fraser valley housing outlook -...
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Housing market intelligence you can count on
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Fraser Valley Housing Outlook
Robyn AdamachePrincipal, CMHC Market Analysis (Vancouver)
Housing market intelligence you can count on
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2015 and 2016 Outlook: The Big Picture
Housing Demand Drivers:
Mortgage rates to stay low and stable
Moderate growth in economy and jobs
Population growing
Housing Market:
Home building geared to population-based
demand
Resale markets will become more balanced
Strong demand for rental accommodation
Delta
530
Fraser Valley
8,510
S Surrey /
White Rock
1,110
Surrey 2,760
Langley
1,320Abbotsford
790
Mission 320 Chilliwack
580
Projected Annual Household Formation
8,510 New Fraser Valley Households Each Year
Source: B.C. Stats P.E.O.P.L.E. 2014. CMHC calculation average number new households per year 2014 -
2019
Ridge Meadows
320
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014 ytd 2015 ytd
Single Detached Multiple Unit Household Growth
Source: BC Stats, CMHC, Starts and Completions Survey, YTD = Jan – May,
Fraser Valley includes: Chilliwack, Abbotsford-Mission, Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows, Langley, Surrey, White
Rock, & Delta
2004 2006 2012
Household Growth Outpaces New Home Building
Fraser Valley Housing Starts
Standing Inventory Moderate
Source: CMHC Market Absorption Survey
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
House
Town House
Apartment
Chilliwack
Unsold Apartment Inventory Elevated
Source: CMHC Market Absorption Survey
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
House
Town House
Apartment
Abbotsford-Mission
Apartment Inventory High, but Trending Down
Source: CMHC Market Absorption Survey
0
50
100
150
200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
House
Town House
ApartmentRidge Meadows
Standing Inventory Normalizes
Source: CMHC Market Absorption Survey
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
House
Town House
Apartment
Langley
Standing Inventory Trending Lower
Source: CMHC Market Absorption Survey
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
House
Town House
Apartment
Surrey
Standing Inventory Scarce
Source: CMHC Market Absorption Survey
0
20
40
60
80
100
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
House
Town House
Apartment
White Rock
Apartment and House Inventories Elevated
Source: CMHC Market Absorption Survey
0
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
House
Town House
Apartment
Delta
0
10
20
30
40
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Condo/Town House House
Buyers’ Market
FVREB MLS® Sales to Active Listings Ratio (%), (3 Mo Avg)
Source: Fraser Valley Real Estate Board, CMHC Calculation, May 2015 latest data point
Balanced
Market
Sellers’ Market
Fraser Valley Detached Home Market Heats Up
Gap Between House and Condo Prices Widens
Source: Fraser Valley Real Estate Board, Data end point May 2015
MLS® Benchmark Prices, Fraser Valley
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Single
Detached
$602K
Town House
$303K
Apartment
$193K
$522K
$318K
$225K
Gap ≈ $300-
400KGap ≈ $200-
300K
Rental Markets Solid
Source: CMHC, Rental Market Survey, Condo Vacancy Survey, Oct 2014
% of Condo Stock in Rental Pool
North
Shore
19%Downtown
42%Suburban
21%City of Van
22%
FV
23%
Half of renters live in secondary rental accommodation
Vacancies move lower
Investors provide rental supply
3.6%
1.5%
2.5%
2.6%
2.8%
3.1%
0.7%
1.0%
0.4%
Delta
W Rock
Surrey
Langley
Ridge…
Abb-Mission
Metro Van
Suburban Van
Fraser Valley
Purpose-built
Rental Apt
Rental Condo Apt
Tourism Victoria
Wrap Up
New home construction to remain stable
Resales expected to moderate
Price growth will slow in 2016
Strong rental demand
Wrap Up
Seniors living longer, healthier lives(especially men!)
Big Question
How will Baby Boomers behave in their “retirement” years?
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Robyn Adamache
604-737-4144
Thank You!!
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