U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey

FEWS NET Climate Change Data Sets and Analyses: Using

observations to guide adaptationChris FunkGary EilertsJim RowlandJim VerdinJoel MichaelsenLibby White

Gideon GaluAkhlalil AdoumNancy MutungaEverlyn MuchombaAbdulrahim Norein Emebet Kebebe Nigist Biru

U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey

Overview Upscaling What observed large scale climate changes do

we see? Downscaling

What observed local climate changes do we see?

Climate Trend Analyses Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda, Sudan, Chad, Niger, Mali,

Burkina Faso, Senegal

Future analyses: guiding agricultural adaptation & development?

Up

Down

1Research Timeline

2002

2005

2008

2011

Climate Attribution (why?)

Climate Trend Analyses

(what? where?)

Declining ‘LongCycle’ rainsw/Phil Steffen &Alemu Asfaw

Declining Rainsin Ethiopia andGHA

Warming Indian OceanReduces rainfall in GHA

Warming Indian OceanProbably anthropogenic

Declining RainsIn Kenya

Climate changeintensifies La Ninaimpacts

Trend mapping

Upscale 1

1Declining Per Capita Cereal Production

Upscale 2•http://www.springerlink.com/content/fw645377u3587404/fulltext.pdf

1Principal Components 1 and 2

Upscale 3

War

min

g in

the

wes

tern

Pac

ific

and

Indi

an O

cean

EN

SO

-like

Var

iatio

n

http://www.springerlink.com/content/u0352236x6n868n2/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1199/pdf/ofr2010-1199.pdf

1

PC1-PC2 disrupt water vapor transports

Upscale 4

PC1Indian-WesternPacific

PC2Central-EasternPacific

1

Precipitation in new La Niña years.

La Niña

←warming→

Upscale 5

1PC1 and PC2 time-series (smoothed)

Upscale 6Drought frequency for Central-Eastern Kenya and Southern Somalia

1Drought AND declining per capita agricultural production have contributed to the current food crisis

Upscale 7Rainfall and Ag data are for Kenya and Somalia

Drought once every six years

Drought every other yearClimate Index = PC1-PC2

U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey

Dataset – Foundation - Observations The core FEWS NET data set is a collection of 1344 precipitation stations

for the GHA and Sahel A secondary set of air temperature observations is much less

dense (179) stations

Downscale 1

U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey

Dataset – The FEWS NET Climatological Trend Analysis (FTA) Interpolat at-station change values

Builds on FCLIM techniques Allows for explicit calculation of interpolation standard errors Incorporates satellite data as ‘background fields’ guiding interpolations

Well-documented : ftp://chg.geog.ucsb.edu/pub/pubs/mapping_decadal_variations.pdf The book is currently being printed

Precipitation well specified Temperature is not Data set is available at:

ftp://hollywood.geog.ucsb.edu/pub/FEWSNETInformingClimateChangeAdaptationSeries/FCLIM_trends/

Downscale 2

11960-2009 Station Trends

Downscale 3 – FTA

MA M J

JJ A S

1Basically all stations indicate

rapid warming(~0.15 to 0.4°C per

decade)

Downscale 4 - FTA

1

Observed Trends

MAMJ P = Warming in IPA produces subsidence, reduced onshore moisture transports

JJAS P = Warming in IPA produces ridging across tropical Africa, reducing Congo airflows? ATL also important …

MAMJ, JJAS T = note similarityCause (?) related to subsidence warming and …

Downscale 5 - FTA

1Standard Error analysis of trend surfaces

Sigma = Trend divided by standard error

≈ signal to noise ratio

Downscale 6 - FTA

1FCLIM TS – JJAS rainfall for Ethiopia, Sudan and Northern Uganda

Downscale 7 – FCLIM TS

1Air temperatures have risen sharplymore than 1 standard deviation

Downscale 6 – FCLIM TS

1C

limat

e Tr

end

Rep

orts

12010/2011 Climate Adaptation Reports

•Kenya Complete http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2010/3074/pdf/fs2010-3074.pdf Sudan Complete http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2011/3072/pdf/FS2011-3072.pdfEthiopia Almost CompleteUganda Almost CompleteChad Almost CompleteNiger Almost CompleteBurkina Faso Almost CompleteMali Almost CompleteSenegal Almost CompleteMozambique – temperature affects on maize phenology Complete

Openfile report on Indian-Pacific trends Complete http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1199/pdf/ofr2010-1199.pdf

Email chris@geog.ucsb.edu if interestedIn seeing/commenting on almost complete reports

1

The

Big

Pic

ture

: Shr

inki

ng R

ains

Clim

ate

Tren

d R

epor

ts 2

Emerging Risk Area?

1Ethiopia - Shrinking Rains across the south

Clim

ate

Tren

d R

epor

ts 3 dense

pop

emergingrisk areas?

1

Ethiopia Rainfall TransectsC

limat

e Tr

end

Rep

orts

4

1Sudan - Shrinking rains and warmingair temperatures

Clim

ate

Tren

d R

epor

ts 5

U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey

Can we afford to NOT to support agricultural development?• To date, in FY11 the USG humanitarian aid to the Horn was $604 million• In 2009/2010 a 5 million dollar Worldbank project in Kenya led to

increased production of ~41,000 tons• Seed and fertilizer vouchers for 50,000 people• $122 per ton of maize

• Increasing 2011 production by 20% (472,800 tons) might cost around ~$58 million dollars• Theoretical percent hungry would drop by ~45%

• In FY2011 the US+WFP contributed ~141 million dollars in aid to Kenya, supplying 118,820 tons in aid.• Cost = $1,187 per ton

Gui

ding

Agr

icul

tura

l Dev

elop

men

t-1

1What can the early warning community contribute to the ag/pastoral development and climate adaptation communities?

Gui

ding

Agr

icul

tura

l Dev

elop

men

t-2

RemoteSensing

FoodEconomyEarly Warning

Ag/pastoral Development

• Targeting:• Where 1: Invest most in the most food insecure countries• Where 2: Smallholder farms in high potential areas• Where 3: Smallholder farms in high risk areas

• How: Must take into account climate variability/trends

1New dimensions guiding ag development for vulnerability reduction?

Gui

ding

Agr

icul

tura

l Dev

elop

men

t-3

Ag Opportunity (kg per €)

Ag

Exp

osur

e (r

ainf

all u

ncer

tain

ty)

vulne

rable

small

holde

rs

poverty reduction lower prices

vulne

rable

small

holde

rs

poverty reduction less food aid

1Guiding agricultural development for Ethiopia?

Analysis Of MODIS landcover data shows most ag expansion In south-central Ethiopia

Forest transition to crop Forest transition to crop+natural veg

Demographic inertialeads to expansion instressed & drying southern Ethiopia?

Is western Ethiopiaclimatically secure andagriculturally under-utilized?

Gui

ding

Agr

icul

tura

l Dev

elop

men

t-4

1Guiding agricultural development for Kenya?

Mean crop per drop map for Kenya (mean yield per MAMJ rainfall )

Demographic inertialeads to expansion in stressed & drying Central-eastern Kenya?

Is south-western Kenyaclimatically secure andagriculturally under-utilized?

Gui

ding

Agr

icul

tura

l Dev

elop

men

t-5

1Can we meet the MDG of halving the hungry ?

Gui

ding

Agr

icul

tura

l Dev

elop

men

t-6

2009: 32%

Increasing yieldsBy 20% reducesThe number of hungry by 45%

Decreasing yieldsby 20% increasesThe number of hungry by 38%

22%

44%

~$58 million dollars?

1Collaborative African Data Archive?G

uidi

ng A

gric

ultu

ral D

evel

opm

ent-7

• Collaborative archive not tied to a single institution• Satellite based data

• 0.05°, dekadal, continental, 1983-now• Rainfall – TARCAT + FCLIM• Vegetation – SPOT + AVHRR• Land Surface Temperatures (TIR)• PET

• Station integration• Tools for national/regional agencies to integrate data• Agencies to develop their own trend assessments

• Linked to early warning tools• SPIRITS, SERVIR, GeoWRSI, MARS Viewer, Agromet Shell

1Links to research

•Recent Drought Tendencies in Ethiopia and equatorial-subtropical eastern Africa, FEWS NET Special Report 2005 http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/adds/pubs/RecentDroughtTendenciesInEthiopia.pdf•Warming of the Indian Ocean threatens eastern and southern African food security but could be mitigated by agricultural development. Proceedings of the National Academy (2008) http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/adds/pubs/WarmingInTheIndianOceanThreatensEasternAndSouthernAfrica.pdf•Declining Global Per Capita Agricultural Capacity Production and Warming Oceans Threaten Food Security, Food Security (2009) http://www.springerlink.com/content/fw645377u3587404/fulltext.pdf•New satellite observations and rainfall forecasts help provide earlier warning of drought in Africa. The Earth Observer. http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/adds/pubs/Funk_EarthObserver_Jan_Feb09.pdf•Real-time Decision Support Systems: The Famine Early Warning System Network (2009) ftp://chg.geog.ucsb.edu/pub/pubs/RealtimeDSS_for_FEWS_NET_final.pdf•A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa, Climate Dynamics, 2011. http://www.springerlink.com/content/u0352236x6n868n2/. IP-024695.•Mapping recent decadal climate variations in Eastern Africa and the Sahel, 2011 ftp://chg.geog.ucsb.edu/pub/pubs/mapping_decadal_variations.pdf •A Climate Trend Analysis of Kenya-August 2010, USGS Fact Sheet 2010-3074: http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2010/3074/pdf/fs2010-3074.pdf •A Climate Trend Analysis of Sudan-July 2011, USGS Fact Sheet 2011-3072. http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2011/3072/pdf/FS2011-3072.pdf