february 11, 2003john roberts1 stanford gsb sloan program strategic management 11: demand-side...

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February 11, 200 3 John Roberts 1 Stanford GSB Sloan Program Strategic Management 11: Demand-Side Increasing Returns Sony Corporation

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Page 1: February 11, 2003John Roberts1 Stanford GSB Sloan Program Strategic Management 11: Demand-Side Increasing Returns Sony Corporation

February 11, 2003 John Roberts 1

Stanford GSBSloan Program

Strategic Management

11: Demand-Side Increasing Returns

Sony Corporation

Page 2: February 11, 2003John Roberts1 Stanford GSB Sloan Program Strategic Management 11: Demand-Side Increasing Returns Sony Corporation

February 11, 2003 John Roberts 2

• DSIR-- the positive spin:– The benefits to any user (consumer or firm)

from a product depend on the number of others using“related” technologies/products.

• DSIR-- the negative spin:– The pressure on any user (consumer or firm) to

use a product depends on the number of others using“related” technologies/products.

Page 3: February 11, 2003John Roberts1 Stanford GSB Sloan Program Strategic Management 11: Demand-Side Increasing Returns Sony Corporation

February 11, 2003 John Roberts 3

• Two drivers of DSIR:

– Network effects: the value of the item to a user depends positively on the number of other users (first-order network effects)

– Compatible complement effects: the user (implicitly) values compatibility of the item with complements, the value or supply of which depends on the number of users (second order network effects).

Page 4: February 11, 2003John Roberts1 Stanford GSB Sloan Program Strategic Management 11: Demand-Side Increasing Returns Sony Corporation

February 11, 2003 John Roberts 4

• Strategic challenge/opportunity in markets with network externalities:– Expectations are crucial: adoption depends on

how many others are expected to adopt the (compatible) item.

This chicken and egg/coordination problem means that many such items never get adopted.

However, it also means that, once adopted, there tends to be strong ‘lock-in’.

- Key importance of switching costs

Page 5: February 11, 2003John Roberts1 Stanford GSB Sloan Program Strategic Management 11: Demand-Side Increasing Returns Sony Corporation

February 11, 2003 John Roberts 5

• Controversy: do DSIR mean that mediocre technologies win?– Mixed evidence

• QWERTY

• VHS

• DOS/Windows

– Item’s quality must remain high enough to overcome costs of adopting rival item

– Disproportionate success due to tipping

Page 6: February 11, 2003John Roberts1 Stanford GSB Sloan Program Strategic Management 11: Demand-Side Increasing Returns Sony Corporation

February 11, 2003 John Roberts 6

• Factors swaying adoption• Reputations• Number of existing platforms• Cost of adoption (e.g., software)• Influential buyers (e.g., Safeway with UPCs)• ‘Open’ Standards

– Trade-off with monopoly position

• Availability of complements

Page 7: February 11, 2003John Roberts1 Stanford GSB Sloan Program Strategic Management 11: Demand-Side Increasing Returns Sony Corporation

February 11, 2003 John Roberts 7

• Strategic Tools in Markets with DSIR• Provide or subsidize complements to ensure

availability (ownership?)• Exaggerated Claims• Advance sign-ups• Give-aways and bargain prices

– Product to get buyers

– Technology to get suppliers and set standard

• Upgrade pricing• “Winks” at pirates

Page 8: February 11, 2003John Roberts1 Stanford GSB Sloan Program Strategic Management 11: Demand-Side Increasing Returns Sony Corporation

February 11, 2003 John Roberts 8

• Leveraging positional advantage– A firm that controls the prior standard may be

able to steer technological change in a preferred direction.

– Examples from Microsoft:• Using its dominance with MS-DOS to gain acceptance

for Windows and the consequent takeover of the applications layer.

• Various strategies to make web-users use IE and make the latter dependent on the Windows OS (e.g., deal with OEMs, deals with ISPs, melding IE with the OS)