fin 545 prof. rogers spring 2011 option valuation
TRANSCRIPT
FIN 545PROF. ROGERSSPRING 2011
Option valuation
PRINCIPLES OF OPTION VALUATIONASSOCIATED AUDIO CONTENT = APPROX 20
MINUTES (15 SLIDES)
Segment 1
Basic Notation and Terminology
Symbols S0 (stock price) X (exercise price) T (time to expiration = (days until expiration)/365) r (risk-free rate) ST (stock price at expiration)
C(S0,T,X), P(S0,T,X)
Principles of Call Option Pricing
Minimum Value of a Call C(S0,T,X) 0 (for any call) For American calls:
Ca(S0,T,X) Max(0,S0 - X)
Concept of intrinsic value: Max(0,S0 - X) Concept of time value of option
C(S,T,X) – Max(0,S – X) For example, what is the time value of a call option
trading at $5 with exercise price of $20 when the the underlying asset is trading at $22.75?
Principles of Call Option Pricing (continued)
Maximum Value of a Call C(S0,T,X) S0
“Right” but not “obligation” can never be more valuable than underlying asset (and will typically be worth less).
Option values are always equal to a percentage of the underlying asset’s value!
Principles of Call Option Pricing (continued)
Effect of Time to Expiration More time until expiration, higher option value!
Volatility is related to time (we’ll see this in binomial and Black-Scholes models).
Calls allow buyer to invest in other assets, thus a pure time value of money effect.
Principles of Call Option Pricing (continued)
Effect of Exercise Price Lower exercise prices on call options with same
underlying and time to expiration always have higher values!
Principles of Call Option Pricing (continued)
Lower Bound of a European Call Ce(S0,T,X) Max[0,S0 - X(1+r)-T] A call option can never be worth less than the
difference between the underlying’s value and the present value of the exercise price on the call (or zero, if this difference is negative).
Principles of Call Option Pricing (continued)
American Call Versus European Call Ca(S0,T,X) Ce(S0,T,X) If there are no dividends on the stock, an American call
will never be exercised early (unless there are complicating factors…we’ll discuss employee options eventually).
Rather than exercise, better to sell the call in the market. Options are worth more alive than dead!
If no dividends, the value of the American call and identical European call should be equal.
If dividend is sufficiently large to invoke potential for early exercise, this “early exercise option” is a source of additional value for an American call (vs. the equivalent European).
Principles of Put Option Pricing
Minimum Value of a Put P(S0,T,X) 0 (for any put) For American puts:
Pa(S0,T,X) Max(0,X - S0)
Concept of intrinsic value: Max(0,X - S0)
Principles of Put Option Pricing (continued)
Maximum Value of a Put Pe(S0,T,X) X(1+r)-T
European put option value must be no more than the present value of the exercise price of the put option.
Pa(S0,T,X) X American put option value is bounded above by the
exercise price. No “present value effect” because of potential for
early exercise (more on this shortly).
Principles of Put Option Pricing (continued)
The Effect of Time to Expiration Same effect as call options: more time, more value!
Principles of Put Option Pricing (continued)
Effect of Exercise Price Raising exercise price of put options increases
value!
Principles of Put Option Pricing (continued)
Lower Bound of a European Put Pe(S0,T,X) Max(0,X(1+r)-T - S0) The value of a put option cannot be less than the
difference between the present value of the put option’s exercise price and the underlying’s value (or zero if this difference is negative).
Principles of Put Option Pricing (continued)
American Put Versus European Put Pa(S0,T,X) Pe(S0,T,X)
Early Exercise of American Puts There is typically the probability of a sufficiently low
stock price occurring that will make it optimal to exercise an American put early.
Dividends on the stock reduce the likelihood of early exercise.
Principles of Put Option Pricing (continued)
Put-Call Parity Form portfolios A and B where the options are
European. Portfolio A: Buy share of stock; buy put option on stock with
exercise price X, and maturity date T Portfolio B: Buy call option on stock with exercise price X,
and maturity date T; buy risk-free bond with face value X and maturity date T
The portfolios have the same outcomes at the options’ expiration. Thus, it must be true that S0 + Pe(S0,T,X) = Ce(S0,T,X) + X(1+r)-T
Equation illustrates “put-call parity.” Equation can be rearranged to offer various interpretations.
Put-Call Parity Example
Price of underlying asset (S) = $19.50Premium for call option on underlying asset with
exercise price = $20 and 3 months until expiration = $2.50
Premium for put option on underlying asset with exercise price = $20 and 3 months until expiration = $1.50
Risk-free rate = 5%Does put-call parity hold?Which option is overpriced?What would be the trading strategy?
VALUING OPTIONS WITH BINOMIAL MODELSASSOCIATED AUDIO CONTENT = APPROX 38
MINUTES (12 SLIDES)
Segment 2
One-Period Binomial Model
Conditions and assumptions One period, two outcomes (states) S = current stock price u = 1 + return if stock goes up d = 1 + return if stock goes down r = risk-free rate
Value of European call at expiration one period later Cu = Max(0,Su - X) or Cd = Max(0,Sd - X)
One-Period Binomial Model (continued)
This is the theoretical value of the call as determined by the stock price, exercise price, risk-free rate, and up and down factors.
The probabilities of the up and down moves are never specified. They are irrelevant to the option price.
d)-d)/(u-r(1=p
wherer1
p)C(1pCC du
One-Period Binomial Model (continued)
An Illustrative Example Let S = 100, X = 100, u = 1.25, d = 0.80, r = 0.07 First find the values of Cu, Cd, h, and p:
Cu = Max(0,100(1.25) - 100) = Max(0,125 - 100) = 25
Cd = Max(0,100(.80) - 100) = Max(0,80 - 100) = 0 h = (25 - 0)/(125 - 80) = 0.556 p = (1.07 - 0.80)/(1.25 - 0.80) = 0.6
Then insert into the formula for C: 14.02
1.07
0.0).40((0.6)25C
Student exercises
Calculate the option values if the following changes are made to the prior example: S = 110 S = 90 u = 1.40, d = 0.70 u = 1.15, d = 0.90 r = 10% r = 4%
(Return to text slide)
Two-Period Binomial Model
We now let the stock go up another period so that it ends We now let the stock go up another period so that it ends up Suup Su22, Sud or Sd, Sud or Sd22..
The option expires after two periods with three possible The option expires after two periods with three possible values:values:
X]SdMax[0,C
X]SudMax[0,C
X]SuMax[0,C
2d
ud
2u
2
2
Two-Period Binomial Model (continued)
After one period the call will have one period to go before expiration. Thus, it will worth either of the following two values
The price of the call today will be ????
r1
p)C(1pCC
or ,r1
p)C(1pCC
2
2
ddud
uduu
Two-Period Binomial Model (continued)
2d
2udu
2
du
r)(1
Cp)(1p)C2p(1CpC
:over time)constant are d"" and u" (if
following theas writtenbe also can whichr1
p)C(1pCC
22
Two-Period Binomial Model (continued)
An Illustrative Example Let S = 100, X = 100, u = 1.25, d = 0.80, r =
0.07 Su2 = 100(1.25)2 = 156.25 Sud = 100(1.25)(0.80) = 100 Sd2 = 100(0.80)2 = 64 The call option prices at maturity are as follows:
0.0100]Max[0,64X]SdMax[0,C
0.0100]Max[0,100X]SudMax[0,C
56.25100]25Max[0,156.X]SuMax[0,C
2d
ud
2u
2
2
Two-Period Binomial Model (continued)
The two values of the call at the end of the first period are
0.01.07
0.0).40((0.6)0.0
r1
p)C(1pCCor
31.541.07
(0.4)0.0+(0.6)56.25=
r1
p)C(1pCC
2
2
ddud
uduu
Two-Period Binomial Model (continued)
Therefore, the value of the call today is
17.691.07
0.0).40((0.6)31.54r1
p)C(1pCC du
Student exercises
Calculate the option values if the following changes are made to the prior example: S = 110 S = 90 u = 1.40, d = 0.70 u = 1.125, d = 0.90, r = 3.5%
ABSENCE OF ARBITRAGE AND OPTION VALUATIONASSOCIATED AUDIO CONTENT = APPROX 24
MINUTES (10 SLIDES)
Segment 3
The “no-arbitrage” concept
Important point: d < 1 + r < u to prevent arbitrage
We construct a hedge portfolio of h shares of stock and one short call. Current value of portfolio: V = hS - C
At expiration the hedge portfolio will be worth Vu = hSu - Cu
Vd = hSd - Cd
If we are hedged, these must be equal. Setting Vu = Vd and solving for h gives (see next page!)
One-Period Binomial Model (continued)
These values are all known so h is easily computed. The variable, h, is called “hedge ratio.”
Since the portfolio is riskless, it should earn the risk-free rate. Thus V(1+r) = Vu (or Vd)
Substituting for V and Vu
(hS - C)(1+r) = hSu - Cu
And the theoretical value of the option is
SdSu
CCh du
No-arbitrage condition
C = hS – [(hSu – Cu)(1 + r)-1]Solving for C provides the same result as we
determined in our earlier example!Can alternatively substitute Sd and Cd into
equationIf the call is not priced “correctly”, then
investor could devise a risk-free trading strategy, but earn more than the risk-free rate….arbitrage profits!
1-period binomial model risk-free portfolio example
A Hedged Portfolio Short 1,000 calls and long 1000h = 1000(0.556) =
556 shares. Value of investment: V = 556($100) -
1,000($14.02) $41,580. (This is how much money you must put up.)
Stock goes to $125 Value of investment = 556($125) - 1,000($25)
= $44,500 Stock goes to $80
Value of investment = 556($80) - 1,000($0) = $44,480 (difference from 44,500 is due to rounding error)
One-Period Binomial Model (continued)
An Overpriced Call Let the call be selling for $15.00 Your amount invested is 556($100) -
1,000($15.00) = $40,600
You will still end up with $44,500, which is a 9.6% return.
Everyone will take advantage of this, forcing the call price to fall to $14.02
You invested $41,580 and got back $44,500, a 7 % return, which is the risk-free rate.
An Underpriced Call Let the call be priced at $13 Sell short 556 shares at $100 and buy 1,000 calls
at $13. This will generate a cash inflow of $42,600.
At expiration, you will end up paying out $44,500. This is like a loan in which you borrowed $42,600
and paid back $44,500, a rate of 4.46%, which beats the risk-free borrowing rate.
One-Period Binomial Model (continued)
2-period binomial model risk-free portfolio example
A Hedge Portfolio Call trades at its theoretical value of $17.69. Hedge ratio today: h = (31.54 - 0.0)/(125 - 80) =
0.701 So
Buy 701 shares at $100 for $70,100 Sell 1,000 calls at $17.69 for $17,690 Net investment: $52,410
Two-Period Binomial Model (continued)
A Hedge Portfolio (continued) The hedge ratio then changes depending on
whether the stock goes up or down
What is the hedge ratio if “up”? What is the hedge ratio if “down”? Describe how you alter your portfolio in each circumstance.
In each case, you wealth grows by 7% at the end of the first period. You then revise the mix of stock and calls by either buying or selling shares or options. Funds realized from selling are invested at 7% and funds necessary for buying are borrowed at 7%.
2dud
d2
uduu
du
SdSud
CCh ,
SudSu
CCh ,
SdSu
CCh
22
Two-Period Binomial Model (continued)
A Hedge Portfolio (continued) Your wealth then grows by 7% from the end of the
first period to the end of the second. Conclusion: If the option is correctly priced and you
maintain the appropriate mix of shares and calls as indicated by the hedge ratio, you earn a risk-free return over both periods.
Two-Period Binomial Model (continued)
A Mispriced Call in the Two-Period World If the call is underpriced, you buy it and short the
stock, maintaining the correct hedge over both periods. You end up borrowing at less than the risk-free rate.
If the call is overpriced, you sell it and buy the stock, maintaining the correct hedge over both periods. You end up lending at more than the risk-free rate.
EXTENSIONS OF THE BINOMIAL MODEL VALUATION PROCESS
ASSOCIATED AUDIO CONTENT = APPROX 33 MINUTES (16 SLIDES)
Segment 4
Extensions of the binomial model
Early exercise (American options)Put optionsCall options with dividendsReal option examples
Pricing Put Options
Same procedure as calls but use put payoff formula at expiration. Using our prior example, put prices at expiration are
36.064]Max[0,100]SdMax[XP
0.0100]Max[0,100Sud]Max[XP
0.0156.25]Max[0,100]SuXMax[0,P
2d
ud
2u
2
2
Pricing Put Options (continued)
The two values of the put at the end of the first period are
13.461.07
36).40((0.6)0.0
r1
p)P(1pPPor
0.0,1.07
(0.4)0.0+(0.6)0.0=
r1
p)P(1pPP
2
2
ddud
uduu
Pricing Put Options (continued)
Therefore, the value of the put today is
5.031.07
13.46).40((0.6)0.0r1
p)P(1pPP du
Pricing Put Options (continued)
Let us hedge a long position in stock by purchasing puts. The hedge ratio formula is the same except that we ignore the negative sign:
Thus, we shall buy 299 shares and 1,000 puts. This will cost $29,900 (299 x $100) + $5,030 (1,000 x $5.03) for a total of $34,930.
0.29980125
13.460h
Pricing Put Options (continued)
Stock goes from 100 to 125. We now have 299 shares at $125 + 1,000 puts at $0.0 = $37,375 This is a 7% gain over $34,930. The new hedge ratio is
So sell 299 shares, receiving 299($125) = $37,375, which is invested in risk-free bonds.
0.000100156.25
0.00.0h
Pricing Put Options (continued)
Stock goes from 100 to 80. We now have 299 shares at $80 + 1,000 puts at $13.46 = $37,380 This is a 7% gain over $34,930. The new hedge ratio is
So buy 701 shares, paying 701($80) = $56,080, by borrowing at the risk-free rate.
1.00064100
360h
Pricing Put Options (continued)
Stock goes from 125 to 156.25. We now have Bond worth $37,375(1.07) = $39,991 This is a 7% gain.
Stock goes from 125 to 100. We now have Bond worth $37,375(1.07) = $39,991 This is a 7% gain.
Pricing Put Options (continued)
Stock goes from 80 to 100. We now have 1,000 shares worth $100 each, 1,000 puts worth $0 each,
plus a loan in which we owe $56,080(1.07) = $60,006 for a total of $39,994, a 7% gain
Stock goes from 80 to 64. We now have 1,000 shares worth $64 each, 1,000 puts worth $36 each,
plus a loan in which we owe $56,080(1.07) = $60,006 for a total of $39,994, a 7% gain
Early Exercise & American Puts
Now we must consider the possibility of exercising the put early. At time 1 the European put values were
Pu = 0.00 when the stock is at 125
Pd = 13.46 when the stock is at 80
When the stock is at 80, the put is in-the-money by $20 so exercise it early. Replace Pu = 13.46 with Pu = 20. The value of the put today is higher at 7.48
1.07
20).40((0.6)0.0P
Call options and dividends
One way to incorporate dividends is to assume a constant yield, , per period. The stock moves up, then drops by the rate . Using the same parameters from our earlier 2-
period binomial example (now incorporate 10% dividend yield to be paid at the first “up” or “down” node).
The call prices at expiration are
0100)0Max(0,57.6C
0.0100)Max(0,90CC
40.625100)625Max(0,140.C
2
2
d
duud
u
Calls and dividends (continued)
The European call prices after one period are
The European call value at time 0 is
00.01.070.0).40( (0.6)0.0
C
22.781.07
0.0).40(5(0.6)40.62C
u
u
12.771.07
0.0).40((0.6)22.78C
Will an American call option be exercised early?
If there are no dividends, a call option should never be exercised early (NOTE: not true for employee options later!)
If the call is American, when the stock is at 125, it pays a dividend of $12.50 and then falls to $112.50. We can exercise it, paying $100, and receive a stock worth $125. The stock goes ex-dividend, falling to $112.50 but we get the $12.50 dividend. So at that point, the option is worth $25.
Therefore, a rational investor would exercise early (to capture the “high” dividend! In the example we just completed, replace the binomial value of Cu = $22.78 with Cu = $25. Thus, if the the call is American, at time 0 its value is $14.02. The $12.77 value on the prior page would be the value of the European call option.
14.021.07
0.0).40((0.6)25C
Calls and dividends
Alternatively, we can specify that the stock pays a specific dollar dividend at time 1. Unfortunately, the tree no longer recombines. We can still calculate the option value but the tree grows large very fast.
Because of the reduction in the number of computations, trees that recombine are preferred over trees that do not recombine.
Calls and dividends
Yet another alternative (and preferred) specification is to subtract the present value of the dividends from the stock price and let the adjusted stock price follow the binomial up and down factors.
The tree now recombines and we can easily calculate the option values following the same procedure as before.
Real options
An application of binomial option valuation methodology to corporate financial decision making.
Consider an oil exploration company Traditional NPV analysis assumes that decision to
operate is “binding” through the life of the project.
Real options analysis adds “flexibility” by allowing management to consider abandonment of project if oil prices drop too low.
If “option” adds value to the project, then Project value = NPV of project + value of real options
See spreadsheet example.
VALUING OPTIONS WITH BLACK-SCHOLES-MERTONASSOCIATED AUDIO CONTENT = APPROX 37
MINUTES (15 SLIDES)
Segment 5
Origins of the Black-Scholes-Merton Formula
Brownian motion and the works of Einstein, Bachelier, Wiener, Itô
Black, Scholes, Merton and the 1997 Nobel Prize
Black-Scholes-Merton Model as the Limit of the Binomial Model
Recall the binomial model and the notion of a dynamic risk-free hedge in which no arbitrage opportunities are available.
Demonstrate (using spreadsheet model) that binomial valuation converges toward Black-Scholes valuation.
The binomial model is in discrete time. As you decrease the length of each time step, it converges to continuous time.
Assumptions of the Model
Stock prices behave randomly and evolve according to a lognormal distribution. A lognormal distribution means that the log
(continuously compounded) return is normally distributed.
The risk-free rate and volatility of the log return on the stock are constant throughout the option’s life
There are no taxes or transaction costsThe options are European
A Nobel Formula
The Black-Scholes-Merton model gives the correct formula for a European call under these assumptions.
The model is derived with complex mathematics but is easily understandable. The formula is (if no dividends on underlying stock):
Tσdd
Tσ
/2)Tσ(r/X)ln(Sd
where
)N(dXe)N(dSC
12
2c0
1
2Tr
10c
A Nobel Formula (continued)
where N(d1), N(d2) = cumulative normal probability = annualized standard deviation (volatility) of the
continuously compounded return on the stock rc = continuously compounded risk-free rate
A Nobel Formula (continued)
A Digression on Using the Normal Distribution The familiar normal, bell-shaped curve
(Figure 5.5) See Table 5.1 for determining the normal probability
for d1 and d2. This gives you N(d1) and N(d2).
A Nobel Formula (continued)
A Numerical Example S0 = 30, X = 30, r = 4%, T = 0.5, = 0.40. See spreadsheet for calculations. C = $3.65.
A Nobel Formula (continued)
Characteristics of the Black-Scholes-Merton Formula Interpretation of the Formula
The concept of risk neutrality, risk neutral probability, and its role in pricing options
The option price is the discounted expected payoff, Max(0,ST - X). We need the expected value of ST - X for those cases where ST > X.
A Nobel Formula (continued)
Characteristics of the Black-Scholes-Merton Formula (continued) Interpretation of the Formula (continued)
The first term of the formula is the expected value of the stock price given that it exceeds the exercise price times the probability of the stock price exceeding the exercise price, discounted to the present.
The second term is the expected value of the payment of the exercise price at expiration.
A Nobel Formula (continued)
Characteristics of the Black-Scholes-Merton Formula (continued) The Black-Scholes-Merton Formula and the
Lower Bound of a European Call Recall that the lower bound would be
The Black-Scholes-Merton formula always exceeds this value as seen by letting S0 be very high and then let it approach zero.
)XeSMax(0, rT0
A Nobel Formula (continued)
Characteristics of the Black-Scholes-Merton Formula (continued) The Formula When T = 0
At expiration, the formula must converge to the intrinsic value.
It does but requires taking limits since otherwise it would be division by zero.
Must consider the separate cases of ST X and ST < X.
A Nobel Formula (continued)
Characteristics of the Black-Scholes-Merton Formula (continued) The Formula When S0 = 0
Here the company is bankrupt so the formula must converge to zero.
It requires taking the log of zero, but by taking limits we obtain the correct result.
A Nobel Formula (continued)
Characteristics of the Black-Scholes-Merton Formula (continued) The Formula When = 0
Again, this requires dividing by zero, but we can take limits and obtain the right answer
If the option is in-the-money as defined by the stock price exceeding the present value of the exercise price, the formula converges to the stock price minus the present value of the exercise price. Otherwise, it converges to zero.
A Nobel Formula (continued)
Characteristics of the Black-Scholes-Merton Formula (continued) The Formula When X = 0
Call price converges to the stock price. Here both N(d1) and N(d2) approach 1.0 so by
taking limits, the formula converges to S0.
A Nobel Formula (continued)
Characteristics of the Black-Scholes-Merton Formula (continued) The Formula When r = 0
A zero interest rate is not a special case and no special result is obtained.
“GREEKS” OF BLACK-SCHOLESASSOCIATED AUDIO CONTENT = APPROX 20
MINUTES (8 SLIDES)
Segment 6
Variables in the Black-Scholes-Merton Model
The Stock Price Let S then C . See Figure 5.6. This effect is called the delta, which is given by
N(d1). Measures the change in call price over the change
in stock price for a very small change in the stock price.
Delta ranges from zero to one. See Figure 5.7 for how delta varies with the stock price.
The delta changes throughout the option’s life. See Figure 5.8.
Variables in the Black-Scholes-Merton Model (continued)
The Stock Price (continued) Delta hedging/delta neutral: holding shares of stock
and selling calls to maintain a risk-free position The number of shares held per option sold is the delta,
N(d1). As the stock goes up/down by $1, the option goes
up/down by N(d1). By holding N(d1) shares per call, the effects offset.
The position must be adjusted as the delta changes.
Variables in the Black-Scholes-Merton Model (continued)
The Stock Price (continued) Delta hedging works only for small stock price
changes. For larger changes, the delta does not accurately reflect the option price change. This risk is captured by the gamma:
T2σS
eGamma Call
0
/2d21
Variables in the Black-Scholes-Merton Model (continued)
The Stock Price (continued) The larger is the gamma, the more sensitive is
the option price to large stock price moves, the more sensitive is the delta, and the faster the delta changes. This makes it more difficult to hedge.
See Figure 5.9 for gamma vs. the stock price See Figure 5.10 for gamma vs. time
Variables in the Black-Scholes-Merton Model (continued)
The Exercise Price Let X , then C The exercise price does not change in most
options so this is useful only for comparing options differing only by a small change in the exercise price.
Variables in the Black-Scholes-Merton Model (continued)
The Risk-Free Rate Let r then C See Figure 5.11. The effect is
called rho
See Figure 5.12 for rho vs. stock price.
)N(dTXe RhoCall 2rT
Variables in the Black-Scholes-Merton Model (continued)
The Volatility or Standard Deviation The most critical variable in the Black-Scholes-Merton
model because the option price is very sensitive to the volatility and it is the only unobservable variable.
Let , then C See Figure 5.13. This effect is known as vega.
See Figure 5.14 for the vega vs. the stock price. Notice how it is highest when the call is approximately at-the-money.
2
eTS vegaCall
/2-d0
21
Variables in the Black-Scholes-Merton Model (continued)
The Time to Expiration Calculated as (days to expiration)/365 Let T , then C . See Figure 5.15. This effect is
known as theta:
See Figure 5.16 for theta vs. the stock price Chance’s spreadsheet BSMbin7e.xls calculates the
delta, gamma, vega, theta, and rho for calls and puts (thus can use as useful check).
)N(dXer T22
eS- thetaCall 2
Trc
/2d0 c
21
EXTENSIONS TO BLACK-SCHOLESASSOCIATED AUDIO CONTENT = APPROX 27
MINUTES (8 SLIDES)
Segment 7
Black-Scholes-Merton Model When the Stock Pays Dividends
Known Discrete Dividends Assume a single dividend of Dt where the ex-dividend
date is time t during the option’s life. Subtract present value of dividends from stock price. Adjusted stock price, S, is inserted into the B-S-M
model:
See Table 5.3 for example. The Excel spreadsheet BSMbin7e.xls allows up to 50
discrete dividends.
rtt00 eDSS
Black-Scholes-Merton Model When the Stock Pays Dividends (continued)
Continuous Dividend Yield Assume the stock pays dividends continuously at the
rate of . Subtract present value of dividends from stock price.
Adjusted stock price, S, is inserted into the B-S model.
See Table 5.4 for example. This approach could also be used if the underlying is a
foreign currency, where the yield is replaced by the continuously compounded foreign risk-free rate.
The Excel spreadsheet BSMbin7e.xls permit you to enter a continuous dividend yield.
T00 eSS
Black-Scholes-Merton Model and Some Insights into American Call Options
Table 5.5 illustrates how the early exercise decision is made when the dividend is the only one during the option’s life
The value obtained upon exercise is compared to the ex-dividend value of the option.
High dividends and low time value lead to early exercise.
Chance’s Excel spreadsheet will calculate the American call price using the binomial model.
Estimating the Volatility
Historical Volatility This is the volatility over a recent time
period. Collect daily, weekly, or monthly returns on
the stock. Convert each return to its continuously
compounded equivalent by taking ln(1 + return). Calculate variance.
Annualize by multiplying by 250 (daily returns), 52 (weekly returns) or 12 (monthly returns). Take square root.
Estimating the Volatility (continued)
Implied Volatility This is the volatility implied when the market
price of the option is set to the model price. Figure 5.17 illustrates the procedure. Substitute estimates of the volatility into the
B-S-M formula until the market price converges to the model price.
A short-cut for at-the-money options is
T(0.398)S
C
0
Estimating the Volatility (continued)
Implied Volatility (continued) Interpreting the Implied Volatility
The relationship between the implied volatility and the time to expiration is called the term structure of implied volatility. See Figure 5.18.
The relationship between the implied volatility and the exercise price is called the volatility smile or volatility skew. Figure 5.19. These volatilities are actually supposed to be the same. This effect is puzzling and has not been adequately explained.
The CBOE has constructed indices of implied volatility of one-month at-the-money options based on the S&P 100 (VIX) and Nasdaq (VXN). See Figure 5.20.
Put Option Pricing Models
Restate put-call parity with continuous discounting
Substituting the B-S-M formula for C above gives the B-S-M put option pricing model
N(d1) and N(d2) are the same as in the call model.
rT00e0e XeSX)T,,(SC),,(P XTS
)]N(d[1S)]N(d[1XeP 102rT
Put Option Pricing Models (continued)
The Black-Scholes-Merton price does not reflect early exercise. A binomial model would be necessary to get an accurate price. effect of the input variables on the Black-Scholes-Merton put formula.
Chance’s spreadsheet also calculates put prices and Greeks.
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