Forecast Forecast for 21” TV Sales for 21” TV Sales

Yasmine Yahia Mohamed Tantawi Ossama KamalYasser Abd-Elbary

Under Supervision:Prof. Sayed Elkholy

QA– ESLSCA_29B25 October 2009

Simple Moving AverageWeighted Moving AverageSmoothing ForecastSeasonal IndexComparison

ContentsContents

Simple Moving Average Simple Moving Average Month Actual

Sales (2008)

Actual Sales

(2009)

SMA (3months)

SMA (4months)

SMA (6months)

Jan 4100 4286

Feb 2655 2978

Mar 3221 3689

Apr 2100 2200

May 2250 2460

Jun 3150 3396

Jul 3347 3788

Aug 4550 5788

Sep 3367 3870

Oct 2116 4482 4211 3584

Nov 3245

Dec 4760

Weighted Moving Average Weighted Moving Average Month Actual

Sales (2008)

Actual Sales (2009)

Wi

(0.74)

AiWi

Jan 4100 4286 0.106 452.90

Feb 2655 2978 0.068 203.40

Mar 3221 3689 0.082 304.25

Apr 2100 2200 0.054 119.10

May 2250 2460 0.058 142.65

Jun 3150 3396 0.081 275.70

Jul 3347 3788 0.086 327.06

Aug 4550 5788 0.117 678.75

Sep 3367 3870 0.086 334.14

Oct 2116 0.054 3836.63

Nov 3245 0.084

Dec 4760 0.122

Smoothing Forecast Smoothing Forecast SFSFt+1t+1=SF=SFtt+ + αα(A(Att-SF-SFtt))

Month Actual Sales (2008)

Actual Sales

(2009)

SF

(α=0.2)

SF

(α=0.5)

SF

(α=0.85)

Jan 4100 4286 4286 4286 4286

Feb 2655 2978 4286 4286 4286

Mar 3221 3689 4024 3632 3174

Apr 2100 2200 3957 3661 3612

May 2250 2460 3606 2930 2414

Jun 3150 3396 3377 2695 2453

Jul 3347 3788 3381 3046 3255

Aug 4550 5788 3462 3417 3708

Sep 3367 3870 3927 4602 5476

Oct 2116 3916 4236 4111

Nov 3245

Dec 4760

Seasonal IndexSeasonal IndexMonth

XActual Sales (2008) Y

X2 Y2 XY

Jan 1 4100 1 16,810,000 4,100

Feb 2 2655 4 7,049,025 5,310

Mar 3 3221 9 10,374,841 9,663

Apr 4 2100 16 4,410,000 8,400

May 5 2250 25 5,062,500 11,250

Jun 6 3150 36 9,922,500 18,900

Jul 7 3347 49 11,202,409 23,429

Aug 8 4550 64 20,702,500 36,400

Sep 9 3367 81 11,336,689 30,303

Oct 10 2116 100 4,477,456 21,160

Nov 11 3245 121 10,530,025 35,695

Dec 12 4760 144 22,657,600 57,120

78 38,861 650 134,535,545 261,730

Seasonal Index … Seasonal Index … ContinueContinue

Y’ = a + bX

b = (n ΣXY – ΣX ΣY)/(n ΣX2 –(ΣX)2)

a = (ΣY – b ΣX) / n

ΣX = 78; ΣY = 38,861; ΣX2 = 650;

ΣY2 = 134,535,545; ΣXY=261,730

b = 63.87;

a = 2,823.3

Y’ = 2823.3 + 63.87 X

Month

XActual Sales (2008) Y

Y’ Y\Y’

Jan 1 4100 2,887.17 1.420

Feb 2 2655 2,951.04 0.900

Mar 3 3221 3,014.91 1.068

Apr 4 2100 3,078.78 0.682

May 5 2250 3,142.65 0.716

Jun 6 3150 3,206.52 0.982

Jul 7 3347 3,270.39 1.023

Aug 8 4550 3,334.26 1.365

Sep 9 3367 3,398.13 0.991

Oct 10 2116 3,462.00 0.611

Nov 11 3245 3,525.87 0.920

Dec 12 4760 3,589.74 1.326

Seasonal Index … Seasonal Index … ContinueContinue

Month

XSales Forecast (2009) Y’

Y/Y’From 2008

Sales Forecast

Oct 09 22 4,228.44 0.611 2584

Nov 09 23 4,292.31 0.920 3950

Dec 09 24 4,356.18 1.326 5776

By applying Y’ for remaining months and use Y/Y’ from 2008 data for its equivalent months, we got the below table:

Note: “we couldn’t have ASI, as we have only year data”

Seasonal Index … Seasonal Index … ContinueContinue

Seasonal Index … Seasonal Index … another calculationsanother calculations

Month

XY

(2008 & 2009)

X2 Y2 XY Y’ Y/Y’

Jan 08 1 4100 1 16,810,000 4,100 2913.55 1.407

Feb 08 2 2655 4 7,049,025 5,310 2961.80 0.896

Mar 08 3 3221 9 10,374,841 9,663 3010.05 1.070

Apr 08 4 2100 16 4,410,000 8,400 3058.3 0.687

May 08 5 2250 25 5,062,500 11,250 3106.55 0.724

Jun 08 6 3150 36 9,922,500 18,900 3145.80 0.998

Jul 08 7 3347 49 11,202,409 23,429 3203.05 1.046

Aug 08 8 4550 64 20,702,500 36,400 3251.30 1.399

Sep 08 9 3367 81 11,336,689 30,303 3299.55 1.020

Oct 08 10 2116 100 4,477,456 21,160 3347.80 0.632

Nov 08 11 3245 121 10,530,025 35,695 3396.05 0.956

Dec 08 12 4760 144 22,657,600 57,120 3444.30 1.382

Jan 09 13 4286 169 18,369,796 55,718 3492.55 1.227

Feb 09 14 2978 196 8,838,484 41,692 3540.80 0.841

Mar 09 15 3689 225 13,608,721 55,335 3589.05 1.028

Apr 09 16 2200 289 4,840,000 35,200 3637.30 0.605

May 09 17 2460 324 6,051,600 41,820 3685.55 0.667

Jun 09 18 3396 361 11,532,816 61,128 3733.80 0.910

Jul 09 19 3788 400 14,348,944 71,972 3782.05 1.002

Aug 09 20 5788 441 33,500,944 115,760 3830.30 1.511

Sep 09 21 3870 3,311 14,976,900 81,270 3878.55 0.998

231 71,316 260,633,750 821,625

Month

XSales Forecast (2009) Y’

Y/Y’From 2008

Sales Forecast

Oct 09 22 3,926.80 0.632 2481.96

Nov 09 23 3975.05 0.956 3798.25

Dec 09 24 4023.30 1.382 5560.17

Y’ = a + bXb = 48.25; a = 2,865.30Y’ = 2865.3 + 48.25 X

By applying Y’ for remaining months and use Y/Y’ from 2008 data for its equivalent months, we got the below table:

Note: “we couldn’t have ASI, as we have only year data”

Seasonal Index … Seasonal Index … another calculationsanother calculations

Comparison Comparison Oct Nov Dec

SMA (3months) 4482

SMA (4months) 4211

SMA (6months) 3584

WMA 3837

SF (α=0.2) 3916

SF (α=0.5) 4236

SF (α=0.85) 4111

Seasonal Index (1st Calculations)

2584 3950 5776

Seasonal Index (2nd Calculations)

2482 3798 5560