february 2015 - wordpress.com · 1.147m 973k-205k 2.001m long term average december 2012 december...
TRANSCRIPT
FEBRUARY 2015
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80
85
90
95
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers
Consumer Optimism Hits 11-Year High
1.147M973K
-205K
2.001M
Long Term Average December 2012 December 2013 December 2014
December 2013
HOUSEHOLD FORMATIONS
NAR
$83 $990
$4,800
$9,000
$18,000
Initial Month 1 Year 5 Years 10 Years 30 Years
Savings on Reduced FHA Mortgage Insurance PremiumsBased on a mortgage of $200,000
“NAR Research estimates that the fee reduction will price in an additional 1.6 million to 2.1 million renters along with many trade-up buyers, resulting in 90,000 to 140,000 additional annual home purchases based on the standard affordability limits at the FHA and conventional market and dynamicsin the housing finance market.”
April2013
May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan2014
Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Mortgage Credit Availability
31%
47%58%
Age 18-24 Age 25-34 Age 35-44
Renters Planning on Buying a Home
Freddie Mac
in the next 3 years by age group
Renters’ Views on Homeownership
Freddie Mac
86%
Homeownership provides protection
against rent increases
80%
Homeownership is an investment opportunity that
builds long-term wealth
77%
Homeownership provides stability and/or
financial security
financial aspects
It is something to be proud of 91%
It can be passed on to your children 90%
It allows more flexibility to design it the way you want 89%
It gives you more privacy 86%
It gives you more independence and control 81%
It provides a better home life for children 76%
It is a sign of success 76%
It makes you feel more like part of a community 74%
It allows you to live in a better, safer neighborhood 60%
Freddie Mac
Renters’ Views on Homeownershipnon-financial aspects
#1 Reasons Renters Won’t Buy
Freddie Mac
44%
62% 58%
Age 18-24 Age 25-34 Age 35-44
Impact on “Willingness to Pay”
5%
40%
A 2% Change in Mortgage Rate Change in Down Payment
The impact on a renter’s “willingness to pay” when buying a house.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
The DOWN PAYMENT Biggest Misconception about Mortgages
39%38%
42%
All Respondents 25-29 Year Olds 30-34 Year Olds
Percentage of respondents to Zelman & Assocsurvey who believe that you need a minimum of a 15% down payment to purchase a home.
Freddie Mac
“It’s not that Millennials and other potential homebuyers aren’t qualified in terms of
their credit scores or in how much they have saved for
their down payment.It’s that they think they’re not qualified or they think that they don’t have a big enough down payment.”
Housing Wire commenting on a study by Nomura
Julián Castro, Secretary for HUD
“A home is often a primary source of wealth in a family…Having a home is generational way to pass that wealth on. We want people responsible enough to own a home to have that opportunity.”
A Second CHALLENGE
Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist
“The total inventory of homes available for sale fell for the first time in 16 months…Months supply is already low at 4.4 months.More inventories are needed, not less. Or else, home prices could re-accelerate.”
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec% -24% -20.8 -16.8 -14% -13% -7.6% -5% -6.2% 1.8% 0.9% 5.0% 1.6% 7.3% 5.3% 3.2% 6.5% 6% 5.5% 5.8% 4.5% 6% 5.2% 5% -0.50
NAR 1/2015
Year-over-Year Inventory Levels
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Historically, number of years home sellers lived in their homes
Pent Up Seller Demand
Pent Up Seller Demand
Equity Share by State Q3 2014
July 2013 August September October November December January2014
February March Apr il May June July August September October November December
Foot Traffic (indicator of future sales)
December 2013 December 2014
Foot Traffic (indicator of future sales)
5.75.5 5.5 5.5 5.5
5.35.1 5.1
4.4
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 1/2015
Q: When do most listingscome on the market?
A: The 2nd Quarter of each Year
1.88 1.901.96
2.23 2.25 2.292.35
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
2014 Available Inventoryin millions
-4.4%
8.9%
16% 15.7%
10.4%
5.2%
$0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+% -4.4% 8.9% 16.0% 15.7% 10.4% 5.2%
% Change in Sales from last year
by Price Range
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
5,500,000
Jan2012
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2013
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2014
Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
NAR 1/2015
EXISTING Home Sales
90
95
100
105
110
Jan Feb MarApr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul AugSep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul AugSep Oct Nov Dec
100 = Historically Healthy Level
NAR 1/2015
PENDING Home Sales
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4
4.2
4.4
4.6
Freddie Mac 1/2015
Freddie Mac Actual Rates
January 2013 – February 2015
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages
Quarter Fannie Mae
Freddie Mac MBA NAR Average
of all four
2015 1Q 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.8% 3.88%
2015 2Q 4.0% 4.1% 4.3% 4.0% 4.10%
2015 3Q 4.1% 4.3% 4.7% 4.3% 4.35%
2015 4Q 4.2% 4.5% 4.8% 4.7% 4.55%
Mortgage Rate Projections
1/2015
3.9
4.1
4.3
4.5
Where Are They Going? 2015 Projections
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Where Have They Been This Year?
Mortgage RatesFreddie Mac 30 Year Fixed Rate
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 1/2015
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Jan'13
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'14
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 1/2015
4.6
4.95.0
5.2
5.7
5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5
5.3
5.1 5.1
4.4
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 1/2015
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
June 2012 January 2013 January 2014 November
S&P Case Shiller 1/2015
Year-Over-Year
PRICECHANGES
Case Shiller
13.2% 12.9%12.4%
10.8%
9.3%
8.1%
6.7%
5.6%4.8% 4.5% 4.3%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
S&P Case Shiller 1/2015
Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGESCase Shiller
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Case Shiller 1/2015
Jan2012
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2013
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2014
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Percentage of Distressed Property
Sales
35%
11%14%
NAR 1/2015
January 2012 - Today
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Slide Slide Title Link
4 Consumer Optimism http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/tables.html
5 Household Formations https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_household_formation
6 FHA Savings http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2015/01/08/fha-lowers-pricing-to-reflect-less-risk/
7 NAR Quote http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2015/01/08/fha-lowers-pricing-to-reflect-less-risk/
8 Mortgage Credit Availability http://www.mba.org/ResearchandForecasts/MCAI.htm
9-12
Renters Planning on Buying, Views on Homeownership (financial & non financial), #1 Reason Won’t Buy
http://www.freddiemac.com/multifamily/pdf/mf_renter_profile.pdf
13 Impact on ‘Willingness To Pay’ http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr702.pdf
14 Down Payment Misconception http://www.freddiemac.com/news/blog/christina_boyle/20140616_mortgage_down_payments.html
15 Housing Wire Quote http://www.housingwire.com/blogs/1-rewired/post/30441-nomura-fear-is-keeping-demand-pent-up
16, 54 Julián Castro Quote http://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/HUD?src=/press/speeches_remarks_statements/2015/Statement_011315
18 Lawrence Yun Quote http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2015/01/26/shrinking-inventory/#sf7126105
19 Year-over-Year Inventory www.realtor.org
Resources
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Slide Slide Title Link
20 Pent Up Seller Demand http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2015/01/28/pent-up-sellers/#sf7158951
21 Equity Share by State http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/equity-report.aspx
22-23, 24 Foot Traffic, Months Inventory www.realtor.org
25-26 Listings Come to Market 2014 http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2015/01/14/ehs-in-2014-by-the-numbers-part-3-popular-listing-dates/http://www.realtor.org/topics/existing-home-sales/data
28, 29, 30Sales by Price Range, Existing Home Sales, Pending Home Sales
www.realtor.org
31, 33 30-Year Fixed Rate, Mortgage Rate Freddie Mac 2015
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmmshttp://www.freddiemac.com/finance/ehforecast.html
32 Mortgage Rate Projections
http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_012215.pdfhttp://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/january_2015_public_outlook.pdfhttp://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/90432_.pdfhttp://www.realtor.org
34-36 Months Inventory for Sale http://www.realtor.org/
37, 38, 39 Case Shiller YOY & HPI http://us.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
40 % of Distressed Properties http://www.realtor.org/
52 NAR Membership http://www.realtor.org/membership/historic-report
53 Seth Godin Quote http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2015/01/you-are-what-you-share.html
Resources
JOIN THE KCM MEMBERS FACEBOOK GROUP
facebook.com/groups/kcmmembers
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
NAR Membershipin thousands
NAR
"The culture we will live in next month is a direct result of what people like us share today. The things we share and don't share determine what happens next."
Seth Godin
"Homeownership is still the cornerstone of the American Dream — a fact you can see in the lives of everyday folks. It’s a source of pride. It’s a source of wealth, providing both a nest and a nest egg. And it strengthens communities and fuels growth in the overall economy."
Julián Castro, Secretary for HUD
FEBRUARY 2015