fb external report for w8, 2017 - nordic regional · 20-02-2017 21-02-2017 22-02-2017 23-02-2017...

25
FB external report for w8, 2017 Contents of the report Subject Page Comments 1 Market analysis 2 Socio-economical welfare 3-5 Congestion rent 6 Non-intuitive flow 7 Net positions 8-9 Prices 10-13 System Price 14 Power system impact analysis 15-16 Cross-border flows and capacities 17-25 Comments Highlights Known errors Missing hours In some of the hours during the 23rd and 25th of Febuary the NTC domain was unsafe in regards to N- 1 security. As Flow Based does not allow over loads the FB domain is smaller durring these hours than NTC. This means that in some hours there is a negative welfare from switcing from NTC to FB, however the CTNC domain would have been equally restricted as the FB domain. Some hours are missing in the weekly simulations. This can be due to different issues: -The input data for this hour was not available. -They were differences in the available input data for NTC and FB, which made the comparison between the two impossible. 1

Upload: others

Post on 18-Sep-2020

2 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: FB external report for w8, 2017 - Nordic Regional · 20-02-2017 21-02-2017 22-02-2017 23-02-2017 24-02-2017 25-02-2017 26-02-2017 FB-NTC k € k € Sweden, socio-economic welfare

FB external report for w8, 2017

Contents of the reportSubject Page

Comments 1Market analysis 2

Socio-economical welfare 3-5

Congestion rent 6

Non-intuitive flow 7

Net positions 8-9

Prices 10-13

System Price 14

Power system impact analysis 15-16

Cross-border flows and capacities 17-25

CommentsHighlights

Known errors

Missing hours

In some of the hours during the 23rd and 25th of Febuary the NTC domain was unsafe in regards to N-1 security. As Flow Based does not allow over loads the FB domain is smaller durring these hours than NTC. This means that in some hours there is a negative welfare from switcing from NTC to FB, however the CTNC domain would have been equally restricted as the FB domain.

Some hours are missing in the weekly simulations. This can be due to different issues: -The input data for this hour was not available. -They were differences in the available input data for NTC and FB, which made the comparison between the two impossible.

1

Page 2: FB external report for w8, 2017 - Nordic Regional · 20-02-2017 21-02-2017 22-02-2017 23-02-2017 24-02-2017 25-02-2017 26-02-2017 FB-NTC k € k € Sweden, socio-economic welfare

Market analysis

Nordic

Denmark

Norway

Finland

Sweden

The SEW increases for the Nordics this week, where the majority of

the SEW is created in Denmark. The external areas also experience

an increase in SEW.

It is especially in the early morning and durring the night on the

20th, 24th and 26th that the increased SEW is created in Denmark.

This is a typical high wind scenario, where FB allocates flows

differently such that a lot more export from Denmark is possible.

This creates higher prices in the danish areas and increases

producer surplus.

Norway expericenes marginal decreases in SEW this week. The loss

in SEW is mainly due to price convergence which means that

congestion income is lower in FB compared to NTC.

Finland expericenes an increase in SEW more or less the same days

that Denmark experiences increaes. For Finland the higher

distribution of Danish wind decreases prices and increases

consumer surplus.

In Sweden there is a marginal loss of SEW. The prices decrease in SE

due to higher wind exports from Denmark. This increases consumer

surplus, and decreases producer surlplus. Due to the price

convergence congestion income is also reduced in FB compared to

NTC. All in all this gives a slight loss in SEW for Sweden.

Summary of market analysis

2

Page 3: FB external report for w8, 2017 - Nordic Regional · 20-02-2017 21-02-2017 22-02-2017 23-02-2017 24-02-2017 25-02-2017 26-02-2017 FB-NTC k € k € Sweden, socio-economic welfare

Socio-economical welfareThe socio-economical welfare, i.e. the sum of consumer surplus, producer surplus and congestion rent, for Flow Based (FB) compared to Net Transfer Capacity (NTC) are shown in the following charts.

The weekly socio-economical welfare per day and in total are shown in the following charts.

-2,0

-1,0

0,0

1,0

2,0

DK NO SE FIN

FB-NTC

M€

Nordic socio-economic per country

Congestion rent Producer surplus

Consumer surplus -300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

DK NO SE FIN

FB-NTC

k€

Total Nordic socio-economic welfare per country

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

FB-NTC

M€

External socio-economic welfare per stakeholder

Congestion rent Producer surplus

Consumer surplus0

50

100

150

200

250

FB-NTC

k€

Total External socio-economic welfare

3

Page 4: FB external report for w8, 2017 - Nordic Regional · 20-02-2017 21-02-2017 22-02-2017 23-02-2017 24-02-2017 25-02-2017 26-02-2017 FB-NTC k € k € Sweden, socio-economic welfare

The weekly socio-economical welfare per day and in total are shown in the following charts.

The hourly socio-economical welfare for each country are shown in the following charts.

-0,8-0,6-0,4-0,2

00,20,40,60,8

20

-02

-20

17

21

-02

-20

17

22

-02

-20

17

23

-02

-20

17

24

-02

-20

17

25

-02

-20

17

26

-02

-20

17

FB-NTC

M€

Nordic socio-economic welfare per stakeholder and day

Congestion rent Producer surplus Consumer surplus

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

FB-NTC

M€

…and in total

-200

20406080

100120140

20

-02

-20

17

21

-02

-20

17

22

-02

-20

17

23

-02

-20

17

24

-02

-20

17

25

-02

-20

17

26

-02

-20

17

FB-NTC

k€

Total Nordic socio-economic welfare per day

0

50

100

150

200

250

FB-NTC

k€

...and in total

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

1,5

20

-02

-2

01

7

21

-02

-2

01

7

22

-02

-2

01

7

23

-02

-2

01

7

24

-02

-2

01

7

25

-02

-2

01

7

26

-02

-2

01

7

FB-NTC

M€

External socio-economic welfare per stakeholder and day

Congestion rent Producer surplus Consumer surplus

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

FB-NTC

M€

...and in total

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

20

-02

-20

17

21

-02

-20

17

22

-02

-20

17

23

-02

-20

17

24

-02

-20

17

25

-02

-20

17

26

-02

-20

17

FB-NTC

k€

Total External socio-economic welfare per day

0

50

100

150

200

FB-NTC

k€

…and in total

4

Page 5: FB external report for w8, 2017 - Nordic Regional · 20-02-2017 21-02-2017 22-02-2017 23-02-2017 24-02-2017 25-02-2017 26-02-2017 FB-NTC k € k € Sweden, socio-economic welfare

Congestion rent

The hourly socio-economical welfare for each country are shown in the following charts.

The total congestion rent, i.e. the product of flow volume and price difference, per border is shown in

-10

-5

0

5

10

-100

-50

0

50

100

0 5 101520 1 6 111621 2 7 121722 3 8 131823 4 9 1419 0 5 101520 1 6 111621

20-02-2017 21-02-2017 22-02-2017 23-02-2017 24-02-2017 25-02-2017 26-02-2017

FB-NTC

Sum

k€

SEW

per

sta

keh

old

er k

€ Denmark, socio-economic welfare per stakeholder and hour

Congestion rent Producer surplus Consumer surplus Sum

-4

-2

0

2

4

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

0 5 101520 1 6 111621 2 7 121722 3 8 131823 4 9 1419 0 5 101520 1 6 111621

20-02-2017 21-02-2017 22-02-2017 23-02-2017 24-02-2017 25-02-2017 26-02-2017

FB-NTC

Sum

k€

SEW

per

sta

keh

old

er k

€ Finland, socio-economic welfare per stakeholder and hour

Congestion rent Producer surplus Consumer surplus Sum

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-80

-30

20

70

0 5 101520 1 6 111621 2 7 121722 3 8 131823 4 9 1419 0 5 101520 1 6 111621

20-02-2017 21-02-2017 22-02-2017 23-02-2017 24-02-2017 25-02-2017 26-02-2017

FB-NTC

Sum

k€

SEW

per

sta

keh

old

er k

€ Norway, socio-economic welfare per stakeholder and hour

Congestion rent Producer surplus Consumer surplus Sum

-10

-5

0

5

10

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

0 5 101520 1 6 111621 2 7 121722 3 8 131823 4 9 1419 0 5 101520 1 6 111621

20-02-2017 21-02-2017 22-02-2017 23-02-2017 24-02-2017 25-02-2017 26-02-2017

FB-NTC

Sum

k€

SEW

per

sta

keh

old

er k

€ Sweden, socio-economic welfare per stakeholder and hour

Congestion rent Producer surplus Consumer surplus Sum

5

Page 6: FB external report for w8, 2017 - Nordic Regional · 20-02-2017 21-02-2017 22-02-2017 23-02-2017 24-02-2017 25-02-2017 26-02-2017 FB-NTC k € k € Sweden, socio-economic welfare

Non-intuitive flow

The total congestion rent, i.e. the product of flow volume and price difference, per border is shown in the following chart. Some borders are experience negative congestion rent with Flow Based due to non-intuitive netflows from a higher priced bidding area to a lower priced bidding area. A decrease in congestion rent is due to less border flow and/or smaller price area difference.

-0,5 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5

BE > FRBE > NL

DE > DK1DE > DK2

DE > FRDE > NL

DE > SE4DK1 > DK1A

DK1 > DK2DK1 > NO2DK1 > SE3

DK1A > NO2DK1A > SE3

DK2 > SE4EE > ERIEE > FINEE > LV

FIN > FREFIN > NO4FIN > SE1FIN > SE3FR > GB1

GB1 > GB2GB2 > NLLBE > LTLBI > LT

LRE > LVLRI > LVLT > LV

LT > PLALT > SE4

NL > NO2NO1 > NO1A

NO1 > NO2NO1 > NO3NO1 > NO5NO1 > SE3

NO1A > NO2NO1A > NO5

NO2 > NO5NO3 > NO4NO3 > NO5NO3 > SE2NO4 > SE1NO4 > SE2

PL > PLAPLA > SE4SE1 > SE2SE2 > SE3SE3 > SE4

NO1 > NO2_Skagerrak

M€

FB NTC

The number of hours with "non-intuitive flow", i.e. hours with flow from a high priced area to a low

6

Page 7: FB external report for w8, 2017 - Nordic Regional · 20-02-2017 21-02-2017 22-02-2017 23-02-2017 24-02-2017 25-02-2017 26-02-2017 FB-NTC k € k € Sweden, socio-economic welfare

Nordic net position The Nordic and External countries daily average net position, i.e. the netted sum of electricity export and import for each market time period ,is shown in the following charts along with the change of buy

The number of hours with "non-intuitive flow", i.e. hours with flow from a high priced area to a low priced area, and the sum of the resulting negative congestion rent is shown in the following diagram.

0 2 2

20

8

32

8

46

7

37

0

21

37

28

2

41

27

10

36

47

25 25

0

35

23 19

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

DE

> D

K1

DE

> D

K2

DE

> SE

4

DK

1 >

DK

2

DK

1 >

NO

2

DK

1 >

SE3

DK

2 >

SE4

FIN

> N

O4

FIN

> S

E1

FIN

> S

E3

LT >

SE4

NL

> N

O2

NO

1 >

NO

2

NO

1 >

NO

3

NO

1 >

NO

5

NO

1 >

SE3

NO

2 >

NO

5

NO

3 >

NO

4

NO

3 >

NO

5

NO

3 >

SE2

NO

4 >

SE1

NO

4 >

SE2

PL

> SE

4

SE1

> S

E2

SE2

> S

E3

SE3

> S

E4

k€/w

ee

k

h/w

ee

k

Hours with non-intuitive flow and sum of negative congestion rent per border

Number of hours with non-intuitive flows Sum negative congestion rent

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0 4 8 121620 0 4 8 121620 0 4 8 121620 0 4 8 121620 0 4 8 121620 0 4 8 121620 0 4 8 121620

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

Number of Nordic borders with non-intuitive flow per hour

7

Page 8: FB external report for w8, 2017 - Nordic Regional · 20-02-2017 21-02-2017 22-02-2017 23-02-2017 24-02-2017 25-02-2017 26-02-2017 FB-NTC k € k € Sweden, socio-economic welfare

-4000-2000

0200040006000

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-02-20

2017-02-21

2017-02-22

2017-02-23

2017-02-24

2017-02-25

2017-02-26

MW

h/h

Nordic net position per hour

FB NTC

0

20

40

60

Nordics

GW

h

…and in total

FB NTC

-6000-4000-2000

020004000

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-02-20

2017-02-21

2017-02-22

2017-02-23

2017-02-24

2017-02-25

2017-02-26

MW

h/h

External net position per hour

FB NTC

-60

-40

-20

0

External

GW

h

...and in total

FB NTC

The Nordic and External countries daily average net position, i.e. the netted sum of electricity export and import for each market time period ,is shown in the following charts along with the change of buy and sell volymes.

The hourly average net position per Nordic country is shown in the following charts .

-40

-20

0

20

DK NO SE FIN

GW

h

Nordic buy and sell volume per country

Buy volume FB-NTC Sell volume FB-NTC

-10.000

-5.000

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

GW

h

Buy volume of FB compared to CNTC, External

Buy volume FB-NTC Sell volume FB-NTC

8

Page 9: FB external report for w8, 2017 - Nordic Regional · 20-02-2017 21-02-2017 22-02-2017 23-02-2017 24-02-2017 25-02-2017 26-02-2017 FB-NTC k € k € Sweden, socio-economic welfare

Unique prices and price difference

-2000

0

2000

4000

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-02-20

2017-02-21

2017-02-22

2017-02-23

2017-02-24

2017-02-25

2017-02-26

MW

h/h

Denmark, net position per hour

FB NTC

0200040006000

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-02-20

2017-02-21

2017-02-22

2017-02-23

2017-02-24

2017-02-25

2017-02-26

MW

h/h

Sweden, net position per hour

FB NTC

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-02-20

2017-02-21

2017-02-22

2017-02-23

2017-02-24

2017-02-25

2017-02-26

MW

h/h

Norway, net position per hour

FB NTC

-4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-02-20

2017-02-21

2017-02-22

2017-02-23

2017-02-24

2017-02-25

2017-02-26

MW

h/h

Finland, net position per hour

FB NTC

80

90

100

110

Denmark

GW

h

…and in total

FB NTC

245

250

255

260

Sweden

GW

h

…and in total

FB NTC

-150

-100

-50

0

Norway

GW

h

…and in total

FB NTC

-187-186-185-184-183-182

Finland

GW

h

…and in total

FB NTC

The average number of Nordic bidding areas with unique hourly prices, and the price area difference is shown in the following charts. The number of uniquely priced bidding areas is increasing with FB but

9

Page 10: FB external report for w8, 2017 - Nordic Regional · 20-02-2017 21-02-2017 22-02-2017 23-02-2017 24-02-2017 25-02-2017 26-02-2017 FB-NTC k € k € Sweden, socio-economic welfare

Area Price

0

5

10

15

0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18

2017-02-20

2017-02-21

2017-02-22

2017-02-23

2017-02-24

2017-02-25

2017-02-26

Number of Nordic bidding areas with unique price

FB NTC

010203040

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-02-20

2017-02-21

2017-02-22

2017-02-23

2017-02-24

2017-02-25

2017-02-26

€/M

Wh

Nordic hourly prices

FB NTC

0

50

€/M

Wh

…and in average

FB NTC

The average number of Nordic bidding areas with unique hourly prices, and the price area difference is shown in the following charts. The number of uniquely priced bidding areas is increasing with FB but the average price differences between the bidding areas are lower in FB compared to NTC. In the shatter diagram below the price with FB and the price with NTC for each hour are plotted. The straight line represent the outcome if FB-price would be equal NTC-price. The plotted prices show more frequent above the straight line which indicates a decreased electricity price with Flow Base.

The hourly area price for FB and NTC for each Nordic bidding area are shown in the following charts.

0

10

…and in average

FB NTC

17

22

27

32

37

17 22 27 32 37

NTC

, €/M

Wh

FB, €/MWh

Lower price difference with FB

Lower price difference with NTC

10

Page 11: FB external report for w8, 2017 - Nordic Regional · 20-02-2017 21-02-2017 22-02-2017 23-02-2017 24-02-2017 25-02-2017 26-02-2017 FB-NTC k € k € Sweden, socio-economic welfare

The hourly area price for FB and NTC for each Nordic bidding area are shown in the following charts.

-20,0

0,0

20,0

40,0

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-02-20

2017-02-21

2017-02-22

2017-02-23

2017-02-24

2017-02-25

2017-02-26

€/M

Wh

DK2, hourly prices

FB DK2 NTC DK2

0,020,040,060,0

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-02-20

2017-02-21

2017-02-22

2017-02-23

2017-02-24

2017-02-25

2017-02-26

€/M

Wh

FIN, hourly prices

FB FIN NTC FIN

26,028,030,032,034,0

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-02-20

2017-02-21

2017-02-22

2017-02-23

2017-02-24

2017-02-25

2017-02-26

€/M

Wh

NO1, hourly prices

FB NO1 NTC NO1

0

10

20

€/M

Wh

…and in average

FB DK2 NTC DK2

0

20

40

€/M

Wh

…and in average

FB FIN NTC FIN

0

20

40

€/M

Wh

…and in average

FB NO1 NTC NO1

-20,0

0,0

20,0

40,0

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-02-20

2017-02-21

2017-02-22

2017-02-23

2017-02-24

2017-02-25

2017-02-26

€/M

Wh

DK1 hourly prices

FB DK1 NTC DK1

0

10

20

€/M

Wh

…and in average

FB DK1 NTC DK1

11

Page 12: FB external report for w8, 2017 - Nordic Regional · 20-02-2017 21-02-2017 22-02-2017 23-02-2017 24-02-2017 25-02-2017 26-02-2017 FB-NTC k € k € Sweden, socio-economic welfare

26,028,030,032,034,0

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-02-20

2017-02-21

2017-02-22

2017-02-23

2017-02-24

2017-02-25

2017-02-26

€/M

Wh

NO2, hourly prices

FB NO2 NTC NO2

0,010,020,030,040,0

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-02-20

2017-02-21

2017-02-22

2017-02-23

2017-02-24

2017-02-25

2017-02-26

€/M

Wh

NO3, hourly prices

FB NO3 NTC NO3

0,010,020,030,040,0

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-02-20

2017-02-21

2017-02-22

2017-02-23

2017-02-24

2017-02-25

2017-02-26

€/M

Wh

NO4, hourly prices

FB NO4 NTC NO4

26,028,030,032,034,0

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-02-20

2017-02-21

2017-02-22

2017-02-23

2017-02-24

2017-02-25

2017-02-26

€/M

Wh

NO5, hourly prices

FB NO5 NTC NO5

0

20

40

€/M

Wh

…and in average

FB NO2 NTC NO2

0

10

20

€/M

Wh

…and in average

FB NO3 NTC NO3

0

10

20

€/M

Wh

…and in average

FB NO4 NTC NO4

0

20

40

€/M

Wh

…and in average

FB NO5 NTC NO5

12

Page 13: FB external report for w8, 2017 - Nordic Regional · 20-02-2017 21-02-2017 22-02-2017 23-02-2017 24-02-2017 25-02-2017 26-02-2017 FB-NTC k € k € Sweden, socio-economic welfare

System priceThe Nordic system price is calculated without network constraints within the Nordic area, i.e. copper plate. In the parallel simulations of FB and NTC the Nordic system price is not calculated. The different

0,010,020,030,040,0

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-02-20

2017-02-21

2017-02-22

2017-02-23

2017-02-24

2017-02-25

2017-02-26

€/M

Wh

SE1, hourly prices

FB SE1 NTC SE1

0,010,020,030,040,0

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-02-20

2017-02-21

2017-02-22

2017-02-23

2017-02-24

2017-02-25

2017-02-26

€/M

Wh

SE2, hourly prices

FB SE2 NTC SE2

0

10

20

€/M

Wh

…and in average

FB SE1 NTC SE1

0

10

20

€/M

Wh

…and in average

FB SE2 NTC SE2

0,010,020,030,040,0

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-02-20

2017-02-21

2017-02-22

2017-02-23

2017-02-24

2017-02-25

2017-02-26

€/M

Wh

SE3, hourly prices

FB SE3 NTC SE3

0

10

20

€/M

Wh

…and in average

FB SE3 NTC SE3

-10,00,0

10,020,030,040,0

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-02-20

2017-02-21

2017-02-22

2017-02-23

2017-02-24

2017-02-25

2017-02-26

€/M

Wh

SE4, hourly prices

FB SE4 NTC SE4

0,00

10,00

20,00

€/M

Wh

…and in average

FB SE4 NTC SE4

13

Page 14: FB external report for w8, 2017 - Nordic Regional · 20-02-2017 21-02-2017 22-02-2017 23-02-2017 24-02-2017 25-02-2017 26-02-2017 FB-NTC k € k € Sweden, socio-economic welfare

Power system impact analysis

The Nordic system price is calculated without network constraints within the Nordic area, i.e. copper plate. In the parallel simulations of FB and NTC the Nordic system price is not calculated. The different modelling approach can though have an impact of system price due to different allocation of capacity to the interconnectors between the Nordics countries and the rest of Europe. The system price is calculated locally at Nord Pool after PCR, area price calculation. Calculated flows between the Nordics and the Netherlands/Germany are taken into account as either price independent import or as price independent export for NO2, DK1, DK2 and SE4. System price calculation has a different area configuration compared to areas price calculation. Norway, Denmark, Sweden and Finland constitute one bidding are. Baltic countries and Poland are configured as one area each, just as when calculating area prices. Between the Nordic region and the Baltic region + Poland the same capacities as in the PCR, area price calculation, are used when calculating the system price.

0 500 1000 1500 2000

DK1 -> DE

DK1 <- DE

DK2 -> SE4

DK2 <- SE4

FI -> EE

FI <- EE

NO2 -> NL

NO2 <- NL

SE4 -> DE

DE -> SE4

SE4 -> LT

LT -> SE4

PL - > SE4

SE4 -> PL

Capacity [MW]

Average capacities in and out from the Nordics per interconnector

Capacity FB

Capacity NTC

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

NTC FB NTC FB

Capacityfrom theNordics

Capacityto the

Nordics

Cap

acit

y [M

W]

…and in total

14

Page 15: FB external report for w8, 2017 - Nordic Regional · 20-02-2017 21-02-2017 22-02-2017 23-02-2017 24-02-2017 25-02-2017 26-02-2017 FB-NTC k € k € Sweden, socio-economic welfare

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

20-02-2017 23-02-2017 24-02-2017 25-02-2017 26-02-2017

Ove

rlo

ads

[MW

h/h

] Sum of CNE overloads systemwide per day

NTC - Market relevant NTC - Not market relevant

FB - Market relevant FB - Not market relevant

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

20-02-2017 23-02-2017 24-02-2017 25-02-2017 26-02-2017

Max

ove

rlo

ad [

MW

h/h

]

Max CNE overloads systemwide per day

NTC - Market relevant NTC - Not market relevant

FB - Market relevant FB - Not market relevant

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

0 5 10 15 20 1 6 11 16 21 2 7 12 17 22 3 8 13 18 23 4 9 14 19 0 5 10 15 20 1 6 11 16 21

20-02-2017 21-02-2017 22-02-2017 23-02-2017 24-02-2017 25-02-2017 26-02-2017

Ove

rlo

ads

[MW

h/h

]

Sum of CNE overloads systemwide per hour

Sum of NTC overloads Sum of FB overloads

The figure below shows the net increase in welfare against the net reduction in overloads when using FB instead of NTC. Each dot represents one hour of the week addressed in this report. Values

15

Page 16: FB external report for w8, 2017 - Nordic Regional · 20-02-2017 21-02-2017 22-02-2017 23-02-2017 24-02-2017 25-02-2017 26-02-2017 FB-NTC k € k € Sweden, socio-economic welfare

Average welfare gain: 1816 k€ Average reduction in overloads: 82 MWh/h

Median welfare gain: -40 k€ Median reduction in overloads: 76 MWh/h

Border flows and Cross-border capacities

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

-300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500

Increase in welfare and reduction in overloads

Hourly results Average Median

Net reduction in overloads (NTC overloads - FB overloads) [MWh/h]

Net

incr

ease

in w

elfa

re (

FB w

elfa

re -

NTC

w

elfa

re)

[k€

]

The figure below shows the net increase in welfare against the net reduction in overloads when using FB instead of NTC. Each dot represents one hour of the week addressed in this report. Values in the quadrant A correspond to higher welfare and larger overloads with FB. Values in quadrant B correspond to higher welfare and smaller overloads with FB. Values in the quadrant C correspond to lower welfare and smaller overloads with FB. Values in the quadrant D correspond to lower welfare and larger overloads with FB.

A B

C D

The charts in the following pages show the capacities and flows on the borders between bidding areas. The green areas show the maximum and minimum capacities calculated with the flow-based method and blue areas with the NTC method. The green line shows the border flow calculated with the flow-based method and the blue line with the NTC method. For example, the green areas above the blue areas show hours when the flow-based method would enable more cross-border capacity compared to the NTC method.

16

Page 17: FB external report for w8, 2017 - Nordic Regional · 20-02-2017 21-02-2017 22-02-2017 23-02-2017 24-02-2017 25-02-2017 26-02-2017 FB-NTC k € k € Sweden, socio-economic welfare

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

1500

1000

500

0

500

1000

1500Fl

ow (M

Wh/

h)DK1-DK1_GE

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

600

400

200

0

200

400

600

800

Flow

(MW

h/h)

DK1-DK1_KontiSkan

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

1500

1000

500

0

500

1000

1500

Flow

(MW

h/h)

DK1-DK1_Skagerrak

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

600

400

200

0

200

400

600

Flow

(MW

h/h)

DK1-DK1_Storebælt

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

Page 18: FB external report for w8, 2017 - Nordic Regional · 20-02-2017 21-02-2017 22-02-2017 23-02-2017 24-02-2017 25-02-2017 26-02-2017 FB-NTC k € k € Sweden, socio-economic welfare

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

600

400

200

0

200

400

600

Flow

(MW

h/h)

DK2-DK2_Kontek

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

600

400

200

0

200

400

600

Flow

(MW

h/h)

DK2-DK2_Storebælt

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

1500

1000

500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Flow

(MW

h/h)

DK2-SE4

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

1000

500

0

500

1000

Flow

(MW

h/h)

FIN-FIN_Estlink

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

Page 19: FB external report for w8, 2017 - Nordic Regional · 20-02-2017 21-02-2017 22-02-2017 23-02-2017 24-02-2017 25-02-2017 26-02-2017 FB-NTC k € k € Sweden, socio-economic welfare

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

1000

500

0

500

1000

Flow

(MW

h/h)

FIN-FIN_FennoSkan

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

150

100

50

0

50

100

150

Flow

(MW

h/h)

FIN-FRE

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

200

100

0

100

200

300

Flow

(MW

h/h)

FIN-NO4

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

1500

1000

500

0

500

1000

1500

Flow

(MW

h/h)

FIN-SE1

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

Page 20: FB external report for w8, 2017 - Nordic Regional · 20-02-2017 21-02-2017 22-02-2017 23-02-2017 24-02-2017 25-02-2017 26-02-2017 FB-NTC k € k € Sweden, socio-economic welfare

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

1000

2000

3000

Flow

(MW

h/h)

NO1-NO2

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

Flow

(MW

h/h)

NO1-NO2_Skagerrak

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

1000

500

0

500

1000

Flow

(MW

h/h)

NO1-NO3

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

1000

2000

Flow

(MW

h/h)

NO1-NO5

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

Page 21: FB external report for w8, 2017 - Nordic Regional · 20-02-2017 21-02-2017 22-02-2017 23-02-2017 24-02-2017 25-02-2017 26-02-2017 FB-NTC k € k € Sweden, socio-economic welfare

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

3000

2000

1000

0

1000

2000

Flow

(MW

h/h)

NO1-SE3

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

800

600

400

200

0

200

400

600

800

Flow

(MW

h/h)

NO2-NO2_NorNed

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

1500

1000

500

0

500

1000

1500

Flow

(MW

h/h)

NO2-NO2_Skagerrak

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

2000

1000

0

1000

2000

Flow

(MW

h/h)

NO2-NO5

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

Page 22: FB external report for w8, 2017 - Nordic Regional · 20-02-2017 21-02-2017 22-02-2017 23-02-2017 24-02-2017 25-02-2017 26-02-2017 FB-NTC k € k € Sweden, socio-economic welfare

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

1500

1000

500

0

500

1000

Flow

(MW

h/h)

NO3-NO4

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

3000

2000

1000

0

1000

2000

3000

Flow

(MW

h/h)

NO3-NO5

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

1500

1000

500

0

500

1000

1500

Flow

(MW

h/h)

NO3-SE2

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

1000

500

0

500

1000

1500

Flow

(MW

h/h)

NO4-SE1

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

Page 23: FB external report for w8, 2017 - Nordic Regional · 20-02-2017 21-02-2017 22-02-2017 23-02-2017 24-02-2017 25-02-2017 26-02-2017 FB-NTC k € k € Sweden, socio-economic welfare

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

400

200

0

200

400

600Fl

ow (M

Wh/

h)NO4-SE2

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Flow

(MW

h/h)

SE1-SE2

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

7500

5000

2500

0

2500

5000

7500

10000

Flow

(MW

h/h)

SE2-SE3

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

1000

500

0

500

1000

Flow

(MW

h/h)

SE3-SE3_FennoSkan

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

Page 24: FB external report for w8, 2017 - Nordic Regional · 20-02-2017 21-02-2017 22-02-2017 23-02-2017 24-02-2017 25-02-2017 26-02-2017 FB-NTC k € k € Sweden, socio-economic welfare

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

800

600

400

200

0

200

400

600

800Fl

ow (M

Wh/

h)SE3-SE3_KontiSkan

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

2000

1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Flow

(MW

h/h)

SE3-SE4

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

600

400

200

0

200

400

600

Flow

(MW

h/h)

SE4-SE4_Baltic Cable

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

600

400

200

0

200

400

600

800

Flow

(MW

h/h)

SE4-SE4_NordBalt

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

Page 25: FB external report for w8, 2017 - Nordic Regional · 20-02-2017 21-02-2017 22-02-2017 23-02-2017 24-02-2017 25-02-2017 26-02-2017 FB-NTC k € k € Sweden, socio-economic welfare

2017-02-20 2017-02-21 2017-02-22 2017-02-23 2017-02-24 2017-02-25 2017-02-26

600

400

200

0

200

400

600

Flow

(MW

h/h)

SE4-SE4_SwePol Link

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation