for by aalborg university david connolly brian vad mathiesen poul alberg Østergaard bernd möller...
TRANSCRIPT
for
by
Aalborg University David ConnollyBrian Vad MathiesenPoul Alberg ØstergaardBernd MöllerSteffen NielsenHenrik Lund
Halmstad UniversityUrban PerssonDaniel NilssonSven Werner
Ecofys Germany GmbHJan GrözingerThosmas BoersmansMichelle Bosquet
PlanEnergiDaniel Trier
STUDY FOR THE EU27
Heat Roadmap Europe 2050
Presented by: name
Why this study?
the heating and cooling sector has largely been overlooked in all European Commission scenarios exploring the energy future towards 2030 and 2050.
This study focuses on the future European heat and cooling market and its importance in terms of cost-savings, job creation, investments, and a smarter energy system.
The EU is wasting energy
(heat)…
Primary Energy Supply
Final Consumption End Use0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Non-specifiedNon-energy useTransportElectricityHeat for IndustryHeat for Buildings
Ener
gy B
alan
ce fo
r the
EU2
7 in
201
0 (E
J)
… and over 6000 DHsystems already exist in the
EU
The study
Two Reports:
HRE I (2012): Is DHC beneficial in a business-as-usual scenario?
HRE II (2013): Is DHC beneficial in a low-heat demand scenario?
Methology
GIS Mapping
District Heating Demands
District Heating Resources
Energy System
BAU (References)
District Heating Alternatives
Results (PES, CO2, Costs)
Urban areas (Heating Demands) Power and Heat Generation Waste Management Industrial waste heat potential Geothermal heat Solar Thermal
the study indicates that the market shares for district heating for buildings can be increased to 30% in 2030 and 50% in 2050.
Many Energy Sources
Energy System Analyse Model
CHP
Boiler
Electro-lyser
Heatpump and
electric boiler
PP
RES electricity
Fuel
RES heat
Hydro waterHydro
storageHydro
power plant
H2 storage
Electricity storagesystem
Import/Export
fixed and variable
Electricitydemand
Cooling device
Coolingdemand
Transport demand
Processheat
demandIndustry
Cars
Heat storage
Heat demand
www.EnergyPLAN.eu
HRE I (2012)
Is DHC beneficial for the EU energy system in a business-as-usual scenario?
HRE I (2012)
Year 2030 & 2050:
Steps 1 & 2
EU Energy Roadmap
2050
2010Present 12% DH
203030% DH &
RE
205050% DH &
REIEA HRE
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800
District Heating Production for Heating Buildings from 2010 to 2050
BoilerSolar thermalGeothermal heatHeat pumpsWaste incinerationIndustrial surplus heatAdditional CHPExisting CHP
Dist
rict H
eatin
g Pr
oduc
tion
(TW
h)
IEA12% DH
EP CPI10% DH
HRE30% DHwith RE
EP CPI10% DH
HRE50% DHwith RE
2010 2030 2050
0500
1000150020002500300035004000
-1000100200300400500600700
Primary Energy Supply & CO2 for Heating Buildings from 2010 to 2050
EP CPI vs. HRE RE
Existing CHP & DHAdditional CHP & DHOther renewableBiomassNatural gasCoalNuclearCO2 Emission
Prim
ary
Ener
gy S
uppl
y (T
Wh)
CO2
Emiss
ions
(Mt)
HRE I (2012)
Cost and Jobs
Saved fuel costs of annual approx. 30 Billion EUR in 2050
In total cost are reduced by 14 Billion EUR in 2050
Additional investments of a total of 500 billion EUR
Additional jobs from to 2013 to 2050: 8-9 million man-year in total
Approx. 220,000 jobs.
IEA EP CPI HRE RE EP CPI HRE RE2010 2030 2050
020406080
100120140
Annual EU27 Costs for Heating Buildings from 2010 to 2050
Fuel Fixed operation costsAnnual investment costs
Annu
al H
eatin
g Bu
ildin
g Co
sts (
Billi
on
Euro
)
HRE I (2012)
HRE I Conclusion: 50% DH and CHP
Decrease primary energy supply and especially fossil fuels and CO2 emissions
Decrease annual costs of energy in Europe by approximately €14 Billion in 2050
Create additional 220,000 jobs over the period 2013-2050
Further integration of RES
LESS FUEL
LESS MONEY
MORE EU JOBS
MORE RE
HRE I (2012)
HRE II (2013)
Is DHC beneficial for the EU energy system in a low-heat demand scenario?
Is DHC a good idea if we implement a lot of energy efficiency in the buildings?
HRE II (2013)
EU-EE vs. HRE-EE DH Supply
EU-EE HRE-EE EU-EE HRE-EE2030 2050
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
IndustryWasteGeothermalSolarHeat PumpsBoilerCHP
Dist
rict H
eatin
g Su
pply
for R
esid
entia
l and
Se
rvic
es B
uild
ings
(TW
h/ye
ar)
HRE II (2013)
EU-EE vs. HRE-EE: Primary Energy Supply
& CO2
EU-EE(13% DH)
HRE-EE(30% DH)
EU-EE(13% DH)
HRE-EE(50% DH)
2030 2050
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
18,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Nuclear Coal Oil Gas Biomass Waste RES
Prim
ary
Ener
gy S
uppl
y (T
Wh/
year
)
Carb
on D
ioxi
de E
miss
ions
(X, M
t/ye
ar)
HRE II (2013)
EU-EE vs. HRE-EE:Heat & Cooling Costs -
15%
EU-EE(13% DH)
HRE-EE(30% DH)
EU-EE(13% DH)
HRE-EE(50% DH)
2030 2050
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
End-Use Energy Efficiency Investments Heating System InvestmentsCooling System Investments Centralised Electricity & Heat PlantsFuel CO2
Tota
l Cos
ts fo
r Hea
ting
and
Cool
ing
in th
e Re
side
ntial
and
Ser
vice
s Sec
tors
(B€/
year
)
HRE II (2013)
Renewables and Energy Efficiency
Additional Renewables 100 TWh Geothermal 100 TWh large-scale solar 65 TWh wind (due to a
smarter energy system)Context: 2050 total
heat is 2600 TWh
Energy Efficiency Demand side is extremely
important, but eventually it will become expensive
Supply side also has many options: PP converted to CHP 100 TWh surplus industrial
heat 200 TWh heat from waste
incineration
HRE II (2013)
Main Conclusions
District heating is an attractive solution in areas with a high heat density
District heating can be compatible and competitive with energy efficiency measures
Heat reductions in buildings can be combined with district heating at lower cost
HRE I Conclusions
If we continue under a business-as-usual scenario, then district heating can:Reduce the PESReduce the CO2 emissionsReduce the costs of the
energy systemCreation of local jobsUse more renewable energy
HRE II Conclusions
If we implement ambitious energy efficiency measures, then district heating will:Meet the same goals:
Utilise the same amount of fossil fuelsEnable the same CO2 emission
reductionsBUT, Cost approximately 15% less
HRE III
HRE III - 20??Is DHC beneficial for the EU energy system in a ???
scenario?RESEARCH TO BE CONTINUED…
Develop national plans that connect the local (mapping) and EU (modelling) results.
Optimise the EU energy system by reducing baseload electricity and developing more smart energy system technologies
Create an electric heating scenario for the EU27