FOCUS MODEL OVERVIEWCLASS FIVEDenver Regional Council of Governments

July27, 2011

Tentative Schedule

Model Steps July 28Model Steps & More about

Application to unconfuse you

August 4

Focus Model Duality

SQL Server Database and TransCAD files (bin, matrix)

T-SQL/C# Code And GISDK Code

Focus Model Flow: 28 Steps

Outside The Speed Feedback Loop: Run Once-STAGE 1GISDK called from C#:GISDK PreprocessJava:3. Population SynthesizerC#4. PopSyn Output Processor5. Size Sum Variable Calculator

STAGE 2 GISDK called from C#:For DIA, I-E, E-E and Commercial Trips1. DRCOG Multi-Period Highway Preprocess 2. DRCOG Multi-Period Transit Preprocess3. DRCOG Transit Preprocess4. Trip Generation

5. Highway and Transit Skimming6. Trip Distribution7. Mode Choice

STAGE 3 C# Regular Trips8. Regular Work Location Choice 19 . Tour Main Mode Choice 9. Regular School Location Choice 20. Tour Time of Day Choice10. Auto Availability 21. Intermediate Stop Generation11. Aggregate Logsum Generation 22. Trip Time of Day Simulation12.Daily Activity Pattern 23. Trip Time Copier13. Exact Number of Tours 24. Intermediate Stop Location14.Work Tour Destination Type 25. Trip Mode Choice15.Work-Based Subtour Generation 26. Trip Time of Day Choice

16. Tour Time of Day Simulation 27. Write Trips to TransCAD17. Tour Primary Destination Choice18. Tour Priority Assignment

STAGE 4 GISDK called from C#:28. Highway and Transit Assignment

FEEDBACK

Focus Model Flow

STAGE 1: Make

PopulationAnd Network

STAGE 2:Run GISDK to Mode Choice

STAGE 3: C# Logit

Models to Create Trips

STAGE 4: GISDK

Assignment

FEEDBACK

Review

We have represented and skimmed the network. We have created external DIA and commercial

trips. People have a regular workplace and school. Households have a number of cars. We know how tours a person makes.

What is a tour again?What is a half-tour? What is an intermediate stop?How is a half-tour stop different from

an intermediate stop?

Review

We know where the tour is going, what mode it uses, and it times.

Now it’s time to make stops on the tour.

Why do you stop places instead of leaving your house and coming back again?

When you stop what is guiding what time you stop at and what mode you use?

Intermediate Stop Generation

Choice: Applied to Each Half Tour, if daily activity pattern includes a stop, Predicts work, school, escort, personal business, meal, shop, social/rec or no more stops

Model Type: Multinomial Logit

Inputs: (What do you think predicts?)Tour PurposePerson TypeNumber of Stops already madeTour Mode

Can Now Create Trips and Half Tour Stops: Fill These Tables

Here’s what the trip table looks like

Trip Time of Day Simulation

We need a time of day on each intermediate stop to pick which skim to use.

Use the distribution of observed times for intermediate stops by purpose, and monte carlo.

For example, 15% of meal stops happen between 12 pm – 1 pm

Intermediate Stop Location

We know the anchoring locations of home and primary destination. We know how many stops they will make.

Where will the person stop? Model Type: Multinomial Logit Choices: Zones, Point Locations Inputs: (What do you think predicts this?)- Distance Out of Direction the stop will take you- Stop Purpose- Number of Jobs in Each Zone- Mixed Use Density

Now we know where the stops are.

Trip Mode Choice

Choice: Drive Alone, Shared Ride 2, Shared Ride 3+, Walk to Transit, Drive to Transit, Walk, Bike School Bus

Known: Tour Mode Model Type: Multinomial Logit (separate by purpose) Inputs: (What do you think?)

Tour ModeTrip PurposeTravel TimeTime of DayIncomeDestination Density

Only Certain Trip Modes allowed by Tour Mode

Tour Mode

DT WT SBSR3+ SR2 DA B W

Trip mode

DT X

WT X X

SB X X XSR3+ X X X X

SR2 X X X X X

DA X X X X X X

B X X X X X X X

W X X X X X X X X

Trip Time of Day

Predicts: Time of Day for Intermediate Stops (we already know for primary destination

Choice: twenty four one-hour increments 12 AM- 1 AM..etc; A little tricky

Predict Stop Departure TimeOn Inbound Half Tour

We don’t know time we left home, so

Predicts Stop Arrival Time on Outbound Half Tour

Trip Time of Day Choice

Model Type: Multinomial Logit Inputs: (What do you think?)Previously Scheduled Tours and Stops(Process is Iterative)Trip PurposeTravel ModeAge Worker StatusConstants by Time of Day

Finally we have a full set of trips: we’re done with stage 3

We know: Trip Origin, Destination X, Y Trip Time Period to Within an Hour Trip Mode Trip PurposeFor Each Person, For Each Trip in the

Region

Here’s what the trips look like (again)

Focus Model FlowSTAGE 1: Make Populat

ionAnd

Network

STAGE 3: C# Logit

Models to

Create Trips

STAGE 4:

GISDKAssignment

FEEDBACK

Write Trips to TransCAD

We take these flat table trips and write them into matrices by mode by purpose. Thisw ill have all integer values.

We combine these trips with internal-external trips, external-external trips, and DIA trips by replacing the appropriate rows and columns in the matrices.

Now we can assign the Trips Finally!

Aggregate Trips into Assignment Periods

TIMES OF DAY Highway Times of Day Transit Times of Day AM1: 6:30 – 7:00 AM; AM: 6:30- 9:00 AM AM2: 7:00 – 8:00 AM; AM3: 8:00 – 9:00 AM; OP2: 9:00 – 11:30 AM; MD: 9:00 AM- 3:00 PM PM OP3: 11:30 AM – 3:00 PM; PM1: 3:00 – 5:00 PM; PM: 3:00 PM -7:00 PM PM2: 5:00 – 6:00 PM; PM3: 6:00 – 7:00 PM; OP4: 7:00 – 11:00 PM. EL: 7:00 PM – 6:00 AM OP1: 11:00 PM – 6:30 AM;

Trip Time – Distance Matrix Copier Take the Skimmed Travel Times and

Distances and Write Them Back Into the Database

Looks like this:

Stage 4: GISDK Assignment

Run Highway Assignment for 10 time periods Run Transit Assignment for 4 time periods Remember those DIA trips, external trips, and

commericial trips from way long ago: they get thrown in.

Then we know: Model Assignment OutputsAnd we can feed the speeds back to the trip-making.So people can choose daily activity patterns with the

updated speeds. People may travel less due to congestion or switch

modes

Cool Outputs

VMT for an individual person, or group of people living in a neighborhood

Number of Bike or Walk Trips Originating in a buffer around a bike path

The usual: Boardings by Route, Traffic Volumes by ten time periods

Can you think of something we can do now???

We know about each person and where they go on a point level.

Focus Model Flow: 28 Steps

Outside The Speed Feedback Loop: Run Once-STAGE 1GISDK called from C#:GISDK PreprocessJava:3. Population SynthesizerC#4. PopSyn Output Processor5. Size Sum Variable Calculator

STAGE 2 GISDK called from C#:For DIA, I-E, E-E and Commercial Trips1. DRCOG Multi-Period Highway Preprocess 2. DRCOG Multi-Period Transit Preprocess3. DRCOG Transit Preprocess4. Trip Generation

5. Highway and Transit Skimming6. Trip Distribution7. Mode Choice

STAGE 3 C# Regular Trips8. Regular Work Location Choice 19 . Tour Main Mode Choice 9. Regular School Location Choice 20. Tour Time of Day Choice10. Auto Availability 21. Intermediate Stop Generation11. Aggregate Logsum Generation 22. Trip Time of Day Simulation12.Daily Activity Pattern 23. Trip Time Copier13. Exact Number of Tours 24. Intermediate Stop Location14.Work Tour Destination Type 25. Trip Mode Choice15.Work-Based Subtour Generation 26. Trip Time of Day Choice

16. Tour Time of Day Simulation 27. Write Trips to TransCAD17. Tour Primary Destination Choice18. Tour Priority Assignment

STAGE 4 GISDK called from C#:28. Highway and Transit Assignment

FEEDBACK