ff april 2013

Fast FactsFast FactsLEADERSHIP WITH FACTS

SOUTH AFRICAN INSTITUTE OF RACE RELATIONS

FOUNDED 1929

Published by the South African Institute of Race Relations with the fi nancial assistance of the Friedrich Naumann Foundationfor Liberty, the International Republican Institute, and the National Endowment for Democracy.

ISSN 1019-2514 SAIRR internal reference: PD04/2013

No 04/2013 / April 2013Find us on-line @ http://www.sairr.org.za

Editor-in-ChiefJohn Kane-Berman

EditorLucy Holborn

TypesetterMartin Matsokotere

P O Box 291722, Melville,Johannesburg, 2109 South Africa

Contents PropertyThe Government is using its own failures on land reform to justify a reworked Expropriation Bill. 1

GovernmentEighteen years at a glance: The changing state of the nation since 1994. More than 80 indica-tors help you to assess the coun-trys and the Governments performance. 2-4

Budget 2013Our annual budget analysis contains tables showing long and very long-term trends. 5-11

Fast Stats 1217

Property

T he Government has used the 100th anniversary of the Land Act of 1913 to release a new Expropriation Bill (the Bill). This is better than its 2008 predecessor but still threatens the property rights of all South Africans, not only commercial farmers.

The earlier expropriation bill of 2008 was evidently unconstitutional in attempting to prevent the courts from deciding the compensation due. The new Bill is more canny.

It gives the courts full power to decide on just and equitable compensation, based on market value and four further factors, as the Constitution requires. However, while the Bill appears to be making a vital concession with one hand, in practice most of the benefi t of this is removed with the other.

The new Bill still makes it possible for virtually all organs of state to expropriate property of all kinds and to take possession of it before any compensation has been paid. It also states that compensation becomes payable only once its amount has been agreed with the State or decided by the courts.

These provisions coupled with clogged court rolls and the costs of litigation will put pressure on expropriated owners to accept whatever compensation the State might offer.

By contrast, the Expropriation Act of 1976, which the proposed new act will replace, requires the State to pay market value, along with damages for all resulting loss and an additional percentage as a solatium or solace. It also requires the Government to pay 80% of the compensation due at the time it takes possession. These are essential safeguards against abuse of the power to expropriate.

The new Bill, like its 2008 predecessor, seeks to jettison them. More expropriations, not limited to land, will surely follow.

The Government is using the injustice of the 1913 Land Act and its own failures on land reform to erode the property rights of all South Africans.

The Bill is clearly one of the more radical policies the ruling party wants to advance the second phase of its national democratic revolution.

The Government is using its own failures on land reform to justify a reworked Expropriation Bill. This is better than its 2008 predecessor, but will still encourage expro-priation by shedding core safeguards in the current legislation.

ENCOURAGING EXPROPRIATION

Anthea Jeffery

Subscribers, MPs and MPLs are

encouraged to make use of our

Contact

Tamara Dimant, Head of Information

(011) 482-7221

fax (011) 482-7920

or e-mail: [email protected]

INFORMATION

SERVICE

Fast Facts April 2013

South African Institute of Race Relations

2

GOVERNMENT

Eighteen years at a glanceThe changing state of the nation since 1994

1994a 2012a Change

Demographics

Population 38.6m 51.7m 34.7%

Births to total population* 2.4% 1.8% -25.0%

Deaths to births* 29.4% 57.3% 94.9%

Human Development Index 0.644 0.629 -2.3%

Economy

Real GDP per head R28 536 R37 476 31.3%

Gross domestic fixed investment to GDP* 15.2% 19.2% 26.3%

Headline inflation (CPI) 9.2% 5.6% -39.1%

Saving to disposable income of households* 2.7% 0.0% -100.0%

Household debt to disposable income of households* 56.5% 75.7% 34.0%

Gross domestic saving to GDP* 16.8% 13.2% -21.4%

Private business investment to total* 71.2% 63.0% -11.5%

Rands per euro R4.21 R10.55 -62.5%b

Rands per pound R5.44 R13.01 -55.6%b

Rands per dollar R3.55 R8.21 -57.1%b

Index of real effective exchange rate 121.05 104.09 -14.0%

Average London gold price (per ounce) $384 $1 668 334.4%

Average London gold price (per ounce) R1 363 R13 709 905.8%

Platinum price (per ounce) $405 $1 550 282.7%

Platinum price (per ounce) R1 439 R12 721 784.0%

Brent crude oil price (per barrel) $15.82 $111.80 606.7%

Public financec

Revenue to GDP* 21.9% 27.7% 26.5%

Expenditure to GDP* 24.7% 32.9% 33.2%

Company tax to GDP* 2.1% 5.5% 161.9%

Personal income tax to GDP* 7.8% 8.5% 9.0%

Top personal income tax rate 43.0% 40.0% -7.0%

Budget deficit to GDP* -5.6% -5.2% -7.1%

Domestic debt of government to GDP* 41.8% 38.1% -8.9%

Foreign debt of government to GDP* 1.2% 3.7% 208.3%

Total debt of government to GDP* 43.0% 41.8% -2.8%



3

GOVERNMENT

The changing state of the nation since 1994 (continued)

1994a 2012a Change

Employment and incomes

Unemployment rate (official) 20.0% 24.9% 24.5%

Unemployment rate (expanded) 31.5% 36.2% 14.9%

Unemployment number (official) 1 988 000 4 470 000 124.8%

Unemployment number (expanded) 3 672 000 7 623 000 107.6%

Blackd proportion of senior managers 4.0% 34.0% 750.0%

Blackd proportion of skilled staff 29.0% 52.0% 79.3%

Assets and incomes

African Gini co-efficient 0.54 0.56 3.7%

African average household income to white* 20.5% 18.9% -7.8%

African per capita income to white* 12.7% 13.0% 2.4%

People on less than $2 a day 6 809 986 1 361 421 -80.0%

Proportion on less than $2 a day 16.2% 2.7% -83.3%

Africans in relative poverty 15 986 276 17 595 418 10.1%

Proportion Africans in relative poverty 49.4% 44.6% -9.7%

Labour

Membership of registered trade unionse 3 412 645 3 057 772 -10.4%

Registered union membership as proportion of total employmente 45.2% 23.3% -48.5%

Education

Proportion of teachers qualified 64.0% 97.9% 53.0%

National senior certificate bachelor pass rate 18.0% 32.3% 79.4%

University and university of technology enrolment 528 135 892 936 69.1%

Tertiary degrees, diplomas, and certificates (undergraduate) awarded 85 989 160 627 86.8%

Health and welfare

Under-five mortality rate 62 48 -22.6%

TB cases per 100 000 people 90 292 340 559 277.2%

HIV-prevalence rate for population aged 20-64 1.5% 18.0% 1 100.0%

HIV infection rate of women attending public antenatal clinics 7.6% 29.5% 288.2%

Medical aid beneficiaries to total population* 17.7% 16.6% -6.2%

Social grant expenditure to GDPf* 2.9% 3.4% 17.2%

Number of child support grant beneficiariesg 800 476 11 406 000 1 324.9%

Value of child support granth (nominal) R190 R290 47.4%



4

GOVERNMENT

The changing state of the nation since 1994 (continued)

1994a 2012a Change

Living conditions

Households living in formal dwellings 5 834 819 11 219 247 92.3%

Proportion of households in formal dwellings 64.4% 77.6% 20.5%

Households living in informal dwellings 1 453 015 1 962 733 35.1%

Proportion of households in informal dwellings 16.2% 13.6% -16.0%

Households using electricity for lighting 58.2% 84.6% 45.4%

Households using electricity for cooking 47.1% 73.9% 56.9%

Households using electricity for heating 44.5% 58.8% 32.1%

Households with access to potable water 61.7% 93.8% 52.0%

Households with access to piped water in dwelling 43.9% 46.3% 5.5%

Households with access to flush or chemical lavatories 50.3% 62.6% 24.5%

Households using bucket system 4.7% 2.1% -55.3%

Housing backlog 1 946 335 2 154 000 10.7%

Crime and security

Murders per day 71 43 -39.4%

Aggravated robberies per day 232 277 19.2%

Residential burglaries per day 634 673 6.2%

Business burglaries per day 240 192 -20.0%

Theft of motor vehicles per day 290 162 -44.1%

Stock theft per day 130 85 -34.4%

Shoplifting per day 182 197 8.5%

Number of police officers murdered 265 81 -69.4%

Daily average prison population 110 047 162 162 47.4%

Awaiting-trial detainees to prison population* 24.3% 24.7% 1.6%

Degree of prison overcrowding 25.0% 2.0% -92.0%

Number of life sentences being served 433 8 556 1 876.0%

Number of active registered private security officers 115 331 411 109 256.5%

Politics and government

Voter turnout in local elections 6 200 000 13 664 914 120.4%

People thinking country is going in right direction 43% 38% -11.6%

Sources: Please refer to the 2012 South Africa Survey. Where possible, figures published have been updated.

a The first year cited is usually 1994, but sometimes a year or two later, depending on availability of data. The second year cited is usually 2012, but sometimes a year or two earlier or later, also depending on availability of data.

b Shows change as rand weakening.c Years are 1993/94 and 2012/13 revised estimate.d Black refers to African, coloured, and Indian employees.e Years are 1997 and 2010.f Years are 2003/04 and 2012/13.g Years are 2001 and 2012/13.h Years are 2005/06 and 2013/14. Value will increase to R300 in October 2013.* As a proportion of.



5

BUDGET 2013

The 2013 Budget tables were compiled by Tamara Dimant, Head of Information,phone (011) 482-7221 x 2016, fax 482-7690, e-mail [email protected]

Three-year spending breakdownBreakdown of consolidated national and provincial

spending by function and proportion, 2013/14-2015/16

2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Estimate Rbn

Proportion of total

Proportion of GDP

Proportion of GDP

Proportion of GDP

General public services 170.6 15.6% 4.8% 4.7% 4.6%

State debt cost 99.7 9.1% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8%

Defence 40.6 3.7% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1%

Public order and safetya 106.2 9.7% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8%

Police services 71.0 6.5% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9%

Law courts 17.0 1.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%

Prisons 18.1 1.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

Public order and safety not elsewhere classified 0.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Economic affairsa 121.4 11.1% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4%

General economic, commercial, and labour affairs 20.2 1.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5%

Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting 18.5 1.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

Fuel and energy 9.3 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

Mining, manufacturing, and construction 5.5 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

Transport 60.8 5.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8%

Communication 1.7 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Other industries 2.3 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Research and development economic affairs 1.8 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Economic affairs not elsewhere classified 1.3 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Environmental protection 5.0 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Housing and community amenitiesa 105.4 9.6% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

Housing development 30.0 2.7% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8%

Community development 64.2 5.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%

Water supply 10.7 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%

Housing and community amenities not elsewhere classified 0.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Health 137.7 12.6% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7%

Recreation and culture 8.7 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

Education 225.9 20.7% 6.4% 6.2% 6.1%

Social protection 171.5 15.7% 4.9% 4.8% 4.7%

TOTAL: MAIN BUDGETa 1 092.9 100.0% 31.0% 30.3% 29.5%

Contingency reserve 4.0 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%

TOTAL CONSOLIDATED EXPENDITUREa 1 096.9 31.2% 30.5% 29.8%

Source: National Treasury, Budget Review 2013; SAIRR calculations

a Figures should add up vertically but may not, owing to rounding.



6

BUDGET 2013

Cutting the cake over seven yearsBreakdown of consolidated national and provincial spending

as a proportion of total spending, 2009/102015/16

2009/10a 2010/11a 2011/12a 2012/13b 2013/14c 2014/15c 2015/16c

General public services 14.2% 14.7% 15.0% 15.2% 15.6% 15.6% 15.6%

State debt cost 7.3% 7.9% 8.3% 8.7% 9.1% 9.2% 9.4%

Defence 4.1% 3.7% 3.7% 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6%

Public order and safety 9.6% 9.9% 9.7% 9.8% 9.7% 9.5% 9.4%

Police services 6.4% 6.6% 6.5% 6.6% 6.5% 6.4% 6.3%

Law courts 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5%

Prisons 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6%

Economic affairs 15.3% 13.3% 11.6% 11.1% 11.1% 11.3% 11.4%

General economic, commercial, and labour affairs 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8%

Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6%

Fuel and energy 4.7% 3.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%

Mining, manufacturing, and construction 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6%

Transport 6.0% 5.8% 6.4% 5.7% 5.6% 5.8% 6.1%

Communication 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

Other industries 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

Research and development economic affairs 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

Economic affairs not elsewhere classified 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Environmental protection 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4%

Housing and community amenities 8.0% 8.9% 9.2% 9.5% 9.6% 9.8% 10.0%

Housing development 2.1% 2.4% 2.6% 2.6% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%

Community development 4.8% 5.5% 5.7% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 6.1%

Water supply 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.3%

Housing and community amenities not elsewhere classified

0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Health 11.9% 12.3% 12.7% 13.1% 12.6% 12.5% 12.4%

Recreation and culture 1.2% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7%

Education 19.8% 20.3% 21.3% 21.0% 20.7% 20.5% 20.5%

Social protection 15.6% 15.6% 15.4% 15.4% 15.7% 15.9% 15.9%

TOTAL: MAIN BUDGET 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Source: National Treasury, Budget Review 2013a Estimated outcome.b Revised estimate.c Budget estimate.



7

BUDGET 2013

Trends in consolidated spending

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

0

5

10

15

20

25

Education

Social protection

Health

Public order and safety

% of total

expenditure

Defence

Economic affairs

State debt cost

Key allocations as a proportion of the budget by function, 2009/102015/16

Major spending components by type, 2009/10-2015/16

Total increase As proportion of total spending

2013/14 Rbn

2013/14 2015/16

2009/10

2013/14

2015/16

Personnel 368.9 12.7% 31.8% 33.6% 32.7%

Goods and services 139.7 15.0% 13.6% 12.7% 12.6%

Interest and rent on land 99.9 18.5% 7.3% 9.1% 9.3%

Transfers and subsidies to: 436.2 17.5% 38.8% 39.8% 40.3%

Provinces and municipalities 87.9 18.4% 7.1% 8.0% 8.2%

Departmental agencies and accounts 88.4 16.0% 8.7% 8.1% 8.1%

Higher education institutions 22.6 17.0% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1%

Foreign governments and organisations 1.9 10.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

Public corporations and private enterprises 34.0 29.6% 3.1% 3.1% 3.5%

Non-profit institutions 28.5 10.2% 2.1% 2.6% 2.5%

Households 173.0 16.7% 15.6% 15.8% 15.9%

Total current 1 044.6 15.6% 91.5% 95.3% 94.9%

Total capital 45.3 14.3% 4.2% 4.1% 4.1%

Payments for financial assets 2.9 4.1% 4.3% 0.3% 0.2%

Contingency and other 4.0 148.1% 0.4% 0.8%

TOTAL CONSOLIDATED EXPENDITURE 1 096.9 16.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Source: National Treasury, Budget Review 2013

Source: National Treasury, Budget Review 2013, and the table on previous page



8

BUDGET 2013

Public sector infrustructure expenditure, 2011/122015/16

Total: 2013/14- 2015/16 % of

total

Change 2011/122015/16

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16Rbn

Outcome Budget Medium-term estimatesGeneral government 109.4 126.7 133.0 140.4 156.5 429.8 52.0% 43.0%National departments 6.6 10.8 11.2 14.0 14.3 39.6 4.8% 117.1%Provincial departments 43.4 43.8 46.2 49.4 52.1 147.7 17.9% 19.9%Municipalities 33.2 38.5 46.9 50.5 53.2 150.6 18.2% 59.9%Public-private partnershipsa 10.7 18.0 7.1 4.5 13.7 25.4 3.1% 28.0%Extra-budgetary institutionsb 15.4 15.7 21.5 21.9 23.2 66.6 8.0% 50.3%State-owned companiesc 98.9 129.2 129.8 130.7 136.7 397.2 48.0% 38.3%Total 208.3 255.9 262.8 271.1 293.2 827.1 100.0% 40.8%Proportion of GDP 7.0% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.9% 7.1% -2.0%GDP Rbn 2 973.3 3 209.1 3 520.3 3 880.4 4 270.8 11 671.5 43.6%

Source: National Treasury, Budget Review 2013; SAIRR calculationsa Public-private partnerships include project development funds, capital contributions and unitary payments.b Includes South African National Roads Authority (Sanral) non-toll infrastructure investment and the Trans-Caledon

Tunnel Authority, which are defined as non-financial public enterprises in South African Reserve Bank data.c Including Eskoms investment programme, Transnets investment programme, Sanral (excluding capex funded through

budget allocations from the fiscus), the Central Energy Fund, the Trans-Caledon Tunnel Authority, Rand Water, and other.

Expenditure breakdown by function

Economic services and

environment: 15.7%

Public order and safety: 9.6%Defence: 4.1%

Housing, water and

amenities: 8.0%

Health: 11.9%

Education, recreation

and culture: 21.0%

Social protection: 15.6%

General public services and

state debt cost: 14.2%

Economic services and

environment: 11.6%

Public order and

safety: 9.7%

Defence: 3.7%Housing, water and

amenities: 9.6%

Health: 12.6%

Education, recreation

and culture: 21.5%


General public services and

state debt cost: 15.6%

2009/10 2013/14

Expenditure breakdown by type

Personnel: 31.8%

Goods and services: 13.6%

Transfers to

households:

15.6%

Other transfers: 23.2%

Capital: 4.2%

Interest and rent

on land: 7.3%

Payments for financial

assets: 4.3%

Personnel: 33.6%

Goods and

services:

12.7%

Transfers to

households:

15.8%

Other transfers: 24.0%

Capital: 4.1%

Interest and rent

on land: 9.1%

Contingency and

other: 0.4%

Payments for financial

assets: 0.3%

2009/10 2013/14

Source: Information taken from National Treasury, Budget Review 2013, and the table on p7

Source: Information taken from National Treasury, Budget Review 2013, and the table on p7



9

BUDGET 2013

Medium-term and historical trends and projectionsConsolidated budget vs GDP, 2013/142015/16

2013/14 2014/15 2015/16Change

2013/142015/16Rbn

Budget revenue 985.7 1 091.1 1 199.8 21.7%Proportion of GDP 28.0% 28.1% 28.1% 0.4%Expenditure 1 149.4 1 244.3 1 334.1 16.1% Current payments 688.8 740.5 791.1 14.9% (Debt service cost 99.7 108.7 118.2 18.6%) Transfers and subsidies 375.6 406.0 437.6 16.5% Payments for capital assets 78.0 88.0 92.4 18.5% Payments for financial assets 2.9 3.3 3.0 3.4% Contingency reserve 4.0 6.5 10.0 150.0%Proportion of GDP 32.6% 32.1% 31.2% -4.3%Budget balance -163.7 -153.2 -134.4 -17.9%Proportion of GDP -4.6% -3.9% -3.1% -32.6%Gross domestic product 3 520.3 3 880.4 4 270.8 21.3%


Budget allocations by sphere of government, 2012/132015/162012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

RbnNational 413.1 452.5 489.5 521.7Provincial 388.5 414.2 441.7 474.4Local 77.0 84.7 91.6 101.5Allocated expenditurea 878.6 951.3 1 022.8 1 097.6Proportional breakdownNational 47.0% 47.6% 47.9% 47.5%Provincial 44.2% 43.5% 43.2% 43.2%Local 8.8% 8.9% 9.0% 9.2%Totala 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Source: National Treasury, Budget Review 2013a Figures should add up vertically but may not, owing to rounding. State debt cost and contingency reserve are

excluded.

Macro-economic performance projections, 200915

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Real growth: Actual Estimate ForecastFinal household consumption -1.6% 4.4% 4.8% 3.4% 3.1% 3.7% 3.9%Final government consumption 4.8% 5.0% 4.6% 3.9% 3.3% 3.3% 3.2%Gross fixed capital formation -4.3% -2.0% 4.5% 6.4% 5.7% 5.9% 6.5%Gross domestic expenditure -1.6% 4.4% 4.6% 4.1% 3.4% 3.9% 4.1%Exports of goods and services -19.5% 4.5% 5.9% 1.1% 3.9% 6.7% 7.2%Imports of goods and services -17.4% 9.6% 9.7% 7.2% 5.9% 7.2% 7.3%Real GDP growth -1.5% 3.1% 3.5% 2.5% 2.7% 3.5% 3.8%GDP at current prices (Rbn) 2 406 2 659 2 918 3 145 3 445 3 790 4 170Headline inflation (CPI) 7.1% 4.3% 5.0% 5.7% 5.6% 5.5% 5.4%Current account balance (as proportion of GDP) -4.0% -2.8% -3.4% -6.1% -6.2% -6.3% -6.0%




10

BUDGET 2013

Expenditure under the new constitution, 1994/952015/16

General publicservices and statedebt cost: 25.6%

Defence: 8.7%

Public order andsafety: 9.7%

Economicaffairs: 11.2%

Health: 10.5%

Education: 21.2%


Housing andcommunity

amenities: 3.4%

Recreation andculture: 0.5%

General public

services and state

debt cost: 15.6%Defence: 3.6%

Public order and

safety: 9.4%

Economic

affairs: 11.4%

Health: 12.4%

Education: 20.5%


Housing and

community

amenities: 10.0%

Environmental

protection: 0.4%

Recreation and

culture: 0.7%

1994/95 2015/16

Expenditure slices, 1994/95 and 2015/16

1994/95 2015/16 Change 1994/95 2015/16 Change 1994/95 2015/16 Change

Rbn

General public services 38.0 197.0 418% 25.6% 15.6% -39.2% 7.6% 4.6% -39.5%

State debt cost 24.9 118.2 375% 16.8% 9.4% -44.1% 5.0% 2.8% -44.0%

Defence 12.9 45.5 253% 8.7% 3.6% -58.6% 2.6% 1.1% -57.7%

Public order and safetya 14.4 118.4 722% 9.7% 9.4% -3.3% 2.9% 2.8% -3.4%

Police services 10.2 79.2 676% 6.9% 6.3% -8.5% 2.1% 1.9% -9.5%

Law courts 1.6 19.0 1 088% 1.1% 1.5% 38.9% 0.3% 0.4% 33.3%

Prisons 2.6 20.0 669% 1.8% 1.6% -8.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%

Economic affairs 16.6 144.2 769% 11.2% 11.4% 1.8% 3.3% 3.4% 3.0%

Health 15.6 156.6 904% 10.5% 12.4% 17.8% 3.1% 3.7% 19.4%

Education 31.4 258.7 724% 21.2% 20.5% -3.2% 6.3% 6.1% -3.2%

Social protection 13.7 200.1 1 361% 9.2% 15.9% 72.0% 2.8% 4.7% 67.9%

Housing and community amenitiesa 5.0 126.7 2 434% 3.4% 10.0% 196.4% 1.0% 3.0% 200.0%

Housing development 1.6 33.9 2 019% 1.1% 2.7% 150.1% 0.3% 0.8% 166.7%

Community development 2.2 76.4 3 373% 1.5% 6.1% 310.9% 0.4% 1.8% 350.0%

Water supply 1.2 15.8 1 217% 0.8% 1.3% 60.6% 0.2% 0.4% 100.0%

Environmental protection 5.3 0.4% 0.1%

Recreation and culture 0.7 9.5 1 257% 0.5% 0.7% 48.2% 0.1% 0.2% 100.0%

Total: main budgeta 148.2 1 262.0 752% 100.0% 100.0% 29.8% 29.5% -1.0%

Contingency reservea 10.0 0.2%

TOTAL CONSOLIDATED EXPENDITUREa 148.2 1 272.0 758% 29.8% 29.8% 0.0%

Source: National Treasury, Budget Review 2013; Survey 1995/96; SAIRR calculations

a Figures should add up vertically but may not, owing to rounding.

Proportion of total Proportion of GDP



11

BUDGET 2013

Long-term trends: the growing tax takeNational government finance as a percentage of GDP, 19612016

Yeara Revenue Expenditure Deficit/surplus

1961 14.7 16.3 -1.61962 14.2 16.6 -2.51963 14.7 17.2 -2.41964 15.4 17.2 -1.81965 15.9 19.2 -3.31966 16.2 19.3 -3.21967 16.2 20.2 -4.01968 16.7 20.2 -3.51969 15.7 18.9 -3.21970 16.8 19.8 -3.01971 16.8 20.1 -3.31972 18.0 23.5 -5.51973 18.5 22.3 -3.91974 19.3 21.2 -1.91975 19.1 21.9 -2.81976 19.7 24.4 -4.71977 20.2 26.3 -6.11978 20.5 26.0 -5.51979 20.4 24.9 -4.41980 20.2 23.3 -3.11981 21.2 21.4 -0.11982 20.2 22.4 -2.11983 21.2 23.4 -2.21984 20.5 23.7 -3.21985 21.5 24.8 -3.31986 23.8 26.1 -2.31987 22.5 26.9 -4.41988 22.2 27.2 -5.0

Yeara Revenue Expenditure Deficit/surplus1989 23.5 27.0 -3.51990 25.1 26.5 -1.41991 24.0 25.9 -1.91992 22.6 26.3 -3.71993 21.7 28.9 -7.31994 21.9 27.5 -5.61995 22.5 27.1 -4.61996 22.5 27.7 -5.11997 23.0 27.9 -5.01998 23.4 27.1 -3.71999 24.2 26.9 -2.82000 23.7 25.8 -2.12001 22.7 24.6 -1.92002 23.7 25.1 -1.42003 23.2 24.2 -1.12004 22.9 25.2 -2.32005 24.0 25.4 -1.52006 25.5 25.8 -0.32007 26.3 25.7 0.72008 27.0 26.1 0.92009 26.5 27.2 -0.72010 27.1 33.6 -6.52011 27.7 32.1 -4.42012 28.1 32.1 -3.92013 27.7 32.9 -5.22014 28.0 32.6 -4.62015 28.1 32.1 -3.92016 28.1 31.2 -3.1

1961

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Revenue Expenditure

2016

1978

1988

1993

1997

2003

2001

2010

%

Source: SARB, time series data; National Treasury, Budget Review 2013

a Fiscal year. 2009/10-2015/16 Budget 2013 data. Worst year Best year

FAST STATS

Fast Facts April 2013South African Institute of Race Relations 12

LABOUR LOGLabour participation rate 4Q 2012 (supply) 54.6% 4Q 2011: 54.3% Stats SA/QLFS

Labour absorption rate 4Q 2012 (demand) 41.0% 4Q 2011: 41.3% Stats SA/QLFS

Public sector employment 3Q 2012 up 6.4% compared to 3Q 2011 SARB

Private sector employment 3Q 2012 down 2.0% compared to 3Q 2011 SARB

Employment change (annualised) (Feb) 0.1% since Jan 2013 Adcorp

formal sector -0.9% since Jan 2013 Adcorp

informal sector 2.1% since Jan 2013 Adcorp

permanent -1.4% since Jan 2013 Adcorp

temporary 0.3% since Jan 2013 Adcorp

Total employment 4Q 2012 13 577 000 4Q 2011: 13 497 000 Stats SA/QLFS

Change in total employment 80 000 4Q 2012 vs 4Q 2011 Stats SA/QLFS

agriculture 55 000 4Q 2012 vs 4Q 2011 Stats SA/QLFS

mining 30 000 4Q 2012 vs 4Q 2011 Stats SA/QLFS

manufacturing -59 000 4Q 2012 vs 4Q 2011 Stats SA/QLFS

utilities 17 000 4Q 2012 vs 4Q 2011 Stats SA/QLFS

construction 4 000 4Q 2012 vs 4Q 2011 Stats SA/QLFS

trade -139 000 4Q 2012 vs 4Q 2011 Stats SA/QLFS

transport 28 000 4Q 2012 vs 4Q 2011 Stats SA/QLFS

fi nance 65 000 4Q 2012 vs 4Q 2011 Stats SA/QLFS

community and social services 126 000 4Q 2012 vs 4Q 2011 Stats SA/QLFS

private households -42 000 4Q 2012 vs 4Q 2011 Stats SA/QLFS

Employees in non-farm enterprises registered for income tax up 1.0% Dec 2012 vs Dec 2011 Stats SA/QES

Number of such employees up 82 000 to 8 461 000 Stats SA/QES

Net employment (hiring intentions) outlook 2Q 2013 +2% 2Q 2012: 0% Manpower

Unemployment rate 4Q 2012 (offi cial) 24.9% 4Q 2011: 23.9% Number: 4.5 million

Unemployment rate 4Q 2012 (expanded including discouraged) 35.9% 4Q 2011: 35.4% Number: 7.6 million

Nominal wages per worker 3Q 2012 up 8.1% compared to 3Q 2011 SARB

Real wages per worker 3Q 2012 up 3.3% compared to 3Q 2011 SARB

Nominal remuneration/worker public 3Q 2012 up 8.7% compared to 3Q 2011 SARB

Nominal remuneration/worker private 3Q 2012 up 7.5% compared to 3Q 2011 SARB

Real remuneration/worker public 3Q 2012 up 3.8% compared to 3Q 2011 SARB

Real remuneration/worker private 3Q 2012 up 2.7% compared to 3Q 2011 SARB

Labour productivity 3Q 2012 up 1.3% compared to 3Q 2011 SARB

Nominal unit labour costs 3Q 2012 up 6.7% compared to 3Q 2011 SARB

Compensation of employees to GDP (at factor cost) 2012 51.8% 2011: 51.5% SARB

Average monthly earnings (Nov 2012) R14 386 Nov 2011: R13 214 Stats SA/QES

Average wage settlements 2012 7.6% 2011: 7.7% Andrew Levy

Number of strike mandays 2012 3.5m 2011: 6.2m Andrew Levy

FAST STATS


SOCIO-ECONOMIC SCOREBOARDTotal population 2011 (Census) 51.8m 2001: 44.8m Stats SA

GDP per head 2012 R60 505 current prices SARB

Real growth in GDP per head 2012 1.5% 2011: 2.3% SARB

Household saving to disposable income 2012 0.0% 2011: -0.2% SARB

Household debt to disposable income 2012 75.7% 2011: 76.2% SARB

Household debt-service cost to disposable income 2012 6.6% 2011: 6.9% SARB

INVESTMENT INDEXReal gross fi xed capital formation (GFCF) 2012 R394.5bn up 5.7% compared to 2011

GFCF GDP 2012 19.2% 2011: 19.0% (Target 25%)

Gross domestic saving GDP 2012 13.2% 2011: 16.1%

Real GFCF by public authorities up 8.5% 2012 vs 2011

by public corporations up 9.1% 2012 vs 2011

by private business up 3.9% 2012 vs 2011

Real GFCF in mining and quarrying up 4.3% 2012 vs 2011

in manufacturing up 3.9% 2012 vs 2011

in electricity, gas and water up 14.2% 2012 vs 2011

in transport and communication up 4.4% 2012 vs 2011

in fi nance etc up 3.7% 2012 vs 2011

in community, social and personal services up 8.1% 2012 vs 2011

Real GFCF in residential buildings up 3.1% 2012 vs 2011

in non-residential buildings up 1.7% 2012 vs 2011

in construction works up 3.7% 2012 vs 2011

in transport equipment up 18.3% 2012 vs 2011

in machinery and equipment up 4.0% 2012 vs 2011

Foreign investment into SA 2012

direct (FDI) R37.5bn 2011: R43.6bn

portfolio R94.7bn 2011: R45.9bn

other R65.7bn 2011: R43.0bn

SA investment abroad 2012

direct -R35.9bn 2011: R1.9bn

portfolio -R40.0bn 2011: -R62.2bn

other R40.4bn 2011: -R13.4bn

Balance on fi nancial account 2012 R162.4bn 2011: R58.7bn

Equities net purchases/sales by foreigners (this year to Feb) R8.4bn Jan-Feb 2012: -R7.9bn

Bonds net purchases/sales by foreigners (this year to Feb) R9.8bn Jan-Feb 2012: R10.6bn

FAST STATS


HOUSING HIGHLIGHTSHouse Price Index (nominal) (medium size) (Feb) up 10.6% compared to Feb 2012 Absa

House Price Index (real) (Jan) up 4.7% compared to Jan 2012 Absa

Mortgage advances (Feb) up 1.6% compared to Feb 2012 SARB

Houses built smaller than 81m2 (Jan) down 15.3% compared to Jan 2012 Stats SA

House price trends (nominal) (average) 4Q 2012

Affordable houses (4079m2/priced at under R500 000) up 6.6% compared to 4Q 2011 Absa

Small houses (80140m2/R777 743) (average price) up 12.0% compared to 4Q 2011 Absa

Medium houses (141220m2/R1 066 196) up 8.0% compared to 4Q 2011 Absa

Large houses (221400m2/R1 552 608) up 3.3% compared to 4Q 2011 Absa

All houses (80400m2/R1 105 092) up 5.3% compared to 4Q 2011 Absa

Luxury housing (costing more than R3.6m) down 2.2% compared to 4Q 2011 Absa

Greater Johannesburg (80400m2/R1 154 949) down 2.1% compared to 4Q 2011 Absa

Cape Town metro (80400m2/R1 242 929) up 1.3% compared to 4Q 2011 Absa

Durban metro (80400m2/R1 101 313) up 9.6% compared to 4Q 2011 Absa

PE/Uitenhage metro (80400m2/892 251) up 0.7% compared to 4Q 2011 Absa

Cost of building a new house (average) up 5.1% compared to 4Q 2011 Absa

INFLATION INDEXHeadline infl ation rate (Feb 2013 vs Feb 2012) 5.9% same period previous year: 6.1%

Housing and utilities (24.52%)* 5.9% 6.6%

Transport (16.43%)* 5.5% 6.8%

Food and non-alcoholic beverages (15.41%)* 6.1% 9.6%

Insurance and other services (14.72%)* 7.5% 5.5%

Household contents and services (4.79%)* 3.2% 2.3%

Alcohol and tobacco (5.43%)* 7.9% 6.4%

Recreation and culture (4.09%)* 3.6% 0.3%

Clothing and footwear (4.07%)* 3.2% 3.7%

Communication (2.63%)* 0.1% -1.6%

Restaurants and hotels (3.50%)* 7.2% 5.6%

Education (2.95)* 8.9% 8.6%

Health (1.46%)* 4.4% 5.1%

Rise in administered (non-market) prices 8.9% 11.7%

Infl ation without administered prices 5.3% 5.1%

CPI for primary urban areas (larger cities/towns) 5.8% 6.0%

CPI for secondary urban areas (smaller towns) 6.0% 6.6%

CPI for rural areas 5.8% 7.4%

Producer price rise (PPI) 5.4% 8.3%

Imported producer infl ation 4.3% 13.0%

* Weighting

FAST STATS

Fast Facts April 2013South African Institute of Race Relations 15South African Institute of Race Relations 15

BUSINESS BAROMETERLeading business indicator (Jan) up 1.2% on same period previous year SARB

Use of manufacturing production capacity 2012 81.7% 2011: 80.2% Stats SA

Manufacturing production (volume) (Jan) up 3.9% on same period last year Stats SA

Total vehicles sold (this year to Mar): 163 092 up 4.1% on same period last year NAAMSA

Vehicles exported (this year to Mar): 72 810 up 25.3% on same period last year NAAMSA

Tractors sold (this year to Feb): 1 511 down 5.0% on same period last year SAAMA

Electricity consumed (Jan) down 4.1% on same period last year Stats SA

Total building plans passed (value) (Jan) up 33.0% on same period last year Stats SA

Total buildings completed (value) (Jan) up 3.1% on same period last year Stats SA

All building costs (average) 4Q 2012 up 8.9% compared to 4Q 2011 BER

Cement sales (tonnes) 2012 up 2.9% compared to 2011 CCI

Mining production (volume) (Jan) up 7.3% on same period last year Stats SA

Retail sales (value) (Jan) up 1.9% on same period last year Stats SA

Wholesales (value) (Jan) up 6.8% on same period last year Stats SA

Current adspend 2012: R34.3bn up 7.0% compared to 2011 A C Nielsen

Number of liquidations (this year to Feb): 516 up 29.0% on same period last year Stats SA

Judgements for debt (Jan): 25 685 down 27.1% on same period last year Stats SA

Tourism accommodation occupancy rate (Jan) 42.5% Jan 2012: 41.4% Stats SA

Overseas tourists 2012: 2 505 762 up 15.1% compared to 2011 Stats SA

BETTER: 15 WORSE: 4

CONFIDENCE COUNTRMB/BER business confi dence index 1Q 2013 up 6 points to 52 since 4Q 2012 (scale 0100)

Sacci business confi dence index (Mar) down 2.6 points to 90.4 since Feb 2013 (2010 = 100)

BER/DTI manufacturing confi dence index 4Q 2012 up 5 points to 38 since 3Q 2012 (scale 0100)

FNB/BER building confi dence index 4Q 2012 up 6 points to 32 since 3Q 2012 (scale 0100)

BER building contractors confi dence index 4Q 2012 up 2 points to 28 since 3Q 2012 (scale 0100)

FNB/BER civil construction index 4Q 2012 down 6 points to 36 since 3Q 2012 (scale 0100)

Consumer fi nancial vulnerability index 4Q 2012 up 2.2 points to 50.1 since 3Q 2012 (scale 0100) FinMark/BMR

Ernst&Young/BER fi nancial services index 4Q 2012 up 4 points to 86 since 3Q 2012 (scale 0100)

E&Y/BER consumer confi dence index 4Q 2012 down 2 points to -3 since 3Q 2012 (scale minus 100100)

black consumer confi dence index 4Q 2012 down 3 points to 4 since 3Q 2012 (scale minus 100100)

white consumer confi dence index 4Q 2012 down 4 points to -16 since 3Q 2012 (scale minus 100100)

high-income household confi dence index 4Q 2012 down 4 points to -1 since 3Q 2012 (scale minus 100100)

low-income household confi dence index 4Q 2012 down 13 points to -15 since 3Q 2012 (scale minus 100100)

Kagiso purchasing managers index (PMI) (Mar) down 4.3 points to 49.3 since Feb 2013 (2000 = 100) BER

Sacci trade activity index (TAI) (Feb) down 5 points to 49 since Jan 2013 (scale 0100)

Sacci trade expectations index (TEI) (Feb) down 2 points to 63 since Jan 2013 (scale 0100)

FNB/TBCSA tourism business index (TBI) 4Q 2012 up 3.6 points to 104.6 since 3Q 2012 (scale 0200)

Vehicle sales confi dence indicator 4Q 2012 no change from 6.0 since 3Q 2012 (scale 110) WesBank

Agricultural business confi dence index 4Q 2012 up 13.1 points to 64.35 compared to 4Q 2011 (2001=50) ABC/IDC

BETTER: 8 UNCHANGED: 1 WORSE: 10


FAST STATS

ECONOMIC BAROMETERGDP 2012 (basic prices) R2 835bn

GDP growth at market prices 2012 2.5% 2011: 3.5%

Agriculture (2.6% of GDP) 2.3% Trade etc (16.0%) 3.6%

Mining (9.3%) -4.0% Transport and communication (9.1%) 2.3%

Manufacturing (12.4%) 2.4% Finance etc (21.5%) 3.3%

Electricity and water (2.8%) -1.2% Community services (5.9%) 2.1%

Construction (4.0%) 2.5% Government (16.6%) 3.1%

Non-farm GDP growth 2012 2.4% 2011: 3.4%

Government consumption expenditure growth 2012 4.2% 2011: 4.6%

Government capital expenditure growth 2012 8.5% 2011: 8.6%

Public sector expenditure to GDP 2012 29.8% 2011: 28.9%

Exports (this year to Feb) R116bn up 6% on same period in 2012

Imports (this year to Feb) R150bn up 12.8% on same period in 2012

Trade balance (this year to Feb) -R34bn Jan-Feb 2012: -R24bn

Gold and forex reserves (Feb) R451bn Feb 2012: R386bn

Reserves/imports (Feb) 6.3 to 1 Feb 2012: 6.0 to 1

Current account defi cit 2012 R198bn 2011: R99bn

as proportion of GDP 6.3% 2011: 3.4%

Capital account surplus 2012 R207bn 2011: R131bn

Gold price per ounce (average) (Mar) $1 592 Mar 2012: $1 674 (Decrease: 5.0%)

Gold price per ounce (average) (Mar) R14 620 Mar 2012: R12 752 (Increase: 14.6%)

Platinum price per ounce (average) (Mar) $1 581 Mar 2012: $1 656 (Decrease: 4.5%)

Platinum price per ounce (average) (Mar) R14 512 Mar 2012: R12 596 (Increase: 15.2%)

Crude oil price (brent/barrel) (Mar) $109 Mar 2012: $125 (Decrease: 12.8%)

Petrol (premium pump price per litre Gauteng) (Apr) R13.20 Apr 2012: R11.94 (Increase: 10.6%)

Growth in money supply (M3) (Feb) 7.7% Feb 2012: 5.9%

Change in private sector credit extension (Feb) 7.9% Feb 2012: 7.9%

Prime overdraft rate (average) 5/4/13 8.5% year ago: 9.0%

Real prime overdraft rate (average) (Feb) 2.5% Feb 2012: 2.7% (based on headline infl ation)

Repo rate (average) 5/4/13 5.0% year ago: 5.5%

/R 0.0840 /R 0.0723 $/R 0.1090 /R 10.331 /$ 0.7707 /$ 94.78 March 2013

R/ 11.9040 R/ 13.8354 R/$ 9.1747 R/ 0.0968 $/ 1.2975 $/ 0.0106 March 2013

Value of rand vs euro last 12/24/36 months -16%/-19%/-15% (Lowest: R/ 14.65 Highest: R/ 1.80)

Value of rand vs dollar last 12/24/36 months -17%/-25%/-19% (Lowest: R/$ 13.00 Highest: R/$ 0.67)

Value of rand vs pound last 12/24/36 months -13%/-19%/-19%

Value of rand vs yen last 12/24/36 months -5%/-13%/-15%

Rand vs basket last 12/24/36 months -15%/-21%/-18%

FAST STATS


Our Fast stats pages are compiled by Tamara Dimant, Head of Information, phone (011) 482-7221 x 2016,fax (011) 482-7690, e-mail [email protected]

These forecasts contain the highest and lowest estimates available to us.

LATEST FORECASTSCurrenta Previousb

GDP growth 2013 3.5% 3.4%

2.2% 2.2%

Headline infl ation rate (CPI) 2013 (average) 6.1% 6.0%

5.5% 5.5%

Expected CPI (business) 2013 (average) 6.6% 6.6% (trade unions) 6.1% 6.1%Producer price infl ation 2013 (average) 6.9% 6.3% 5.5% 5.1%Imported producer infl ation 2013 (average) 6.1% 0.0%Gross fi xed capital formation 2013 up 6.5% up 6.5%

up 3.5% up 4.5%

Final consumption expenditure by households 2013 up 3.3% up 3.3% up 2.6% up 2.6%Government consumption expenditure 2013 up 4.0% up 4.0%

up 2.7% up 3.3%

Gross domestic expenditure 2013 up 4.3% up 4.3%

up 3.1% up 3.2%

Exports 2013 up 5.3% up 5.6%

up 1.1% up 1.5%

Imports 2013 up 7.8% up 7.8% up 4.2% up 5.1%Current account defi cit 2013 Rbn R235bn R223bn R216bn R208bn as proportion of GDP 2013 6.8% 6.5% 5.0% 5.0%Capital account surplus 2013 R190bn R190bnPrime overdraft rate 2013 (year end) 9.0% 9.0%

8.5% 8.0%

R/ exchange rate 2013 (average) 12.36 11.88 10.68 10.20R/$ exchange rate 2013 (average) 9.31 8.94

8.90 8.26

Gold price per ounce 2013 (average) $1 720 $1 720

$1 630 $1 648

Nominal wage rise 2013 8.1% 7.7%Increase in total employment (including informal) 1.0% 1.1%Unemployment rate 2013 24.5% 24.5%

Sou rces: Absa; Bureau for Economic Research (BER); IMF; Investec; National Treasury; Nedbank; Reuters Econometer; RMB; SARB; Standard Bank. Detailed source information is available from [email protected]

a These forecasts contain the highest and lowest estimates available at the time of going to press.b These forecasts were the highest and lowest estimates published in last months Fast Facts.

Page 1 -- Leader (Property -- Encouraging expropriation) (04.04.2013)Page 2-4 -- Government (The changing state of the nation since 1994) (10.04.2012)Page 5-11 -- Budget 2013 (09.04.2013)Page 12 -- Labour log (April) (02.04.2013)Page 13 -- (Invest index + Socio-eco scoreboard (April) (03.04.2013)Page 14 -- (Housing + Inflation index) (April) (02.04.2013)Page 15 -- (Busi barometer + Con count) (April) (03.04.2013)Page 16 -- (Economic Barrometer) (April) (08.04.2013)Page 17 -- (Latest forecasts) (April) (04.04.13)

ff april 2013

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