har gennem mange år opbygget et internationalt ry for at levere solide og kompetente analyser af den mulige udvikling i olieproduktion og –forbrug.
Alongside many other IEA member countries, the Danish Energy Authority relies on the agency’s long-term crude oil price forecasts for all computational assessments concerning long-term energy and climate policy. The IEA has through many years gained an international reputation of providing well-founded competent analyses of the potential development in oil production and demand.
The Danish Energy Authority, 14. March 2006. On www.ens.dk
Well, let’s have a look at some IEA projections
Energistyrelsen, 14. marts 2006. På www.ens.dk
2004:
IEA WEO 2004 IEA WEO 2005
Crude oil price projections
”In all, it does appear that with current market fundamentals, $60 is, in effect, a pretty low price."
Paul Horsnell of Barclays Capital Inc., London. OGJ, March 16, 2006
IEA WEO 2006 ?
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2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Mb/day Global oil consumptionIEA projections 2004 and 2005
REF2004
REF2005
ALT2004
ALT2005
Reference scenario and Alternative scenario
Growth 2004 - 2030:
REF2004: + 41.3 Mb/day
REF2005: + 33.2 Mb/day
Difference ALT - REF in 2020: - 10%
IEA, WEO 2004
But, in WEO 2003, p. 107-108: Continued consumption growth at 1.6% p.a.”implies a decline in the global proven reserves to production ratio fromaround 40 years to under 20 years in 2030”. When the R/P ratio is under 20 years, production is most certainly declining.