foresight of the surface technology in manufacturing … · handbook of manufacturing engineering...

Foresight of the Surface Technology in Manufacturing

Leszek A. Dobrzanski* and Anna D. Dobrzanska-DanikiewiczFaculty of Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science and Engineering, Silesian University of Technology, Gliwice,Poland

Abstract

This chapter of the book presents a forecast development of materials surface engineering over thenearest 20 years. The proposed methodological approach and the relevant selected results of theresearch carried out using neural networks and contextual matrices are presented. Contextualmatrices were used for the graphical presentation of a strategic position of the critical materialssurface engineering technologies. Critical technologies are such having best development prospectsand/or key significance in industry. For the purpose of preparing forecasts and analyses, expertstudies were carried out with the e-Delphix method using information technology. The probabilisticmultivariant scenarios of future events concerning materials surface engineering were created basedon the data acquired from experts according to the results of computer simulations made usingartificial neural networks. The original data from the experts also served to perform furtherinvestigations into the importance of the new technologies, according to the new approach, andthe correctness of such approach was verified by comparing the results of heuristic research with theresults of classical materials science research for 35 diverse technology groups. The strategicpositions of 140 critical materials surface engineering technologies were determined by acting inconsistency with the new approach and using own software and custom conceptual matrices. Hiddenexpert knowledge was thus converted, using the analytical tools and quantitative methods dedicatedto this task, into a publicly available open knowledge. The relevant technologies were described andcharacterized by harmonized criteria using roadmaps and technology information sheets. The newapproach described in this chapter, supported with extended information technology, is suitable fordirect applications in other areas of knowledge while maintaining economically reasonable costs.

Introduction

A belief is underlying an interest in the field of the computer-aided prediction of development ofmaterials surface engineering, substantiated with numerous practical examples that the fundamental,current civilizational objectives can be achieved by developing material engineering. The producersof goods satisfying human needs have at their disposal practically an unlimited number of state-of-the-art engineering materials and the related material process technologies. To satisfy customerdemands, engineering materials have to be designed and applied that, when undergoing appropriateengineering processes for formulating their geometric form and especially structureformation – ensuring the material’s appropriate physiochemical properties – will guarantee theexpected functional uses of the products manufactured using them. It should be noted that theproducer–client relations have substantially changed in the recent years as signified by a demand todeliver materials with the desired structure and physiochemical properties meeting functional

*Email: [email protected]

Handbook of Manufacturing Engineering and TechnologyDOI 10.1007/978-1-4471-4976-7_26-9# Springer-Verlag London 2013

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requirements determined by a client’s expectations and usable functions of products (i.e., materialson demand). The rules of materials producers’ market have been clearly replaced by the customermarket despite the fact that just a few years ago market products had been only manufactured ofengineering materials with their chemical composition, structure, and properties, and even dimen-sions, absolutely imposed bymanufacturers’ production timetable and by plans for a limited – by thenature of things – number of engineering materials. It is very common these days that productdesign, and, in consequence, the manufacture of functional products, is not connected with require-ments set for chemical composition, structure, and properties of material cores, or actually a productor its element, but for their surface and, in fact, their surface layer. It is not reasonably substantiatedin engineering calculations and real requirements to ensure the expected properties uniformly acrossthe whole section of a product. The most general aim of such measures, more and more oftenemployed in many industries, is to achieve a structure in the zone around the surface similar toa composite, and this, as a result of scientific and technological experiments lasting for manydecades, has led to the development of multiple technologies of surface layer structure formation,deposition of coatings, including those consisting of many or even several hundred layers, and alsoto the production of surface graded materials. The tailoring of properties of different items tooperational requirements is therefore accomplished through selecting appropriately the core materialand the technologies ensuring its properties (e.g., thermal or thermochemical treatment) and bychoosing at the same time the surface layer treatment technology. Scientific institutions around theglobe are expressing their ongoing and intensifying interest in this field as well.

Foresight stands for overall actions aimed at selecting the most beneficial visions of future and atindicating the ways to implement the future, using the appropriate methods originating fromorganization and management science. Technology foresight consists of looking regularly, overa long-term prospective, into the future of science and technology, economy, and societies, inconjunction with an ability to select strategic technologies aimed at bringing substantial economicand social benefits, the specificity of which is illustrated by the technology foresight triangle (Fig. 1).Technology foresight is focussed on the priority innovative technologies, the implementation of

Fig. 1 Technology foresight triangle (Dobrzański and Dobrzańska-Danikiewicz 2011)


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which brings the highest added value, and, therefore, will contribute over a long term to a highstatistical level of technologies implemented in industry. Multivariant strategies established underthe technology foresight serving to describe alternative development paths and visions of future areto contribute in long term to sustainable development considering the fate and well-being of thefuture generations. The activities performed under the foresight research are concentrated around theexternalization of knowledge based on the transformation of an implicit knowledge available to onlyexperts, specializing in a given field, and into an explicit knowledge available to the widelyunderstood public, which over a long period should lead to the strengthening of a knowledge- andinnovation-based economy.

E-foresight (electronic foresight) is a process of foresight investigations pursued to identify thepriority, innovative technologies and directions of strategic development with reference toa particular thematic area using the Internet. The concept of e-foresight (Dobrzańska-Danikiewicz2011a) associated with the well known and commonly used notions of e-management, e-business,e-commerce, e-banking, e-logistics, e-services, e-administration, and e-education (Dobrzańska-Danikiewicz et al. 2010a) was developed during the practical performance of foresight investiga-tions concerning materials surface engineering, as a result of scientific quests serving to harmonize,streamline, and modernize the process of the foresight studies pursued. The main driving force forimplementing improvements was a broad scale of the studies planned for implementation.

A full overview of the contemporary treatment technologies decisive for the formation of thestructure and properties of engineering materials surface layers (Dobrzańska-Danikiewicz andLukaszkowicz 2010) reveals that over 500 specific technologies of surface treatment and theirnumerous technological variants have been conceived to date. Usually costly manufacturingequipment and the necessary industrial infrastructure with the average depreciation time of approxtwenty years have to be used each time when a relevant technology is selected. A manager’sdecisions are becoming vital in the context of selecting correctly a technology, including relevantdecisions on the investments to be made, and such decisions, in the longer run, are crucial for thesuccess or defeat of the enterprise managed by such a manager. For this reason, it is crucial for long-term economic development to identify the priority, innovative technologies, and their desireddevelopment with pinpointing a product for which they should be applied and also to determinethe development trends of such engineering material properties and structure formation technologiesand also the directions of scientific research in this area within the long-term timeframe of at leasttwenty years, and this is decisive for an economy’s competitiveness. Trial and error must not be usedfor making such important decisions, and this makes it necessary to apply in this area, optionally,a method of credible scientific research into the development prospects of science and technology.A new approach described in this chapter of the book is aided with a computer-aided methodologicalconcept serving to handle this task.

Presentation of a New Approach

A complex methodological apparatus serving to diagnose the key scientific, technological, eco-nomic, and ecological issues in the area of materials surface engineering and to identify thedirections of its strategic development and decision-making pertains essentially to the threeoverlapping fields of knowledge: materials surface engineering forming part of material engineer-ing, technology foresight being part of a widely understood field of organization, and managementand information technology originating from computer science (Fig. 2). The chapter of the bookpresents the forecast development of materials surface engineering over the nearest 20 years. The


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proposed methodological approach and the relevant selected results of the research carried out usingneural networks and contextual matrices are presented. Contextual matrices were used for thegraphical presentation of a strategic position of the critical materials surface engineering technolo-gies. As part of the interdisciplinary studies pursued, a pool of methods was employed includingoriginally matched methods already known in the literature concerning this domain, as well ascompletely new methods developed, verified experimentally for their correctness, and implementedin order to solve specific scientific problems. The selected results of the research conducted arepresented further in the chapter in subchapters due to a limited size of this chapter.

The original reference data constituting a basis for the works performed at the further stages of theresearch comprises the outcomes of classical materials science experiments as well as the results ofcomprehensive expert studies. The overall scope of the materials science experiments performed ispresented in Fig. 3, and details pertaining to this aspect are described comprehensively in the book

Fig. 2 Interdisciplinary methodology of the computer-integrated prediction of the development of materials surfaceengineering in relation to the fields of knowledge and research methodology

Fig. 3 General scope of materials science research


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(Dobrzańska-Danikiewicz et al. 2010b). In particular, the results of our own materials science andheuristic research are carried out for eight groups of specific technologies (S1 to S8) (Dobrzańska-Danikiewicz et al. 2011a, b, c, d, e, 2012a, b; Dobrzańska-Danikiewicz and Drygała 2011;Dobrzańska-Danikiewicz 2010a, 2011b, c; 2012a; Fig. 4), and 36 specific technologies (Table 1)were used for reviewing the correctness of the newly developed methodology of computer-integrated prediction of materials surface engineering development. After achieving the satisfactoryresults of reviewing the correctness of the original methodological concept, it was applied based onthe results of expert studies to identify the strategic position of 140 groups of critical materialssurface engineering technologies regarded as the priority technologies with the best developmentprospects and/or of key significance in industry over the assumed time horizon of 20 years. Theresults of the expert studies provided also original data used for creating the alternative scenarios offuture events dependent upon the evolvement of the individual thematic areas and on the impact ofkey mezofactors, and artificial neural networks implemented in custom software were applied forthis purpose.

A limited group of methods featuring diverse potential applications has to be selected originallyfrom an extensive range in order to put technology foresight into life. A diagram of such methodstogether with their interrelations and monitoring zones and data sources is shown in Fig. 5.Originally selected methods of organization, work, and management had contributed to generatinga set of critical technologies that were next subjected to expert studies pursued in line with theconcept of e-foresight. The pool of critical technologies of materials surface engineering generatedin the course of the works is listed in Table 3 later in the chapter.

Electronic surveys embraced a group of nearly 400 experts from academic, industrial, and publicadministration circles who completed an overall of several hundred multi-question surveys (Hasan

Fig. 4 Specific technologies analyzed in order to review the correctness of the methodology of computer-integratedprediction of materials surface engineering development


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Tab

le1

Materialfortheresearch

andclassificatio

ncriteriaforthegroups

ofS1–

S8specific

technologies

together

with

technologies/groupsof

technologies

distinguished,

subjectedto

experimentaland

comparativ

estudies(D

obrzańska-Danikiewicz2012b)

Group

Materialforresearch

Classificatio

ncriteria

Distin

guishedtechnologies/groupsof

technologies

subjectedto

experimentalandcomparativ

estudies

Item

Sym

bolDescriptio

n

S1Heattreated

andmachinedhotw

ork

alloytool

steelsX40CrM

oV5-1

and32CrM

oV12-28;

powdersof

niobium,tantalum,titanium

,vanadium,

andwolfram

carbides

Typeof

powder

depositedonto

substrateor

lack

thereof

1AS1

Laserremeltin

gof

alloyhotw

orktoolsteelsX40CrM

oV5-1and32CrM

oV12-28

with

outtheuseof

carbidepowdersusinghigh-perform

ance

diodelaser

2BS1

Laser

remeltin

gandalloying

with

powder

NbC

ofalloyhotw

orktool

steels

X40CrM

oV5-1

and32CrM

oV12-28usinghigh-

performance

diodelaser

3CS1

TaC

4DS1

TiC

5ES1

VC

6FS1

WC

S2Heattreated

andmachinedalloy

magnesium

alloys

MCMgA

l12Z

n1,

MCMgA

l9Zn,

MCMgA

l6Zn1

,MCMgA

l3Zn;

powdersof

titanium,

wolfram

,vanadium

andsilicone

carbides,and

alum

inum

oxide

Typeof

powder

depositedonto

substrate

7AS2

Laser

remeltin

gandcladding

ofparticles

TiC

into

surfaceof

casting

magnesium

alloys

usinghigh-

performance

diodelaser

8BS2

WC

9CS2

VC

10DS2

SiC

11ES2

Al 2O3

S3CuZ

n40P

b2copper–zincalloy

Num

berof

layers

form

ingthe

coating

12AS3

Physicalv

apor

depositio

nmonolayer,n

¼1with

reactiv

emagnetron

sputtering

(RMS)

13BS3

Morethan

tenlayers,n

¼15

14CS3

Multilayers,n¼

150


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S4Selectedgrades

ofsteel:meltedwith

conventio

nalmethod:

18CrM

nTi4-4

machine

steelfor

carburizing,

38CrA

lMo6

-10machine

steelfor

nitriding,

37CrM

oB10-4

low-allo

yhot

worktoolsteel,X37CrM

oV5-1hotw

ork

steel,andHS12-0-2+CandHS6-5-2

high-speed

steels;v

acuum

remelted

steels:X37CrM

oV5-1(vac)

and

X40CrM

oV5-1(vac)tool

hotw

orksteels

and40CrW

MoV

B17-11-16

multicom

ponent

steel;electroslag

remeltedhotw

orktool

X40CrM

oV5-

1(es)steel

Typeof

classical

thermochemical

treatm

ent

15AS4

Nitridingandtypesof

nitriding

16BS4

Carburizing

andhigh-tem

perature

carbonitriding

17CS4

Diffusion

boriding

S5Sinteredtool

materialsbasedon

sintered

carbides,cermetals,oxide,andnitride

ceramicsandsialon

Typeof

coatings

deposited

18AS5

Deposition

onto

sintered

tool

materials

ofsimplemonolayer

PVDcoatings

with

cathodicarc

evaporation(CAD)

19BS5

Com

plex

monolayer

Classical

20CS5

Nanocrystallin

e

21DS5

Multilayer,n

<10

22FS5

Multilayer,n

�10

23GS5

Gradedmulticom

ponent

24HS5

Gradedcontinuous

25ES5

Multilayer,n

<10

CVDcoatings

with

classicalhotfi

lament

chem

icalvapordepositio

n(H

FCVD)

S6Polycrystallin

esilicon

waferswith

boron

dopant

Texturizatio

ntype

26AS6

Texturizatio

nAlkalinetexturization

ofpolycrystalline

silicon

27BS6

Laser

texturization

28CS6

Laser

texturizationwith

chem

icaletching

S7Pow

dersof

high-speed

HS6-5-2steel,

cobalt,

andtungsten

carbide

Matrixmaterial

and%

volume

fractio

nof

componentsin

layersof

powders

29AS7

Productionof

graded

tool

materialswith

the

conventio

nal

powders

metallurgy

method

MG-90H

SS/10W

Con

matrixof

high-speed

HS6-5-2

steels

containing

10%

ofvolume

fractio

nof

WCphase

insurface

layer

30BS7

MG-75H

SS/25W

C25

%

31CS7

MG-3Co/97W

Cwith

Co

matrix

containing

97%

(con

tinued)


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Tab

le1

(contin

ued)

Group

Materialforresearch

Classificatio

ncriteria

Distin

guishedtechnologies/groupsof

technologies

subjectedto

experimentalandcomparativ

estudies

Item

Sym

bolDescriptio

n

S8Polylactid

e(PLA);polycarbonate(PC);

poly(ethyleneterephthalate)

(PET);

polystyrene(PS);polymer

composite

with

polyam

ide6matrixcontaining

two

metallizationprecursors:copper

acetylacetonate(II)Cu(acac) 2and

copper

oxide(II)CuO

;A-type

composites(LDPE-H

DPE-PP)and

B-typecomposites(LDPE-H

DPE-PP-

PS-PET)with

differentm

assfractio

ns(1

%,2

%,o

r3%)of

TMPTA

compatib

ilizer,where

LDPE,low

density

polyethylene;H

DPE,h

igh-

density

polyethylene;P

P,isotactic

polypropylene;PS,p

olystyrene;P

ET,

amorphouspoly(ethyleneterephthalate);

TMPTA

,com

patib

ilizer:

trim

ethylolpropane

triacrylate

Physicalp

rocesses

modifying

surface

layerof

polymer

material

32AS8

Modificatio

nof

surface

layerof

selected

polymer

materials

Modificatio

nof

surfacelayerof

PLAwith

corona

discharge

methodusingfoilactiv

ator

33BS8

With

low-tem

peratureplasmageneratedintheairby

agenerator

situated

outsidethematerialmodificatio

nzone

34CS8

With

low-tem

peratureplasmaintheconditionsof

lowerpressure

(0.05–

5hP

a)

35DS8

Byirradiationwith

thedifferentn

umberof

ArF

excimer

laser

impulses

ofsurfaceof

PC,P

ET,PS,and

polymercompositewith

polyam

ide6matrixcontaining

copper

acetylacetonate(II)Cu

(acac)

2andcopper

oxide(II)CuO

36ES8

Byirradiationwith

electron

beam

radiationusingacceleratorof

A-andB-typecomponents

n–numberof

layers


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and Harris 2009) in three subsequent iterations of the studies. The scope of works pursued alsoincluded the creation of surveys, each time, in more than ten versions pertaining separately to each ofthe analyzed thematic areas together with an electronic online editing system.

Fig. 5 The methods of organization, work, and management applied in the course of works performed


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The survey studies were carried out with the e-Delphix method (Dobrzańska-Danikiewicz 2010a, b;Dobrzańska-Danikiewicz et al. 2011f) deriving the main idea of the survey of experts, consisting ofseveral steps, from the classical Delphi method (Costanzo and Mackay 2009; Loveridge 2009; Milleret al. 2009; Georghiou et al. 2008), but differing largely from the method in terms of methodology andin terms of the accompanying expanded information technology encompassing a virtual organization,web platform, and artificial neural networks. A virtual organization represents a system comprised ofmultitask elements created on a voluntary basis, functioning dynamically and structured flexibly,oriented at particular goals, and coordinated by means of information technology, allowing to collect,harmonize, select, disseminate, and manage the explicit and implicit knowledge in cyberspace.A virtual organization can be managed in cyberspace by creating, from the scratch, a web platformbased on a custom concept of a computer system with a hierarchical structure. A separately developedindividual algorithm had to be applied for each of the several dozens constituent modules of theplatform, making up a complex multilevel structure of the platform. The last element of informationtechnology applied in the works followed is represented by artificial neural networks developed usingcommercial software. An indispensable starting point for putting into life the IT goals of the work wasto design a network, and the network was next enhanced with original software SCENNET21 andSCENNET48 for preparing alternative scenarios of future events for materials surface engineering.The computer programs created enabled to search a suboptimal solution randomly using the MonteCarlo method and to interpret and present the outcomes of the research followed in a graphical mannerin diagrams. The approach presented, employing artificial neural networks for creating the alternativescenarios of events, is innovative and experimental and has not been described to date in the literatureof the field.

The original data assembled through the electronic surveys of experts was used in further researchbasing on the original methodological concept for:

• Preparing alternative scenarios concerning the future of materials surface engineering• Identifying the strategic position of the relevant critical technologies using contextual matrices• Preparing technology roadmaps and technology information sheets

The further works performed relate to analyzing a set of various factors classified as:

• Critical macrofactors of general nature existing individually and influencing other factorsstrongly

• Mezofactors occurring in limited numbers and influencing other factors moderately• Specific microfactors occurring in great numbers, characterized by sensitivity to the influence of

other factors.

Three alternative scenarios of future events are considered at the macro-level: an optimistic,neutral, and pessimistic scenario created on the basis of the results of surveys made using an originalcomputer system among several hundred experts. The results of the expert studies wereimplemented as input data into neural networks as a training, validation, and test set. Nine modelsof neural networks were created, of which 7 ones best meeting the set criteria were chosen togenerate the final results of the research by implementing them as function into the computer system,enable to search, randomly, the solutions according to the Monte Carlo method, and to generate thefinal result as graphical diagrams. The final result is a set of probability values that the relevantvariants of events, which depend on the occurrence of specific conditions or special factors, occur.


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The mezo-level is grouping 16 key factors of the general nature influencing most greatly, in thesurveyed experts’ opinion, the predicted development of materials surface engineering, presented inFig. 6, and the 14 thematic areas analyzed were grouped into two research fields (Fig. 7). Theresearch field M (Manufacturing) reflects a manufacturer’s point of view and encompasses produc-tion processes determined by the state of the art and a machine park’s manufacturing capacity,whereas the research field of P (Product) is conditioned by the expected functional and usable

Fig. 6 The mezofactors with the strongest influence on the development of materials surface engineering


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properties stemming from customer needs and is focused on the product and on the material it ismade of.

The microlevel is represented by 140 groups of critical technologies comprising 10 groups oftechnologies selected for each of 14 thematic fields. The groups of critical technologies wereselected from approx. 500 groups of specific technologies considered in the initial phase of theresearch according to the outcomes of studies including a state-of-the-art review, technologicalreview, and a strategic analysis with integrated methods (STEEP, SWOT). Specific technologies canadditionally be differentiated for the individual 140 groups of critical technologies, often differing indetails only which can, however, substantially condition the development prospects of a particulartechnology and its applicability in the industrial practice. Some of the technologies, chosen in anarbitrary manner, were subjected to in-depth materials science and heuristic investigations forreviewing the correctness of the developed methodology, and the overall results were presented inthe Dobrzańska-Danikiewicz et al. (2010b) book publication. A set of contextual matrices wascreated in order to determine the strategic position of the relevant groups of critical and specifictechnologies encompassing the dendrological matrices of technology value, the metrological matri-ces of environment influence, and a matrix of strategies for technologies. The matrices representa tool of a graphical comparative analysis of the individual technologies or their groups, allowing forobjectivized assessment and for determining the recommended action strategies with regard to therelevant technologies or their groups, and also to define the tracks of strategic development. The final

Fig. 7 The thematic fields subject to investigations according to grouping into two research fields: M and P


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outcome of the investigations carried out also appears in the Book of Critical Technologies,grouping a set of several hundred roadmaps and technology information sheets, representinga convenient tool for their comparative analysis according to the selected materials science,technological, or economic criterion.

A single-pole, ten-degree positive scale without zero called a universal scale of relative states(Fig. 8) was used in the surveys made in the course of the research undertaken in order to assess thefactors and phenomena, where 1 is a minimum rate or a compliance level with a given characteristic/phenomenon/factor/statement, while 10 is an extraordinarily high rate or a compliance level witha given characteristic/phenomenon/factor/statement. In the course of the research, the experts werealso evaluating the lifecycle phases of the technologies analyzed or their groups, and a ten-degreescale compatible with the universal scale of relative states had to be established for maintainingconsistency of considerations, and the ten-degree scale was used for an objectivized evaluation ofthe lifecycle of a given technology and group of technologies, where 1 signifies a decliningtechnology and 10 is a technology in its incipient phase. A process of developing a new technologyis accompanied by expenditures for materials, for the construction of new devices, and for remu-neration for the personnel performing research assignments, and the expenditures gradually grow,reaching their maximum at the stage of constructing and testing the prototype installations. In thecase where newly developed solutions meet a manufacturer’s expectations, and one should be awarethat many technologies do not go beyond a prototype testing phase, then a phase of gradualimplementation into production takes place which allows the new technology to generate firstprofits, thus partially offsetting the costs incurred until a breakeven point is attained, i.e., a pointwhere profits equal the expenditures made. A newly developed technology is next transiting to thegrowth phase, becomingmore andmore important for an enterprise’s general processes: first, seriousprofits are generated, but the costs incurred for its improvement and for ongoing modernization ofthe machine park usually involving its automation and robotization, for product customization, andfor promotion continue to absorb large amounts. The proportions change over time as a technologyentering the maturity phase generates higher and higher profits and costs decline, and this is the timelong awaited by the manufacturer called – according to the terminology used in managementsciences – milking the cow or harvesting the crops (Thompson and Strickland 1987; Little 1981;Hofer 1977; Glueck 1980; Henderson 1970). After a period of prosperity, profits from productionusing the technology begin to dwindle which usually mobilizes the company’s management toundertake rehabilitation, modernization, and improvement measures, accompanied bya promotional campaign in the media. The measures are usually moderately effective over time,

Fig. 8 Universal scale of relative states (Dobrzańska-Danikiewicz and Drygała 2011)


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and after a temporary improvement, gradual degradation of the technology – being already in itsbase phase – begins, and then it becomes an obsolescent technology and, as a declining technology,finally exits the market. As regards the presented typical and most classical technology lifecycleshown in Fig. 9, deviations may occur in practice usually as it relates to the duration of individualphases; untypical, sudden exclusion of the technology by other, more modern solutions; or, oncontrary, its quite new applications may be found and partial duplication of its individual lifecyclephases may take place.

Development Scenarios of Materials Surface Engineering

The references (Lindgren and Bandhold 2009; Bradfield et al. 2005; van Notten et al. 2003; Heugensand van Oesterhout 2001; Martelli 2001) indicate that there is no one correct and generally acceptedmethod of creating the scenarios of future events or a management algorithm recommended forimplementation in the scenario creation process. In practice, the algorithm is created each time fromscratch by those undertaking a specific investigation. The same refers to building the scenariospresenting the forecast future of materials surface engineering where a methodological challengeexists in combining skillfully the presentation and description of factors with their varied degree ofgenerality and capturing the cause-and-effect relationships existing between them. In order to solvethe so formulated research task, all the factors analyzed were split into the three groups: macro-,mezo-, and microfactors.

Three alternative scenarios of materials surface engineering development were presented at thehighest level of generality assuming the optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic progress of future eventsat a macro- and mezoscale. It was shown in particular how the development of surface engineering(macroscale) would influence the development of the key mezofactors (Fig. 6) and thematic areas(Fig. 7).

Fig. 9 Technology lifecycle phases


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Macroscenarios

The optimistic scenario race won assumes that the global downturn has been averted and economicgrowth is seen based on peaceful cooperation and international integration. The competitive positionof the European Union is strengthening in the global economy. Numerous reforms are beingsuccessfully implemented in Poland having social approval, the purpose of which is the realtransformation of economy supporting the sustainable development of a knowledge-based econ-omy. Poland is skillfully combining endogenic growth factors with foreign investments and theeffective use of EU funds. The consequence of the widespread actions planned is the gradualimprovement of the society’s education, the wide-scale application of innovative and environmentalfriendly technologies in many thriving small- and medium-sized companies (SMEs) and largecorporations operating more and more often in high-tech industries, effective use of Poland’sagricultural resources, and also the development of modern transportation and ICT infrastructure.The available potential is used adequately to put into life the strategic development goals: people are,statistically, better off; social attitudes are optimistic; and prospects for the coming years bright.

In line with a neutral scenario called progress achieved, the world economic crisis has beenprevented, and the world is slowly returning to the growth path in the paradigm of sustainable growthbased on cooperation and international integration, although the fear of terrorism and local wars is stilllooming which, in unfavorable circumstances, may spread to many countries. The European Unionneeds to fight hard for its position among global economies, especially with regard to China and Indiaemerging as world powers. There are efforts made in Poland, with different outcomes, to tacklereforms aimed at economy transformation, and the reforms are often opposed by the society and thepeople’s reluctance toward change. Poland is attempting to make use of EU funds, but not all themoney is managed effectively. The introduction of a knowledge-based economy and sustainabledevelopment brings such results as the growing education level of the society and its environmentalawareness. The SME sector is developing at a constant but slow rate, and the level of implementing theinnovative and environmental technologies leaves still much to wish for. Large corporations operatemainly in medium–low and medium–high technologies. The country is constantly facing problems inpublic finance, agriculture, and healthcare, and a modern transportation and ICT infrastructure isdeveloping steadily, but relatively slowly. The available potential is only partly used to achieve thestrategic development goals, statistically people are slightly better off but social attitudes are mixed.Theoretically, quite good development prospects for the coming years depend primarily upon thecircumstances in the European and world economy, wise management of public funds in long term,and on how quickly the relevant reforms supported with the society’s involvement are introduced.

The pessimistic scenario inclined plane provides that the economic crisis has been slowed downto some degree only. The world is facing terrorism, growing oil prices, aftermaths of disasters, andlocal wars spreading to more and more countries. The European Union stays behind other globaleconomies, especially China and India emerging as global powers. Usually unsuccessful attemptsare made in Poland to tackle reforms serving to transform economy, and these are facing socialdisapproval and strong reluctance toward changes. The EU funds allocated to Poland dwindle yearby year, and most of the money is used to save the current economy, but the level of investments isplummeting. The implementation of the knowledge-based economy and sustainable developmentconcepts, initially boding well, is now weakening. The SME sector is developing sluggishly, andinnovative environmental technologies cannot usually be applied due to the lack of investments andthe low availability of credits. Large corporations operate in medium–low and medium–hightechnologies, and many of them go bankrupt and move their head offices to Asia. The country isconstantly facing problems in public finance, agriculture, healthcare, education, and transportation


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infrastructure. The available potential to achieve the strategic development goals – which mostapparently had been wrongly formulated – is underutilized: statistically people are worse off and thisis accompanied by social unrests. Development prospects for the coming years are weak, and Polandwill be heading for a disaster if a sudden breakthrough is not seen.

Deductive reasoning was undertaken under the research conducted consisting in seeking thecombinations of micro- and mezofactors that would contribute, with specific probability, to theoccurrence of each of the three possible macroscenarios in the future. Using contextual matrices,strategic positions of specific technologies and groups of critical technologies were presented,corresponding to the microlevel, together with their predicted development – presented as statisticsand/or technology strategic development tracks prepared based on the results of the expert studies.A methodology of IT studies based on artificial neural networks and original software SCENNET21and SCENNET48 with artificial neural networks implemented as functions designed using com-mercial software Statistica 4.0F was applied for analyzing mutual interactions between events ata macro- and microscale. The results of the expert studies in the form of probability values ofoccurrence of the relevant analyzed phenomena, acquired in the electronic survey of experts with thee-Delphix method, were used as input variables divided into the following subsets: a training,validation, and test subset that were used for training neural networks. Output variables, on the otherhand, are generated as different diagrams presenting relationships between the probability values ofdifferent macroscenarios subject to relevant trends of other factors of the analysis. This concept isillustrated with a diagram in Fig. 10.

Macroscenarios and Development of Thematic Areas

The simulation experiments performed with the SCENNET21 program, with artificial neuralnetworks implemented as functions, were to identify how the development of 14 individual thematic

Fig. 10 Implementation phases of neural networks in e-foresight research


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areas forming part of the research field M reflecting the manufacturer’s point of view and of the fieldP corresponding to the approach of a consumer expecting a product with the required functionalproperties influences the occurrence – with specific probability – of each of the three alternativescenarios.

By applying artificial intelligence tools to solve a research issue proposed in such a way, a solutioncan be searched immediately in a group containing thousands of solutions, similar to an optimumsolution satisfying the user. A neural network trained using the implemented reference data acquiredthrough expert surveys generates the multivariant forecasts of future events.

There are 3 relevant development trends of the thematic areas analyzed, i.e., a growth trend,a trend stabilized at the current level, and a falling trend, taken into consideration. It is possible toidentify the occurrence probability of the relevant development trends of the thematic areas analyzedwith the one defined at the beginning by each user probability value wherein each of the threealternative macroscenarios of future events occurs. The user, while performing a computer simula-tion, may set a particular numerical value of a chosen macroscenario’s probability and also searcha solution for its extreme values, i.e., a maximum or minimum value.

The results are shown in Fig. 11, of examples of three simulation experiments carried out withreference to the research field M as charts generated with the SCENNET21 program, concerninga pessimistic scenario with the probability value set, respectively, as 10 % (Fig. 11a), 20 %(Fig. 11b), and 30 % (Fig. 11c). Percentages of probability that a growth trend, a trend stabilizedat the current level, and a falling trend occurs are provided on the axis of abscissa.

The relevant, analyzed thematic areas are provided on the axis of coordinates, i.e., laser technol-ogies in surface engineering (M1), PVD technologies (M2), CVD technologies (M3), thermochem-ical technologies (M4), technologies of polymeric surface layers (M5), technologies ofnanostructural surface layers (M6), and other surface engineering technologies (M7), respectively.

The results of computer simulations, performed using neural networks, indicate a predictedleading role of the development of the nanostructural surface layer technologies (M6) and lasertechnologies (M1) against the entire research field M. For the areas of M6 andM1, the probability ofa growth trend in all the analyzed cases maintains on the highest level of the analyzed cases and isslightly decreasing as the probability of a pessimistic variant of future events grows. Note also thata probability of a falling trend for such thematic areas is zero, meaning that such areas cannot bedegraded. In accordance with the results of the simulations, the degradation is not possible, in eitherof the PVD technology (M2) or of polymer technologies of surface layers (M5) for which theprobability value of a growth trend in all the three analyzed cases is similar and is maximum approx.70–73% for both thematic areas each time. A relationship between the probability value of a growthtrend for other surface engineering technologies (M7) and the probability value of a pessimisticscenario at a macroscale is directly proportional, meaning that the worse is the general situation, thefaster is the progress of this technology group against the research field, i.e., it is recommended thatinstead of it, more promising technologies develop more intensively, i.e., M6, M1, M2, andM5. Theprobability value of a growth trend for the CVD technology (M3) maintains at the maximum levelof, respectively, 64 %, 60 %, and 57 % for a pessimistic macroscenario occurring with, respectively,10 %, 20 %, and 30 % probability. This inversely proportional dependency coupled with the valuesof a stabilized and falling trend indicates that the existing dynamics of slight growth is maintained inthe area’s importance. The development of classical thermochemical treatment technologies is mostpredictable. As the probability of a pessimistic scenario rises (from 52 % to 69 %), the probability ofthe M4 trend stabilized at the existing level is growing substantially. Both these values, probabilityvalues of a rising and falling trend of such technologies, reflect the actual situation and futurestrategic position of these technologies with respect to the research field M. Thermochemical


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treatment, although not an avant-garde or extremely developmental treatment nor an extremelydevelopmental technology, considering the economic calculus and widespread applications, has animportant role in the current economy, and forecasts show this status quo will maintain for the next20 years.

Fig. 11 The results of simulations presenting probability values of individual trends of thematic areas of the researchfield M if a pessimistic scenario occurs with the probability of (a) 10 %, (b) 20 %, and (c) 30 %


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As regards the research field P, chosen for presentation have been the examples of results ofsimulation experiments concerning a dependency between development trends of the relevantthematic areas and an optimistic macroscenario of future events having the occurrence probabilityof 10 % (Fig. 12a), 20 % (Fig. 12b), and 30 % (Fig. 12c). The occurrence probability values of therelevant development trends (a growth trend, a stabilized trend, and a falling trend) of the individual

Fig. 12 The results of simulations presenting the probability values of individual trends of thematic areas of the researchfield P if an optimistic scenario occurs with the probability of (a) 10 %, (b) 20 %, and (c) 30 %


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thematic areas were applied in per cents on the axis of abscissa, similar as for the research fieldM. The following thematic areas subjected to simulation investigations are provided on the axis ofcoordinates, respectively: biomaterials surface engineering (P1); metallic structural materials sur-face engineering (P2); nonmetallic structural materials surface engineering (P3); tool materialssurface engineering (P4); steel surface engineering for the automotive industry (P5); surfaceengineering of glass, micro-, and optoelectronic elements and photovoltaic elements (P6); andpolymer materials surface engineering (P7).

The results of the simulation experiments performed reveal that certain and rapid development ofbiomaterials surface engineering (P1), functional materials (P6), and tool materials (P4) as signifiedtakes place with 30 % probability. The probability of a falling trend of the areas P1, P6, and P4 wasdetermined as zero, similar as for nonmetallic structural materials surface engineering (P3) andpolymeric materials (P7). As regards nonmetallic structural materials surface engineering (P3), aninversely proportional dependency is observed between the probability value of a growth trend ofsuch technologies and a probability value of an optimistic macroscenario. This means that in mostoptimistic variant of events, the development of the most promising areas, i.e., P1, P6, and P4, ismore important than the development of the area P3. As it is not possible that the importance of thethematic area P7 will decrease and as there is no clear regularity in changes of the growth andstabilized trend, depending on the probability value of an optimistic macroscenario, this signifiesthat the predicted dynamics of changes in such area is stabilized at the existing, good level.A directly proportional dependency between the probability value of a growth trend and theprobability value of an optimistic macroscenario of future events can be observed also with referenceto steel surface engineering for the automotive industry (P5). This shows that this area will developin the future in connection with predictable further development of the car industry. Despite the factthat traditional steel is more and more often replaced by other materials, e.g., light metal alloys (Mg,Al) or polymeric materials, the position of steel in the automotive industry is basically unthreatenedin particular owing to the rapid development of new grades of steel. High-manganese austeniticsteels of the TRIP type (transformation-induced plasticity) should be mentioned when discussingsuch steels, characterized by a unique combination of strength and plastic properties wherea martensite TWIP (twinning-induced plasticity) transformation is induced in a cold plastic defor-mation, characterized by intensive mechanical twinning during plastic deformation, and of theTRIPLEX type characterized by a three-phase structure: an austenitic and ferrous structure withdispersive carbides. There is no clear regularity observed of changes in the growth and stabilizedtrend with regard to metallic structural materials surface engineering (P2) and approximate proba-bility values of a falling trend for individual probability values of an optimistic macroscenario. Thissignifies the predicted, stabilized dynamics of changes in the area at the existing level. Themanufacturing technologies of metallic structural materials (P2), which are not avant-garde orextremely developmental, have their certain place ensured among the important materials surfaceengineering technologies as they are so widespread in industry and as they often cannot be replacedby other solutions at economically reasonable costs.

The selected results presented concerning a pessimistic scenario for the research field M anda pessimistic scenario for the research field P, being only an example of much broader simulationinvestigations, allow to answer the question of how growth, stabilization, or decline in the impor-tance of the analyzed thematic areas influences the occurrence, with particular probability, of each ofthe alternative scenarios in the nearest 20 years, i.e., an optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic scenario.It should, therefore, be underlined that adequately trained neural networks are a useful tool allowingto generate quickly the alternative forecasts variants of future events.


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Macroscenarios and the Importance of Mezofactors

In order to identify the impact of the key mezofactors selected earlier in the work conditioning thedevelopment of materials surface engineering on the probability value of the occurrence of alterna-tive macroscenarios of future events, the original SCENNET48 software was used with an artificialneural network attached as a function (trained earlier using reference data implemented being anoutcome of expert studies). A full list of 16 mezofactors analyzed marked with the alphanumericsymbols of C1–C16 is shown in Fig. 6.

Three groups of experiments were made during simulation investigations, and their selectedresults were chosen for presentation in this paper by using the following assumptions:

• The classifier calculates for each output vector a probability value of the occurrence of anoptimistic, neutral, or pessimistic scenario.

• Each independent variable may assume one the of three values from the set {1, 0, �1} with thevalue 1 corresponding to a growth trend, 0 to a trend stabilized at the existing level (neutral level),and �1 to a falling trend of a given mezofactor.

• During each of the experiments, the individual independent variables may assume only twochosen values from the defined set of permitted values {1, 0, �1}; therefore, the number ofpossible cases is limited from 316, i.e., 43,046,721, which corresponds to the number of allcombinations of 16mezofactors considered at the same time that can assume each of the 3 possibletrends, to 216, i.e., 65,536, which takes place when only 2 trends are taken into account.

The aim of the first group of experiments was to select the mezofactors influencing the change ofa macroscenario from an optimistic one to a neutral one together with determining a probabilityvalue of such an event. Independent variables may assume a value from the set {1, �1}, whichcorresponds to a change in the trend of the examined mezofactors from the growing to the fallingtrend. Cases were searched, in line with the assumption used, where the number of mezofactorsexhibiting a change in the trend from the growth trend to the falling trend is as small as possible.Fifteen different combinations were found as a result of the experiments conducted where2 mezofactors changed their value at the same time from 1 to �1 and 194 such combinations with3 mezofactors. According to the results of the experiments carried out, three 2-element combinationsin the change of trends from growing to falling trends will contribute to, with a hundred percentprobability, the change of a macroscenario from an optimistic one to a neutral one. Such an effect iscaused by simultaneous changes into worse of the factor C9 – striving for constant improvement byensuring the higher quality of technology and multiple implementations, especially in small- andmedium-sized enterprises in combination with the following mezofactors: C1, the effectiveness ofthe state’s actions aimed at broad access to information concerning the key technologies and resultsof technology foresights; C2, transparency and friendliness of legal regulations, or C3, strategicpriorities of the united Europe identified with the community’s level of cooperation and the amountof funds granted.

The aim of the second group of experiments was to identify the mezofactors influencing thechange of a macroscenario from a neutral one to an optimistic one together with determininga probability value of such an event. Independent variables may assume a value from the set {0,1}, which corresponds to a change in the trend of the examined mezofactors from a neutral toa growth trend. An assumption was taken again that a minimum number of the changing trends issought for the relevant mezofactors. Sixteen different combinations were found as a result of theexperiments conducted where 4 mezofactors changed their value at the same time from 0 to 1 and


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152 such combinations with 5 mezofactors. An analysis of the results of the simulation experimentsshows the highest probability (94.9 %) that a macroscenario changes from a neutral to an optimisticone in the case where a change in trends occurs at the same time from a neutral to a growth trend forthe following mezofactors: C2, transparency and friendliness of legal regulations; C3, strategicpriorities of the united Europe identified with the community’s level of cooperation and the amountof funds granted; C9, striving for constant improvement by ensuring the higher quality of technologyand multiple implementations, especially in small- and medium-sized enterprises; and C11, theimportance of environment-friendly technologies for improving functionality, extending life andrecyclability.

The purpose of the last group of experiments was to identify the mezofactors influencing thechange of a macroscenario from a neutral one to a pessimistic one together with determininga probability value of the occurrence of such an event. Independent variables for such experimentsmay assume a value from the set {0, �1}, which corresponds to a change in the trend of theexamined mezofactors from a neutral to a falling trend. An assumption was taken again as for otherexperiments that a minimum number of changing trends is sought for the relevant mezofactors. Fivedifferent combinations were determined as a result of the experiments conducted where2 mezofactors changed their value at the same time from 0 to�1 (Table 2) and 63 such combinationswith 3 mezofactors. According to the results of the simulation experiments, it is most probable(94.1 %) that a macroscenario changes from a neutral to a pessimistic one while trends change at thesame time from a neutral to a pessimistic one for the following mezofactors: C11, the importance ofenvironment-friendly technologies for improving functionality, extending life and recyclability, and

Table 2 Minimum combination of mezofactors with the strongest impact on changing amacroscenario from a neutral toa pessimistic one


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Table 3 Groups of critical materials surface engineering technologies subjected to heuristic studies in line with a newlydeveloped methodology of the computer-integrated prediction of development

Research area manufacturing (M) Research area product (P)

M1 P1

AM1 Laser heat treatment AP1 Immobilization

BM1 Laser remelting BP1 Self-organization monolayers deposition

CM1 Laser alloying/cladding CP1 Patterning

DM1 Laser cladding DP1 The sol–gel method

EM1 Laser additive manufacturing EP1 Infiltration

FM1 Laser chemical vapor deposition (LCVD) FP1 Electrophoretic and sediment deposition

GM1 Laser-assisted physical vapor deposition (LAPVD) GP1 Consolidation

HM1 Laser treatment of functional materials HP1 Physical vapor deposition/chemical vapordeposition (PVD/CVD)

IM1 Pulsed laser deposition (PLD) IP1 Pulsed laser deposition (PLD)

JM1 Laser treatment of biomaterials JP1 Deposition of diamond layers and diamond-likecoatings (DLC)

M2 P2

AM2 Cathodic arc deposition (CAD) AP2 Painting

BM2 Reactive magnetron sputtering (RMS) BP2 Galvanic technologies

CM2 Pulse plasma method (PPM) CP2 Heat and thermochemical technologies

DM2 Ion beam-assisted deposition (IBAD) DP2 Thermal spraying

EM2 Hot hollow cathode deposition (HHCD) EP2 Detonation spraying by laser/electron beam/explosion

FM2 Electron beam physical vapor deposition (EB-PVD) FP2 Laser melting/alloying

GM2 Bias-activated reactive evaporation (BARE) GP2 Electron beam melting/alloying

HM2 Ionized cluster beam (ICB) HP2 Ion implantation

IM2 Thermionic arc evaporation (TAE) IP2 Ceramics/cermetals deposition

JM2 Pulsed laser deposition (PLD) JP2 Physical vapor deposition/chemical vapordeposition (PVD/CVD)

M3 P3

AM3 Hot filament chemical vapor deposition (HFCVD) AP3 Physical vapor deposition (PVD)

BM3 Atmospheric pressure chemical vapor deposition(APCVD)

BP3 Chemical vapor deposition (CVD)

CM3 Low-pressure chemical vapor deposition (LPCVD) CP3 Galvanic technologies

DM3 Plasma-assisted chemical vapor deposition/plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PACVD/PECVD)

DP3 Vacuum metallization

EM3 Laser chemical vapor deposition (LCVD) EP3 Ion implantation

FM3 Photochemical vapor deposition (photo CVD) FP3 The sol–gel method

GM3 Metal organic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) GP3 Thermal spraying

HM3 Fluidized-bed chemical vapor deposition (fluidized-bedCVD)

HP3 Painting

IM3 Chemical vapor infiltration (CVI) IP3 Electrophoretic deposition (EPD)

JM3 Atomic layer deposition (ALD) JP3 Pulse laser deposition (PLD) or deposition usinglaser plasma extreme ultraviolet (EUV)

M4 P4

AM4 Plasma nitriding AP4 Physical vapor deposition (PVD)

BM4 Low-pressure nitriding BP4 Chemical vapor deposition (CVD)(continued)


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Table 3 (continued)


CM4 Gas nitriding CP4 Spraying

DM4 Complex treatment with nitriding DP4 Powder metallurgy (chemical and/or phasecomposition changes in surface layers)

EM4 Gas carburizing and high-temperature carbonitriding EP4 Nitriding and complex treatment with nitriding

FM4 Plasma and low-pressure carburizing FP4 Laser alloying/cladding

GM4 Aluminizing GP4 Cladding

HM4 Boriding HP4 Graded coating deposition

IM4 Passivation IP4 Hybrid technologies

JM4 Hybrid technologies JP4 Pulsed laser deposition (PLD)

M5 P5

AM5 Traditional painting techniques and immersion deposition AP5 Hot dip zincing (in pure Zn and in Zn–Al alloys)

BM5 Hydrodynamic spray BP5 Hot dip zincing and annealing (Zn–Fe coating)

CM5 Powder painting CP5 Hot dip alumination (in pure Al and in Al–Sialloys)

DM5 Electrophoretic deposition (EPD) DP5 Galvanic technologies

EM5 Electrostatic fluidized-bed deposition EP5 Spray metallization

FM5 Graded coating deposition FP5 Thermal spraying

GM5 Deposition of coatings with nanofillers GP5 Ground polymer coating deposition

HM5 Shape-memory coating deposition HP5 Painting and lacquering using liquid polymermaterials

IM5 Deposition of coating self-stratifying on polymer surfacelayers

IP5 Powder polymer coating deposition

JM5 Biocompatible coating deposition JP5 Deposition of coatings from polymer foils

M6 P6

AM6 Reactive ion etching (RIE) AP6 Chemical vapor deposition (CVD)

BM6 Electron beam lithography (EBL) BP6 Physical vapor deposition (PVD)

CM6 Chemical vapor deposition (CVD) of nanometric surfacelayers

CP6 Pyrolysis and its variants

DM6 Ion beam-assisted deposition (IBAD) DP6 The sol–gel method

EM6 Electron beam physical vapor deposition (EB-PVD) ofnanometric surface layers

EP6 Organic–inorganic hybrid coatings obtaining

FM6 Atomic layer deposition (ALD) FP6 Evaporation

GM6 Electrodeposition of nanometric surface layers GP6 Chemical methods/alkalis leaching from surfacelayers and remaining SiO2 concentration

HM6 The sol–gel method of nanometric surface layersobtaining

HP6 Reactive ion etching (RIE)

IM6 Deposition of coatings with nanomaterials on surfacelayers

IP6 Mechanical texturization using diamond edge

JM6 Surface treatment of nanomaterials JP6 Laser texturization

M7 P7

AM7 Galvanic coating deposition AP7 Metallization

BM7 Thermal sprayed coating deposition BP7 Corona treatment

CM7 Deposition of coatings formed in low pressure frompowders and sintering

CP7 Plasma treatment of polymer surface layers

DM7 Immersion metallized coating deposition DP7 Laser treatment of polymer surface layers

EM7 Ceramics/cermetals deposition EP7

(continued)


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C13, the importance of technologies enhancing the mechanical, tribological, and anticorrosiveproperties of surface layers.

The presented results of the simulation experiments providing the representative examples ofmuch broader research reveal that it is reasonable to employ neural networks for analyzinginteractions between events when creating multivariant probabilistic scenarios of future events.By using this artificial intelligence tool, a dependency can be determined between the occurrence,with a specific probability, of each of the considered alternative macroscenarios and the variants ofchanging the individual thematic areas or mezofactors while taking into account that, within thedefined time horizon, their importance may increase, remain stable, or decrease. All the difficultiesencountered by the pioneers stemmed from the experimental and innovative idea of implementingneural networks for creating future event scenarios. The chief challenge was the specificity of inputdata in form of expert opinions expressed quantitatively (in percents). The phenomena were assesseddifferently as such an assessment tends to be subjective, which is typical for expert investigations. Inparticular, the experts, most likely unintentionally, on one hand were making an attempt to representthe interests of their own circles and on the other hand were frequently viewing those phenomenahaving a high level of generality (macro- and mezoscale) through the prospective of their own, muchnarrower, specialization.

Strategic Position of the Critical Materials Surface EngineeringTechnologies

The determination of the strategic position of critical materials surface engineering technologies waspreceded by the elaboration of a custom computer-integrated methodology for converting the hiddenimplicit knowledge, which by the nature of things is difficult to measure, into explicit knowledgeavailable to the public (Fig. 13), expressed quantitatively using engineering analytical tools. Theinput date was acquired, in consistency with e-foresight, by the electronic survey of experts with thee-Delphix method using IT technologies.

Contextual MatricesThe positions of relevant technologies vis-à-vis other technologies were presented graphically usingcontextual matrices. A dendrological matrix of technology value was applied in order to determinethe objectivized values of the individual, separate technologies, or their groups, and ameteorological

Table 3 (continued)


Ultraviolet (UV) radiation treatment of polymersurface layers

FM7 Casting and infiltration surface layers manufacturing FP7 Gamma radiation treatment of polymer surfacelayers

GM7 Coating cladding GP7 Electron beam treatment of polymer surfacelayers

HM7 Burnishing, ball burnishing HP7 Obtaining of graded coatings on polymer surfacelayers

IM7 Plating IP7 Obtaining of self-organized coatings on polymersurface layers

JM7 Detonation spraying JP7 In situ polymerization


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matrix of environment influence was used to determine the intensity of positive and negativeinfluence of the micro- and macroenvironment on the specific technologies. A methodologicalstructure of both matrices refers to portfolio methods commonly known in management sciences(Thompson and Strickland 1987; Little 1981; Hofer 1977; Glueck 1980) serving to characterize theportfolio of products offered to a client by an enterprise, allowing for a graphical presentation ofresults of a comparative analysis according to two criteria/factors placed, respectively, on thehorizontal and vertical axis of the matrix. The most renowned of such matrix, Boston ConsultingGroup (BCG) (Henderson 1970), enjoys its unique popularity due to references to simple associa-tions and intuitive reasoning, which became an inspiration when elaborating methodologicalassumptions for the dendrological and meteorological matrix. To evaluate individual technologiesfor their value and environment influence intensity, a single-pole positive scale without zero wasused, called a universal scale of relative states, where 1 is a minimum rate and 10 is an extraordi-narily high rate, while lifecycle phases were determined in line with a compatible 10-pointevaluation scale of technology lifecycle phase.

A four-field dendrological matrix of technology value (Fig. 14) contains expert assessments forthe relevant technologies according to the potential being the realistic objective value of the specifictechnology group and according to attractiveness reflecting the subjective perception of the relevanttechnology group by its potential users. Depending on the potential value and attractiveness leveldetermined in an expert assessment, each of the analyzed technologies is placed into one of thematrix quarters. The wide-stretching oak is the most promising quarter guaranteeing the futuresuccess, and the technologies placed in this quarter are characterized by a high potential and highattractiveness. The soaring cypress characterizes new, very attractive technologies with a limitedpotential, and the rooted dwarf mountain pine symbolizes stable, proven technologies with a highpotential and limited attractiveness likely to ensure a strong position for a technology if an adequatestrategy is employed. The least promising technologies are placed in a quarter called quaking aspenwith their future success having small probability or being impossible.

A four-field matrix of environment influence (Fig. 15) presents, in a graphical manner, the resultsof how the external positive (opportunities) and negative (difficulties) factors impact the technolo-gies analyzed. Each of the technologies evaluated by the experts is placed into one of the matrixquarters. Sunny spring illustrates the most favorable external situation ensuring the future success.

Fig. 13 Knowledge availability matrix


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Fig. 14 Dendrological matrix of technology value, presentation of approach (Dobrzańska-Danikiewicz 2010b, 2012b)

Fig. 15 Meteorological matrix of technology value, presentation of approach (Dobrzańska-Danikiewicz 2010b, 2012b)


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Rainy autumn, providing a chance for steady progress, corresponds to a neutral environment and hotsummer to a stormy environment where the success of a technology is risky but feasible. Frostywinter communicates that technology development is difficult or unachievable.

The results of the expert studies presented graphically with the dendrological matrix of technol-ogies value and the meteorological matrix of environment influence were entered into the matrix ofstrategies for technologies (Dobrzańska-Danikiewicz 2010b). The matrix consists of 16 fieldscorresponding to relevant variants, resulting from the set of combinations of the four types oftechnologies with four types of surrounding. The matrix of strategies for technologies (Fig. 16)presents graphically the position of a technology according to its value and to intensity of environ-ment influence expressed with a universal scale of relative states consisting of ten degrees andindicates an action strategy that should be adopted for a given technology. To be able to transferrelevant numerical values from the 4-field dendrological and meteorological matrices to the 16-fieldmatrix of strategies for technologies, mathematical dependencies were formulated, allowing torescale and objectivize the research results, and a computer program was developed on their basisto enable the fast calculation of the values sought and to generate graphically the matrix of strategiesfor technologies.

Fig. 16 General form of the matrix of strategies for technologies (Dobrzańska-Danikiewicz et al. 2011e)


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The Aggregate Matrix of Strategies for Critical Technologies of MaterialsSurface Engineering and Interpretation of Research Results

The critical technologies of materials surface engineering are the priority technologies with the bestdevelopment outlooks and/or of key significance for industry within the analyzed time horizon of20 years. All the critical technologies were classified according to two research fields: M -(Manufacturing) and P (Product). Seven thematic fields were distinguished between each of theresearch fields, M1–M7 and P1–P7, respectively, each containing 10 groups of technologies, givingthe pool of 140 groups of critical materials surface engineering technologies (Table 3). The pool wasgenerated based on the results of a state-of-the-art analysis including its assessment according to thereview of references, technological review, and a strategic analysis with integrated methods (STEEP,SWOT). It needs to be explained that there are cases where a given group of technologies occursmore than once in the pool of critical technologies, which is not an omission or an error buta deliberate action. It is possible that a given group of technologies is significant for several thematicareas at the same time, while this significance against other technologies of different areas may beeither similar, the same, or quite different.

In order to determine the strategic position of the relevant groups of critical technologies and toformulate action strategies recommended for use for such technologies, a newly developed meth-odology of the computer-integrated prediction of materials surface engineering development wasemployed with its correctness verified positively earlier by using the results of classical materialscience research as a reference point (Dobrzańska-Danikiewicz et al. 2010b; Hasan and Harris2009).

The results of the electronic survey of experts, the specialists representing particular thematicfields, are carried out according to the idea of technology e-foresight using the e-Delphix method andthe accompanying information technology, enabling to conduct research in virtual reality,represented the original reference data, expressed quantitatively using the universal scale of relativestates consisting of ten degrees (1, minimum; 10, maximum) used for preparing aggregate contex-tual matrices concerning all the analyzed groups of critical materials surface engineering technol-ogies. The values of individual technologies were evaluated in particular according to their potentialand attractiveness, and the results of such evaluations were entered into the summary dendrologicalmatrix of technology value (Hasan and Harris 2009). The results of the positive and negativeevaluation of the influence of external factors were entered into the summary metrological matrixof environment influence by Hasan and Harris (2009). A summary matrix of strategies for technol-ogies was next generated using a dedicated computer program. As it is necessary to ensure thata figure of the matrix of strategies for technologies is adequately clear, for the purpose of matrixpresentation it was divided into quarters with their layout and numbering shown in Fig. 17. Theindividual quarters of the matrix together with the provided strategic position of individual criticaltechnologies of materials surface engineering are illustrated in Figs. 18, 19, 20, and 21. The strategicdevelopment prospects of relevant technologies expressed quantitatively with the universal scale ofrelative states were marked with circles entered into the relevant quarters of the matrix, and thisallows to make a quantitative comparative analysis of the individual groups of critical technologiessubjected to heuristic studies.

Considering a limited size of this publication, the data provided in the matrix of strategies forcritical technologies of materials surface engineering divided into quarters (Figs. 18, 19, 20, and 21)is interpreted with an abbreviated description pertaining to the most promising of the analyzedcritical technologies.


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Laser alloying/cladding CM1S (7.0, 8.4) and pulsed laser deposition IM1

S (4.6, 8.4) have the bestdevelopment prospects from among the critical technologies belonging to the area of the thematicfield M1: Laser technologies in surface engineering, and they were evaluated highly (8 points). Thetechnology group CM1 was placed in the dwarf mountain pine in spring field signifying its highpotential and limited attractiveness; hence, the actions recommended for the group include thefollowing: to render the technology more attractive and more modern, to automate it, to computerizeit, and to promote it using strong market conditions. Pulsed laser deposition IM1 was placed in thecypress in spring field, meaning it is highly attractive with a limited potential that needs to be

Fig. 17 Layout and numbering of quarters of strategies for technologies prepared for critical technologies of materialssurface engineering

Fig. 18 The first quarter of the matrix of strategies for technologies concerning the thematic areas ofM1–M7 and P1–P7(Dobrzańska-Danikiewicz 2012b)


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strengthened through further research efforts, improvement, and additional investments in strongmarket conditions.

The results of heuristic studies point out that reactive magnetron sputtering (RMS) BM2S (8.6, 9.0)

and cathodic arc deposition (CAD) AM2S (8.5, 8.7) have the best prospects of strategic development

for physical vapor deposition (PVD) technologies, referred to as very high (9 points), and theseshould be developed, enhanced, and implemented in industrial practice for achieving a spectacularsuccess. An attractive group of technologies with limited potential JM2

S (4.6, 8.4), i.e., pulsed laserdeposition (PLD), should be investigated, improved, and invested more using the robust economicmarket circumstances. In relation to an attractive, stable technology set in a foreseeable environ-ment, consisting of electron beam physical vapor deposition (EB-PVD) FM2

S (8.2, 4.1), a futuresuccess is foreseen while recommending at the same time that new

In the group of technologies consisting of chemical vapor deposition (CVD), the best strategicpositions, evaluated each time to have 9 points in the scale of 10 points, have the following methods:metal organic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) GM3

S (8.6, 8.5), laser chemical vapor deposition(LCVD) EM3

S (8.7, 8.3), and plasma-assisted chemical vapor deposition/plasma-enhanced chemicalvapor deposition (PACVD/PECVD) DM3

S (8.5, 8.2) found in the best 16 matrices of strategies fortechnologies for which the oak in spring strategy is recommended; thus, their future success iscertain. A prototype technology of atomic layer deposition (ALD) JM3

S (4.4, 8.8) is also verypromising (8 points), in relation to which it is recommended to use the cypress in spring strategyconsisting of further scientific and research works aimed at its improvement and enhancement. It isalso recommended to make additional investment in this attractive technology connected with

Fig. 19 The second quarter of the matrix of strategies for technologies concerning the thematic areas of M1–M7 andP1–P7 (Dobrzańska-Danikiewicz 2012b)


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exploiting numerous opportunities arising from the micro- and macroenvironment. An analysis ofthe results of heuristic studies visualized using contextual matrices indicates that among thermo-chemical technologies, the best strategic position has hybrid technologies JM4

S (9.0, 9.1) combiningat least two surface treatment methods, i.e., nitriding and physical vapor deposition (PVD) orcarburizing with chemical vapor deposition (CVD). The technologies currently experiencinga growing phase were also evaluated very high (9 points): plasma and low-pressure carburizingFM4S (8.7, 8.9) and low-pressure nitriding BM4

S (8.3, 8.6). The experts also evaluated plasma nitridingAS

M4 (8.6, 8.6) being in its early–mature phase, with 9 points. All the technologies JM4, BM4, FM4,and AM4 were found in the most advantageous group of 16 matrices, and the oak in spring strategy isrecommended for them consisting in developing, strengthening, and implementing an attractivetechnology with a large potential in the industrial practice, and their future success is guaranteed.

It was pointed out by analyzing the results of heuristic studies conducted through an electronicsurvey of experts that the following polymer technologies of surface layers have the best strategicposition evaluated with 9 points in the ten-degree scale of universal states: deposition of coatingswith nanofillers GS

M5 (8.3, 8.6) and graded coatings FSM5 (8.6, 8.1) with respect to which it isrecommended to apply the oak in spring strategy where efforts are made to achieve a success bydeveloping and strengthening the technologies that are boding very well set in a friendly environ-ment bringing numerous opportunities. Electrophoretic deposition DS

M5 (6.6, 8.7) and electrostaticfluidized-bed deposition ES

M5 (6.6, 8.3) also rank high in the ranking (8 points), and they are placedin the field of dwarf mountain pine in spring, and a strategy recommended for them assumes thatsuch mature technologies must be rendered more attractive, more modern, computerized andautomated, and also intensively promoted in a supportive environment.

Fig. 20 The third quarter of the matrix of strategies for technologies concerning the thematic areas of M1–M7 andP1–P7 (Dobrzańska-Danikiewicz 2012b)


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A heuristic analysis using reference data acquired via electronic surveys of experts with thee-Delphix method was carried out also with reference to the critical technologies of materials surfaceengineering classified as technologies of nanostructural surface layers among which a strategicposition of physical vapor deposition of nanometric surface layers using ion beam-assisted deposi-tion (IBAD) ES

M6 (9.4, 9.1) and with electron beam physical vapor deposition (EB-PVD) DSM6 (9.2,

8.6) was evaluated extraordinarily high (10 points). The oak in spring strategy should be employedwith regard to those exceptionally promising technologies that were granted the maximum possiblerate as it encourages their development, strengthening, and implementation on a wide industrialscale, and their future success is certain. The surface treatment of nanomaterials JSM6 (4.4, 9.0)(Dobrzańska-Danikiewicz and Lukowiec 2013) and also atomic layer deposition (ALD) FSM6 (4.9,8.8) were evaluated very high (9 points). A strategic position of the deposition of coatings withnanomaterials on surface layers ISM6 (4.7, 8.4) and of electron beam lithography (EBL) BS

M6 (4.3,8.0) was evaluated very high (8 points). The groups of technologies JM6, FM6, and IM6 being in theirprototype phase of development as well as the early–mature group BM6 require that the cypress inspring strategy is applied, showing that further scientific and research efforts need to be pursued toimprove and strengthen the potential of such promising young technologies; numerous opportuni-ties should also be exploited emerging in the closer and farther environment.

The results of heuristic studies indicate that thermal sprayed coating deposition BSM7 (9.1, 8.7)

have the best prospects of strategic development for the technologies classified as other surfaceengineering technologies determined as extraordinarily high (10 points). The technologies wereplaced in the best 16 matrices of strategies for technologies, their further development and numerousapplications in industrial practice should therefore be expected, and such development should beaided with development and strengthening of such proven solutions in supportive environmental

Fig. 21 The fourth quarter of the matrix of strategies for technologies concerning the thematic areas of M1–M7 andP1–P7 (Dobrzańska-Danikiewicz 2012b)


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conditions. The cypress in spring strategy, whereby the potential of an attractive technology isenhanced through further scientific and research works aimed at technology improvement, whileusing the opportunities from the environment, should be applied for the methods of ceramics/cermetals deposition ES

M7 (5.0, 8.9), whose strategic position was rated very high (9 points), andcasting and infiltration surface layers manufacturing methods FSM7 (4.4, 8.5) rated very high(8 points). A good strategic position (8 points) was observed for galvanic coating depositionAS

M7 (7.0, 8.3) found in the field of dwarf mountain pine in spring, meaning that measures needto be undertaken to make this mature technology attractive, modern, automated, and computerized,with such processes being supported by a friendly environment, as well as for the deposition ofcoatings formed in low pressure from powders and sintering CS

M7 (8.9, 5.0) for which the oak inautumn strategy is recommended. This strategy, appropriate for attractive technologies with a highpotential being in a neutral environment, belongs to those with strong prospects and measures needto be taken to broaden the markets, customer groups, and areas of applications.

It was revealed in an analysis of strategic prospects of biomaterials surface engineering carried outusing a newly established methodology of computer-integrated prediction of development that inthis thematic area, regarded by experts as one of the most promising for those under examination,there are as many as six groups of technologies, HP1, DP1, AP1, JP1, BP1, and CP1, characterized bya very high strategic position (9 points). The strategies recommended for them are, however,diversified. As regards the physical and chemical vapor deposition methods (PVD/CVD) HS

P1

(9.2, 8.4) and the sol–gel method DSP1 (8.9, 8.2), it is reasonable to apply the oak in spring strategy

consisting of developing, strengthening, and wide application in industrial conditions of suchearly–mature technologies set in a friendly environment, which ensures their commercial success.The dwarf mountain pine in spring strategy is recommended for immobilization methods (6.8, 9.1)and for deposition of diamond layers and diamond-like coatings (DLC) JSP1 (7.2, 8.7), and theplanned strategic measures should be aimed at making the technological solutions more attractiveand modern, at automation and computerization of a machine park and at promotion, which shouldstrengthen such mature technologies in a supportive environment. As regards the growing technol-ogy of self-organization monolayers, depositionP1 (4.5, 9.4) and pattering CP1 (5.0, 8.7) being in itsearly–mature phase of lifecycle – with such pattering potentially occurring in the processes of locallaser irradiation, surface injection, or bombing with an ion beam – it is rather recommended to applythe cypress in spring strategy consisting of exploiting the opportunities from the environment whilestrengthening the technology’s potential. This strategy should also be applied for highly rated(8 points) infiltration methods ES

P1 (4.2, 8.0), enabling the surface production of graded materials.It was pointed out by analyzing the results of the heuristic studies conducted through an electronic

survey of experts that the best strategic position for the critical technologies of structural metallicmaterials surface engineering, rated maximally with 10 points, has the physical and chemical vapordeposition methods (PVD/CVD) JSP2 (9.3, 9.5), with respect to which it is recommended to applythe oak in spring strategy consisting of attempts to achieve the guaranteed success by developing andstrengthening those technologies boding well in a friendly environment. Thermal and thermochem-ical technologies CS

P2 (7.3, 8.7) widely used in different versions and variants for the surfacetreatment of metal materials enjoy a very high strategic position (9 points). The group of technol-ogies CP2 requires the dwarf mountain pine in spring strategy to make late–mature technologiesmore attractive and to modernize them, to computerize them, and to automate a machine park, andalso to undertake promotional actions reinforcing their competitive market position at the market atwhich opportunities prevail. Similarly, the strategic position of the following technologies was alsoevaluated very high (9 points): ion implantation HS

P2 (4.6, 9.2) being in its prototype phase of lifeand the growing ceramics/cermetals deposition technology ISP2 (3.9, 9.2). With reference to such


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groups of technologies, as well as to a highly evaluated (8 points) early–mature technology of lasermelting/alloying FSP2 (4.7, 8.3), it is recommended to apply the cypress in spring strategy, accordingto which opportunities should be exploited coming from the environment, while making thetechnology more attractive and strengthening its potential, the purpose of which are for researchand development works.

Contextual matrices were created, as part of a heuristic analysis carried out using a newlyestablished methodology, visualizing the strategic positions of the individual groups of criticaltechnologies classified to the studies under the considered thematic area of structural nonmetallicmaterials surface engineering. The highest possible rate (10 points) was given to chemical BS

P3 (9.2,9.3) and physical AS

P3 (9.1, 9.1) vapor deposition methods with respect to which it is recommendedto apply the oak in spring strategy leading to a market success in the supportive conditions of theenvironment. A prototype group of technologies of pulse laser deposition (PLD) or deposition usinglaser plasma extreme ultraviolet EUV JSP3 (4.9, 9.1) received very high rates (9 points), and thecypress in spring strategy is recommended for it assumes that the supportive environmentalconditions are used and investigations into such technologies continued. The innovative – ona global scale – research into micro- and nanotreatment of organic polymers with EUV irradiationproduced with laser and plasma sources is especially noteworthy. The technologies with a highstrategic position (8 points) include the sol–gel method FSP3 (6.7, 8.6) and ion implantation ES

P3

(6.5, 8.0) placed in 16 matrices of strategies for technologies corresponding to the dwarf mountainpine in spring, meaning that their attractiveness should be reinforced while making use of numerousopportunities coming from the environment, as well as the production of coatings in galvanizationprocesses CS

P3 (8.6, 5.1) with reference to which the oak in autumn strategy is recommended, wherecurrent benefits are derived while seeking at the same time new applications for technologies in theneutral conditions of the environment.

An analysis carried out according to the results of heuristic studies presented graphically usingcontextual matrices allowed to determine the strategic position of critical technologies of toolmaterials surface engineering. The highest possible rate (10 points) was assigned to the physicalvapor deposition method (PVD) AS

P4 (9.5, 8.4) found in the very promising field of the matrix ofstrategies for technologies – oak in spring, just like chemical vapor deposition (CVD) BS

P4 (9.1,8.1), is assigned 9 points; therefore, wide applications in industrial practice using the opportunitiescoming from the environment are recommended for both groups of technologies. The strategicpositions of very promising prototype treatment methods, i.e., pulsed laser deposition (PLD) JSP4(4.4, 9.0), hybrid technologies ISP4 (4.8, 9.0), and graded coating deposition technology HS

P4 (4.7,8.7), were evaluated very high (9 points) with their further development requiring continued R&Dworks and the use of opportunities from the environment, i.e., the cypress in spring strategy.

An analysis of strategic positions was made, using the original reference data collected during thee-foresight research conducted, of the relevant groups of technologies classified to heuristic studiesin the thematic field of surface engineering of steels used in automotive industry. The followingtechnologies have the highest strategic position (9 points) for such technologies: hot dip zincing andannealing (Zn–Fe coating) BS

P5 (8.1, 9.1), whose future success is guaranteed as it was found in themost promising quarter of the matrix of strategies for technologies – oak in spring – as well aspowder polymer coating deposition ISP5 (4.6, 9.0) placed in the field of cypress in spring; thepotential of this early–mature technology in supportive environmental conditions needs, therefore,to be reinforced. The cypress in spring strategy is also recommended for implementation for thedeposition of coatings from polymer foils JSP5 (3.9, 8.2), being currently in the growing phase, aswell as for thermal spraying FSP5 (4.6, 7.9) that has entered its early–mature lifecycle phase. Thestrategic position of both technologies JP5 and FP5 is high (8 points), just like of painting and


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lacquering using liquid polymer materials HSP5 (6.8, 8.5), which – as a mature

technology – corresponds to dwarf mountain pine, and supportive environmental conditions makeit reasonable to apply the dwarf mountain pine in spring strategy here, in line with which it isnecessary to take actions to improve its attractiveness through modernization, automation, andpromotion.

A heuristic analysis using the custom methodology of computer-integrated prediction of devel-opment allowed to define the strategic positions of individual groups of technology which, as criticaltechnologies, were analyzed in the thematic area of surface engineering of glass, micro- andoptoelectronic elements, and photovoltaic elements. Physical vapor deposition (PVD) BS

P6 (9.5,8.9) that received the maximum note (10 points) and, therefore, was classified to the most promising16 matrices of strategies for technologies –oak in spring – has the best strategic position for thetechnologies analyzed in this area; it is therefore recommended to develop and strengthen this groupof technologies which in the future should be used more and more at a wide industrial scale,especially that the environment is very supportive. The methods of chemical vapor deposition(CVD) AS

P6 (9.1, 8.4) and sol–gel methods DSP6 (8.7, 8.6) evaluated very highly (9 points) were

also found in the oak in spring field. Incipient technologies, including laser texturization ESP6 (4.8,

9.1) and production of organic–inorganic hybrid coatings JSP6 (4.6, 9.3), influenced intensively bypositive factors coming from the environment, require a cypress in spring strategy, consisting ofstrengthening the technology potential using numerous positive external events influencing posi-tively their progress.

A heuristic analysis carried out using a newly established methodology permitted to identify thestrategic positions of the relevant groups of critical technologies of polymer materials surfaceengineering. The results of the research reveal that five groups of technologies, i.e., BP7, HP7, JP7,IP7, and DP7, were evaluated very high (9 points), signifying good prospects of the whole thematicarea. Young, promising technologies, i.e., those obtained from graded coatings on polymer surfacelayers HS

P7 (5.0, 9.5) and self-stratifying IS (4.7, 8.9), in situ polymerization JSP7 (4.6, 9.2), and laser

treatment of polymer surface layers DSP7 (4.8, 8.6), were placed in the cypress in spring field,

meaning that scientific works should be continued to develop them and numerous opportunitiescoming from the environment should be used. A relatively simple and efficient method of coronadischarges BS

P7 (7.4, 8.3) widespread in industry due to low expenses, both at the investment andoperation stage, was placed in the dwarf mountain pine in spring field, similar to plasma treatment ofpolymer surface layers CS

P7 (7.0, 8.4) evaluated highly (8 points); it is thus recommended for thosetechnologies to exploit the opportunities arising from the environment while caring at the same timefor their improved attractiveness to maintain competitive advantage.

An analysis made with contextual matrices, i.e., a dendrological matrix of technology values,meteorological matrix of environment influence, and a matrix of strategies of technologies, being theresult of the two first matrices and statistical lists, generated on the basis of results of the e-Delphixmethod, allowed to determine the strategic positions of the individual groups of critical materialssurface engineering technologies against the examined thematic area to which they were classifiedand to define their strategic development path for the assumed time horizon of the nearest 20 years.

The Determinants of Industrial Application Conditions for MaterialsSurface Engineering Technologies

The determinants of industrial application conditions for materials surface engineering technologieswere listed using the reference data provided in the technology roadmaps and technology


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information sheets prepared for each of the 140 technologies analyzed and were presented as theselected examples only. A framework of the technology roadmap (Fig. 22) corresponds to the firstquarter of the Cartesian system of coordinates. Three time intervals for 2010–2011, 2020, and 2030,respectively, are given on the axis of abscissa, and the time horizon for the overall results of theresearch provided on the map is 20 years. Seven main layers are provided on the axis of coordinatesof the technology roadmap responding, respectively, to the following more and more detailedquestions: When? Why? What? How? Where? Who? How much? Overview of the relevant layersis presented in Table 4.

The main layers of the technology roadmap are ordered according to their hierarchy starting fromthe uppermost, most general ones, determining all social and economic premises, reasons, andcauses of the actions followed, through the middle layers characterizing a product and its

Fig. 22 Technology roadmap framework

Table 4 Overview of the main layers of technology roadmap

No. Layer Scope Question Description

1. Time layer Sequence When? Defines the set time intervals and time horizons of research conducted

2. Conceptuallayer

Relevance Why? Formulates in detail general social and economic prospects of actionsconducted and a strategy appropriate for a given technology

3. Product layer Subject What? Characterizes a product produced in a given technological processaccording to its structure and properties

4. Technologicallayer

Method How? Describes a particular technology according to the following detailedcriteria: lifecycle, type, and form of production; machine park, automation,and robotization; quality; and environment

5. Spatial layer Place Where? Determines type of organization and represented industries

6. Personnellayer

Contractor Who? Identifies personnel structure and expected personnel skills

7. Quantitativelayer

Cost Howmuch?

Provides capital requirements and estimated production volume


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manufacturing technologies, ending with the bottom layers detailing the organizational and techni-cal issues concerning the place, contractors, and costs. The middle layers of the technology roadmapare subjected to two types of influence – pull from the uppermost layers and push from the bottomlayers. The relationships between the individual layers and sub-layers of the technology roadmap arepresented with the different types of arrows representing, respectively, cause-and-effect relation-ships, capital ties, time correlations, and two-directional data and/or resources flows. The technologyroadmaps are a very convenient tool for a comparative analysis enabling to select the best technol-ogy according to the criterion chosen. Besides, their flexibility is their undisputed advantage, and, ifneeded, additional sub-layers can be added to or expanded for the maps according to the circum-stances of the industry, size of an enterprise, scale of the company’s business, or an entrepreneur’sindividual expectations. An example of a technology roadmap shown in Fig. 23 was made forreactive magnetron sputtering (RMS). Technology information sheets, containing technical infor-mation very helpful in implementing a specific technology in the industrial practice, especially inSMEs lacking the capital allowing to conduct own research, are detailing and supplementing thetechnology roadmaps and are provided as an example. A selected, representative technologyinformation sheet made for RMS is given in Fig. 24a, b.

Technology roadmaps and information sheets prepared for 140 critical technologies of materialssurface engineering make up the Book of Critical Technologies of Surface Structure and PropertiesFormation of Engineering Materials (Dobrzańska-Danikiewicz 2013). It is estimated that the Bookof Critical Technologies is to be available on theWeb as an e-book and information contained thereinwill be disseminated via the Internet without any limitations and for free, using a publicly available(open access) web platform in line with a newly established concept of e-transfer of technology(Dobrzańska-Danikiewicz and Lukaszkowicz 2010; Dobrzańska-Danikiewicz et al. 2010b, 2011f).The technology e-transfer Internet platform planned to be created is to be made up of three

Fig. 23 A demonstrating technology roadmap prepared for the reactive magnetron sputtering (RMS)


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compatible functional modules embracing e-consulting, e-training, and e-information, coupled witha technology database. In e-consulting, technology roadmaps and information sheets will beavailable being a compendium of the knowledge considered on priority innovative technologies,characterized in a uniform manner, enabling to compare them easily according to the selectedmaterials science, technological, or organization criterion. E-training allows the self-education ofbeneficiaries by access to specialist training materials and using a self-control system in form of tests

Fig. 24 An example of a technology information sheet prepared for the reactive magnetron sputtering (RMS): (a) 1stpage 1 and (b) 2nd page (Prepared together with K. Lukaszkowicz)


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that can be completed multiple times until a result satisfactory for the user is reached. Supplemen-tary, highly specialized training materials, available mainly in English, are represented by articlesand monographs collected in a publicly available database of scientific works, a so-called openrepository. Updates concerning web platform resources, conferences, workshops, and other initia-tives related to current activity will be covered by e-information.

The concept of setting up an e-technology transfer center is the continuation of the idea and theextension of the aims of e-foresight to incorporate the domain of application and implementation ofknowledge on the selected engineering materials surface properties and structure formation tech-nologies and, in general, material processes technologies and engineering materials processing,primarily in the machine and electrotechnical industry. The synergic influence of both concepts ofe-foresight and technology e-transfer creates a full and integrated system of prediction of thedevelopment of surface properties and structure formation technologies and of implementation ofthe results of such research in an extensive environment of managers and engineers employed inindustrial entities. In line with the adopted conceptual assumptions, interested individual can beprovided, anytime and without any restrictions, with all the information, while the monitoring ofcurrent issues – being merely an indirect way of interaction with enterprises – should allow to focusresearch works on satisfying the real needs of a knowledge- and innovation-based economy.

Summary

A new approach presented in this book chapter enables the neural network-aided creation ofalternative scenarios of future events, strategic placement of technologies with graphical analytical,i.e., contextual matrices and a comparative analysis of technologies using roadmaps and technologyinformation sheets. The methodological approach presented serves to lessen the risk in predictingthe prospective development directions of engineering materials surface layer properties andstructure formation technologies. The analyses carried out indicate that heuristic studies, based onexpert knowledge, allow to produce credible results of predicted technology development, withouthaving to support them each time with the results of materials science research. This was confirmedin the experimental verification process of the new approach undertaken for 36 groups of technol-ogies. The results of detailed experimental investigations into the structure and properties ofengineering materials surface layers were used as a reference point. The newly established meth-odology, describing concisely the actions and activities targeted at creating multivariant probabilis-tic scenarios of future events, at selecting and characterizing the critical technologies in a clear andharmonized manner, and at paving the strategic development directions, organizes, streamlines, andmodernizes the prediction process. The use of information technology encompassing a virtualorganization, web platform, and artificial neural networks plays an important role here. It isreasonable to use artificial neural networks to create multivariant probabilistic scenarios of futureevents because they allow to generate very quickly alternative forecasts as probability values that thealternative macroscenarios of future events occur dependent upon the emergence of the specialconditions or factors considered at a mezo-level. It was recognized that it is possible, needed, andnecessary to implement the outcomes of the research performed in the economic reality at the macro-, mezo-, and microlevel and that the new methodology, supported with extended informationtechnology, is suitable for direct applications in other areas of knowledge while maintainingeconomically reasonable costs. It is foreseen that if the effects of the e-foresight research performedare broadly disseminated via the Internet, this will represent – in line with the technology e-transferconcept – one of the crucial factors contributing to accelerated sustainable development, to


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a stronger knowledge- and innovation-based economy, and to statistical growth in the quality oftechnologies used in industry.

Comments

All the results, figures, and detailed diagrams presented in this chapter of the book have beendeveloped in the framework of an author’s multiannual foresight project entitled FORSURFfounded by EFFR and Polish Ministry of Science and Education completed in September 2012aimed at determining the future development trends of materials surface engineering and atidentifying the priority innovative technologies in this area.

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