francesca marcucci, lucio torrisi, stefano sebastianelli* cnmca, national meteorological...
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Francesca Marcucci, Lucio Torrisi, Stefano Sebastianelli*
CNMCA, National Meteorological Center,Italy* ISMAR-CNR, Venice, Italy
Status of COSMO-ME-EPS system
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Outline• The COSMO-ME EPS system• Evaluation of EPS scores• First probabilistic products• A sea state EPS: NETTUNO-EPS• Future developments
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7 km40 v.l.
2.8 km65 v.l.
- compressible equations- parameterized convection
- compressible equations- explicit convection
CNMCA NWP SYSTEMCNMCA NWP SYSTEM
Local Area Modelling: COSMO
COSMO-ME (7km) ITALIAN MET SERVICE
10 km45 v.l.
Control StateAnalysis
COSMO-ME EPS(pre-operational)
LETKFAnalysis
Ensemble Data Assimilation
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4
The CNMCA-LETKF data assimilation system is operationally used to initialize the high-resolution non-hydrostatic model COSMO integrated over the Mediterranean-European region. The atmospheric short-range ensemble prediction system based on the LETKF system and the COSMO model is under testing at CNMCA since july 2013
MAIN CHARACTERISTICS:
Domain and resolution: Mediterranean-European domain 0.09° grid spacing (~10 km) and 45 vertical levels 40+1 ensemble members IC and BC: initial conditions are derived every 6 hours from the CNMCA-LETKF system. Lateral boundaries conditions are from IFS deterministic run perturbed using ECMWF-EPS. Surface perturbations: climatological perturbed sea surface temperature. Model error: stochastics physics perturbation tendencies.Forecast range: the 40+1 COSMO forecast members will run up to 48 hours at 00 UTC.
The COSMO-ME EPS SYSTEM
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First results : 1 jul 2013 – 31 dec 2013
COSMO-ME EPS Calibration
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Slide 4 di 30
700 hPa
500 hPa
850 hPa
300 hPa
SPREAD-SKILL DIAGRAM U-WIND (5 BINS, IFS-ANALYSIS)SPREAD-SKILL DIAGRAM U-WIND (5 BINS, IFS-ANALYSIS)
CNMCA 5 settembre 2014
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Slide 5 di 30
700 hPa
500 hPa
850 hPa
300 hPa
SPREAD-SKILL DIAGRAM U-WIND (5 BINS, OBS TEMP, SPREAD-SKILL DIAGRAM U-WIND (5 BINS, OBS TEMP, NO_ERR_OBS)NO_ERR_OBS)
SPREAD-SKILL DIAGRAM U-WIND (5 BINS, OBS TEMP, SPREAD-SKILL DIAGRAM U-WIND (5 BINS, OBS TEMP, ERR_OBS)ERR_OBS)
CNMCA 5 settembre 2014
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Slide 6 di 30
COSMO ME EPS - CRPSCOSMO ME EPS - CRPS
CDF ensemble
CDF observation
CNMCA 5 settembre 2014
Hersbach (2000)Hersbach (2000)
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Slide 7 di 30
700 hPa
500 hPa
850 hPa
300 hPa
CRPS U-WIND (1 BIN, IFS-ANALYSIS)CRPS U-WIND (1 BIN, IFS-ANALYSIS)
CNMCA 5 settembre 2014
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Slide 9 di 30
RANK HISTOGRAM RANK HISTOGRAM U-WIND @ 700 HPAU-WIND @ 700 HPA
36840296 IFS-ANALYSIS
12
24
36
48
CNMCA 5 settembre 2014
+12h +36h+12h
+24h +48h
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NO ERR OBS
Slide 11 di 30
ERR OBS
12
24
36
48
RANK HISTOGRAM RANK HISTOGRAM U-WIND @ 700 U-WIND @ 700
HPAHPA
TEMP-OBS
CNMCA 5 settembre 2014
+12h +24h+12h
+36h +48h
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NO ERR OBS
Slide 12 di 30
ERR OBS
12
24
36
48
RANK RANK HISTOGRAM U-HISTOGRAM U-
WIND @ 300 HPAWIND @ 300 HPA
TEMP-OBS
CNMCA 5 settembre 2014
+12h +24h+12h
+36h +48h
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Slide 13 di 30
FORECAST PROBABILITYFORECAST PROBABILITYINPUT DESCRIZIONE OUTPUT THRESHOLD t (h) fc (h) OPE
CLCL Nuvolosità bassa Forecast probability ≥ soglie 0.5, 0.875 (%) 0 +0 → +48 (+6) -
CLCT Nuvolosità totale Forecast probability ≥ soglie 0.5, 0.875 (%) 0 +0 → +48 (+6) -
CLCT_RED Nuvolosità totale (AWI) Forecast probability in range di soglie 0, 5, 25, 65, 95, 101 (%) 0 +6 → +48 (+3) -
DD_10M Direzione del vento a 10 m Forecast probability in range di soglie 0, 22.5, 67.5, 112.5, 157.5, 202.5, 247.5, 292.5, 337.5, 360 (°)
0 +0 → +48 (+3) -
FF_10M Modulo della velocità del vento a 10 m
eps_standard_deviation - - +0 → +48 (+3) -
HS_WAVE Altezza significativa delle onde del mare
Forecast probability ≥ soglie 0.1, 0.5, 1.25, 2.5, 4, 6, 9, 14 (m)
0 +0 → +48 (+6) -
HS_WAVE Altezza significativa delle onde del mare
eps_standard_deviation - - +0 → +48 (+3) -
PHEN Fenomeno (AWI) Forecast probability ≥ soglie 10, 20, 31, 32, 33, 41, 42, 43, 51, 52, 53
0 +6 → +48 (+3) -
T_2M Temperatura a 2 m eps_standard_deviation - - +0 → +48 (+3) -
TMAX_2M Temperatura massima a 2 m Forecast probability ≥ soglie -10, 0, 25, 30, 32, 35, 38, (°C)
6 +6 → +48 (+6) max
TMAX_2M Temperatura massima a 2 m Forecast probability ≥ soglie -10, 0, 25, 30, 32, 35, 38, (°C)
12 +12 → +48 (+6) max
CNMCA Production using Fieldextra (1/3):
CNMCA 5 settembre 2014
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Slide 14 di 30
FORECAST PROBABILITYFORECAST PROBABILITYINPUT DESCRIZIONE OUTPUT THRESHOLD t (h) fc (h) OPE
TMAX_2M Temperatura massima a 2 m Forecast probability ≥ soglie -10, 0, 25, 30, 32, 35, 38, (°C)
24 +24 → +48 (+6) max
TMIN_2M Temperatura minima a 2 m Forecast probability ≤ soglie -20, -10, -5, 0, 5, 20 (°C) 6 +6 → +48 (+6) min
TMIN_2M Temperatura minima a 2 m Forecast probability ≤ soglie -20, -10, -5, 0, 5, 20 (°C) 12 +12 → +48 (+6) min
TMIN_2M Temperatura minima a 2 m Forecast probability ≤ soglie -20, -10, -5, 0, 5, 20 (°C) 24 +24 → +48 (+6) min
TOT_PREC Precipitazione totale (RAIN_GSP + RAIN_CON + SNOW_GSP + SNOW_CON)
Forecast probability ≥ soglie 10, 20, 30,40, 50, 80, 100, 150 (mm)
6 +6 → +48 (+6) delta
TOT_PREC Precipitazione totale (RAIN_GSP + RAIN_CON + SNOW_GSP + SNOW_CON)
Forecast probability ≥ soglie 10, 20, 30,40, 50, 80, 100, 150 (mm)
12 +12 → +48 (+6) delta
TOT_PREC Precipitazione totale (RAIN_GSP + RAIN_CON + SNOW_GSP + SNOW_CON)
Forecast probability ≥ soglie 10, 20, 30,40, 50, 80, 100, 150 (mm)
24 +24 → +48 (+6) delta
TOT_SNOW Precipitazione nevosa totale (SNOW_GSP + SNOW_CON)
Forecast probability ≥ soglie 1, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 50, 80 (cm)
6 +6 → +48 (+6) delta
TOT_SNOW Precipitazione nevosa totale (SNOW_GSP + SNOW_CON)
Forecast probability ≥ soglie 1, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 50, 80 (cm)
12 +12 → +48 (+6) delta
CNMCA 5 settembre 2014
CNMCA Production using Fieldextra (2/3):
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Slide 15 di 30
FORECAST PROBABILITYFORECAST PROBABILITY
INPUT DESCRIZIONE OUTPUT THRESHOLD t (h) fc (h) OPE
TOT_SNOW Precipitazione nevosa totale (SNOW_GSP + SNOW_CON)
Forecast probability ≥ soglie 1, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 50, 80 (cm)
24 +24 → +48 (+6) delta
VMAX_10M Velocità massima del vento a 10 m
Forecast probability ≥ soglie 40, 45, 50.4, 60, 64.8, 75.6, 90, 100, 104.4, 118.8, 140,4 (km/h)
6 +6 → +48 (+6) max
VMAX_10M Velocità massima del vento a 10 m
Forecast probability ≥ soglie 40, 45, 50.4, 60, 64.8, 75.6, 90, 100, 104.4, 118.8, 140,4 (km/h)
12 +12 → +48 (+6) max
VMAX_10M Velocità massima del vento a 10 m
Forecast probability ≥ soglie 40, 45, 50.4, 60, 64.8, 75.6, 90, 100, 104.4, 118.8, 140,4 (km/h)
24 +24 → +48 (+6) max
CNMCA 5 settembre 2014
CNMCA Production using Fieldextra (3/3):
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Slide 16 di 30CNMCA 5 settembre 2014
PROBABIPROBABILITY LITY FORECASFORECASTT
MEANMEAN
STDVSTDV NORMALIZED STDVNORMALIZED STDV
24 HOURS CUMULATED PRECIPITATION
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Slide 17 di 30CNMCA 5 settembre 2014
PROBABIPROBABILITY LITY FORECASFORECASTT
MEANMEAN
STDVSTDV NORMALIZED STDVNORMALIZED STDV
VMAX_10M
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Slide 18 di 30CNMCA 5 settembre 2014
PROBABIPROBABILITY LITY FORECASFORECASTT
MEANMEAN
STDVSTDV NORMALIZED STDVNORMALIZED STDV
TMIN_2M
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Slide 19 di 30CNMCA 5 settembre 2014
PROBABIPROBABILITY LITY FORECASFORECASTT
MEANMEAN
STDVSTDV NORMALIZED STDVNORMALIZED STDV
TMAX_2M
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NETTUNO (Sea State) EPSpart of MYWAVE project
NETTUNO is a high resolution local scale wave forecast system operational in the Mediterranean Sea based on the COSMO-ME and WAM models (In cooperation with ISMAR-CNR of Venice)
The sea state probabilistic forecast is obtained driving the wave model using the hourly COSMO-ME EPS wind forecast members The NETTUNO-EPS consists of 40+1 members, that are integrated at 00 UTC up to 48 hour forecast in the Mediterranean basin
Validation of sea-state forecast has been done at ISMAR-CNR
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Slide 20 di 30CNMCA 5 settembre 2014
PROBABIPROBABILITY LITY FORECASFORECASTT
MEANMEAN
STDVSTDV NORMALIZED STDVNORMALIZED STDV
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
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Future Developments
• Calibration/tuning of the COSMO-ME EPS • Evaluation of stochastic physics impact over a long
period• Extension of the validation of the NETTUNO-EPS • Soil moisture perturbation
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Thanks for your attention!