florida election issues survey - aarp...florida election issues survey, august, 2007 4 over seven in...

21

Upload: others

Post on 21-Jun-2020

0 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Florida Election Issues Survey - AARP...Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 4 Over seven in ten potential voters in the Democratic primary (73%) also felt that they did not

Florida ElectionIssues Survey

August 2007

Page 2: Florida Election Issues Survey - AARP...Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 4 Over seven in ten potential voters in the Democratic primary (73%) also felt that they did not

Florida Election Issues Survey

Report prepared by Colette Thayer and Gretchen Straw

Data collected by Woelfel Research, Inc.

Copyright© by AARP, 2007 AARP

Knowledge Management 601 E Street, NW

Washington, DC 20049 Reprinting with Permission

Page 3: Florida Election Issues Survey - AARP...Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 4 Over seven in ten potential voters in the Democratic primary (73%) also felt that they did not

AARP is a nonprofit, nonpartisan membership organization that helps people 50+ have independence, choice and control in ways that are beneficial and affordable to them and society as a whole. AARP neither endorses candidates for public office nor makes political contributions. We produce AARP The Magazine, published bimonthly; AARP Bulletin, our monthly newspaper; AARP Segunda Juventud, our bimonthly magazine in Spanish and English; NRTA Live & Learn, our quarterly newsletter for 50+ educators; and our website, www.aarp.org. AARP Foundation is our affiliated charity that provides security, protection, and empowerment to older persons in need with support from thousands of volunteers, donors, and sponsors. We have staffed offices in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. For more information, contact Gretchen Straw at (202) 434-6334.

Page 4: Florida Election Issues Survey - AARP...Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 4 Over seven in ten potential voters in the Democratic primary (73%) also felt that they did not

Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 1

Florida Election Issues Survey

AARP commissioned this election issues survey of 501 Florida AARP members who say they may vote in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary and 503 who may vote in the Republican presidential primary1. The telephone survey was conducted between July 24 and August 15, 2007 by Woelfel Research, Inc. The margin of error for potential voters in each primary is + 4.4 percent.

Key Findings

Attentiveness to the Campaigns At this point in the election cycle, over seven in ten potential voters in Florida’s presidential primary are following the candidate coverage at least somewhat closely (83% Democratic; 74% Republican). Those planning to vote in the Democratic primary are more likely to say they are following coverage very closely (38% vs. 29%) than those planning to vote in the Republican primary. Solidity of Candidate Preference Although AARP members are clearly engaged, they are far from settled in their candidate preferences. Among potential voters in the Democratic primary, over six in ten say they are very (27%) or somewhat (39%) likely to change their candidate preference as they learn more about the issues between now and the election. The figure is even higher among potential voters in the Republican primary, where 41% are very likely to change their preference and 37% are somewhat likely to change it.

Likelihood of Changing Candidate Preference As Respondents Learn More About the Issues

27%41%

39%37%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Democratic Republican

SomewhatLikelyVery Likely

Mood of the Country AARP members differ in their assessment of whether the country is headed in the right direction or off on the wrong track depending upon the presidential primary in which

1 Surveys were conducted with a random sample of members drawn from AARP’s member database who were then screened on both voter registration and intention to vote in the presidential primary for 2008. To qualify, a member needed to be a currently registered voter who was possibly, very likely, or absolutely certain to vote in Florida’s 2008 presidential primary and needed to identify in which party’s primary he or she intended to vote.

Page 5: Florida Election Issues Survey - AARP...Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 4 Over seven in ten potential voters in the Democratic primary (73%) also felt that they did not

Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 2

they plan to vote. While 86% of potential voters in the Democratic primary believe the country is on the wrong track, potential voters in the Republican primary are divided (42% right direction vs. 44% wrong track). Issue Landscape When asked in an open-ended question to identify the most important issue facing the country, Florida AARP members of both parties say that Iraq is the most important issue. Among likely voters in the Democratic primary, health care is the second most often cited problem, followed by the economy/jobs. Among likely voters in the Republican primary, terrorism is the second most often cited problem, followed by immigration, the economy/jobs, and health care.

Most Important Issue Facing the Country

Potential Democratic

primary voters Potential Republican

primary voters Iraq 55% 31% Health care 12% 7% Terrorism <1% 11% Immigration 2% 9% Economy/jobs 4% 8% Financial Security Although financial security does not emerge as a top issue facing the country, it is a critical voting issue. Over nine in ten AARP potential primary voters from each party say that issues related to financial security such as Social Security, incentives for savings and investment, and pension protection will be important to their votes. This issue is very important to 75% of potential voters in the Democratic primary and to 68% of potential voters in the Republican primary.

Importance of Financial Security Issues to Voting Decision

75% 68%

20% 25%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Democratic Republican

SomewhatImportant

VeryImportant

How Well Candidates Address Financial Security Potential voters were asked to rate how well each candidate in their party’s primary had addressed the issue of ensuring that all Americans can build financial security for their entire lifetimes. Large proportions of AARP members who are potential primary voters don’t know enough about their party’s candidates’ stances on financial security to be able to rate them. More than half of potential primary voters didn’t know enough about all ten Republican candidates’ positions on financial security to rate them. And more

Page 6: Florida Election Issues Survey - AARP...Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 4 Over seven in ten potential voters in the Democratic primary (73%) also felt that they did not

Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 3

than half could not rate five of the eight Democratic candidates. Although financial security issues are very important to voters, they simply don’t know whether candidates are addressing the issues well or not.

Rating of Candidates on How Well They Have Addressed the Issue of Ensuring that all Americans Can Build Financial Security for Their Entire Lifetimes

Very or

Somewhat well Don’t Know

enough about candidate on this

issue2 Republican Candidates3 Sen. Sam Brownback 6% 84% Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani 35% 54% Former Gov. Mike Huckabee 9% 82% Rep. Duncan Hunter 5% 86% Sen. John McCain 31% 55% Rep. Ron Paul 5% 84% Former Gov. Mitt Romney 28% 60% Rep. Tom Tancredo 5% 86% Former Sen. Fred Thompson 17% 72% Former Gov. Tommy Thompson4 13% 76% Democratic Candidates5 Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr 23% 67% Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton 56% 35% Sen. Christopher J. Dodd 14% 75% Former Sen. John Edwards 42% 46% Former Sen. Mike Gravel 5% 84% Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich 10% 79% Sen. Barack Obama 38% 47% Gov. Bill Richardson 18% 69% Who Best Addresses Financial Security When potential voters in the Republican primary were asked which one candidate best addressed financial security issues, 74% said they did not know enough about their positions to make a judgment. Those candidates named by over five percent of respondents were Giuliani (8%) and Romney (6%).

2 Percent in this and subsequent questions refers to those who answered “do not know enough to judge.” In addition, a small percent fell into a general don’t know or refused category. 3 Asked only of those planning to vote in the Republican presidential primary. 4 Since the fielding of this poll, Mr. Tommy Thompson has withdrawn from the race for president. 5 Asked only of those planning to vote in the Democratic presidential primary.

Page 7: Florida Election Issues Survey - AARP...Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 4 Over seven in ten potential voters in the Democratic primary (73%) also felt that they did not

Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 4

Over seven in ten potential voters in the Democratic primary (73%) also felt that they did not know enough to make a judgment. Clinton was the only candidate named by over five percent of respondents (16%). Who Can Break Through Gridlock to Make Progress on Financial Security Slightly over half of potential voters in the Republican primary (57%) do not know enough to choose which candidate is best able to break through special interest and partisan gridlock to make real progress on ensuring that all Americans can build financial security for their entire lifetime. Four candidates were named by at least five percent as able to deal with special interests and partisan gridlock to make progress in the area: Giuliani (13%), Romney (9%), Fred Thompson (6%), and McCain (5%). On the Democratic side, slightly over half (52%) say they do not know enough about the candidate positions on the issue to make a choice either. Two candidates were named by over five percent of potential primary voters as best able to break through special interest and partisan gridlock to make real progress on financial security: Clinton (28%) and Obama (8%). Health Care Large majorities of likely primary voters say that health care will be important to their 2008 voting decision. The issue is especially salient among those planning to vote in the Democratic primary where almost all say it is at least somewhat important and 80% rate it as very important. Republicans also say that health care will be important to their voting decisions, with almost half (48%) reporting the issue will be very important.

Importance of Health Care Issues to Voting Decision

80%

48%

17%

37%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Democratic Republican

SomewhatImportantVery Important

How Well Candidates Address Health Care Potential voters were asked to rate each candidate in their party’s primary on how well he or she has addressed the issue of ensuring that all Americans have access to affordable, quality health care. As was the case in ratings of the candidates’ positions on financial security, many potential primary voters of both parties report that they are unable to rate the candidates’ positions on health care because they don’t know enough about them. More than half were unable to rate eight of the ten Republican candidates on this issue. And more than half were unable to rate five of the eight Democratic candidates. Although the issue of health care is important to voting decisions, potential primary voters frequently do not know much about candidates’ positions on the issue.

Page 8: Florida Election Issues Survey - AARP...Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 4 Over seven in ten potential voters in the Democratic primary (73%) also felt that they did not

Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 5

Rating of Candidates on How Well They Have Addressed the Issue of Ensuring

that all Americans Have Access to Affordable, Quality Health Care

Very or Somewhat well

Don’t Know enough about

candidate on this issue

Republican Candidates6 Sen. Sam Brownback 8% 81% Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani 47% 39% Former Gov. Mike Huckabee 12% 79% Rep. Duncan Hunter 5% 87% Sen. John McCain 37% 41% Rep. Ron Paul 6% 83% Former Gov. Mitt Romney 35% 52% Rep. Tom Tancredo 6% 83% Former Sen. Fred Thompson 22% 67% Former Gov. Tommy Thompson 14% 73% Democratic Candidates7 Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr 27% 59% Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton 76% 15% Sen. Christopher J. Dodd 14% 74% Former Sen. John Edwards 56% 31% Former Sen. Mike Gravel 7% 82% Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich 15% 73% Sen. Barack Obama 49% 37% Gov. Bill Richardson 23% 63% Who Best Addresses Health Care Potential voters were asked which candidate has best addressed healthcare. Nearly eight in ten (78%) potential voters in the Republican primary do not know enough about candidate positions to say who best addresses health care. Romney (6%) and Giuliani (5%) are the only Republican candidates named by five percent or more as best addressing health care. Slightly over half (52%) of potential voters in the Democratic primary also do not know enough about candidate positions to name someone as best addressing the issue. Three candidates are named by five percent or more: Clinton (34%), Edwards (6%), and Obama (5%).

6 Asked only of those planning to vote in the Republican presidential primary. 7 Asked only of those planning to vote in the Democratic presidential primary. .

Page 9: Florida Election Issues Survey - AARP...Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 4 Over seven in ten potential voters in the Democratic primary (73%) also felt that they did not

Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 6

Who Can Break Through Gridlock to Make Progress on Health Care Over half of potential voters in the Republican primary (56%) and almost four in ten potential voters in the Democratic primary (39%) don’t know enough about candidate positions on health care to assess who could best break through special interest and partisan gridlock to make real progress in ensuring all Americans have access to affordable, quality healthcare. Four Republicans are named by five percent or more: Giuliani (13%), Romney (10%), Fred Thompson (7%), and McCain (5%). Three Democrats are named by five percent or more: Clinton (40%), Obama (8%), and Edwards (5%). Conclusions AARP members who may vote in the Florida presidential primaries are following candidate coverage. However, they have not settled on presidential preferences. Most say they may change their preference as they learn more about the candidates’ positions on the issues. Two domestic issues – financial security and health care – were explored in depth. Both of these issues are important to AARP members as they decide on their votes. However, in spite of following campaign coverage, large proportions of the potential voters in the Florida primaries do not know enough about candidate positions on financial security and health care to be able to assess them or choose which candidate would best address the issues.

Page 10: Florida Election Issues Survey - AARP...Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 4 Over seven in ten potential voters in the Democratic primary (73%) also felt that they did not

Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 7

AARP Issues Poll: Florida Samples: 501 AARP members – likely Democratic primary voters in Florida 503 AARP members – likely Republican primary voters in Florida * denotes statistical significance at the 90% confidence level. 1. Are you currently registered to vote in Florida?

Dem %

Rep %

100 100 1. Yes - - 2. No (TERMINATE) - - 3. Don’t Know (TERMINATE)

2. Even though the Florida presidential primary is next year, how closely have you been following the coverage of your party’s presidential candidates?

Dem %

Rep %

38* 29 1. Very closely 45 45 2. Somewhat closely 13 17* 3. Not too closely 5 9* 4. Not at all closely - - 9. DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED]

PRIMARY STATES 3. In 2008, Florida will hold a presidential primary election so that each party can select its own candidate for President. How likely are you to vote in this primary election?

Dem %

Rep %

66 64 1. Absolutely certain 25 28 2. Very likely 10 7 3. Possibly - - 4. Not very likely (TERMINATE) - - 5. Not at all likely (TERMINATE) - - 6. Don't know (TERMINATE)

Page 11: Florida Election Issues Survey - AARP...Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 4 Over seven in ten potential voters in the Democratic primary (73%) also felt that they did not

Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 8

4. In the Florida presidential primary for 2008, do you plan to vote as a Democrat, or as a Republican?

Dem %

Rep %

100 - 1. Democrat CODE AS DEM PRIMARY VOTER - 100 2. Republican CODE AS REPUBLICAN

PRIMARY VOTER

- - 3. Don't know / no plan to vote (DO NOT READ) (TERMINATE) 5. What do you believe is the most important issue facing the country? OPEN END

WITH PRE CODES

Dem %

Rep %

<1% <1% 1. abortion 1 <1% 2. balance the budget - <1% 3. budget cuts - - 4. campaign finance reform 1 <1% 5. crime - <1% 6. corruption <1% - 7. discrimination/bigotry/racism - - 8. drugs 4 8* 9. economy/jobs 1 - 10. education 1 - 11. the environment - <1% 12. guns/gun violence – need for gun control - - 13. guns – too much regulation 12* 7 14. healthcare - - 15. homelessness <1% - 16. housing 2 9* 17. immigration 55* 31 18. Iraq <1% 1* 19. morality/family values 1 <1% 20. Medicare - - 21. pension reform <1% <1% 22. politics as usual - <1% 23. prescription drugs 1 1 24. protecting Social Security 1 3* 25. taxes <1% - 26. teen violence <1% 11* 27. terrorism - - 28. retirement 14 20* 29. Other SPECIFY 5 6 30. 99) Don’t know DO NOT READ

Page 12: Florida Election Issues Survey - AARP...Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 4 Over seven in ten potential voters in the Democratic primary (73%) also felt that they did not

Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 9

6. Overall, do you think things in the country are generally headed in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track?

Dem %

Rep %

5 42* 1. Right direction 86* 44 2. Wrong track 9 14* 9. Don’t know [VOLUNTEERED]

7a. In making your decision about who to vote for in 2008, will the issue of health care be very important, somewhat important, not too important or not at all important?

Dem %

Rep %

80* 48 1. Very important 17 37* 2. Somewhat important 2 10* 3. Not too important 1 5* 4. Not at all important 1 <1% 9. Don’t know [VOLUNTEERED]

7b. Based on what you know about the democratic/republican presidential candidates, how would you rate (INSERT CANDIDATE NAME FROM APPROPRIATE PARTY LIST) in terms of how well (he/she) has addressed the issue of ensuring that all Americans have access to affordable, quality healthcare? (PRESENT RANDOMLY) Ask for potential Republican primary voters

Ask for potential Democratic primary voters

Sen. Sam Brownback Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani Former Gov. Mike Huckabee Rep. Duncan Hunter Sen. John McCain Rep. Ron Paul Former Gov. Mitt Romney Rep. Tom Tancredo Former Gov. Tommy Thompson Former Sen. Fred Thompson

Sen. Christopher J. Dodd Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton Former Sen. John Edwards Gov. Bill Richardson Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich Former Sen. Mike Gravel Sen. Barack Obama

Page 13: Florida Election Issues Survey - AARP...Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 4 Over seven in ten potential voters in the Democratic primary (73%) also felt that they did not

Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 10

Would you say (INSERT CANDIDATE NAME FROM APPROPRIATE PARTY LIST) has addressed this issue very well, somewhat well, not too well, not at all well, or do you not know enough about (CANDIDATE NAME) on this issue?

Republicans Brownback Giuliani Huckabee Hunter McCain Paul

1 15 1 1 10 2 Very well 7 32 11 4 27 4 Somewhat well 3 5 3 3 11 4 Not too well 3 4 3 2 7 4 Not at all well 81 39 79 87 41 83 Don’t know enough about

candidate on this issue 4 5 3 4 4 4 DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED]

Republicans

Romney Tancredo Tommy Thompson Fred Thompson 12 2 4 8 Very well 23 4 10 14 Somewhat well 7 4 5 5 Not too well 3 3 4 3 Not at all well 52 83 73 67 Don’t know enough about

candidate on this issue 3 4 4 3 DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED]

Democrats

Dodd Clinton Edwards Richardson 4 45 20 5 Very well 10 31 36 18 Somewhat well 8 5 9 9 Not too well 4 3 3 3 Not at all well 74 15 31 63 Don’t know enough about

candidate on this issue 1 1 2 2 DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED]

Democrats

Biden Kucinich Gravel Obama 7 6 1 17 Very well 20 9 6 32 Somewhat well 8 7 5 9 Not too well 4 3 4 4 Not at all well 59 73 82 37 Don’t know enough about

candidate on this issue 2 3 2 1 DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED]

Page 14: Florida Election Issues Survey - AARP...Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 4 Over seven in ten potential voters in the Democratic primary (73%) also felt that they did not

Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 11

7c. Which candidate do you feel has best addressed health care, or do you not know enough about their positions on health care to make a judgment? (DO NOT READ LIST; CODE CANDIDATE NAMES or Code “Do not know enough to judge” Rep %

Dem %

- Sen. Sam Brownback <1% Sen. Christopher J. Dodd 5 Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani 34 Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton <1% Former Gov. Mike Huckabee 6 Former Sen. John Edwards - Rep. Duncan Hunter <1% Gov. Bill Richardson 2 Sen. John McCain <1% Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr 1 Rep. Ron Paul <1% Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich 6 Former Gov. Mitt Romney - Former Sen. Mike Gravel - Rep. Tom Tancredo 5 Sen. Barack Obama 1 Former Gov. Tommy Thompson 2 Other 1 Former Sen. Fred Thompson 52 Don’t know enough to judge 4 Other 78 Don’t know enough to judge 8. Based on what you know about the democratic/republican presidential candidates, which candidate do you feel has the best ability to break through special interest and partisan gridlock to make real progress in ensuring all Americans have access to affordable, quality healthcare, or do you not know enough about the candidates to make a choice? Rep %

Dem %

- Sen. Sam Brownback - Sen. Christopher J. Dodd 13 Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani 40 Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton <1% Former Gov. Mike Huckabee 5 Former Sen. John Edwards - Rep. Duncan Hunter <1% Gov. Bill Richardson 5 Sen. John McCain 1 Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr 1 Rep. Ron Paul <1% Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich 10 Former Gov. Mitt Romney - Former Sen. Mike Gravel - Rep. Tom Tancredo 8 Sen. Barack Obama 1 Former Gov. Tommy Thompson 4 Other 7 Former Sen. Fred Thompson 39 Don’t know enough to judge 3 Other 56 Don’t know enough to judge

Page 15: Florida Election Issues Survey - AARP...Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 4 Over seven in ten potential voters in the Democratic primary (73%) also felt that they did not

Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 12

9a. In making your decision about who to vote for in 2008, will issues related to financial security such as Social Security, incentives for savings and investment, and pension protection be very important, somewhat important, not too important or not at all important?

Dem %

Rep %

75* 68 1. Very important 20 25* 2. Somewhat important 3 4 3. Not too important 1 1 4. Not at all important <1% 1 9. Don’t know [VOLUNTEERED]

9b. Based on what you know about the democratic/republican presidential candidates, how would you rate (INSERT CANDIDATE NAME FROM APPROPRIATE PARTY LIST) in terms of how well (he/she) has addressed the issue of ensuring that all Americans can build financial security for their entire lifetimes? (PRESENT RANDOMLY) Ask for potential Republican primary voters

Ask for potential Democratic primary voters

Sen. Sam Brownback Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani Former Gov. Mike Huckabee Rep. Duncan Hunter Sen. John McCain Rep. Ron Paul Former Gov. Mitt Romney Rep. Tom Tancredo Former Gov. Tommy Thompson Former Sen. Fred Thompson

Sen. Christopher J. Dodd Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton Former Sen. John Edwards Gov. Bill Richardson Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich Former Sen. Mike Gravel Sen. Barack Obama

Page 16: Florida Election Issues Survey - AARP...Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 4 Over seven in ten potential voters in the Democratic primary (73%) also felt that they did not

Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 13

Would you say (INSERT CANDIDATE NAME FROM APPROPRIATE PARTY LIST) has addressed this issue very well, somewhat well, not too well, not at all well, or do you not know enough about (CANDIDATE NAME) on this issue?

Republicans Brownback Giuliani Huckabee Hunter McCain Paul

1 11 2 1 7 2 Very well 5 24 7 4 24 3 Somewhat well 3 4 2 2 6 3 Not too well 4 4 4 4 6 5 Not at all well 84 54 82 86 55 84 Don’t know enough about

candidate on this issue 4 3 3 3 2 3 DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED]

Republicans

Romney Tancredo Tommy Thompson Fred Thompson 9 1 3 5 Very well 19 4 10 12 Somewhat well 3 2 4 2 Not too well 5 4 4 5 Not at all well 60 86 76 72 Don’t know enough about

candidate on this issue 3 3 3 4 DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED]

Democrats

Dodd Clinton Edwards Richardson 3 31 13 3 Very well 11 25 29 15 Somewhat well 6 3 8 7 Not too well 4 3 3 4 Not at all well 75 35 46 69 Don’t know enough about

candidate on this issue 1 2 2 2 DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED]

Democrats

Biden Kucinich Gravel Obama 8 3 1 13 Very well 15 7 4 25 Somewhat well 5 4 4 8 Not too well 3 4 5 4 Not at all well 67 79 84 47 Don’t know enough about

candidate on this issue 2 3 3 3 DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED]

Page 17: Florida Election Issues Survey - AARP...Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 4 Over seven in ten potential voters in the Democratic primary (73%) also felt that they did not

Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 14

9c. Which candidate do you feel has best addressed financial security issues, or do you not know enough about their positions on financial security issues to make a judgment? (DO NOT READ LIST; CODE CANDIDATE NAMES, or Code “Do not know enough to judge.” Rep %

Dem %

- Sen. Sam Brownback <1% Sen. Christopher J. Dodd 8 Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani 16 Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton <1% Former Gov. Mike Huckabee 2 Former Sen. John Edwards - Rep. Duncan Hunter <1% Gov. Bill Richardson 3 Sen. John McCain 1 Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr 1 Rep. Ron Paul 1 Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich 6 Former Gov. Mitt Romney - Former Sen. Mike Gravel - Rep. Tom Tancredo 3 Sen. Barack Obama <1% Former Gov. Tommy Thompson 2 Other 2 Former Sen. Fred Thompson 73 Don’t Know 3 Other 74 Don’t Know 10. Based on what you know about the democratic/republican presidential candidates, which candidate do you feel has the best ability to break through special interest and partisan gridlock to make real progress in ensuring that all Americans can build financial security for their entire lifetimes, or do you not know enough about the candidates to make a choice? Rep %

Dem %

- Sen. Sam Brownback - Sen. Christopher J. Dodd 13 Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani 28 Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton 1 Former Gov. Mike Huckabee 4 Former Sen. John Edwards <1% Rep. Duncan Hunter 1 Gov. Bill Richardson 5 Sen. John McCain 1 Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr 1 Rep. Ron Paul <1% Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich 9 Former Gov. Mitt Romney - Former Sen. Mike Gravel - Rep. Tom Tancredo 8 Sen. Barack Obama 1 Former Gov. Tommy Thompson 3 Other 6 Former Sen. Fred Thompson 52 Don’t know enough to judge 3 Other 57 Don’t know enough to judge

Page 18: Florida Election Issues Survey - AARP...Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 4 Over seven in ten potential voters in the Democratic primary (73%) also felt that they did not

Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 15

11. How likely are you to change your candidate preference as you learn more about the issues between now and the election?

Dem %

Rep %

27 41* 1. Very likely 39 37 2. Somewhat likely 14 12 3. Not very likely 16* 6 4. Not at all likely 5 3 5. Don’t know (volunteered)

12. Please tell me if you have gotten any information about the candidates and their position on issues from: (Code yes/no for each)

Democrats Republicans Yes No Don’t

Know Yes No Don’t

Know

69* 61 Newspapers 88* 79 TV news 58* 43 TV talk shows 63* 40 Televised candidate debates 31 42* News radio 22 35* Talk radio 23* 17 Candidate forums 20 21 Campaign mailings 37* 31 Friends and family 11 10 Campaign websites 12 13 Other internet sites 9 10 Other (specify)

13. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as…? (READ LIST. ENTER ONE ONLY)

Dem %

Rep %

4 76* 1. A Republican 76* 2 2. A Democrat 17 17 3. An Independent <1% 2* 4. (DO NOT READ) Other 1 1 5. (DO NOT READ) Don’t know 2 3 6. (DO NOT READ) Refused

Page 19: Florida Election Issues Survey - AARP...Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 4 Over seven in ten potential voters in the Democratic primary (73%) also felt that they did not

Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 16

(SCRAMBLE CODES 1-3) 14. Generally speaking, would you characterize your political views as being...? (READ LIST. ENTER ONE ONLY)

Dem %

Rep %

20 60* 1. Conservative 50* 30 2. Moderate 23* 4 3. Liberal 1 1 4. (DO NOT READ) None of the Above 4* 2 5. (DO NOT READ) Don’t know 2 3 6. (DO NOT READ) Refused

Demographics D1. What is your age as of your last birthday? [RECORD IN YEARS]

Dem %

Rep %

1 1 1. Under 50 18 16 2. 50-59 47 49 3. 60-74 33 31 4. 75+ 34 29 5. 50-64 64 67 6. 65+ 2 3 7. Refused [DO NOT READ]

D2. What is your marital status? Are you currently….

Dem %

Rep %

56 69* 1. Married, 14* 9 2. Divorced, <1% <1% 3. Separated, 22 19 4. Widowed, 5* 2 5. Or have you never been married? 1* <1% 6. Living with partner [DO NOT READ] - <1% 7. Don't know [DO NOT READ] 1 1 8. Refused [DO NOT READ]

Page 20: Florida Election Issues Survey - AARP...Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 4 Over seven in ten potential voters in the Democratic primary (73%) also felt that they did not

Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 17

D3. What is the highest level of education you have completed? [READ LIST]

Dem %

Rep %

5* 1 1. Less than high school 27 23 2. High school graduate or equivalent 26 31* 3. Some college or technical training beyond high school 22 24 4. College graduate 19 19 5. Or, Post-graduate or professional degree <1% 1 6. Don't know [DO NOT READ] 1 1 7. Refused [DO NOT READ]

D4. Which of the following best describes your current employment status? Are you

currently….[READ LIST]

Dem %

Rep %

17 17 1. Employed full-time 6 7 2. Employed part-time 70 67 3. Retired and not working 1 1 4. Unemployed and looking for work 1 2 5. Homemaker 2 1 6. Disabled - - 7. Student 3 4 8. Or something else [Specify: ________] - - 9. Don’t Know [DO NOT READ] 1 1 10. Refused [DO NOT READ]

D5. For statistical purposes only, please stop me when I get to the category

That includes your household’s income before taxes in 2006. Was it… [READ LIST]

Dem

% Rep %

4 2 1. Less than $10,000 10* 6 2. $10,000 but less than $20,000 13 10 3. $20,000 but less than $30,000 13* 8 4. $30,000 but less than $40,000 10 10 5. $40,000 but less than $50,000 14 14 6. $50,000 but less than $75,000 9 9 7. $75,000 but less than $100,000 8 16* 8. $100,000 or more 3 2 9. Don't know [DO NOT READ] 17 24* 10. Refused [DO NOT READ]

Page 21: Florida Election Issues Survey - AARP...Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 4 Over seven in ten potential voters in the Democratic primary (73%) also felt that they did not

Florida Election Issues Survey, August, 2007 18

D6. Are you Spanish, Latino, or Hispanic?

Dem %

Rep %

2 3 1. Yes 97 96 2. No - - 3. Don’t Know 1 2 4. Refused

D7. Which of the following groups best describes your race? [READ LIST]

Dem %

Rep %

81 95* 1. White 14* <1% 2. Black or African-American <1% <1% 3. Asian - - 4. Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 1 - 5. American Indian or Alaska Native 3 3 6. Other <1% - 7. Don’t know 1 2 8. Refused

D8. What is your gender?

Dem %

Rep %

40 50* 1. Male 61* 50 2. Female

D9. Finally, what is your 5-digit zip code? ___________________________