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Financial Analysis Report Project Team: Carla RAMIREZ Ma,hias HÜBENER Daniel ROMO Financial Statements Analysis Class Professor: Fahmi BENABDELKADER

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Page 1: Financial’Analysis’Report’ - Freefahmi.ba.free.fr/docs/Courses/FSA cases best of/2015_Lufthansa_case.pdfFinancial’Analysis’Report’ ProjectTeam: CarlaRAMIREZ% Mahias%HÜBENER

Financial  Analysis  Report  

Project  Team:  Carla  RAMIREZ  

Ma,hias  HÜBENER  Daniel  ROMO  

Financial  Statements  Analysis  Class  Professor:  Fahmi  BEN-­‐ABDELKADER  

Page 2: Financial’Analysis’Report’ - Freefahmi.ba.free.fr/docs/Courses/FSA cases best of/2015_Lufthansa_case.pdfFinancial’Analysis’Report’ ProjectTeam: CarlaRAMIREZ% Mahias%HÜBENER

Table  of  Contents  

Strategic  and  Economic  Assessment    3  –  9  

Growth  Analysis        10  –  16  

Profitability  Analysis        17  –  22  

Risk  Analysis          23  –  26  

Conclusions          27  –  29  

Page 3: Financial’Analysis’Report’ - Freefahmi.ba.free.fr/docs/Courses/FSA cases best of/2015_Lufthansa_case.pdfFinancial’Analysis’Report’ ProjectTeam: CarlaRAMIREZ% Mahias%HÜBENER

   

Strategic  and  Economic  Assessment  

Page 4: Financial’Analysis’Report’ - Freefahmi.ba.free.fr/docs/Courses/FSA cases best of/2015_Lufthansa_case.pdfFinancial’Analysis’Report’ ProjectTeam: CarlaRAMIREZ% Mahias%HÜBENER

Overview  of  Deutsche  LuWhansa  AG  

4  

Passenger  Airline  Group   75.4%  

Logis]cs   8.0%  

Maintenance  &  Repair  Services   8.9%  

Catering   6.8%  

IT  Services   0.9%  

Lu:hansa’s  business  segments  in  %  of  group  revenue  2014:  

Financial  Analysis  Report  

•  Deutsche   LuWhansa   AG   is   a   German   airline   and   holding  company   for   several   other   airlines   and   further   avia]on-­‐related  companies  (see  graphic).  

•  Combined   with   its   subsidiaries,   its   fleet   of   over   615  passenger   aircraW   belongs   to   the   largest   fleets   in   the  world,  connec]ng  321  des]na]ons  in  107  countries.  

•  LuWhansa  is  the  largest  European  airline  both  in  terms  of  overall  passenger  volume  and  fleet  size.  

•  LuWhansa   has   established   a  premium  brand   posiJon   in  quality  and  safety,  catering  to  business  travellers’  needs.  

•  In   2014,   LuWhansa   carried  over  105  million  passengers,  reported  group  revenue  of  30  billion  Euro  and  had  more  than  118,000  employees  on  its  payroll.  

•  LuWhansa   was   founded   in   1953   as   a   state-­‐owned  enterprise  and  was  subsequently  priva]zed  in  1994.  

Page 5: Financial’Analysis’Report’ - Freefahmi.ba.free.fr/docs/Courses/FSA cases best of/2015_Lufthansa_case.pdfFinancial’Analysis’Report’ ProjectTeam: CarlaRAMIREZ% Mahias%HÜBENER

LuWhansa’s  Recent  Business  Performance  

•  In  2013  LuWhansa’s  low-­‐cost  airline  Germanwings  started  to  operate  all  domes]c  flights  formerly  serviced  by  LuWhansa  except  those  from  the  main  hubs  in  Frankfurt  and  Munich.  

•  LuWhansa  has  been  heavily  invesJng  in  its  fleet  and  ordered  59  wide-­‐body  and  over  100  narrow-­‐body  aircraW  in  2013  alone.  

•  LuWhansa  had  to  handle  prolonged  labor  issues  over  compensa]on  and  re]rement  benefits  over  the  last  years,  leading  to  frequent  disrup]ons  of  flight  schedules.  

•  In  the  last  ten  years,  Lu:hansa  didn’t  pay  any  dividend  in  2009,  2012  and  2014  because  of  nega]ve  results.  

5  Financial  Analysis  Report  

Recent  business  development   Lu:hansa  in  2014  

•  LuWhansa  faced  enormous  compeJJve  pressure  from  low-­‐cost  carriers  in  Europe  as  well  as  from  state-­‐owned  Gulf  airlines  on  routes  to  Asia  leading  to  declining  average  yields.  

•  Large-­‐scale  strikes  by  LuWhansa’s  pilots  had  a  significant  impact  on  business  performance.    

•  Exchange  change  rate  effects  depressed  LuWhansa’s  opera]ng  result.  

•  Falling  oil  prices  reduced  LuWhansa’s  fuel  costs,  but  also  affected  its  fuel  hedges.  

•  Falling  interest  rates  led  to  an  increase  in  pension  liabili]es.    

•  A  new  CEO  came  into  office  in  May  2014.  

Page 6: Financial’Analysis’Report’ - Freefahmi.ba.free.fr/docs/Courses/FSA cases best of/2015_Lufthansa_case.pdfFinancial’Analysis’Report’ ProjectTeam: CarlaRAMIREZ% Mahias%HÜBENER

2  Year  Stock  Price  Evolu]on  (Ending  22.12.2015)  

6  Financial  Analysis  Report  

Deutsche  LuWhansa  (LHA.DE)  AirFrance-­‐KLM  (AF.PA)  

Page 7: Financial’Analysis’Report’ - Freefahmi.ba.free.fr/docs/Courses/FSA cases best of/2015_Lufthansa_case.pdfFinancial’Analysis’Report’ ProjectTeam: CarlaRAMIREZ% Mahias%HÜBENER

Change  in  Accoun]ng  Policies  

•  For   this   analysis   it   is   relevant   to   consider   recent   changes   in  accoun]ng  policies   introduced  by   LuWhansa,  which  have  affected  net  results.  

•  One  of  the  most  relevant  changes  were  made  in  2013  to  DepreciaJon  and  AmorJzaJon  policies.  

7  Financial  Analysis  Report  

Specifically,    the  useful  lives  of  aircra4  and  reserve  engines  was  extended   from   12   to   20   years   and   their   residual   value   was  reduced  from  15%  to  5%.  

•  These  changes  have  arJficially  boosted  EBIT  and  thus  all  conJngent  results.  •  However,  this  should  also  have  a  negaJve  effect  on  Lu:hansa’s  tax  shield  and  result  in  reduced  future  cash  flows.  

Page 8: Financial’Analysis’Report’ - Freefahmi.ba.free.fr/docs/Courses/FSA cases best of/2015_Lufthansa_case.pdfFinancial’Analysis’Report’ ProjectTeam: CarlaRAMIREZ% Mahias%HÜBENER

Airline  Industry  Overview  

8  Financial  Analysis  Report  

CompeJJve  environment  

•  Highly   compe]]ve   business   environment   due   to  general  overcapaci]es  in  the  market,  compe]]on  from  low-­‐cost  carriers  and  state-­‐subsidized  Gulf  airlines.  

•  Industry   profitability   is   generally   negaJve   (ROCE   –  WACC  between  1990  and  2010:  -­‐  2.1%).  

Developments  in  the  industry  

•  Air   travel   has   basically   become   a   commodity   –   in  economy,   there   is   almost   no   room   for   differen]a]on,  so  compeJJon  is  mostly  on  cost.  Only  in  business  and  first  class  there  is  room  for  higher  margins.  

•  As   a   result,   new   low-­‐cost   carriers   compete   with  established  airlines  that  face  significant  legacy  costs.  

Industry  consolidaJon  

•  There  is  a  general  trend  towards  consolida]on:  Already  mostly   finished   in   the  US,   but   currently   under  way   in  Europe  (would  improve  the  pricing  environment).  

•  Some   large  mergers   have   already   taken  place,   e.g.   Air  France  –  KLM  or  Bri]sh  Airways  –  Iberia  –  Vueling.  

General  characterisJcs  

•  The   business   is   cyclical   and   depends   on   the   global  economic  environment.  

•  Long-­‐term  growth  industry:  passenger-­‐kilometers  have  been  rising  on  average  by  5.9%  per  year.  

•  Disparate   growth   development   in   the   world   (Europe  and  USA  vs.  emerging  markets).  

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What  do  we  expect  to  see?  

The   airline   industry   has   certain   characteris]cs   that  we  believe   should  manifest   themselves   in   the   financial   statements.  Before  carrying  out  our  assessment,  among  other  things  we  are  expec]ng  the  following:  

•  Low  margins  due  to  a  highly  compe]]ve  environment.  

•  High  asset  turnover  to  compensate  for  said  low  margins.  

•  High  relevance  of  Fixed  Assets  in  the  Balance  Sheet.  •  Low  inventory  levels,  because  airlines  offer  a  service.  •  Due  to  record  low  oil  prices,  we  expect  a  decrease  in  opera]ng  costs  of  sales.  •  Some  issues  with  pensions  or  other  labor-­‐related  topics,  due  to  recent  turmoil  with  airline  workers,  and  pressure  from  low-­‐cost  Airlines  with  rela]vely  lower  labor  costs.  

•  A  high  financial  leverage  ra]o  due  to  most  airplane  purchases  being  made  with  debt.  

9  Financial  Analysis  Report  

Page 10: Financial’Analysis’Report’ - Freefahmi.ba.free.fr/docs/Courses/FSA cases best of/2015_Lufthansa_case.pdfFinancial’Analysis’Report’ ProjectTeam: CarlaRAMIREZ% Mahias%HÜBENER

Growth  Analysis  

Page 11: Financial’Analysis’Report’ - Freefahmi.ba.free.fr/docs/Courses/FSA cases best of/2015_Lufthansa_case.pdfFinancial’Analysis’Report’ ProjectTeam: CarlaRAMIREZ% Mahias%HÜBENER

Wealth  Crea]on  (1/2)  

•  Net   Sales   have   slowed   down   aWer   2012   to   near   0%  growth  rates  in  2013  and  2014.  

•  This  is  in  accordance  with  the  industry  performance.  

•  It  is  important  to  men]on  that  revenue  drop  is  not  due  to  a   fall   in  sales  volume  (+2.4%)  nor   in  the  number  of  passengers  (+1.3%),  which  have  in  fact  increased.  

•  LuWhansa   faced   intense   and   increasing   compe]]on  during   the   past   years,   which   has   lead   to   the   need   for  LuWhansa  to  lower  prices  (-­‐2.7%).  

•  At   the   same   ]me   EBITDA   is   going   down   over   Jme,  which   suggest   a   cost   increase   at   a   higher   rate   than  revenues.  

•  Net  Income  was  slightly  negaJve  in  2011,  and  has  been  extremely  vola]le  in  recent  years.  

11  

Growth  rate CAGR Net  Sales 2.55% Total  Assets 0.78% EBITDA -­‐5.60% Net  Income -­‐45%

-­‐30%  

-­‐20%  

-­‐10%  

0%  

10%  

20%  

30%  

40%  

50%  

2011   2012   2013   2014  

Yearly  Percentage  Va

ria]o

n  

Growth  Rate  Evolu]on  

Net  Sales   Total  Assets   EBITDA  

Financial  Analysis  Report  

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Wealth  Crea]on  (2/2)  

•  According  to  data  from  the  Interna]onal  Air  Transport  Associa]on  (IATA),  jet  fuel  has  represented  on  average  31%  of  the  total  costs  of  member  airlines  during  the  past  4  years.    

•  For  this  reason,  it  will  be  important  to  keep  an  eye  in  the  evolu]on  of  oil  prices.  The  latest  forecast  put  forward  by  the  IATA  indicates  that  the  yearly  average  for  2015  will  be  $78  per  barrel,  in  sharp  contrast  with  the  past  4  years,  which  averaged  $118  per  barrel.  

•  The   sustained   growth   in   number   of   passengers   observed   for   LuWhansa   is   consistent   with   industry   sta]s]cs,   which  evidences  a  sustained  and  even  accelera]ng  growth  in  passenger-­‐kilometers  flown.  

12  

 $-­‐    

 $50    

 $100    

 $150    

2010   2011   2012   2013   2014E   2015F  

Jet  Kerosene  Prices  in  USD/Barrel  (IATA  )  

4%  

6%  

8%  

10%  

2010   2011   2012   2013   2014E   2015F  

Industry-­‐Wide  Passenger  APK  Yearly  Growth  

Total  Revenues  

Financial  Analysis  Report  

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Investment  Policy  

•  Capital  Employed  has  remained  rela]vely  constant  during  the  years,  however  there  was  a  significant  increase  during  2014.  

•  As  Opera]ng  Working  Capital  has  also  remained  rela]vely  stable,   the   increase   in  Capital   Employed   is   linked   to  an  increase  in  Fixed  Assets.  

•  This  suggests  that  LuWhansa  has  invested  considerably  on  its  fleet  and  other  fixed  assets.  

•  This   was   confirmed   by   LuWhansa’s   fleet   data,   which  registered   that   a   total   of   12   long-­‐haul   aircraW   were  delivered   in   2014.  During   the   same   year,   29  more  were  ordered.  

•  As  was   expected   for   an  Airline,   Lu:hansa   considers   its  fleet  to  be  the  largest  asset  on  its  balance  sheet.  

13  

-­‐6,000  €  -­‐3,000  €  

0  €  3,000  €  6,000  €  9,000  €  12,000  €  15,000  €  18,000  €  21,000  €  24,000  €  

2010   2011   2012   2013   2014  

Aggregates  Evolu]on  

Fixed  Assets   Opera]ng  Working  Capital   Capital  Employed  

Assets  Analysis 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Fixed  Assets  /  Total  Assets 64.7% 66.3% 65.8% 66.7% 72.9% Inventory  /  Total  Assets 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3% Accounts  Receivable  /  Total  Assets 11.9% 12.7% 12.9% 12.6% 13.5% Cash  &  Equivalent  /  Total  Assets 20.0% 15.7% 18.1% 17.7% 10.5%

Financial  Analysis  Report  

Page 14: Financial’Analysis’Report’ - Freefahmi.ba.free.fr/docs/Courses/FSA cases best of/2015_Lufthansa_case.pdfFinancial’Analysis’Report’ ProjectTeam: CarlaRAMIREZ% Mahias%HÜBENER

Financial  Resources  (1/2)  

•  While  analyzing  Invested  Capital,  a  significant  increase  in  net  financial  debt  is  iden]fied  for  2014.  

•  It  is  important  to  men]on  that  debt  in  this  case  considers  “Provision   for   Risk   and   Charges”   (PRC),   which   when  included   in  this  analysis,  and   in  par]cular  the  es]ma]on  of   the   Leverage  Ra]o,   can  be   considered  a   conserva]ve  approach.  

•  This   is  because  PRC   is   a   long   term   liability  which  can  be  considered  debt,  but  is  not  interest  bearing  debt.  

•  Having   explained   this,   Lu:hansa’s   debt   has   increased  mainly  because  of  PRC,  which  has  risen  due  to  pension  liabiliJes  being  pushed  up  by  falling  interest  rates.  

•  Also   notable   is   that   equity   is   diminishing,   possibly  because  of  poor  past  performance  aliena]ng  investors.  

•  Both  of   these  effects  are  reflected   in   leverage  and  debt-­‐to-­‐capital  ra]os.    

14  

13,000  €  

14,000  €  

15,000  €  

16,000  €  

17,000  €  

18,000  €  

0  €  

5,000  €  

10,000  €  

15,000  €  

20,000  €  

2010   2011   2012   2013   2014  

Invested  Capital  

Shareholders'  Equity   Net  Financial  Debt   Invested  Capital  

Financial  Resources   2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Leverage  Ra]o 75.2% 80.5% 201.9% 138.4% 324.2% Debt-­‐to-­‐capital  ra]o 42.9% 44.6% 66.9% 58.1% 76.4% Long-­‐term  debt  /  Total  Liabili]es 29.7% 29.0% 25.1% 21.0% 20.3% Short-­‐term  debt  /  Total  Liabili]es 4.7% 3.2% 4.1% 6.8% 3.0% Accounts  payable  /  Total  Liabili]es 13.8% 14.0% 11.7% 13.2% 11.1%

Financial  Analysis  Report  

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Financial  Resources  (2/2)  

•  Looking  at  the  composi]on  of  Gross  Financial  Debt,  we  observe   that   PRC   has   historically   represented   a  significant  percentage  of  it.    

•  During   2014   PRC   represented   48%   of   gross   financial  debt.  

•  For   this   reason,   if   we   remove   the   PRC   from   Debt  Analysis,  the  results  are  much  less  alarming.  

15  

0  €  

5,000  €  

10,000  €  

15,000  €  

20,000  €  

2010   2011   2012   2013   2014  

Gross  Financial  Debt  

ST  Debt  &  Current  Por]on  of  LT  Debt   Long  Term  Debt  

Provision  for  Risks  &  Charges   Deferred  Income  

Deferred  Tax  Liabili]es   Other  Liabili]es  

Financial  Resources  without  PRC   2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Net  Financial  Debt  without  PRC 5,235 3,142 3,343 3,731 3,056 Financial  Leverage  without  PRC 129.9% 51.4% 69.1% 46.4% 36.6% Debt-­‐to-­‐capital  ra]o  without  PRC 56.5% 34.0% 40.9% 32.0% 26.8%

Financial  Analysis  Report  

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Cash  Cycle  Analysis  

•  As   expected   from   the   low   inventory   levels   observed,  LuWhansa  holds  inventory  for  a  very  short  period.  

•  Both   receivable   and   payable   days   work   against  Lu:hansa:  they  are  becoming  less  effec]ve  in  collec]ng  from  their  clients,  although  sales  are  not  decreasing.    

•  On  the  other  hand,  LuWhansa  is  gesng  less  days  to  pay  back   their   suppliers,   again   possibly   because   of   their  poor  past  performance.  

•  Overall,   the   cycle   is   working   against   them:   it   is  becoming  a  “get  cash  later,  pay  earlier”  approach  that  has  almost  doubled  in  recent  years.    

16  Financial  Analysis  Report  

Cash  Flow  Analysis   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014  Cash  From  Opera]ng  Ac]vi]es  (I)   2.992   2.356   2.842   3.290   1.977  Cash  From  Inves]ng  Ac]vi]es  (II)   -­‐1.450   -­‐1.643   -­‐1.445   -­‐1.983   -­‐2.274  Free  Cash  Flow  (I+II)   1.542   713   1.397   1.307   -­‐297  

Cash  Cycle  Analysis   2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Inventory  days  (DIO) 11 10 9 9 10 +  Receivable  days  (DSO) 48 45 45 45 50 -­‐  Payable  Days  (DPO) 50 44 41 45 44 =  OperaJng  Working  Capital  days  worth  of  sales 9 11 13 9 17

•  FCF  was   posi]ve   in   all   but   the   last   year,   indica]ng   that  LuWhansa  was  able  to  cover  its  investment  needs  with  its  cash   flow   from   opera]ons.   In   2014,   FCF   dropped  markedly  and  changed  sign  to  become  negaJve.  

•  In  2014,  we  observe  both  reduced  CFO  due  to  the  new  depreciaJon   method   for   aircra:   and   adverse   business  performance.  

•  Furthermore,   the  heavy   investment   program   started   is  reflected  in  a  steep  increase  in  CFI  from  2013  onwards.    

Page 17: Financial’Analysis’Report’ - Freefahmi.ba.free.fr/docs/Courses/FSA cases best of/2015_Lufthansa_case.pdfFinancial’Analysis’Report’ ProjectTeam: CarlaRAMIREZ% Mahias%HÜBENER

Profitability  Analysis  

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Common-­‐Size  Income  Statement  Analysis  

18  Financial  Analysis  Report  

•  Both  Cost  of  Sales  and  OperaJng  Expenses  have  been  growing   over   the   last   five   years.   Consequently,   the  Gross  Margin  and  EBITDA  Margin  have  been  declining.    

•  Despite  the  strong  tailwind  from  the  new  depreciaJon  method  for  aircra:,   there  was  a  marked  decline   in   the  EBIT  margin.  

•  We  conclude  that  Lu:hansa  faces  strong  cost  pressure  and  shows  a  negaJve  scissors  effect.  

•  LuWhansa   seems   to   have   started   with   a   cost   cusng  program   in   2012   as   Opera]ng   Expenses   significantly  drop  but  cost  management  sJll   seems  poor  given   that  Opera]ng  Expenses  have  been  increasing  again  by  over  20%   per   year   for   the   last   two   periods   (see   income  statement  trend  analysis  in  Excel).  

Profit  &  Expenses    as    Percent  of  Net  Revenue 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Net  Revenue 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Cost  of  Sales   79.5% 81.0% 81.5% 82.2% 81.3% Gross  Margin 20.5% 19.0% 18.5% 17.8% 18.7% Opera]ng  Expenses 9.0% 10.3% 7.0% 9.0% 11.1% EBITDA  Margin 11.5% 8.7% 11.5% 8.7% 7.6%

Deprecia]on  &  Amor]za]on 6.3% 6.0% 6.1% 5.9% 5.0% EBIT  Margin   5.2% 2.7% 5.4% 2.8% 2.6% Net  Financial  Expenses 1.3% 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 0.9% Pretax  Income 4.3% 1.6% 4.3% 1.8% 0.6% Corporate  Income  Tax -­‐0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.7% 0.3% Net  Profit  Margin 4.3% 0.0% 4.1% 1.0% 0.2%

NOPAT  Margin  5.2%   1.7%   5.0%   1.7%   1.1%  

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Return  on  Invested  Capital  and  EVA  

19  Financial  Analysis  Report  

•  The  ROIC  has  been  very  volaJle  over  the  years   largely  due   to   the   significant   fluctuaJon   of   the   NOPAT  margin.   This   fluctua]on   is   partly   explained   with  dras]cally  different  levels  of  the  effec]ve  corporate  tax  rate,   which   varied   between   0%   in   2010   and   58%   in  2014.  Moreover,  EBIT  itself  was  subject  to  large  swings.  

•  The   turnover   rate   of   capital   employed   was   stable  around  2   from  2011  and  2013  but   took  a  hit   in  2014,  reflecJng   the   poor   net   revenue   growth   performance  of   Lu:hansa,   combined   with   conJnuing   investment  (CapEx  /  Sales  has  been  around  8%  from  2010  to  2014).  

•  While   the   WACC   has   been   consistently   falling,  LuWhansa’s  ROIC  has  been  higher   than   the  WACC  only  in   2010   and   2012   and   thus   destroying   value   for   its  shareholders  in  all  but  two  years.  

ROIC  (Return  On  Invested  Capital) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 NOPAT  Margin 5.2% 1.7% 5.0% 1.7% 1.1%

*  Turnover  rate  of  Capital  employed 1.81 1.98 2.06 2.06 1.76

=  ROIC 9.5% 3.5% 10.3% 3.5% 1.9%

0%  

2%  

4%  

6%  

8%  

10%  

12%  

2010   2011   2012   2013   2014  

LuWhansa  Economic  Value  Added  

WACC  

ROIC  

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Peer  Comparison  with  Air  France  

20  Financial  Analysis  Report  

-­‐6%  -­‐3%  0%  3%  6%  9%  

12%  

2010   2011   2012   2013   2014  

ROIC  Comparison  

ROIC  LH   ROIC  AF  

-­‐4%  

-­‐2%  

0%  

2%  

4%  

6%  

2010   2011   2012   2013   2014  

Profit  Margin  Comparison  

NOPAT  LH   NOPAT  AF  

0.0  

0.5  

1.0  

1.5  

2.0  

2.5  

2010   2011   2012   2013   2014  

Turnover  Rate  Comparison  

Turnover  LH   Turnover  AF  

•  Lu:hansa’s  ROIC  is  generally  higher  than  that  of  Air  France.  

•  Only  in  2014,  Air  France  starts  to  outperform  LuWhansa.  

•  The  comparison  shows  that  the  NOPAT  margin  evolu]on  mirrors  the  ROIC.  While  the  NOPAT  margin  is  declining  for  Lu:hansa,  Air  France  has  seen  a  comeback  from  its  2013  nadir,  eventually  overtaking  its  compe]tor.  At  the  same  ]me,  Lu:hansa’s  turnover  rate,  which  was  iniJally  higher,  declined  last  year,  while  Air  France  has  con]nually  improved  its  rate  over  the  period.  

Page 21: Financial’Analysis’Report’ - Freefahmi.ba.free.fr/docs/Courses/FSA cases best of/2015_Lufthansa_case.pdfFinancial’Analysis’Report’ ProjectTeam: CarlaRAMIREZ% Mahias%HÜBENER

Return  on  Equity  and  Financial  Leverage  

21  Financial  Analysis  Report  

•  Lu:hansa’s   ROE   was   extremely   volaJle   due   to   the  overall     fluctua]on   in   business     performance   and   its  impact  on  the  bo,om  line.  

•  The  financial   leverage  effect  has   itself  been  of  varying  impact   but   has   contributed   posi]vely   in   all   years.   In  2012,  it  helped  to  propel  LuWhansa’s  ROE  by  13.7%.    

•  ROIC   minus   net   cost   of   debt   a:er   tax   has   been  posiJve   for   all   years,   indica]ng   that   the   company‘s  investments  have  been  genera]ng  a  sufficient  return.    

•  However,   given   that   financial   leverage   has   been  massively   building   up   from   75%   to   325%,   LuWhansa  has   to  be  careful  not   to   let   the  cost  of  debt  outweigh  it‘s   ROIC,   because   otherwise   the   financial   leverage  effect  will  drama]cally  swing  in  the  opposite  direc]on.  

Return  On  Equity 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ROE  (Return  On  Equity) 13.71% 0.05% 25.65% 5.34% 1.86%

Financial  Leverage  Effect 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ROIC 9.49% 3.45% 10.32% 3.49% 1.87% Net  cost  of  debt  (aWer  tax) 5.52% 2.88% 3.54% 2.44% 0.89% ROIC  -­‐  Net  cost  of  debt 3.97% 0.57% 6.78% 1.05% 0.98%  *  Financial  Leverage   75.18% 80.48% 201.88% 138.44% 324.16% =  Financial  Leverage  Effect 2.98% 0.46% 13.69% 1.45% 3.18%

Note:   As   we   were   conserva]ve   in   our   analysis   and   included   pension  liabili]es   in  net  debt  because  they  represent  a   long-­‐term  financial  burden,  this   approach   overes]mates   the   financial   leverage   effect   since   pension  liabili]es  are  not  interes]ng-­‐bearing  debt.  

Page 22: Financial’Analysis’Report’ - Freefahmi.ba.free.fr/docs/Courses/FSA cases best of/2015_Lufthansa_case.pdfFinancial’Analysis’Report’ ProjectTeam: CarlaRAMIREZ% Mahias%HÜBENER

Residual  Income  Analysis  and  Peer  Comparison  

22  Financial  Analysis  Report  

0%  

5%  

10%  

15%  

20%  

25%  

30%  

2010   2011   2012   2013   2014  

LuWhansa  Residual  Income  

ROE   Cost  of  Equity  

-­‐80%  

-­‐60%  

-­‐40%  

-­‐20%  

0%  

20%  

40%  

2010   2011   2012   2013   2014  

ROE  Comparison  

ROE  LH   ROE  AF  

•  LuWhansa  is  only  creaJng  value  for  its  shareholders  in  two  years  (2010  and  2012)  even  though  its  cost  of  equity  is  declining.  

•  Yet,  Lu:hansa’s  ROE  outperforms  Air  France.    The  posi]ve  ROE  of  Air  France  in  2014  is  in  fact  misleading  as  Air  France  had  both  nega]ve  net  income  and  nega]ve  shareholder’s  equity  in  2014.  

fahmi
Note
ROE with negative NI and equity is meaningless
Page 23: Financial’Analysis’Report’ - Freefahmi.ba.free.fr/docs/Courses/FSA cases best of/2015_Lufthansa_case.pdfFinancial’Analysis’Report’ ProjectTeam: CarlaRAMIREZ% Mahias%HÜBENER

Risk  Analysis  

Page 24: Financial’Analysis’Report’ - Freefahmi.ba.free.fr/docs/Courses/FSA cases best of/2015_Lufthansa_case.pdfFinancial’Analysis’Report’ ProjectTeam: CarlaRAMIREZ% Mahias%HÜBENER

Short-­‐term  Liquidity  Risk  

•  The  short-­‐term  liquidity  posi]on  of  LuWhansa  has  been  deteriora]ng  over  the  five  year  period.  

•  In  2013  and  2014,   LuWhansa   is  not  able   to  cover   their  Current  Liabili]es  with  Current  Assets.  The  main  reason  for   the   sharp   fall  was   a   reducJon  of   cash   and   short-­‐term  investments  by  around  €2bn  from  2013  to  2014.  The   money   was   mainly   used   to   reimburse   long-­‐term  obliga]ons   and   other   financing   ac]vi]es.   This   also  explains  the  dras]c  decline  of  the  Cash  ra]o  in  2014.  

•  The   latest  decline  of  the  CFO  to  short-­‐term  debt  raJo  is  partly  explained  by  decreasing  CFO  due  to  the  new  deprecia]on   method   for   aircraW   as   well   as   low   net  income  for  the  last  repor]ng  period.  

•  In  conclusion,  short  term  liquidity  could  be  at  risk.  

24  Financial  Analysis  Report  

Short-­‐term  liquidity  raJos 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Current  ra]o 105,4% 96,6% 100,4% 88,4% 75,2% Quick  ra]o 98,7% 90,3% 93,8% 82,6% 68,8% Cash  ra]o 59,7% 45,1% 53,2% 47,1% 29,1% CFO  to  short-­‐term  debt  ra]o 30,5% 24,1% 29,2% 30,0% 18,0%

0%  

20%  

40%  

60%  

80%  

100%  

120%  

2010   2011   2012   2013   2014  

Current  ra]o   Quick  ra]o   Cash  ra]o   CFO  to  short-­‐term  debt  ra]o  

Page 25: Financial’Analysis’Report’ - Freefahmi.ba.free.fr/docs/Courses/FSA cases best of/2015_Lufthansa_case.pdfFinancial’Analysis’Report’ ProjectTeam: CarlaRAMIREZ% Mahias%HÜBENER

Long-­‐term  Liquidity  Risk  (1/2)  

•  As   previously   explained,   financial   leverage   has   more  than   quadrupled   due   to   low   interest   rates   pushing   up  LuWhansa’s  pension  liabili]es.  

•  While  it  appears  that  long-­‐term  debt  has  been  reduced,  the   declining   raJo   is   mostly   explained   by   increasing  total  liabiliJes  due  to  increased  pension  liabili]es.  

•  The   solvency   ra]o   is   nega]vely   affected   by   both  declining   shareholder’s   equity   as   well   as   increased  liabili]es.   Consequently,   the   solvency   raJo  more   than  halved  over  the  five  year  period.  

•  Because   of   the   company’s   high   financial   leverage   and  the  low  solvency  ra]o,  long  term  liquidity  risk  cannot  be  neglected.  

25  Financial  Analysis  Report  

0%  50%  100%  150%  200%  250%  300%  350%  

2010   2011   2012   2013   2014  

Long-­‐term  debt  /  Total  Liabili]es   Short-­‐term  debt  /  Total  Liabili]es  

Financial  Leverage     Solvency  ra]o  

Long-­‐term  liquidity  raJos 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Long-­‐term  debt  /  Total  Liabili]es 29,7% 29,0% 25,1% 21,0% 20,3%

Short-­‐term  debt  /  Total  Liabili]es 4,7% 3,2% 4,1% 6,8% 3,0%

Financial  Leverage   75,2% 80,5% 201,9% 138,4% 324,2% Solvency  ra]o 28,8% 29,0% 17,2% 21,2% 13,4%

Page 26: Financial’Analysis’Report’ - Freefahmi.ba.free.fr/docs/Courses/FSA cases best of/2015_Lufthansa_case.pdfFinancial’Analysis’Report’ ProjectTeam: CarlaRAMIREZ% Mahias%HÜBENER

Long-­‐term  Liquidity  Risk  (2/2)  

•  The   Net   Debt   to   EBITDA   raJo   has   reached   criJcal  levels   in  2014,   reflec]ng   the   large   increase   in  pension  liabili]es.  The  debt  to  CFO  ra]o  has   likewise   increased  to   significant   levels.   Yet,   since   pension   liabiliJes   are  non  interest-­‐bearing  debt,  the  interest  coverage  raJos  are  sJll  at  acceptable  levels.  

•  The  build  up  of  debt,  however,  is  reflected  in  an  overall  decline  of  interest  coverage  ra]os.    

•  The   raJng   agencies   evaluate   Lu:hansa   as   a   rather  risky  investment.  While  S&P  s]ll  considers  LuWhansa  to  be   investment   grade,   Moody’s   indicates   LuWhansa   to  be  of  specula]ve  nature.  However,  we  should  note  that  Moody’s  has  a  posi]ve  outlook  for  their  ra]ng.  

Solvency  Risk   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014  

Interest  Coverage  ra]o    4.01      2.68      4.36      2.46      2.75    

Interest  Coverage  ra]o  (Cash)    8.65      8.18      7.64      9.51      7.09    

Debt  to  EBITDA    2.06      2.59      2.82      3.23      5.73    

Debt  to  CFO  ra]o    2.10      2.75      3.44      2.57      6.61    

26  Financial  Analysis  Report  

RaJng  Agency  (May  2015)   RaJng   Outlook  

Moody’s  Investors  Service   Ba1   Posi]ve  

Standard  &  Poor’s   BBB-­‐   Stable  

Page 27: Financial’Analysis’Report’ - Freefahmi.ba.free.fr/docs/Courses/FSA cases best of/2015_Lufthansa_case.pdfFinancial’Analysis’Report’ ProjectTeam: CarlaRAMIREZ% Mahias%HÜBENER

Conclusions  

Page 28: Financial’Analysis’Report’ - Freefahmi.ba.free.fr/docs/Courses/FSA cases best of/2015_Lufthansa_case.pdfFinancial’Analysis’Report’ ProjectTeam: CarlaRAMIREZ% Mahias%HÜBENER

Strengths  and  Weaknesses  

28  Financial  Analysis  Report  

•  Strong   investment   on   its   fleet,   which   contributes   in  appealing   to   premium   customers   and   in   offering   a  diversified   route   network   in   terms   of   volume   and  geography.  

•  Although   net   sales   have   slowed   down   due   to   the  nega]ve   pricing   environment,   sales   volume   and  passengers  are  in  increasing.  

•  The  LuWhansa  brand  s]ll  carries  a  great  reputa]on  .  •  Its   results  compare  favorably   in  the  peer  analysis  with  

other   established   carriers;   less   so   for   new   genera]on  airlines.  

 

•  Revenue  growth  has  been  subdued  in  the  last  two  years.  •  Income   statement   items   and   profitability   raJos   have  

been  extremely  volaJle  in  the  past.  •  Legacy   costs   of   an   old   company   as   evidenced   in   the  

unfavorable   cost   structure,   declining   margins   and   the  high  number  of  employees.  

•  Fairly   high   financial   leverage   and   significant   long-­‐term  pension  liabili]es  that  depress  future  flexibility.  

•  ROIC   -­‐   WACC   and   ROE   -­‐   Cost   of   Equity   are   both   not  sa]sfactory;   in   recent   years,   Lu:hansa   has   not   been  able  to  consistently  create  value  for  its  stakeholders.  

•  Net  PPE   /  Gross  PPE   is   around  50%:  while   the  fleet   can  not  yet  be  considered  old,  high  replacement  investments  have  to  be  made.    

•  Both  liquidity  and  solvency  risk  are  elevated.  

Strengths   Weaknesses  

Page 29: Financial’Analysis’Report’ - Freefahmi.ba.free.fr/docs/Courses/FSA cases best of/2015_Lufthansa_case.pdfFinancial’Analysis’Report’ ProjectTeam: CarlaRAMIREZ% Mahias%HÜBENER

Recommenda]ons  

29  Financial  Analysis  Report  

Seek  renegoJaJons  with  pilots  and  employees  to  reduce  the  risk  of  strikes,  which  has  harmed  opera]ng  performance  in  the  past.  

Improve   sales-­‐recollecJon   policies   in   order   to   get  money   from   clients   sooner,   thus   reducing  receivable  accounts.  This  would  have  a  posi]ve  effect  in  available  cash,  reducing  liquidity  risks.  

Focus  on  quality:  concentrate  on  LuWhansa’s  high-­‐yielding  Business  and  First  Class  segment  on  long-­‐haul  flights.  In  2014,  it  generated  42.2%  of  long-­‐haul  revenue  in  Business  and  First  Class.  

Promote  the  split  company  approach  (i.e.,  use  Germanwings  for  domes]c  flights  and  the  soon-­‐to-­‐be  launched  Eurowings  for  long-­‐haul  economy  flights),  in  order  to  achieve  cheaper  cost  structure.  

Renew   efforts   to   reduce   costs   further   in   order   to   achieve   posi]ve   opera]ng  margins   and   to  return  value  for  shareholders.  

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Appendix:  Peer  Company  Air  France  –  KLM  

Air  France  Financials 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Net  Revenue 23310 24363 25423 25520 24912 Net  Income 289 -­‐809 -­‐1225 -­‐1696 -­‐185 EBIT 634 -­‐480 -­‐731 -­‐227 751 Effec]ve  corporate  tax  rate 0,00% 24,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% Shareholders'  Equity 6094 4980 3637 2293 -­‐632             NOPAT 634 -­‐364,8 -­‐731 -­‐227 751 NOPAT  Margin 2,72% -­‐1,50% -­‐2,88% -­‐0,89% 3,01%             Capital  Employed 17836 17561 15362 13656 12275 Capital  Employed  Turnover 1,31 1,39 1,65 1,87 2,03

ROIC 3,55% -­‐2,08% -­‐4,76% -­‐1,66% 6,12% WACC 7,00% 7,40% 7,70% 7,40% 7,10% ROIC  –  WACC -­‐3,45% -­‐9,48% -­‐12,46% -­‐9,06% -­‐0,98%

ROE 4,74% -­‐16,24% -­‐33,68% -­‐73,96% 29,27% Cost  of  Equity 13,00% 13,30% 14,60% 15,00% 15,40% ROE  –  Cost  of  Equity -­‐8,26% -­‐29,54% -­‐48,28% -­‐88,96% 13,87%

•  Air  France  –  KLM  was  selected  as  the  most  appropriate  choice  for  our  peer  analysis  for  the  following  reasons:  •  It  is  an  established  airline  that  offers  similar  products  

as   LuWhansa   (short-­‐haul   and   long-­‐haul   flights).  Moreover,   it   has   a   comparable   history   and   legacy  costs.   Furthermore,   Air   France   –   KLM   has   a   similar  fleet  size  and  the  third  highest  passenger  volume.  

•  Interna]onal   Airlines   Group  was   created   through   a  merger   of   Bri]sh  Airways   and   Iberia   in   2011.   Thus,  only  limited  data  was  available.  

Rank Airline Passengers  in  2014 Fleet DesJnaJons 1 LuWhansa  Group 105,9 615 321 2 Interna]onal  Airlines  Group 88,4 520 248 3 Air  France  –  KLM   87,4 574 231 4 Ryanair 86,4 319 186 5 easyJet 65,3 226 136

Largest  European  airlines:  

30  Financial  Analysis  Report