forensic assessment with adolescent offenders (1): bridging the gap between science and practice...
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Forensic assessment with adolescent offenders (1):
Bridging the gap between science and practice
Corine de Ruiter, PhDMaastricht University
The Netherlands
Lecture presented at the EFCAP Finland Tampere, Finland
November 20, 2014
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Goals of forensic mental health services
• Protection of society against future offending
• Rehabilitation of the individual offender
• Restitution of victim (in particular when victim is in offender’s social network)
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ASSESSMENT CONTEXT
Forensic, mandated evaluation
ASSESSEE (Cluster B)
Personality traits Defensiveness,
Lack insight
Possible defensive
response style, distortion (faking
good/faking bad)
For instance: Risk assessment Criminal responsibility Treatment planning
FORENSIC PSYCHOLOGICAL
ASSESSMENT
-selfreport, with correction for distortion -non-transparant, indirect test methods -use of collateral information (file, significant others) -standardized forensic assessment instruments (FAIs)
Guidelines for forensic psychological assessment, in relation to the forensic setting, the forensic assessee and the psycholegal question (de Ruiter & Kaser-Boyd, 2015)
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Psychological assessment in adolescents (pitfalls)
Heterotypic continuity: the same trait manifests itself differently at different agesEquifinality: different developmental trajectories, same outcomeMultifinality: same developmental trajectories, different outcomes (Hart, Watt, & Vincent, 2002)
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EquifinalityDifferent early experiences in life (e.g., parental divorce, physical abuse, parental substance abuse) can lead to similar outcomes (e.g., childhood depression).
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MultifinalityMultifinality literally means “many ends.” This refers to people having similar histories (e.g., child sexual abuse, death of a parent) yet their developmental outcomes can vary widely.
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Heterotypic continuity
An underlying (developmental) process or impairment stays the same, but the manifestations do not stay the same over time. For example a child with autism might first show impairments of non-verbal skills and problems in eye-contact. In a later developmental stage the manifestations would be different, such as stereotypical behaviours or language problems.
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Biggest problem in assessment with adolescents:
false positives
Many “normal” adolescents show behavior that is quite similar to behavior shown by antisocial peers (Seagrave & Grisso, 2002)
Egocentric behaviorImpulsivityIrresponsible behaviorImpersonal sexual relationshipsLack of ability to work for long-term goals
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On the other hand:there is evidence for stability in antisocial behaviors
Salekin, 2008
Psychopathic traits in early adolescence predict general and violent recidivism 4 years later
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On the other hand:evidence for longitudinal course of psychopathology
• ADHD and ODD at age 8 predicts Borderline Personality Disorder symptoms at age 14 in girls (Burke et al., 2012)
• ADHD and ODD at age 7 to 12 predicts Borderline Personality Disorder symptoms at age 24 in boys (Burke & Stepp, 2012)
• Depression and internalizing symptoms in adolescence predict BPD symptoms 5 to 7 years later (Lewinsohn et al., 1997; Arens et al., 2011)
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Cascading effectsPatterson, Forgatch & DeGarmo (2010)
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Cascading effectsPatterson, Forgatch & DeGarmo (2010)
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Cascading effects: also for intervention efforts!Patterson, Forgatch & DeGarmo (2010)
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ASSESSMENT CONTEXT
Forensic, mandated evaluation
ASSESSEE (Cluster B)
Personality traits Defensiveness,
Lack insight
Possible defensive
response style, distortion (faking
good/faking bad)
For instance: Risk assessment Criminal responsibility Treatment planning
FORENSIC PSYCHOLOGICAL
ASSESSMENT
-selfreport, with correction for distortion -non-transparant, indirect test methods -use of collateral information (file, significant others) -standardized forensic assessment instruments (FAIs)
Guidelines for forensic psychological assessment, in relation to the forensic setting, the forensic assessee and the psycholegal question (de Ruiter & Kaser-Boyd, 2015)
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History of violence risk assessment in a nutshell1981 Monograph by John Monahan started a new generation of research into violence predictionMonahan’s conclusion: Clinical judgment is unreliable and largelyinaccurate (many false positives!)Need for empirical research
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Violence risk research in the 1980’s-90’s: actuarial approaches• Predictor variables that
are quantified and can be rated reliably
• A formal method which uses a formula, actuarial table, etc. to arrive at a probability estimate
• Both predictor variables and weights are derived from empirical research
• Examples -VRAG
-Youth Level of Service-Case Management Inventory
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Example actuarial instrument for sexual reoffending:STATIC-99
Factors add up to a total score between 0 and 12, resulting in 4 risk categories: low (0-1), medium low (2-3), medium high (4-5) and high (≥ 6)
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Actuarial Approaches• Predictionist approach
• Passive, simple
• Two time points, A and B
• Constant risk
P V
Time A Time B
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Violence risk research in the 1990’s-2000’s: SPJ approaches• Predictor variables derived
from empirical research and practice-based knowledge (clinician input)
• No formal method of adding and weighing of predictors
• Option of adding case-specific risk and protective factors
• Greater emphasis on dynamic (changeable) predictors
• Examples:– HCR-20– SAVRY– EARL-20B, EARL-
21G
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Example SPJ instrument for sexual reoffending:SVR-20
Two-step process: Individual risk factors are rated: -Present (2)-Somewhat Present (1) -Absent (0) Weighing and integrating risk factors, resulting in Final Risk Judgment: -Low-Moderate-High
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SPJ: A Model of Risk Assessment
• Relies on forensic-clinical expertise within a structured application
• Logical (not empirical) selection of risk factors
• Review of scientific literature (empirically-based)• Not sample-specific (enhances generalizability)• Comprehensive
• Operational definitions of risk factors• Explicit coding procedures• Promotes reliability
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SPJ: A Model of Risk Assessment (2)
• Allowance for idiographic risk factors• Facilitates flexibility and case-specific
considerations
• Relevance to management and prevention
• Risk decisions are tied directly to risk reduction strategies
• Reflects current themes in the field• Risk is (1) ongoing, (2) dynamic, (3) requires
re-assessment
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SPJ Approaches• Assessment/Management approach
• Active, complex
• Infinite time points
• Variable risk
P V
Time A Time -1
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Meta-analysis of sexual reoffending in juveniles
Viljoen, Mordell, & Beneteau (2012)
• 33 studies on 31 separate samples• N = 6,196; median f.u = 6 years
Predictive validity for sexual reoffending for actuarial total scores
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Meta-analysis of sexual reoffending in juveniles
Viljoen, Mordell, & Beneteau (2012)• Effect sizes were moderate• No single tool emerged as
significantly stronger• ERASOR and J-SOAP include
dynamic risk factors• Static-99 may overestimate risk in
adolescents (as they receive points on young age and unmarried)
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BUT: predictive accuracy is not all that counts…
We want to prevent, not predict! Providing targets for treatment,
intervention, risk management Protecting the rights of the
offender/patient Particularly for individuals in the
criminal justice/forensic system, which tends to be punitive and repressive (safety first, treatment second)
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Rogers (2000)
The uncritical acceptance of risk assessment in forensic practice, Law & Human Behavior, 24, 595 -605
Main points of criticism: “Most adult-based studies are unabashedly one-
sided; the emphasize risk factors to the partial or total exclusion of protective factors” (p. 597)
“Risk-only evaluations are inherently inaccurate” (p. 598)
“Overfocus on risk factors is likely to contribute to professional negativism and result in client stigmatization” (p. 598)
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What is your focus?
• Opportunities or threats?
• Risk or protective factors?
• Deficits or strengths?
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Possible theoretical frameworks
• Resilience (Sir Michael Rutter)• Protective factors (Jessor)• Positive psychology (Martin
Seligman)• Good Lives Model (Tony Ward)• Quality of Life model
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Why protective factors in forensic mental health?
• More balanced risk assessment• More well-rounded view of the
patient• Positive approach to risk prevention:
motivating for both offender/patient and clinician
• Assistance in development of treatment goals
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Protective factors:Definitional issues
• Those factors that decrease the likelihood of engaging in problem behavior; they moderate or buffer the impact of exposure to risk factors (Jessor, 1991)
• Any characteristic of a person, their environment or situation, which reduces risk of future (sexual) violence (De Vogel, De Ruiter, Bouman, & De Vries Robbé, 2007)
– includes the constellation of individual, family, and community characteristics (Rutter, 1985).
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Questions about protective factors in forensic mental
health• Are there protective factors for violence
risk?• Are they not merely the opposite of risk
factors?• How do protective factors influence future
violence risk?– Direct relation to violence?
Mediating/moderating influence?– Combined effect of risk factor and protective
factor?
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Protective factors-examples
• Positive attitudes, values or beliefs• Conflict resolution/problem-solving skills• Community engagement• Steady employment• Stable housing• Availability of services (social,
recreational, cultural, etc.)
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Empirical research on protective factors
1. Follow-up research on delinquent adolescents
2. Follow-up study on adult forensic patients
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1. Adolescent delinquents
Lodewijks, de Ruiter, & Doreleijers (2010), Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 25, 568-587
• Three samples of Dutch juvenile offenders
• All convicted for violent offending• Time at risk averaged 13-22
months in the 3 samples
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Measures
• Independent variable: Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY= SPJ instrument): 24 risk factors, 6 protective factors
• Dependent variable: Recidivism data
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Results
• Failure rates: – Sample 1 ‘Pretrial assessment’: 19% (official
reconvictions)
– Sample 2 ‘Institutional assessment’: 49% (violence in the institution)
– Sample 3 ‘Assessment prior to release’: 36% (police register)
Lodewijks, de Ruiter, & Doreleijers (2010).
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ResultsLodewijks, de Ruiter, & Doreleijers (2010).
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Results (protective item level)
• In all 3 samples– P2 (strong social support; AUCs ranging from .32 to .36, p < .05) – P3 (strong attachments; AUCs from .30-.35, p
< .05) had significant predictive value
• In the institutional violence sample– P5 (strong commitment to school; AUC = .28, p
= .001)– P4 (positive attitude towards intervention and
authority; AUC = .35, p < .05) were significant protective predictors
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2. Adult forensic patients
– De Vries Robbé et al. (2011): forensic patients after release
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Risk- & Protective factors
Historical factorsH1 Previous violenceH2 Young age at first violenceH3 Relationship instabilityH4 Employment problemsH5 Substance use problemsH6 Major mental illnessH7 Psychopathy (PCL-R)H8 Early maladjustmentH9 Personality disorderH10 Prior supervision failure
Clinical factorsC1 Lack of insightC2 Negative attitudesC3 Active symptoms of major mental illnessC4 ImpulsivityC5 Unresponsive to treatment
Risk Management factorsR1 Plans lacks feasibilityR2 Exposure to destabilizersR3 Lack of personal supportR4 Noncompliance with remediation attemptsR5 Stress
HCR-20 Internal factors1 Intelligence2 Secure attachment in childhood3 Empathy4 Coping5 Self-control
Motivational factors6 Work7 Leisure activities8 Financial management9 Motivation for treatment10 Attitudes towards authority11 Life goals12 Medication
External factors13 Social network14 Intimate relationship15 Professional care16 Living circumstances17 Supervision
SAPROF
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Research HCR-20 & SAPROFVan der Hoeven Kliniek, The Netherlands
Retrospective file study- N = 188 violent + sexual ♂ offenders- Treatment length: 5.7 years- Outcome: Reconvictions for violent offense- Follow-up in community after discharge:
- 1 year- 3 year- 11 year (M)
De Vries Robbé & De Vogel, 2012De Vries Robbé, De Vogel & Douglas, 2013
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Predictive validity for violent recidivismRetrospective File Study of Violent + Sexual Offenders (N=188)
AUC 1 year follow-up 14 recidivists
AUC 3 years follow-up 34 recidivists
AUC 11 years follow-up 68 recidivists
SAPROF (total)
.85*
.75*
.73*
HCR-20 (total) .84* .73* .64*
HCR-SAPROF (total)
.87* .76* .70*
N = 188, * p < .01
HCR-SAPROF > HCR-20: χ² (1, N = 188) = 13.4, p < .001 (11 years)
De Vries Robbé, De Vogel & Douglas, 2013
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0102030405060708090
100
1 year 3 year 11 year
Lowprotection
Moderateprotection
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 year 3 year 11 year
Lowprotection
Moderateprotection
Highprotection
Moderate risk High risk
Differentiation of risk groups
Final Protection JudgmentLow
Moderate
High
Final Risk JudgmentLow
Moderate
High
Logistic regression at all f-u: sign. incremental predictive validity of FPJ over FRJ De Vries Robbé, De Vogel & Douglas, 2013
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Recently developed instruments for assessment of protective
factors in adolescent offenders• START-Adolescent Version (Viljoen et
al., 2012)– 23 dynamic, treatment-relevant items, rated for
Strength and Vulnerability, on a 3-point scale– SPJ approach
• Predictive validity findings (3 months follow-up):– Total Strength AUC=. 73 for nonreoffending– Total Vulnerability AUC= .70 for reoffending
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Recently developed instruments for assessment of protective
factors in adolescent offenders
SAPROF-Adolescent Version (de Vries Robbé et al., 2014)
Available through www.saprof.com
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From risk and protective factors assessment to effective risk
prevention
assessment
prevention
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Hope is the dream of a waking man- Aristotle
www.corinederuiter.eu