financial analysis - banque cantonale vaudoise - banque cantonale vaudoise (bcv) attracts deposits...

20.02.2013

Ticker: Banque Cantonale Vaudoise Benchmark:

Currency: SIX Swiss Ex: BCVN, Currency: CHF SWISS MARKET INDEX (SMI)

Sector: Financials Industry: Commercial Banks Year:

Telephone 41-21-212-1000 Revenue (M) Business Segments in CHF Sales (M) Geographic Segments in CHF Sales (M)

Website www.bcv.ch No of Employees Wealth Management 368 Switzerland 1

Address Place Saint-Francois 14 Case postale 300 Lausanne, 1001 Switzerland Corporate Banking 287 Rest of the World

Share Price Performance in CHF Retail Banking 214

Price 522.00 1M Return 6.9% Corporate Center 86

52 Week High 524.00 6M Return 3.4% Trading 62

52 Week Low 436.94 52 Wk Return 14.9%

52 Wk Beta 0.67 YTD Return 7.7%

Credit Ratings

Bloomberg IG3

S&P AA Date 05.12.2011 Outlook NEG

Moody's - Date - Outlook STABLE

Fitch - Date - Outlook -

Valuation Ratios

12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

P/E 11.8x 13.5x 13.0x 13.4x 14.4x 14.2x 13.7x

EV/EBIT - - - - - - -

EV/EBITDA - - - - - - -

P/S 2.6x 3.1x 2.9x 3.2x 4.4x 4.3x 4.2x

P/B 1.4x 1.7x 1.5x 1.6x 1.3x 1.2x 1.3x

Div Yield 5.1% 4.5% 7.0% 6.6% 6.1% 6.2% 6.3%

Profitability Ratios %

12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

Gross Margin - - - - - - -

EBITDA Margin - - - - - - -

Operating Margin 35.0 36.5 34.5 36.5 51.6 52.5 51.4

Profit Margin 28.8 29.1 27.7 29.1 30.3 30.1 30.4

Return on Assets 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9

Return on Equity 12.1 12.4 11.8 12.0 9.3 9.3 9.4

Leverage and Coverage Ratios

12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12

Current Ratio - - - - Current Capitalization in CHF

Quick Ratio - - - - Common Shares Outstanding (M) 8.6

EBIT/Interest - - - - Market Capitalization (M) 4492.4

Tot Debt/Capital 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 Cash and ST Investments (M) 6738.0

Tot Debt/Equity 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.2 Total Debt (M) 8850.0

Eff Tax Rate % 22.6 22.9 23.0 22.8 Preferred Equity (M) 0.0

LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 0.0

Investments (M) 20.0

Enterprise Value (M) 6624.4

Banque Cantonale Vaudoise (BCV) attracts deposits and offers retail, private, and

corporate banking services. The Bank offers consumer loans, treasury management,

pension funds, and investment management services, trades in commodities, advises

on mergers and acquisitions, and offers securities brokerage services. BCV operates

primarily in the Canton of Vaud.

BCVN SW

1'321

1'967

Company Analysis - Overview

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Banque Cantonale Vaudoise

Target price in CHF

Date Buy Hold Sell Date Price Target Price Broker Analyst Recommendation Target Date

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Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings

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20.02.2013


Ownership Statistics Geographic Ownership Distribution

Shares Outstanding (M) 8.6 Switzerland 93.03%

Float 32.7% United States 3.08%

Short Interest (M) Britain 1.47%

Short Interest as % of Float Luxembourg 1.34%

Days to Cover Shorts Unknown Country 0.40%

Institutional Ownership 74.88% Germany 0.15%

Retail Ownership 24.81% France 0.14%

Insider Ownership 0.30% Others 0.40%

Institutional Ownership Distribution

Government 89.05%

Investment Advisor 7.37%

Mutual Fund Manager 2.79%

Individual 0.40%

Pricing data is in CHF Others 0.39%

Top 20 Owners:

Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source Country

CANTON OF VAUD 5'762'252 0 3'007'895'544 66.95% 01.01.2012 Co File SWITZERLAND

UBS FUND MANAGEMENT 99'092 -291 51'726'024 1.15% 31.10.2012 MF-AGG SWITZERLAND

BLACKROCK 58'620 7'662 30'599'640 0.68% 15.02.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES

VANGUARD GROUP INC 55'668 1'997 29'058'696 0.65% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES

JUPITER ASSET MANAGE 54'169 -11'500 28'276'218 0.63% 31.07.2012 MF-AGG BRITAIN

CREDIT SUISSE ASSET 45'660 775 23'834'520 0.53% 28.12.2012 MF-AGG SWITZERLAND

THORNBURG INVESTMENT 44'400 0 23'176'800 0.52% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES

SWISSCANTO FONDSLEIT 31'940 -514 16'672'680 0.37% 30.11.2012 MF-AGG SWITZERLAND

NEW JERSEY DIVISION 24'618 0 12'850'596 0.29% 30.06.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES

PICTET & CIE 23'611 0 12'324'942 0.27% 31.10.2012 MF-AGG SWITZERLAND

ALLIANZ ASSET MANAGE 22'742 0 11'871'324 0.26% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG GERMANY

SCHRODER INVESTMENT 18'595 3'950 9'706'590 0.22% 30.06.2012 MF-AGG BRITAIN

BNP PARIBAS INV PART 18'469 -113 9'640'818 0.21% 30.11.2012 ULT-AGG FRANCE

VONTOBEL ASSET MANAG 16'600 3'350 8'665'200 0.19% 31.10.2012 MF-AGG SWITZERLAND

SCHRODER INVESTMENT 16'170 0 8'440'740 0.19% 28.09.2012 MF-AGG SWITZERLAND

BARING FUND MANAGERS 12'574 0 6'563'628 0.15% 31.10.2012 MF-AGG BRITAIN

PRUDENTIAL FINANCIAL 10'122 0 5'283'684 0.12% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES

INTERNATIONAL VALUE 9'890 -5'912 5'162'580 0.11% 31.03.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES

SARASIN 9'201 0 4'802'922 0.11% 30.11.2012 ULT-AGG

STEIMER OLIVIER 8'074 0 4'214'628 0.09% 31.12.2011 Co File n/a

Top 5 Insiders:

Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source

STEIMER OLIVIER 8'074 4'214'628 0.09% 31.12.2011 Co File

KIENER PASCAL 7'177 3'746'394 0.08% 31.12.2011 Co File

ACHARD AIME 1'642 857'124 0.02% 31.12.2011 Co File

SCHWARZ JEAN-FRANCOIS 1'583 826'326 0.02% 31.12.2011 Co File

SAGER BERTRAND 1'566 817'452 0.02% 31.12.2011 Co File

Company Analysis - Ownership

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TOP 20 ALL



Financial information is in CHF (M)

Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

Income Statement

Revenue 1'604 1'516 1'438 1'499 1'590 1'727 1'566 1'371 1'352 1'352 1'321 1'029 1'050 1'074

- Cost of Goods Sold

Gross Income

- Selling, General & Admin Expenses 856 732 674 643 656 645 589 590 608 622 611

(Research & Dev Costs)

Operating Income -977 156 427 378 433 429 325 365 393 377 391 531 551 552

- Interest Expense

- Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains)

- Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) -36 -18 -12 -210 -247 -287 -134 -24 -14 -14 -12

Pretax Income -1'192 174 359 477 558 576 459 390 407 391 403 414 424 433

- Income Tax Expense 8 17 22 20 23 99 101 88 93 90 92

Income Before XO Items -1'200 157 337 457 534 477 358 301 314 301 311

- Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

- Minority Interests 0 3 2 3 4 4 1 1 1 -1 0

Diluted EPS Before XO Items 41.40 34.93 36.39 35.10 36.14

Net Income Adjusted* -1'200 154 335 356 410 473 330 279 313 302 304 312 316 326

EPS Adjusted (141.39) 6.98 39.31 41.36 47.85 55.28 38.39 32.41 36.39 35.10 35.28 36.18 36.66 38.22

Dividends Per Share 0.00 2.00 3.00 4.50 7.00 14.00 20.00 21.00 22.00 32.00 32.00 32.00 32.25 33.00

Payout Ratio % 40.4 7.6 8.5 11.4 25.5 48.3 60.1 60.4 91.2 88.6 0.88 0.88 0.86

Total Shares Outstanding 8 22 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

Diluted Shares Outstanding 9 9 9 9 9

EBITDA

*Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges.

Equivalent Estimates

Company Analysis - Financials I/IV

Fiscal Year


Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

Balance Sheet

Total Current Assets

+ Cash & Near Cash Items 399 368 400 282 321 353 546 1'404 388 1'711 4'735

+ Short Term Investments 1'142 1'360 1'489 1'806 2'116 2'146 702 485 2'413 601 693

+ Accounts & Notes Receivable

+ Inventories

+ Other Current Assets

Total Long-Term Assets

+ Long Term Investments 1'508 1'539 1'573 1'697 1'669 1'671 1'634 2'951 2'966 2'975 3'153

Gross Fixed Assets

Accumulated Depreciation

+ Net Fixed Assets 424 410 392 381 365 286 283 597 588 628 621

+ Other Long Term Assets 3'373 2'714 2'413 4'244 1'857 2'037 1'897 515 710 895 633

Total Current Liabilities

+ Accounts Payable

+ Short Term Borrowings 3'318 2'987 2'458 3'554 2'091 2'477 2'361 2'243 1'994 2'749 2'447

+ Other Short Term Liabilities 2'250 2'130 1'854 4'925 2'336 2'084 1'592 926 974 944 867

Total Long Term Liabilities

+ Long Term Borrowings 9'255 7'628 6'331 5'475 6'684 6'938 6'508 5'937 5'582 5'202 5'968

+ Other Long Term Borrowings 254 253 332 484 628 765 1'076 704 704 704 704

Total Liabilities 31'618 29'789 27'950 32'088 30'176 32'816 33'138 33'215 33'018 35'306 37'189

+ Long Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

+ Minority Interest 20 21 14 15 14 15 13 14 14 20 1

+ Share Capital & APIC 1'695 1'714 1'722 1'596 1'345 891 613 529 445 446 361

+ Retained Earnings & Other Equity -814 575 853 1'176 1'495 1'615 1'847 1'975 2'108 2'131 2'249

Total Shareholders Equity 901 2'310 2'588 2'787 2'855 2'521 2'473 2'518 2'567 2'597 2'611

Total Liabilities & Equity 32'519 32'098 30'537 34'875 33'031 35'337 35'611 35'733 35'585 37'903 39'800

Book Value Per Share 103.78 104.24 304.18 325.40 331.73 291.80 286.37 291.49 297.12 300.04 303.28 410.56 418.23 402.06

Tangible Book Value Per Share 89.84 100.82 293.24 314.24 329.80 290.44 285.73 290.95 296.69 295.97 298.98

Company Analysis - Financials II/IV


Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

Cash Flows

Net Income -1'200 154 335 454 530 473 356 301 313 302 311 313 316 323

+ Depreciation & Amortization 1'357 262 1 -77 -110 -175 35 102 58 98

+ Other Non-Cash Adjustments 224 -9 82 119 130 144 3 -1 2 -1

+ Changes in Non-Cash Capital -34 6 -6 -30 1 85 -79 -11 25 -22

Cash From Operating Activities 347 413 412 467 551 527 315 391 397 377

+ Disposal of Fixed Assets

+ Capital Expenditures

+ Increase in Investments

+ Decrease in Investments

+ Other Investing Activities

Cash From Investing Activities

+ Dividends Paid -121

+ Change in Short Term Borrowings

+ Increase in Long Term Borrowings

+ Decrease in Long Term Borrowings

+ Increase in Capital Stocks

+ Decrease in Capital Stocks

+ Other Financing Activities

Cash From Financing Activities -121

Net Changes in Cash

Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX) 347 413 412 467 525 498 304 379 377 353

Free Cash Flow To Firm

Free Cash Flow To Equity

Free Cash Flow per Share 40.87 18.71 48.33 54.50 61.09 57.90 35.34 43.99 43.77 41.02

Company Analysis - Financials III/IV


Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

Ratio Analysis

Valuation Ratios

Price Earnings 20.2x 5.2x 7.1x 12.2x 12.8x 7.7x 11.8x 13.5x 13.0x 13.4x 14.4x 14.2x 13.7x

EV to EBIT

EV to EBITDA

Price to Sales 0.4x 2.1x 1.2x 2.2x 3.2x 2.5x 1.7x 2.6x 3.1x 2.9x 3.2x 4.4x 4.3x 4.2x

Price to Book 0.8x 1.4x 0.7x 1.2x 1.8x 1.7x 1.1x 1.4x 1.7x 1.5x 1.6x 1.3x 1.2x 1.3x

Dividend Yield 0.0% 1.4% 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 2.8% 6.3% 5.1% 4.5% 7.0% 6.6% 6.1% 6.2% 6.3%

Profitability Ratios

Gross Margin

EBITDA Margin - - -

Operating Margin -103.7% 15.3% 41.7% 33.9% 36.8% 36.7% 32.4% 35.0% 36.5% 34.5% 36.5% 51.6% 52.5% 51.4%

Profit Margin -127.3% 15.1% 32.7% 40.8% 45.1% 40.5% 35.5% 28.8% 29.1% 27.7% 29.1% 30.3% 30.1% 30.4%

Return on Assets -3.6% 0.5% 1.1% 1.4% 1.6% 1.4% 1.0% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%

Return on Equity -104.4% 9.7% 13.8% 17.0% 18.9% 17.7% 14.3% 12.1% 12.4% 11.8% 12.0% 9.3% 9.3% 9.4%

Leverage & Coverage Ratios

Current Ratio

Quick Ratio

Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I)

Tot Debt/Capital 0.93 0.82 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.79 0.78 0.76 0.75 0.75 0.76

Tot Debt/Equity 13.95 4.60 3.40 3.24 3.07 3.73 3.59 3.25 2.95 3.06 3.22

Others

Asset Turnover 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03

Accounts Receivable Turnover

Accounts Payable Turnover

Inventory Turnover

Effective Tax Rate 9.6% 6.1% 4.3% 4.2% 17.1% 22.1% 22.6% 22.9% 23.0% 22.8%

Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV


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12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2011 12/2011 12/2012 12/2011 12/2012 12/2011 12/2011 12/2011 12/2011 12/2012 12/2011 12/2011

524.00 16.39 27.85 28.80 16.25 33.00 42.45 404.50 11.95 84.00 130.00 113.60 360.00 111.64 223.70

20.02.2013 25.01.2013 07.02.2013 20.02.2012 15.02.2013 20.02.2013 22.02.2012 19.02.2013 20.02.2013 20.02.2012 11.02.2013 27.04.2012 06.02.2013 02.03.2012 11.01.2013

456.96 9.69 15.97 24.50 9.92 17.80 25.50 320.75 4.77 60.00 85.00 98.00 311.00 74.35 157.20

07.03.2012 24.07.2012 03.08.2012 08.10.2012 25.05.2012 28.06.2012 16.11.2012 21.05.2012 24.07.2012 21.11.2012 26.07.2012 16.11.2012 29.02.2012 31.08.2012 04.06.2012

17'955 6'729'041 4'236'189 1'193 327'314 62'761 9'127 1'546 94'015 5'665 3'371 794 2'056 38'297 26'033

522.00 15.31 27.34 27.00 16.15 33.00 31.80 401.00 11.70 80.25 129.50 98.90 360.00 87.35 213.50

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14.2% 58.1% 71.2% 10.2% 62.8% 85.4% 24.7% 25.0% 145.3% 33.8% 52.4% 0.9% 15.8% 17.5% 35.8%

8.6 3'747.4 1'292.7 62.9 177.1 63.4 28.4 5.5 146.7 5.8 7.8 29.9 8.5 15.8 25.4

4'492.4 58'727.0 36'111.5 1'698.3 2'961.2 2'145.0 979.4 2'234.9 1'716.0 474.7 1'036.0 3'096.7 3'060.0 1'379.5 5'700.5

8'415.0 267'400.0 330'510.0 2'024.9 17.5 7'456.5 1'844.5 5'065.0 1'269.7 928.9 1.4 7'662.3 5'639.3 6'379.3 -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

1.0 4'353.0 6'786.0 37.4 - - 101.2 - 24.6 19.0 - 361.6 - - 0.8

6'742.0 66'383.0 63'708.0 2'764.8 600.1 2'999.6 7'716.7 2'183.0 3'286.2 5'389.3 361.2 3'907.4 2'920.5 1'946.1 96.7

- 264'097.0 - - - 6'978.0 - - - - 804.8 - - - 5'605.2

LFY 1'321.2 37'392.0 38'313.0 831.5 812.2 890.7 555.0 501.6 1'078.2 320.7 143.8 935.8 685.4 693.4 448.8

LTM 1'321.2 37'470.0 38'313.0 795.5 983.4 861.4 569.7 501.6 1'146.3 314.0 144.3 940.7 685.4 663.4 480.4

CY+1 1'029.3 26'730.4 26'558.3 680.7 581.8 842.4 407.0 509.0 791.2 217.0 148.5 672.0 427.0 386.0 425.0

CY+2 1'050.3 27'411.1 27'461.6 741.3 621.8 912.0 407.0 523.0 796.1 221.0 170.7 648.0 437.0 391.0 509.3

LFY - 6.9x - - - 6.8x - - - - 2.7x - - - 9.3x

LTM - 6.9x - - - 7.0x - - - - 2.7x - - - 8.7x

CY+1 - - - - 4.5x - - - - - - - - - 13.2x

CY+2 - - - - 4.3x - - - - - - - - - 10.9x

LFY - 17'464.0 - - - 213.9 - - - - 66.4 - - - 236.2

LTM - 17'575.0 - - - 202.6 - - - - 64.7 - - - 250.0

CY+1 - - - - - - - - - - 65.3 - - - 267.2

CY+2 - - - - - - - - - - 80.5 - - - 324.7

LFY - 14.8x - - - 28.2x - - - - 5.8x - - - 17.6x

LTM - 16.1x - - - 29.8x - - - - 5.9x - - - 16.6x

CY+1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 20.9x

CY+2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 17.1x

LFY 35.48 1.68 0.77 1.63 -0.52 1.76 0.38 27.28 -0.52 0.75 6.48 5.99 19.51 6.85 7.75

LTM 36.14 -0.75 0.84 1.04 -0.32 1.55 1.34 27.28 -2.21 2.07 6.33 7.37 19.79 7.90 8.46

CY+1 36.18 0.93 2.70 1.62 0.87 2.32 2.91 30.88 0.79 2.69 6.40 9.34 21.85 7.28 9.67

CY+2 36.66 1.21 3.11 1.83 1.09 2.68 3.60 31.97 0.93 4.51 7.69 7.75 22.48 6.84 11.69

LFY 14.4x - 32.5x 26.0x - 21.3x 23.7x 14.7x - 38.8x 20.5x 13.4x 18.2x 11.1x 25.2x

LTM 14.7x 15.3x 12.3x 26.0x - 20.6x 23.7x 14.7x - 38.8x 20.6x 14.0x 15.2x 14.4x 25.7x

CY+1 14.4x 16.5x 10.1x 16.6x 18.6x 14.2x 10.9x 13.0x 14.9x 29.8x 20.2x 10.6x 16.5x 12.0x 22.1x

CY+2 14.2x 12.6x 8.8x 14.8x 14.8x 12.3x 8.8x 12.5x 12.6x 17.8x 16.8x 12.8x 16.0x 12.8x 18.3x

1 Year (2.3%) (8.5%) (10.3%) (2.3%) (15.8%) - (8.3%) (28.6%) 80.6% (7.7%) 8.1% (6.6%) (4.7%) (1.9%) 0.3%

5 Year (4.5%) (10.7%) 30.2% (5.5%) - (5.5%) (7.6%) (16.3%) 399.5% (13.5%) 10.2% (3.5%) (4.1%) (0.2%) 13.9%

1 Year - - - - - - - - - - 3.9% - - - (26.4%)

5 Year - (29.1%) - - - (9.9%) - - - - - - - - 7.6%

LTM - 47.0% - - - 23.5% - - - - 44.9% - - - 52.0%

CY+1 - - - - - - - - - - 44.0% - - - 62.9%

CY+2 - - - - - - - - - - 47.2% - - - 63.7%

Total Debt / Equity % 322.4% 582.6% 927.6% 164.7% 0.8% 498.2% 119.7% 271.9% 128.7% 105.6% 0.7% 283.6% 364.2% 351.2% 0.0%

Total Debt / Capital % 76.3% 84.2% 88.6% 61.5% 0.8% 83.3% 52.9% 73.1% 55.7% 50.8% 0.7% 71.4% 78.5% 77.8% 0.0%

Total Debt / EBITDA - 18.434x - - - 34.709x - - - - 0.068x - - - 0.000x

Net Debt / EBITDA - 9.520x - - - 23.855x - - - - -3.575x - - - -0.384x

EBITDA / Int. Expense - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

S&P LT Credit Rating AA A A A - A - - - A- - AA+ AA+ - -

S&P LT Credit Rating Date 05.12.2011 29.11.2011 19.12.2008 17.12.2012 - 30.03.2009 - - - 24.02.2009 - 18.10.2001 12.09.2008 - -

Moody's LT Credit Rating - A2 (P)A2 - - - - Aa1 - - - - - - -

Moody's LT Credit Rating Date - 21.06.2012 21.06.2012 - - - - 02.12.2003 - - - - - - -

52-Week High Date

52-Week Low

Latest Fiscal Year:

52-Week High

Total Debt

Market Capitalization

Daily Volume

52-Week Low % Change

Current Price (2/dd/yy)

52-Week High % Change

Cash and Equivalents

EBITDA

EV/EBITDA

Enterprise Value

Valuation

Preferred Stock

52-Week Low Date

Minority Interest

Total Common Shares (M)

P/E

Revenue Growth

Total Revenue

EV/Total Revenue

EPS

EBITDA Growth

EBITDA Margin

Credit Ratings

Leverage/Coverage Ratios

Company Analysis - Peers Comparision


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