february 5, 2009 mitchell e. bean, director€¦ · february 2009 3 interest rates 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7...

Economic andRevenue Forecasts:

Implications forMichigan’s Budget

Mitchell E. Bean, DirectorFebruary 5, 2009

Presentation for

Michigan House of Representatives

February 20092

GDP Forecast

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1

Percent Change2009Q1 – 2010Q4 are

January 2009 Consensus Estimates

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and January 2009 consensus

February 20093

Interest Rates

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1999 2000 2001 200 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Per

cent

Federal Funds 10-Year Treasury Yield

Source: IHS Global Insight, January 2009

February 20094

Index of Consumer SentimentJanuary 2004 Through January 2009

Source: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment

55

65

75

85

95

105

Jan 04 May 04 Sep 04 Jan 05 May 05 Sep 05 Jan 06 May 06 Sep 06 Jan 07 May 07 Sep 07 Jan 08 May 08 Sep 08 Jan 09

February 20095

U.S. Economy Has Lost 1.8 Million Jobs in Four Months

162

10757 74 81

140

60 41

(76) (83) (88) (67)(47)

(100)(67)

(127)

(403)

(320)

(584)

(524)

May 07 Jul 07 Sep 07 Nov 07 Jan 08 Mar 08 May 08 Jul 08 Sep 08 Nov 08

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor

February 20096

U.S. and MichiganUnemployment Rates

3%

7%

11%

15%

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

U.S.

Michigan

February 20097

U.S. % Change in EmploymentDecember 2007 Through December 2008

-2.0%

-8.8%

-5.9%

-2.8%

-3.6%-3.0%

-1.9%

-0.8%

Total Non-Farm

Construc- tion

Manufac- turing

WholesaleTrade

Retail Trade Information

FinancialActivities Services

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

February 20098

Michigan % Change in EmploymentDecember 2007 Through December 2008

-4.1%

-15.8%

-8.2%

-4.4%-3.4%

-6.1%

-3.9%-2.5%

Total Non-Farm

Construc- tion

Manufac- turing

WholesaleTrade

Retail Trade Information

FinancialActivities Services

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

February 20099

Total Existing Home Sales

-23%

-17%

-11%

-5%

1%

7%

13%

19%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

U.S.

Michigan

February 200910

U.S. Housing Starts Drop 73%From January 2006

500

800

1,100

1,400

1,700

2,000

2,300

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Source: New Privately Owned Housing Units Started, U.S. Dept of Commerce.

February 200911

Total Delinquencies

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

% o

f A

ll Lo

ans

U.S.

Michigan

Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association and Fannie Mae

February 200912

Length of U.S. Recessions

# of Months From Peak to Trough

11

16

6

16

8

8

10

13

1969-70

1973-75

1980

1981-82

1990-91

2001

Average Post War

2008 Through January ?

February 200913

Decline in GDP Steep Compared to Recent Recessions

-1.8%

-2.7%

-3.8%

-1.6%

-1.1%

-3.1%

-2.2%

-2.9%

-1.3%

-0.4%

-3.4%

1948 1953 1957 1960 1970 1973 1980 1981 1990 2001 2008

Source: Global Insight January 2009

Peak to Trough GDP Decline

February 200914

What Ends the Recession?

High oil and gasoline prices helped create the recession, but sharply declining prices are now acting as a stimulus

Massive federal intervention into financial markets prevented complete financial collapse and will help spur recovery

Significant federal stimulus anticipated of as much as $1 trillion over two years, including aid to the states

Time will also help heal the U.S. economy

February 200915

How Does It Compare?

Highest Since 19838.5%U.S. Unemployment Rate

Lowest Since 2003$34.25Oil (West Texas) $ per barrel

Lowest Since 19490.8%U.S. Personal Income (% change)

Lowest Since 1958-2.6%U.S. Payroll Employment (% change)

Lowest Back to 19590.604Housing Starts (million units)

1982: 10.5 million10.3Light Vehicle Sales (millions)

CommentsJanuary 2009 Forecast

Calendar 2009 Estimate

February 200916

MICHIGAN FORECAST

February 200917

Job Growth in Michigan

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

(112.2)

(76.9) (70.9)

(16.7) (9.1)

(63.1) (66.0)(80.0)

(193.0)

(72.0)

88.0

'91-'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

Thou

sand

s

Average AnnualJob Growth

‘09 and ’10are January 2009

Consensus Estimates

February 200918

Employment Location Quotientsby Industry: Michigan 2006

0.95Private non-manufacturing

1.05Manufacturing except autos and parts

12.29Detroit 3 vehicle and parts manufacturing (end of 2005)

7.15Automobile, light truck, and parts manufacturing

Location QuotientIndustry

Source: University of Michigan RSQE

February 200919

Big 3 Losing Market Share

12.913.9

15.1 14.8 15.1 15.2 15.6

17 17.4 17.2 16.8 16.6 16.9 16.9 16.5 16.1

13.1

10.8

12.2

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 201035%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Big 3 Share

January 2009

Consensus


February 200920

Michigan Vehicle Employment

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and January 2009 consensus

322.6 332.3 341.5 346.1317.0

296.9274.0

259.3241.2

221.4203.5

174.7

127.6103.3

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Thou

sand

s

January 2009Consensus

February 200921

Home Prices Fall Sharply

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Detroit, MI

10-city average

February 200922

Property Value Growth SlowingYearly Change

1.4%−1.3 %2.3 %2008−3.5%−5.0%4.1%2009

5.2 %3.8 %3.7 %20075.8 %5.0 %3.3 %20065.6 %5.9 %2.3 %20055.7 %6.3 %2.3 %20044.8 %7.5 %1.5 %20036.7 %9.8 %3.2 %20027.1 %10.0 %3.2 %20015.5 %9.0 %1.9 %20006.0 %9.9 %1.6 %19996.1 %9.5 %2.7 %19985.7 %8.2 %2.8 %19975.1 %7.5 %2.8%1996

Total TaxableValue Growth

Total SEVGrowth

Inflation RateMultiplier

for Property

Note: 2009 values are estimates

February 200923

Michigan Per Capita IncomeDeviation from National Average

Note: 2008, 2009, and 2010 are estimates

Apr

19

60

to

Feb

19

61

Dec

19

69

to

Nov

19

70

Nov

19

73

to

Mar

19

75

Jan

19

80

to

Jul 1

98

0

Jul 1

98

1 t

o N

ov 1

98

2

Jul 1

99

0 t

o M

ar 1

99

1

Mar

20

01

to

Nov

20

1

Dec

20

07

to

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

*20

09*

2010

*

13.09%

7.39%

-3.31%

2.35%

-1.23%

-12.94%


February 200924

Conclusion

U.S. in the worst recession in decades

What will eventually end the recession?

Lower oil prices

Financial bailout

Government stimulus

Time

Michigan has been in a long-term recession due to the auto sector

Michigan recovery will require

U.S. recovery

Stability in the auto sector

February 200925

MICHIGAN REVENUE

February 200926

State of Michigan Revenue SourcesFY 2008-09 Total = $41,952.4 million

Transportation Revenue$1,984.5

4.7%NonTax Revenue

$3,001.57.2%Other Taxes

$1,791.14.3%

State Education Tax

$2,010.24.8%

Tobacco Taxes$1,043.7

2.5%

Business Taxes$2,782.3

6.6%Income Taxes

$6,501.215.5%

Federal Funds$14,836.0

35.4%

Sales & Use Taxes$7,759.2

18.5%

Tobacco Settlement Revenue

$242.7 0.6%

February 200927

Inflation Adjusted GF/GP RevenueDown 35% Since FY 2000

$8,764

$9,463

$9,788

$8,042

$8,309$8,764

$6,981

$6,701 $6,638

$8,990

$8,306$8,427 $8,319

$8,266

$9,360

$7,935$7,959

$9,252

$7,548

$6,926

$9,242

$6,020

$6,409

$7,265

$8,214

$6,944

FY 98 FY 99 FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10

Thou

sand

s

FYs 09 and 10are January 2009

Consensus Estimates

Actual Dollars

Adjusted for Inflation

February 200928

Inflation Adjusted SAF Net RevenueDown 8% since FY 2000

FYs 09 and 10are January 2009

Consensus Estimates

$9,310

$9,889 $9,994$10,134

$10,715 $10,615

$10,910$11,082 $11,153

$9,131 $9,066

$9,349$9,141 $9,167

$8,983 $8,900

$11,290$11,369$11,513

$8,566$8,773

$8,936$9,347$9,092

$8,797


Thou

san

ds

Actual Dollars


February 200929

Sales/Use Tax Share Declining

Taxable Sales as a Percent of Personal Income

35%

37%

39%

41%

43%

45%

47%

49%

51%

FY 78 FY 80 FY 82 FY 84 FY 86 FY 88 FY 90 FY 92 FY 94 FY 96 FY 98 FY 00 FY 02 FY 04 FY 06 FY 08

Per

cent

of

Per

sona

l Inc

ome

FY 0838.4%

February 200930

Sales Tax Revenue

5.9%6.4%

1.4%1.9%

0.2%

4.2%

4.2%

5.1%

1.2% 0.6%

-0.3%-1.3%

3.4%

0.8%

-4.2%

FY 96 FY 97 FY 98 FY 99 FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10

% C

hang

e Fr

om P

rior

Yea

r

FYs 09 and 10 are January 2009

Consensus Estimates

February 200931

Transportation Revenue

$736.3$903.5 $931.0 $922.0 $933.5 $938.9 $935.7 $932.1 $922.4 $906.2 $883.7 $867.0 $858.3

$86.3

$118.3 $134.6 $143.5 $133.2 $143.0 $157.0 $140.5 $146.3 $148.6 $143.8 $146.5 $147.5

$647.2

$713.6$758.5 $802.9 $824.7 $877.1 $892.7 $978.5 $896.0 $898.8 $907.8 $911.6 $917.4

TOTAL$1,469.8

TOTAL$1,735.4

TOTAL$1,824.1

TOTAL$1,868.4

TOTAL$1,891.4

TOTAL$1,959.0

TOTAL$1,985.3

TOTAL$2,051.2 TOTAL

$1,964.7 TOTAL

$1,953.6 TOTAL

$1,935.3 TOTAL

$1,925.1 TOTAL

$1,923.2


Mill

ions

of

Dol

lars

Vehicle License & Registrations (net)

State Diesel Fuel Taxes

State $0.19/gallon Gasoline Tax

FYs 08 and 08 are estimates

February 200932

Michigan Gasoline Tax Revenue

$825

$850

$875

$900

$925

$950

FY 98 FY 99 FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09

Mill

ions

February 200933

Estimated Budget Shortfalls(Millions of Dollars)

($1,435.0)($204.2)TOTAL

($235.0)($38.2)SAF

($1,200.0)($166.0)GF/GP

Estimated Budget Shortfalls

($444.5)($917.2)TOTAL

($72.9)($338.7)SAF

($371.6)($578.5)GF/GP

Revenue Forecast Reductions

$713.0TOTAL

N/A$255.0SAF

N/A$458.0GF/GP

Unreserved Fund BalancesFY 2009-10FY 2008-09

February 200934

MICHIGAN’SBUDGET

February 200935

Federal$15,050,285,200

34.3%

State Sources$28,311,710,500

64.6%

Local/Private$496,655,300

1.1%

GF/GP$9,567,484,900

State Restricted$18,744,225,600

56.8%of State Sources

fundingis paid to

local governments

FY 2008-09 BudgetAdjusted Gross Funding Sources

Adjusted Gross = $43,858,651,000*

*at 1/21/09

February 200936

FY 2008-09Appropriations Funding

Adjusted Gross = $43,858,651,000*

Restricted/Other$17,340,830,100

39.5%

SAF$13,338,106,800

30.4%

GF/GP$9,567,484,900

21.8%

Transportation$3,612,229,200

8.2%

40.4% Federal57.6% State Restricted

2.0% Local

69.4% Federal28.2% State Restricted2.5% Local/Private

11.7% Federal88.3% State Restricted

*at 1/21/09

February 200937

FY 2008-09 GF/GP*

$324.6 millionPublic Safety

(State Police, Military and Veterans Affairs)

$332.0 millionGeneral Government (except debt service, SBA

rent, payments to local governments)

$112.1 millionDELEG and HAL

$159.3 millionJudiciary

$86.2 millionResource Protection(DNR, DEQ, Agriculture)

3.5%$333.0 million

Debt Service, SBA Rent, and Payments to Local Governments

85.9%$8,220.2 million

All Human Servicesand All Education

10.6%

*$9,567.5 million at 1/21/09

February 200938

School AidMajor Spending Categories

Foundation allowances(used for school operations)absorb $3 out of every $4 spent

Other Programs$476,504,100

3.6%

Foundation Allowances*

$9,888,750,000 73.9%

Early Childhood Programs

$117,404,100 0.9%

Federal Programs (non-Special Ed)$1,137,308,600

8.5%

At-Risk Programs$310,457,000

2.3%

Special Education$1,448,483,000

10.8%

FY 2008-09 Total = $13,378,906,800

* Does not include local revenue

February 200939

FY 2008-09 GF/GP Appropriations

ALL Human Services65.1%

ALL Education20.8%

All Others14.1%

Community Health: $3.1 billionHuman Services Dept: $1.2 billion

Corrections: $1.9 billion

(Includes Debt Service, SBA Rent, Payments to Locals, and

Department Budgets)Higher Education + Community Colleges: $1.9 billionEducation Dept: $7.4 million

School Aid (K-12): $40.8 million

*at 1/21/09

February 200940

Medicaid Impacton Michigan’s Budget

For FY 09, approximately 22.4% of Michigan GF/GP revenueis appropriated by Medicaid

1 of 7 Michigan residents were eligible for Medicaid inAugust 2008

37% of births and 70% of nursing home expendituresin Michigan are financed through Medicaid

Total state and federal Medicaid appropriation isover $9.9 billion in FY 09

Since FY 1999-2000

88.4% increase in Medicaid funding

46.6% growth in Medicaid caseload (495,100 cases)

February 200941

Department of Human ServicesFY 2008-09 GF/GP*

BUREAU OF CHILD & ADULT LICENSING$11.2 million GF/GP

CENTRAL ADMINISTRATION$34.4 million GF/GP

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY$53.7 million GF/GP

CHILD SUPPORT ENFORCEMENT PROGRAMS$25.4 million GF/GP

Legal Support Contracts, State Disbursement Unit, Child Support Incentive Payments, Operations, etc.

ADULT, CHILD & FAMILY SERVICES$201.0 million GF/GP

Adoption Subsidies/Support, Foster Care,Family Preservation/Prevention,

Domestic Violence/Rape Prevention,Teenage Parent Counseling,

Youth in Transition,Children’s Trust Fund Grants, etc.

PUBLIC ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS

$481.8 million GF/GP

Food, Day Care, State SSI/Disability,

FIP, Emergency Services, Refugee, Weatherization,

Low-Income Energy,Community Services Block

Grants,Employment/Training

Support, etc.

LOCAL OFFICE OPERATIONS & STAFF

$321.0 million GF/GP

JUVENILE JUSTICE PROGRAMS$155.9 million GF/GP

Child Care Fund, Community Centers, Facilities, Administration, etc.

*at November 2008

February 200942

Corrections Budget Increases

0

10

20

30

40

50

FY71 FY74 FY77 FY80 FY83 FY86 FY89 FY92 FY95 FY98 FY01 FY04 FY07

Pri

son/

Cam

p P

opul

atio

n in

Tho

usan

ds

Prison/Camp Population Corrections % of State GF/GP

FY07 20%

FY71 2%FY79 3%

FY89 9%

FY95 15%

FYs 08 and 09 based on year-to-date appropriations

February 200943

Adjusted Gross Appropriationsby Fund Source

Excluding federal funds, average annual growth rate = 1.3%

Bill

ion

s

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09

Federal Funds

Restricted Funds

GF/GP Funds

Local+Private Funds

February 200944

GF/GP Appropriations

$9,189.0

$8,766.9

$9,981.8

$8,612.6

$8,438.9

$8,176.8$8,251.0

$8,133.5$8,251.9

$9,567.5

$9,106.3 $9,118.7

$8,706.6

$8,830.9

$8,659.7

FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 YTD

Actual Dollars


Mill

ion

s of

Dol

lars

February 200945

School Aid BudgetAdjusted Gross Appropriations

$11,451.1

$12,554.7 $12,606.2$12,700.6

$13,008.2

$13,378.9

$11,708.5

$11,189.4

$12,467.1

$12,897.8

$12,134.5

$11,507.7

$12,244.3

$11,539.1$11,602.8


Actual Dollars


Mill

ion

s of

Dol

lars

February 200946

Transportation BudgetAdjusted Gross Appropriations

$3,101.4 $3,113.4

$3,219.2

$3,424.9 $3,408.2

$3,612.3

$3,036.4$3,098.7 $3,075.0 $3,103.2

$2,915.1

$3,274.2

$3,360.2

$3,115.6$3,040.0


Actual Dollars


Mill

ion

s of

Dol

lars

February 200947

Average Numberof Classified State Employees

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

FY71 FY74 FY77 FY80 FY83 FY86 FY89 FY93 FY95 FY98 FY01 FY04 FY07

Thou

sand

s of

Em

ploy

ees

17.2% DecreaseFY 01 to FY 09 YTD at 1/10/09

TOTAL All Departments

19.2% DecreaseFY 01 to FY 09 YTD at 1/10/09

TOTAL Without Corrections

February 200948

CURRENTISSUES

February 200949

Major School Aid Issues

Funding levels

Declining enrollment

Future issues:

Retirement costs

Infrastructure financing

Local property taxes

February 200950

School Retirement Contribution Rate

4.0% 4.0% 4.6% 5.6% 6.1% 6.1% 6.1% 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 6.8%

7.1% 6.7%7.1%

6.6% 6.1% 6.9% 6.9%8.3%

9.8%11.2% 10.2% 9.7%11.1% 10.8%

11.7% 12.2% 12.2%13.0% 13.0%

14.9%

16.3%17.7%

16.7% 16.5%

6.6%

FY 98 FY 99 FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09Health Rate Pension Rate

Decreased rate due to MSPERSfund assets revaluation

Rate growth subsidized with MPSERSStabilization Subaccount funds in FY 04

(wholly) and FY 05 (partially)

Decreased rate due to MSPERSfund assets revaluation

February 200951

Total Membership Pupil Counts

1,697,537

1,680,282

1,652,332

1,620,530

1,591,100

1,707,357

1,688,996

1,671,174

1,646,747

1,615,579

1,592,726

1,698,414

1,706,4071,710,630

1,714,7051,714,185

FY 95 FY 96 FY 97 FY 98 FY 99 FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10

Pupil Blend

50/50 FYs 95–97

60/40 FYs 98–99

75/25 FY 00

80/20 FYs 01–04

75/25 FYs 05–10

Note: FY 09 unaudited count; FY 10 January 2009 consensus estimate

February 200952

Revenue Sharing Payments toCities, Villages, and Townships

$1,000

$1,050

$1,100

$1,150

$1,200

$1,250

$1,300

$1,350

$1,400

$1,450

FY 99 FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09*

Mill

ion

s

Full Funding Actual/Estimated

Statutory and Constitutional Payments

*HFA January 2009 estimate

February 200953

Law Enforcement

613 613

622

610 609607

609 609

23,150 23,157

21,81521,613 21,581

21,429

22,932

22,174

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*

Agencies

Positions

Source: Michigan Commission on Law Enforcement Standards

February 200954

Statewide Pavement ConditionCombined Freeway and Non-Freeway

Source: Michigan Department of Transportation website

64%66%

69%71%

78%

82%

86%

89%

92% 92%90%

87%

83%

78%76%

73%

75%75%73%

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Per

cen

t P

avem

ent

in G

oo

d C

on

dit

ion

Existing Condition Projected Condition Goal

February 200955

Reduced State RevenueMay Lead to Loss of Federal Aid

$1,327$1,203

$647$495 $582

$150

$569$631

$661

$1,203

$1,477

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mill

ions

Federal Aid Lost

Program Advancement

Program Total With Routine Maintenance

Source: Michigan Department of Transportation website

February 200956

Total Appropriations forState University Operations

$1,615.5

$1,565.9

$1,428.6 $1,419.8 $1,433.2$1,452.7

$1,467.3

$1,379.7

$1,341.7

$1,286.4 $1,278.4$1,260.3 $1,265.5

$1,433.3$1,527.2

FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09

Actual Dollars

Adjusted for Inflation*

Note: Appropriations include delayed payments in fiscal year in which funds were originally appropriated

Mill

ion

s of

Dol

lars

February 200957

State University Tuition Ratesand State Funding

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

FY89 FY91 FY93 FY95 FY97 FY99 FY01 FY03 FY05 FY07 FY09

% C

hang

e Fr

omm

Pri

or Y

ear

State Funding/Student

Average Resident Undergraduate Tuition/Fee Rate

February 200958

Constitutional Revenue Limit

($7.

35)

($4.

22)

$0.1

6

($2.

41)

($3.

92)

($4.

18)

($4.

44)

($4.

95)

($5.

32)

($4.

70)

($6.

24)

FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10

FYs 08, 09, and 10are January 2009

Consensus Estimates

Billions of Dollars

Average growth of Michigan revenue = 0.84% per year from 2000 through 2010

Average growth of Michigan personal income = 1.8% per year from 2000 through 2010

www.house.mi.gov/hfa

february 5, 2009 mitchell e. bean, director€¦ · february 2009 3 interest rates 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7...

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