filloux filloux
DESCRIPTION
Presentation at the INMA seminar in Copenhagen "Re-creating Value in An Age of Abundance".TRANSCRIPT
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Time to pay? paywalls: mirage or oasis?
frederic filloux copenhagen, february 4th, 2010
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why now ?
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after all...
...we were all advocate of the free model
it had its virtue: universal access / visibilility
readers participation
incoming linking / Google-friendliness
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(Alan Rusbridger, Guardian's editor)
"If you erect a universal pay wall around your content then it follows you are turning away from a world of openly shared content." ...
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(Alan Rusbridger, Guardian's editor)
" (...) Editorially it is about the most fundamental statement anyone could make about how newspapers see themselves in relation to the newly-shaped world."
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why now ?
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a chain reaction
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1. the adverstising
crash
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the failure of the ad model
CPM are lower then ever
click-through rate never took off
endless inventories are pushing prices further down with ad networks acting as bottom feeders
Google is sucking up revenues
design flaw: web publishers are caught in some inherent contradiction
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the failure of the ad model
CPM are lower then ever
click-through rate never took off
endless inventories pushes prices further down with ad networks acting as bottom feeders
design flaw web publishers are caught in some inherent contradiction
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the failure of the ad model
CPM are lower then ever
click-through rate never took off
endless inventories pushes prices further down with ad networks acting as bottom feeders
design flaw web publishers are caught in some inherent contradiction
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three main causes 1. a non credible audience mesurement
Nielsen, ComScore, Quantcast are just disasters
2. a lack of creativity from the advertising community with very little innovation in ad packages
3. an individualistic approach by publishers unable to cooperate left plenty of room for bad players. Among them...
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...the classifieds pure players
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(Francis Morel, CEO of Le Figaro)
"In the early nineties, the newspaper’s revenue from classifieds was about €150m per year. Now, it is €12m..."
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the classifieds consumption (an example on the French market)
Le Monde : 16 mn per viewer
and 19 pageviews per month
(at the same time, facebook : > 4hrs 31mn and > 530 PV)
(source : NNR France Dec 09)
leboncoin.fr (free classifieds): 1hr 02mn per viewer
177 pageviews /mo
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2. the Facebook/
Google sucking effect
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going up: Global time spent on social networks
in Dec. 09: +82%
+200% on the US market alone
Time spent on Google in the US:
+43%
money is shifting: between Aug. 2008 and Aug. 2009: amount invested online on the US
market : -2% share invested on social networks:
+119% source: NNR
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...going down:
time spent on newspapers web sites :
Nov. 2006: 42 min
per mo. and per visit
Nov. 2009: 32 mn
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3. consequence: the collapse of
the Arpu
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a massive revenue depletion on print but also online
since 2005, US newspapers have lost 57% of
their print advertising revenue
online advertising, lost 26% since the peak of Q4
2007
over the last 4 years, each gain of
one dollar on digital translated into a loss of
55 dollars on print
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(Clay Shirky, Professor NYU
"The old models are breaking faster than the new models can be put into place..."
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revenue per reader
$612 per year per buyer $200 per year per reader
$10-12 per year per Unique visitor
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revenue per reader
a web viewer brings 16-20 times less than a print reader
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looking at others ARPUs
$7-10
3 $
$1.5
$0.85
$1.5 $15 (20-30 times less than a
mobile carrier)
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(Chris Anderson, author of the bestseller "Free!)
"..Free is not enough. It also has to be matched with Paid..."
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here we are!
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time to squezze out of the user (someway)
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two ideas: • no audiences are made equal • the necessity of an hybrid approach
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fragmented audiences
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the monetization
young audiences: free is critical OK for invasive ads and giving up private data
mature audiences: more reluctance to ads but more willingness to pay
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the platform
different device for:
each type of audience
each kind of news content: breaking news, features, services
each type of use: home, office, commuting
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the hybrid approach
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choosing its audience
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[principle]: "... free for the audience I pick, paid-for for the ones who choose me..."
‣ geomarketing
‣ chronomarketing
‣ audience analysis
choosing its audience
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new model will combine:
free and paid-for
print and electronic medias
three legs: advertising subscription pay-per-view (or metered system)
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the paid-for option: 5 ways to reverse the free trend
target the heaviest users
focus on the type of uses not on the old "basic vs.premium" principle
offer a better user experience
find a "fricton free" payment system
diversify the platforms
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willingness to pay
how much and how many? the notion of average is meaningless; for instance:
Italy
Norway
Australia
$4
$/mo 5 10 15
$11
$7 $16
$3 $9 49%
60%
62%
source : BCG
‘‘know your 20/80“