four lessons for innovation (and big...

Making the LeapCleveland Justis

Executive Director

Four lessons for innovation(and Big Bang!)

It’s not about the idea

11

I saw for the first time

everything in practical

operation. It was all before

me. I saw the thing had not

gone so far but that I had a

chance. I saw that what had

been done had never been

made practically useful.

— Thomas Edison

“

I invented nothing new. I

simply assembled into a car

the discoveries of other men

behind whom were centuries

of work. . . . So it is with every

new thing...

— Henry Ford

“

You don’t need a new idea. Find a good idea and make it work.

It's about commitment:yours and others'

22

Innovation is not risky.It’s uncertain.

Bad news / Good news

Innovation is risky, yet much of that risk should properly be defined as uncertainty.

Risk (proper) is measurable but irreducible

Uncertainty is risk that not measurable but is reducible (aka Knightian Risk)

Commitment = Vision x Validation

value

uncertainty

Investment (Time + Money)

Val

ue(V

isio

n x

Val

idat

ion)

Innovation hinges on commitment in the face of uncertainty, not discovery in the face of ignorance.

What’s holding you back?

Development Grants

(e.g. SBIR)

Applied Research

BasicResearch Stages of venture development

NetCash Flow

Stages of venture fundingResearch Grants

# of New Ventures

Life Cycle of a New Venture (one path)

Development Grants

(e.g. SBIR)

Applied Research


NetCash Flow


Life Cycle of a New Venture (one path)

# of New Ventures

Cliff ofCommitment

Recognizing opportunities

Defining the problem

Identifying the customer

Testing the market

Envisioning the business

De‐risking the technology

Setting the strategy

Modeling the finances

Setting the milestones

Building the team

Crafting the plan

Pitching the venture

Valley ofDeath

Development Grants

(e.g. SBIR)

Applied Research


NetCash Flow


Valley ofDeath

# of New Ventures

Life Cycle of a New Venture (one path)Cliff ofCommitment

Gen11st 3‐9 Months

Gen2(startup)

Gen3(transition)

Gen4(business)

Good

idea is…

Bad

Bad Good

idea looks…

duh

type II errorsRejecting a good idea because it looked bad at first glance

type I errorsInvesting time and energy in a bad idea that looked

good at first glance

everyone’s a genius

the inventor’s curse

the MBA’s curse

Is The Idea Any Good?

18

Lifecycle of a new venture

Development Grants

(e.g. SBIR)

Friends, Family, & Founders($5‐$50k)

AngelInvestors

($50‐$500k)

Early StageVenture Capital

($500k‐$2M+)

Venture Capital

($2M‐$50M)

Private Equity,Project

Financing($2M‐$50M)

Applied Research

Proof ofConcept

Target Market

BusinessPlan

Working Prototypes

Founding Team

EngineeringPrototypes

SupplierContracts

ProductionPrototypes

DistributionContracts

ProductIntroduction

Basic Research

IPO, Merger, or Acquisition($2M‐$50M)

Revenue Growth

NetCash Flow

NetCash Flow

Valley of Death

# of New Ventures Funding

Research Grants

Gen11st 3‐9 Months

Gen2(startup)

Gen3(transition)

Gen4(business)

Manage for uncertainty and commitment

Manage forbuilding the company

Manage for market, product

& process development

Manage forgrowing the business

Development of the idea (or time)

Current Worth

Uncertainty

Value

thinking doing thinking doing thinking

Thinking About Thinking and Doing…

Focus on reducing uncertainty: yours and others

Find and resolve the biggest uncertainties first.

Find and resolve the biggest uncertainties first.

Do it quickly and cheaply($5, $50, $500, $5,000…)Do it quickly and cheaply($5, $50, $500, $5,000…)

MarketIs it feasible?Is it desirable?Is it viable?

BusinessIs it feasible?Is it desirable?Is it viable?

TechnologyIs it feasible?Is it desirable?Is it viable?

Your Venture

The Framework

The mindset

It’s better to be specifically wrong than vaguely right…

EatRxEatRx

Example

EatRxEatRxRead the case

• Would you invest?

• For this to work, what would have to be true?

• Write down 5 uncertainties you would want to resolve before committing.

• In teams of 4, compare your questions and come up with the 3 most important ones to answer first.

What are the uncertainties?

MarketBusiness

Technology

The network isthe innovation

33

Innovation involves seeing, building, and maintaining committed and lasting networks connecting people, ideas, technologies, and other resources.

The project involved much more than

biochemistry. It was an interlocking problem in

logistics, like a military campaign in which the

organization of the supplies, equipment,

personnel, and reconnaissance need for advance

are all interdependent.

—Gwyn MacFarlane

“

ErnstDuschene

AlexanderFleming

Oxford

NormanHeatley

ErnstChain

Mellanby(MRC)

JohnFulton

(Rhodes)

AlfredRichards(US CMR)

HowardFlorey

[Florey] recognized the limits of his own

knowledge and deliberately chose as

collaborators people who could supply what he

lacked. In his published work he had as partners

a cytologist, radiologist, a bacteriologist, a

haematologist, a biochemist, and several

specialized physiologists.

— Gwyn MacFarlane

“

ErnstDuschene

AlexanderFleming

Oxford

NormanHeatley

ErnstChain

Mellanby(MRC)

JohnFulton

(Rhodes)


HowardFlorey

SirAlmrothWright

St. Mary’sHospital

RossHarrison(US NRC)

NationalLabs

USPharmaIndustry

ErnstDuschene

AlexanderFleming

Oxford

NormanHeatley

ErnstChain

Mellanby(MRC)

JohnFulton

(Rhodes)


HowardFlorey

Who do you know that has them? Who do you know who might know who has them?

Who do you know that has them? Who do you know who might know who has them?

What knowledge, abilities, or resources do you need to move forward?

What knowledge, abilities, or resources do you need to move forward?

Find and build the right network

34


Development Grants

(e.g. SBIR)


AngelInvestors

($50‐$500k)


($500k‐$2M+)

Venture Capital

($2M‐$50M)



Applied Research

Proof ofConcept

Target Market

BusinessPlan

Working Prototypes

Founding Team


SupplierContracts



ProductIntroduction

Basic Research


Stage of Venture Development

Revenue Growth

NetCash Flow

NetCash Flow

Valley of Death

Funding

Research Grants

35


Development Grants

(e.g. SBIR)


AngelInvestors

($50‐$500k)


($500k‐$2M+)

Venture Capital

($2M‐$50M)



Applied Research

Proof ofConcept

Target Market

BusinessPlan

Working Prototypes

Founding Team


SupplierContracts



ProductIntroduction

Basic Research


Revenue Growth

NetCash Flow

NetCash Flow

Valley of Death

# of New Ventures

Research Grants

These programs help you determine the best path, the best first steps, and the best first network.

The rest is up to you.

Laboratory Research

Publication of Research

Pre-competitive Industry Consortia

Personal Interactionsbetween Researchers

and Industries

Corporate Sponsored Research Programs

Placement of Skilled Students & Trainees

Faculty & Student Consulting to Industry

Entrepreneurial Ventures(with or without IP)

IP Licensing to Established Companies

January 28 (c) UC Davis Child

You build a network one handshake at a time.

So what are your next partner’s uncertainties?

The 10‐slide deck is your first $5 experiment

44

Fundamental Premises of Using the Pitch Deck are:

1. The slide deck is the first comprehensive prototype of a new venture, and so should be created, shared, and in other ways treated as a work in progress (and slides are easier to revise or abandon than a lengthy written document).

2. It's critical to describe all aspects of the venture (and not just the ones you know about or are excited by), as both a prototype and a way to communicate to any mentors or investors;

3. Presenting the business requires providing the right information in the right order, and thus the order of the slides is critical.

Page 39

A Business Plan in 10 Slides

The TemplateThis template has been designed (and tested) to help you both define your venture and hone your presentation.

Its the general outline that answers most of the questions that investors will have about your business, and in the order they will ask them.

The purpose of this template is to quickly communicate your venture to, and quickly learn from, your audience. Be concise but also comprehensive.

In reality, this is actually two templates. Use the slide template to create a slide deck that you will present from. This deck should not have too many words—you will add those in your talk.

Next, copy the slides and paste them again on the end (or create a new file) that has more explanation and serves as the notes and/or something that you can leave behind or send to someone. This second deck should be self‐explanatory.

Try to use images where possible to convey your message.

Keep it simple.

Slides0. Title Slide

1. Introduction (elevator pitch)

2. Problem & Solution

3. The Market

a. 4 P’s

b. Competitive Matrix

c. User Scenarios

4. Business Model and Pricing

5. Technology

6. Competition

7. Milestones

8. Team

9. Financial Projections

10. Summary & Next Steps

Your Company (or Project) Here

Page 41

Your company name and contact information here

Include all names/emails/phone of the founding team•Include company website (if established)

The Introduction – Elevator Pitch

Page 42

In approximately 140 characters or less, describe what the company does, for whom, and why it’s important (i.e., valuable to that customer).

You can also very briefly mention any significant accomplishments/milestones reached so far, e.g. have license to patent, proof of concept completed, prototype completed, tested with name brand customers, etc. This can attract interest for the remainder of the presentation.

Problem, Solution & Value Proposition

On this slide, you want to define three things:

1.The problem your venture will address, using as clear and compelling language as possible. Be sure to clearly identify who has the problem (consumer or customer) and how badly.

2.Your solution should be described in terms of the way it solves the problem you’ve identified for the consumer and/or customer (avoid describing the technical features of your solution here).

3.The value proposition, which refers to the most important benefit for the user. Explain how you would measure it’s value. What are the costs (e.g. buying, installing, and operating your solution) relative to what they currently use)? Be as specific (and if possible, quantitative) as you can about the relative value of your solution.

The Market

Describe the particular market segment you are pursuing.

1. Clearly identify who your customer is and how many of them there are.

2. Identify how much they will pay and how many they will buy.

3. State how you will reach them.

Optional Slides

To develop your concept further, you may choose to include the accompanying slides to:

1. Describe the 4 Ps: product, price, promotion, and place of your marketing plan.

2. Describe the current and emerging competition, use the accompanying Competitive Landscape Matrix to define the critical features that your customers care about, and the differences (based on these features) between your offering and the competition’s.

3. You may also want to add a User Scenario slide to describe the typical customer, their preferences, and how they would use this product.

The slides are optional and should only be included if they will help you develop your concept.

(Optional) Product, Price, Promotion, Place

“P” Description

ProductWhat is the product (tangible) or service (intangible) or combination that you are offering. If there is a product mix, describe the differences among the mix.

PriceWhat is the price the customer will pay for the product/service? What is the perceived value proposition that justifies that price?

Promotion

What is the promotion plan? What are the methods of communicating the relevant information about the product to each of many different parties (including customer, distributors, etc.): advertising, direct mail, word‐of‐mouth, public relations, coupons?

PlaceWhat is your place? Place describes your distribution strategy: where will customers get access to your products/services? How will you distribute your products to these locations?

(Optional) Competitive Landscape

Feature

3

Feature

5

Feature

1

Feature

2

Feature

4

Feature

N

Your Company / Project

Competitor 1

Competitor 2

Competitor 3

Competitor 4

Competitor N

▪ List any direct competitors as well as competing alternatives (including the status quo). Do your research here. Who are they?

List them. What makes you different? Describe it! What gives the company an advantage? Describe it too!▪ Depending on the product and competitors it is sometimes easier to depict the competitive landscape in terms of specific

features that add substantial value compared to your competitors. This can be shown easily by careful consideration to the row and column headings in the illustrated table.

(Optional) User Scenario(s)

A User Scenario describes a typical customer (or 2 or 3), their demographics, and what they are looking to do with your solution (i.e., what is their problem and how your solution will solve it?)

These descriptions are narratives, not bullets, and demonstrate that you understand the typical customer and their needs (better than anyone else does).

Technology

Describe how your solution works.

Answer the following questions in your description.

1.What is your technology?

1. What does it do? How does it do it?

2.Will it work (and when)?

3.Can we make it (at scale)?

1. What does it cost?

2. Describe the supply chain: who will provide any critical elements of your core technology?

4.What makes this solution effective, unique, and/or defensible from competitors?

1. Describe any IP (patents, provisional patents, or trade secrets)

2. Describe any distinguishing (or inimitable) value of your technology over competing solution.

Revenue and Pricing

Describe how your company will make money solving the customer’s problem. Make sure to answer the following questions:

1.How will you make money? (See the revenue model alternatives to answer this: are you making money by the unit sold, by a subscription, transaction fee, advertising, etc.)

2.How much will you make? (See financial projections)

3.How much will it cost? In a table, show how much you expect to get paid for each unit you sell, how much it will cost to make, and how many you will sell.

4.When will it happen? When the business is up and running, how many units, subscriptions, etc. do you expect to sell in a given year and at what price? Your expected sales = price x quantity.

MarketIs it feasible?Is it desirable?Is it viable?

BusinessIs it feasible?Is it desirable?Is it viable?

TechnologyIs it feasible?Is it desirable?Is it viable?

Your Venture

The Framework

Financial Projections

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Revenue ($000)

$ 60 $ 120 $ 240 $ 480 $ 960

Expenses $ 85 $ 150 $ 180 $ 240 $ 400

Customers 5 10 20 40 80

Net income $ ‐25 $ ‐30 $60 $ 240 $ 560

Provide a simple table that sets out your best guess of the financial performance of the venture over the next five years. Don’t worry about being right—this is your best guess. Include the following:1.What you believe will be the revenue, expenses, and net income of the venture.2.To be more accurate in your thinking, include what you think will be the main predictors of your revenue (e.g.,, # of customers, price (if it changes over time), number of sales representatives) and of your expenses (e.g., # of employees, costs of goods sold (COGS), or commissions) 3.The primary role of this table is to reflect how much money the company will need, how much it will make, and how other key metrics (like customers or employees) line up with the financials. The numbers should be your best guess. Don’t try to play it “conservative” and don’t exaggerate—neither will help you find mistakes, or make friends.

Milestones

Your milestones represent the most important objectives of your business your first 9‐12 months.

At this stage, each of your milestones should be designed to increase the value of the company by reducing the uncertainty surrounding your assumptions.

Note that for each milestone, you’ll need the right capabilities and investment. Thus the milestones should be connected to the Team and Summary slides.

Typical milestones might be:

•Completing a technical prototype

•Getting a first customer

•Shipping your first product (or getting your first 10,000 users)

•Cash flow break even

Don’t cover every milestone, just the major ones you will accomplish in this initial round and any other (major) milestones that you’ll need to eventually meet before getting to market (i.e., regulatory approval, patents awarded, etc.).

The Team

The Advisory Board

Picture Name (or TBD)Relevant skills and

experiences

Picture Name (or TBD)Relevant skills & experiences

Describe your current and planned management team. NOTE: Don’t put someone on your team just to fill a spot. List only the people who are moving forward with your venture. Otherwise list TBD and be prepared to explain what kind of person you need.

Describe your current advisors. Don’t list advisors you have not gotten permission to list. Instead, if you’re missing key advisors, list the backgrounds and experiences you think will be valuable.

For each of the founders and advisors, describe the skills and experiences that are meaningful to the venture

For each of the founders and advisors, describe the skills and experiences that are meaningful to the venture

Summary and Next Steps

Summarize your venture and status on this slide

• Be clear in what you are planning to do…in both the long run and the short run.

• Be clear in what you are asking for from this audience. If you are pitching internal executives (or outside investors), tell them what funding you need and what you will do with it. If you are pitching to potential advisors or employees –be clear about what you’re asking of them.

Include your contact information

Applying What You’ve Learned

Start writing down your ideas—be specific—and be sensitive to what’s holding you back.

Download the presentation template:

http://gsm.ucdavis.edu/faea16

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