foresight 4 food · oils & fats l 3% limit what we should be eating (harvard's healthy...
TRANSCRIPT
Food Systems
Contents
• DFID Food Systems Learning Journey
• Foresight4Food Initiative
• South Asia Food Systems / Food Energy Water Nexus
• Farmers and Food Systems – OSF
• IFSTAL
• Principles for Responsible Investment -WBG
• EU Food Systems Interest
• EAT/WEF/WBCSD Food Systems Dialogue
Food security and stability, migration,
transparency
Inclusive Growth
Infrastructure and
innovation key to ag
Large employe
r
Water use, on farm solar
Reducing water use in ag, reducing pollution
Ag is key to empowerment
Food and Nutrition security
Healthy Diet
Paying for education
Sustainably feeding cities
Ag impact on biodiversity and
soils
Demand on fisheries,
healthy diets
Food waste
Climate resilient ag, reducing
agifoodemissions
Inclusive Growth
Governance of food systems
Food
Systems
DFID
• Purchased food, urbanization and nutrtion
• Food systems in areas of protracted crises
• Realising the inclusive economic value of agri-food systems
• Impact of food crisis on most vulnerable
• Impact of climate and resource decline on food systems
Foresight4FoodForesgiht4food.net
Food Systems include a set of ‘Activities’ …
Source: The Institute of Medicine & The National Research Council of the National Academies, 2015
… and who all operate influenceda range of ‘Environments’ that drive actor motives.
Or just to attempt to integrate everything!
Migration
Violence
Unemployment
Health costs
Poor diet
Disease
Low productivity
Degraded / overused resources Climate impacts
Lower yields Erratic production levels
Food shortagesPrice spikes
Disease outbreaks
Trade restrictions
Poverty
Competition for resources
Security
Systemic Risks
Environment
Health
Reduced investment
Weakened economy
FOODGender inequality
Mega Trends
•Population
•Urbanization
•Diet
•Climate
•Resource decline
18 29 16 30 37 25 60 54 45
Rapid urbanization & rising middle class…
Projected urban share of global population
Urban
67%
20502014
Urban54%
Source: Ruel et al. 2017
• Nearly 90% of projected urban population increase is concentrated in Asia
and Africa
• China, India, and Nigeria alone expected to add 900 million urban residents
Source: OECD 2010
0
20
40
60
80
2009 2020 2030
North America Europe
Central and South America Asia Pacific
Share of global middle class, 2009-2030 (%)
Source: UN 2014
V
Fruits & Vegetables49%
Cereals and Starches
20%
Milk & Milk Products8%
Meat, fish, eggs, beans20%
VE
G
OIL
Oils & Fats3%
Limit
What we should be eating (Harvard's Healthy Eating Plate Model)
What we are actually producing (According to 2011 FAO)
Fruits & Vegetables
11%
Cereals and Starches47%
VEGOIL
Oils & Fats11%
Sugar16%
Milk and Milk Products4%
Meat, fish, eggs, beans11%
WHO< 5% Evan Fraser, Guelph, FBS analysis, 2015
The Lancet Volume 387, Issue 10026, Pages 1377-1396 (April 2016)
Very very obeseVery obeseObeseOverweightNormalLow normalUnderweight
Trends in age-standardised
prevalence of BMI categories
in women, global
Global malnourishment: the food system doesn’t deliver health through diets
Bajzelj et al (2013)
Supply chain logistics
11% cereals trade
60% US grain export
26% cereals trade~20% fertilisers
14% cereals trade
14% cereals trade~25% fertilisers(50% China’s soy and wheat)
Global markets affect local events
Knowledge Base to Inform Analysis and
Dialogue (5)eg
Actors - their Values and Interests (2)
Understanding the System of Analysis (7)
Trends & Drivers in the System (8)
Scenarios (9)Visions (10)
Influencing Change (11)
Stak
eho
lder
En
gage
men
t(4
)
Part
icip
ato
ry M
eth
od
s an
d t
oo
ls (
6)
Quantitative Modelling
Qualitative analysis and insight from actors
Stakeholder analysis
Empirical Evidence
Framework for Understanding Foresight and Scenario Analysis
Real World Situation (1)
Systems analysis
Purpose and Motivation for Foresight (3)
Note: Numbers are for textual description of the framework and are not a series of steps. The elements of foresight may be implemented concurrently and/or iteratively
Game Theory(how actors may respond)
Data Sets
Woodhill 2018
Rubics Cube of Food Systems Transformation
South Asia Food energy water nexus
Farmers and Food Systems Project
• 12 month project funded by Open Society Foundation
• Updated perspective on long term future for small-scale agriculture in global food system
• What are the systemic risks?
• What are the transformational opportunities?
• Case studies in Zambia and Ghana
• Exploring foresight, scenario and systems methodology with OSF partners
• Providing analysis for OSF on future programming
Taking a System View
Smallholder Production value
adding and Marketing Systems
Rural Livelihoods
Policy Influences & Natural Resources &
Climate Change
Consumption
Food Market Systems Global
RegionalNational
Local DriversTrends IssuesOpportunities
Large Scale farming
How will population, urbanization and diet
change
Who will produce?What will be traded?
How will business models change?
What is a living income?What are non-farm
incomes?Living income
Transformation of Small-Scale Agriculture
Stepping Up
Hanging-In
Moving-out
Policies to support small-scale farmers to be commercial and competitive
Policies to help farmers trade-up or move out
Social protection to help those in poverty
Policies to create decent jobs and provide skills
Social protection to help those in poverty
What scale of change over what period makes sense ?
Getting the Policy Mix RightLiving income
Principles for Responsible INvestment
Implementation Pathways
Institutional Embedding
Mobilizing Understanding, Commitment and Capacity
3) Support by Development and Multi-
Lateral agencies
6) Embedding in Standards for Private and Public Financing
5) Embedding in Government Policy,
Regulation, Programmes and
Funding
1) Promotion by Business and Multi-stakeholder
Platforms andRound Tables
2) Advocacy by Civil Society and Consumer
Groups
4) Embedding in Public and Private
Standards for Sourcing and Trade
Application in Business Operations
9) Integration into Business Operations
of Regional and Domestic Firms / SMEs / Producers
7) Integration into Business Operations
of Global Firms
8) Integration into Coordinated Supply
Chain and Sector Initiatives
Kn
ow
Ho
w
Incentives
Know How
Ince
nti
ves
Kn
ow
Ho
w
Ince
nti
ves
Conditions and Processes for Implementation
Principles
Stakeholder Engagement
Capabilityfor Policy
Development And for Technical Implementation
Embeddingin Policies,
Standards, and Processes
Use in Decision Making and Operations
Monitoring Use and Impacts
Incentives • Profitability• Access to finance• Reputational• Reliability of supply• Competitive• Legal
Governance• Global transparency and
accountability• International commitments
and agreements• Stakeholder consultation• Regional collaboration• National decision making• Private sector processes
EU Food systems
EAT/WEF/WBCSD Food Systems Dialogue
V
Fruits & Vegetables49%
Cereals and Starches
20%
Milk & Milk Products8%
Meat, fish, eggs, beans20%
VE
G
OIL
Oils & Fats3%
Limit
What we should be eating (Harvard's Healthy Eating Plate Model)
What we are actually producing (According to 2011 FAO)
Fruits & Vegetables
11%
Cereals and Starches47%
VEGOIL
Oils & Fats11%
Sugar16%
Milk and Milk Products4%
Meat, fish, eggs, beans11%
WHO< 5% Evan Fraser, Guelph, FBS analysis, 2015
Rapid urbanization & rising middle class…
Projected urban share of global population
Urban
67%
20502014
Urban54%
Source: Ruel et al. 2017
• Nearly 90% of projected urban population increase is concentrated in Asia
and Africa
• China, India, and Nigeria alone expected to add 900 million urban residents
Source: OECD 2010
0
20
40
60
80
2009 2020 2030
North America Europe
Central and South America Asia Pacific
Share of global middle class, 2009-2030 (%)
Source: UN 2014
The Lancet Volume 387, Issue 10026, Pages 1377-1396 (April 2016)
Very very obeseVery obeseObeseOverweightNormalLow normalUnderweight
Trends in age-standardised
prevalence of BMI categories
in women, global
Global malnourishment: the food system doesn’t deliver health through diets
Bajzelj et al (2013)
Supply chain logistics
11% cereals trade
60% US grain export
26% cereals trade~20% fertilisers
14% cereals trade
14% cereals trade~25% fertilisers(50% China’s soy and wheat)
Global markets affect local events
Emerging Issues
•Food safety
•Health costs
•Antimicrobial resistance
•Disease and pest outbreaks
•Food Crises
Technological innovations
Scale-up new, multiple-win technologies
Source: WEF 2018
Blockchain-enabled traceability
• Enhances transparency & traceability of the
food supply chain, land tenure, payments, etc.
• Reduces transaction costs
At the same time, need to consider the impact of these technologies
on smallholders, children’s nutrition, jobs, etc.
Food-sensing technology
• Contributes to reducing domestic food waste
• Identifies pathogens to improve food safety &
prevent costly product recalls
Alternative proteins
• Can help reduce agricultural GHG emissions
and fresh water withdrawals
• Also alleviate health risks associated with meat
consumption
Gene editing for seed improvements
• Can help produce more crops and increase
farmer incomes
• Also improve nutrition outcomes
What is a Small-Scale Farmer?
• Different land size
• Different assets
• Different incomes
• Different locations
• Different access to markets
• Different skills
• Different livelihoods (sources of income)
• Different interests and motivations
Business models
If Ghana is heading to a population of over 50 million that is 80% urbanized what different business models will emerge for small-scale farmers?
From Production Needs to Business Model Thinking
Business Model Canvass
Question
• In groups of three discuss what you see as different business models that could emerge over the next 20 years that would benefit smale-scale farmers?
• Who would they be selling to?
• How would the market be organized?
• How would aggregation to achieve economies of scale be organized?