forex - dentonisd.org...the supply of dollars in the currency exchange market which leads to...
TRANSCRIPT
Foreign ExchanGe
FOREX
April 30, 2013 TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) -- Taiwan's economic growth slowed in the first quarter as global demand for the island's electronics exports remained subdued. The government said Tuesday the economy expanded 1.5 percent from a year earlier, which was far below expectations of 3.2 percent. Exports grew 2.4 percent to $72.6 billion in the January-March period. That was far below target, mainly because of the slower economic recovery in China and Europe, the island's two main export markets. The government said some export orders for high-tech goods shifted to Japan because of the weaker yen. There was robust growth in semiconductor exports but overall export growth was hurt by the weak global recovery and declining sales at Taiwan's largest smartphone maker, HTC Corp. HTC has suffered component shortages amid efforts to launch a new flagship model
Foreign Exchange Rates
• Exchange rate – price of one currency in terms of another (multiply foreign P by exchange rate to get U.S.
price)
• Fixed rate – rate of exchange stays the same; in past basis was gold
• Flexible rate (floating) – based on supply and demand for each currency
Foreign Exchange Rates
• Flexible rates – began in 1971 when U.S. went off the gold standard
• U.S. imports increased and foreigners were gaining U.S. dollars & exchanging them for U.S. gold
• Foreign exchange market - wherever one currency is exchanged for another
Foreign Exchange • Appreciation (strong dollar) – dollar buys more of
another currency & results in less expensive imports and more expensive exports
SID
• Strong Currency
• Imports Increase (b/c cheaper)
• Trade Deficit
Foreign Exchange
• Depreciation (weak dollar) – dollar buys less of another currency & results in more expensive imports and less expensive exports
WES
• Weak Currency
• Cheap Exports (so X increase)
• Trade Surplus
FOREX – shifts FEITRRS
Incomes go up or down (can buy more or less of foreign
goods)
Tastes
Relative price level (inflation in one nation makes foreign goods cheaper)
Real Interest Rates (want to earn on financial assets abroad if rates are higher)
Speculation
FEITRR FOREX – Foreign Exchange I.T.R.R.
Exchange Rate Determinants
• Tastes (Consumer Preference)
– Ex. a preference for Japanese goods creates an increase in the supply of dollars in the currency exchange market which leads to depreciation of the Dollar and an appreciation of Yen
• Income (relative to another economy)
– Ex. If Mexico’s economy is strong and the U.S. economy is in recession, then Mexicans will buy more American goods, increasing the demand for the Dollar, causing the Dollar to appreciate and the Peso to depreciate
FEITRRS cont…
• Relative Price Level
– Ex. If the price level is higher in Canada than in the United States, then American goods are relatively cheaper than Canadian goods, thus Canadians will import more American goods causing the U.S. Dollar to appreciate and the Canadian Dollar to depreciate.
• Real Interest Rate (Leads to Speculation)
– Ex. If U.S. investors expect that Swiss interest rates will climb in the future, then Americans will demand Swiss Francs in order to earn the higher rates of return in Switzerland. This will cause the Dollar to depreciate and the Swiss Franc to appreciate.
• Speculation: If U.S. investors
FEITRRS cont…
• Speculation: If U.S. investors expect that Swiss interest rates will climb in the future, then American will D Swiss Francs in order to earn the higher rates of return in Switzerland. This will cause the Dollar to depreciate and the Swiss Franc to appreciate.
Other countries want U. S. goods when:
-Ours are cheaper -Our inflation is less that theirs -Our interest rate is higher -The other country is growing faster
These cause the dollar to APPRECIATE
The $dollar depreciates when the opposite events occur.
I have no idea why I made this purple
Graph Time
“Redelsheimer’s Graphs to Know” AP Macro Review Copyright 2005
The Market for Yen
Quantity of Yen
Doll
ar P
rice
of
1 Y
en
0
P
Q Qe
Sy
Dy
THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET
Foreign Exchange
$ price for yen
$/Y
Yen price for $
Y/$
Qty of yen Qty of $
S
D
S
D
Supply of yen from Japanese importers who must exchange them for $$ to buy U.S. goods
Demand for yen by U.S. importers who need them to buy Japanese goods
Draw a FOREX graph with Increase in the
Supply of U.S. Dollars
relative to the Euro
Q$
S$
D$
e
q
S$ .: e (ex. rate) ↓ & Q$ ↑
.: $ depreciates relative to €
S$ 1
e1
q1
Increase in the Supply
of U.S. Dollars relative to the Euro € / $
Now Draw a
Decrease in the
Supplyof Yen relative
to the Euro
€/¥
Q¥
S¥
D¥
e
q
S¥ .: e ↑ & Q¥ ↓
.: ¥ appreciates relative to €
S¥1
e1
q1
Decrease in the Supply
of Yen relative to the Euro
Increase in the Demand
for the British Pound
relative to the U.S. Dollar
$/£
Q£
S£
D£
e
q
D£ 1
e1
q1
D£ .: e ↑ & Q£ ↑
.: £ appreciates relative to the $
Increase in the Demand
for the British Pound relative to the U.S. Dollar
Decrease in the Demand
for Yen relative to the
British Pound
£/¥
Q¥
S¥
D¥ 1
e1
q1
D¥
e
q
D¥ .: e ↓ & Q¥ ↓
.: ¥ depreciates relative to the £
Decrease in the Demand
for Yen relative to the British Pound
ADVANTAGES OF STRONGER CURRENCY
• CONSUMERS CAN BUY IMPORTS AT A LOWER PRICE
• TRAVELERS ABROAD CAN GET MORE FOREIGN CURRENCY
• INVESTORS CAN BUY MORE FOREIGN ASSETS
24
DISADVANTAGES OF STRONGER CURRENCY
• PRODUCERS WILL SELL FEWER EXPORTS
• FOREIGNERS TRAVELING INTO THE COUNTRY WILL FIND IT MORE EXPENSIVE
• FOREIGN INVESTMENT OF DOMESTIC ASSETS WILL BE MORE EXPENSIVE
25
ADVANTAGE OF A WEAKER CURRENCY
• PRODUCERS WILL SELL MORE EXPORTS
• IT BECOMES CHEAPER FOR FOREIGNERS TO TRAVEL INTO THE COUNTRY
• FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN DOMESTIC ASSETS WILL BECOME CHEAPER
26
DISADVANTAGES WEAKER CURRENCY
• DOMESTIC CONSUMERS PAY MORE FOR IMPORTS
• IT BECOMES MORE EXPENSIVE TO TRAVEL OUTSIDE THE COUNTRY
• MORE EXPENSIVE TO INVEST IN FOREIGN ASSETS
27
FOREX
• Aggregate Demand = Overall Demand: if $>, then AD > and U.S. prices go up.
• If GDP >, then AS goes up and inflation occurs
Expansionary Monetary Policy to Counteract a Recession w/ reinforcing effect on
Net Exports
Res. Ratio
Disc. Rate Buy Bonds
ER ,therefore MS causing i% which leads to IG
so AD ,resulting in PL and GDPR ,making u%
AD = Aggregate Demand
PL = Price Level
GDPR = Real Gross Domestic Product
u% = Unemployment Rate
S$ = Supply of Dollars in FOREX
M = Imports, XN = Net Exports
ER = Excess Reserves
MS = Money Supply
i% = Nominal Interest Rate
IG = Gross Private Investment
D$= Demand for dollars in FOREX
X = Exports
=
And now! Because i% either D$ or S$ which causes $ making U.S. goods
relatively and foreign goods relatively causing X and
M which means XN thereby reinforcing the increase in AD already caused by
the increase in IG.
cheaper more expensive
Contractionary Monetary Policy to Counteract Inflation w/ reinforcing effect on
Net Exports
Res. Ratio
Disc. Rate Sell Bonds
ER ,therefore MS causing i% which leads to IG
so AD ,resulting in PL and GDPR ,making u%
AD = Aggregate Demand
PL = Price Level
GDPR = Real Gross Domestic Product
u% = Unemployment Rate
S$ = Supply of Dollars in FOREX
M = Imports, XN = Net Exports
ER = Excess Reserves
MS = Money Supply
i% = Nominal Interest Rate
IG = Gross Private Investment
D$= Demand for dollars in FOREX
X = Exports
=
And now! Because i% either D$ or S$ which causes $ making U.S. goods
relatively and foreign goods relatively causing X and
M which means XN thereby reinforcing the decrease in AD already caused by
the decrease in IG.
more expensive cheaper
Expansionary Fiscal Policy Side-effect:
‘Crowding-out’ of Investment and Net Exports
A possible side-effect of increased government spending
and reduced taxes is a budget deficit which may lead to the ‘crowding-out’ of Gross Private Investment (IG) and
Net Exports (XN)
When G or T , then government must borrow in order to continue
spending. This leads to an increase in the demand for loanable funds
or a decrease in the supply of loanable funds, which results in r % .
This change in r % leads to IG . In addition, the increase in r% causes
D$ and/or S$ as investors seek higher returns in the U.S. This leads to
$ which leads to X and M , so XN . Because IG and XN are direct
components of AD, these decreases offset some of the increase in AD.
Contractionary Fiscal Policy Side-effect:
‘Crowding-in’ of Investment and Net Exports
A possible side-effect of decreased government spending
and increased taxes is a budget surplus which may lead to the ‘crowding-in’ of Gross Private Investment (IG) and
Net Exports (XN)
When G or T , then government develops a budget surplus
This leads to a decrease in the demand for loanable funds
or an increase in the supply of loanable funds, which results in r % .
This change in r % leads to IG . In addition, the decrease in r% causes
D$ and/or S$ as investors seek higher returns abroad. This leads to
$ which leads to X and M , so XN . Because IG and XN are direct
components of AD, these increases offset some of the decrease in AD.
An appreciation of the U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market could be caused by a decrease in which of the following? (a) U.S. interest rates (b) The U.S. consumer price index (c) Demand for the dollar by U.S. residents (d) Exports from the U.S. (e) The tariff on goods imported into the U.S.
(b) The U.S. consumer price index Lower prices increase demand for U.S. exports and appreciate the dollar.
If the real interest rate in the U.S. increases relative to that of the rest of the world, capital should flow (a) into the U.S. and the dollar will depreciate (b) into the U.S. and the dollar will appreciate (c) out of the U.S. and the dollar will depreciate (d) out of the U.S. and the dollar will appreciate (e) out of the U.S. and the value of the dollar will not change
(b) into the U.S. and the dollar will appreciate Higher U.S. interest rates attract more demand for our financial capital [CDs and bonds] & financial flows of foreign money will flow in to the U.S. to purchase these.
Assume that the world operates under a flexible exchange rate system. If the central bank of Mexico increases its MS but other countries do not change theirs, Mexico’s inflation rate and the international value of the Mexican peso will most likely change in which of the following ways? International Inflation Rate Value of the Peso a. Increase Appreciate b. Increase Depreciate c. Increase No change d. Decrease Appreciate e. Decrease Depreciate
b. Increase Depreciate An increase in Mexico’s MS means “more pesos chasing the same goods” as before, bringing on higher prices. This would decrease demand for Mexico’s exports, depreciating the peso.
Assuming fixed exchange rates, if Mexico’s rate of inflation increases relative to its trading partners, Mexico’s imports and exports will most likely change in which of the following ways? Imports Exports a. Decrease Decrease b. Decrease Increase c. Increase Decrease d. Increase Increase e. No change No change
c. Increase Decrease A higher price level in Mexico will decrease demand for their products, depreciating the peso. However, the increase in the peso currency price relative to other countries makes their goods cheaper so their imports increase while their exports decrease as they have to pay more pesos
If the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the British pound changed from $2 per one pound to $3 per one pound, and domestic prices in both countries stayed the same, then the U.S. dollar would (a) depreciate, making U.S. imports from Britain more expensive (b) depreciate, making U.S. imports from Britain cheaper (c) appreciate, making U.S. imports from Britain more expensive (d) appreciate, making U.S. imports from Britain cheaper (e) purchase 3 times more British goods than before the change occurred
(a) depreciate, making U.S. imports from Britain more expensive
If the exchange rate went from $2 per one pound to $3 per one pound, and domestic prices in both countries stayed the same, then………The U.S. dollar goes down in value because a pound cost me $2, now it costs $3, making pounds more expensive and therefore the Supply of U.S. dollars would decrease because that is what Americans and Brits will be taking out of the banks to use.
Which of the following groups would most likely gain from unanticipated inflation?
(a) Landlords who own apartments in cities with rent controls.
(b) Individuals who have fixed retirement incomes.
(c) Individuals who earn high incomes
(d) Individuals who have borrowed money at fixed interest rates
(e) Banks that have loaned all excess reserves at a fixed interest rate.
(d) Individuals who have borrowed
money at fixed interest rates
Borrowers borrowed todays money & paid back “cheaper” money.
“Redelsheimer’s Graphs to Know” AP Macro Review Copyright 2005
Rea
l In
tere
st R
ate
, r
Quantity of Loanable Funds
LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET
r
D
Q
S
This graph shows how the supply and demand for loanable funds affects real interest rates!
“Redelsheimer’s Graphs to Know” AP Macro Review Copyright 2005
Loanable Funds Market Graph (Long-Term Interest Rates)
What changes Supply:
1. Increase in Household savings
2. Increase in Gov’t savings
3. Increase in Business savings
4. Increase in Business savings
5. Increase in Foreigners’ savings
What changes Demand: 1. Increase in Household
borrowing 2. Increase in business
Investment 3. Increase in Foreign
borrowing 4. Increase in Government
borrowing (When the gov’t has a budget deficit!) = (the crowding -out effect)