february 2014 greater boston real estate market trends report

Monthly Indicators A RESEARCH TOOL PROVIDED BY THE GREATER BOSTON ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

February 2014 Quick Facts

- 5.2%

Year-Over-Year(YoY) Change inClosed Sales

Single-Family Only

It's tempting to confuse market normalization with a possible slowdown. But those equipped with high-quality MLS data know better. As mortgage delinquencies fade, banks are listing bargain-priced product less often. That means investor activity – which accounts for a substantial market share – is moderating. That's not to say that rates and prices aren't still attractive to owner-occupant buyers. They most certainly are. Some short-term volatility is expected as part of a normal market readjustment.

- 4.4%Year-Over-Year(YoY) Change inClosed Sales

Condominium Only

- 4.8%Year-Over-Year(YoY) Change inClosed SalesAll Properties

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10111213

Data is refreshed regularly to capture changes in market activity so figures shown may be different than previously reported. Current as of March 17, 2014. All data from MLS PropertyInformation Network, Inc. Provided by Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing.

New Listings in the Greater Boston region were down 4.7 percent for detached homes and 7.1 percent for condominiums. Closed Sales decreased 5.2 percent for detached homes and 4.4 percent for condominiums.

The Median Sales Price was up 11.4 percent to $478,900 for single-family properties and 14.3 percent to $400,000 for condominiums. Months Supply of Inventory decreased 22.5 percent for single-family units and 27.0 percent for townhouse-condo units.

The economy has more or less shuffled along, despite some climate-induced surprises to job growth and new construction. There is no denying the fact that we've now seen 47 straight months of private job growth, creating 8.5 million new payrolls. There's still work to be done. Thankfully, with such low inventory levels, many builders are bullish on new construction. The spring market is budding, and it should be an interesting one.

Single-Family Market Overview

Condominium Market Overview

Closed Sales

Median Sales Price

Housing Affordability Index

Inventory of Homes for Sale

Click on desired metric to jump to that page.

Months Supply of Inventory

Days On Market Until Sale

Percent of Original List Price Received

City of Boston Overview

Pending Sales

New Listings

Single-Family Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for Single-Family Homes Only.

Key Metrics Historical Sparklines Feb-2013 Feb-2014 + / – YTD 2013 YTD 2014 + / –

Median Sales Price

- 26.5% -- --

- 18.2% 122 98 - 19.1%

--


Inventory of Homes for Sale

$430,000 + 12.8%

122 99

2,401 1,764

$478,900 + 11.4% $430,000

969 - 5.2%Closed Sales 425 403 - 5.2% 1,022

$485,000

2-2011 2-2012 2-2013 2-2014

2-2011 2-2012 2-2013 2-2014

2-2011 2-2012 2-2013 2-2014

2-2011 2-2012 2-2013 2-2014

94.0% 95.8%

- 24.0%

+ 2.0%Percent of OriginalList Price Received

Days on Market Until Sale

94.1%

- 19.7%

+ 2.0%

89

96.0%

Pending Sales - 6.3%1,241702 708 + 0.9% 1,324

Months Supply of Inventory 5.6

111 83

-- -- --4.4 - 22.5%

110

All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 2

New Listings 984 938 - 4.7% 1,854 1,672 - 9.8%

2 2011 2 2012 2 2013 2 2014

2-2011 2-2012 2-2013 2-2014

2-2011 2-2012 2-2013 2-2014

2-2011 2-2012 2-2013 2-2014

2-2011 2-2012 2-2013 2-2014

2-2011 2-2012 2-2013 2-2014

Condominium Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for Condominium Properties Only.


- 0.9%

Median Sales Price $350,000 $400,000 + 14.3% $360,000 $410,000 + 13.9%

Closed Sales 435 416 - 4.4% 949 940

- 19.7%

Inventory of Homes for Sale 1,700 1,187 - 30.2% -- -- --

Housing Affordability Index 146 117 - 19.9% 143 115

2-2011 2-2012 2-2013 2-2014

2-2011 2-2012 2-2013 2-2014

2-2011 2-2012 2-2013 2-2014

2-2011 2-2012 2-2013 2-2014

--

Days on Market Until Sale 95 77 - 19.7% 92 69 - 24.7%

Months Supply of Inventory 3.9 2.9 - 27.0% -- --

+ 1.5%

Pending Sales 712 747 + 4.9% 1,368 1,363 - 0.4%

Percent of OriginalList Price Received

96.7% 98.1% + 1.5% 96.2% 97.7%

- 12.5%


New Listings 950 883 - 7.1% 1,852 1,620

2 2011 2 2012 2 2013 2 2014

2-2011 2-2012 2-2013 2-2014

2-2011 2-2012 2-2013 2-2014

2-2011 2-2012 2-2013 2-2014

2-2011 2-2012 2-2013 2-2014

2-2011 2-2012 2-2013 2-2014

Closed Sales A count of the actual sales that have closed in a given month.

Single-FamilyYoY

ChangeCondominium

YoYChange

Mar-2013 616 - 3.8% 628 + 3.6%

Apr-2013 767 + 4.4% 805 + 6.5%

May-2013 1,096 + 10.0% 1,068 + 6.4%

Jun-2013 1,481 - 1.1% 1,246 - 1.0%

Jul-2013 1,488 + 18.0% 1,252 + 20.7%

Aug-2013 1,428 + 11.6% 1,276 + 6.2%

Sep-2013 919 + 22.4% 887 + 18.7%

Oct-2013 855 + 10.5% 764 + 7.5%

Nov-2013 791 - 11.4% 711 - 5.8%

Dec-2013 898 + 10.3% 790 + 3.1%

Jan-2014 566 - 5.2% 524 + 1.9%

Feb-2014 403 - 5.2% 416 - 4.4%

462

384425 435

403 416

February

20142013 20142013

980

794

1,022949969 940

Year to Date

20142013 201420132012 2012 2012 2012

Total 11,308 + 6.0% 10,367 + 5.9%


Single-Family Condominium

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014

Historical Closed Sales Activity Single-Family Condominium

-4.4%+13.3%-8.0%

Single-Family Condominium-0.9%+19.5%+4.3%-5.2% -5.2%

Median Sales Price Median price point for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.

Single-FamilyYoY

ChangeCondominium

YoYChange

Mar-2013 $430,101 + 3.6% $405,000 + 19.1%

Apr-2013 $480,000 + 14.3% $387,500 + 4.3%

May-2013 $500,000 + 7.2% $410,000 + 7.5%

Jun-2013 $545,000 + 8.1% $420,000 + 5.0%

Jul-2013 $533,000 + 4.1% $400,500 + 3.5%

Aug-2013 $521,000 + 5.5% $416,250 + 9.5%

Sep-2013 $502,500 + 15.5% $410,000 + 9.3%

Oct-2013 $474,000 + 9.0% $416,750 + 13.8%

Nov-2013 $480,000 + 6.7% $410,500 + 8.0%

Dec-2013 $500,000 + 6.4% $420,400 + 10.5%

Jan-2014 $485,838 + 13.0% $420,500 + 13.9%

Feb-2014 $478,900 + 11.4% $400,000 + 14.3%

$397,000$370,000

$430,000

$350,000

$478,900

$400,000

February

20142013 20142013

$403,000

$360,000

$430,000

$360,000

$485,000

$410,000

Year to Date

20142013 201420132012 2012 2012 2012

Median $501,000 + 7.7% $410,000 + 8.2%



$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$550,000


Historical Median Sales Price Single-Family Condominium

+14.3%-5.4%+8.3%

Single-Family Condominium+13.9%0.0%+6.7%+11.4% +12.8%


Single-FamilyYoY

ChangeCondominium

YoYChange

Mar-2013 121 + 3.4% 128 - 8.8%

Apr-2013 112 - 5.3% 136 + 2.9%

May-2013 104 - 4.8% 124 - 4.9%

Jun-2013 90 - 11.8% 114 - 9.2%

Jul-2013 92 - 9.2% 120 - 8.5%

Aug-2013 93 - 11.2% 114 - 13.9%

Sep-2013 98 - 18.5% 118 - 14.0%

Oct-2013 103 - 13.4% 116 - 16.6%

Nov-2013 108 - 6.7% 125 - 7.6%

Dec-2013 99 - 11.9% 117 - 14.6%

Jan-2014 97 - 22.5% 110 - 22.9%

Feb-2014 99 - 18.2% 117 - 19.9%

This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income was 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.

124132

122

146

99

117

February

122

135

122

143

98

115

Year to Date

20142013 20142013 20142013 201420132012 2012 2012 2012

Average 101 -10.8% 120 -11.5%



60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014

Historical Housing Affordability Index Single-Family Condominium

-19.9%+11.2%-1.6%

Single-Family Condominium-19.7%+6.1%-0.3%-18.2% -19.1%

Inventory of Homes for Sale The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.

Single-FamilyYoY

ChangeCondominium

YoYChange

Mar-2013 2,377 - 40.7% 1,732 - 47.0%

Apr-2013 2,769 - 34.8% 1,974 - 40.1%

May-2013 3,037 - 30.7% 2,070 - 35.0%

Jun-2013 3,029 - 26.7% 2,024 - 31.9%

Jul-2013 2,860 - 25.1% 1,856 - 32.3%

Aug-2013 2,752 - 23.6% 1,737 - 28.4%

Sep-2013 2,991 - 20.5% 1,950 - 22.9%

Oct-2013 2,864 - 17.6% 1,876 - 19.2%

Nov-2013 2,382 - 20.2% 1,556 - 22.4%

Dec-2013 1,779 - 22.5% 1,218 - 20.0%

Jan-2014 1,713 - 25.3% 1,178 - 25.5%

Feb-2014 1,764 - 26.5% 1,187 - 30.2%

3,557

2,905

2,401

1,7001,764

1,187

February

20142013 201420132012 2012

Average 2,526 - 26.8% 1,697 - 31.1%



1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000


Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale Single-Family Condominium

-30.2%-41.5%-32.5% -26.5%

Months Supply of Inventory The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.

Single-FamilyYoY

ChangeCondominium

YoYChange

Mar-2013 3.9 - 38.4% 2.8 - 48.9%

Apr-2013 3.6 - 37.6% 2.5 - 43.8%

May-2013 2.8 - 37.0% 1.9 - 38.9%

Jun-2013 2.0 - 25.9% 1.6 - 31.1%

Jul-2013 1.9 - 36.5% 1.5 - 43.9%

Aug-2013 1.9 - 31.5% 1.4 - 32.5%

Sep-2013 3.3 - 35.0% 2.2 - 35.0%

Oct-2013 3.3 - 25.4% 2.5 - 24.8%

Nov-2013 3.0 - 9.9% 2.2 - 17.6%

Dec-2013 2.0 - 29.8% 1.5 - 22.5%

Jan-2014 3.0 - 21.2% 2.2 - 27.0%

Feb-2014 4.4 - 22.5% 2.9 - 27.0%

7.7 7.6

5.6

3.94.4

2.9

February

20142013 201420132012 2012

Average 2.7 - 34.3% 2.0 - 40.1%



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014

Historical Months Supply of Inventory Single-Family Condominium

-27.0%-48.3%-26.6% -22.5%

Days on Market Until Sale Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.

Single-FamilyYoY

ChangeCondominium

YoYChange

Mar-2013 107 - 17.4% 71 - 39.0%

Apr-2013 93 - 22.8% 63 - 35.1%

May-2013 75 - 22.3% 51 - 40.3%

Jun-2013 56 - 37.8% 43 - 42.4%

Jul-2013 47 - 41.6% 38 - 46.2%

Aug-2013 48 - 45.1% 40 - 47.0%

Sep-2013 57 - 36.1% 49 - 42.0%

Oct-2013 59 - 33.7% 47 - 43.9%

Nov-2013 65 - 27.2% 51 - 33.6%

Dec-2013 70 - 28.0% 55 - 34.2%

Jan-2014 79 - 27.3% 63 - 28.7%

Feb-2014 89 - 19.7% 77 - 19.7%

134123

111

9589

77

February

132124

110

9283

69

Year to Date

20142013 20142013 20142013 201420132012 2012 2012 2012

Total 65 - 31.9% 49 - 37.5%



30

50

70

90

110

130

150


Historical Days on Market Until Sale Single-Family Condominium

-19.7%-22.6%-16.7%

Single-Family Condominium-24.7%-26.3%-17.1%-19.7% -24.0%

Percent of Original List Price Received

Single-FamilyYoY

ChangeCondominium

YoYChange

Mar-2013 95.2% + 2.3% 97.6% + 3.8%

Apr-2013 96.7% + 3.5% 98.8% + 3.2%

May-2013 97.8% + 2.6% 99.5% + 3.5%

Jun-2013 98.4% + 3.3% 99.7% + 3.5%

Jul-2013 98.1% + 2.4% 99.9% + 3.5%

Aug-2013 97.9% + 3.3% 99.7% + 3.5%

Sep-2013 97.3% + 3.0% 99.0% + 2.6%

Oct-2013 97.2% + 3.0% 98.8% + 3.1%

Nov-2013 96.3% + 1.7% 98.9% + 2.8%

Dec-2013 95.9% + 1.7% 98.0% + 1.9%

Jan-2014 95.7% + 1.9% 97.4% + 1.6%

Feb-2014 96.0% + 2.0% 98.1% + 1.5%

Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its original list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.

91.3% 93.4%94.1% 96.7%96.0% 98.1%

February

90.8% 93.2%94.0% 96.2%95.8% 97.7%

Year to Date

20142013 20142013 20142013 201420132012 2012 2012 2012

Average 97.2% + 2.7% 99.0% + 3.1%



89%

91%

93%

95%

97%

99%

101%


Historical Percent of Original List Price Received Single-Family Condominium

+1.5%+3.5%+3.2%

Single-Family Condominium+1.5%+3.2%+3.5%+2.0% +2.0%

Pending Sales A count of the properties in UAG status between the first and last day in a given month, regardless of current status (based on Off Market Date).

Single-FamilyYoY

ChangeCondominium

YoYChange

Mar-2013 1,164 + 1.9% 1,164 + 9.3%

Apr-2013 1,380 + 12.4% 1,270 + 9.2%

May-2013 1,479 + 15.7% 1,257 + 6.7%

Jun-2013 1,284 + 9.5% 1,089 + 9.9%

Jul-2013 978 + 4.8% 952 + 19.7%

Aug-2013 887 + 15.2% 759 + 4.1%

Sep-2013 836 - 1.9% 785 + 7.2%

Oct-2013 942 + 8.5% 814 + 3.0%

Nov-2013 704 + 3.5% 635 + 6.9%

Dec-2013 478 - 4.6% 422 - 8.1%

Jan-2014 533 - 14.3% 616 - 6.1%

Feb-2014 708 + 0.9% 747 + 4.9%

753 744702 712708

747

February

1,3581,2971,324 1,368

1,2411,363

Year to Date

20142013 20142013 20142013 201420132012 2012 2012 2012

Total 11,373 + 5.8% 10,510 + 6.5%



200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200


Historical Pending Sales Activity Single-Family Condominium

+4.9%-4.3%-6.8%

Single-Family Condominium-0.4%+5.5%-2.5%+0.9% -6.3%

New Listings A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.

Single-FamilyYoY

ChangeCondominium

YoYChange

Mar-2013 1,343 - 30.6% 1,342 - 21.1%

Apr-2013 1,995 + 14.7% 1,661 + 13.5%

May-2013 1,981 + 14.4% 1,531 + 12.6%

Jun-2013 1,505 + 15.1% 1,223 + 7.9%

Jul-2013 1,116 + 12.4% 993 + 12.3%

Aug-2013 1,030 + 6.0% 867 + 11.7%

Sep-2013 1,456 + 6.4% 1,253 + 11.0%

Oct-2013 1,218 + 18.6% 1,010 + 17.3%

Nov-2013 651 + 4.5% 554 + 0.4%

Dec-2013 395 + 12.9% 362 + 17.9%

Jan-2014 734 - 15.6% 737 - 18.3%

Feb-2014 938 - 4.7% 883 - 7.1%

1,268

1,112

984 950938883

February

2,1912,038

1,854 1,8521,672 1,620

Year to Date

20142013 20142013 20142013 201420132012 2012 2012 2012

Total 14,362 + 3.3% 12,416 + 3.3%



0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

2,250

2,500

2,750


Historical New Listing Activity Single-Family Condominium

-7.1%-14.6%-22.4%

Single-Family Condominium-12.5%-9.1%-15.4%-4.7% -9.8%

City of Boston – Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for the City of Boston.


+ 7.0%

Median Sales Price $384,000 $478,000 + 24.5% $405,000 $469,750 + 16.0%

Closed Sales 226 240 + 6.2% 497 532

- 19.1%

Inventory of Homes for Sale 832 618 - 25.7% -- -- --

Housing Affordability Index 122 99 - 18.2% 122 98

2-2011 2-2012 2-2013 2-2014

2-2011 2-2012 2-2013 2-2014

2-2011 2-2012 2-2013 2-2014

2-2011 2-2012 2-2013 2-2014

--

Days on Market Until Sale 82 78 - 5.2% 79 68 - 13.8%

Months Supply of Inventory 3.7 2.6 - 30.1% -- --

+ 1.3%

Pending Sales 406 394 - 3.0% 738 716 - 3.0%

Percent of OriginalList Price Received

96.7% 98.1% + 1.4% 96.5% 97.7%

- 15.3%


New Listings 559 483 - 13.6% 1,033 875

2 2011 2 2012 2 2013 2 2014

2-2011 2-2012 2-2013 2-2014

2-2011 2-2012 2-2013 2-2014

2-2011 2-2012 2-2013 2-2014

2-2011 2-2012 2-2013 2-2014

2-2011 2-2012 2-2013 2-2014

february 2014 greater boston real estate market trends report

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