FLIGHT ARRIVAL DELAY PREDICTIONShabnam AbghariInstructor: Hamidreza Chinaei6th December 2016CKME 136 – Ryerson University

INTRODUCTION Primary Research question

Will a specific U.S. flight arrive at the destination on-time or with delay?

Secondary Research Questions When is the best day of week/time of year to fly to minimize delays? Which carrier suffers more delays? How well does departure delay predict arrival delays?

DATASET

APPROACHData

Cleaning

Decriptive Analysis

Feature Selection

Model Selection

Tuning,Training, Testing

DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS

DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS

DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS

Arrival delay per airport Arrival and departure delay per airport chart

FEATURE SELECTION

MODEL SELECTION

TUNING AND TRAININGM

onth

Wee

kday

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Test

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Cost

Test

Acc

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RMSE

70,651 127,172 0.027027 1 56.08% 66.27%70,651 127,172 0.001508 1 56.85% 66.45%9,891 70,651 0.01 1 56.11% 66.25%200,000 300,000 0.01 1 56.55% 54.29%12,500 12,500 0.01 0.01 77.02% 47.93%125,000 125,000 0.01 0.01 76.71% 48.26%12,500 12,500 0.01 0.01 76.34% 48.64%12,500 12,500 0.01 0.01 76.34% 48.64%12,500 12,500 0.01 0.01 76.15% 48.83%

Airline Train Accuracy Test Accuracy Difference Test Error RMSE Sensitivity SpecifityMQ 82.6% 81.3% 1.3% 18.69% 43.11% 87.85% 73.99%OO 81.2% 79.7% 1.5% 20.30% 45.06% 89.98% 66.20%UA 79.3% 76.7% 2.6% 23.30% 48.27% 81.97% 70.73%AA 78.4% 76.0% 2.4% 24.03% 46.42% 82.70% 69.26%WN 82.4% 74.6% 7.8% 25.38% 50.38% 68.00% 84.55%

Origin Train Accuracy Test Accuracy Difference Test Error RMSE Sensitivity SpecifityORD 81.10% 79.07% 2.02% 20.93% 45.75% 80.58% 77.58%DFW 81.27% 78.20% 3.07% 21.80% 44.42% 81.56% 74.83%DEN 79.17% 76.86% 2.31% 23.14% 48.10% 82.01% 71.39%ATL 79.52% 76.38% 3.14% 23.62% 48.60% 80.87% 72.00%EWR 78.07% 74.09% 3.98% 25.91% 50.43% 75.73% 72.49%

Method Train Accuracy Test Accuracy Difference Test Error Sensitivity SpecifitySVM 80.20% 77.02% 3.18% 22.98% 83.59% 68.71%

CONCLUSION Fewer flights are delayed in April, May, June, September, October, November. Flights are less likely to arrive with delay when their departure time is between 20:00 and 05:00. Carriers with the most delayed minutes are AA (American Airlines), WN (Northwest Airline) and MQ (Envoy Air). airports with the most number of on-time flights are Atlanta, Phoenix and Kentucky Orlando, Atlanta, Dallas and Newark are the most congested airports

CONCLUSION In almost 77% of the cases, if there is a departure delay, then there is an arrival delay or if the departure is on-time, there is no arrival delay. Our phi coefficient is 0.53 So we can say departure delay is one of the positive influencing factors on arrival delay. After modeling with 3 methods, SVM is the winning method with 80.20% training accuracy and in 76.45% of the tests, the prediction of aircrafts arriving on-time or with delay, is correctly done. Our prediction accuracy could potentially improve if we include other strong influencing factors such as “weather”.

ANY QUESTIONS?

THANK YOU!