“forest management and marketing in a global investment environment” marc walley, forest...
TRANSCRIPT
FOREST MANAGEMENT AND MARKETING IN
A GLOBAL INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
Southeastern Regional Forest Landowner Conference
Valdosta, GA
Marc Walley
October 28, 2014
1CONFIDENTIAL |
OUTLINE
Timberland investments “101”
Global markets and management implications
What matters most and what matters less?
2
FOREST INVESTMENT ASSOCIATES (FIA)
Registered investment adviser founded in 1986
HQ and main office in Atlanta
Field offices across U.S. and in South America
2.4 million acres in 21 states and Brazil
54 employees – 25 are foresters
Employee-owned, entrepreneurial firm
Recognized for high standards and strong
culture
Company logo – The Broad Arrow
3
FIA OPERATIONAL FOOTPRINT
The areas highlighted represent counties / countries in which FIA’s existing clients own timberland.
As of June 30, 2014
Location Acres
AL 123,765
AR 118,537
CA 43,725
FL 209,383
GA 322,440
LA 7,155
ME 61,898
MO 2,691
MS 202,764
NC 224,916
NH 750
NY 4,205
OR 68,618
PA 81,550
SC 276,811
TN 100
TX 199,601
VA 162,059
WA 31,244
WI 63,350
WV 21,670
Brazil 144,595
Grand Total 2,371,826
2,371,826 Acres Under Management
4
WHY TIMBER? Benefits of a timberland investment
Asset Diversification
Don’t put all your eggs in one basket
Risk Reduction
Minimize volatility of portfolio returns
“Real” Rate of Return
Inflation hedge
Biological Growth
Trees don’t read the Wall Street Journal
5
MANAGEMENT OBJECTIVE AND STRATEGIES
Maximize long-term total return
Manage for optimal biological growth
Utilize intensive forestry with proven economics
Maximize cash flow from effective marketing and timing of timber
sales
Maximize cash flow through secondary sources of income besides
timber sales
Capitalize on alternative use options and land sales when such
opportunities yield greater returns than traditional timberland
management
6|
Understanding global wood sources and species is key to understanding markets
GLOBAL WOOD SUPPLY – SOURCE AND SPECIES
U.S. PNW: Douglas
fir, Hemlock
U.S. South:
Loblolly pine
U.S. Northeast:
Black cherry,
Maple, Red oak
Brazil & Uruguay:
Loblolly pine,
EucalyptusAustralia:
Radiata pine,
Eucalyptus
New
Zealand:
Radiata pine
SE Asia: Acacia,
various tropical
Canada: Douglas
fir, Hemlock
Canada: Spruce
fir
Chile: Radiata
pine, Eucalyptus
7|
Understanding global wood flow is key to understanding markets
China continues to be a leading
importer of logs and finished products,
but Japan, Korea, and India are viable
markets
The United States is an important
exporter to both Asian markets (from
Pacific Northwest) and Europe (from
the U.S. South)
Brazil, New Zealand and Chile may
continue to grow market share at the
expense of countries such as Russia,
Canada, and parts of Africa
GLOBAL WOOD FLOW TRENDS
8
MANAGEMENT AND MARKETS IN THE SOUTH
Diverse markets for both large and small timber
Mostly domestic demand and local processing
Limited but growing export demand
Given the long-term nature of forest investments our management regimes will
not change significantly, however …
Generally rotations are shorter
Thinning is customary
Pellet demand has positively impacted Atlantic seaboard markets
Market uncertainty in the future means we need to maximize our options
Decisions to sell sawlogs to a domestic producer or exporter or to sell pulpwood
for pulp production or pellets depends more on the buyers in the
marketplace at the time of harvest than our management regime
Certification can be an important factor for procurement organizations
9
MANAGEMENT AND MARKETS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST (PNW)
Market is driven almost exclusively by sawlog demand
Domestic markets are very good – bigger sawmills than in the South
Export log markets are well-established and important
Management regimes have changed
Shorter rotations – 40 years today vs “old growth” mentality of past
Development of small-log sawmills
Commercial thinning is still not customary
Generally less intensive management than in the South
Understanding the cyclical nature of PNW export markets is important
Selling timber below 2,500 feet elevation west of I-5 in 4th and 1st quarter
can yield significant premiums
Certification is less a factor in the PNW
10|
SIZE OF U.S. MARKET DOMINATES FOREST PRODUCTS DEMAND
11|
Market Value by Geography ($MM)
Other
US Lake States
Canada
US Appalachia
US Northeast
South & Central America
Australia & New Zealand
US Northwest
US South
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
Source: Timberlink
WHERE ARE THE WORLD’S TIMBERLAND INVESTMENTS?
12
Where have we been?
Housing starts plumetted …
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Housin
g S
tart
s,
‘000
Average Total Starts (SAAR)
13
Resulting in collapse of forest products consumption …
Source: Forest Economic Advisers (FEA)
Residential down 78%
14
And timber prices followed lumber production … down!
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
PS
T S
tum
pa
ge
Pri
ces
$/T
on
So
uth
ern
Lu
mb
er
Pro
du
cti
on
BB
F
Lumber Production Southern Stumpage
Source: FEA, TimberMart South
15
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
1050
1200
1350
1999
2004
2009
2014
2019
Mil
lio
ns
of
Sq
ua
re M
eter
sThe Canadian pine beetle epidemic will constrain supply
• An unprecedented pine beetle epidemic in Canada has wiped out millions of acres of forest
• 55% of the standing lodge pole pine timber in western Canada as of 2000 is now dead
• 30%+ of U.S. lumber demand is met from Canadian supply, the single largest non-U.S. source
• Additional Canadian supply constraints due to reduction of allowable annual cut in eastern provinces
Volume of Live Canadian Lodgepole Pine Affected Area
|
Liv
e T
ree
s in
20
00
To
da
y
Source: Biodivcanada.ca
16
Southern lumber production to exceed previous peak
CONFIDENTIAL |
Source: FEA
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Bill
ion
Bo
ard
Fee
t (B
BF)
US South LumberProductionUS South Peak LumberProduction
~19 BBF
17|
US West Coast Log DemandThe West Coast Log Demand Will Be Increasingly Driven by Domestic Demand
Source: FEA
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
21%
24%
27%
30%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Bil
lio
n B
oard
Feet
(BB
F)
Other
Pulp
Log Exports
Plywood
Lumber
Exports Share of Harvests
18CONFIDENTIAL |
SUMMARY
There are multiple benefits to timberland investments,
the primary one being diversification
Global market dynamics have not dramatically
changed forest management and marketing strategies
International markets are more important in the PNW
than in the South
The most important market for U.S. timberland owners
is the U.S. market