flacs-risk v1.1 (r1-3) · follows basic norsok z-013 methodology. flacs user group meeting 28 –29...
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FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
FLACS-Risk v1.1 (r1-3)
Djurre Siccama, Gexcon Software
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Outline
►What is FLACS-Risk?
►Brief overview of existing functionality(Basic workflow, Dispersion, Fire etc.)
►Overview of new functionality in FLACS-Risk v1.1 (r1-r3)
►A few case studies
►Q&A
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
What is FLACS-Risk?
► Add-on module for regular FLACS software► Efficient framework for setting-up simulations for:
▪ Non-risk based parametric studies▪ Risk based studies
► Tool that calculates both consequences and event frequencies► Allows visualisation of risk in 1D, 2D and 3D► Focussed on input to design (e.g. DiAL and DeAL)► Utilised the FLACS CFD Solver
► Versions:▪ 1.0 (Ventilation, Dispersion, Fires) (Released 13th March 2017)▪ 1.1 adds explosions and other improvements (Released 1st September 2017)▪ 1.1r2 Cloud file support for explosions (Released 24th September 2017)▪ 1.1r3 Performance improvement & FLACS-Cloud (Release planned December 2017)
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Key benefits of FLACS-Risk
►Reduce lead time for running either
▪ Non-risk based parametric studies
▪ Risk based studies
►Novel 3D Risk visualisation technique (allows visualising special distribution)
►Uses validated FLACS CFD Solver
►Project based vs individual scenario file based
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Brief overview of existing functionality v1.05
(Released 31st March 2017)
► Project based (vs individual scenarios in regular FLACS)► UX focussed GUI► Gas and liquid dispersion► Gas phase jet fires and liquid pool fires► Release modelling
▪ Steady state (either indefinite or time limited)▪ Transient releases for gas phase
► Automatic grid refinement► Can stop dispersion simulations when steady state has been reached► Aimed at input to design (e.g. DiAL and DeAL)► Calculate lethality for toxic and fire exposure (based on probit function)► 1D, 2D and 3D risk visualisation► Boxplots to compare results when doing parametric studies
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Main interface (1)
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Main interface (2)
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Overview: Running simulations
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
New key concepts in FLACS-Risk: Metadata instead of jobnumber logic
x1xxxxx is Natural gasx2xxxxx is Propane
xxxxxx0 is leak in +Xxxxxxx1 is leak in -X
Conventional FLACS method (using jobnumber logic)
Composition: MethaneComposition: Propane
Leak Direction: +XLeak Direction: -X
Geometry: Base_GeometryGeometry: Geo_Larger_Vents
FLACS-Risk (using metadata)
X X
Etc.
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
New key concepts in FLACS-Risk: Metadata instead of jobnumber logic
In scenarios file:%!TAGS="Geometry%3Dco010100.dat3%2CIgnition%3DAlways ignite%2CIso section and leak rate%3D1G %2F 96 kg%2…….%!FREQUENCY=0.025
In scenarios file:%!TAGS=“ Geometry=co010100.dat3,
Ignition=Always ignite,Iso section and leak rate=1G / 96 kg/s,Leak=Leak Leak 1,Leak direction=Dir +Z,Refine=Refine grid,Root=Project,Scenario=scenario 0,Wind=Wind 45/2FPSO Flare rerun (far field),Risk"
%!FREQUENCY=0.025
URL decoder to convert special characters(e.g. https://www.urldecoder.org/ )
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Updating existing python scripts to benefit from metadata in post processing
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Example Reporting: Box plots for parametric studies
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Example Reporting: Box plots for parametric studies(with scenario details for outliers)
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Example Reporting: Risk Contours
1D
2D
3D
▪ 1D “exceedance curves” for specified targets (e.g. fire walls, equipment etc)
▪ 2D and 3D risk visualisation (showing spacialdistribution of risk based loads)
▪ Show contributions from different events and/or scenario properties (e.g. gas type, release rate etc.)
Freq
uen
cy[1
/yr]
Overpressure [barg]
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
New functionality in FLACS-Risk v1.1(Released 1st September 2017)
► Coupled project (ventilation + dispersion)► Explosions
• Equivalent stoichiometric cloud• Real dispersion cloud explosions• OLF ignition model• Semi-automated gridding for explosions• Pressure relief panels
► Project version control by snapshots.► Additional presentation templates
► What’s included?▪ FLACS-Risk Installation files (same package as FLACS v10.6r2)▪ Example risk projects▪ FLACS-Risk user manual
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
New functionality in FLACS-Risk v1.1r3(Release planned December 2017)
►Performance improvements
▪ FLACS-Risk Stress testing:
• 13000 FLACS scenarios
• 200mb geometry
• 7000 monitor points
• 7000 panels
• 100 monitor regions
►FLACS-CLOUD support
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Coupled project (ventilation + dispersion)
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Explosions (Equivalent Stoichiometric clouds)
►Follows basic Norsok Z-013 methodology
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Explosions (Real dispersion cloud explosions)
►Goal: Streamline exploding of real dispersion clouds and allow use in risk studies
►Steps:
▪ Automatically import and resample dispersion cloud
▪ User select dispersion cloud time for ignition
▪ Automatically finds ignition points at boundary of real cloud (where ER = 0.75-1.25)
▪ Generate explosion scenarios
▪ Run simulation
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Explosions (Real dispersion cloud explosions)
►1. Run Dispersion cases
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Explosions (Real dispersion cloud explosions)
►2. Evaluate results
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Explosions (Real dispersion cloud explosions)
►3. Setup explosion simulations and link dispersion cloud. FLACS-Risk will automatically find 6 ignition points at boundary of cloud where ER= 0.75 – 1.25
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Explosions (Real dispersion cloud explosions)
►3. Run simulations
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Explosions (Real dispersion cloud explosions)
►4. Evaluate explosion results
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Explosions (OLF ignition probility model)
►Basic OLF ignition probability model implementation
►Steps in FLACS-Risk:▪ Run dispersion simulations▪ Set OLF parameters and export ignition probabilities outputs= >• Combined intermediate file with ignited cloud frequencies• Intermediate file (for each scenario) ignition summary (for QA purposes)
▪ Setup explosion simulations (including desired cloud size categories)▪ Import ignited cloud frequency file• Frequencies are automatically set for each cloud size category
𝑃𝑖𝑔𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑒(𝑡) = 𝑃𝑖𝑓−𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐 ∙ 𝑉𝑛𝑒𝑤(𝑡) ∙ 𝐹𝑑(𝑡)
𝑃𝑖𝑔𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡 𝑡 = 𝑃𝑖𝑓−𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡 ∙ 𝑉𝐿𝐹𝐿:𝑈𝐹𝐿(𝑡) ∙ 𝐹𝑐(𝑡)
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Explosions (OLF ignition probility model)
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Explosions (OLF ignition model)(verification using example from MISOF report)
0.00E+00
2.00E-04
4.00E-04
6.00E-04
8.00E-04
1.00E-03
1.20E-03
1.40E-03
0 50 100 150 200
Ignition probability model verification (Continuous ignition)
Pc (data from MISOF report) Pc (from FLACS-Risk)
0.00E+00
2.00E-05
4.00E-05
6.00E-05
8.00E-05
1.00E-04
1.20E-04
1.40E-04
1.60E-04
1.80E-04
2.00E-04
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Ignition probability model verification (Discrete ignition)
Pd (data from MISOF report) Pd (from FLACS-Risk [5s step])
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Explosions (Semi-automated gridding for explosions)
► Automatic steps in FLACS-Risk
1. Find grid sizes compatible with module dimensions and cubical (within +-10%)
2. Identify largest grid size from list above that satisfies (conservative) grid requirements for gas cloud
▪ At least 13 cells horizontally (valid for any type of confinement)
▪ At least 10 cell vertically (valid for at least confinement on one side)
3. Apply homogenous cubical grid size to module area and 5 cells outside
4. Stretch domain beyond cubical area
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Explosions (Semi-automated gridding for explosions)
Module28m x 12m x 8 m
Gas cloud15m x 10m x 7.5m
In this caseFLACS-Risk suggested grid: 0.757m x 0.750m x 0.750mGives respectively 20, 13 and 10 cells across cloud
Cubical core gridStretched grid
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Explosions (Semi-automated gridding for explosions)
►LIMITATIONS:►Automatic gridding will not work in the following
situations!(But grid can be modified manually within FLACS-Risk)▪ Multiple decks or walls that need to be aligned to the grid▪ If the walls that need to be aligned do not match defined
module boundary.▪ If the cloud is not bounded in vertical direction on any side
(this is very unusual, as in most cases a cloud will be modelled either on the ground or deck or underneath a roof.
▪ Equally spaced repeated objects▪ Hydrogen specific grids (due to the high reactivity of hydrogen
a finer grid is required)
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Explosions Pressure relief panels (1)
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Explosions Pressure relief panels (2)
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Project version control by snapshots.
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Additional presentation templates
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Future developments►Incorporating more methodology to
reduce number of required FLACS simulations => NORSOK etc.
►Analytical FLACS pseudo solver => visualisation in Flowvis/Risk?▪ TNO ME▪ Disperison▪ Fire
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Selected Case studies
►FPSO
▪ Flare parametric study
▪ FPSO ERA
►LNG Pool dispersion risk study
►Toxic dispersion risk study
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Case studies: FPSO Explosion risk study (screening)
► Generic FPSO
► 1. FPSO Flare parametric study▪ Wind conditions: 8
▪ Flare vent rates: 4 • 96 kg/s (=346 metric tons / hour)
• 192 kg/s
• 384 kg/s
• 768 kg/s
▪ 32 Scenarios
▪ Calculation time (approx. 4 hours)
► 2. Explosion risk study (quick screening)▪ Single module
▪ Propane
▪ 3 Cloud sizes 500 m3, 1000 m3 and 2700 m3
▪ 25 scenarios
▪ Calculation time (approx. 3-5 hours)
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Case studies: FPSO Flare parametric study
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Case studies: FPSO Explosion risk study
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Case studies: FPSO Explosion risk study
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Case studies: FPSO Explosion risk study
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Case studies: LNG Pool dispersion risk study
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Case studies: Toxic dispersion risk study
► Onshore facility► Different releases 7.5barg pressure, propane (two
different isolatable sections, one with 5% H2S and one with 3% H2S)
► 16 Wind condition combinations modelled► 7 Leak locations / 15 Leak hole size/location combinations
modelled (22mm, 70mm and 150mm) – steady state releases
► Assumed steady state release and simulation time 100s► Lethality calculated using one of the default TNO Probit
function in FLACS-Risk► Total combinations 1,440 (e.g. FLACS simulations)► Calculation time: approx. 2 days on a small cluster (200
cpu’s)
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Case studies: Toxic dispersion risk study
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
How to get FLACS-Risk
►Until 31st December 2017 we offer:
▪ Special introductory price for the FLACS-Risk add-on
▪ Free 1-month trial of FLACS-Risk add-on for existing FLACS users*
* With a valid FLACS license
►For any questions related to FLACS-Risk (including pricing) contact us at [email protected]
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Summary
This presented covered:
► What is FLACS-Risk► Key benefits of FLACS-Risk► Existing and new features in
FLACS-Risk v1.1► Selected case studies► How to get FLACS-Risk
► For any questions related to FLACS-Risk contact us at [email protected]
FLACS User Group Meeting 28 – 29 Nov 2017, London, UK
Questions?