february 23, 2006karen herter, lbl/cec/ucb-erg 1 /29 temperature effects on residential electric...

February 23, 2006 Karen Herter, LBL/CEC/UCB-ERG 1/29

Temperature Effects on Residential Electric Price Response

Karen Herter

February 23, 2006


Overview

Questions to Answer Do critical peak pricing (CPP) tariffs reduce peak

demand? How does local climate affect residential customer

response to CPP events?

Motivation – why CPP? Economics: better link wholesale and retail markets Reliability: respond to local or system emergencies Customer service: the California Statewide Pricing Pilot

(SPP) participants liked the experimental CPP rates


Economics: California Power Costs, 2000

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

$/M

Wh

PX Price

Flat Residential Rate

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Avg.


Reliability: still working on response time & technology issues


Customer Service: SPP Post-pilot Survey (N=196)

Why?

Save money 58%

Control/save energy 17%

I like it 12%

Why Not?

Need more time to decide 58%

Too much hassle 22%

23%

77%New Rate

Old Rate

25%

62%

Should it be offered to other customers?

Definitely

Probably

13%Definitely/ probably not

Why?

Save energy 19%

Save money 17%

It’s good/we like it 15%

Conservation awareness 13%

Chance to participate 12%

Control/manage energy use 5%

Would you stay on the new rate?

Source: Momentum 2004

(only about 50% actually did stay on the CPP rate once the pilot participation incentive was removed)


I. Background


CA Statewide Pricing Pilot, 2003-2004

Cooperative effort CEC, CPUC joint proceeding PG&E, SCE and SDG&E joint pilot

Pilot design ~2000 residential customers 3 new revenue-neutral rates 15-minute load data

Data stratification By climate zone (4) By building/usage type (3) Bayesian sampling

determined sample sizes for each of 12 strata


Experimental CPP Tariff(approximate average values)

$

0 14 19 24

Hour of the day

$0.10$0.20

$0.60 critical peak price

peak price

off-peak price


CA System Loads as a function of Temperature

25

30

35

40

45

50

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

Daily Statewide Maximum Temperature (population weighted)

Da

ily P

ea

k L

oa

d (

GW

)


Two Groups Considered in this Analysis

Manual Group CPP rate Information on how to respond

PCT Group CPP rate Information on how to respond Programmable communicating thermostat (PCT)

programmed to automatically respond to CPP signals


II. Manual Response

(no automated controls)


Data Analysis for Manual Group

Divide hourly data (24-hour load shapes) 5°F peak temperature bins Normal/critical days

Average daily load shapes across days, by customer 2 load shapes per customer - one normal and one critical

Average customer load shapes across customers, by stratum 2 load shapes per stratum - one normal and one critical

Average stratum load shapes across strata, weighted by population and sample share 2 final load shapes - one normal and one critical - representing

the average response of SPP participants exposed to the given temperature and weighted to reflect the CA population


For those who had coffee this morning…

Responseij = (Hourly Usage on Critical Days) - (Hourly Usage on Normal Days) =


Manual Response, by 5°F Temperature Bin

-0.35

-0.30

-0.25

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

50

-54

.9

55

-59

.9

60

-64

.9

65

-69

.9

70

-74

.9

75

-79

.9

80

-84

.9

85

-89

.9

90

-94

.9

95

-99

.9

10

0-1

04

.9

Maximum Daily Temperature (°F)

Pea

k D

eman

d C

hang

e (k

Wh/

hour

)

ColdMildHot


Hot: 95-104.9°F

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

Hour Ending Consumption Period

Ave

rag

e H

ou

seh

old

De

ma

nd

(k

Wh

/ho

ur)

Normal

Critical

Peak/Event Period

N=639

Manual Group: Diurnal Load Shapes, 95-105°F (Hot)

Average Response = -13%


Mild: 60-94.9°F

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24


Ave

rag

e H

ou

seh

old

De

ma

nd

(k

Wh

/ho

ur)

Normal

Critical

Peak/Event Period

N=2149

Manual Group: Diurnal Load Shapes, 60-95°F (Mild)



Cold: 50.0-59.9°F

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24


Ave

rag

e H

ou

seh

old

De

ma

nd

(k

Wh

/ho

ur)

Normal

Critical

Peak/Event Period

N=638

Manual Group: Diurnal Load Shapes, 50-60°F (Cold)



Manual Response as a Fraction of Normal Load

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24


Ave

rag

e R

esp

on

se (

%)

50-59.9°F 60-94.9 °F 95-104.9 °F

Peak/Event Period


III. Response with PCTs

(Programmable Communicating Thermostats)


Data Analysis for PCT Group

Divide hourly data (24-hour load shapes) 5°F peak temperature bins Normal/critical days

Average load shapes across days for each customer

Average load shapes across customers PCT sample not stratified


PCT Response, by 5°F Temperature Bin

-1.2

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

70.0-74.9 75.0-79.9 80.0-84.9 85.0-89.9 90.0-94.9

Maximum Temperature (°F)

Pea

k D

eman

d C

hang

e (k

Wh/

hour

)

PCT 5-hr events

PCT 2-hr events


5-hour PCT Response, 90-95°F

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24


Ave

rag

e E

lect

rica

l Lo

ad

(kW

h/h

) p

er

Cu

sto

me

r

Normal

Critical

Peak/Event Period

N=90 Average Response = -25%



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-14

-13

-12

-11

-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 C1

C2

+1

+2

+3

+4

+5

+6


Ave

rag

e H

ou

seh

old

De

ma

nd

(k

Wh

/ho

ur)

Normal

Critical

Peak/Event Period

N=75




PCT Group, 2-hour Critical Period, 80-84.9°F

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-14

-13

-12

-11

-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 C1

C2

+1

+2

+3

+4

+5

+6


Ave

rag

e E

lect

rica

l Lo

ad

(kW

h/h

)p

er

Cu

sto

me

r

Normal

Critical

Peak/Event Period

N=227 Average Response = -16%


Average Normal Load Shapes:Manual and PCT Groups, 70-95°F

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24


Ave

rag

e E

lect

rica

l Lo

ad

(kW

h/h

) p

er

Cu

sto

me

r

Manual

PCT

Peak/Event Period

N=126

N=122


Manual vs. PCT Response, by 5°F Temperature Bin Comparison Between Manual and PCT Groups

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

70.0-74.9 75.0-79.9 80.0-84.9 85.0-89.9 90.0-94.9

Maximum Peak Temperature

Res

pons

e (k

Wh/

h)

PCT

Manual


California System Response Potential under Mandatory CPP: Recent ISO Emergencies

A.Date

B.Peak Load

C.Temperature

Exposure

D.All ManualResponse

E.Manual and PCT

Response

Res.(GW)

System(GW)

>90°F(%)

>95°F(%)

Res.(%)

Res.(GW)

System (%)

Res.(%)

Res.(GW)

System(%)

7/10/02 14.0 40.8 54 54 -9 -1.3 -3 -16 -1.5 -4

7/22/05 13.8 43.1 66 56 -9 -1.3 -3 -19 -1.6 -4

7/21/05 13.7 43.1 56 56 -9 -1.2 -3 -17 -1.5 -3

7/9/02 13.3 40.7 66 43 -8 -1.0 -3 -19 -1.4 -3

5/28/03 11.6 38.4 54 38 -7 -0.9 -2 -16 -1.1 -3

3/29/04 7.4 31.8 56 0 -4 -0.3 -1 -17 -0.5 -2


Conclusions

In hot weather, households on CPP tariffs alone (without technology) reduced peak load by 13% over a 5-hour critical event period

In hot weather, households on CPP tariffs coupled with programmable communicating thermostats reduced peak load by 25% over a 5-hour critical event period and 41% over a 2-hour critical peak period

Comparable groups with and without PCTs responded similarly in mild weather, but PCT customers outperformed manual customers in hot weather

Assuming similar response by all California customers, residential CPP tariffs could have reduced system load by 1-4% during recent California ISO events


The End

Full report available at:

http://www-library.lbl.gov/docs/LBNL/589/56/PDF/LBNL-58956.pdf

(or just search the LBL library for LBNL-58956)

february 23, 2006karen herter, lbl/cec/ucb-erg 1 /29 temperature effects on residential electric...

Documents

cpp signals slide

background slide

hour load shapes

final load shapes

function of temperature

cpp events

residential customer

pct group cpp rate information