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Wildfire Season Forecast

Forecast 2019May 17, 2019

Richard Carr, Wildland Fire Research Analyst, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada

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AgendaThis presentation

• Provides some background information

• Revisits last year’s fire season

• Summarizes current global and Canadian conditions

• Describes the forecast methodology

• Provides the 2019 forecast (May 1 run)

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Background information

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ECCC-CCCS Summer Temperature and

Precipitation Trends

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Wildland fire in CanadaFire numbers and areas burned are highly variable• Area burned increasing (dotted orange line)

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Forecasts: General points

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Forecast maps are available on

• Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS) web site: http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca

• North American Seasonal Forecast Assessment Outlook: http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/NA_Outlook.pdf

Forecasts may be based on:

• CWFIS information (may include data provided by provinces/territories)

• Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) seasonal forecasts

• Visual assessment of other climate model output (specific products)

http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/

http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/NA_Outlook.pdf

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Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS)

The CWFIS provides: • Fire weather

• Fire behaviour

• Fire locations

• Interactive map

• Seasonal forecast and other information

URL:http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca

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http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/

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Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System

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Temperature

Humidity,

Wind, Rain

Temperature,

Humidity,

Rain

WindTemperature,

Rain

Fire Weather

Observations

DCDrought Code

DMCDuff Moisture Code

ISIInitial Spread Index

BUIBuildup Index

FWIFire Weather Index

FFMCFine Fuel Moisture Code

Fire Behavior

Indexes

Fuel Moisture

Codes

Snow depth

Barometric Pressure

Horizontal Visibility

Cloud cover and type

Upper air data

DSR/MSR/SSRSeverity Rating

Seasonal forecasts use the severity rating anomaly

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F

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Climate Ensemble Data

Models used by ECCC’s Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC):• Developed by Canadian Centre for Climate modeling and analysis (CCCma)

• Temperature, precipitation are inputs for our wildland fire seasonal forecast (wind also in the future)

• CanCM3 uses atmospheric model CanAM3 (AGCM3)

• CanCM4 uses atmospheric model CanAM4 (AGCM4)

• Each model uses 10-member ensembles producing 12-month forecasts

• CanSIPS: Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System

ENSO and other influences represented in climate models

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El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO)El Niño:• Warm ocean temperature anomaly in eastern Pacific; atmospheric

pressure higher over Darwin than Tahiti

La Niña:• Cold ocean temperature anomaly in eastern Pacific; atmospheric

pressure higher over Tahiti than Darwin

ENSO events: • May cause extreme global weather (floods, droughts)

• Persist 9-12 months; sometimes 2+ years

• Recur every 2 to 7 years

• Develop often during April-June

• Reach maximum strength Dec-Feb

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Fire problems in ENSO Springs

El Niño: • Warm, windy,

and dry in western Canada

La Niña:•Arctic surface

highs bring dry air, strong wind around edges •Temperature may be cool

Summer fire problems may depend on other influences

Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ

1989 -1.7 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1

1990 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4

1991 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.5

1992 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1

1993 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1

1994 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1

1995 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0

1996 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5

1997 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4

1998 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.5 -0.1 -0.8 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6

1999 -1.5 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2 -1.3 -1.5 -1.7

2000 -1.7 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7

2001 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3

2002 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.1

2003 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4

2004 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

2005 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8

2006 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9

2007 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6

2008 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7

2009 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6

Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ

2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6

2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0

2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2

2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3

2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7

2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6

2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6

2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0

2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8

2019 0.8 0.8 0.8

Most area burned

2nd most area burned

Chisholm, AB

Kelowna, BC

Virginia Hills, AB

Slave Lake, AB

Fort McMurray, AB

Big years in BC

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Sunspots

http://www.sidc.be/images/wolfmms.png

http://www.sidc.be/silso/IMAGES/GRAPHICS/wolfaml2.png

https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml

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Pacific Decadal Oscillationhttps://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/decadal/pdo_month.htmlhttp://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/PDO.html

Warm phase Cold phase

-1 to +1

since late

2016

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/decadal/pdo_month.html

http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/PDO.html

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North Atlantic Oscillationhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.timeseries.gif

Moderate

positive values

past few months

https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/nao

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.timeseries.gif

https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/nao

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Effects most noticeable in

winter and spring

Higher mid-latitude zonal

winds with strong signal

Moisture transport across

Pacific?

Affects North Pacific and

Atlantic oscillations, blocking

“Cold phases” for western

North America – 7, 2, 3

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

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The 2018 Fire Season

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2018 National Statistics

MB/ON

BC

ON/QC

Red line is 10-year mean

Blue bars are 2018 data

~6850 / 5616=122%

~2.3 / 2.65 (million ha) = 85%

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2018 Season

BC, MB, ON, QC, NL, NB, and PC had more fires than normal

BC, MB, and ON had higher than normal area burned.

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2018 Predictions

MarchJune

Weak “Modoki-ish”

ENSO, +- PDO, and

Madden-Julian

Oscillation may have

helped shape the

2018 season.

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2018 Predictions – May and July runsJune July August

May run

July run

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2019 Seasonal Prediction

Starting Conditions

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2018 Fall conditions

BC: High DC more widespread, but not as extreme in south as fall 2017

Very similar pattern to fall 2017

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2019 factorsMid-March heat wave

Many record highs in western Canada

Rapid snow melt

AWCN11 CWNT 200022

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES

ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 6:22 P.M. MDT TUESDAY 19 MARCH 2019.

DISCUSSION. THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS SET NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

ON MARCH 19, 2019 (VALUES GIVEN IN DEGREES CELSIUS):

FORT SIMPSON NEW RECORD OF 16.9 OLD RECORD OF 11.7 SET IN 1915 RECORDS STARTED IN 1895

FORT SMITH NEW RECORD OF 15.6 OLD RECORD OF 12.1 SET IN 1979 RECORDS STARTED IN 1913

HAY RIVER NEW RECORD OF 16.2 OLD RECORD OF 10.7 SET IN 1979 RECORDS STARTED IN 1893

NORMAN WELLS NEW RECORD OF 16.8 OLD RECORD OF 4.0 SET IN 1982 RECORDS STARTED IN 1943

YELLOWKNIFE NEW RECORD OF 4.2 OLD RECORD OF 1.2 SET IN 1995 RECORDS STARTED IN 1942

PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS SUMMARY MAY CONTAIN PRELIMINARY OR UNOFFICIAL INFORMATION

AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE A COMPLETE OR FINAL REPORT.

END/PASPC

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2019 current DC

East-central BC through northern Manitoba probably carries effects of ample 2018 rainfall

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2019 Spring start-up conditions

Past 6 months precipitation:Dry in BC, Prairies and northernparts of the provinces

Snow depth anomaly (cm): May 13

CDM – end of April

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ENSO, PDO – Current SST

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Atmosphere

was late

synchronizing

with SST

pattern

IRI compared

this to the

2014-15 winter

El Nino onset

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2019 Seasonal Prediction

Climate and CMC Forecasts

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ENSO Forecasts

Spring predictability barrier: Short-term forecasts may be erratic; longer term peak events may be offset

Models predict weak El Nino through summer;maybe persisting into winter

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ENSO Forecasts

Slowly decreasing El Nino likelihood through winter of 2019-20

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Climate model uncertainty!

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April 30 CanSIPS: June, July, August Prediction

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April 30 CanSIPS: August, September, October Prediction

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Other modelsWe make visual assessments of other models’ output.

These are temperature plots, but precipitation is also evaluated

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Skill mapsCPC web pages show skill maps for one-month means

CanCM4 appears better than CanCM3 at temperature forecasts

CanCM3 appears better than CanCM4 at precipitation forecasts beyond 2 months

Note:

More yellow and green shows

the CM4 temperature prediction

(above, bottom) is better than

that of the CM3 (above, top). I

did not articulate this correctly

during the presentation.

Richard

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2019 NRCan-CFS Seasonal Prediction

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0 50 100 150

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CYEG

Days from Apr 1

Te

mp

- c

m3

Seasonal Forecast Methodology1.Use fall conditions to help assess

spring start-up2. Calculate average daily weather

(once per year)

4. Calculate severity rating anomaly 3. Do seasonal predictions (MSR)

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NRCan-CFS NASFAO and BN Maps

Visual assessment of other models’ predictions used in Briefing Notes (BN) and North American Seasonal Forecast Outlook Assessment (NASFAO)

+ =

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NRCan-CFS Prediction: May run, for May and June

AnomalyPredicted values normalized against average weather

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Season to Date - CIFFC

Fires: 87%

Area: 27%

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CWFIS Situation Report

*

Weekly update

More graphics

available

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NRCan-CFS Prediction: May run, for July


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NRCan-CFS Prediction: May run, for August and September


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Temperature Precipitation

Comox, BC, 2018 May run for reference

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https://www.ndstudies.gov

Overall warm temperature prediction and positive SSR trend

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Comox, BC, April 2019 run

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Comox: Compared to May 2018 run, summer increase starts earlier

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Prince George, BC, May 2019 run

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Prince George: Dry and slightly warm

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Fort Simpson, NT

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Fort Simpson: Warm CM4 offset by higher rainfall prediction normal season

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La Ronge, SK

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La Ronge: CM4 warm temperature offset by rainfall

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Halifax, NS

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Halifax: Higher indexes; maybe not high enough for concern. Possible increase in rain in late summer slows SSR (CM4).

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• Our forecasts depend on climate model limitations• Predictions may change substantially with each new run• Early spring forecasts coincide with the ENSO predictability barrier

• Weather patterns can change partway through a month• Depict date ranges for start/end of trends?

• Normals are based on slightly over 100 weather stations

• Estimated snowmelt dates are based on station historical rate

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Caveats …

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• Include wind speed in calculations

• Use more stations (or gridded historical conditions) on which to base our normals

• Use model output to help establish forecast snowmelt dates

• Validation methods

• Include forecast data from other models

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Possible improvements …

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• Quick change from winter to spring in March!• Mid-spring cool spell• Dry in west and northern parts of provinces over past 6 months

• Medium-term climatic drivers are rather weak• May produce fluctuating weather patterns

• Current CanSIPS forecasts suggest eastern Pacific ridging

• Watch for improvements in coming years

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Conclusions …

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• Canada experiences fire (~7000 fires, 2.5 million ha per year)

• We can have serious interface fires in slow years•Or where seasonal forecast indicates normal or below normal conditions

• Check updates in the first week of each month

• Monitor daily conditions on provincial and/or CWFIS web sites

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Remember …

Government of Ontario

https://www.gov.nl.ca/

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Questions?Contact:

Richard CarrFire Research AnalystNatural Resources Canada –Canadian Forest Service

[email protected]

5320 122 Street NWEdmonton, AB, CanadaT6H 3S5825-510-1265

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mailto:[email protected]

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