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Fridolin Krausmann
ISEE Conference: Ecological Sustainability and Human Well Being New Delhi, 15-18 December 2006
Historical Sustainability Research
Out of the frying pan into the fire: Industrialization as a socio-ecological transition process
Fridolin Krausmann(for internal use only – do not quote without permission of the author)
Fridolin Krausmann
Transitions between socio-ecological regimes
?
transition
Hunters and gatherers
Agrarian Industrial
Socio-ecological regimes
Sustainable ? Postindustrial? Knowledge society?
Source: Sieferle et al. 2006, modified
Fridolin Krausmann
0
50
100
150
200
25017
00
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Pri
mar
y en
erg
y u
se (
DE
C)
[GJ/
cap
/yr]
Primary energy use (per capita)
United Kingdom
AustriaJapan
Fridolin Krausmann
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%17
00
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Sh
are
of
bio
mas
s [%
of
DE
C]
Share of biomass
United KingdomAustria
Japan
Fridolin Krausmann
Energy intensity (DEC/GDP)
0
10
20
30
40
50
6018
30
1850
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
En
erg
y in
ten
sity
(D
EC
/GD
P)
[GJ/
1000
int.
$] Austria
UK
Japan
Fridolin Krausmann
Population density
0
75
150
225
300
37517
00
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Po
pu
lati
on
den
sity
[ca
p/k
m²]
United Kingdom
Austria
Japan
Fridolin Krausmann
Share of agricultural population
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%17
00
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Ag
ricu
ltu
ral p
op
ula
tio
n [
% o
f to
tal]
United Kingdom
Austria
Japan
Fridolin Krausmann
The solar energy system: From tapping flows to...
Agriculturalpopulation
Land use
Photosynthesis
Human labourBiomass
Fossil energy
Energy flows
Non-agricultural population
Production
Fridolin Krausmann
The fossil fuel energy system (coal)....to exploiting stocks
Agriculturalpopulation
Land use
Non-agricultural population
Production
Photosynthesis
Fossils
Human labourBiomass
Fossil energy
Energy flows
Fridolin Krausmann
The fossil fuel energy system (coal)....to exploiting stocks
Agriculturalpopulation
Land use
Non-agricultural population
Production
Photosynthesis
Fossils
Human labourBiomass
Fossil energy
Energy flows
Fridolin Krausmann
The fossil fuel energy system (oil, gas)....to exploiting stocks
Agriculturalpopulation
Land use
Non-agricultural population
Production
Photosynthesis
Fossils
Human labourBiomass
Fossil energy
Energy flows
Fridolin Krausmann
The transformation of agriculture:From energy source….
Photosynthesis
1 GJ work* etc. 4-7 GJ food
Agriculture
*primary energy equivalent of work
Fridolin Krausmann
Photosynthesis
0,1 GJ work*
25-30 GJ food
30-35 GJ fossils
Agriculture
The transformation of agriculture: ….to energy sink
*primary energy equivalent of work
Fridolin Krausmann
The metabolic transition
The hypothesis of the metabolic transition is derived from historical evidence and claims that industrialization is related to fundamental and characteristic changes in the structure and size of social metabolism:
– The transformation of the energy system: from solar based and land related (food, feed, wood) to fossil fuel based; from tapping flows to exploiting stocks
– Changing relation of land use and energy: agriculture changes from an „energy source“ to a sink of energy
– Absolute growth of population, material and energy use– Relative (per capita) growth of material and energy use– Characteristic metabolic profiles of agrarian and industrial
socioecological regimes
Fridolin Krausmann
Die Global Metabolic Transition: agrarian and industrial metabolic profiles
Agrarian Industrial Faktor
Energy (per capita) [GJ/cap] 30-70 150-400 3-5
Material (per capita) [t/cap] 3-5 15-25 3-5
Population density [cap/km²] <40 100-300 3-10
Energy (per area) [GJ/ha] 20-30 200-600 10-30
Material (per area) [t/ha] 1-2 20-50 10-30
Biomass (Share of) [%] 95-100 10-30 0,1-0,3
Fridolin Krausmann
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Biologicalproductivity
[GJ
/ha
/yr]
Back to the solar energysystem?
Energy supplyAustria 2000
Energy supplyUK 2000
195
MaximumEnergy yield under solar constraints
450
Fridolin Krausmann
Die Global Metabolic Transition: global metabolic patterns 2000
Agrarian Industrial LD DC
Energy (per capita) [GJ/cap] 30-70 150-400 37 63
Material (per capita) [t/cap] 5 15-25 3,5 6,7
Population density [cap/km²] 20-40 100-300 33 72
Energy (per area) [GJ/ha] 20-30 200-600 12 46
Material (per area) [t/ha] 1-2 20-50 1,1 4,8
Biomass (share of) [%] 95-100 10-30 92 50
Fridolin Krausmann
Die Global Metabolic Transition: global metabolic patterns 2000
Agrarian Industrial LD India
Energy (per capita) [GJ/cap] 30-70 150-400 37 37
Material (per capita) [t/cap] 5 15-25 3,5 5
Population density [cap/km²] 20-40 100-300 33 307
Energy (per area) [GJ/ha] 20-30 200-600 12 115
Material (per area) [t/ha] 1-2 20-50 1,1 17
Biomass (share of) [%] 95-100 10-30 92 64
Fridolin Krausmann
Die Global Metabolic Transition: global metabolic patterns 2000
Agrarian Industrial LD DC
Energy use / cap [GJ/cap] 50-70 150-400 37 63
Material use / cap [t/cap] 5 15-25 3,5 6,7
Pop. density [cap/km²] 30-40 100-300 33 72
Energy use / area [GJ/ha] 20-30 200-600 12 46
Material use / area [t/ha] 1-2 20-50 1,1 4,8
Biomass [%] 95-100 10-30 92 50
Are there alternatives to the historical path of the metabolic transition?
Is a sustainable industrial metabolic profile possible?
