1Stefan BauschardFebruary 24 PoliticsTPA Neg21NC U32NC U4U Republican Support10U Obama Pushing11U - -Top of the Docket12U A2: Thumpers14U -- A2 AUMF Thumper16U A2: Budget Thumper18U A2: Immigration Thumper20U A2: Currency21IL TPA Key to Other Trade Agreements23IL PC Key26Impact Open Internet28Impact Russia31Impact Asia War33Impact Asia34Impact -- A2: No Asian War36Impact Global Free Trade37Impact US Economy42AUMF Neg43AUMF U44TPA Aff45Aff46A2: Open Internet Impact50AUMF Aff52TPA Neg1NC UTPA will pass by a slim margin of support now

Reuters, 2-23-15, Fast Track Authority a Close Call in US Congress, http://www.dairyherd.com/news/fast-track-trade-authority-close-call-us-congress DOA: 2-24-15

Lawmakers' approval of a bill to streamline the passage of trade deals through the U.S. Congress will be a "close call," U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said last week. U.S. officials are lobbying lawmakers to support legislation allowing the White House to submit trade deals to Congressfor a yes-or-no vote, without amendments, in exchange for setting negotiating goals. "I think it's a very close call right now," Vilsack said at the annual U.S. Department of Agriculture Outlook Forum, according to trade publication Inside US Trade."I think there's still work that needs to be done to make sure that people are comfortable in knowing there's adequate transparency, and understanding and appreciating thatCongress is not surrendering its power to the executive branch." Opponents of trade promotion authority, or fast-track, include conservative Republicans against granting more authority to the White House and Democrats worried about the impact of trade deals, such as the 12-nation Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), on jobs. As part of the lobbying effort, the White House has posted a YouTube video touting the benefits of trade and senior administration officials are visiting towns and cities around the country and speaking to small businesses. U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman toured a Mary Kay cosmetics factory inDallas, Texas on Tuesday and Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker has been to Tacoma, San Francisco, Portland and Seattle. "Trade promotion legislation is a hard vote to get passed," she said on a media call on Thursday to promote the benefits of trade and exports in Minnesota. "This is not going to pass by wide margins, it will pass by a small margin, but it will pass because it's the right thing to do."Experts say fast-track will give trading partners security deals that will not be picked apart in Congress once they are agreed on and is important to get a good deal on the TPP, which is nearing completion. Trade skeptics are also lobbying lawmakers to reject the bill, which Senate Committee on Finance Chairman Orrin Hatch has said he hopes to introduce this month. A coalition of 35 religious groups - including Christian, Muslim and Jewish organizations - wrote to members of Congress this week urging them to oppose fast-track.

2NC U

Deal close, TPA will passWilliam Baldwin, 2-23-15, Australian Business Review, Deal close on sweeping fast-track Asia pact, http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wall-street-journal/deal-close-on-sweeping-fast-track-asia-trade-pact/story-fnay3ubk-1227234503082 DOA: 2-24-15

HOUSE and Senate negotiators are converging on a deal to ease the passage of trade agreements, a key step in putting the divisive issue before the full congress as the White House pursues a sweeping trade pact in Asia. The legislation, known as trade promotion authority or fast track, comes as the Obama administration seeks to conclude negotiations on a 12-nation Pacific trade deal the economic centrepiece of the presidents rebalancing of US policy towards Asia. Fast track allows congress to set negotiating priorities for the administration and provide input, while ensuring a deal struck overseas would get a congressional vote with no amendments or procedural delays. Fast track is popular with Republicans but has many Democratic critics. Business groups and other backers of trade agreements say the legislation is critical to assure trading partners they wont be asked for deeper concessions on Capitol Hill after negotiations are complete. Observers say aides to congressional committee leaders Orrin Hatch, Ron Wyden and Paul Ryan have settled most disagreements over the legislation. One remaining issue a technical but crucial element is how Congress would be able to remove an unacceptable trade deal from the fast track process. Complications on that issue or others could still delay or unravel any agreement. A deal to introduce the legislation could be reached in days, observers say, after Mr Ryan returns from a trade-focused trip to Asia. Im optimistic that its going to be concluded next week, said Bill Reinsch, president of the National Foreign Trade Council, a group backing the legislation.

will passObama needs to maintain his all out pushInside US Trade, 2/13/15, New Dems Say White House In Early Phase Of Building Support For TPA, TPP, insidetrade.com/inside-us-trade/new-dems-say-white-house-early-phase-building-support-tpa-tpp

The White House effort to gin up support for President Obama's trade agenda and Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) in Congress is still in a preliminary phase of trying to sway trade skeptics and has not yet advanced to the point of counting votes, members of the congressional New Democrat Coalition indicated on Feb. 11. After a closed-door meeting on Capitol Hill with White House National Economic Council Director Jeff Zients, New Democrat Chairman Ron Kind (D-WI) and Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY) characterized the initiative that Zients is spearheading to build support for TPA as "outreach" and an "information effort." "I don't know if you'd call it a 'whipping effort,' but certainly outreach," Kind told Inside U.S .Trade. "You're just seeing a much higher level of engagement by the administration from the president on down - Cabinet secretaries, to [Zients] and his team now, too." Rep. Scott Peters (D-CA) and Meeks said the meeting with Zients was largely focused on trade policy in addition to other aspects of Obama's economic agenda, which Meeks said included infrastructure and tax policy. Although both declined to offer specifics about Zients' message, Peters indicated that Zients intoned many of the same points Obama made on trade in last month's State of the Union address. Meeks also cautioned against labeling the White House initiative a whip operation, dubbing it an "information effort" aimed at countering notions advanced by critics that TPA gives away congressional power or that the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a repeat of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). He acknowledged that the administration is already facing declarations from a majority of House Democratic freshmen in opposition to TPA, and attributed this in part to a lack of "information" on the issues from the administration and other TPA supporters to date. Meeks expressed confidence that this was a pattern that could start to be reversed in light of the new White House engagement. "These are freshmen. They've never voted on this before, and that's before they've gotten information," Meeks said. "So the information was not getting out, in my opinion, in the way or the manner that it should have been. That is what's being fixed now: get the free flow of information out there so that members can articulate those things to their constituents." As part of this effort, Meeks said, the administration is trying to put the word out in Congress that lawmakers can view the draft text of the TPP to gain a sense of what is in it - and how it is different from NAFTA. Meeks added, however, that it is difficult for the administration to count votes in support of TPA renewal legislation or the TPP agreement as a TPA bill has not yet been introduced and the negotiations have not been finalized. Whether this transparency push will reassure skeptics is unclear. Some skeptical lawmakers, such as Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-TX), have acknowledged that members can view the texts, but complained that they are not able to have their personal expert staff accompany them or take notes. House Ways & Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI) and Ranking Member Sander Levin (D-MI) are pressing the executive branch to give Congress more access to negotiating texts, and Ryan said last week he expects this issue to be resolved by the time he releases a bill to renew TPA. A congressional source said this issue would likely be dealt with in the TPA bill Ryan is expected to introduce with other lawmakers in the coming weeks (Inside U.S. Trade, Feb. 6). Meeks also signaled that a part of the campaign by the administration will involve Obama making the case for trade more broadly in public speeches around the country. "The president himself will be going out, traveling across to Middle America, to talk to them about why this is important to get done and how this helps them and their families," Meeks said. "The president will be aggressively going out and talking to people in that regard."TPA will pass the Senate

Kristina Peterson, 2-23-15, Wall Street Journal, Bernie Sanders Expects Trade Promotion Bill to Pass Senate Over His Opposition, http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/02/23/bernie-sanders-expects-trade-promotion-bill-to-pass-senate/ DOA: 2-24-15Sen. Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.) said he expected a deal to ease congressional passage of trade agreements would pass the Senate, despite his own opposition. I strongly disagree with the president on trade, Mr. Sanders said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal Monday, noting that he had discussed the issue with President Barack Obama recently. The Vermont lawmaker said previous trade agreements had destroyed U.S. jobs and reduced wages at other U.S. firms trying to be more competitive with overseas companies. They have been abysmal failures, Mr. Sanders said of earlier trade agreements. The White House is working on persuading some Democrats to support legislation, known as trade promotion authority or fast track, allowing Congress to set negotiating priorities for the administration and provide input, while ensuring a deal struck overseas would get a congressional vote with no amendments or procedural delays. I dont think the president is going to change my mind, Mr. Sanders said.TPA close to passage---insidersMauldin, 2/20(WSJ Columnist, Top Senate, House Lawmakers Nearing Deal on Trade Promotion Authority, http://www.wsj.com/articles/top-senate-house-lawmakers-nearing-deal-on-trade-promotion-authority-1424467559)

House and Senate negotiators are converging on a deal to ease the passage of trade agreements, a key step in putting the divisive issue before the full Congress as the White House pursues a sweeping trade pact in Asia. The legislation, known as trade promotion authority or fast track, comes as the Obama administration is seeking to conclude negotiations on a 12-nation Pacific trade dealthe economic centerpiece of the presidents rebalancing of U.S. policy toward Asia. Fast track allows Congress to set negotiating priorities for the administration and provide input, while ensuring a deal struck overseas would get a congressional vote with no amendments or procedural delays. Fast track is popular with Republicans but has many Democratic critics. Business groups and other backers of trade agreements say the legislation is critical to assure trading partners they wont be asked for deeper concessions on Capitol Hill after negotiations are complete. Aides to congressional committee leaders Sen. Orrin Hatch (R., Utah), Sen. Ron Wyden (D., Ore.) and Rep. Paul Ryan (R., Wis.) have settled most disagreements over the legislation, say people familiar with the talks. One remaining issuea technical but crucial elementis how Congress would be able to remove an unacceptable trade deal from the fast track process, these people say. Complications on that issue or others could still delay or unravel any agreement, they say. A deal to introduce the legislation could be reached in days, observers say, after Mr. Ryan returns from a trade-focused trip to Asia. Im optimistic that its going to be concluded next week, said Bill Reinsch, president of the National Foreign Trade Council, a group backing the legislation. Mr. Hatch on Friday called a hearing next week of his Senate Finance Committee to discuss trade policy and potentially the new bill. But Mr. Wyden, the top Democrat on the panel, said a hearing is premature because a final deal hasnt been struck yet. Mr. Ryan said Thursday in Japan that a deal is very close.

TPA push is in the 11th hourpassage likelyReuters, 2/19/15, U.S. lawmaker sees fast-track trade power soon in step towards trade pact, www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/19/us-asia-trade-tpp-usa-idUSKBN0LN0ME20150219

The chairman of a U.S. congressional committee responsible for trade said on Thursday he expects passage of legislation to fast-track trade deals soon, a vital step towards a Pacific trade pact covering a large chunk of the global economy. Negotiators from 12 Pacific nations hope to conclude talks on a Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) within months, and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan said legislation known as trade promotion authority (TPA) should pass soon, easing a major hurdle. "We're very close, we're in the 11th hour of negotiating the final pieces of TPA," Ryan, in Tokyo with a Congressional delegation for negotiations, told a news conference ahead of a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. "Once those negotiations are wrapped up we anticipate moving ... fairly quickly, and that's really this spring," he said. Ryan said he hoped the TPP could then be concluded soon after the TPA was passed. Dave Reichert, a lawmaker who is also a member of Ryan's committee, said they hoped to clinch a deal by the end of the year.

That push secures sufficient votesInside US Trade, 2/17/15, Tiberi Underscores Challenges Of TPA Passage, But Remains Optimistic, insidetrade.com/daily-news/tiberi-underscores-challenges-tpa-passage-remains-optimistic

House Ways & Means trade subcommittee Chairman Pat Tiberi (R-OH) last week indicated that efforts to build congressional support for a Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) or fast-track bill are facing challenges due to a more vocal opposition movement bolstered in part by social media and the notion among some Republicans that passing TPA amounts to ceding undue authority to the president, according to informed sources.But Tiberi also expressed optimism that Congress will be able to pass TPA despite these challenges, especially given the push by President Obama to garner votes for getting it done, sources said.He spoke during a closed-door meeting of business representatives last week at which administration officials also provided an update of their efforts to build support for TPA through a task force led by National Economic Council Director Jeff Zients.These officials underlined the importance of building support for a TPA bill as soon as possible after it is introduced, sources said. They also said members of Obama's cabinet as well as other senior officials would be touting the trade agenda in events around the country during this week's President's Day recess.Tiberi noted that TPA passage was difficult even in 2002, but it is made even harder now by the existence of social media, talk radio and louder statements from interest groups, according to these sources.He said his assessment, after participating in a whip meeting the previous day, was that much more work needs to be done to educate Republican members about TPA, especially to confirm that TPA does not mean Congress is giving away its authority to the president, sources said.In a TPA bill, Congress abrogates its power to amend bills and agrees to an up-or-down vote on a trade agreement eligible for fast-track protection.Similarly, Ways & Means Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI) indicated in a Feb. 13 press briefing that more work needs to be done to convince skeptical members of the Republican caucus to support TPA. He noted that although Republicans are by and large pro-trade, there are still a lot of misconceptions about what TPA is. And we are in the middle of making sure that we clear up those misconceptions, he said.Together with House Rules Committee Chairman Pete Sessions (R-TX), Tiberi is co-chairing a House Republican trade working group that is laboring to build support for TPA among the caucus and will begin whipping members once a bill is introduced.Tiberi told business representatives that he believes a TPA bill should be launched in the Senate, an idea also put forth by Ryan in a separate Feb. 13 press briefing. These appear to be signals that this idea is gaining traction. Having a strong vote in the Senate is meant to provide political cover for hesitant House Democrats.In the past, this is an approach advocated by supporters of a given trade measure in the face of uncertain support in the House.

TPA passage likelyElaine Kurtenbach, AP, 2/19/15, US lawmakers say agreement on trade promotion authority near, www.theolympian.com/2015/02/19/3584410/us-lawmakers-say-agreement-on.html

A bipartisan congressional agreement on granting President Barack Obama trade promotion authority for a pan-Pacific trade deal is likely this spring, U.S. lawmakers visiting Japan said Thursday.Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, and seven other lawmakers were meeting with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and other top Japanese officials, promoting the U.S.-led Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP.Ryan and the other lawmakers said they believed the TPP was crucial for both economies and that there was growing support for giving the president the authority to reach an agreement."We see a good team building on this issue. We're working with Democrats right now in drafting TPA legislation," Ryan said.Progress toward a final TPP agreement among the dozen countries involved in the trade talks hinges partly on settling disputes between the U.S. and Japan on trade in farm products and autos that have obliged negotiators to keep pushing deadlines back.Trade promotion authority would set guidelines but let the White House send Congress a trade proposal to adopt or reject, but not amend. Every president since Franklin Roosevelt has had some form of enhanced trade-dealing powers, but Obama still lacks it.Without that guarantee, it is harder for the other countries involved in the talks to make tough political decisions.Despite opposition to both the TPP initiative and TPA among labor groups and many Democrats, Ryan said he believes an agreement is possible."We are the committee that writes TPA. We are in the closing stages of finalizing the legislation. We anticipate passing this legislation this spring," Ryan said.Rep. Gregory Meeks of New York, the sole Democrat in Ryan's delegation and a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said he believed the TPA and TPP legislation would "pass in a bipartisan way."

Their evidence just discusses the strength of oppositionit does not translate into enough votes to block TPA yetJonathan Weisman, 2/9/15, Left and Right Align in Fighting Obamas Trade Agenda, www.nytimes.com/2015/02/10/business/left-and-right-align-in-fighting-obamas-trade-agenda.html

Those in the pro-trade coalition express confidence they have the numbers they need to pass trade promotion authority. Administration officials say the voices on the left and right may be loud, but they are still a small fringe.But they have work to do. About 150 of the Houses 188 Democrats have already signed on to letters opposing fast track, an ominous figure for the president, since Mr. Boehner said last Congress he would need as many as 50 Democratic votes.In 2013, 22 House Republicans signed on to their own opposition letter, of which 17 remain in Congress. And since then, mainstream Republicans like Eric Cantor of Virginia and Tom Petri of Wisconsin were replaced by Tea Party-aligned conservatives who may be less likely to lend the president the support.Its going to require supporters of this policy to overcome objections from both Democrats and Republicans, Josh Earnest, the White House press secretary, said. And the president will make a case, and he will make this case to both Democrats and Republicans.

Passage likely, but capital key to smooth remaining disputes Michael White, Global Trade Daily, 2/17/15, Fast Track Authority Expected to Pass Congress, www.globaltrademag.com/global-trade-daily/news/fast-track-authority-expected-to-pass-congress

A top legislator in Washington is confident that legislation will clear some remaining legal hurdles and become law, giving the White House so-called fast track authority to negotiate international agreements without the threat of Congressional amendment or filibuster. The next round of talks aimed at renewing Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) is set to begin next month with the expectation that a deal could be struck at that time with bi-partisan support, says Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin), chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee. Ryan, whose powerful committee oversees trade legislation, is seen as the standard bearer for renewed TPA on Capitol Hill. Speaking at a recent meeting of the Washington (D.C.) International Trade Association, Ryan, whose committee oversees the flow of trade legislation, said, Were in active discussions with our counterparts over in the Senate and Im optimistic about those. Renewed TPA would allow the president to submit both the proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreements to Congress for straight up-or-down votes without any amendments. Ryan argued the legislation was much more than that, since it is the primary means by which Congress tells the executive branch what it wants in trade agreements. We say to the administration, if you want this up-or-down vote, you have to meet three requirements: Number one, you have to follow our guidelines. Number two, you have to talk to us. And number three, you have to remember: We get the final say, Ryan said, comparing the legislation to a contract between Congress and the White House. Congress and the Obama administration must work together to seek the best way to move forward, he said while voicing a cautionary note acknowledging that there are a number of issues from currency manipulation to market access that need to be addressed before TPA becomes a reality. The countries we have agreements with, we have a manufacturing surplus with, Ryan said. If you look at the countries we do not have agreements with, we have a big trade deficit with, so getting agreements is good for our workers, its good for manufacturing, its good for agriculture. Critics of renewed TPA say that big business has had the greatest influence on past trade negotiations, which is one reason why the programs have failed to create the jobs promised. They believe using fast track to reach agreement on the Trans Pacific Partnership will produce the same disappointing results. We do trade deals knowing were going to have increased trade deficits, according to Communications Workers of America President Larry Cohen in one media report. Theres not one good reason for doing it. On the other hand, a number of industry groups including the National Association of Manufacturers, have come out in favor of renewed TPA. Its certainly something thats very valuable to have, said Chris Moore, the groups senior director of international trade policy. Its really important for job growth and competitiveness. Another is the Software & Information Industry Association, which has urged 18 Democratic members of the House of Representatives to support President Obamas call for Trade Promotion Authority. Renewed TPA, the group said, would promote trade deals that include provisions on data flows and intellectual property that are crucial to the American economy and our workers.

U Republican Support

Republicans support TPA now

Mike Masnick, 2-23-15, Tech Dirt, Trade Agreements Should Protect an Open Internet, Not Kill It, https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20150222/17384530109/trade-agreements-should-protect-open-internet-not-kill-it.shtml DOA: 2-25-14

In the fight over the TPP (and the other big trade agreement, with Europe, called the TTIP or TAFTA), an important side issue is over so-called "fast track" authority, or (more officially) "trade promotion authority." This is where Congress basically tells the USTR that it will only take a single "yes/no" vote on whatever the USTR comes back with, rather than delving into the details of the trade agreement and challenging specific aspects of it. In fact, there's an argument that, without fast track authority, the USTR can't really commit the US to anything. What's really odd is that, in a Republican-controlled Congress that seems to want to fight President Obama on just about anything that even has a whiff of the executive branch having more power, it's those Republicans in Congress who are pushing strongly for fast track authority -- effectively giving up their (Constitutionally-mandated) power to regulate international trade.Republicans will cooperate with Obama on trade

Bill Guida, 2-24-15, Kenosha News, Ryan sees common ground with President on trade, http://www.kenoshanews.com/news/ryan_sees_common_ground_with_president_on_trade_481464245.html DOA 2-25-15U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan said Monday as chairman of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee his top goals include finding common ground with President Barack Obama. I plan on rolling out ideas how we can do things differently ... I need to show how I can do that, not just talk about it, Ryan said. During a visit to the Kenosha News, Ryan, R-Wis., cited trade promotion as the one area where he already has some agreement with Obama and therefore the greatest likelihood for bi-partisan action to position the U.S. as the most powerful player in the international arena. Noting 90 percent of consumers live in countries outside the U.S., Ryan said called trade promotion a key to driving the countrys economy from the standpoint of employers, employees and the U.S. as a whole. The goal is accessing those markets ... Either we write trade agreements, or China does. Thats why I agree with President Obama on this, Ryan said. Either China leads, or we do. Because jobs producing goods for export typically offer workers higher pay than those producing items for domestic buyers, its paramount for the White House and Congress to develop a trade promotion authority bill in tandem, Ryan added.

U Obama Pushing

Obama pushing TPA, ready for a vote soonVicki Needham, 2-23, 15, The Hill, Battle Over trade Continues, http://thehill.com/policy/finance/233543-trade-debate-remains-hot-topic DOA: 2-24-15In recent months, President Obama and his Cabinet have taken aggressive steps to persuade Democrats to support TPA and the broader trade agenda. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-Utah), panel ranking member Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) are working on an updated version of the legislation, which could be ready by the end of the month.

U - -Top of the Docket

TPA will be introduced in days

Mike Masnick, 2-23-15, Tech Dirt, Trade Agreements Should Protect an Open Internet, Not Kill It, https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20150222/17384530109/trade-agreements-should-protect-open-internet-not-kill-it.shtml DOA: 2-25-14

Either way, it is strongly expected that Congress will introduce some sort of Trade Promotion Authority bill in the coming days, even as the key Democrat involved in this issue, Senator Ron Wyden, has pushed back on hearings planned by Senator Orrin Hatch for later this week.

Legislation ready soon

Vicki Needham, 2-23-15, The Hill, Froman Makes Pitch for Trade Promotion Authority, http://thehill.com/policy/finance/233468-froman-makes-pitch-for-trade-promotion-authority DOA: 2-24-15Opponents of the trade deals have been on a similar nationwide tour, arguing that the agreements too closely resemble trade policy of old and should be rejected until a new model is put into place. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-Utah), panel ranking member Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) are working on an updated version of the legislation, which is expected to be ready soon.

TPA passes soonprefer recent political opinion over past TPA billsReuters, 2-19-15 (U.S. lawmaker sees fast-track trade power soon in step towards trade pact, http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/19/us-asia-trade-tpp-usa-idUSKBN0LN0ME20150219, accessed 2-19-15, CMM)The chairman of a U.S. congressional committee responsible for trade said on Thursday he expects passage of legislation to fast-track trade deals soon, a vital step towards a Pacific trade pact covering a large chunk of the global economy. Negotiators from 12 Pacific nations hope to conclude talks on a Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) within months, and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan said legislation known as trade promotion authority (TPA) should pass soon, easing a major hurdle. "We're very close, we're in the 11th hour of negotiating the final pieces of TPA," Ryan, in Tokyo with a Congressional delegation for negotiations, told a news conference ahead of a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. "Once those negotiations are wrapped up we anticipate moving ... fairly quickly, and that's really this spring," he said. Ryan said he hoped the TPP could then be concluded soon after the TPA was passed. Dave Reichert, a lawmaker who is also a member of Ryan's committee, said they hoped to clinch a deal by the end of the year.TPA is at the top of the agenda Obamas pushing Needham, The Hill, 1-13-15 (Vicki, Trade tops Ryan's Ways and Means 2015 agenda, http://thehill.com/policy/finance/229313-ryan-makes-trade-a-top-priority, accessed 1-13-15, CMM)New House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan said Tuesday that giving President Obama expanded trade powers would be a top priority this year as the powerful panel seeks an avenue for faster economic growth. The Wisconsin Republican identified trade promotion authority (TPA) as the first issue he would tackle. Under TPA, also known as fast-track authority, Congress gets an up-or-down vote on any trade deal that reaches Capitol Hill. Ryan said TPA would give Congress the power to set negotiation objectives for trade agreements, get the best deal from global partners and hold the Obama administration accountable on trade. Building a healthy economy, that is our mission this year, Ryan said at his first hearing at the helm of the tax-writing committee. Ryan and other Republicans on the panel said that expanding trade will open more markets to U.S. exports and, in turn, boost jobs creation and economic growth. "As we all know, 96 percent of the worlds consumers, they don't live here," Ryan said. "I believe Americans can compete with any country. We just need to give them a chance," Ryan said. "Break down these barriers and American trade along with American jobs will take off." Rep. Sandy Levin (Mich.), the top Democrat on the panel, said a 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is at a "vital juncture" and many important issues have yet to be resolved that will require bipartisan discussions. Levin called the TPP the "most significant negotiation in over 20 years and urged Ryan to work with Democrats on the details of TPP to ensure that Congress is a full partner in shaping the massive agreement, which includes nations from Chile to Japan. The president, who met with House and Senate leaders at the White House on Tuesday, reiterated that there's an opportunity to work together on trade. Negotiators working on the TPP have said they hope to complete the deal early this year. If that happens, it would probably take another six months or so to get the deal ready for votes in the House and Senate. Republicans on both sides of the Capitol have expressed support for granting fast-track power, which boosts the chances of approving any trade deal that reaches Congress. Rep. Charles Boustany Jr. (R-La.) said during the hearing that TPA would give U.S. negotiators the "best leverage to move forward" in the talks and that other nations such as Japan won't put their best offers on the table until Congress can get it passed. Rep. Pat Tiberi (R-Ohio), the new chairman of the panels trade subcommittee who backs quick passage of fast-track, asked witnesses what they consider trade's top benefits. In response, Douglas Holtz-Eakin president of the American Action Forum, said moving forward on fast-track authority now is important because it gives the United States a chance to write global trade rules that will benefit the U.S. economy. He said opening markets will grow jobs and help the labor market return to full employment. It means better income and better jobs, not just more, but peoples jobs will be better as a result, he told the panel. He said the TPP and another major trade pact dubbed the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) have the potential to create more than 1 million U.S. jobs and boost growth by more than $200 billion. But many Democrats have expressed frustration with the secrecy of the negotiations and are concerned that trade deals would hurt American workers. Meanwhile, the Obama administration is stepping up its outreach to the business community and lawmakers in its effort to bolster support for trade. Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker, Small Business Administration head Maria Contreras-Sweet and deputy U.S. Trade Representative Robert Holleyman are sitting down on Tuesday with a wide range of business leaders to discuss how trade policy affects their businesses at a roundtable organized by the White House Business Council and advocacy group Business Forward. Under President Obamas leadership, the U.S. is spearheading the most significant trade agenda in history, Holleyman said.

U A2: Thumpers

TPA next week. No evidence their thumper is before that

William Baldwin, 2-23-15, Australian Business Review, Deal close on sweeping fast-track Asia pact, http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wall-street-journal/deal-close-on-sweeping-fast-track-asia-trade-pact/story-fnay3ubk-1227234503082 DOA: 2-24-15

HOUSE and Senate negotiators are converging on a deal to ease the passage of trade agreements, a key step in putting the divisive issue before the full congress as the White House pursues a sweeping trade pact in Asia. The legislation, known as trade promotion authority or fast track, comes as the Obama administration seeks to conclude negotiations on a 12-nation Pacific trade deal the economic centrepiece of the presidents rebalancing of US policy towards Asia. Fast track allows congress to set negotiating priorities for the administration and provide input, while ensuring a deal struck overseas would get a congressional vote with no amendments or procedural delays. Fast track is popular with Republicans but has many Democratic critics. Business groups and other backers of trade agreements say the legislation is critical to assure trading partners they wont be asked for deeper concessions on Capitol Hill after negotiations are complete. Observers say aides to congressional committee leaders Orrin Hatch, Ron Wyden and Paul Ryan have settled most disagreements over the legislation. One remaining issue a technical but crucial element is how Congress would be able to remove an unacceptable trade deal from the fast track process. Complications on that issue or others could still delay or unravel any agreement. A deal to introduce the legislation could be reached in days, observers say, after Mr Ryan returns from a trade-focused trip to Asia. Im optimistic that its going to be concluded next week, said Bill Reinsch, president of the National Foreign Trade Council, a group backing the legislation.

Obama is set up for legislative victoriescurrent fights solidify Dem unitySarah Mimms, National Journal, 2/18/15, Why Democrats Won't Cave on Immigration, www.nationaljournal.com/congress/why-democrats-won-t-cave-on-immigration-20150218

Just a few months ago, Democrats couldn't get far enough away from President Obama's immigration policy. At the behest of red-state members, leadership pushed the White House to hold off on an executive action until after Election Day, worried that it would be the noose around the necks of the party's most vulnerable members. Fast-forward to February, and with a shutdown at the Department of Homeland Security fast approaching, Democrats in red states and blue are holding strong, voting repeatedly against legislation to defund the president's action despite incessant GOP threats that they will pay a political price. So what changed? For one thing, Republicans made it easy for them, Democrats say, by tying the immigration rollback to DHS fundingalong with controversial amendments defunding the president's 2012 Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, which remains popular among Democratic constituents. "There's some of my colleagues that feel that the executive order might have gone too far, but they still feel that the way the Republicans want to do this is not the right approach," said Rep. Henry Cuellar, a member of the conservative Blue Dog Coalition. "When they go in and go even after the kids that's a little bit too much. Even Blue Dogs have some reservations." Democrats also believe that the optics of another government shutdowngranted, a partial onewill favor them, giving them little reason to capitulate on the issue. Recent polling indicates that they're right. Cuellar also pointed to polling after the 2013 government shutdown showing that voters were more inclined to pin the funding lapse on the GOP. "History would tell us that Republicans would get more blame," he said. "It's a replay of the same movie." But even more importantly, Democrats believe that the benefits of the party's messaging on the issuethat they want a clean funding bill to prevent a shutdownfar outweigh the potential pitfalls of standing with Obama on his executive action. "I think there were a lot of different ways to put Democrats on the spot ... on immigration and on the president's immigration policies, and this particular way of doing it is sort of the worst possible messaging," one Senate Democratic aide said. "We're seeing threats from ISIS every day. And I think tying the two togetherI think that was a poor choice." Admittedly, Democratic unity is easier because their numbers have shrunkand many of their most common defectors lost their reelection bids. "You've still got Blue Dogs, but I'd venture to say they're not as conservative as the ones that are not with us anymore," Cuellar said. Cuellar added that many remaining members have taken a lesson from those election results, when vulnerable Democrats who voted with Republicans lost their seats anyway. "Some of the real conservative Blue Dogs that voted with Republicans many timesit didn't matter because Republicans still went after them," Cuellar said. "They didn't get a pass Even if I vote no, the Republicans are still going to come against me and the Hispanic community might be against me. Don't let me piss my base off." Republicans believe that Monday's decision by a Texas judge that stalled the president's executive action will form cracks within the Democratic Conference. But the ruling showed no signs this week of having any effect on Democratic resolve. Sens. Heidi Heitkamp, Angus King, Joe Manchin, and Claire McCaskill, who have all voiced concerns about the president's action, said Tuesday they would continue to stick with their leadership and oppose any DHS funding bill that is not completely clean. The judge's decision, one Senate Democratic leadership aide said, could easily be overturned, giving members little reason to factor it into their votes. "What happened [Monday] is several layers removed away from the central question of was the president's executive order lawful," the aide said. "And it was from a judge who has a very well-known and conservative record on immigration. So in that sense, it's not a significant development in terms of the legal case." Republicans believe Democrats' banding together to protect their president, particularly his controversial executive action, will hurt them in the end. And GOP lawmakers don't necessarily buy the idea that voters will blame the majority if there is a shutdown. "Democrat after Democrat goes to the Senate floor to give speeches about how important the Department of Homeland Security is and yet they don't seem to be struck by the irony that it is Democrats who are preventing the Senate from taking up funding for DHS at a time when global threats are only growing," Sen. Ted Cruz told National Journal last week. " It is both reckless and irresponsible." But showing party unity is a key part of the Democrats' strategy. After holding together on the Keystone Pipeline debate and refusing to vote for cloture before the party's amendments had been duly considered, Democrats are again showing the new majority that they can't be taken for granted. That kind of political stand will help members, including the moderates who oppose Obama's immigration action, to notch legislative victories in the future.

U -- A2 AUMF Thumper

TPA bill ASAP

Mike Masnick, 2-23-15, Tech Dirt, Trade Agreements Should Protect an Open Internet, Not Kill It, https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20150222/17384530109/trade-agreements-should-protect-open-internet-not-kill-it.shtml DOA: 2-25-14

Either way, it is strongly expected that Congress will introduce some sort of Trade Promotion Authority bill in the coming days, even as the key Democrat involved in this issue, Senator Ron Wyden, has pushed back on hearings planned by Senator Orrin Hatch for later this week.No evidence AUMF is before that

Its already priced-in. The recent, 2-24, evidence we have that says TPA will pass in a close vote assumes hes already pushing for AUMFNot even a bill to vote on

Paul Kane, 2-22-15, Washington Post, Congress Split Over Ways to Face Islamic State, http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/congress-is-divided-as-it-prepares-to-debate-war-against-the-islamic-state/2015/02/22/16a57c7e-b922-11e4-aa05-1ce812b3fdd2_story.html DOA: 2-25-15Congress returns to Washington this week after a 10-day break to confront the difficult business of how the United States should wage war against terrorist organizations such as the Islamic State.The formal task is to write and approve an authorization for the use of military force, or AUMF, but the broader goal is to demonstrate to the world that there is unified, bipartisan support for U.S. military engagement against a new, more mystifying enemy than the ones the United States faced when Congress last approved similar resolutions, in 2001 and 2002. So far, the only real agreement is that Congress needs to play a more forceful role in the debate over foreign affairs. The Obama administration has found itself caught in a position of sounding the alarm about potential terrorist attacks as Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson did Sunday, highlighting intelligence suggesting the possibility of attacks on shopping malls but offering a war resolution that includes limits on the scope of battle against the Islamic State. Critics on the right have stepped up their campaign to refashion President Obamas AUMF request to allow for a more expansive attack, even if it includes U.S. troops fighting on the ground. On Sunday, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), one of his partys leading military hawks, said he wants the Republican party to talk openly about the hard things, like having boots on the ground in Syria and Iraq, American boots on the ground in the fight. Theres no doubt in my mind, militarily, that we cannot succeed in our endeavors to degrade and destroy ISIL without having an American component, Graham said on ABCs This Week, using another name for the Islamic State. Critics on the left have worried that Obamas AUMF request lacks specificity and would grant too much authority to the Pentagon to expand the war into other theaters. Even the presidents staunchest national security ally on Capitol Hill, Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), found something to seriously quibble with in the draft. Oh, I think the resolution for three years, a time limit, is not appropriate. We dont want to send a signal to the world that were there for just so many years. Unfortunately, this battle is going to take a long time, Reed, the ranking Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, said in a television interview last week on NBC. The formal work will be conducted in the House Foreign Affairs and Senate Foreign Relations committees, the panels with jurisdiction to authorize military actions overseas. Secretary of State John F. Kerry is scheduled to testify before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on Wednesday, while military legal experts are set to appear before the House Armed Services Committee on Thursday. The Senate panels are trying to put together their AUMF hearing lineups as well. Kerrys testimony is a regularly scheduled appearance to discuss the State Departments annual budget, but it is certain to turn into a forum on the situation in Syria. The AUMF request sent by Obama to Congress is just an opening bid, as is normally the case, so there will be no vote on that particular draft. Influential lawmakers like Reed and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), chairman of the Armed Services Committee will play key advisory roles in the war debate, and ultimately every member of the House and Senate will have a chance to vote on the resolution. That is, if the committees can come to any kind of agreement on the outlines of a resolution. The chance for failure is real, given that in recent years, Congress has stumbled over traditionally bipartisan moves such as long-term funding for farm policy and highway construction and is on the verge of shutting down the Department of Homeland Security over a separate immigration dispute. On Sunday, Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, noted the difficult task ahead and did not guarantee success. Were going to be debating an authorization for the use of military force here soon. This is an important issue. Its important to our homeland security. Its important to the world. And I hope as a nation well take it on in a sober and important way over the next several weeks, Corker said on NBCs Meet the Press. The motivations for drafting and passing an AUMF are different in every corner of Congress. Many Democrats were first elected to Congress in 2006 and 2008 because of strong anti-war sentiment among the electorate following struggles in Iraq, and some view this as a chance to correct the mistakes from the 2002 debate that approved that war. I strongly believe that we must put strict limits on the use of force to ensure that the United States does not get entangled in another endless war in the Middle East, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), who won a House seat in 2006, said in mid-December after voting for an early war resolution. That draft, approved on a party-line vote, placed strict limits on any use of ground troops and strong time limitations on the operation, leading Corker and other Republicans to oppose it. It was never considered on the Senate floorU A2: Budget Thumper

TPA is at the top of the agenda Obamas pushing Needham, The Hill, 1-13-15 (Vicki, Trade tops Ryan's Ways and Means 2015 agenda, http://thehill.com/policy/finance/229313-ryan-makes-trade-a-top-priority, accessed 1-13-15, CMM)New House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan said Tuesday that giving President Obama expanded trade powers would be a top priority this year as the powerful panel seeks an avenue for faster economic growth. The Wisconsin Republican identified trade promotion authority (TPA) as the first issue he would tackle. Under TPA, also known as fast-track authority, Congress gets an up-or-down vote on any trade deal that reaches Capitol Hill. Ryan said TPA would give Congress the power to set negotiation objectives for trade agreements, get the best deal from global partners and hold the Obama administration accountable on trade. Building a healthy economy, that is our mission this year, Ryan said at his first hearing at the helm of the tax-writing committee. Ryan and other Republicans on the panel said that expanding trade will open more markets to U.S. exports and, in turn, boost jobs creation and economic growth. "As we all know, 96 percent of the worlds consumers, they don't live here," Ryan said. "I believe Americans can compete with any country. We just need to give them a chance," Ryan said. "Break down these barriers and American trade along with American jobs will take off." Rep. Sandy Levin (Mich.), the top Democrat on the panel, said a 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is at a "vital juncture" and many important issues have yet to be resolved that will require bipartisan discussions. Levin called the TPP the "most significant negotiation in over 20 years and urged Ryan to work with Democrats on the details of TPP to ensure that Congress is a full partner in shaping the massive agreement, which includes nations from Chile to Japan. The president, who met with House and Senate leaders at the White House on Tuesday, reiterated that there's an opportunity to work together on trade. Negotiators working on the TPP have said they hope to complete the deal early this year. If that happens, it would probably take another six months or so to get the deal ready for votes in the House and Senate. Republicans on both sides of the Capitol have expressed support for granting fast-track power, which boosts the chances of approving any trade deal that reaches Congress. Rep. Charles Boustany Jr. (R-La.) said during the hearing that TPA would give U.S. negotiators the "best leverage to move forward" in the talks and that other nations such as Japan won't put their best offers on the table until Congress can get it passed. Rep. Pat Tiberi (R-Ohio), the new chairman of the panels trade subcommittee who backs quick passage of fast-track, asked witnesses what they consider trade's top benefits. In response, Douglas Holtz-Eakin president of the American Action Forum, said moving forward on fast-track authority now is important because it gives the United States a chance to write global trade rules that will benefit the U.S. economy. He said opening markets will grow jobs and help the labor market return to full employment. It means better income and better jobs, not just more, but peoples jobs will be better as a result, he told the panel. He said the TPP and another major trade pact dubbed the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) have the potential to create more than 1 million U.S. jobs and boost growth by more than $200 billion. But many Democrats have expressed frustration with the secrecy of the negotiations and are concerned that trade deals would hurt American workers. Meanwhile, the Obama administration is stepping up its outreach to the business community and lawmakers in its effort to bolster support for trade. Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker, Small Business Administration head Maria Contreras-Sweet and deputy U.S. Trade Representative Robert Holleyman are sitting down on Tuesday with a wide range of business leaders to discuss how trade policy affects their businesses at a roundtable organized by the White House Business Council and advocacy group Business Forward. Under President Obamas leadership, the U.S. is spearheading the most significant trade agenda in history, Holleyman said.

GOP backlash will be constrained and Obama has leverage on the budget. Montgomery and Mufson, Washington Post, 2-2-15 (Lori and Steven, Obama may have new leverage with his $4 trillion budget request, http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/obama-may-have-new-leverage-with-his-4-trillion-budget-request/2015/02/02/799be914-aaf2-11e4-ad71-7b9eba0f87d6_story.html, accessed 2-2-15, CMM)President Obamas $4 trillion budget request, packed with familiar proposals for new spending and higher taxes, landed Monday on the doorstep of a Republican Congress eager to end an era of political gridlock giving Obama unexpected leverage in coming negotiations. With the economy on the mend and federal deficits falling, Obama on Monday urged lawmakers to move beyond the mindless austerity of the past four years. His budget request seeks fresh investments in education and infrastructure, as well as new tax breaks for a struggling middle class. It also would blow through budget caps set for the Pentagon and domestic agencies, urging an increase of $74 billion next year, or about 7 percent. Those proposals echo the priorities of many Republican lawmakers, who are torn between their pledge to shrink the size of government and their desire to demonstrate an ability to govern. They, too, want to increase defense spending and replenish a trust fund for highways and other infrastructure scheduled to run dry in May. That deadline could force both sides to the negotiating table. Meanwhile, Republican leaders newly in control of both chambers have vowed to avoid another politically damaging government shutdown which means finding common ground with Obama on agency appropriations before the new fiscal year begins Oct. 1.

U A2: Immigration Thumper

No capital being spent on immigration

Ilya Shapiro, 2-24-15, Huffington Post, Shapiro is a senior fellow in constitutional studies at the Cato Institute. He filed a brief supporting the legal challenge to DAPA on behalf of people who support the general thrust of President Obamas immigration policy, http://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/02/24/im-an-immigrant-and-a-reform-advocate-obamas-executive-actions-are-a-disaster-for-the-cause/ DOA: 2-24-15Alas, the current president has never been willing to spend political capital on the cause of immigration reformunlike his predecessor, who came very close to attaining that elusive goal. Given how little trust Obama now inspires, its clear that this challenge now falls to his successor. In the meantime, immigration activists are doing themselves no favors by claiming that an obvious violation of both administrative law and the separation of powers helps those who need real reform.

U A2: Currency

Obama opposes including harsh currency measures PC solvesFT, Financial Times, 2-10-15 (US Congress threatens trade deals with currency debate, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/fd47fde8-b11e-11e4-831b-00144feab7de.html#axzz3S2F37J49, accessed 2-17-15)We have seen this film before. The US Congress is threatening a trade war to punish currency manipulators, those it deems to be boosting their trade balance artificially at the expense of America. Ordinarily, a threat of legislative action like this folds in the face of a presidential veto. In the past this has resembled a good cop-bad cop routine. The White House would point to anger on Capitol Hill in order to persuade the likes of China and Japan to curb manipulation against the dollar. This time, however, the number of Democrats and Republicans pledging their support for legislation looks unusually potent. President Barack Obama rightly insists that dealing with currency devaluation should be separated from matters of trade. He must hold firm both on the Trade Promotion Authority he seeks from Congress that enables him to submit fast track deals to an up-or-down vote as well as the Transpacific Partnership talks that are in their final stages. Both Atlantic and Pacific trade deals are at a crossroads. It would be a setback to global growth prospects if they were sabotaged by politics in the very country that initiated them. However, Mr Obama should take nothing for granted. John Boehner, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, has said he needs at least 50 Democratic votes to pass TPA. Yet 150 of the 188-strong Democratic caucus have already signed a petition opposing it. Unlike on previous rounds, they are joined by a growing number of Republicans who object to anything that increases Mr Obamas authority. Their motives may be different. The left smells a multinational rat that would gnaw at US labour and environmental standards. The right wishes to poke Mr Obama in the eye. Combined, they are an unholy alliance capable of wrecking global trade negotiations. The main problem is that such a measure is unworkable. It would slap duties on imports from countries deemed to be manipulators, this being defined as central bank interventions aimed at providing a currency subsidy. In practice these are hard to prove. One persons devaluation is anothers monetary policy. It could also rebound on the US. Many, including China, objected to the US quantitative easing programmes on precisely such grounds. The US is now complaining about the impact of the European Central Banks QE. Both actions were launched to stimulate demand but also boosted exports. Deciding which are manipulations is not a precise science, as the IMF has made clear. Shunting adjudication to the World Trade Organisation would not alter that objection. The second problem is that it would ruin any chances of a trade deal. The 13-member TPP talks are nearing conclusion. If Congress inserted a currency clause into the final deal it would prompt Japan to abandon the process and possibly others. The same applies to the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership talks, which are at an earlier stage. Germanys record export growth is partly helped by the euros recent depreciation. Any measure that punished the eurozone for its currencys downward drift would only hasten the protectionism US lawmakers say that they are trying to stop. The dollar is currently riding high because US growth outpaces most of its partners. If the recovery has returned fewer middle class jobs than hoped to US shores, it is because of automation, not competitive devaluation. In any case, trade is not the forum with which to address US currency concerns. Mr Obama knows this. So do cooler heads in Congress. Let us hope they prevail.Obamas hardline stance on currency manipulation outside of trade negotiations assuages Dems. Hadar, The Business Times Singapore, 2-18-15 (Leon, former research fellow with the Cato Institute, contributing editor for The American Conservative and a regular contributor to Chronicles and Reason and a regular blogger on the Huffington Post, Ph.D. from the School of International Service (SIS) at American University, Obama faces battle over trade deals, lexis, accessed 2-18-15)But the White House is now facing a new challenge from several leading Democrats who are insisting that they would approve the TPA only if it commits the president to ensure that America's trading partners are not engaged in so-called "currency manipulation". The argument is that foreign governments, including future members of the TPP, pursue a strategy of devaluing their currencies as part of an effort to assist their producers in competing with American exporters. Indeed, several Democratic senators, joined by a few Republicans, have already introduced a bill that would give the US government the power to determine whether other countries are manipulating their currencies, and are demanding that the White House ensure that future trade deals include provisions dealing with currency issues. But President Obama and his aides counter that this isn't a workable idea and that none of its trade partners would agree to such provisions. Instead, the White House is trying to convince undecided Democrats that it will remain committed to the principle of "fair trade". As part of that effort, the Obama administration accused China last week of providing illegal export subsidies to some of its industries, including textiles, apparel and footwear, and announced that it was filing a case against China at the World Trade Organization. Officials hope that if President Obama sounded "tough" with America's trade partners, Congress will agree to empower him to negotiate new deals with them.

IL TPA Key to Other Trade Agreements

Earl Baker, 2-24-15, Philadelphia Inquirer, Keep free trade on the fast track?, http://www.philly.com/philly/opinion/inquirer/20150224_Keep_free_trade_on_the_fast_track_.html DOA: 2-25-15What is needed to push these trade agreements over the finish line? First and foremost is Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), which has been in place for every president between Franklin Roosevelt and George W. Bush. This "fast track" power is bestowed by Congress on the president, allowing him to effectively fight for U.S. interests in negotiations, and then get a simple "up or down" vote in Congress. Without TPA, most trade deals would get bogged down in endless congressional wrangling. In his State of the Union address, President Obama rightly called on Congress to pass TPA legislation as soon as possible. The need is urgent: the European and Asia-Pacific trade agreements currently being negotiated are at critical moments. The United States needs to lead, and we need to give our president the trade powers to do so. We often hear the public express the desire for the parties, and the executive branch and Congress, to cooperate in our national interest. Here is a chance to do just that.

Lack of TPA is the stumbling block to TPP

Journal of Commerce, 2-23-15, http://www.joc.com/regulation-policy/trade-agreements/international-trade-agreements/tpp-hinges-obama-getting-trade-promotion-authority-trade-officials-say_20150223.html DOA: 2-24-15The completion of a long-awaited Pacific trade deal may still be a ways off, international officials say, so long as U.S. legislators continue to delay key trade legislation that would make the deal possible. Chief negotiators from nations on both sides of the Pacific are set to meet the second week of March in Hawaii to hash out details on the proposed free trade agreement that now includes 11 countries and roughly one-third of global trade. Australias trade minister has said he hopes to see to an agreement by mid-March and officials in Mexico have said their amenable to the timeline. But Japans Economy Minister Akira Amari said last week that reaching an agreement was becoming difficult as nations wait for the U.S. to pass key trade legislation, according to Reuters. The major stumbling block stateside has been a debate over trade promotion authority, a negotiating fast track that would streamline trade talks: giving Congress a simple yes-or-no vote on trade deals, while vesting the primary negotiating powers in the hands of the president.TPA passage catalyzes quick TPP ratification Behsudi, Politico, 1-30-15 (Adam, Asia trade talks heat up as fast-track battle rages, http://www.politico.com/story/2015/01/asia-trade-talks-114782.html, accessed 2-4-15, CMM)Talks have accelerated on what would be the biggest trade deal in world history thanks to a Republican Congress that wants to give President Barack Obama more power to negotiate the agreement and a group of Asian nations that are closer than ever to making concessions on consumer goods sold around the globe. Here at the Asia-Pacific trade talks, a mad scramble is underway among pharmaceutical giants, major clothing companies and big agricultural groups who are trying to influence the outcome of the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations, a proposed agreement stretching from Chile to Japan that would encompass 40 percent of global gross domestic product and about a third of world trade. Theres a real air of seriousness about concluding these talks and getting to the finish line, and everything I saw here this week reaffirms that the U.S. government is firmly committed to trying to get this done in the 30 to 60 days or whatever the time period is, said Augustine Tantillo, president of the National Council of Textile Organizations, which lobbies on behalf of the U.S. textile industry. Tantillo and other lobbyists and interest groups were busy meeting with officials from Vietnam, New Zealand and the 10 other countries in the talks, which are taking place at the Sheraton New York Times Square Hotel. Trade officials could be spotted holding court at large circular tables as lobbyists and advocates pitched their positions on everything from apparel rules to access to medicines. Dozens of lobbyists and industry group leaders descended on the hotel this week to roam the halls in an attempt to push negotiators toward their positions on controversial areas like drug patents and agricultural protections, which are still unresolved after nearly five years of negotiations. At the same time, trade officials are taking notice of the new atmosphere in Washington. Obama is, for the first time, publicly calling for trade promotion authority legislation that will ease the passage of the agreement in Congress. This is throwing talks into a higher gear as we enter the home stretch, said Trevor Kincaid, a spokesman for the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. While Congress and the administration are preparing for the end game, so are the teams. We are making good progress in a number of areas and teams are checking remaining issues off the list, Kincaid added. Pressure to complete a deal is growing. At some point next month, lawmakers are preparing to introduce the trade promotion bill, which has been buoyed by the GOP takeover of Congress last November that put Senate Republicans only a handful of votes away from a filibuster-proof majority of support for trade and widened the margin of trade-friendly Republicans in the House. The fast-track bill, as the legislation is also known, would expedite the passage of the Asia-Pacific deal in Congress by putting it to an up-or-down vote, limiting debate and preventing lawmakers from offering amendments to the agreement. Its passage is expected to give countries in the deal, which have a combined GDP more than two-thirds greater than that of the NAFTA nations, more confidence to negotiate without fear of Congress picking the agreement apart and reversing hard-won gains or concessions a magical ingredient that will catalyze the talks, moving them into the endgame. Weve seen a great level of optimism by the United States since the midterm elections, and U.S. industry stakeholders have been promoting a highly positive spin about TPA, said Yves Leduc, director of international trade for the Dairy Farmers of Canada. I think there is recognition that 2015 is the window in which they are working, he said. With the legislation imminent, the uncertain deadlines that have plagued the talks are giving way to a more concrete timeline for getting a deal done in the coming months. Trade ministers could meet as soon as March, when they would try to reach an agreement in principle representing what a final deal will look like, sources close to the negotiations said here this week. The shortened timeline is forcing action at the negotiating table, prompting the country officials and interest groups to tip their hands on their true bottom lines. Whatever the negotiators decide to include in the trade deal could have a ripple effect on entire industries, with the potential to offshore more U.S. textile jobs and impact the financial feasibility of drug research and development, to name two possibilities.

TPP will pass negotiations are wrapping upDonnan, Financial Times World Trade Editor, 2-2-15 (Shawn, US trade chief Mike Froman sees prize within reach, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/cb067d52-a893-11e4-ad01-00144feab7de.html#axzz3QeELUp75, accessed 2-2-15, CMM)If all goes to plan in the coming months, Mike Froman, US trade representative, is set to land arguably the biggest prize in the countrys recent economic history. The 12-country Trans-Pacific Partnership, now nearing conclusion almost seven years after the US joined negotiations, is daunting in size and scope and dwarfs the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico that went into effect two decades ago. Some 40 per cent of global output will be covered by the TPP, including two of the top three economies in the world (the US and Japan). It will significantly lower tariffs and other trade barriers around the Pacific Rim on everything from rice and steaks to cars and chemicals. It will contain enforceable standards on labour and the environment. It will set new benchmarks by delineating rules for state-owned enterprises in the developing world and the digital economy. It will leave rivals in Beijing and Brussels salivating. Yet the TPP is also already being derided by many inside President Barack Obamas Democratic party and by the unions it has long relied on for its base. At a time when Mr Obama is putting a new middle class economics and the fight against inequality at the centre of his agenda, his push for new trade agreements causes many on his side of politics to squirm. Such are the politics of trade in the US. The consensus among many Democrats with regard to trade agreements and globalisation is that they have not been kind to the middle class, having contributed to high-paying manufacturing jobs being shipped offshore and wages stagnating. Economists such as Joseph Stiglitz and Paul Krugman have raised doubts about the TPP. Even as she has made friendly noises on trade, Nancy Pelosi, the powerful Democratic leader in the House of Representatives, has been blunt about the administrations challenge. The burden is on [the White House] to demonstrate that this is good for American pay cheques, she said last week. But, sitting before the brick hearth in his office, spitting distance from the White House, Mr Froman is resolute. Were doing this to protect American jobs and American workers, he tells the Financial Times in an interview. The TPP is, he argues, a way to open up more markets for US goods and services in fast-growing Asia and to create high-paying jobs at home. It is also a way to level the playing field for American workers by including stronger labour and environmental standards that will be enforceable via trade sanctions. And, with both Canada and Mexico included, to deliver on President Obamas long-ago campaign promise to renegotiate Nafta, something the progressive wing of the Democratic party has long sought. There are a lot of people who raise very legitimate concerns about the impact of globalisation on patterns of production, on jobs, on wages. But I think its also important not to conflate globalisation with trade agreements, Mr Froman says. Globalisation is a force. It exists. The question is whether we can use trade agreements to shape it, or whether we want to just sit and be shaped by it. The US, he argues, needs to be at the forefront of setting the global rules of commerce. Countries like China are engaged in their own rival bids to create regional blocs that exclude the US and do not include the sort of rules the US is pursuing on labour, intellectual property or the internet. Ceding ground to such rivals has got to be worse for American workers and the American middle class than even the status quo. Negotiators from the US, Japan and the 10 other countries in the TPP are now involved in almost constant discussions. Chief negotiators meeting in New York last week continued to make progress on important issues. Teams from the US and Japan will be in Washington again this week working on their own bilateral deal focused on agricultural and auto products. Obstacles clearly remain and negotiations remain tough. But a TPP deal is a small number of months away, Mr Froman forecast during a Senate hearing last week. The US has told its partners within the TPP that it wants to complete negotiations before the summer so that an agreement can be put to Congress by the end of 2015 and before the 2016 presidential campaign heats up. Amid pitched partisan battles on other issues, importantly the new Republican leadership in Congress says it wants to give Mr Obama the fast-track authority he needs to close the TPP and, eventually, a parallel negotiation with the EU. Business groups, Republicans and the administration all believe a healthy majority in Congress will back a vote on what is formally called Trade Promotion Authority. Asked whether he expects such a vote to succeed, Mr Froman answers simply with a confident Yes. The consensus in Washington is that Congress is likely to vote on fast-track authority within two-three months and that a TPP deal will be closed shortly thereafter. Mike Fromans big moment the USs big trade moment may well be not very far away.

IL PC KeyObamas personal involvement is key to TPA empirics proveKennedy, leads George Washington University's Graduate School of Political Management and Chairman of the Economic Club of Minnesota, 1-14-15 (Mark, served three terms in the U.S. House of Representatives and was Senior Vice President and Treasurer of Federated Department Stores, Is a Major Trade Deal the Way for Obama to Secure His Legacy?, https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/01/14/is-a-major-trade-deal-the-way-for-obama-to-secure-his-legacy/, accessed 1-15-15, CMM)Last month President Barack Obama addressed his plans for expanding trade before a group of corporate leaders, complaining, Theres a narrative there that makes for some tough politics. While businesses must constantly make the case for how trade benefits Americas middle class, the pivotal voice will be President Obamas. It is imperative that he extols the benefits of his trade initiatives in next weeks State of the Union address (SOTU). The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in Asia and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) with the European Union are central to the presidents plan to strengthen the United States ties with each region and to propel economic growth in America and globally. Trade momentum could also drive completion of the World Trade Organizations (WTO) Doha Round. Our negotiating partners are not going to put their final offer on the table unless they know the president can complete the deal. This requires passing Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), also called Fast Track, to allow the president to submit trade bills for an up or down vote without amendments that could kill the deal. Trade is one of the most likely areas where the president and congressional Republicans can work together. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) said in regards to TPA that he wants to get it done, get it done right, and get it done soon. Yet history shows that a president cannot outsource the job of promoting trade to a supportive committee chairman or his capable U.S. trade representative. President Obama must personally actively engage on the issue in order to have any chance for success. This is trades hour. It is Obamas best chance to act in tandem with Congress. Trade can provide the economic boost necessary to offset the economic headwinds we still face. In last years SOTU address, President Obama devoted a paragraph to trade that was more descriptive than persuasive. The president should devote more than a paragraph to trade in this years SOTU and he needs to be very persuasive. If he takes the initiative, President Obama can join a long list of Democratic presidents that have spent political capital to support advances in trade. Grover Cleveland called on Congress in 1885 to reduce high protective tariffs. Told that he had given Republicans an effective issue for the campaign of 1888, he retorted, What is the use of being elected or re-elected unless you stand for something? He did lose in 1888, but came back four years later. Woodrow Wilson called a special session in 1913, addressing Congress personally for the first time since President John Adams, to consider tariff reform. The Underwood-Simmons Act achieved the most significant reductions in rates since the Civil War. Franklin D. Roosevelt secured passage of the predecessor of TPA in 1934 and concluded 19 trade agreements. Harry Truman led the effort to launch the General Agreement on Trade (GATT) in 1947, the predecessor of todays WTO, fighting opposition by a Republican Congress. He approved the first three rounds of global trade agreements under GATT, substantially reducing trade barriers. John F. Kennedy in 1962, asserting, Economic isolation and political leadership are wholly incompatible approved the GATT Dillon Round that President Jimmy Carter described as one of the most highly publicized and well-known achievements of the Kennedy administration. The GATTs subsequent Kennedy Round was named in his honor. Lyndon Johnson affirmed during his 1964 inaugural address, For our ultimate goal is a world in which all men, goods, and ideas can freely move across every border and every boundary. We must expand world trade. We are willing to give our trading partners competitive access to our market, asking only that they do the same for us. The GATTs Kennedy Round was approved during his administration. Jimmy Carter signed in 1979 the agreement implementing the GATT Tokyo Round that he described as perhaps the most important and far-reaching piece of trade legislation in the history of the United States. Bill Clinton signed the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1993. He made it a make-or-break issue for his presidency and rounded up former presidents, secretaries of state and even former chairmen of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to support the agreement. The GATT Uruguay Round of global trade negotiations was approved during his tenure and the GATT was reenergized as the WTO. The Obama administration has passed three bi-lateral trade agreements that were negotiated by the administration of President George W. Bush. Completing TPA, TPP, TTIP, and the Doha Round (or some combination of them) would give Obama major trade accomplishments that he could truly own. Unless he wants to stand out as the only Democratic president in modern times not to break down trade barriers, President Obama needs to step forward to make clear how trade spurs economic growth, expands jobs, and raises the incomes of the middle class.

PC is key to TPAInside U.S. Trade, 8-2-13 (Obama Asks For Fast-Track Authority, Froman Defers To Congress On Bill, lexis, accessed 9-9-13, CMM)A Senate Republican aide largely endorsed Froman's vision of having Congress take the lead on drafting a TPA bill, while arguing that the administration needs to expend political capital to deliver Democratic votes. According to the aide, Senate Democrats have to provide a certain number of votes for such a bill and that requires the administration to weigh in. "Regardless of [Republicans'] persuasive ability, I don't know that we're going to be able to bring those folks on board," he said. Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Orrin Hatch (R-UT) made the same argument in a July 30 speech at a trade event hosted by the American Enterprise Institute. He said his efforts to renew TPA in 2011 failed largely due to a lack of Democratic support. "To me, that shows that the administration must actively engage within the Democratic caucus if we have any chance of seeing TPA succeed," he said. Without the president's "active engagement and support," a fast-track bill cannot succeed, he said.

Impact Open InternetTPA protects the open Internet

Ambassador Daniel A. Sepulveda, 2-11-15Deputy Assistant Secretaryand U.S. Coordinator for International Communications and Information Policy,Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Association of American Chambers of Commerce in Latin America, Trade Promotion and the Fight to Preserve the Open Internet http://www.state.gov/e/eb/rls/rm/2015/237436.htm DOA: 2-24-15

Three billion people are connected to the Internet today. And trillions of devices are set to join them in the Internet of Things. Together, the connectivity of people and machines is enabling economic and social development around the world on a revolutionary scale.But it will take open markets, the cooperation of leaders around the world, the participation of a vibrant and diverse range of stakeholders, and strong trade agreements, with language preserving the free flow of information, to protect the Internets potential as the worlds engine for future growth, both at home and abroad.As the number of Internet users worldwide has ballooned from 2 to 3 billion, the increase in Internet use creates significant economic potential. The Obama Administration is working to unlock the promise of e-commerce, keep the Internet free and open, promote competitive access for telecommunications suppliers, and set digital trade rules-of-the-road by negotiating new trade agreements. Trade Promotion Authority legislation and the pending trade agreements we expect Congress to consider over the coming months and years will provide that kind of protection. These agreements aim to ensure that the free flow of information and data are the default setting for nations. This will preserve the architecture that has empowered the Internet and global communications to fuel economic growth at home and abroad. It is in our interest, across parties and ideology, to ensure we move forward and approve TPA and the pending agreements for many reasons, but promoting the preservation and growth of global communications and the open Internet is one of the strongest. vSenator Ron Wyden, the ranking member on the Senate Finance Committee, has made the argument well, stating, "Americas trade negotiating objectives must reflect the fact that the Internet represents the shipping lane for 21st Century goods and services Trade in digital goods and services is growing and driving economic growth and job creation all around the country. U.S digital exports are beating imports by large margins, but outdated trade rules threaten this growth by providing opportunities for protectionist policies overseas. The U.S. has the opportunity to establish new trade rules that preserve the Internet as a platform to share ideas and for expanding commerce..." Senator Wyden is absolutely correct. Our pending agreements with nations in the Pacific community will establish rules for the preservation of those virtual shipping lanes as enablers of the transport of services and ideas, allowing startups and the voices of everyday people to challenge incumbent power in markets and ideas. If we are successful, the partnership of nations across the Trans-Pacific Partnership and Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership regions coming behind agreements to preserve the free flow of information will serve as a powerful counterweight to authoritarian governments around the globe that have demonstrated a clear willingness to interfere with open markets and an open Internet. And make no mistake about it, if we do not seize every opportunity at our disposal to win commitments to an open, global Internet, we risk letting others set the rules of the road.Authoritarian regimes view the Internets openness as a threatening and destabilizing influence. The Russian government, just last month, pressured social media companies to block access to pages used to organize peaceful political protests. In China, authorities have blocked Gmail and Googles search engine. In addition to ongoing and systematic efforts to control content and punish Chinese citizens who run afoul of political sensitivities, such measures are an effort to further diminish the Chinese peoples access to information, while effectively favoring Chinese Internet companies by blocking other providers from accessing its market. And we know they are urging others to take similar action. These trade barriers harm commerce and slow economic growth, and they produce socially oppressive policies that inhibit freedom.vThe rules of the road for commerce, and Internet-enabled trade and e-commerce, are up for grabs in Asia. Were working harder than ever to bring home trade agreements that will unlock opportunities by eliminating barriers to U.S. exports, trade, and investment while raising labor, environment, and other important standards across the board. Right now, China and others are negotiating their own trade agreements and seeking to influence the rules of commerce in the region and beyond. These trade agreements fail to meet the high standards that we strive for in our free trade agreements, including protection for workers rights and the environment. And they dont protect intellectual property rights or maintain a free and open Internet. This will put our workers and our businesses at a disadvantage. We know that both old and new American businesses, small and large alike, are dependent on the global Internet as the enabler of access to previously unreachable consumers. In the U.S. alone, American Internet companies and their global community of users contribute over $141 billion in annual revenue to the overall U.S. GDP, simultaneously employing 6.6 million people. And the Internet is not simply about the World Wide Web, it is the communications platform for managing global supply chains, distributing services, and acquiring the market information necessary to succeed anywhere. Many countries no longer primarily produce products. Rather, businesses produce product components and provide services, many of which are delivered digitally. In order to remain competitive globally and promote the capacity of businesses to innovate, the United States and our partners in the Western Hemisphere must build the Americas into a shared, digitally connected, integrated platform for global success. By working with our trade partners in Latin America and Asia to conclude the Trans-Pacific Partnership we are advancing this vision and making it a reality. We will set the standards with twenty-first century trade agreements. We know that not everyone is convinced of the merits of open markets. And to win their hearts and minds, we have to demonstrate and communicate how these two values open markets and the open Internet - are interconnected. And we have to show that Trade Promotion Authority and our agreements embrace the values that underpin the Internet today. As Ambassador Froman has said, Trade, done right, is part of the solution, not part of the problem. And, because it is true, our progressive friends should recognize that the fight for open markets is the position most consistent with our progressive tradition and values.It was Woodrow Wilson who said, The program of the world's peace, therefore, is our program; and that program, the only possible program, as we see it, is this and he listed his fourteen points. Among them was number three: The removal, so far as possible, of all economic barriers and the establishment of an equality of trade conditions among all the nations consenting to the peace and associating themselves for its maintenance.It was Franklin Roosevelt who asked the New Deal Congress for the first grant of trade negotiating authority.In his remarks at the signing of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, it was JFK who said, Increased economic activity resulting from increased trade will provide more job opportunities for our workers. Our industry, our agriculture, our mining will benefit from increased export opportunities as other nations agree to lower their tariffs. Increased exports and imports will benefit our ports, steamship lines, and airlines as they handle an increased amount of trade. Lowering of our tariffs will provide an increased flow of goods for our American consumers. Our industries will be stimulated by increased export opportunities and by freer competition with the industries of other nations for an even greater effort to develop an efficient, economic, and productive system. The results can bring a dynamic new era of growth.And it is consistent with the sentiments of these giants in our tradition, our progressive tradition, that President Obama most recently stated, Twenty-first century businesses, including small businesses, need to sell more American products overseas. Today, our businesses export more than ever, and exporters tend to pay their workers higher wages. But as we speak, China wants to write the rules for the worlds fastest-growing region. That would put our workers and our businesses at a disadvantage. Why would we let that happen? We should write those rules. We should level the playing field. Thats why Im asking both parties to give me trade promotion authority to protect American workers, with strong new trade deals from Asia to Europe that arent just free, but are also fair. Its the right thing to do.Friends, we have both a political and economic interest in promoting open markets and an open Internet. Preservation of these ideals is and should remain a bipartisan, and broadly held goal. It is critical to our future and contained within the language we are asking Congress to approve.

Impact Russia

TPA is key to deter Russia and China Brown, dean of the Elliott School of International Affairs at the George Washington University, and Oudraat, president of Women In International Security, 2-6-15 (Michael