fertility transition in islamic countries.pdf

Fertility Transition in Islamic Fertility Transition in Islamic Countries: Causes, Trends and Countries: Causes, Trends and

ConsequencesConsequencesConsequencesConsequences

Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi University of Tehran &

Australian National University

Symposium on the Impact of Demographic Change in Thailand, S l A B R 3 d Fl JW M i tt B k k Salon A-B Room, 3rd Floor, JW Marriott, Bangkok

27-28 April, 2011

Size of Muslim Population in the World,2009

Source: Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life / Mapping the Global Muslim Population, 2009

Regional Distribution of Muslims, 2009

•Muslim population in world 1.57 billion•Source: Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life / Mapping the Global Muslim Population, 2009

Concentration of Muslims by Region,2009

Source: Based on Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life / Mapping the Global Muslim Population, 2009

Countries with the Largest Number of Muslims, 2009

CountryNumber of Muslims Percentage of Population Percentage of World

Countrymillion that is Muslim Muslim Population

Indonesia 203 88.2% 12.9%Pakistan 174 96.3 11.1India 161 13 4 10 3India 161 13.4 10.3Bangladesh 145 89.6 9.3Egypt 79 94.6 5.0Nigeria 78 50.4 5.0

67.2 %

Nigeria 78 50.4 5.0Iran 74 99.4 4.7Turkey 74 ∼98.0 4.7Algeria 34 98.0 2.2Morocco 32 ∼99.0 ∼2Iraq 30 97.0 1.9Sudan 30 70.0 1.9

28 99 0 8Afghanistan 28 99.0 1.8Ethiopia 28 32.8 1.8Uzbekistan 26 88.0 1.7Saudi 25 99 6 1 6

15.9 %Saudi

Arabia 25 99.6 1.6Yemen 23 99.0 1.5China 22 2.0 1.4Syria 20 86 0 1 3

Source: Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life / Mapping the Global Muslim Population, 2009 & Pop. Data - 2009 CIA World Factbook & http://islam.about.com/od/muslimcountries/a/population.htm

Syria 20 86.0 1.3Russia 16 14.0 1.0

Muslims are defined as a unique Ummah nation

Muslim Populations: Unity in Diversity

Muslims are defined as a unique ummah nationummah nation,but are in some ways very y yheterogeneous:

Shia and Sunni sectsShia and Sunni sectsSpeak different languages, they belong to around 300 ethnic groups, and thus, g o p , ,exhibit many culturesDifference socio economic Difference socio-economic status

Sunni and Shia Populationsp

Around 87-90% are Sunni Muslims and 10-13% (154 to 200 million) are Shia

Most Shias (between 68% & 80%) ( )live in just four countries: Iran, Pakistan, India and Iraq.q

h hi d f h ld’ hiMore than a third of the world’s shia Muslims live in Iran

Population Dynamics in Population Dynamics in Muslim countriesMuslim countries

Rate of Natural Increase (%)in Muslim-majority countries, 1965-70 until 2005-2010

Kuwait

Yemen4 0

4.5

Burkina-Faso

Niger

Yemen

3.5

4.0

2 5

3.0

2.0

2.5

Sierra Leone World

1 0

1.5

0.5

1.0

Source: Based on UN, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp

1965-1970 1985-1990 2005-2010

Why Population growth is high in Muslim majority countries?in Muslim-majority countries?

Mortality has declined rapidly

Fertility has been high until recently, believed to be due to Islam’s religious teachings

The impact of population momentum has also influenced population growth rate in

t isome countries

TFR Trends in Muslim-majority countries, 1960-2010


Total Fertility Rates Total Fertility Rates –– Iran, 1972Iran, 1972--20062006

8

9Total 1986 Census

U b 1986 C

7

8 Urban 1986 Census

Rural 1986 Census

Total 1996 Census

6Urban 1996 Census

Rural 1996 Census

Total 2006 Census

4

5Total 2006 Census

Urban 2006 Census

Rural 2006 Census

3

4

c ution

al o

f 2

Isla

mi

Rev

olu

Rev

ivFP

1

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

I R

Total Fertility Rates Total Fertility Rates –– Iran by province, 1972Iran by province, 1972--20062006

Sistan and Baluchestan

9

10

Ilam8

9

6

7

IRAN

Semnan

H

Tehran

4

5

Gilan

Mazandaran

Hormozgan

3

4

1

2

5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Contraceptive Prevalence Rates, 1976Contraceptive Prevalence Rates, 1976--20052005

Provincial Total Fertility Rate, Iran 2006Provincial Total Fertility Rate, Iran 2006

OwnOwn--Children Estimates of Children Estimates of ASFRs, IRAN, ASFRs, IRAN, , ,, ,19761976--20062006

300

350

rs

250

300

d 15

-49

yea

19801986150

200

omen

age

d

1976

1990100

150

Per

100

0 w

199620002006

0

50

P

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49Age group

Driving forces behind the Driving forces behind the gglow fertility in Iranlow fertility in Iran

Rural development and Health Network Rural development and Health Network SystemSystemyyCompetition: education and employment Competition: education and employment Family formation: rise of age at marriage Family formation: rise of age at marriage y g gy g gand proportion not married by ageand proportion not married by ageSmall ideal family size Small ideal family size Quality vs quantity of childrenQuality vs quantity of childrenPostponement of the 1Postponement of the 1stst and 2and 2ndnd birthbirthStopping at parity 2 or 3Stopping at parity 2 or 3Effective family planningEffective family planningy p gy p gShortening of the reproductive life spanShortening of the reproductive life span

Winner of the World Prize for the Book of the Year of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2011

TFR Trends in Major Islamic Countries, 1960-2010


Below-replacement fertility in Islamic Countries


Fertility decline in Iran and China:Iran’s fertility: Sharpest Fall Ever Recorded


Fertility Transition (CBR) in France, Iran, Algeria and Tunisia

60

AlgeriaIran

40

50

FranceTunisia

30

40

20

30

10

0

Source: Based on Donald Rowland, PRB 2010 and World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision

1750 1770 1790 1810 1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Duration of achieving below-replacement fertility (TFR=2.1) in in the U.S, Iran, and Tunisia(TFR 2.1) in in the U.S, Iran, and Tunisia

8

Iran

6

7

U.STunisia

4

5

2

3

4

1

2

0

* For White population in U.SSource: Based on http://eh.net/encyclopedia/article/haines.demography

And UN, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp

Pace of demographic social changes and Pace of demographic, social changes and reactions in Europe and Muslim countries

Countries Demographic transition

Social change

Reaction

Developed countries and E

Slow Slow Gradual adaptation

Europe

Developing F t F t Anxiety Developing and Muslim countries

Fast Fast Anxiety and

conflictcountries

Education & Fertility

Education:provides access to modern ways of thinking, and lead to democracyprovides confidence to engage with the modern world, reduces infant and child mortality,rises age at marriage, reduces the probability of ever marrying, stimulates higher levels of gender equity within couple relationships

Literacy Rate of Female Adult (15+) in Muslim-Majority Countries

Maldives

Brunie MalaysiaIndonesia

KuwaitQatar90

100

Lybia

Iran

Indonesia

Turkey

70

80

Egypt

Bangladesh50

60

rate

(%

)

Morroco

Bangladesh

Pakistan

30

40

lite

racy

20

30

0

10

1980s 1990s 2000s

Source: Data adopted from UNESCO (2010)

1980s 1990s 2000s

Time

Iran - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in 1970

Age

95-99

Age

75-79

85-89

N Ed ti

55-59

65-69No Education

Primary

Secondary`

35 39

45-49

55 59 Secondary

Ter

25-29

35-39

2000 1500 1000 500 0 500 1000 1500 2000

15-19

M l P l ti i Th d F lMales Population in Thousands Females

Ref: Abbasi-Shavazi, Lutz, Hosseini, and KC, 2008; Lutz et all. 2010


A

95-99

Age

75-79

85-89

65-69

75 79No Education

Primary`

45-49

55-59 Secondary

Ter

25-29

35-39

6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

15-19

6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Males Population in Thousands Females


Age

95-99

Age

75-79

85-89

No Education

55-59

65-69No Education

Primary

Secondary`

35-39

45-49 Ter

15-19

25-29

5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

15 19

Males Population in Thousands Females

Ref: Abbasi-Shavazi, Lutz, Hosseini, and KC, 2008; Lutz et all. 2010

Negative impacts of Female Secondary Enrolment Rate on total fertility rates in Muslim-majority countriesj

MaliNiger

7

Burkina FasoChad

GambiaGuinea

Mali

Senegal

Iraq

OmanSaudi Arabia6

AlgeriaJordan

UAE

4

5

95

-00

EgyptLybia

Morocco

Tunisia

BangladeshIran

Kyrgizistan

Indonesia

Malaysia

Kuwait

Turkey

UAE

3

TFR

, 1

99

TunisiaTurkey

1

2

0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Source: Data adopted from Abbasi-Shavazi and Jones (2005)

Female secondary enrolment (%), 1997

Education and Age at Marriage The Effect of Female Secondary Enrolment Rate on Female Singulate

Mean Age at Marriage among Muslim-Majority Countries

Lybia

30

MoroccoTunisia

26

28

Algeria

MalaysiaJordan

Kuwait

UAE

24

26

M,

20

00

Egypt

Senegal IranKirgyzistanIndonesia

Iraq

Oman

Saudi Arabia

Syria

TurkeyUAE

20

22

FS

MA

M

Burkina Faso

Chad

Gambia

GuineaMali

Ni

Bangladesh18

20

Niger

16

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Female secondary enrolment rate (%) 1997Female secondary enrolment rate (%), 1997

Source: Data for education adopted from Abbasi-Shavazi and Jones (2005) and for marriage from United Nations (2000)

Age at Marriage and FertilityThe Effect of Female Singulate Mean Age at Marriage on TFR among

Muslim-Majority Countriesj y

Burkina Faso

Ch d

Mali

Niger

Sierra Leon

Afganistan7

Chad

Gambia

Guinea

Mauritania

Senegal

MaldivesIraq

Oman Saudi Arabia

5

6

Algeria Lybia

SudanGambia

Pakistan

Tajikistan

Jordan

Qatar

Syira4

5

19

95

-00

Egypt

Lybia

MoroccoBangladesh

Iran

Kirgyzistan

TurkmenistanUzbekistan

Brunei

Malaysia

BahrainKuwait

UAE

3

TFR

,

TunisiaBrunei

Indonesia

Azerbaijan

LebanonTurkey

2

1

16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

FSMAM, 2000FSMAM, 2000

Source: Data for fertility adopted from Abbasi-Shavazi and Jones (2005) and for marriage from UN (2000)

Education and Child MortalityThe Effect of Female Secondary Enrolment Rate on Infant Mortality The Effect of Female Secondary Enrolment Rate on Infant Mortality

Rate among Muslim-Majority Countries

140

Chad

GambiaGuinea

MaliNiger

100

120

99

5-0

0

Burkina Faso

Bangladesh

Iraq

80

100

y r

ate

, 1

9

Algeria

EgyptMorocco

Senegal

KirgyzistanIndonesia

40

60

mo

rtali

ty

Lybia

TunisiaIran

M l i

Jordan

Kuwait

OmanSaudi Arabia

Syria Turkey

UAE20

40

Infa

nt

MalaysiaKuwait

0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Female secondary enrolment rate (%) 1997Female secondary enrolment rate (%), 1997

Source: Data adopted from Abbasi-Shavazi and Jones (2005)

Child Mortality and Fertility among Muslim-Majority Countries Majority Countries

SomaliaGaza

Yemen

8

Somalia

Burkina Faso

Chad

Mali

Niger

Senegal

Sierra Leon

AfganistanGaza

Oman6

7

Comoros

Djibouti

Sudan

Gambia

GuineaMauritaniaSenegal

MaldivesPakistan Iraq

Jordan

Oman

Saudi Arabia

5

19

95

-00

AlgeriaLybia

Morocco

W. Sahara

BangladeshIran

TurkmenistanUzbakistan

BahrainKuwait

Syria

3

4

TFR

,

TunisiaBrunei Indonesia

Azerbaijan

BahrainKuwait

Lebanon

TurkeyAlbania2

1

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

IMR 1995-00IMR, 1995-00

Source: data adopted from Abbasi-Shavazi and Jones (2005)

Education and ContraceptionThe Effect of Female Secondary Enrolment Rate on Contraceptive

P l R t M li M j it C t i Prevalence Rate among Muslim-Majority Countries

Iran

80

Algeria

Egypt

Tunisia

Bangladesh

Iran

Kigyzistan

Indonesia

Malaysia

Jordan

Turkey

UAE60

70

0 EgyptLybiaMorocco

g

Syria

40

50

%),

20

00

Gambia

Guinea IraqOman

Saudi Arabia

20

30

CP

R (

%

Burkina Faso

ChadMaliNiger

Senegal

10

20

0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Female secondary enrolment ratio (%), 1997

Source: Data for education adopted from Abbasi-Shavazi and Jones(2005), for contraception from Hull (2005)

Contraception and FertilityThe Effect Contraceptive Prevalence Rate on TFR among

M li M j i C iMuslim-Majority Countries

Somalia Yemen

8

Burkina Faso

Chad

MaliNiger

Sierra Leon

Afghanistan

OmanSaudi Arabia6

7

Lybia

Sudan

GambiaGuineaMauritania

Pakistan

Tajikistan

IraqJordan

4

5

FR

Algeria

Uzbakistan

Tunisia

IranKirgyzistan

TurkmenistanEgypt

Indonesia

Lebanon

Syria

T k

UAE

3

4

TF

Azerbaijan

Turkey

1

2

0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

CPRCPR

Source: data for fertility adopted from Abbasi-shavazi and Jones(2005), for contraception from Hull (2005)

Demographic compositionDemographic composition

Median Age in Muslim-majority countries, 2010


Age Structure of Muslim countriesg

Muslim populations generally characterized by a young age characterized by a young age structure.

Effect on labour migrationEffect on labour migrationHigh dependency ratios because of earlier high fertilityTask of providing universal basic educationHigh potential for further population growth: population momentum.

A i h t d d f b t Ageing has not proceeded very far but will do so rapidly from 2030

Rising Urbanization in Muslim Majority Countries, 1950-2010

Source: Based on World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision Population Database http://esa.un.org/unup

ConclusionsMuslims constitute 23% of the world population and their share will increasepopulation and their share will increaseConsiderable diversity: socioeconomic development, Culture, and sect of

li ireligionA general fertility decline in Islamic countries, associated with improved countries, associated with improved education and changes in women’s autonomySome Islamic countries have Some Islamic countries have experienced fast demographic and social transitionsA young population structure with a built-in potential for considerable further population growthfurther population growth

Shah Mosque - Isfahan

Mean number of children ever born to Muslim and non-Muslim women in Europe by age, 1999-2000non Muslim women in Europe by age, 1999 2000

Source: Westoff and Frejka, 2007

TFR in the South, Three Southernmost provinces, and Muslims in Three Southernmost Provinces, Thailand,

200320034.0

3.0

2.0TFR

1.0

0.0South 3 Most southern provinces Muslim in 3 most southern

provinces

Source: UNFPA-Thailand, 2011, Impact of Demographic Change in Thailand, UNFPA, Bangkok.

Explanation of differential Explanation of differential Muslim and non-Muslim fertility

Characteristics hypothesis (structural integration): g )

i.e Lebanese in Australia

The particularized theology propositions

Minority status hypothesisMinority status hypothesis

Interaction hypothesisInteraction hypothesis

High Muslim fertility than Hindu but less impact on the overall fertility in Indiathe overall fertility in India

Source: Based on Mishra 2004

Fertility Adaptation of Lebanese in Australia 1977-1991y p

Source: Abbasi-shavazi & McDonald 2000

Convergence of fertility of Afghan Women in Iran as compared with those in Afghanistan, 1992-2006

Source: Sadeghi and Abbasi-shavazi 2010

fertility transition in islamic countries.pdf

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