FOREST FIRE SIMULATION PROPOSAL

Sophie Schneider, Gordon Read, Evan Holmes, Trevor Isner, Sami Anderson

Introduction

• Waldo Canyon Fire forced 11,000 people from their homes (Summer 2012)

• Entire area was affected by higher temperatures and air pollution

• Burn scars led to severe flooding the following year

Waldo Canyon Fire

Introduction

• Wildfires may be better controlled with the use of simulations that can model behaviors

• Allow us to react to real-world situations more effectively

• Investigative Question: How does forest fire composition affect the behavior of forest fires in the Southern Colorado region?

Variables

Independent Variables Dependent Variables

● Type of vegetation● Distribution of vegetation● Elevation● Humidity● Wind direction and speed● Atmospheric temperature● Cause of fire● Placement of bodies of

water

● Temperature of fire● Movement of fire● Spotting chance● Size

Proposal

• Simulation specifically designed for the Southern Colorado region

• Funding would allow us to deepen the simulation to be more accurate o More tree typeso Weather patterns

• Access to servers with related information would be of use

What is fire?Combustion• Fuel reacts with oxygen to release heat energy (exothermic reaction).

• Gases break down due to heat and make new compounds (carbon dioxide, water, soot…)

• Fuels can be solid, liquid or gas, however combustion only occurs between gasses.

Fire Tetrahedron• Heat, fuel, oxygen, uninhibited chemical chain reaction

o Creates heat to sustain flame

• Redox reactiono Oxygen becomes reduced, fuel becomes oxidized

How Fires WorkFour Stages of Fire• Ignition: Fuel, oxygen and heat form together in a chemical reaction

• Growth: Additional fuel ignites with the initial heat and flame.

• Fully Developed: Fire has covered and consumed most of the fuel

• Decay: Fire has consumed all fuel, causing temperatures to decrease, and eventually leads to a burn out.

Heat Transfer• Radiation: The transfer of energy via waves (through space)

• Convection: The transfer of heat energy due to the

“physical movement” of hot air.

• Conduction: The transfer of heat energy with material, itself. Most fires spread due to conduction

How do forest fires start?

• Human causeso 90% of wildfires caused by humanso Unattended campfires, burning of debris, discarded cigaretteso Intentional acts of arson

• Natural causeso Volcanic eruptionso Lightning strikes

Unusually long-lasting hot lightning strikes Currents of less voltage, but strikes occur for longer

periods of time

What are the types of plants in the Southern Colorado region?

• Plants used in simulation:o Trees o Shrubs/undergrowth

• There are many different tree and plant species common to Southern Coloradoo Due to lack of funding, only three tree

species and three shrubs will be highlighted.

Tree Species

Type of Tree Elevation Tree Height

Characteristics

Blue Spruce 6,700-11,500 feet 70-115 feet thin bark, shallow roots, low branches

Ponderosa Pine 6,300-9,500 feet 40-160 feet thick bark, high-moisture content, open crowns, high branches

White Fir 7,900-10,200 feet 60-125 feet thin bark, resinous wood, low branches

Undergrowth Type of Shrub

Elevation Shrub Height

Moisture Requirement

Western Chokecherry

4,500-8,500 feet

6-10 feet moderate

Sagebrush 4,500-9,500 feet

4-6 feet low

Fourwing Saltbrush

4,000-8,000 feet

0-4 feet low

What weather conditions affect the behavior of a forest fire?

Temperature:● When underbrush receives solar radiation, it

evaporates internal moisture, allowing them to be more susceptible to burning

● Higher susceptibility to burning: more underbrush ignites faster, spreading fire quickly.

● Afternoons are usually the hottest, and therefore the most likely time for fires to start or spread.

What weather conditions affect the behavior of a forest fire?

Wind:● Most unpredictable factor

● Supplies fire with oxygen, giving it more energy

● Stronger winds can push fire into a certain direction, accelerating it

● Makes fuel (underbrush) dry faster by transporting moisture

● Large fires can develop their own, very strong, wind patterns

Spotting:

• Embers from fire are picked up by wind and can land outside of fire area

• Can start new fires or accelerate growth of fire

• Usually the reason for fires crossing roads, rivers, etc.

What weather conditions affect the behavior of a forest fire?

Moisture:● Amount of water vapor in the air● Moisture absorbs heat from fire, making fuels

harder to ignite● When air is saturated with moisture, moisture is

released as rain○ Greatly raises moisture levels in fuels○ Helps extinguish fires

How will the simulation be created?

• Plant Class• Majority of actors

• Two Sub-classes• Variables not applicable to both

• Methods apply to all

Class →

Variables →

Methods →

Tree Shrub

barkThickbranchStartleafType

shrubType

   

Sub-class →

Variables →

Plant

burnRatemoistureelevMinelevMaxheightageProx

resist()checkProx()

How will the simulation be created?

• Fire Classo Not in the original worldo startType based on user Inputo Has a chance to spoto Will remove the objects from the worldo Might go out on its own

Fire

startTypeTemperaturespotChancewindSpeed

windDirect

burn()getSpotChance()

spot()getWindInfo()

goOut()jumpWater()

Class →

Variables →

Methods →

How will the simulation be created?

• Very simple

• Chance to block fire based on thickness of river/lake side in which fire approaches

Water

blockFire()

Class →

Method →

HypothesisBased on preliminary research, we predict:

If a simulation of a forest consisting of densely spaced trees featuring thin bark, shallow roots, low branches, and resinous wood in a dry, windy climate is ignited, then the simulation will demonstrate higher temperatures and a faster spread rate than a forest with thick bark, high moisture content, and mature trees because these characteristics are reflected in real-world wildfires.

Conclusion

• We ask for funding and access to information to help us expand upon our simulation to model real-world situations more accurately.o Research different variables (trees, weather conditions,

distributions, etc.), running and testing the simulation, increase workforce so simulation is ready for this summer,...

• Simulation would allow effective response to and reduced effects of future wildfires such as the Waldo Canyon Fire.

Photo creditshttp://public.media.smithsonianmag.com/legacy_blog/05_22_2013_forest-fire.jpg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/03/Waldocanyon.jpg/300px-Waldocanyon.jpg

http://appraisalforensicsinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/waldo-canyon-fire-1.jpg

http://www.animatedgif.net/fireexplosions/explosion2_e0.gif

http://s454.photobucket.com/user/oldcatman/media/forest_fire_hg_clr.gif.html

http://www.treeinabox.com/Ponderosa-Pine.html

http://www.realchristmastrees.org/dnn/Education/TreeVarieties/ConcolorFir.aspx

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/colorado+blue+spruce

http://calphotos.berkeley.edu/imgs/512x768/0000_0000/1012/0856.jpeg

http://www.tarleton.edu/Departments/range/Shrublands/Miscellaneous/miscshrub.html

http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/mt/about/?cid=nrcs144p2_057763

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