forecasting nfl success with physical attribute … nfl success with physical attribute tests...

1

Relevance of the Combine

Forecasting NFL Success

With Physical Attribute Tests

Revision 2.0

By Joe Landers

Friday, February 20, 2009

2

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction___________________________________________________________ 3 Exceeded Peer Average Model__________________________________________________ 3

Attribute Success Correlation Model _____________________________________________ 4

EPA and ASC Cheat Sheet _____________________________________________________ 5

Offense _______________________________________________________________ 6 Wide Receiver ______________________________________________________________ 6

Center ____________________________________________________________________ 11

Offensive Guard ____________________________________________________________ 15

Offensive Tackle____________________________________________________________ 19

Running Back ______________________________________________________________ 23

Tight End _________________________________________________________________ 27

Fullback __________________________________________________________________ 31

Quarterback________________________________________________________________ 35

Defense ______________________________________________________________ 39 Cornerback ________________________________________________________________ 39

Defensive Tackle ___________________________________________________________ 43

Defensive End______________________________________________________________ 47

Linebacker ________________________________________________________________ 51

Safety ____________________________________________________________________ 55

Conclusions __________________________________________________________ 59

References ___________________________________________________________ 60

3

Relevance of the Combine Physical Attribute Testing and NFL Success Friday, February 20, 2009

By Joe Landers The college football season’s concluded, the showcase games are wrapping up, and we’re rapidly approaching the part of the off-season where the sole focus is measuring each prospect’s aptitude in each of the seven major physical attributes: short shuttle, long shuttle, three-cone, vertical jump, broad jump, 40-yard dash, and bench. Going into this off-season of individual assessments, I want to be able to forecast which prospects will have the highest odds of success. Let’s take Crabtree for example. I don’t know if he’s really the best receiver prospect out there or if he’s tremendously over-valued at this point, but after he completes his tests, I’ll have a much better idea. Here’s how: In this study, I take physical attribute data from 2,430 prospects that had recorded and published results between 2005 and 2008 and perform comparative analysis to correlate test results with real-world NFL success. While I could use my point-based model to determine a player’s success, the easiest method to determine success for this study is to look at where a player spent most of his 2008 season: 1st string, 2nd string, rostered (3rd-4th string/PSq), cut, or never signed. I use two new statistics to forecast how future prospects will achieve similar success – Exceeded Peer Average (EPA) and Attribute Success Correlation (ASC). Exceeded Peer Average (EPA) The EPA study gives us the correlation between overall physical attribute testing performance and on-field success. It takes all seven physical attribute tests into account and tells us in how many categories a certain prospect performed better than his peers. One conclusion I can state right up front is that, as a collective representation of how a prospect’s attributes compare to his peers, EPA is a better indicator of future success than any particular attribute test. ASC tables below will show why EPA is generally a better indicator of future success, but we’ll also see which attributes are more important than others at each position. We can see with the EPA model, for example, that 46.2% of the corners who Exceeded Peer Average in 6 categories were NFL starters in 2008. 76.9% of corners with an EPA of 6 were on Two-Deeps in 2008. 92.3% of EPA 6 CBs were still on rosters in 2008. All figures are incredibly impressive and compelling. If I’m considering drafting Vontae Davis or Malcolm Jenkins in the first round, I sure would get a big nice warm fuzzy if they posted an EPA of 6. The difference between CBs with an EPA of 4 or 5 and those with an EPA of 6 is significant. See the table below:

4

CBProspect

Count Starter Two-Deep On RosterMade Camp

Never Signed

7 2 0% 50% 100% 100% 0%6 13 46% 77% 92% 100% 0%5 29 24% 66% 69% 97% 3%4 44 23% 43% 61% 95% 5%3 43 2% 19% 35% 79% 21%2 40 10% 18% 40% 83% 18%1 39 3% 10% 23% 77% 23%0 27 0% 11% 26% 59% 41%

All 237 12% 30% 46% 84% 16% For those with an EPA of 5, their starting percentage in the NFL drops from 46.2% (at EPA6) to 24.1% - nearly half as likely to start. For EPA4’s, it’s 23%. From EPA4 CBs down to EPA3 and below, it’s a drastic drop-off for future starters – 2%, 10%, 3%, and 0%. Attribute Success Correlation (ASC) The ASC model aims to draw correlations (or dispel myths) between specific physical attribute tests and NFL success. For example, the average vertical jump for a corner from the last four years of Combines and Pro Days is 36.82 inches. 198 corners attended a camp as rookies over the last four years. Of those 198, only 108 were still on rosters in 2008. Of those 108, only 58 exceeded peer average (at the CB position) in the vertical jump.

% > EPA > EPA < EPA

1st String % 55% 16 13 29

Two-Deep % 60% 43 29 72

On Roster % 54% 58 50 108

Made Camp % 46% 92 106 198

Never Signed % 31% 12 27 39

Total 44% 104 133 237

Vertical Jump - CBs (Avg 36.82)Attribute Success Correlation

Total

In otherwords, only 54% jumped higher than 36.82 at the Combine or at their Pro Day. The number is 55% for starters (16 out of 29 EPA’d in the vert) and 60% for those on the two-deep. It’s fair to say there is only a minor correlation between doing better than your peers in the vertical jump and actual NFL success at the cornerback position. Is there a stronger correlation between 40 times and NFL success for corners? Bench? Broad jump? We’ll find out. What I’ll do in this study is look at each position from an EPA and ASC perspective in an effort to allow us to better identify prospects in the 2009 NFL Draft who have the highest odds for success in the NFL.

5

EPA and ASC Cheat Sheet The following table is the product of this study and one that no staff should go without. It illustrates the average at each position and how important each attribute is to forecasting NFL success. It should be a table referred to again and again.

Avg 1st% Avg 1st% Avg 1st% Avg 1st% Avg 1st% Avg 1st% Avg 1st%

C 5 4.69 89% n/a n/a 7.78 44% 28.83 44% 100 44% 5.25 78% 25.62 67%

CB 6 4.21 72% 11.47 17% 6.98 76% 36.82 55% 122 72% 4.49 83% 14.18 48%

DE 6 4.46 57% 11.98 13% 7.37 57% 32.72 57% 113 57% 4.90 65% 23.74 43%

DT 6 4.61 57% 12.44 n/a 7.67 65% 30.10 43% 106 52% 5.11 61% 26.43 43%

FB 5 4.38 36% 12.05 18% 7.27 64% 32.93 36% 112 55% 4.74 27% 23.94 36%

LB 6 4.33 58% 11.82 20% 7.18 47% 34.73 51% 116 49% 4.70 67% 22.15 51%

OG 4 4.72 53% n/a n/a 7.84 65% 28.45 53% 101 47% 5.31 53% 25.34 41%

OT 5 4.74 37% n/a n/a 7.83 44% 29.24 46% 102 49% 5.27 66% 24.35 37%

QB 3 4.34 38% 11.65 0% 7.13 31% 31.87 31% 111 23% 4.81 0% 16.77 8%

RB 4 4.32 50% 11.73 25% 7.13 50% 34.90 50% 117 50% 4.57 69% 18.67 38%

S 1 4.25 46% 11.61 23% 7.04 46% 35.82 23% 119 29% 4.58 74% 16.33 31%

TE 5 4.38 47% 11.97 18% 7.19 47% 33.42 59% 113 59% 4.80 76% 20.46 53%

WR 6 4.26 39% 11.49 26% 7.01 57% 36.05 83% 121 65% 4.53 83% 15.14 26%

Broad Jump 40-yd Dash Bench RepsThree ConeVertical JumpPos

Opt EPA

Short Shuttle

Long Shuttle

The elements reflected above are: 1) the optimal number of attributes in which a prospect needs to exceed peer average (Opt EPA) at each position, 2) the average test result at each position (Avg), and 3) the percent of prospects that exceeded peer average AND started in 2008 (1st%). The bolded percentages represent the top attributes for the respective position. For example, the 40 (83%), 3-cone (76%), Broad Jump (72%), and Short Shuttle (72%) are the four most important attributes to the cornerback (CB) position. Given a decent sample size, when 83% of the starters at any given position exceed peer average, it’s highly likely that attribute is a requisite for success. Looking at the above table, it’s easy to see if you’re looking for the ideal running back, he’ll exceed peer average in four categories. 69% of starting running backs (from the ’05-’08 pool), exceeded peer average in the 40-yard dash. In the next phase of the study, we’ll break down the source of all of the above numbers and provide more in-depth analysis by position – first by offense, then by defense.

6

OFFENSE Wide Receiver

Exceeded Peer Average (EPA) - WRs

For a wide receiver to be successful it’s important that he test out somewhere between an EPA of 6 and an EPA of 4. An EPA of 6 is optimal. Again, with EPA, we’re not looking at specific attribute test results; we’re looking at the whole view of the prospect and how physically superior he is compared to his peers in all categories combined.

WRProspect


Never Signed

7 1 0% 0% 100% 100% 0%6 16 31% 63% 63% 88% 13%5 30 10% 20% 50% 97% 3%4 58 9% 26% 50% 97% 3%3 60 7% 27% 45% 87% 13%2 70 6% 13% 36% 79% 21%1 79 3% 6% 23% 68% 32%0 51 0% 2% 12% 57% 43%

All 365 6% 17% 36% 79% 21% As you can see above, of the 16 wide receiver prospects between 2005 and 2008 that exceeded their peer average in 6 categories, 31% (nearly a third) started in 2008 and 63% were on two-deeps. Both figures (31% 1stStr, 63% 2-dp) represent the highest propensity for any EPA level at the wide receiver position. For Crabtree, Maclin, or Percy to have their highest odds for success in the league, their physical attributes will need to test out such that they exceed their peer average in all but one category.

The adjacent radar chart corresponds directly to the above table. As you can see, WRs with an EPA of 6 experienced a much higher degree of success than those with an EPA of 0, 1, or 2. Those that came in between an EPA of 4 and 5 did well, but nowhere near as well as those with an EPA of 6. Here are five examples of prospects between 2005 and 2008 that came into the league with an EPA of 6 and started in the 2008 season: Vincent Jackson,

WR - EPA

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0StarterTwo-DeepOn RosterM ade CampNever Signed

7

Reggie Brown, Matt Jones, Domenik Hixon, and Donnie Avery. Notable 2008 starters who tested out with an EPA of 4 or 5: Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, Mark Bradley, Mark Clayton, Roddy White, Dwayne Bowe, and Johnnie Lee Higgins. There are great 2008 starters who came in with an EPA of 3, 2, and 1 (none with 0), but the overall subset of other players with those EPAs (but aren’t starting) is very large, thus, driving the odds for success down for anyone testing out with an EPA of 3 or lower.

Attribute Success Correlation (ASC) - WRs

Great, so we know that receivers who exceed their peer average in 6 of the physical attribute tests have the highest degree of success. Well, which attributes have the strongest correlation with NFL success? Vert? 40? Short-shuttle? In order, the most important attribute tests at the WR position are: 40, vert, broad, and 3-cone. Short shuttle, long shuttle, and bench may have some relevance, but much less so than the first four. All together, as noted above, odds are best when a WR EPAs in six categories. Four of those six certainly should be 40, vert, broad, and 3-cone. Of the remaining three, the one that appears less relevant than the rest is the Bench Press. 26% of 2008 starters EPA’d in the bench, but only 19% were on two-deeps, 15% on rosters, and 18% made camp – collectively, the lowest grouping of any particular attribute at the WR position. 40-Yard Dash – WR

The #1 indicator of future success, but certainly not to be considered alone. To be a safe bet, WRs need to exceed peer average in five other categories.

% EPA # EPA # Ovr Avg

1st String 83% 19 4 23

Two-Deep 76% 47 15 62

On Roster 70% 92 39 131

Made Camp 55% 160 130 290

Never Signed 23% 17 58 75

All WR Prospects 48% 177 188 365

Attribute Success Correlation

40-yd Dash - WR (Avg 4.53)Total

Jerome Mathis is the poster child illustrating why a 40 time alone should not govern a team’s opinion of a wide receiver. Notable 2008 starter times: Braylon 4.49, Vincent Jackson and Roddy 4.46, Reggie Brown and Bowe 4.45, Mark Clayton 4.40, Santonio 4.35, and Johnnie Lee Higgins 4.34.

Vertical Jump – WR

Are you kidding me? 83% of starters EPA’d and two-thirds of two-deepers? Wow. The vert represents a very strong correlation.

8


1st String 83% 19 4 23

Two-Deep 66% 41 21 62

On Roster 50% 66 65 131

Made Camp 42% 121 169 290




Vertical Jump - WR (Avg 36.05)Total

You better have a higher than average vert if you plan on starting in the NFL. Notables: Roddy 41.0, Mark Bradley 39.5, Vincent Jackson 39.0, Hixon 38.5, Santonio 38.0, Avery, Braylon, and Bowe 37.5.

Broad Jump - WR

Why the broad jump physiologically translates to NFL success, I’m not sure I can say. What I can say is that two-thirds (65%) of the 2008 starters EPA’d in the broad as did two-thirds of the two-deepers in 2008.


1st String 65% 15 8 23

Two-Deep 65% 40 22 62

On Roster 53% 70 61 131

Made Camp 45% 130 160 290




Broad Jump - WR (Avg 121/10'1")Total

Notables: Mark Bradley 128, Santonio 126, and Bowe 125. Three-Cone - WR

Standing on its own, the three-cone drill appears to have some degree of relevance to the wide receiver position. It’s not strikingly convincing, but 13 of 23 WR starters Exceeded Peer Average in the 3-cone drill (57%).


1st String 57% 13 10 23

Two-Deep 56% 35 27 62

On Roster 50% 65 66 131

Made Camp 45% 130 160 290




Three-Cone - WR (Avg 7.01)Total

9

We can conclude that the 3-cone is more crucial than the short shuttle or long shuttle to success at WR. 57% of starters EPA’d in the 3-cone while only 39% did in the short shuttle and 26% did in the long shuttle.

Short Shuttle - WR

No direct relevance. In no way does a good short shuttle imply that a receiver will succeed in the NFL, but as we saw with the above EPA analysis, it certainly plays a role in the prospect’s overall odds for success.


1st String 39% 9 14 23

Two-Deep 50% 31 31 62

On Roster 47% 61 70 131

Made Camp 46% 133 157 290



TotalAttribute Success

Correlation

ShortShuttle - WR (Avg 4.26)

As you can see, in the 2008 season, there were 23 starting receivers in the NFL (1st String %) who tested out in the past four years as prospects (2005-2008). Of those 23, only 9 (39%) had a short shuttle time which was better than their peer average of 4.26. Having a better-than-average short shuttle isn’t quite counter-productive, but it’s certainly not a requisite for starting at the receiver position in the NFL. The only clear conclusion to draw from the Short Shuttle ASC table above is that a prospect’s odds for even being signed to a camp drop dramatically (all the way to 20%) if he does not have a short shuttle which is better than the peer average at the WR position.

Long Shuttle - WR

The long shuttle is not relevant to the wide receiver position. When at least 3 times as many starters, two-deep players, and rostered guys came in with a long shuttle of 11.49 or above (worse than average), it’s a clear sign that the long shuttle cannot be relied upon to foretell future success for wide receivers.


1st String 26% 6 17 23

Two-Deep 24% 15 47 62

On Roster 25% 33 98 131

Made Camp 18% 53 237 290




Long Shuttle - WR (Avg 11.49)Total

10

What we’ll see throughout this study is that the long-shuttle is irrelevant to forecasting future success at almost every single position.

Bench Press – WR

No correlation. Irrelevant.


1st String 26% 6 17 23

Two-Deep 19% 12 50 62

On Roster 15% 20 111 131

Made Camp 18% 53 237 290




Bench - WRs (Avg 15.14)Total

With starters EPA’g in the bench only 26% of the time and two-deepers 19%, rostered guys 15%, and campers 18%, bench is the least compelling of the seven attribute tests for the wide receiver position.

11

C - EPA

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%EPA7

EPA6

EPA5

EPA4

EPA3

EPA2

EPA1

EPA0 StarterTwo-DeepOn RosterM ade CampNever Signed

Center Exceeded Peer Average (EPA) - Centers

Surprisingly, Center comes up as the #3 most predictable position on offense. Looking at the nine centers with an EPA of 5, 33% (3) were starters in 2008, 78% were on two-deeps, 78% were on rosters, and 100% made camp. (Zero of the EPA5 Centers were left out of a camp.)

CProspect


Never Signed

7 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%6 5 20% 40% 40% 100% 0%5 9 33% 78% 78% 100% 0%4 5 0% 0% 0% 80% 20%3 12 17% 42% 50% 92% 8%2 20 15% 30% 45% 85% 15%1 10 0% 10% 10% 80% 20%0 7 0% 14% 14% 71% 29%

All 68 13% 32% 38% 87% 13%

The adjacent radar chart corresponds directly to the above table. Centers with an EPA of 2 to 6 have the highest degree of success. Come in lower than EPA2 and the odds for success go down significantly. Three prospects between 2005 and 2008 came into the league with an EPA of 5 and started in the 2008 season: Eric Ghiaciuc, Ryan Kalil, and Chris Spencer. Jason Brown Exceeded Peer Average in 6 attributes while Nick Mangold and Samson Satele did so in 3.

Attribute Success Correlation (ASC) - Centers

Short shuttle, 40, and bench stack up as the three most important attributes to have at the center position. As long as center prospects exceed peer average in two of the other four attributes, they’ll demonstrate enough prowess to be prime candidates to excel at the center position and succeed in the league. (Considering that no offensive linemen run the long shuttle, centers really only have six attributes in which they test.)

12

Short Shuttle – C

Perhaps it’s because of a center’s need to be able to move quickly in tight quarters or maybe it’s because it’s the smallest offensive line position. Whatever the reason, 8 of the 9 starting centers (89%) Exceeded Peer Average in the short shuttle. The Short Shuttle is the most telling attribute test for centers that tested as prospects between 2005 and 2008.


1st String 89% 8 1 9

Two-Deep 82% 18 4 22

On Roster 69% 18 8 26

Made Camp 51% 30 29 59


All C Prospects 44% 30 38 68


Correlation

ShortShuttle - C (Avg 4.69)

Notables: Eric Ghiaciuc 4.64, Chris Spencer 4.61, Jason Brown 4.52, Nick Mangold 4.36, Ryan Kalil 4.34, and Samson Satele 4.29.

40-Yard Dash – C

With the average tackle running a 5.27 and the average guard running a 5.31, the centers may be the fastest offensive linemen at 5.25, but they’re far from gazelles. Having said that, by virtue of 78% of the starting centers running a 40 of 5.24 or lower, the 40 is clearly an indicator for future success for centers.



Two-Deep 55% 12 10 22

On Roster 58% 15 11 26

Made Camp 49% 29 30 59




40-yd Dash - C (Avg 5.25)Total

In late February, we’ll hopefully see what Alex Mack, Max Unger, and Eric Wood can do under the gun. Notables who came out between 2005 and 2008: Chris Spencer 5.21, Jason Brown 5.17, Eric Ghiaciuc 5.09, and Ryan Kalil 4.96.

Bench Press – C

Two-thirds of the starting centers did 26 presses or more. Bench is the #3 indicator for centers.

13



Two-Deep 55% 12 10 22

On Roster 50% 13 13 26

Made Camp 46% 27 32 59




Bench - Cs (Avg 25.62)Total

Notables: Jason Brown and Chris Spencer 26, Eric Ghiaciuc 30, and Ryan Kalil 34.

Three-Cone – C

With only 44% of starters exceeding peer average, the 3-cone does not look overly critical in and of itself.



Two-Deep 59% 13 9 22

On Roster 58% 15 11 26

Made Camp 46% 27 32 59




Three-Cone - C (Avg 7.78)Total

Broad Jump - C

44% - nice to have as a piece of the puzzle, but not critical.



Two-Deep 50% 11 11 22

On Roster 50% 13 13 26

Made Camp 46% 27 32 59




Broad Jump - C (Avg 100/8'4")Total

Vertical Jump – C

44% - sum of the parts

14



Two-Deep 41% 9 13 22

On Roster 38% 10 16 26

Made Camp 44% 26 33 59




Vertical Jump - C (Avg 28.83)Total

Long Shuttle – C No centers had recorded long shuttle times between 2005 and 2008.


1st String 0% 0 9 9

Two-Deep 0% 0 22 22

On Roster 0% 0 26 26

Made Camp 0% 0 59 59




Long Shuttle - C (Avg n/a)Total

15

OG - EPA

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%EPA7

EPA6

EPA5

EPA4

EPA3

EPA2

EPA1


Offensive Guards Exceeded Peer Average (EPA) – Offensive Guards

EPA4 is going to be the most optimal for Offensive Guards. 5 of the 20 guards who posted an EPA of 4 (25%) started in 2008.

OGProspect


Never Signed

7 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%6 8 13% 88% 88% 100% 0%5 13 15% 38% 54% 85% 15%4 20 25% 40% 55% 90% 10%3 28 14% 46% 50% 75% 25%2 21 10% 10% 38% 86% 14%1 29 3% 21% 45% 86% 14%0 21 10% 14% 19% 48% 52%

All 140 29% 61% 73% 117% 18%

While only 1 out of 8 (13%) of the EPA6 guards started in 2008, 88% (7 out of 8) were 2nd stringers on two-deeps. Clearly, they are perceived to have the physical tools to perform and they’re simply being groomed for starting roles.

The adjacent radar chart corresponds directly to the above table. Guards with an EPA of 3 to 6 have the highest degree of success. Come in lower than EPA3 and the odds for success go down significantly. Five prospects between 2005 and 2008 came into the league with an EPA of 4 and started in the 2008 season: Logan Mankins, Shawn Murphy, Chris Kemoeatu, Rob Sims, and Chris Kuper. David Baas EPA’d in 6, Chris Myers and Chris Chester 5, and Ben Grubbs, Deuce Lutui, Jason Spitz, and Donald Thomas EPA’d in 3.

Attribute Success Correlation (ASC) - Guards

The Three-Cone drill is really the only attribute which is telling at the guard position: 65% of the 17 starters exceeded peer average in the three-cone drill. The rest, in order, are: Short Shuttle 53%, Vert 53%, 40 53%, Broad 47%, and Bench 41%. The Long Shuttle was not run by a Guard between 2005 and 2008.

16

Three-Cone – OG

Two-thirds of the starting guards ran a three-cone drill in times that exceeded the peer average of 7.84. It is the #1 attribute for guards.


1st String 65% 11 6 17

Two-Deep 63% 29 17 46

On Roster 53% 34 30 64

Made Camp 48% 53 58 111


All OG Prospects 44% 61 79 140


Three-Cone - OG (Avg 7.84)Total

Notables: Ben Grubbs 7.70, Chris Kuper 7.59, Logan Mankins 7.54, Donald Thomas 7.45, and Chris Chester 7.31.

40-Yard Dash – OG

At 53%, the 40 should only be considered in conjunction with other drills.


1st String 53% 9 8 17

Two-Deep 59% 27 19 46

On Roster 52% 33 31 64

Made Camp 51% 57 54 111




40-yd Dash - OG (Avg 5.31)Total

Notables: Ike Ndukwe 5.23, Chris Myers 5.15, Shawn Murphy 5.14, Ben Grubbs and Chris Kuper 5.10, and Chris Chester 4.88.

Short Shuttle – OG

The short shuttle is tied for 2nd at 53% for guard top attributes.


1st String 53% 9 8 17

Two-Deep 59% 27 19 46

On Roster 50% 32 32 64

Made Camp 42% 47 64 111




Correlation

ShortShuttle - OG (Avg 4.72)

17

Notables: Chris Kuper 4.60, Chris Kemoeatu 4.57, Jason Spitz 4.55, David Baas 4.48, and Shawn Murphy 4.44.

Vertical Jump – OG

Tied for 2nd at 53%.


1st String 53% 9 8 17

Two-Deep 54% 25 21 46

On Roster 48% 31 33 64

Made Camp 47% 52 59 111




Vertical Jump - OG (Avg 28.45)Total

Notables: Jason Spitz 28.5, David Baas and Donald Thomas 29.5, Chris Chester and Logan Mankins 31.5, and Deuce Lutui and Chris Myers 32.0.

Broad Jump - OG

47% - a piece of the pie not to be viewed alone.


1st String 47% 8 9 17

Two-Deep 54% 25 21 46

On Roster 48% 31 33 64

Made Camp 40% 44 67 111




Broad Jump - OG (Avg 101/8'5")Total

Bench Press – OG

41% - a piece of the puzzle.


1st String 41% 7 10 17

Two-Deep 52% 24 22 46

On Roster 48% 31 33 64

Made Camp 41% 46 65 111




Bench - OGs (Avg 25.34)Total

18

Long Shuttle – OG No guards had recorded long shuttle times between 2005 and 2008.


1st String 0% 0 17 17

Two-Deep 0% 0 46 46


Made Camp 0% 0 111 111




Long Shuttle - OG (Avg n/a)Total

19

OT - EPA

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%EPA7

EPA6

EPA5

EPA4

EPA3

EPA2

EPA1


Offensive Tackles Exceeded Peer Average (EPA) – Offensive Tackles

The optimal EPA number of Offensive Tackles is 5. 38% of the 21 prospects who Exceeded Peer Average 5 times started in 2008. 57% were on two-deeps, 62% were on rosters, and 90% attended a camp.

OTProspect


Never Signed

7 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%6 6 33% 67% 67% 83% 17%5 21 38% 57% 62% 90% 10%4 25 20% 48% 60% 96% 4%3 41 17% 54% 63% 98% 2%2 26 27% 50% 69% 88% 12%1 35 20% 46% 51% 86% 14%0 35 14% 20% 23% 66% 34%

All 189 22% 46% 54% 87% 13% Get below an EPA of 5 and all prospects between EPA2 and EPA4 blend in together. It would appear that it’s all a matter of what attributes they bring to the table, what a certain team needs, and how the prospect and the team fit together.

The adjacent radar chart corresponds directly to the above table. Tackles with an EPA of 5 to 6 have the highest degree of success. Those with an EPA of 4 or below don’t have a dramatically lower chance of success, but it is noticeably lower. Eight prospects between 2005 and 2008 came into the league with an EPA of 5 and started in the 2008 season: Jeromey Clary, Arron Sears, Eric Winston, Daryn Colledge, Davin Joseph, Duane Brown, Ryan Clady, and Andrew Whitworth. Joe Staley and Khalif Barnes Exceeded Peer Average in 6 attributes.

Attribute Success Correlation (ASC) - Tackles

Not only is there but one attribute which stands out for Offensive Tackles, but it is the only one which is even over 50%. While it is important that OTs exceed peer average in five of the six OT attributes (long shuttle excluded), the only one that appears to be preferred is the 40-yard dash at 66%.

20

40-Yard Dash – OT

Two-thirds of the 41 starting offensive tackles exceed peer average in the 40 and ran a 5.26 or better. It is the #1 attribute for OTs.


1st String 66% 27 14 41

Two-Deep 59% 51 36 87

On Roster 58% 59 43 102

Made Camp 48% 79 85 164


All OT Prospects 46% 87 102 189


40-yd Dash - OT (Avg 5.27)Total

Maybe Andre Smith, Eugene Monroe, and Jason Smith don’t have to run a 4.81 to be successful at tackle, but it would be a lot more comforting to see them run a 5.26 or better. Notables: Jeremy Trueblood 5.25, Ryan Clady 5.23, Todd Herremans 5.22, Branden Albert 5.17, Marshal Yanda 5.15, Davin Joseph 5.09, Gosder Cherilus 5.03, Alex Barron and Eric Winston 4.94, Joe Thomas and Khalif Barnes 4.92, and Joe Staley 4.82.

Broad Jump - OT

It may be #2 at 49%, but it’s not compulsory.


1st String 49% 20 21 41

Two-Deep 49% 43 44 87

On Roster 48% 49 53 102

Made Camp 45% 73 91 164




Broad Jump - OT (Avg 102/8'6")Total

Vertical Jump – OT

OTs are best advised to hit five of six attributes, but at 46%, the vert doesn’t have to be one.

21


1st String 46% 19 22 41

Two-Deep 47% 41 46 87

On Roster 45% 46 56 102

Made Camp 43% 71 93 164




Vertical Jump - OT (Avg 29.24)Total

Three-Cone – OT

At 44%, the 3-cone is a nice to have, but still just a piece of the pie.


1st String 44% 18 23 41

Two-Deep 45% 39 48 87

On Roster 48% 49 53 102

Made Camp 41% 68 96 164




Three-Cone - OT (Avg 7.83)Total

Short Shuttle – OT

With 37%, the short shuttle cannot stand on its own.


1st String 37% 15 26 41

Two-Deep 39% 34 53 87

On Roster 42% 43 59 102

Made Camp 38% 63 101 164




Correlation

ShortShuttle - OT (Avg 4.74)

Bench Press – OT

At 37%, the bench is just a piece.

22


1st String 37% 15 26 41

Two-Deep 38% 33 54 87

On Roster 34% 35 67 102

Made Camp 38% 63 101 164




Bench - OTs (Avg 24.35)Total

Long Shuttle – OT No tackles had recorded long shuttle times between 2005 and 2008.


1st String 0% 0 41 41

Two-Deep 0% 0 87 87

On Roster 0% 0 102 102

Made Camp 0% 0 164 164




Long Shuttle - OT (Avg n/a)Total

23

RB - EPA

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%EPA7

EPA6

EPA5

EPA4

EPA3

EPA2

EPA1


Running Back Exceeded Peer Average (EPA) - RBs

The optimal EPA count for a running back is four. At four, there have been 31 prospects (2005-2008) and 13% of them have turned out starters, 29% on two-deeps, 65% rostered, and 97% made camps. (The delta between making a camp and being rostered is the count of players who were cut after attending a camp.)

RBProspect


Never Signed

7 3 33% 33% 33% 67% 33%6 13 8% 31% 54% 92% 8%5 22 5% 23% 36% 86% 14%4 31 13% 29% 65% 97% 3%3 48 13% 23% 46% 79% 21%2 34 0% 3% 41% 71% 29%1 37 3% 3% 24% 54% 46%0 20 10% 10% 25% 50% 50%

All 208 8% 16% 41% 75% 25% On the surface, EPA7 looks to be the most compelling - 33% turned out to be starters. With a prospect count of 3, the 33% associated with the Starter% and Two-Deep% is not reliable. Anywhere in between an EPA of 3 and an EPA of 6 looks to be sufficient, but those with EPA4 do have the best odds across the board.

The adjacent radar chart corresponds directly to the above table. RBs with an EPA of 3 to 6 have the highest degree of success (see the dark blue “Starter” line). Come in lower than EPA3 and the odds for success go down significantly. Four prospects between 2005 and 2008 came into the league with an EPA of 4 and started in the 2008 season: Marshawn Lynch, Brandon Jacobs, Steve Slaton, and Laurence Maroney. Matt Forte was an EPA5, DeAngelo Williams exceeded in 6 categories (EPA6), and the following six players were all EPA3’s: Adrian Peterson, Joseph Addai, Ryan Grant, Ronnie Brown, Frank Gore, and Selvin Young. When you hear that Marion Barber was one of the three prospects to Exceed Peer Average in all seven categories (EPA7), you may feel inclined to jump at Javon Ringer, for example, if he exceeds in all seven attributes. Think again. EPA7 is no

24

guarantee of success. Marion’s the only guy to be on a two-deep out of the three EPA7’s. The other two? Alvin Pearman and Chris Bruhn. Be just as impressed by the EPA3’s, 4’s, 5’s, and 6’s as you are with a guy that may exceed in all seven attributes.

Attribute Success Correlation (ASC) - RBs

For Running Backs, the 40 is the most compelling attribute If I’m going to justify spending a top-20 pick on Knowshon, Chris Wells, or LeSean, I’d sure feel a lot better about the decision if they would EPA in those four attributes. 40-Yard Dash – RB

Since the 40 gets so much attention, it’s worth noting that it’s not crucial that a RB runs a 4.24 like Chris Johnson. After all, they’d need to have the same size, elusiveness, and experience that Chris does. Witness Brian Calhoun (4.38) and Danny Woodhead (4.39). Sure, they have both dealt with injuries, but their size-deficiency may lend to injuries thus negating the speed benefit. It is #1, but pairing the 40 speed with three other attributes in which they EPA is vital.


1st String 69% 11 5 16

Two-Deep 86% 30 5 35

On Roster 70% 60 26 86

Made Camp 57% 89 66 155


All RB Prospects 50% 103 105 208


40-yd Dash - RB (Avg 4.57)Total

It’s a nice bonus to have 4.33 McFadden speed or 4.35 Reggie Bush speed, but it’s not a mandate. Marion Barber ran a 4.50, Forte, Lynch, and Slaton all ran 4.46’s, and Brandon Jacobs ran a 4.56.

Broad Jump - RB

It’s nice to see an RB hit 129 (10’9”) like DeAngelo, but it’s not a requisite.


1st String 50% 8 8 16

Two-Deep 51% 18 17 35

On Roster 47% 40 46 86

Made Camp 46% 72 83 155




Broad Jump - RB (Avg 117/9'9")Total

Vertical Jump – RB

25

Running back prospects don’t need to tap 40 inches, they just need to come in over 34.90 and it’s a good sign.


1st String 50% 8 8 16

Two-Deep 51% 18 17 35

On Roster 47% 40 46 86

Made Camp 52% 80 75 155




Vertical Jump - RB (Avg 34.90)Total

Three-Cone – RB

It’s one of the four vital attribute tests for running back. No need to come in at 6.51 like Jackie Battle, just come in under 7.13. Notables: Marion Barber 7.12, Ronnie Brown 7.12, Ryan Grant 7.10, Marshawn 7.05, Gore 6.95, Forte 6.84, Slaton 6.74, and DeAngelo 6.57.


1st String 50% 8 8 16

Two-Deep 57% 20 15 35

On Roster 56% 48 38 86

Made Camp 54% 84 71 155




Three-Cone - RB (Avg 7.13)Total

Short Shuttle – RB

50% of starter’s EPA’g is good enough to tie for 2nd, but not overly compelling.


1st String 50% 8 8 16

Two-Deep 60% 21 14 35

On Roster 50% 43 43 86

Made Camp 52% 81 74 155




Correlation

ShortShuttle - RB (Avg 4.32)

Bench Press – RB

26

At any other position, 69% of 2008 starters exceeding peer average in this attribute test would represent a very compelling figure. It would be a clear indicator of future success.


1st String 38% 6 10 16

Two-Deep 43% 15 20 35

On Roster 35% 30 56 86

Made Camp 35% 55 100 155




Bench - RBs (Avg 18.67)Total

At running back, a 69% bench ASC figure comes in 5th place behind the top 4. It’s important at RB, but not nearly as critical as the top-4.

Long Shuttle – RB 25% is far from compelling.


1st String 25% 4 12 16

Two-Deep 23% 8 27 35

On Roster 13% 11 75 86

Made Camp 14% 22 133 155




Long Shuttle - RB (Avg 11.73)Total

27

TE - EPA

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%EPA7

EPA6

EPA5

EPA4

EPA3

EPA2

EPA1


Tight Ends Exceeded Peer Average (EPA) – Tight Ends

The optimal EPA number of Tight Ends is 5. Of the 138 tight end prospects, 17 exceeded peer average five times. Four of the 17 (24%) started in 2008. Of the EPA5’s, 41% were on two-deeps, 59% were on rosters, and 10% attended a camp.

TEProspect


Never Signed

7 3 0% 67% 100% 100% 0%6 5 40% 40% 60% 100% 0%5 17 24% 41% 59% 100% 0%4 22 9% 23% 73% 95% 5%3 29 17% 34% 59% 86% 14%2 24 8% 13% 29% 75% 25%1 16 13% 19% 25% 75% 25%0 22 0% 0% 0% 50% 50%

All 138 12% 23% 43% 81% 19% There’s no real cohesive pattern in terms of EPA for tight ends. The only EPA count any prospect (or team) really wants to avoid is EPA0. Exceed peer average zero times and not only will you not be starting, but you won’t be on a two-deep or a roster.

The adjacent radar chart corresponds directly to the above table. Tight Ends with an EPA of 3 to 6 have the highest degree of success. 13 of the 17 starting tight ends had an EPA between 3 and 6. Five prospects came into the league between 2005 and 2008 with an EPA between 4 and 6 and started in the 2008 season: Kevin Boss, Jeff King, Owen Daniels, Zach Miller, and Vernon Davis.

Attribute Success Correlation (ASC) – Tight Ends

Not only is there but one attribute which stands out for Offensive Tackles, but it is the only one which is even over 50%. While it is important that OTs exceed peer average in five of the six OT attributes (long shuttle excluded), the only one that appears to be preferred is the 40-yard dash at 66%.

28

40-Yard Dash – TE

Two-thirds of the 17 starting tight ends exceed peer average in the 40 and ran a 4.79 or better. It is the #1 attribute for Tight Ends.


1st String 76% 13 4 17

Two-Deep 82% 27 6 33

On Roster 74% 46 16 62

Made Camp 58% 66 48 114


All TE Prospects 51% 72 68 140


40-yd Dash - TE (Avg 4.80)Total

Notables: Heath Miller 4.79, Zach Miller and Anthony Fasano 4.72, Owen Daniels 4.65, Leonard Pope 4.62, and Vernon Davis 4.38.

Broad Jump - TE

The broad jump is tied for #2 with the vert at 59%.


1st String 59% 10 7 17

Two-Deep 58% 19 14 33

On Roster 62% 37 23 60

Made Camp 52% 58 54 112




Broad Jump - TE (Avg 113/9'5")Total

Notables: Owen Daniels 114, Zach Miller 115, Leonard Pope 118, Kevin Boss 120, and Vernon Davis 128.

Vertical Jump – TE

Tied with the broad jump for #2 at 59%.


1st String 59% 10 7 17

Two-Deep 58% 19 14 33

On Roster 50% 30 30 60

Made Camp 43% 48 64 112




Vertical Jump - TE (Avg 33.42)Total

29

Notables: Jeff King 34.0, Kevin Boss 35.0, John Carlson 35.5, Marcedes Lewis 37.0, and Vernon Davis 42.0.

Bench Press – TE

Over average, but not compelling at 53%.


1st String 53% 9 8 17

Two-Deep 48% 16 17 33

On Roster 47% 28 32 60

Made Camp 39% 44 68 112




Bench - TEs (Avg 20.46)Total

Notables: Marcedes Lewis 22, Jeff King 24, Alex Smith 28, and Vernon Davis 33.

Short Shuttle – TE

47% means the short shuttle doesn’t stand on its own.


1st String 47% 8 9 17

Two-Deep 55% 18 15 33

On Roster 55% 33 27 60

Made Camp 47% 53 59 112




Correlation

ShortShuttle - TE (Avg 4.38)

Notables: Zach Miller 4.36, John Carlson 4.28, Vernon Davis 4.17, Owen Daniels 4.10, and Jeff King 4.09.

Three-Cone – TE

47% - tied for 5th with short shuttle.


1st String 47% 8 9 17

Two-Deep 45% 15 18 33

On Roster 53% 32 28 60

Made Camp 46% 52 60 112




Three-Cone - TE (Avg 7.19)Total

30

Notables: Zach Miller 7.01, Vernon Davis 7.00, Jeff King 6.99, Kevin Boss 6.96, Anthony Fasano 6.94, and Owen Daniels 6.87.

Long Shuttle – TE The long shuttle was only run by 16% of the tight ends (22).


1st String 18% 3 14 17

Two-Deep 21% 7 26 33

On Roster 27% 16 44 60

Made Camp 20% 22 90 112




Long Shuttle - TE (Avg 11.97)Total

31

FB - EPA

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%EPA7

EPA6

EPA5

EPA4

EPA3

EPA2

EPA1


Fullbacks Exceeded Peer Average (EPA) – Fullbacks

Like Tight End, no EPA is overly compelling, but 5 sticks out the most. Only 68 fullbacks tested out between 2005 and 2008. Of those 68, 8 exceeded peer average five times. Of the EPA5’s, 25% (2) were starting in 2008, 50% were on two-deeps, 63% on rosters, and 100% attended a camp.

FBProspect


Never Signed

7 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%6 2 0% 0% 0% 100% 0%5 8 25% 50% 63% 100% 0%4 11 18% 36% 45% 82% 18%3 13 15% 38% 38% 92% 8%2 13 23% 31% 38% 92% 8%1 10 0% 0% 0% 80% 20%0 11 18% 27% 27% 82% 18%

All 68 16% 29% 34% 88% 12% There is no real discernible EPA pattern for fullbacks other than that no fullbacks over EPA5 (6 or 7) were on rosters in 2008. One reason that fullbacks may be so elusive is because so many of them are converted after they get into the league – Oliver Hoyte, Boomer Grigsby, Spencer Larsen, Daniel Coats, Michael Robinson, etc.

The adjacent radar chart corresponds directly to the above table. Fullbacks with an EPA of 2 to 5 have the highest degree of success. 9 of the 11 starting fullbacks had an EPA between 2 and 5. Six prospects came into the league between 2005 and 2008 with an EPA between 3 and 5 and started in the 2008 season: Jerome Felton, Peyton Hillis, Brian Leonard, Jacob Hester, Madison Hedgecock, Le’Ron McClain, and Naufahu Tahi. Michael Robinson and Daniel Coats were fullback converts who also EPA’d in the 3-5 range.

32

Attribute Success Correlation (ASC) – Fullbacks

Only two attributes rise above 50% at the fullback position – Three-Cone (64%) and Broad Jump (55%). In order, the other top attributes are: Short (36%), Bench (36%), Vert (36%), 40 (27%), and Long (18%). Three-Cone – FB

At 64%, the three-cone drill is the #1 attribute for fullbacks.


1st String 64% 7 4 11

Two-Deep 60% 12 8 20

On Roster 57% 13 10 23

Made Camp 45% 27 33 60


All FB Prospects 41% 28 40 68


Three-Cone - FB (Avg 7.27)Total

Notables: Naufahu Tahi 7.27, Jerome Felton 7.17, Le’Ron McClain 7.08, Brian Leonard 6.88, and Jacob Hester 6.85.

Broad Jump - FB

The broad jump is the only other attribute over 50% - it’s at 55%.


1st String 55% 6 5 11

Two-Deep 45% 9 11 20

On Roster 48% 11 12 23

Made Camp 40% 24 36 60




Broad Jump - FB (Avg 112/9'4")Total

Notables: Jerome Felton and Le’Ron McClain 115, and Brian Leonard 122.

Short Shuttle – FB

36% - one piece, not important by itself.

33


1st String 36% 4 7 11

Two-Deep 55% 11 9 20

On Roster 57% 13 10 23

Made Camp 47% 28 32 60




Correlation

ShortShuttle - FB (Avg 4.38)

Notables: Jerome Felton 4.33, Madison Hedgecock 4.26, Jacob Hester 4.24, and Peyton Hillis 4.24.

Bench Press – FB

36% - just a piece of the puzzle.


1st String 36% 4 7 11

Two-Deep 35% 7 13 20

On Roster 39% 9 14 23

Made Camp 37% 22 38 60




Bench - FB (Avg 23.94)Total

Notables: Peyton Hillis 26, Madison Hedgecock 29, and Jerome Felton 30.

Vertical Jump – FB

36% - not compelling.


1st String 36% 4 7 11

Two-Deep 35% 7 13 20

On Roster 35% 8 15 23

Made Camp 37% 22 38 60




Vertical Jump - FB (Avg 32.93)Total

Notables: Naufahu Tahi 33.5, Peyton Hillis 35.0, and Jerome Felton 36.0.

40-Yard Dash – FB

34

At 27%, the 40 is nowhere near as important at fullback than at other positions. 38% of the fullbacks who exceeded peer average at the 40 were never even signed.


1st String 27% 3 8 11

Two-Deep 45% 9 11 20

On Roster 52% 12 11 23

Made Camp 42% 25 35 60




40-yd Dash - FB (Avg 4.74)Total

Notables: Jacob Hester 4.60 and Peyton Hillis 4.58.

Long Shuttle – FB Like most positions, less than 20% (12%) even ran the long shuttle.


1st String 18% 2 9 11

Two-Deep 20% 4 16 20

On Roster 17% 4 19 23

Made Camp 13% 8 52 60




Long Shuttle - FB (Avg 12.05)Total

35

QB - EPA

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%EPA7

EPA6

EPA5

EPA4

EPA3

EPA2

EPA1


Quarterbacks Exceeded Peer Average (EPA) – Quarterbacks

Attribute testing is virtually useless and counterintuitive for Quarterbacks. It remains the toughest and most elusive position at which to predict success. The EPA and ASC models get us no closer to understanding what makes college quarterbacks successful in the NFL. For the sake of being thorough and full disclosure, the Quarterback tables are below.

QBProspect


Never Signed

7 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%6 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%5 2 0% 0% 0% 100% 0%4 14 7% 21% 36% 71% 29%3 19 11% 11% 26% 89% 11%2 31 6% 13% 26% 90% 10%1 21 10% 24% 43% 81% 19%0 50 10% 26% 44% 84% 16%

All 137 9% 20% 36% 85% 15% When the two highest success rates come with the 71 Quarterbacks who Exceeded Peer Average between one and zero times, it’s clear that EPA is not helpful with Quarterbacks. The adjacent radar chart corresponds directly to the above table. It’s the only EPA chart we see in the study where the prospects with EPA0 and EPA1 are some of the most successful. Seven prospects came into the league between 2005 and 2008 with an EPA between 0 and 1 and started in 2008: Aaron Rodgers, Tyler Thigpen, Derek Anderson, JaMarcus Russell, Trent Edwards, Kyle Orton, and Matt Ryan. I wouldn’t believe a soul who told me that JaMarcus Russell can’t bench more than 16 reps (the QB average is 16.77) or that Tyler Thigpen can’t run better than a 4.81 40 (also the QB avg). The only conclusion to make here is that so many of the Quarterback prospects choose to run all their drills in private workouts where the attribute test results aren’t made public. Even so, if every QB performed every drill, we’d likely be no closer to understanding what makes a college QB translate successfully to the NFL.

36

Attribute Success Correlation (ASC) – Quarterbacks

There isn’t one single QB attribute in which 50% or more of the starters exceeded peer average in that particular attribute. In order, the QB attributes are: Short Shuttle (38%), Three-Cone (31%), Vert (31%), Broad (23%), Bench (8%), 40 (0%), and Long Shuttle (0%). It’s not that Quarterbacks don’t have to be athletic, it’s simply that there’s no correlation between attribute testing (Wonderlic included, according to Berri and Simmons) and NFL success. Short Shuttle – QB

At 38%, it’s #1, but altogether apparently irrelevant.


1st String 38% 5 8 13

Two-Deep 33% 9 18 27

On Roster 37% 18 31 49

Made Camp 40% 46 70 116


All QB Prospects 38% 52 85 137


Correlation

ShortShuttle - QB (Avg 4.34)

Notables: Jason Campbell 4.32, Joe Flacco 4.27, and Matt Cassel 4.08. Three-Cone – QB

Two-thirds of the starting QBs did NOT exceed peer average in the three-cone drill.


1st String 31% 4 9 13

Two-Deep 33% 9 18 27

On Roster 35% 17 32 49

Made Camp 42% 49 67 116




Three-Cone - QB (Avg 7.13)Total

Notables: Tyler Thigpen 7.11, Jay Cutler 7.10, and Joe Flacco 6.82. Vertical Jump – QB

One-third of the starters exceeded peer average.

37


1st String 31% 4 9 13

Two-Deep 22% 6 21 27

On Roster 22% 11 38 49

Made Camp 31% 36 80 116




Vertical Jump - QB (Avg 31.87)Total

Notables: Matt Cassel 34.0, Aaron Rodgers 34.5, and Jason Campbell 38.0.

Broad Jump - QB

23% and almost irrelevant.


1st String 23% 3 10 13

Two-Deep 22% 6 21 27

On Roster 24% 12 37 49

Made Camp 29% 34 82 116




Broad Jump - QB (Avg 111/9'3")Total

Notables: Matt Cassel 115 and Jason Campbell 116.

Bench Press – QB

8% and almost completely off the map.


1st String 8% 1 12 13

Two-Deep 4% 1 26 27


Made Camp 5% 6 110 116




Bench - QBs (Avg 16.77)Total

Notables: Jay Cutler 23.

40-Yard Dash – QB

Only one of the 137 Quarterback prospects ran a recorded 40 between 2005 and 2008 – Matt Bohnet of Eastern Michigan. He was cut.

38


1st String 0% 0 13 13

Two-Deep 0% 0 27 27


Made Camp 1% 1 115 116




40-yd Dash - QB (Avg 4.81)Total

Notables: Matt Bohnet 4.44.

Long Shuttle – QB Only two QBs ran the long shuttle between 2005 and 2008.


1st String 0% 0 13 13

Two-Deep 0% 0 27 27


Made Camp 2% 2 114 116




Long Shuttle - QB (Avg 11.65)Total

Notables: Darian Durant 11.48 and James Kilian 11.24.

39

CB - EPA

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%EPA7

EPA6

EPA5

EPA4

EPA3

EPA2

EPA1


DEFENSE Cornerback Exceeded Peer Average (EPA) - CBs

The optimal EPA count for a cornerback is six. An astonishing 46% of EPA6 corners were starters in 2008 and 77% were on two-deeps.

CBProspect


Never Signed

7 2 0% 50% 100% 100% 0%6 13 46% 77% 92% 100% 0%5 29 24% 66% 69% 97% 3%4 44 23% 43% 61% 95% 5%3 43 2% 19% 35% 79% 21%2 40 10% 18% 40% 83% 18%1 39 3% 10% 23% 77% 23%0 27 0% 11% 26% 59% 41%

All 237 12% 30% 46% 84% 16% One would think if a prospect exceeds peer average in every single attribute that it would be a good sign. Antwaun Molden and Karl Paymah both exceeded peer average in all seven – Paymah’s been a career nickelback and while Molden may have a bright future, he was far from having the rookie season that McKelvin, Rodgers-Cromartie, Flowers, or Carr had in 2008.

The adjacent radar chart corresponds directly to the above table. Corners with an EPA of 5 to 6 have the highest degree of success. Come in lower than EPA4 and the odds for success go down significantly. Six prospects between 2005 and 2008 came into the league with an EPA of 6 and started in the 2008 season: Carlos Rogers, Ellis Hobbs, Darrelle Revis, Leon Hall, Antrel Rolle and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Chris Houston, Fabian Washington, Domonique Foxworth, Brandon McDonald, Brandon Carr, and Marlin Jackson all were EPA5’s and started in 2008.

Attribute Success Correlation (ASC) - CBs

The cornerback ASC numbers are fairly predictable and intuitive. While it’s not crucial to run a 4.28 40, the 40-yd dash is the #1 most important attribute

40

for cornerbacks. After the 40, the top-4 are rounded out by the 3-cone, short shuttle, and broad jump. 237 cornerbacks performed tests which allow us to arrive a these numbers. Of the 237 who tested between 2005 and 2008, 29 were starting corners in 2008. These are their attribute details: 40-Yard Dash – CB

83% of starting corners exceeded their peer average in the 40 (<4.49); 78% of the guys on two-deeps did as well. The 40 is the #1 attribute for corners.


1st String 83% 24 5 29

Two-Deep 78% 56 16 72

On Roster 70% 76 33 109

Made Camp 57% 112 86 198


All CB Prospects 51% 120 117 237


40-yd Dash - CB (Avg 4.49)Total

Notable corner 40 times: Brandon McDonald 4.47, Marlin Jackson 4.46, Brandon Carr and Carlos Rogers 4.44, Darrelle Revis and Leon Hall 4.39, Ellis Hobbs 4.38, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie 4.33, and Chris Houston 4.32.

Three-Cone – CB

With three out of four starting corners exceeding peer average in the three-cone (76%), it’s virtually a requisite to becoming a good corner.


1st String 76% 22 7 29

Two-Deep 67% 48 24 72

On Roster 60% 65 44 109

Made Camp 48% 95 103 198




Three-Cone - CB (Avg 6.98)Total

Notables: Marlin Jackson 6.96, Chris Houston 6.94, Brandon McDonald 6.91, Brandon Carr 6.80, Ellis Hobbs 6.70, Darrelle Revis 6.56, and Leon Hall 6.50.

Short Shuttle – CB

Like the 3-cone, quick re-direction and movement in tight quarters are vital for a corner. 72% of starters exceeded peer average.

41


1st String 72% 21 8 29

Two-Deep 67% 48 24 72

On Roster 55% 60 49 109

Made Camp 49% 98 100 198




Correlation

ShortShuttle - CB (Avg 4.21)

Notables: Rodgers-Cromartie 4.14, Chris Houston 4.12, Ellis Hobbs 4.08, Marlin Jackson 4.04, and Carlos Rogers 3.84. Rogers’ 3.84 is tied with Marquice Cole for the best short shuttle time since the 2005 class came out.

Broad Jump - CB

72% of the starting corners exceeded peer average in the broad jump – 10’2” or more.


1st String 72% 21 8 29

Two-Deep 65% 47 25 72

On Roster 58% 63 46 109

Made Camp 47% 94 104 198




Broad Jump - CB (Avg 122/10'2")Total

Notables: Chris Houston 122, Darrelle Revis 125, Fabian Washington 129, and Ellis Hobbs 133.

Vertical Jump – CB

Anecdotally, I thought the vertical jump would be much more important for corners. However, only 55% of the starting corners (16 of 29) actually exceeded peer average in the vert.


1st String 55% 16 13 29

Two-Deep 60% 43 29 72

On Roster 54% 59 50 109

Made Camp 46% 92 106 198




Vertical Jump - CB (Avg 36.82)Total

42

Notables: Leon Hall 37.5, Darrelle Revis 38.0, Carlos Rogers 40.5, and Ellis Hobbs 42.0. The best vert since 2005 has been Arizona State’s Chris McKenzie at 45.0. Last seen in Houston, he’s not in the league now. It’s important that corners exceed their peer average, but they don’t need to jump through the roof.

Bench Press – CB

48% makes the bench a “sum of the parts” type of attribute and not one that is vital in and of itself.


1st String 48% 14 15 29

Two-Deep 42% 30 42 72

On Roster 39% 43 66 109

Made Camp 37% 73 125 198




Bench - CBs (Avg 14.18)Total

Notables: Carlos Rogers and Leon Hall 15, Brandon McDonald 17, Fabian Washington 18, and Chris Houston 27.

Long Shuttle – CB Absolutely not vital. A nice to have, not a must.


1st String 17% 5 24 29

Two-Deep 18% 13 59 72

On Roster 18% 20 89 109

Made Camp 17% 34 164 198




Long Shuttle - CB (Avg 11.47)Total

Notables: DRC 11.06 and Ellis Hobbs 10.98.

43

DT - EPA

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%EPA7

EPA6

EPA5

EPA4

EPA3

EPA2

EPA1


Defensive Tackle Exceeded Peer Average (EPA) - DTs

The magic EPA number for DTs is 6. There have only been five who have exceeded peer average in 6 categories since 2005 (out of 155 who have tested), but all five of those DTs were starters in 2008. When all other EPA counts fall in the 11%-14% range, 100% is pretty compelling.

DTProspect


Never Signed

7 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%6 5 100% 100% 100% 100% 0%5 26 12% 38% 62% 96% 4%4 19 11% 21% 37% 95% 5%3 25 12% 48% 56% 80% 20%2 33 12% 33% 45% 82% 18%1 28 14% 32% 54% 82% 18%0 19 11% 11% 11% 37% 63%

All 155 15% 34% 48% 81% 19% Coming in between EPA3 and EPA5 is respectable considering the two-deep and roster percentages. EPA3 has 48% 2-dp and 56% rostered. EPA5 has 38% 2-dp and 62% rostered. However, the starter percentages are nothing to write home about. 70 DTs registered an EPA between 3 and 5 from 2005 to 2008. Out of those 70 EPA3-5, only 8 started in 2008. 8 out of 70 or 5 out of 5? The sample size of 5 is small, but still quite compelling.

The adjacent radar chart corresponds directly to the above table. Defensive Tackles with an EPA of 3 to 6 have the highest degree of success. Come in lower than EPA3 and the odds for success go down significantly. Five prospects between 2005 and 2008 came into the league with an EPA of 6 and started in the 2008 season: Brodrick Bunkley, Barry Cofield, Jovan Haye, Kedric Golston, and Adam Carriker. Mike Patterson, Amobi Okoye, and Jay Ratliff all exceeded peer average five times (EPA5), Travis Johnson and Turk McBride were EPA4s, and Kyle Williams, Keyunta Dawson, and Marcus Harrison (CHI) were all EPA3s.

44

Attribute Success Correlation (ASC) - DTs

The Defensive Tackle attribute correlations are not what most people would expect. Brute strength and quickness would seem to be hallmarks of the DT position, but based on how starters tested out in each of these attributes, this is the attribute order of importance for DTs: 3-cone, 40, Short Shuttle, Broad Jump, Vert, and then Bench. With no long shuttle result having been recorded by a DT since 2005, that leaves six attributes. With EPA6’s starting 100% of the time, needing to exceed peer average in every DT attribute is a must. It’s clear that thorough athleticism is required for these big guys to succeed in the league these days. Maybe the DT position is evolving into one where quickness is more highly valued than strength. Three-Cone – DT

With nearly two-thirds of the starting tackles exceeding peer average in the three-cone drill, tight quarters quickness is the #1 most critical attribute for defensive tackles.


1st String 65% 15 8 23

Two-Deep 55% 29 24 53

On Roster 51% 38 36 74

Made Camp 47% 59 66 125


All DT Prospects 44% 68 87 155


Three-Cone - DT (Avg 7.67)Total

Notables: Mike Patterson 7.62, Kedric Golston 7.61, Amobi Okoye 7.46, Jovan Haye 7.40, Jay Ratliff 7.19, and Adam Carriker 7.06. Carriker’s 7.06 is the fastest three-cone any DT has run between 2005 and 2008.

40-Yard Dash – DT

Who would intuitively think that the 40-yard dash is important at a position that might average 10 yards per play? Whatever the gut may say, reality says that 61% of starting DTs exceeded peer average in the 40-yard dash and ran the 40 in less than 5.11.


1st String 61% 14 9 23

Two-Deep 60% 32 21 53

On Roster 57% 42 32 74

Made Camp 54% 68 57 125




40-yd Dash - DT (Avg 5.11)Total

45

Notables: Sedrick Ellis 5.06, Kyle Williams 4.99, Jonathan Babineaux 4.87, Jovan Haye 4.74, and Keyunta Dawson 4.72.

Short Shuttle – DT

At 57%, the short shuttle doesn’t stand out, but still more than half of the starting DTs exceeded peer average.


1st String 57% 13 10 23

Two-Deep 53% 28 25 53

On Roster 49% 36 38 74

Made Camp 49% 61 64 125




Correlation

ShortShuttle - DT (Avg 4.61)

Notables: Jay Ratliff 4.52, Kedric Golston 4.45, Jovan Haye 4.38, Brodrick Bunkley 4.16, and Turk McBride 4.12. McBride’s 4.12 is the fastest short shuttle run by a DT between 2005 and 2008.

Broad Jump - DT

At only 52%, the broad jump is an attribute which matters when viewed in conjunction with the other five key DT attributes, but not alone.


1st String 52% 12 11 23

Two-Deep 55% 29 24 53

On Roster 54% 40 34 74

Made Camp 50% 62 63 125




Broad Jump - DT (Avg 106/8'10")Total

Vertical Jump – DT

Not terribly important all by itself at 43%.

46


1st String 43% 10 13 23

Two-Deep 45% 24 29 53

On Roster 49% 36 38 74

Made Camp 50% 63 62 125




Vertical Jump - DT (Avg 30.10)Total

Bench Press – DT

With the average DT size being 6’2”/305, size certainly is no less valued than 10 years ago, but maybe bench strength is not as critical as it once was. Only 43% of starting DTs exceeded peer average on the bench.


1st String 43% 10 13 23

Two-Deep 40% 21 32 53

On Roster 45% 33 41 74

Made Camp 41% 51 74 125




Bench - DTs (Avg 26.43)Total

However, as we know, exceeding peer average in every single attribute is vital to future success at the DT position. Considering that Brodrick Bunkley’s 44 reps are the most for any DT between 2005 and 2008 and Tank Tyler’s 42 are the 2nd most (and both started in 2008), it’s not a stretch to say that strength is a key to success. It’s just that the bench is not something the majority of starters have excelled at in recent years.

Long Shuttle – DT

Not one of the 155 DTs who tested between 2005 and 2008 ran the long shuttle.


1st String 0% 0 23 23

Two-Deep 0% 0 53 53


Made Camp 0% 0 125 125




Long Shuttle - DT (Avg n/a)Total

47

DE - EPA

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%EPA7

EPA6

EPA5

EPA4

EPA3

EPA2

EPA1


Defensive End Exceeded Peer Average (EPA) - DEs

The optimal EPA number for DEs is 6. None of the defensive end numbers are terribly convincing, but based on the below table, it’s easy to see that DEs with an EPA between 4 and 6 are going to have the highest odds for success.

DEProspect


Never Signed

7 1 0% 0% 0% 100% 0%6 11 27% 45% 64% 100% 0%5 19 16% 37% 58% 89% 11%4 37 19% 41% 54% 95% 5%3 25 8% 28% 32% 92% 8%2 39 15% 28% 41% 77% 23%1 33 3% 21% 39% 70% 30%0 22 5% 9% 18% 55% 45%

All 187 12% 29% 42% 81% 19% Combined, 13 out of 23 starters tested out with an EPA between 4 and 6 – that’s 56%.

The adjacent radar chart corresponds directly to the above table. Defensive Ends with an EPA of 4 to 6 have the highest degree of success. Come in lower than EPA4 and the odds for success go down significantly. Three prospects between 2005 and 2008 came into the league with an EPA of 6 and started in the 2008 season: Mario Williams, Justin Tuck, and Mark Anderson. Gaines Adams, Trent Cole, and Chris Long all exceeded peer average five times (EPA5). Some of the more notable EPA4’s were Tamba Hali, Ray Edwards, Luis Castillo, and Mike Montgomery.

Attribute Success Correlation (ASC) - DEs

One attribute really sticks out at 65% of starters exceeding the peer average while four other attributes all come in at 57%. In order, the DE top attributes are: 40 (65%), Broad (57%), Vert (57%), Short Shuttle (57%), 3-Cone (57%), Bench (43%), and Long Shuttle (13%). 40-Yard Dash – DE

48

Two-thirds of the 23 starting defensive ends exceeded peer average when they performed their attribute tests. Considering that the number is consistent from 1st String to Two-Deep, to On Roster, and Made Camp, it’s clear that 40 is the #1 attribute for defensive ends who are going to succeed in the league.


1st String 65% 15 8 23

Two-Deep 69% 37 17 54

On Roster 68% 54 25 79

Made Camp 63% 96 56 152


All DE Prospects 58% 108 79 187


40-yd Dash - DE (Avg 4.90)Total

Notables: Tamba Hali 4.87, Elvis Dumervil and Chris Long 4.75, Justin Tuck 4.71, Mario Williams 4.66, and Gaines Adams 4.64.

Broad Jump - DE

The broad jump is tied with the vert, short shuttle, and 3-cone as the 2nd most important attribute for DEs – all came in at 57%.


1st String 57% 13 10 23

Two-Deep 54% 29 25 54

On Roster 53% 42 37 79

Made Camp 47% 71 81 152




Broad Jump - DE (Avg 113/9'5")Total

Notables: Kendall Langford 113, Justin Tuck and Mario Williams 118, Mathis Kiwanuka 120, Chris Long and Trent Cole 124, and Mark Anderson 127. Anderson’s 127 is the best for DEs from 2005 to 2008.

Vertical Jump – DE

Tied for #2. Vital for batting down passes at the line, not so much for defending the fade in the corner of the end zone.

49


1st String 57% 13 10 23

Two-Deep 54% 29 25 54

On Roster 51% 40 39 79

Made Camp 47% 72 80 152




Vertical Jump - DE (Avg 32.72)Total

Notables: Jay Richardson 33.0, Chris Long 34.0, Luis Castillo 34.5, Trent Cole 37.0, Justin Tuck 38.5, Mario Williams 40.5, and Mark Anderson 42.0. Anderson’s 42.0 is the best vert for a defensive end between 2005 and 2008.

Short Shuttle – DE

Tied for #2 with broad, vert, and three-cone at 57%.


1st String 57% 13 10 23

Two-Deep 50% 27 27 54

On Roster 46% 36 43 79

Made Camp 46% 70 82 152




Correlation

ShortShuttle - DE (Avg 4.46)

Notables: Marcus Spears 4.44, Gaines Adams and Mario Williams 4.36, Mike Montgomery 4.33, Tamba Hali 4.31, Justin Tuck 4.29, Mark Anderson 4.22, and Chris Long 4.21.

Three-Cone – DE

Tied for the #2 DE attribute at 57%.


1st String 57% 13 10 23

Two-Deep 46% 25 29 54

On Roster 46% 36 43 79

Made Camp 47% 72 80 152




Three-Cone - DE (Avg 7.37)Total

Notables: Justin Tuck 7.31, Tamba Hali 7.28, Jay Richardson 7.26, Marcus Spears 7.21, Mario Williams 7.19, Trent Cole 7.03, Chris Long 7.02, Mark Anderson 6.95, and Jamaal Anderson 6.88.

50

Bench Press – DE

Bench prowess is apparently not as prevalent on the defensive line as many people might think. Between 2005 and 2008, 342 defensive linemen performed attribute tests. 46 have gone on to start (23 DEs and 23 DTs). For both DTs and DEs, 43% of the starters exceeded peer average in the bench. It’s important, but only as a piece of the pie – not in and of itself.


1st String 43% 10 13 23

Two-Deep 43% 23 31 54

On Roster 42% 33 46 79

Made Camp 40% 61 91 152




Bench - DEs (Avg 23.74)Total

Notables: Justin Tuck and Kendall Langford 24, Mike Montgomery 26, Elvis Dumervil and Ray Edwards 30, Luis Castillo 32, and Mario Williams 35.

Long Shuttle – DE

Only 8 of the 187 defensive end prospects between 2005 and 2008 actually tested out in the long shuttle. Oddly enough, three of those eight were starters in 2008 and another two were 2nd stringers.


1st String 13% 3 20 23

Two-Deep 9% 5 49 54


Made Camp 5% 8 144 152




Long Shuttle - DE (Avg 11.98)Total

51

LB - EPA

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%EPA7

EPA6

EPA5

EPA4

EPA3

EPA2

EPA1


Linebacker Exceeded Peer Average (EPA) - LBs

The optimal EPA number for LBs is 6. The starter percentage is similar to all EPAs between 3 and 7, but the two-deep (67%) and rostered (73%) percentages put EPA6 at #1 for linebackers.

LBProspect


Never Signed

7 4 25% 50% 100% 100% 0%6 15 27% 67% 73% 100% 0%5 27 22% 41% 56% 93% 7%4 44 23% 41% 48% 84% 16%3 66 21% 45% 52% 85% 15%2 73 5% 27% 34% 78% 22%1 59 5% 24% 37% 81% 19%0 42 7% 14% 19% 60% 40%

Coming in between EPA3 and EPA7 is respectable. 156 linebacker prospects exceeded peer average between 3 and 7 times. Of those 156, 35 started in 2008 (22.4%). 174 linebacker prospects EPA’d 2 or less times. Of those 174, only 10 started in 2008 (5.7%). It’s key that linebackers come in with physical prowess in at least three attributes, but the distinction between any of the 156 between EPA3 and EPA7 is marginal. It’s where they fit the best.

The adjacent radar chart corresponds directly to the above table. Linebackers with an EPA of 3 to 7 have the highest degree of success. As stated above, come in lower than EPA3 and the odds for success go down dramatically. Four prospects between 2005 and 2008 came into the league with an EPA of 6 and started in the 2008 season: A.J. Hawk, Demarcus Ware, Chris Gocong, and Manny Lawson. Posluszny, Merriman, Thomas Davis, Pat Thomas, and Bryan Kehl all exceeded peer average five times (EPA5). Willis, Wimbley, Beason, Sims, L.Hill, K.Morrison, D.Johnson, C.Crowder, Stewart Bradley, and Keith Rivers all exceeded peer average four times. EPA3s: Howard, Ruud, Boley, McIntosh, D.Harris, Ellison, Tatupu, Poppinga, Greenway, Session, R.Brown, Woodley, Mayo, and Lofton. Of note, Justin Durant was the only linebacker out of 330 (’05-’08) who exceeded peer average in ALL seven attributes. He contributed sporadically in 2007 and ascended to a starting role in 2008 for Jacksonville.

52

Attribute Success Correlation (ASC) - LBs

The 40 gets beat up a lot for getting too much attention. If what we’ve seen so far in the study is any indication, the 40 might not get enough attention. By itself, it’s not an indicator of future success, but if a prospect is above average in multiple attributes and has a pretty good 40, his odds for success increase significantly. Linebacker is no different. The 40 is the #1 indicator for future success as 67% of the 2008 starters exceeded peer average in the 40. In order, the other top LB attributes are: Short Shuttle (58%), Bench (51%), Vert (51%), Broad (49%), 3-cone (47%), and Long Shuttle (20%). 40-Yard Dash – LB

With Patrick Willis running a 4.37 and Thomas Howard a 4.42 and both starting right off the bat, it’s hard to ignore the value that speed added to each of their games. Having said that, one-third of the 2008 starting linebackers performed under peer average in the 40. It’s important, but only as a piece of the puzzle – not a lone determinant.


1st String 67% 30 15 45

Two-Deep 62% 69 42 111

On Roster 60% 84 56 140

Made Camp 51% 135 132 267


All LB Prospects 45% 147 183 330


40-yd Dash - LB (Avg 4.70)Total

Notables: Curtis Lofton 4.68, Shawne Merriman 4.64, Jon Beason 4.62, David Harris 4.59, Paul Posluszny 4.58, Keith Rivers 4.56, Jerod Mayo 4.54, Derrick Johnson 4.52, A.J. Hawk 4.46, Thomas Howard 4.42, and Patrick Willis 4.37.

Short Shuttle – LB

At 58%, the short shuttle is #2 linebacker attribute.


1st String 58% 26 19 45

Two-Deep 50% 56 55 111

On Roster 51% 72 68 140

Made Camp 45% 119 148 267




Correlation

ShortShuttle - LB (Avg 4.333)

53

Notables: Jon Beason 4.33, David Harris and Kirk Morrison 4.29, Channing Crowder 4.27, Shawne Merriman 4.21, Paul Posluszny 4.20, Michael Boley 4.12, Justin Durant 4.09, Chris Gocong 4.08, Demarcus Ware 4.07, A.J. Hawk 3.96, and Derrick Johnson 3.93.

Bench Press – LB

At 51%, the Bench is tied for #3 for linebackers.


1st String 51% 23 22 45

Two-Deep 44% 49 62 111

On Roster 46% 65 75 140

Made Camp 40% 107 160 267




Bench - LBs (Avg 22.15)Total

Notables: Lofa Tatupu and David Harris 23, Kirk Morrison and Shawne Merriman 25, Demarcus Ware 27, Stewart Bradley 28, LaMarr Woodley 29, and Chris Gocong 36.

Vertical Jump – LB

Tied for #3 at 51%.


1st String 51% 23 22 45

Two-Deep 42% 47 64 111

On Roster 39% 55 85 140

Made Camp 38% 101 166 267




Vertical Jump - LB (Avg 34.73)Total

Notables: Lofa Tatupu 35.0, Justin Durant and Curtis Lofton 36.0, Ware and Wimbley 38.5, Patrick Willis 39.0, Merriman and Hawk 40.0, Jerod Mayo 40.5, Gocong and Rivers 42.0, and Roger McIntosh 42.5.

Broad Jump - LB

At only 49%, it’s a piece of the pie and doesn’t stand alone.

54


1st String 49% 22 23 45

Two-Deep 49% 54 57 111

On Roster 46% 64 76 140

Made Camp 41% 110 157 267




Broad Jump - LB (Avg 116/9'8")Total

Three-Cone – LB

47% not compelling by itself.


1st String 47% 21 24 45

Two-Deep 46% 51 60 111

On Roster 46% 65 75 140

Made Camp 43% 115 152 267




Three-Cone - LB (Avg 7.18)Total

Long Shuttle – LB

Roughly 11% of the 330 linebacker prospects have run the long shuttle. Of the 37 who have exceeded peer average, 9 started in 2008. It’s not terribly important, but not to be ignored if a prospect runs faster than an 11.82.


1st String 20% 9 36 45

Two-Deep 17% 19 92 111

On Roster 16% 22 118 140

Made Camp 13% 34 233 267




Long Shuttle - LB (Avg 11.82)Total

55

S - EPA

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%EPA7

EPA6

EPA5

EPA4

EPA3

EPA2

EPA1


Safety Exceeded Peer Average (EPA) - Safeties

The optimal EPA number for Safeties is 1. One? Safeties who exceed peer average in one category are as successful as those who exceed in four, five, and six categories? Absolutely. 30% of the EPA1 safeties started in 2008.

SProspect


Never Signed

7 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%6 5 40% 40% 40% 100% 0%5 17 18% 47% 65% 88% 12%4 41 17% 34% 44% 68% 32%3 58 12% 28% 40% 79% 21%2 43 12% 26% 28% 74% 26%1 30 30% 43% 50% 83% 17%0 14 14% 29% 36% 71% 29%

All 208 17% 33% 41% 77% 23% With safety, it’s all a matter of fit. See below to find out if there is one attribute a safety must exceed at to have a 30% chance to start.

The adjacent radar chart corresponds directly to the above table. As you can see, the odds for success are as high with EPA1 safeties as with any others. Nine safety prospects between 2005 and 2008 came into the league with an EPA of 1 and started in the 2008 season: Brodney Pool, LaRon Landry, Donte Whitner, O.J. Atogwe, Antoine Bethea, Ko Simpson, Chinedum Ndukwe, Charles Godfrey, and Dawan Landry.

Attribute Success Correlation (ASC) - Safeties

Remember the bit about the 40 getting beat up a lot for getting too much attention. Well, here’s another position at which the 40 is the #1 attribute. 74% of prospects who exceeded peer average in the 40 were starting in 2008. The three-cone and short shuttle are tied at #2 and they’re only at 46%. It’s not even close. The last four are all under 33%: Bench 31%, Broad 29%, Vert 23%, and Long Shuttle 23%. If William Moore or Louis Delmas are really going to make noise in the league in 2009, they’d be best advised to bring a 40 that clocks in under 4.58.

56

40-Yard Dash – Safety

At 74% for starters, 70% for two-deepers, and 69% for rostered safeties, the 40 is by far and away the most important attribute at the position. If a safety prospect is looking for just one attribute to exceed peer average, pick the 40.


1st String 74% 26 9 35

Two-Deep 70% 48 21 69

On Roster 69% 59 27 86

Made Camp 59% 95 66 161


All S Prospects 50% 104 104 208


40-yd Dash - S (Avg 4.58)Total

Notables: Kerry Rhodes 4.56, Chris Harris 4.55, Atari Bigby and Michael Johnson 4.53, Roman Harper 4.50, Eric Weddle 4.48, Brandon Meriweather 4.47, Ko Simpson 4.45, Antoine Bethea 4.39, Nick Collins and Donte Whitner 4.38, and LaRon Landry and Reggie Nelson 4.35.

Three-Cone – Safety

46% isn’t compelling by itself.


1st String 46% 16 19 35

Two-Deep 49% 34 35 69

On Roster 52% 45 41 86

Made Camp 45% 72 89 161




Three-Cone - S (Avg 7.04)Total

Short Shuttle – Safety

46% does not stand alone.


1st String 46% 16 19 35

Two-Deep 45% 31 38 69

On Roster 48% 41 45 86

Made Camp 48% 77 84 161




Correlation

ShortShuttle - S (Avg 4.25)

57

Bench Press – Safety

31%? Hardly compelling.


1st String 31% 11 24 35

Two-Deep 32% 22 47 69

On Roster 34% 29 57 86

Made Camp 35% 56 105 161




Bench - S (Avg 16.33)Total

Broad Jump - Safety

29% - not critical.


1st String 29% 10 25 35

Two-Deep 30% 21 48 69

On Roster 34% 29 57 86

Made Camp 34% 55 106 161




Broad Jump - S (Avg 119/9'11")Total

Vertical Jump – Safety

23% - nice to have.


1st String 23% 8 27 35

Two-Deep 30% 21 48 69

On Roster 29% 25 61 86

Made Camp 37% 59 102 161




Vertical Jump - S (Avg 35.82)Total

Long Shuttle – Safety

It’s run by more safeties than any other position, but at 23%, it’s still hardly compelling as a must-have attribute.

58


1st String 23% 8 27 35

Two-Deep 20% 14 55 69

On Roster 22% 19 67 86

Made Camp 19% 30 131 161




Long Shuttle - S (Avg 11.61)Total

59

CONCLUSIONS Wide Receiver – Exceed the peer average in the 40 (4.53), Vert (36.05), and at least two other attributes and their odds for success will be very good. 83% of WR prospects that EPA’d in the 40 and Vert started in 2008. Center – Exceed the peer average in the Short Shuttle (4.69), Vert (5.25), and three other attributes and odds for starting go up significantly. 89% of Center prospects who EPA’d in the Short Shuttle started in 2008. 78% who EPA’d in the Vert started. Offensive Guard – Exceed peer average in the Three-Cone (7.84) and three other attribute tests to get the best chance to start. Two-thirds of OG prospects (11/17) that EPA’d in the Three-Cone started in 2008. Offensive Tackle – Exceed peer average in the 40 (5.27) and four other attribute tests to get the best chance to start. Two-thirds of OT prospects (27/41) that EPA’d in the 40 started in 2008. Running Back – Exceed peer average in the 40 (4.57) and three other attribute tests. Two-thirds of RB prospects (11/16) that EPA’d in the 40 started in 2008. Tight End – Exceed peer average in the 40 (4.80) and four other attribute tests to get the best chance to start. Three-fourths of TE prospects (13/17) EPA’d in the 40 and started in 2008. Fullback – Exceed peer average in the Three-Cone (7.27) and four other attribute tests to get the best chance to start. Two-thirds of FB prospects (7/11) that EPA’d in the Three-Cone started in 2008. Quarterback – Have Quarterback prospects walk a straight line for 20 yards with their left fingertip on their nose, use the results to predict success, and you’ll be as accurate as using the seven main physical attribute tests. Cornerback – Exceed peer average in the 40 (4.49), Three-Cone (6.98), Short Shuttle (4.21), Broad Jump (10’2”), and two other categories to secure the have chance to succeed in the NFL. 83% of CB prospects (24/29) that EPA’d in the 40 started in 2008. 76% (22/29) who EPA’d in the Three-Cone started in 2008. 72% (21/29) who EPA’d in the Short Shuttle and Broad Jump started in 2008. Defensive Tackle – Exceed peer average in five attributes and the odds for starting are 100%. Make one of those five attributes the Three-Cone drill (7.67) and exceed in four others. Defensive End – Exceed peer average in the 40 (4.90) and five other attribute tests. Two-thirds of DE prospects (15/23) that EPA’d in the 40 started in 2008. Linebacker – Exceed peer average in the 40 (4.70) and five other attribute tests. Two-thirds of LB prospects (30/45) that EPA’d in the 40 started in 2008. Safety - Exceed peer average in the 40 (4.58). Two-thirds of S prospects (26/35) that EPA’d in the 40 started in 2008.

60

REFERENCES

• All Pro Day data came from Gil Brandt’s Pro Day Workout Updates as posted on NFL.com from February to April of 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008.

• Combine data came from NFL.com, NFLCombine.net, and OurLads. • All data for 1st String%, Two-Deep%, and Roster% came from OurLads.com. • All data for players that attended a camp, but were later cut (and not re-

signed) came from regional newspaper sources, NFL team sites, and major media outlets.

forecasting nfl success with physical attribute … nfl success with physical attribute tests...

Documents