forest ecosystem managementweb.forestry.ubc.ca/ecomodels/presents/kimmins 2005 world... ·...
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J. P. (Hamish) J. P. (Hamish) KimminsKimmins
Professor of Forest Ecology,Professor of Forest Ecology,
Canada Research Chair, Ecosystem Management Canada Research Chair, Ecosystem Management ModellingModelling,,
Department of Forest Sciences, Faculty of Forestry,
University of British Columbia,
Vancouver, B.C.
Forest Ecosystem ManagementForest Ecosystem Management
An Environmental necessity,An Environmental necessity,
but but
Is it a Practical Reality or Simply an Is it a Practical Reality or Simply an EcotopianEcotopian
Ideal?Ideal?
3 billion 3 billion
more more
peoplepeople
Population doubledPopulation doubled
Population peak: Population peak:
9 9 –– 10 billion in 10 billion in
20702070 --21002100
40 years40 years
3 3 -- 4 billion more 4 billion more
peoplepeople
People People –– the ultimate problemthe ultimate problem
Pogo: Pogo: ““We have been out and seen the enemy, and they are usWe have been out and seen the enemy, and they are us””
People Pressure: Some ExamplesPeople Pressure: Some Examples
ChinaChina
IndonesiaIndonesia
ThailandThailand
BrazilBrazil
AfricaAfrica
IndiaIndia
CanadaCanada
The TakeThe Take--home Message From My Talkhome Message From My Talk
�� Forest ecosystems are complex, but are frequently Forest ecosystems are complex, but are frequently
managed simplisticallymanaged simplistically
�� Management for individual values rarely sustains all Management for individual values rarely sustains all
valuesvalues
�� Forests should be managed as ecological systems Forests should be managed as ecological systems –– by by
ecosystem managementecosystem management
A problem is an issue that does not get solved.A problem is an issue that does not get solved.
An issue that gets solved quickly is not a problemAn issue that gets solved quickly is not a problem
Problem issues often persist because they are Problem issues often persist because they are
complex, but only simple solutions are offeredcomplex, but only simple solutions are offered
Success in managing forests requires that Success in managing forests requires that
the biological, physical and human social the biological, physical and human social
complexities be addressedcomplexities be addressed
William of William of OccamOccam::
Do not posit complexity more than necessary,Do not posit complexity more than necessary,
oror
As simple as possible, but as complex as necessaryAs simple as possible, but as complex as necessary
OccamOccam’’ss RasorRasor
Einstein:Einstein:
As simple as possible, but no simplerAs simple as possible, but no simpler
Forest Ecosystem ManagementForest Ecosystem Management
What is it and how do we achieve it?What is it and how do we achieve it?
•What is forestry and what is FEM?
• Elements of FEM
• Prerequisites for FEM
• FEM planning tools
�� Conclusions:Conclusions: Practical reality or Practical reality or ecotopiaecotopia??
ForestryForestry
The art (skill), practice, science and business The art (skill), practice, science and business
of managing forest stands and landscapes to of managing forest stands and landscapes to
sustain an ecologically possible and socially sustain an ecologically possible and socially
desirable balance of values over appropriate desirable balance of values over appropriate
spatial and time scalesspatial and time scales
The Two Responsibilities of ForestryThe Two Responsibilities of Forestry
1.1. To change the way in which a forest is managed as the To change the way in which a forest is managed as the
desired balance of values and environmental services desired balance of values and environmental services
from that forest changes.from that forest changes.
2.2. To reject current practices and resist proposed new To reject current practices and resist proposed new
practices that are inconsistent with the ecology and practices that are inconsistent with the ecology and
sociology of the desired values and services over sociology of the desired values and services over
ecologically appropriate temporal and spatial scales.ecologically appropriate temporal and spatial scales.
How do we judge what is consistent with the How do we judge what is consistent with the
ecology of the values?ecology of the values?
Forestry is about peopleForestry is about people-- their values, needs and desirestheir values, needs and desires
It is also about sustaining the ecosystems on which It is also about sustaining the ecosystems on which
these values, needs and desires are dependentthese values, needs and desires are dependent
WoodWood
NonNon--wood productswood products
WaterWater
WildlifeWildlife
EmploymentEmployment
Economics Economics -- wealth creation wealth creation
Energy Energy -- fuelfuel
Spiritual valuesSpiritual values
Environmental protectionEnvironmental protection
AestheticsAesthetics
RecreationRecreation
Biological conservationBiological conservation
Ecosystem processesEcosystem processes
World urban population: World urban population:
32% in 1955; estimated that 32% in 1955; estimated that
it will be 60% in 2025it will be 60% in 2025
Cairo: >19 million by day
Shanghai: 17 million
Urbanization:Urbanization: it is it is
changing attitudes changing attitudes
towards, and values towards, and values
desired from, forests.desired from, forests.
So forestry must changeSo forestry must change
When people want cheap When people want cheap
wood and wealthwood and wealth
What is the What is the
relative relative
sustainability of sustainability of
these two these two
approaches? approaches?
IT DEPENDSIT DEPENDS
Timber exploitation Timber exploitation
–– high gradinghigh grading
Variable Variable
retention retention
harvestingharvesting
When people When people
want other valueswant other values
Partial harvestingPartial harvesting
Ecosystem Condition (Seral Stage)
TT
II
MM
EE
What is Forest Ecosystem Management?What is Forest Ecosystem Management?
•• Managing forests as ecosystems for multiple valuesManaging forests as ecosystems for multiple values
•• FocussingFocussing on what ecosystem structures and processes to maintainon what ecosystem structures and processes to maintain
•• Managing across spatial scalesManaging across spatial scales –– managing for both stand and managing for both stand and
landscape valueslandscape values
•• Accepting disturbance and change as a natural and necessary partAccepting disturbance and change as a natural and necessary part of of
forest ecosystemsforest ecosystems
•• Using different management practices in different types of Using different management practices in different types of
ecosystemecosystem
Elements of Forest Ecosystem ManagementElements of Forest Ecosystem Management
SustainabilitySustainability
Sound ecological understandingSound ecological understanding
Recognizes complexity and connectednessRecognizes complexity and connectedness
Dynamic character of ecosystemsDynamic character of ecosystems
Context and scaleContext and scale
Humans asHumans as ecosystem componentsecosystem components
Adaptability and accountabilityAdaptability and accountability
Prerequisites for Ecosystem ManagementPrerequisites for Ecosystem Management
Appropriate tenure systemsAppropriate tenure systems
Establish long term objectives Establish long term objectives –– a desired forest futurea desired forest future
Adequate inventoryAdequate inventory
Acceptance of the dynamic nature oAcceptance of the dynamic nature of forest ecosystemsf forest ecosystems
Basing FEM on the concept Basing FEM on the concept of of ecological rotationsecological rotations
Prerequisites for Ecosystem ManagementPrerequisites for Ecosystem Management
Appropriate tenure systemsAppropriate tenure systems
Establish long term objectives Establish long term objectives –– a desired forest futurea desired forest future
Adequate inventoryAdequate inventory
Acceptance of the dynamic nature oAcceptance of the dynamic nature of forest ecosystemsf forest ecosystems
Basing FEM on the concept Basing FEM on the concept of of ecological rotationsecological rotations
Economic sustainabilityEconomic sustainability
Use of ecologicallyUse of ecologically--based forest planning, communication and public based forest planning, communication and public
involvement toolsinvolvement tools
How to Evaluate Sustainability: The How to Evaluate Sustainability: The
Concept of Ecological RotationConcept of Ecological RotationEcosystem Condition
Ecosystem Condition
TimeTime
DisturbanceDisturbance
Short ecological rotationShort ecological rotation
Intermediate ecological rotation
Long ecological rotation
The Concept of Ecological RotationThe Concept of Ecological Rotation
Ecosystem Condition
Ecosystem Condition
TimeTime
1. Rotation too short1. Rotation too short
HarvestHarvestSustainable
Non-sustainable
The Concept of Ecological RotationThe Concept of Ecological Rotation
Ecosystem Condition
Ecosystem Condition
TimeTime
2. Ecosystem recovery too slow2. Ecosystem recovery too slow
HarvestHarvestSustainable
Non-sustainable
The Concept of Ecological RotationThe Concept of Ecological Rotation
Ecosystem Condition
Ecosystem Condition
TimeTime
3. Degree of disturbance too great 3. Degree of disturbance too great
HarvestHarvestSustainable
Non-sustainable
Ecosystem Management ModelsEcosystem Management Models
Necessary Planning, Communication and Necessary Planning, Communication and
DecisionDecision--support Toolssupport Tools
EcosystemEcosystem--based, multibased, multi--value hybrid simulation models as a value hybrid simulation models as a
necessary tool for:necessary tool for:
-- the assessment of ecosystem managementthe assessment of ecosystem management
-- assessment of Criteria and Indicators of sustainable forest manassessment of Criteria and Indicators of sustainable forest managementagement
-- scenario analysisscenario analysis
-- value tradeoff analysisvalue tradeoff analysis
-- communication to multiple stakeholderscommunication to multiple stakeholders
Paradigms for a Paradigms for a NewNew ForestryForestry
•• Ecosystem managementEcosystem management
•• Adaptive management and monitoringAdaptive management and monitoring
•• ZonationZonation
•• Variable retentionVariable retention
•• Emulation of natural disturbance or Emulation of natural disturbance or
natural range of variationnatural range of variation
•• ResultsResults--based based vs.vs. regulationregulation--basedbased
All All
needneed
forecastingforecasting
toolstools
Three Categories of Model In Three Categories of Model In
ForestryForestry
•Historical Bioassay - projection of the past
(experience) into the future
• Process simulation - knowledge-based
forecasting
• Hybrid simulation – combination of experience and
knowledge as the basis for prediction.
What Types of Forecasting Tools?What Types of Forecasting Tools?
Stand level ecosystem management models:
AVIGATOR : FORECAST User InterfaceAVIGATOR : FORECAST User InterfaceNNFORECASTFORECAST
Non-spatial ecosystem
management stand model
Effect of Douglas-fir over-story on shrub biomass
Timber management table:
Stand-level Visualization
Dispersed retentionDispersed retention
Aggregated retentionAggregated retention
e.g. Variable retention e.g. Variable retention
designsdesigns
What Types of Forecasting Tools?What Types of Forecasting Tools?
Stand level ecosystem management models:
FORCEEFORCEE
Spatially-explicit,
individual tree,
ecosystem
management model
What Types of Forecasting Tools?What Types of Forecasting Tools?
Landscape level ecosystem management model:
LLEMSLLEMS
Local landscape
ecosystem
management model
for complex cut block
design – under
development
LLEMSLocal Landscape Ecosystem Management Simulator
Trees Ecotone Open
* Is this a clearcut?
* What will the future
forest species composition be?
* How will Douglas-fir
compete with western
hemlock?
* Will shade tolerant
hardwoods be able to grow?
What Types of Forecasting Tools?What Types of Forecasting Tools?
Spatial, structural and functional complexity at the small to
medium-size watershed landscape scale, with polygon
(stand ) interactions
POSSIBLE FOREST
FUTURES:
Multiple value, watershed-
scale, forest landscape
management and
scenario analysis/ value
tradeoff model
POSSIBLE FOREST
FUTURES:
watershed landscape
management model
LLEMSLocal Landscape Ecosystem Management Simulator
Trees Ecotone Open
* Is this a clearcut?
* What will the future
forest species composition be?
* How will Douglas-fir
compete with western
hemlock?
* Will shade tolerant
hardwoods be able to grow?
LLEMS: complex
cutblock simulator
FORCEE:
Individual tree,
complex stand model
FORECASTFORECASTNon-spatial ecosystem
management stand model
Visualization
software – stand and
landscape
DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM: DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM: Modelling FrameworkModelling Framework
Merchantable Merchantable
VolumeVolume
Ecosystem C Ecosystem C
StorageStorage
Snags (>25cm Snags (>25cm dbhdbh))
Early Seral Shrub Early Seral Shrub
Cover (%)Cover (%)
ProjectionProjection InterpretationInterpretation
StandStand--level Modellevel Model
(FORECAST)(FORECAST)
ForestForest--level Timber Supply Modellevel Timber Supply Model
(ATLAS)(ATLAS)Wildlife Habitat Supply ModelWildlife Habitat Supply Model
((SimForSimFor))
Visualization Visualization
SoftwareSoftware
PolygonPolygon--
BasedBasedRasterRaster--
BasedBased
ATLAS: forest-level model
FORECAST: stand-level,
ecosystem management model
SIMFOR : wildlife
habitat model
VISUALIZATION:
stand & landscape level
POSSIBLE FOREST
FUTURES: watershed
landscape management
model
LLEMSLocal Landscape Ecosystem Management Simulator
Trees Ecotone Open
* Is this a clearcut?
* What will the future
forest species composition be?
* How will Douglas-fir
compete with western
hemlock?
* Will shade tolerant
hardwoods be able to grow?
LLEMS: complex
cutblock simulator
Overall System of Ecosystem Management ModelsOverall System of Ecosystem Management Models
FORCEE:
Individual tree,
complex stand model
Is FEM Possible?Is FEM Possible?
The Evolution of ForestryThe Evolution of Forestry
Sustainable Exploitation Sustainable Exploitation —— Passive Management Passive Management —— Active ManagementActive Management
Replaced byReplaced by
NonNon--sustainable exploitationsustainable exploitation
Leads toLeads to
Resource Resource
depletiondepletion
Administrative forestryAdministrative forestryVariable
results; often
single valueEvolves intoEvolves into
EcologicallyEcologically--based forestry, based forestry,
often initially timber biasedoften initially timber biased
Sustained Sustained
timber timber
productionproduction
Social forestry Social forestry –– ecologicallyecologically--based, based,
multimulti--value ecosystem management. value ecosystem management.
FOREST ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENTFOREST ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT
Application of social and biophysical Application of social and biophysical
sciences that respect the ecology sciences that respect the ecology
and sociology of desired valuesand sociology of desired values
Local people with Local people with
experienceexperience--based based
wisdomwisdom
NonNon--locals without locals without
local knowledgelocal knowledge
Pressure from Pressure from
ecologically ecologically
inappropriate inappropriate
belief systems belief systems
and incomplete and incomplete
knowledge about knowledge about
naturenature