fire in the news. daily statisti cs 7/10/02 year-to-date statistics 1/1/02 - 7/10/02 num ber of new...
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Fire in the news
The 2002 fire seasonHow does it compare?
Number of fires 67,128 10-year average 106,400
Total year 2000 122,827
Area burned (ha) 2,681,217 10-year average 1,666,672
Total year 2000 3,437,648
National Interagency Fire Center data, 28 October 2002)
Heard at recent meetings“Forests in the West are out of balance.”
“A century of fire suppression has destroyed the ecological resilience of forests.”
“Fuels have accumulated to catastrophic proportions.”
“We need to reintroduce fire to maintain healthy forests.”
“We need to thin our forests to restore their health and reduce fire hazard.”
“Management should focus on bringing forests back to a natural fire regime.”
Restoring the Role of Fire in Forest Ecosystems
Will the Smoke Get in Our Eyes?
David L. PetersonUSDA Forest Service
Pacifi c Northwest Research StationSeattle, WA
Traditional perspective:pyrophobia
Revisionist perspective:pyrophilia
Current conditions Target conditions
Burning
Thinning
From Allen et al. (2001)
Reconstruction of fire occurrence
Tools for reducing fire hazard
Mechanical thinning
Prescribed burning
DO FUEL TREATMENTS REDUCE THE RISK OF CROWN FIRE?
5% of fires burn 95% of the area
Few data that quantify how fuel treatments alter fire behavior
Few guidelines on kinds and level of fuel reduction needed to reduce crown fire under severe fire weather
Assumptions about fire and fuels “Historic data show that wildfires are getting larger and becoming more intense.” – Forest Service Southwest Region web site
Assumption 1: Fires are larger and more severe than prior to the 20th century
Assumption 2: The size and intensity of wildfires are controlled by fuel accumulations
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
200019901980197019601950194019301920
To
tal F
ires
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
To
tal A
rea
Bu
rned
(h
a)
* Data for 1920-1960 are based on decadal averages
Total fires
Area burned
Wildland Fires in the United States1920 - 2000
Source: National Interagency Fire Center database
What causes large and severe fires?
Influence of climatic variability on fire
Large fires in the Canadian Rockies are caused by high pressure blocking systems (Johnson & Wowchuck 1993)
Forest fire behavior is determined primarily by weather variation among years rather than fuel variation associated with stand age (Bessie & Johnson 1995)
Regional increases in wildfire extent in the Pacific Northwest are associated with the formation of a high-pressure blocking ridge over western North America throughout the fire season (Gedalof et al., in prep.)
Years with fi res > 80,000 ha
From Mote et al. (1999)
Cool PDO Warm PDO
Annual area burned – 11 Western states
Source: National I nteragency Fire Center
Rapid fire spread and crown fire behavior occur during severe fire weather conditions
Hayman Creek Fire
Temperature 32-38 C
Relative humidity 10-20%
Winds 50+ kph
Embers carried 5 km
Managing fire and fuels is mostly a sociocultural challenge
Federal fire suppression cost in 2000 = $1.3 billion ($500 per ha burned)
Colorado wildland-urban interface
Rocky Mountain NewsTowns in harm’s way grew in 90’sIncrease put people in danger from Hayman Fire
By Burt Hubbard, News Staff WriterJune 13, 2002
The foothills communities most threatened by the Hayman Fire were growing faster than most of Colorado in the 1990’s, putting thousands more people in harm’s way.
The areas facing evacuation from the Hayman Fire added about 7,000 residents and 3,000 homes during the decade.
And the area became home to more year-round residents as the percentage of seasonal housing fell, according to the U.S. Census data.
The restoration task
Fire condition class – fire regime
GREEN = Near historical range
YELLOW = Moderately altered
RED = Significantly altered
What is the historical context for restoration?
vs.
Does it matter?
Making decisions: Which values do we want to protect?
Houses and structures
Timber
Water quality
Air quality
Wildlife
Recreation
(Or maybe we just like open forests)
Many constraints to effective fuel treatments
Need lots of tree removal
Lack of markets for small wood
EIS, EA and other review
Litigation
Risk of escaped fire
Scheduling (~20-year cycle)
Additional constraints
Air quality
People don’t like smoke
Regulatory issues
Carbon emissions
Emissions from burning
Wood processing waste
Can Smokey coexist with the friendly flame?
A rational approach to fire management and fuel reduction: Focus on the wildland-urban interface
Benefits
Focus fuel treatment area
Protect high economic value
Reduce liability
Reduce fire suppression cost
Respond to political concern
Create defensible zones
Urban and exurban firebreaks
“Only ewes can preventforest fire”
How do we manage fuels at large spatial scales?
Wilderness NO TREATMENT
Private landNO FUELSMultiple values
LOW TREATMENT
InterfaceMOD. TREATMENT
Firebreak
Toward science-based firemanagement and policy
Develop guidelines that quantify the effects of fuel treatments on fire behavior
Integrate scientific information and human values(ecological + cultural restoration)
Develop a rational economic approach
Educate the public on living with fire
Restoring the Role of Fire in Forest Ecosystems
Will the Smoke Get in Our Eyes?
David L. PetersonUSDA Forest Service
Pacifi c Northwest Research StationSeattle, WA
THANK YOU!
David L. [email protected] ed.us
206.732.7812http:/ / www.f s.fed.us/ pnw/ fera