feelink 2014 posts

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Feelink 2014 Posts F E E L I N K – F E E L & T H I N K A P P R O A C H F O R D O I N G L I F E !

ivangruer.com

BUSINESS WORLD ....................................................................................................................... 2

New IT Innovation Development (N.IT.I.D) method Step 4: Evaluate Solutions (Tripadvisor Case Study) .................................................................................................................................... 2

What Logistic, Supply Chains and Telecommunication have in common? Mr “Lean” Kendall! ........ 5

New IT Innovation Development (N.IT.I.D) method Step 3: Organize (Tripadvisor Case Study) ...... 7

New IT Innovation Development (N.IT.I.D) method Step 2: Simplify (Tripadvisor Case Study) ...... 12

Social Media Magic Quadrant (Part 2): Ability to Search Content .................................................. 15

New IT Innovation Development (N.IT.I.D) method Step 1: Brain Storming (Tripadvisor Case Study) ..................................................................................................................................................... 17

Social Media Magic Quadrant (Part 1): Ability to Generate Content .............................................. 19

New IT Innovation Development (NITID) method: Tripadvisor Case Study ................................... 21

Social Media Magic Quadrant: who will be successful? The key of a linkage with search engines 23

New IT Innovation Development (N.IT.I.D.): a new business model generator at a glance ............ 25

BigData & SupplyChain: a S.W.O.T. analysis ............................................................................... 28

TV Audience and Tweets Flow: a great beauty or bigdata SLIP n.1 for marketing communication strategists (statistic)? .................................................................................................................... 30

Caution!!! BigData S.L.I.P.S.: five tips when using analytics ......................................................... 32

LEASSURE, FUNNY STORY, MISCELLANEOUS ...................................................................... 35

The 2nd Law (part 3) – The Missing Linkage Between Economy and Ecosystem. Mankiw’s Ten Principles and Thermoeconomics ................................................................................................. 35

The 2nd Law (part 2) – My Issue with Ecological Sustainability and World Economy (Mankiw’s Ten Principles) .............................................................................................................................. 40

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BUSINESS WORLD New IT Innovation Development (N.IT.I.D) method Step 4: Evaluate Solutions (Tripadvisor Case Study) Posted on December 1, 2014

See also:

� New IT Innovation Development (N.IT.I.D) method Step 1: Brain Storming (Tripadvisor

Case Study).

� New IT Innovation Development (N.IT.I.D) method Step 2: Simplify (Tripadvisor Case

Study).

� New IT Innovation Development (N.IT.I.D) method Step 3: Organize (Tripadvisor Case

Study).

After brainstorming new idea and organize them, the next step of the N.IT.I.D. method is to

evaluate the solution proposed for the TripAdvsor case study.

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The KJ method in the Step 3 (Organize), it has been possible to organize the un-structured

brainstormed ideas in a structure way. The next phase is to connect all the ideas grouped with

KJ method with the key performances needed in order to satisfy new functionalities.

In order to evaluate the solutions, all the key performances must be measurable. For example,

the "facilitate the process" BigData initiation needs a new WEB interface to develop in order to

create a list of pending reviews. In this case, some key measurable parameters for the interface

should be the delay and inconsistency between the pending reviews shown and the incoming

new receipts.

In the Table below are shown all the BigData ideas, IT infrastructures required and the KEY

parameters that should be considered respectively as:

� new needs

� requirements

� and Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

By putting needs into rows and the list of KPIs listed in the Table into columns, it is possible to

create the QFD (Quality Function Development) matrix (see Figure below).

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In this example it has been assigned a score for each KPI with values X (no relations), 3 (weak

relation) or 9 (strong relation) and an importance rating (e.g. from 0 to 9) for each new need

accordingly to the priorities and objectives of the company.

For example, the importance rating should be assessed by considering factors such as the

customer value curve, opportunity to innovate for getting a competitive advantage or risks (e.g.:

disruptive innovations from competitors). Finally, the QFD score for each KPI is given by the

sum of the scores intercepted by weighting (multiplying) them accordingly to the importance

rating.

The aim of the QFD matrix is to link in a structured way the ideas (needs) with the key

performances. Moreover, by assigning a score for each KPIs that measure its importance in

order to satisfy the need it is possible to obtain an indicator of relevance for each key

performance.

In the example, KPI inconsistencies (fake reviews and Negative SEO) is the most relevant KPI

to consider since got the highest score (117).

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Meanwhile, according to the importance rating, the most relevant ideas are Engage

Customers and Facilitate the Process.

However, are they the ones that should be really implemented by TripAdvisor?

To be continued...

Feelink - Feel & Think approach for doing life!

What Logistic, Supply Chains and Telecommunication have in common? Mr “Lean” Kendall! Posted on November 24, 2014

In telecommunication engineering, queue's theory is applied whenever dealing with design

telecommunication networks' designs.

Anyhow, actually in our every day life we are all "victims" of queues. For example, when waiting

to pay at the supermarket, when blocked in the traffic jam and when, as a customer, waiting the

delivery of a purchased item.

Or, when dealing with Supply Chains, delivery delays and high level of stocks.

After almost ten years from University, it has been exiting for me discovered that the same

principles behind the queue's theory in Telecommunication can be applied in a totally different

field where I work: logistic and supply chain.

Anyhow, which are the principles that telecommunication and supply chain management (SCM)

have in common? They both could be described by using a specific statistical model "A/B/k".

"A/B/k" is the so called Kendall's notification A/B/k where:

� A: it represents the statistical model of new entries (e.g. a new call phone, a new client at

the bank agency,...), in the queue that suit best the "real" world. For example, M stands

for a Markovian (memory less) process, E an Erlang distribution process and so on

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� B: it describes how the entries in the queue are processes and thus theirs statistics. It

could be the same model as for arrivals or different.

� k: is number of places of the "waiting area". If k=1 it means that new arrivals will be

discharged if new entries occur. While if k=5, as an example, there are 4 places available

for new arrivals till a new entry can be processed in the queue.

Apart from the statistical models characterizing arrivals and processing, when designing a

simple telecommunication system there are mainly two constraint:

1. the capacity of the telecommunication channel. How many calls per minute can be

processed? Or how many Gbytes/s can be provided by a network connection?

2. the memory available that is the number k in the Kendall's notification.

Statistics apart, there is and hidden rule behind:

Channel capacity and Memory Available are Link each other. Low

Channel Capacity might be Compensated by Increasing the

Memory Available.

So, what a telecommunication network described with a Kendall's notification have in common

with SCM?

1. channel capacity = velocity on handling both material and information among Supply

Chain

2. memory = level of inventory

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New IT Innovation Development (N.IT.I.D) method Step 3: Organize (Tripadvisor Case Study) Posted on October 20, 2014

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See also:

� New IT Innovation Development (N.IT.I.D) method Step 1: Brain Storming (Tripadvisor

Case Study).

� New IT Innovation Development (N.IT.I.D) method Step 2: Simplify (Tripadvisor Case

Study).

A new business model for Tripadvisor has been developed thanks to BigData IT Innovations.

After brainstorming (Step 1) and then simplifying (Step 2) the founded new opportunities

emerged from such a new business model, the next step for the N.IT.ID method is: Organize.

The purpose of organizing is to obtain a set of ideas and innovations that are structured

according to a criteria that will be useful during the remaining two steps 4 and

5: Evaluate and Select.

So, after Step 2- Simplify, on the table there are the following opportunities for Tripadvisor thanks

to BigData Innovation:

A) Facilitate the Process

B) Establish an Integrated Supply Chain

C) Create Customer Experiences

D) Engage Customers

E) Provide Statistics and Reports

The Step 3 - Organize, consist on the following procedure:

1. unify the remaining ideas into rational association of affinity group;

2. rank the groups;

3. group the unified ideas into a rational association affinity group (2nd level group) as it has

been done at point 1;

4. assign to each 2nd level group a general topic (avoid a list of ideas) or a common theme;

5. identify relations among groups (correlations, dependencies,...).

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In details:

1) Unify the remaining ideas into rational associat ion of affinity group

In order to create affinity groups, it is necessary to define a criteria. Let's assume as a criteria

the function in the company (value chain), that would be involved for each idea.

With such a criteria the affinity groups are as follows:

In particular, within the organization of Tripadvisor, A) facilitating the process and B) establishing

an integrated supply chain are about its Operations' activities.

While C) Creating Customers Experiences and D) Engaging customers they are responsibilities

under Sales & Marketing department.

Finally, D) Providing Statistics and Reports might be considered as an additional Service (e.g.:

after sales).

2) Rank the groups

As it has been done during the previous N.IT.I.D Step 2 - Simplify, it might be useful to further

reduce the number of new initiatives by ranking the affinity groups and eliminating those groups

that are less important.

For example, each team member should give a vote between 1 to 6 accordingly to its perception

of importance (1 = low, 6 = very high) and then keep only the highly scored groups.

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In this case, since there are only three groups, it does not make sense eliminate any groups.

Better would be to keep all the three groups for the next N.IT.I.D. - Step: Evaluate.

3) Group the unified ideas into a rational associat ion of affinity group (2nd level groups)

In a similar way at point 1, group again the groups of ideas that are similar according to another

criteria.

Using as a second criteria the Stakeholder potentially involved that

are Customer, Suppliers (Restaurateurs and Hotels) and Collaborators, here below the 2nd level

affinity groups:

In particular, Customers & Suppliers are engaged in the idea A) facilitating the process and

B) establishing an integrated supply chain.

While, Customers & Collaborators are involved for C) Creating Customers Experiences and

D) Engaging customers.

Finally, D) Providing Statistics and Reports might be considered as an additional Service (e.g.:

after sales) for Suppliers.

4) Assign to each 2nd level group a general topic o r common theme

As for N.IT.I.D Step 2 - Simplify, define a general topic or common theme that labels each 2nd

level groups.

As labels for 2nd level groups just keep the stakeholder involved so that the general topics are:

� Customers & Suppliers

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� Customers & Collaborators

� Suppliers

5) Identify relations among groups (correlations, d ependencies,...).

The last point is to identify relations among the 2nd level groups. In particular, as it is shown in

the Figure below, there are two relations: one that is related to customers and one that is related

to suppliers.

Precisely, the customer as a stakeholder create a link between “facilitate the process” and

“engage customer” functionalities, while suppliers enable a connection between “integrated

supply chain” and “provide statistics” ideas.

An example how it looks like...

The Step 3 - Organize is actually the so called KJ Method developed by Jiro Kawakita.

Writing all the ideas into cards and using a whiteboard where to post them, it would be useful in

order to have always the view of the "big picture" during the process.

Here below an example of it might look like a N.IT.ID process after Organize (Step 3).

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To be continued...


New IT Innovation Development (N.IT.I.D) method Step 2: Simplify (Tripadvisor Case Study) Posted on September 22, 2014

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See also: New IT Innovation Development (N.IT.I.D) method Step 2: Simplify (Tripadvisor Case

Study).

Thanks to the new data available for Tripadvisor, it has been applied the N.IT.I.D. process, and

after the first step (Brainstorming), there are on the table the following opportunities:

1) Facilitate the process of the reviews for users by updating a list of "pending reviews" to fill

once a new bill in a restaurant\hotel has been recorded.

2) Create “customer experiences” through new visualization charts such as a map of visited

restaurants and hotels and\or a social network that connect users together in order to share the

experiences.

3) Engage customers by creating synergies with loyalty programs.

4) Provide statistics and reports that might be useful to restaurateurs and hotel managers.

5) Establish an integrated supply chain by providing further additional services to

restaurateurs and hotels.

All these ideas required investments, in terms of IT infrastructures, human resources and

agreements with stakeholders or third parties. Will such investments have a return?

Hard to say now. Better first to jump at the second Step of the N.IT.I.D. process: Simplify.

A brainstorming session usually produce a redundant, inconsistent and sometimes irrelevant

set of ideas. Thus, a rough simplification could be done as follows:

1. Give to each idea a senentence\image

The idea\image should identify briefly the concept. In this case, simply let’s keep as images for

the opportunities mentioned above the words in bold: facilitate the process, create customer

experiences, engage customers, provide statistics and reports, establish an integrated supply

chain.

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2. Remove redundant ideas

After giving a simplified sentence, some ideas might be redundant. In this case, no redundancies

emerged and thus all the idea should be kept on the table.

3. Rank each idea

With a set ideas that are unique (no redundancies) a vote among all the team members should

rank the opportunities. For example, each member can give to each idea a score between 1 to

6: 1 not relevant at all and 6 extremely relevant.

The sum of the votes than will rank all the opportunities by theirs relevance.

An important recommendation: when ranking, each team member should evaluate ideas with a

score between 1 and 6, without providing any justification. The vote should be only about

perceptions, intuitions, and feelings. As Edward de Bono would say: "wear the red hat!" (see 6

Thinking Hats).

4. Keep only the most relevant ideas

After ranking all the ideas, the group might decide to keep only the most relevant ones (e.g.: first

ten idea). Anyhow, do not throw away the removed ideas. Keep them in a temporary basket

because they might be useful during steps 4 and 5 (Evaluate and Select solutions).

In our case, since there are only five items, all the ideas will be kept as important for the next

step: Organize.

To be continued...


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Social Media Magic Quadrant (Part 2): Ability to Search Content Posted on July 28, 2014

The second aspect of a social media that wants to lead is the ability search and provide

meaningful content to users.

(see also Social Media Magic Quadrant)

When we need an information, where to look for it in the web? As a part of a marketing

communication strategy, from a SEO perspective, knowing who is leading as a search engine

is crucial in order to be visible and been known as a brand.

(see also: Sentiment Analysis in Semantic Search: Find Out What Others are Thinking About

Your Brand).

In other words: be visible as a brand where most likely people goes to look for something.

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According to @netmarketshare (July, 2014), Google is without leading with 68,75% of queries,

then Baidu (China) with 18,03%. Other search engines such as Yahoo, Bing and Ask, are just

striving.

Anyhow, how Google gained its leadership as a search engine? Which are the main abilities as

a search content leader?

1. Giving what people are looking for?

Able to collect the information that people want to know, that is meaningful and useful. In one

word, a search that is semantic = content + context.

Providing a result that is contextualized according to the network and interests is what can boost

user engagements. Is what Yahoo is might attempt to achieve with the acquisition

of Flurry (...unless it's only speculation).

2. What about developing a brand as a search engine ? Google is not only leading as a

search content providers. It's also the best workplace 2014 mainly because provides to theirs

employers Great Challenges, a Great Atmosphere and Great work.life balance. It might be

correlation relationship between the two fact or it's simply a coincidence. Anyhow, will you buy

a product or a service of a company that is recognized as bad employer?

What about SNs Strategies?

Considering how Google is investing in its social media platform (Google+), according to social

media magic quadrant, my perception is that Google is attempting to switch from "SN Content

Searcher" to a "SN Leader". In others words, from a search content "of others" (platform) to a

search content "of my own (platform)" leadership.

Feelink - Feel & Think Approach for Doing Life!

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New IT Innovation Development (N.IT.I.D) method Step 1: Brain Storming (Tripadvisor Case Study) Posted on June 16, 2014

Immagine that a business model described in "New IT Innovation Development NITID:

Tripadvisor Case Study" is in place where new data is available for Tripdavisor:

1) the receipt (WHAT)

2) the client user ID (WHO)

3) the GEO position of the restaurant (WHERE)

The purpose of collecting such data is to ensure a better service for customers by ensuring an

effective countermeasure against Negative SEO tactics.

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Anyhow, is this really all? How such a new data availability might be exploited? This is the aim

of the NITID method: find new business opportunities that might arise from data.

Commonly, in a creative process, the first step is brainstorming. By putting all the ideas on the

table without any kind of criticism, judgments and filters, here below a list of new business

opportunities that a brainstorming session applied to the Tripadvisor case might generate:

1) Facilitate the process of the reviews for users by updating a list of "pending reviews" to fill

once a new bill in a restaurant\hotel has been recorded. In such a way the user, when log in to

TripAdvisor’s website, doesn’t need to search for the restaurateur to be reviewed since a

pending review connected to the restaurant\hotel is available Furthermore, the number of total

reviews will increase since the review process has been simplified for customers.

2) Create “customer experiences” through new visualization charts such as a map of visited

restaurants and hotels and\or a social network that connect users together in order to share the

experiences.

3) Engage customers by creating synergies with loyalty programs and companies (e.g.: Nectar)

and provide gifts to customers who deliver more reviews.

4) Provide statistics and reports that might be useful to restaurateurs and hotel managers:

trends, demand forecast, seasonality, sentiment,....

5) Establish an integrated supply chain by providing further additional services to

restaurateurs and hotels. In particular, the demand forecasts should be shared with

restaurateurs and hotels’ suppliers by recording all the food\goods consumed by linking them

with the receipt. For example, a week in a room requires three units of soap or for cooking a

steak in a restaurant are needed 100 grams of meat plus 1 mg of salt and 5 grams of olive oil.

By using this data it’s possible to establish a logistic platform that might provide a competitive

advantage both for buyer (restaurateurs and hotels) and suppliers. In particular, buyers, and

especially small entrepreneurs that cannot invest and maintain complex IT infrastructures, might

improve theirs inventory turnovers by having a more granular and detailed consumption of

material. Meanwhile, local suppliers might have additional information regarding consumptions

and level of inventories of theirs clients and thus enable more frequent on time deliveries and\or

with a small amount. Such a solution might be useful for enabling an advanced Demand Driven

Supply Chain (DDSC). EBay's already told us with its "same day delivery" business model where

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small retailers have became a network of a distribuited inventory (see: "EBay expands same-

day delivery in local battle with Amazon").

Maybe, or better for sure, there are many and many issues regarding those new business

opportunities:

Why changing and expanding the business model of Tripadvisor beyond core activities?

Why to invest in new relations, IT infrastructure, and skills?

What about the issue of data privacy?

Anyhow, making questions, having doubts and putting barriers are not allowed when

brainstorming.

As when dreaming:

Logic will get you from A to B. Imagination will take you everywhere (Albert

Einstein).


Social Media Magic Quadrant (Part 1): Ability to Generate Content Posted on June 3, 2014

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Recalling Social Media Magic Quadrant as a tool for assessing the strategic position of a social

media website, there are two key aspects:

1) Ability to generate content

2) Ability to search and provide meaningful content for the single user (contextualized search)

Considering the ability to generate content, here below an interesting infographic by Dustin W.

Stout that gives the measure of who is leading as a content generator.

Click the animation to open the full version (via PennyStocks.la).

Well, e-mail is still the most used communication tool as well as WhatsApp has gained a

oustansting leadership of instant messaging by intercepting and disrupting SMSs from mobile

phones. Something to consider also by all the mobile operators.

Regarding microblogging, there is no doubt that Twitter is leading against Tumblr in terms of

number of posts generated.

Moreover, as expected, there is no competition between Facebook and Google+ considering

the number of likes.

Anyhow, how a social media will lead as a content generator?

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Number of active users?

Ability to engage people? Or What?

Share your thoughts.


New IT Innovation Development (NITID) method: Tripadvisor Case Study Posted on May 19, 2014

How to fight Negative SEO tactics? Think about the case of Tripadvisor and imagine a business

model as below:

1) eat a meal in the restaurant (e.g.: "La bella vita") pay the receipt with a User ID Card (e.g.:

loyalty\member card).

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2) Then the consumption will be sent and registered in a TripAdvisor data base as "consumption

to be reviewed". That could be nowadays even easier than 10 years ago if you since the

technology available such as card reader, smartphones, apps, are cheap and well-known by

end users

3) You go home and since you have enjoyed the delicious spaghetti at "La bella vita" you decide

to post a review in Tripadvisor. Since there is a consumption associated to you, your review will

be validated and thus not consider as Positive\Negative SEO tactic.

4) The competition around "La bella vita" is challenging and the main competitor, "The Beagle

Boys's Pizza", pretty tough. "The Beagle Boys" is highly pushing a Negative SEO tactic and they

usually attempt to write bad reviews against "La bella Vita". Unfortunately, since no consumption

is pending as "to be reviewed", the comment in Tripadvisor will be not considers as valid.

Well, such a business model might fix definitely the issue of Negative SEO for Tripadvisor and

make their service much more useful for consumers...

...but, is that really all about implementing such a business model?

I mean, how is possible to fully exploit the investments needed for developing a new IT

infrastructure?

Well, new data is actually now available for Tripadvisor since many consumptions are tracked.

In particular, three key aspects has been registered:

1) WHAT (spaghetti)

2) WHO (user ID)

3) WHERE (GEO position of the restaurant)

That is actually what a BigData initiative is: leveraging the data available inside as well as outside

the company not only for improving the core business but also for developing new ones.

How? By using a N.IT.I.D method: New IT Initiative Development. Coming soon.


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Social Media Magic Quadrant: who will be successful? The key of a linkage with search engines Posted on May 12, 2014

Around the world many Social Networks are in place, many just born and many other just died.

Level of engagement, usability and giving to final users which information to share are more

likely what a SN should develop in order to be successful nowadays.

Anyhow, who among the big ones like Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIN, Google+,… will survive also

in the future?

Which are the key factor of success in this race?

I guess that for leading as a Social Network one key ingredient is required: a strong linkage

between the content (+context) and a well-known search engine.

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That’s because when people would know something more about a topic, company or person,

usually type a key word in a search engine or in a Social Network as well. Therefore, having

meaningful content that is delivered\promoted as results of the search engine is what will lead a

social media to success.

On the other side, a search engine has to defend its brand (because they have it!!!). A search

engine wouldn't return results with bad contents and\or from people with bad reputation. Thus,

the algorithm of a search engine should defend its brand by providing good contents from trusted

social networks.

Well, probably, among the big ones who has the strongest linkage between a Social Network

and a search engine is Google: Google+ (SN) and Google search (Search Engine).

However, despite Google search is the most used search engine, Google+ is not leading as a

content generator and thus able to reach a critical mass of contents. Promoting Google+ by

engaging as much (trusted) users as possible is part of its strategy, as far as I realized.

On the other side, according to its Merge & Acquisition , the most popular SN, Facebook, doesn't

seem to show an interest on promoting to user as well as investing on a search engine. Who

will win? We'll see.

Meanwhile, other SNs have already shown how the linkage with a good search engine is

strategic. Think about LinkedIn that is widely used by hiring manager for screening candidates.

Recalling the fairy tale Snow White and the seven Dwarfs:

Mirror, mirror on the wall, who’s the fairest of Social Networks all?

(see also: Semantic search algorithm, behaviorism and fairy-tale Snowwhite with the seven

dwarfs. Would SEO behave like Grumpy?)

Snow White and Semantic Search

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P.S.: By the way, will Gartner Inc. approve the Social Media Magic Quadrant? ;)

New IT Innovation Development (N.IT.I.D.): a new business model generator at a glance Posted on May 6, 2014

Once understood the second side of technology: technology as a catalyst to change business

models

(see also: Firm Infrastructure Vs Catalyst to Change Business Models (part 2): New IT

Innovation Development (NITID))

� How to develop new business models that anticipate customers' needs and market's

trends?

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� How to make IT innovation fully sustainable also by using all the data (inside & outside the

company)?

� How to manage technology disruptions?

Here a "N.IT.I.D." tool to address such an issue of nowadays businesses of whatever industry.

5 steps:

1. Brainstorming (lateral thinking) :

Ok, a new technology or improvement has come out... which might be impacts on the business

and society? How can be used for market effectiveness?...in other words, what to do? Starting

by thinking to a solution is the best way for achieving a failure. In a good brainstorming stage

all the business impacts related to customers' needs and stakeholders should be written down

without any kind of criticisms. A good brainstorming stage rely on people with different

mindsets, lateral thinking and should generate as much options as possible. In one world: chaos

(see also: Chaos vs. Determinism: why not both? From evolutionary theory to BIG Data

challenge)

2. Simplify (vertical thinking) :

A list of ideas that might have no sense (apparently!!!) has been written down. It's time to make

order upon the chaos by giving to each idea a title. An image that simplify the idea in one

#hashtag. Then, remove all the ideas that are redundant because the have the same image,

title or #hashtag.

Then, rank all ideas (e.g.: team members votes) and eliminate the ones less relevant. For

example, keep only 30 ideas out of 200\500 initially generated.

3. Organize (vertical thinking) :

With a simplified list:

1. first level groups: unify the remaining ideas into rational association (criteria) affinity

groups

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2. rank the groups. (e.g.: each member of teamwork assigns 1,3 or 6 point for each group of

ideas)

3. second level groups: group again the unified ideas into a rational association affinity group

(another criteria)

4. for each second level group, summarize a general topic (avoid a list of ideas) or a common

theme.

5. identify relations among groups (correlations, dependencies).

4. Evaluate Solutions (lateral & vertical thinking) :

Now it's time to think about a solution: how to develop a solution that meets the needs and

opportunities that has been previously brainstormed, simplified and organized?

Many solutions should be brainstormed again and evaluated according to a list of "key

performances" that are needed for implementing the new functionalities (needs).

That's more likely the most challenging stage since both lateral and vertical thinking are required

for generating new solutions and for evaluating them according to the key performances required

from customers.

5. Select Solution (vertical thinking) :

A list of selected solutions and possible business models that are possible thanks to IT

innovations and technology improvements are now available with an evaluation that is linked

with key performances. How to select the only one that is sustainable and worth to develop?

That is the final Selection stage where each solution is compared and assessed

against accordingly what is already provided by competitors.

An example of how N.IT.I.D. process might be helpful in order to find opportunities and threats

(disruptions) from IT and technology innovations?

Recalling the issues of Negative SEO:

(see also: Tripadvisor: a case study to think why bigdata variety matters)

...how to improve a service like the one of TripAdvisor closer to customers' needs?

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...stay tuned ;)!

Feelink – Feel & Think approach for doing life!

BigData & SupplyChain: a S.W.O.T. analysis Posted on April 1, 2014

Strengths , Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats ( S.W.O.T.)

� Strengths:

Implementing analytic tools with the technology available nowadays (RFID, GPS,...), that is

getting cheaper and cheaper, will enable gathering insights and information about logistic and

operations on a real-time basis. This means reacting faster and faster to issues.

� Weaknesses:

Analytic skills should be developed in order to break the barrier between such amount of data

and the meaningful information for a certain business. Inaccessible data are both useless and a

missed information.

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� Opportunities:

Scouting might be easier. Moreover, a demand driven supply chain (DDSC) approach might be

expanded by sharing more and more data with key partners and by gathering insights from the

market: from customers as well as customers of customers and thus anticipate trends and

innovations rather than rely mainly on unreliable forecasts.

� Threats:

Be disrupted by other innovations. This is what might happen whenever a new business model,

closer to customer needs (or that creates new needs), is created thanks to IT innovations. New

business model = New network of suppliers.

Ignoring the opportunities behind IT innovations means ignoring the risk of being disrupted. On

the other side, an excess of enthusiasm towards BigData is as well a risk to fall in one of the 5

bigdata S.L.I.P.S. if no analytical and business acumen are developed.

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TV Audience and Tweets Flow: a great beauty or bigdata SLIP n.1 for marketing communication strategists (statistic)? Posted on March 10, 2014

After being awarded as the best foreign language movie (Italy) Academy Awards 20014, The

Great Beauty, directed by Paolo Sorrentino, got an outstanding audience last week when it was

broadcasted in Italy in TV prime time.

Comments and opinions about the movie apart (I would recommend to see it), providing trends

and flows among social medias is getting more frequent every day. Few day ago, it has been

posted by the Italian TV Network that transmitted the movie, a "statistic" (here) regarding the

Tweet flows with the purpose to explain when twitters' peaks happened as well as gathering the

main influencers.

Accordingly to a third party analysis, twitters' peaks happened at specific moments: 1) a

meaningful sentence by Jep Gambardella, the protagonist, 2) when the Sabrina Ferilli (famous

Italian actress) showed up in the movie with all her beauty and 3) at the end of the movie.

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Very interesting. However, looking carefully at the charts (see figure above) I have noticed two

things:

1. Twitters' peaks happen concurrently with a temporary decline of the TV audience (share).

Thus, a correlation (negative) between peaks in Twitter and TV Share exists.

2. The Twitters' peaks and audiences' downturns occur with a perfect timing: one each 30

minutes.

Since advertisements' stops during TV shows, and radio broadcasts as well, are previously

defined according to a specific TV time clock...

...well, I am wondering: Is there also a cause-effect relationship between advertisements' stops

during TV programs and the peaks registered in Twitter?

Who knows. An answer should be provided only analyzing data and real facts carefully. For

example, why not putting chips in our home that register and transmit also when the refrigerator

has been opened to bring something to eat or even when a WC has just been flushed? Other

stimulating correlations might be found by gathering such kind of data.

Anyhow, finding correlations it's quite easy. Just observe what happen. Finding causation

relationships is definetely much more tricky (see also BigData S.L.I.P.S. n.1: statistic) since a

deep knowledge of what is going to be analyzed is required and it is quite easy to fall into wrong

assumptions. In this case, the beauty of human behaviours.

By the way, concerning the connection between Tweets and TV shows, last year Twitter and

BBC America have established a partnership for advertising (see Mashable, Twitter Partners

With BBC America to Promote Branded Videos).

Maybe it's just a coincidence... or maybe Twitter and BBC have the information that when people

go to the toilette is just for posting a tweet and not beacause of a TV break ;)


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Caution!!! BigData S.L.I.P.S.: five tips when using analytics Posted on January 13, 2014

Along my brief research on BigData, I've found 5 type of S.L.I.P.S that a data scientist might

encounter along the way: Statistic, Learning, Information, Psychology and Sources.

1) Statistic ( Left Foot )

Is without any doubt the main and well-known technical aspect. The most common slip

concerning statistic is misleading correlation with causation. In other words, discovering

correlations among variables doesn't necessarily imply a cause-effect relation. Mathematically

speaking, correlation is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a cause-effect relationship.

(see also K. Borne: Statistical Truisms in the Age of BigData).

2) Learning ( Right Foot )

OK, lets assume that a cause-effect relationship exists: which model\algorithm to chose in order

to describe the relationship? There are many: ARMA, Kalman's Filter, Neural Networks,

customized,... which one fits best? A model that has been validated with the data available now

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might be not valid anymore in the future. So, constantly monitoring and measure the error of

prediction with the estimated values by the model.

Choosing a model implies making assumptions. In other words, never quit to learn from data

and be open to break assumptions otherwise predictions and analysis will be slanted.

3) Information ( Right Hand )

Which information is really meaningful? That's the first point to clarify before implementing a

bigdata initiative or any new BI tool for your business.

Another point is misleading information with data. According to information theory, and a well-

grounded common sense as well, data are facts while information is an interpretation of facts

based upon assumptions (see also the D.A.I. model).

(see also: D. Laney & M. Beyer: BigData Strategy Essentials for Business and IT).

4) Psychology ( the Head... of course! )

Have you ever heard about eco-chamber effects and social influence? Well, what happen is that

social media might amplify irrational behaviours where individuals (me included) base its

decisions, more or less consciously, not only on their knowledge or values but also on the

actions of those who act before them.

In particular, whenever dealing with tricky-slippy tools such as bigdata sentiments is better to

consider carefully the relevance and impacts of psychology and behaviours. The risk is to gather

data that is intrinsically biased (see also My Issue with BigData Sentiments.)

(see also:

D. Amerland: How Semantic Search is changing end-user behaviour

C. Sunstein: Echo Chambers: Bush v. Gore, Impeachment, and Beyond - Princeton University

Press

e! Science News: Information technology amplifies irrational group behavior).

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5) Sources ( Left Hand )

Variety!!! That is one of the three V suggested by D. Laney: Volume, Velocity and Variety. Not

only choosing the right model is important in order to avoid predictions' and insights' biases:

what about the reliability of the sources of data that has been used for the analysis? If the data

is biased predictions and insights will be biased as well. In particular, any series of data has a

variance and a bias that can not be eliminated.

How to mitigate such a risk? By gathering data from different sources and weight them

accordingly to its reliability: the variance.

Moreover, as a bigdata scientist and as a consumer as well, never forget positive and negative

SEO tactics. There is a social-digital jungle there! (see Tripadvisor: a Case Study to Think Why

BigData Variety matters).


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LEASSURE, FUNNY STORY, MISCELLANEOUS The 2nd Law (part 3) – The Missing Linkage Between Economy and Ecosystem. Mankiw’s Ten Principles and Thermoeconomics Posted on October 6, 2014

Recalling the previous post about ecological sustainability [1],

The 2nd Law (part 2) – My Issue with Ecological Sus tainability and World Economy

(Mankiw’s Ten Principles)

what is missing is strong linkage between the world economy and the limited biocapacity of the

planet Earth.

The missing link between economy and ecosystem has been already pointed out by many

researchers [2].

World Economy and Ecosystem: Mankinw's 10 Principle s and Thermoeconomics

Both, natural ecosystem and world economy are complex system and theirs outcomes are not

easy to define analytically, to predict and to manage.

Briefly, world economy have been described by Mankiw's Ten Principles and outcomes are

mainly due to [1]:

� Decision Making and Supply-Demand's law (invisible hand)

� Regulation by Government and Policy Makers

Regarding the ecosystems, the Global Footprint Network is attempting to provide a measure

about the biocapacity of each country as well as for all over the world. This year (2014), human

activities have consumed all the biocapacity available on 19th of August [3].

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A possible link between the world economy and the ecosystem might be established thanks to

Thermoeconomics [4]: that is Thermodynamics applied to Economy.

Without touching topics such as, thermodynamics, information theory and cybernetic, briefly,

both ecosystem and economy are two environments that are accessing to the same resources

(biocapacity, energy,...) available in the "system" Earth as shown in the Figure below [5]:

Ecosystem

The ecosystem, thanks to photosynthesis and Krebs cycles, is efficiently using the resources in

the Earth (mass and energy) without producing any waste.

The variables of an ecosystem are its biocapacity (mass: forests, animals, soil, water,...), energy,

temperature, etc. and they are regulated by physics' laws.

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Economy

On the contrary, human activity is evolving and economy is growing because of energy dispersal

without re-integrating biocapacity consumptions (deforestation, species' extinctions, water,

natural resources, etc) [6].

Values (money), regulations, prices, interest rates, etc. are the variables of the economy. Human

behaviors and outcomes of the economy are governed by Mankiw's ten principles [7].

What economy produce as an exchange for growth is mainly waste and pollution: something

that neither the economic nor ecosystem environments are able to use as a resource.

How to Link World Economy & Ecosystem?

Since the beginning of the 19th century, many scientists, biologists, physics and economists,

have conducted several studies and developed theories as well in order to address the missing

link between economy and the entire ecosystems [2][8].

The same researches, inferred that (thermoeconomic):

Assumption 1: to each money transaction correspond a flow of energy or

biocapacity.

Meanwhile, in the economic environment (from Mankiw's ten principles):

� Assumption 2: to each economic interaction among economic actors corresponds a

transfer of value that is represented by a monetary flow.

Common economic interactions are:

� selling\buying: a transfer of money from the consumer to the retailer

� issuing a loan: a transfer of money from banks to households\firms.

� transfers of money from central bank to national banks;

� taxes and subsidies: transfers of money between households\firms and governments.

� the act of printing money by the central bank incentivize the volume of the economic

transactions since more money is putted into the system.

While:

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� producing goods\services means adding a value in the economic environment that is

equal to the (price - cost of production).

� consuming goods\services means decreasing the value in the economic system that is

equal to the price paid for the goods\services.

The missing link... at least in theory, in two new principles

How Economy and Ecosystem Interact: Principle N.11

Putting assumption 1 from thermoeconomic and assumption 2 together, here below one missing

principle to add at the previous Mankiw's ten principle that might link World Economy with the

Ecosystem:

Principle N.11

To Each Interaction among Economic Actors Corresponds both a Monetary Flow

and an Energy Flow.

How Economy and Ecosystem Interact: Principle N.12

The new Principle N.12 is about how to deal with complex systems as both economy and

ecosystem they are.

In a complex system mostly of the times something strange, new and unexpected happen that

is called as "emergent phenomena".

An example, is the human body. A body is actually a mass o billions of one-celled organism like

bacteria.

Well, would a unicellular organism exist without human bodies? Of course, Yes. There are even

bacteria that infect our organism.

On the contrary, would human bodies exist without unicellular organisms? No!

Therefore, the questions above suggest us that a human body is an emergent phenomena of

unicellular organisms as well as there is also clear hierarchy of existence among complex

systems.

What about Economy and Ecosystem?

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By answering to the same questions:

� Would Ecosystem exists without Economy? Yes, as it happened before humankind.

� On the contrary, would Economy exists without Ecosystem? No way. Economy is an

emergent phenomena created by humankind, and humankind is an emergent phenomena

of Ecosystem as well. As a matter of fact, human beings can not exist without the support

of the Ecosystem: mainly food, water and energy.

Such a reasoning leads to Principle N.12:

Principle N.12

The Economic Environment is an Emergent Phenomena of the Ecosystem.

So, once acknowledged the new Principles N.11 and N.12 that link Economy and Ecosystem:

what does they mean in practice, both for economic activities and enviroment sustainability?

To be continued...


R E S O U R C E S

[1]: I. Gruer, "The 2nd Law (part 2) – My Issue with Ecological Sustainability and World Economy

(Mankiw’s Ten Principles)". Posted Sept. 10, 2014, www.ivangruer.com.

[2]: Peter A. Corning. "Control Information Theory: The Missing Link in the Science of

Cybernetics". System Research and Behavioral Science. n.24, pp 297-311, 2007.

[3]: Earth Overshoot Day. "Global Footprint Network". www.footprintnetwork.org

[4]: Peter A. Corning. "Thermoeconomics: Beyond the Second Law". Journal of

Bioeconomics. Vol. 4 - Issue 1, pp 57-88, 2002.

[5]: M. Gong, G. Wall. "On Exergetics, Economics, and Optimization of Technical Process to

Meet Enviromental Conditions". International Conference on Thermodynamic Analysis and

Improvements on Energy Systems. 10-13 June 1997. Beijing, China.

40

[6]: A. Annilla, S. Salthe. "Economy Evolves by Energy Dispersal". Entropy. 11-2009.

www.mdpi.com/journal/entropy/

[7]: N.Gregory Mankiw. Principles of Economics 6e. South-Western, Cenage Learning.

[8] Peter A. Corning. Holistic Darwinism: Synergy, Cybernetics, and the Bioeconomics of

Evolution. University Of Chicago Press. 2005.

[9]: N.Gregory Mankiw. "A Carbon Tax that America could Love with". New York Times. 01.

Sept. 2014.

[10]: Buttonwood's Notebook. "Energy use and Growth: an Optimistic View". The Economist. 26

June 2013.

The 2nd Law (part 2) – My Issue with Ecological Sustainability and World Economy (Mankiw’s Ten Principles) Posted on September 10, 2014

Global Footprint and Ecological Sustainability

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19th August 2014, planet Earth: humanity has exhausted all the biological resources provided

by nature in one year [1].

According to Global Footprint Network, last 19th August was the Earth Overshoot Day

2014. That means, from 20th of August till the end of the year 2014, in order to support world

consumptions and human activities, the world economy has to exploit natural resources, such

as water, soil and gas, that nature is not able to recover back as usable as well as all the carbon

dioxide emissions will not be assimilated by the ecosystem anymore.

Till 70s, human activities where below Earth's biocapacity. From 80s, the world economy has

always overshoot the biocapacity and it's getting higher and higher every year. Financially

speaking, is like withdrawing from a bank account more money than incomes: It's not sustainable

in the long run.

Way towards ecological sustainability (Mankiw's Ten Principles)

According to Mankiw's ten Principles [2], there are manly two ways\approaches that might

promote ecological sustainability:

1. Regulations

2. Decision Making and Consumer Awareness

1. Regulations

Recalling the so called "invisible hand" of principle n.6, markets are a good way to organize

economic activities:

Households and firms that interact in market economies act as if they are guided

by an "invisible hand" that leads the market to allocate resources efficiently. The

opposite of this is economic activity that is organized by a central planner within

the government.

Meanwhile, Governments and policy makers can fix market inefficiencies, as stated in principle

n.7:

When a market fails to allocate resources efficiently, the government can change

the outcome through public policy. Examples are regulations against monopolies

and pollution

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Therefore, according to principle N.7, Governments and policy makers can

regulate market ecological inefficiencies towards sustainability as well. For example, through

incentives in renewable energies (see also principle n.2), taxes or regulations.

As an example, with regards to climate changes, Mankiw himself suggest (see A Carbon Tax

that America could love with, New York Times [3]) to put a price (tax) on carbon emissions. In

such a way, Governments, by charging a fee for each carbon emission, will "internalize the

external costs" due to climate changes (hurricanes, global warm,...).

Prices of Product\Services with higher carbons emissions will have higher prices and thus

people will be inactivated to buy other products with less carbon emissions (see also Principle

N.2), look for alternatives, or even not to buy it (see also principle N.1).

2. Decision Making and Consumer Awareness

Since people have a limited amount resources in terms of time and money, behind each

consumptions there is always a tradeoff.

That means, People Face Tradeoffs (principle n.1):

To get one thing, you have to give up something else. Making decisions requires

trading off one goal against another.

As an example, in the same post concerning climate changes [3], Mankiw's pointed out that

people might decide to:

� buy a smaller, more fuel-efficient car;

� use public transportation;

� eat more locally produced foods, which need less fuel to transport;

� ....

as a trade-off for introducing in the ecosystem less carbon emissions and waste.

Therefore, people decision-making and how much people is sensitive toward sustainability

issues when consuming, have an impact on the ecological footprint.

My issue about economic activities and (bio) sustai nability

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In order to achieve ecological sustainability, there are two approaches

argued among economists, activists, biologists and mathematicians. One is through regulations

(tax, incentives, agreements,...) and the second one through more responsable decision-making

by consumers and firms.

Regulation approach concerns "How Economic Work as a Whole" Mankiw's principles:

� n.5: Trade Can Make every one better off;

� n.6: Market are a good way to organize economic activity;

� n.7: Governments can improve economic outcomes;

While, Decision Making is about awareness on biological impacts of consumptions. "How People

Make Decisions" are explained by the following Mankiw's principles:

� n.1: People Face Trade Offs

� n.2: The Cost of Something is what you give up on get it

� n.3: Rational People think at the Margin

� n.4: People Respond to Incentives

Regarding regulations, Mankinw's himself complained how difficult is to convince politicians to

put a fee on a carbon tax. Elections debates are about reducing rather than increasing taxes [3]

and usually people is not willing to vote a candidate who promotes new taxes.

Concerning Decision Making, some researches applied thermodynamics principles (2nd Law)

to Economics (Thermoeconomics) and theirs conclusion was that each money transaction as

well as consumptions is essentially a flow of energy [4][5].

Thus, no matter if the decision is to buy a smaller and more, fuel-efficient car or use public

transportation: an amount of energy will be dispersed anyway.

But, what happen in everyday life when a new car is bought? Actually, there is a money flow from

the consumer to the retailer.

Thus, since for each consumption there are either a money flow and an energy flow, my issue

regarding ecological sustainability of economy is:

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Why not considering money as a measure of energy and biocapacity flows?

People use money as a tool for exchanges, and such interactions are described by the

remaining three Mankiw's principles (How People Interact):

� n.8: A Country's Standard of Living Depends on Its Ability to Produce Goods and Services;

� n.9: Prices Rise When the Government Prints Too Much Money;

� n.10: Society Faces a Short-Run Tradeoff Between Inflation and Unemployment;

Some scientists already pointed out the missing link between Information Theory (Cybernetics)

and social sciences (e.g. economy) as well as biologists have some concerns

about sustainability of an economy based on endless growth.

Thus, how to create a link between human economy and the Earth biocapacity thanks to the

achievements and researches in Economy, Physics, Biology and Cybernetic?

Decision Making and Policies have a key role for pursuing economy towards ecological

sustainability, as described by Mankiw's principles from number 1 to 7.

Nevertheless, till economy is not linked with natural environment and its limited

biocapacity neither policies and more conscious behaviors towards sustainability will be effective

since what is missing is how people interact: money flows and monetary policies.

With regardless to Mankiw's principle n.2:

The Cost of Something is What You Give Up to Get It.

So, how much does it cost to give up to link economy with natural environment?.

There is an Optimistic View about a self-regulation of the world economy that, thanks to the

supply-demand’s law, will guarantee an endless growth and energy efficiency as well [6].

However, relying mainly on the supply-demand's law it is a reactive, rather than proactive,

attitude towards sustainability.

Since economy is also a social science, having such an optimistic view it means forgetting what

happened in the 18th century to the population of Easter Island: they dropped from 15.000 to

2.000-3.000 inhabitants because of an ecology disaster created by themself.

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People of Easter Island realized supply-demand's effect when it was too late for recovering their

ecosystem and its biocapcity.

Economy, ecosystems and complex systems in general, have outcomes that are not predictable

and controllable in the long-run.

Avoiding to consider the constraint of a limited Earth's biocapacity, it means avoiding the risk of

definitely compromise the entire ecosystem without any chance for recovering.

So the question is: would all humankind be reactive or proactive towards the ecological

sustainability issue?


R E S O U R C E S

[1]: Earth Overshoot Day. "Global Footprint Network". www.footprintnetwork.org

[2]: N.Gregory Mankiw. Principles of Economics 6e. South-Western, Cenage Learning.

[3]: N.Gregory Mankiw. "A Carbon Tax that America could Love with". New York Times. 01.

Sept. 2014.

[4]: A. Annilla, S. Salthe. "Economy Evolves by Energy Dispersal". Entropy. 11-2009.

www.mdpi.com/journal/entropy/

[5]: M. Gong, G. Wall. "On Exergetics, Economics, and Optimization of Technical Process to

Meet Enviromental Conditions". International Conference on Thermodynamic Analysis and

Improvements on Energy Systems. 10-13 June 1997. Beijing, China.

[6]: Buttonwood's Notebook. "Energy use and Growth: an Optimistic View". The Economist. 26

June 2013.