Food vs. fuel and land use- Why we need Food vs. fuel and land use- Why we need Intern. Bioenergy trade & agric. revolution Intern. Bioenergy trade & agric. revolution Intern. Workshop: “Woodfuel supply chain- Intern. Workshop: “Woodfuel supply chain-

Sharing experienceSharing experienceWarwick, 15-19 Sept/2008Warwick, 15-19 Sept/2008

Frank Rosillo-CalleFrank Rosillo-CalleResearch FellowResearch Fellow

CEP/BEGCEP/BEGImperial College LondonImperial College London

f.rosillo-calle@imperial.ac.ukf.rosillo-calle@imperial.ac.uk www3.imperial.ac.uk/people/f.rosillo-callewww3.imperial.ac.uk/people/f.rosillo-calle

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The food vs. fuel dilemma The food vs. fuel dilemma

The agricultural and forestry sectors face huge The agricultural and forestry sectors face huge challenges and opportunities as a rising demand challenges and opportunities as a rising demand for an increasingly diverse range of products for an increasingly diverse range of products emerges. emerges.

Markets for the classical six "Fs": Markets for the classical six "Fs": Food, Feed, Food, Feed, Fuel, Feedstock, Fibre and Fertiliser, Fuel, Feedstock, Fibre and Fertiliser, is is expanding rapidly driven by a combination of expanding rapidly driven by a combination of growing population, and rising per-capita demand growing population, and rising per-capita demand for non-food ‘natural’ products. for non-food ‘natural’ products.

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The growing concern with biofuels The growing concern with biofuels

Recent studies questioning some environmental and social Recent studies questioning some environmental and social benefits of biofuels have intensified the debate [e.g. see benefits of biofuels have intensified the debate [e.g. see FAO (2007); Royal Society (2008)].FAO (2007); Royal Society (2008)].

A common feature of many studies is that they lack A common feature of many studies is that they lack rigorous long term scientific data to back up most of the rigorous long term scientific data to back up most of the claims. claims.

Worse, most of the criticisms have been blown up out of Worse, most of the criticisms have been blown up out of proportion by the general press and detractors of biofuels.proportion by the general press and detractors of biofuels.

Production of biofuels is complex given the key role of Production of biofuels is complex given the key role of agriculture, the potential impacts of climate change, agriculture, the potential impacts of climate change, increasing demand for food and energy, and environmental increasing demand for food and energy, and environmental scrutiny. scrutiny.

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Agricultural dilemma Agricultural dilemma

What then could be the potential role of What then could be the potential role of agriculture in meeting such demand without agriculture in meeting such demand without jeopardising its primary role of providing food?jeopardising its primary role of providing food?

What would be the economic, social, political, What would be the economic, social, political, and environmental consequences? and environmental consequences?

How is this increasingly complex situation How is this increasingly complex situation managed will be crucial.managed will be crucial.

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The dilemma of raising food prices The dilemma of raising food prices

The farmer needs higher prices so that he/she The farmer needs higher prices so that he/she can re-invest can re-invest • But who is the real beneficiary But who is the real beneficiary • The poor in particular needs to keep prices low The poor in particular needs to keep prices low • Needs social safeguards Needs social safeguards

Raw material plays a small role in prices Raw material plays a small role in prices increasesincreases• Transport, transformation, speculation (…) real Transport, transformation, speculation (…) real

culprits culprits

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1. Fact1. Fact

Rise on commodities international prices since January 2000Rise on commodities international prices since January 2000

Source: Institute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA), 2008Source: Institute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA), 2008

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

jan

/00

jan

/01

jan

/02

jan

/03

jan

/04

jan

/05

jan

/06

jan

/07

jan

/08

General Grains, oils and fruits Crude oil and oil products

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1. Fact1. Fact

Growth of world agricultural productionGrowth of world agricultural production

Source: FAOSource: FAO

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Which course of action? Which course of action?

There are not easy and single answers There are not easy and single answers By transforming agriculture (i.e. through new By transforming agriculture (i.e. through new

investment, education, skills, greater equity, etc) investment, education, skills, greater equity, etc) and fair trade of agricultural products (including and fair trade of agricultural products (including biofuels) it is possible to produce far more food biofuels) it is possible to produce far more food and substitute 5-20% of petrol in transportation and substitute 5-20% of petrol in transportation by biofuels without affecting food supply. by biofuels without affecting food supply.

What is needed is to transform the way we What is needed is to transform the way we produce, transform, and distribute agricultural produce, transform, and distribute agricultural products. products.

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How much land is available? How much land is available?

There are more than 2Gha of underexploited land, plus 700 There are more than 2Gha of underexploited land, plus 700 Mha of other type of land that could be used for non-food Mha of other type of land that could be used for non-food purposes.purposes.

DDirect land competitionirect land competition is a myth rather than a reality is a myth rather than a reality considering that merely 1% of the global land area is considering that merely 1% of the global land area is currently dedicated to biofuels.currently dedicated to biofuels.

A complex web of factors e.g. lack of investment in A complex web of factors e.g. lack of investment in agriculture, short term investment objectives, speculation agriculture, short term investment objectives, speculation poverty. poverty.

As Hazel & Wood (2007) put it As Hazel & Wood (2007) put it “.., more food is produced “.., more food is produced than needed to feed the entire world population and at than needed to feed the entire world population and at prices that have never been so low. The fundamental prices that have never been so low. The fundamental hunger problem today is one of income distribution rather hunger problem today is one of income distribution rather than food shortages”.than food shortages”.

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2. Land use2. Land use

Area for agricultureArea for agriculture

Source: Institute for International Trade Negotiations (ICONE), 2008Source: Institute for International Trade Negotiations (ICONE), 2008

RegionPresent situation

(Mha)Potential (Mha) Growth

Conversion of pastures in new agricultural areas

North America 257 382 49% 93%

South America 116 460 297% 77%

Europe 266 429 61% 83%

Africa 197 637 223% 69%

Asia 508 454 -11%

Oceania 53 89 68% 100%

Total 1,397 2,451 75%

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Land alone isn’t the issueLand alone isn’t the issue

India has stabilised crop land area by increasing India has stabilised crop land area by increasing productivity through capitalization, R&D, skills…productivity through capitalization, R&D, skills…

Ravindranth (2006) has suggested that even with Ravindranth (2006) has suggested that even with modest increases in crops productivity, India modest increases in crops productivity, India could free up one-third to one-half of India’s could free up one-third to one-half of India’s current cropland for production of bioenergy. current cropland for production of bioenergy.

And keeping up with food demand (…) And keeping up with food demand (…)

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A problem of lack of investment, skills, A problem of lack of investment, skills, capital, market…capital, market…

Agriculture has suffered from chronic under Agriculture has suffered from chronic under investment in most parts of the world e.g. in the investment in most parts of the world e.g. in the 1980s about 17% of international development 1980s about 17% of international development aid was for agriculture, but in 2005 this was just aid was for agriculture, but in 2005 this was just 3%. 3%.

Modernisation of agriculture is essential as it will Modernisation of agriculture is essential as it will lead to greater overall production.lead to greater overall production.

Agriculture needs massive new investment, for Agriculture needs massive new investment, for innovation and diversification which could truly innovation and diversification which could truly transform agriculture as we know it. transform agriculture as we know it.

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Science-based agriculture (…) Science-based agriculture (…)

Farming cannot be seen as a backward activity, Farming cannot be seen as a backward activity, but as a science driven industry. but as a science driven industry.

Investment on modern scientific research for Investment on modern scientific research for agriculture led to dramatic yield breakthroughs in agriculture led to dramatic yield breakthroughs in the last centurythe last century

Example, in England wheat yields took nearly Example, in England wheat yields took nearly 1000 years to increase from 0.5 to 2 t/ha/yr, but 1000 years to increase from 0.5 to 2 t/ha/yr, but just 40 years increased to 6 t/ha/yr (Hazel & just 40 years increased to 6 t/ha/yr (Hazel & Woods, 2007). Woods, 2007).

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Give farmers the right conditions!! Give farmers the right conditions!!

Give the farmers the right conditions and they Give the farmers the right conditions and they will be able to produce far more food, energy and will be able to produce far more food, energy and industrial products. industrial products.

Think of the poor African farmer, only if he/she Think of the poor African farmer, only if he/she could have access to the same conditions farmers could have access to the same conditions farmers have in the industrial countries! have in the industrial countries!

This requires many fundamental changes e.g. This requires many fundamental changes e.g. land ownership, fair distribution, good educational land ownership, fair distribution, good educational level, availability of capital, skills, finance, level, availability of capital, skills, finance, marketing knowledge, and so forth. marketing knowledge, and so forth.

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Promote freer biofuels tradePromote freer biofuels trade

It is illogic to tax biofuels while fossil fuels do not It is illogic to tax biofuels while fossil fuels do not have any trade barriers or any other restrictions. have any trade barriers or any other restrictions.

Walter et al (2008 & Walter et al (2008 & www.bioenergytrade.orgwww.bioenergytrade.org studies show that international bioenergy trade is studies show that international bioenergy trade is essential to ensure the sustainability and low cost essential to ensure the sustainability and low cost of biofuelsof biofuels

Remove artificial barriers and leaving the market Remove artificial barriers and leaving the market to play much greater role in determining the right to play much greater role in determining the right and fair price rather than governments. and fair price rather than governments.

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Over-concern with biofuels (?)Over-concern with biofuels (?)

It is right to ask ourselves It is right to ask ourselves ““Will our concern with the environment, Will our concern with the environment,

sustainability, and biodiversity leads to the sustainability, and biodiversity leads to the imposition of requirements so stringent that it will imposition of requirements so stringent that it will hinder (or even prevent) rather than enhance the hinder (or even prevent) rather than enhance the development of biofuels? development of biofuels?

It is important to devise strategies that allow for It is important to devise strategies that allow for the best possible use of biomass resources on a the best possible use of biomass resources on a fair playing field. fair playing field.

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There is not a perfect fuel!!There is not a perfect fuel!!

There is not any There is not any magic formula or perfect fuelmagic formula or perfect fuel Biofuels are being subjected to unprecedented Biofuels are being subjected to unprecedented

scrutiny scrutiny Why aren’t we applying the same criteria for all Why aren’t we applying the same criteria for all

fuels, particularly fossil fuels? fuels, particularly fossil fuels? Think of the Canadian shale-oil exploration!Think of the Canadian shale-oil exploration! Support not KILL biofuels!Support not KILL biofuels!

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Main references Main references

FAO (2007) Stainable Bioenergy: A Framework for FAO (2007) Stainable Bioenergy: A Framework for Decision Makers, UN-FAODecision Makers, UN-FAO

Hazel P & Woods S. (2007) Drivers of Change on Hazel P & Woods S. (2007) Drivers of Change on Global Agriculture, Philosophical Transactions of Global Agriculture, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. (2008): 363: 495-515the Royal Society B. (2008): 363: 495-515

ROYAL SOCIETY (2008) Stainable Biofuels: ROYAL SOCIETY (2008) Stainable Biofuels: Prospects and Challenges, Royal Society, London, Prospects and Challenges, Royal Society, London, ISBN 978 0 85403 662 2ISBN 978 0 85403 662 2

Walter A, Rosillo-Calle, F, Dolzan P, Piacente E, Walter A, Rosillo-Calle, F, Dolzan P, Piacente E, Borges da Cunha K., (2008). Perspectives on fuel Borges da Cunha K., (2008). Perspectives on fuel ethanol consumption and trade, ethanol consumption and trade, Biomass and Biomass and BioenergyBioenergy (in press) (in press)

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Freer trade = fairer trade Freer trade = fairer trade

We need an agricultural revolution, primarily in We need an agricultural revolution, primarily in developing countriesdeveloping countries

Freer international bioenergy trade Freer international bioenergy trade Fairer international trade Fairer international trade Equal playing field for biofuels Equal playing field for biofuels

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End End

Thank you!!Thank you!!