framing the decision, page 1decision analysis course, august 2003 © 2003 by decision education...

Framing the Decision, Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved.

Decision Analysis – Math in the Real World

Framing the Decision


Lesson Plan

• Definitions

• Look for hidden assumptions

• Communication can improve framing

• Conscious framing can create clarity

• The right frame is crucial for a good decision

(Supplemental reading if interested: Winning Decisions by J. Edward Russo and Paul Schoemaker.)


A helpful frame leads to better decisions.

Elements ofA Good Decision

HelpfulFrame

What is it that I am deciding?

CreativeAlternatives

What are my choices?

UsefulInformation

What do I know?

Clear Values

What consequences do I care about?

SoundReasoning

Am I thinking straight about this?Commitment

to Follow Through

Will I really take action?


What is the definition of “frame”?

• Cognitive scientists define frames as “mental structures that simplify and guide our understanding of a complex reality”.

• A frame sets the purpose, scope, and perspective for a decision.

– It answers the question “What am I deciding?”

• Analogy: framing a camera shot

PurposeScopePerspective


What issues does this frame suggest?

Grand Fey Viaduct, Switzerland - 1925


Lesson Plan

• Definitions

– A frame provides the purpose, scope, and perspective






A father and son are in a terrible accidentThe father is killed instantlyThe son is rushed to the hospital’s ER

When the operation starts, the surgeon cries:“My goodness, that is my son; I can’t operate on him!”

How is this possible?

A Riddle


How many squares are there below?


30 squares in total

(1 x 1): 16 squares

(3 x 3): 4 squares

(2 x 2): 9 squares

(4 x 4): 1 square

The Solution…


How many equilateral triangles can you create with 6 toothpicks?


Lesson Plan

• Definitions


– Consciously stretching the frame can create a better decision and result.





(“Perspectives” Game)


Pat’s Problem

• Pat has been late to work several times recently because of an unreliable car. This is causing problems for Pat at work.

• What are some different decision-frames that Pat could bring to this problem?


Pats Problem

• Leave Earlier• Move closer to work• Buy a new car• Car Pool• Bike / Roller blades• Bus-public transportation• Repair-make car more reliable• New work hours• Finances• Change jobs• Retire• Job share• Sleep in car at work site• Talk boss into company car• Have wife/girlfriend drop off at work


Pats Problem

• Is there anything that we wrote down as a group that you did not think of on your own?

• To get a good frame – include different people

• Different people see different situations differently and you can get more ideas for a frame to a problem


What is it?


The Blind Men and the Elephant

© 2003 by Decision Strategies International. All rights reserved.


Lesson Plan

• Definitions



– Learning from others who see things differently can lead to a better frame.




Save the Last Dance

• Sara: Fish out of water – a suburban ballerina in the hip-hop city

• Derek: On his way to Georgetown and medical school, a success-story in the making

• They meet. They dance. They fall in love…

• Trouble! Their families and friends want to separate them. They fight the world. Can their love survive?

• As Sara and Chenille (Derek’s sister) talk, let’s go to the videotape…


Lesson Plan

• Definitions




– Decisions (and life) can be ambiguous. Consciously choosing a frame can create clarity, provide insight, and highlight multiple views.



Which horizontal line is longer?



The Value of a Good Frame



Issues Decisions

• No other life• In the creek without a paddle• He might be lost• There are mountains and trees

and a river• He’s in the wilderness• Brown mountains (10 sets)• Snow• Green trees, dark green, light

brown• Man going down river in boat• It seems like the river should be

frozen

• I need to get out to find a paddle.

• Should I get out of the boat to gather supplies?

• Is he going to get out of the boat?


Issues Decisions

• There are 3 trees

• He’s in a boat in a stream

• Is alone

• Trees in the top left corner

• River bright blue

• Boat two shades brown

• No face

• No hair

• No boundries

• No oars

Jump out or stay in?

Should I keep going in the boat?

Whether to look ahead or behind?


Issues Decisions

• Rocks• Waterfall• Depth of the water• Can he swim?• Has he been alone the whole

time?• Strength of the boat• Where is he going?• How did he get to where he is?• Trees on both sides of river• Looks like this is a waterfall.• What is the temperature of the

water?

• Should he turn around?• Should he jump out of the boat?• Should he stay in the boat?• Should he wait for help?• Should he call for help with cell

phone?• Yell for help.• How should we get off this

river?• How can we avoid the

waterfalls?


How does this picture apply to your decisions? To your students’ decisions?

Decisions: Decisions:


Issues: Issues:

Decisions:

Issues:

Write at least 5 issues and 3 decisions that could or should be made from each frame.


Lesson Plan

• Definitions




• A helpful frame is crucial for a good decision

– The wrong frame can be misleading, and the right frame can be of enormous value.

framing the decision, page 1decision analysis course, august 2003 © 2003 by decision education...

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decision education foundation

strategic decisions

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issues decisionsthere

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