faster, cheaper, cleaner, safer? autonomous vehicles ... · september 2018. faster, cheaper,...
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September 2018
Faster, cheaper, cleaner, safer?Autonomous vehicles, shared transportation, and the future of mobility
Copyright © 2018 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 2
Converging forces are transforming longstanding industry structures and dynamics
Maturing powertrain technologies
Lightweight materials
Rapid advances in connected vehicles
Emergence of autonomous vehicles
Shifts in mobility preferences
Source: Deloitte analysis1 Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2 Deloitte Global Automotive Consumer Study, 2017
Electric vehicle battery costs have fallen ~80% in 7 years.1 China, India, the UK, France, and others plan to limit sale of new ICE vehicles in the next 10-20 years
Stronger and lighter materials are reducing vehicle weight without sacrificing passenger safety
New vehicles are being outfitted with vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I), vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V), and communications technologies, so every car can know precisely where every other car is on the road
Autonomous drive technology is no longer a case of science fiction; the question is when and how will it become more mainstream and widely adopted
Younger generations are leading the way toward pay-per-use mobility in place of owning a car. Half of US-based ride-hailing users say it has caused them to question their need to own a car in the future2
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Stakes are high – with approximately $2 trillion in revenues collected annually by the current extended auto industry
Auto insurance
Auto financing
Radio advertising; outdoor advertising
Oil companies and gas stations
Fuel, licensing, and auto sales taxes; traffic enforcement; tolls; public transportation; parking
Rental vehicles; taxi and limo services; private parking garages
Emergency services and hospital costs; legal fees associated with accidents
Wholesale and dealer vehicle sales and service; suppliers; and mechanics
Aftermarket parts and service channel
Energy
$573B
Current extended automotive
industry revenues
~$2T1
Finance
$101BTransportation
$59B
Automotive
$735B
Media
$16B
Insurance
$205B
Medical& Legal$35B
Publicsector
$251B
Retail
$24B
1Total revenue is $1.99T. Source: Deloitte analysis based on IBISWorld Industry Reports, IHS, DOT, US Census, EIA, Auto News, TechCrunch. Current revenue represents 2014 figures (or earlier if 2014 data not available) in the United States.
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The result could be a new mobility ecosystem that provides substantial benefits
Consumer data provides the highest sources of value in the system
Taxation and public revenues shift from a fixed model to a more dynamic one
New predominantly “driverless” cargo transportation and delivery systems emerge
Vehicles are consumed through end-to-end mobility providers and less likely to be personally owned assets
Seamless multi-modal transportation becomes the new norm
Vehicles operate autonomously and nearly never crash
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Converging forces will give rise to the emergence of four future states of mobility, which will exist in parallel
Extent to which autonomous vehicle technologies become pervasive: • Depends upon several
key factors as catalysts or deterrents—e.g., technology, regulation, social acceptance
• Vehicle technologies will increasingly become "smart”; the human-machine interface shifts toward greater machine control
Extent to which vehicles are personally owned or shared:
• Depends upon personal preferences and economics
• Higher degree of shared ownership increases system-wide asset efficiency
Personal Shared
Aut
onom
ous
Drive
r
Future states of mobility
Vehicle ownership
Veh
icle
co
ntr
ol
Shared Autonomous
SharedDriver-Driven
Personally Owned Autonomous
Personally Owned Driver-Driven1 2
3 4
Asset efficiencyLow HighAss
iste
d
Fully autonomous drive means that the vehicle has full responsibility for controlling its operation. It is fundamentally different from the most advanced form of driver assist.
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Our forecasts estimate an increase in total miles traveled, a decline in overall vehicle sales, and faster shifts in urban centers towards AVs and shared vehicles
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
People Miles Driven by Future State
Personally owned driver-driven Shared driver-driven Personally owned autonomous Shared autonomous
2040: Passenger miles driven increases by 25% Urban
Rural
Perc
ent
of a
nnua
l mile
s dr
iven
, in
mill
ions
Ann
ual M
iles
Dri
ven
in M
illio
ns
Adoption by Geography
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Source: Scott Corwin, Nick Jameson, Craig Giffi, and Joe Vitale, Gearing for change: Preparing for transformation in the automotive ecosystem, Deloitte University Press, September 29, 2016.
Perc
ent
of a
nnua
l mile
s dr
iven
, in
mill
ions
Introduction of shared (2020) and personally-owned (2022)
autonomous vehicles
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Easter Sunday, Fifth Ave., New York City, 1900
Tony Seba, tonyseba.com, 2014
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Easter Sunday, Fifth Ave., New York City, 1913
Tony Seba, tonyseba.com, 2014
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There are a number of forces that will influence the rate at which the new mobility ecosystem takes shape
Forces of Delay or Acceleration
Public AttitudesHuman-machine interface, safety, shared economy
Technology DevelopmentEarly experiments, pilot programs
Regulation & GovernmentFederal, state and local policies
Privacy and SecurityCyber-security, communication protocols
Wall Street ValuationsTechnology investments, cost of capital projections
Employment ChangesDislocation effects, reactions, job retraining
Source: Corwin, Vitale, Kelly, Cathles, The future of mobility.
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Let us explore how people will likely experience a seamless intermodal journey in the future
…he is a millennial living just outside the city
…he is ready go home after a long day at work
…he wants to pick up groceries
Meet Ben…
Let’s explore his journey home and the supporting ecosystem
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The future of mobility: Ben’s journey
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Three key themes: Performance & Resilience, Vision & Leadership, and Service & Inclusion
The Deloitte City Mobility Index – A global initiative covering 54 cities in 2018
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Across our 54 cities, several key points stood out in the initial findings
1. What’s past is prologueHistory plays a role—but is not destiny
• Current transport systems are a result of decisions made over years
• Authorities must tackle and transform existing systems
• Cities can overcome past legacies with innovative approaches
http://www.deloitte.com/insights/city-mobility-index
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Across our 54 cities, several key points stood out in the initial findings (cont.)
2. Integration is keyInclude a wide range of players• Good coordination should exist
between different players:
−central/local,
−public/private,
−suburb/city,
−regulator/operator
• This makes it easier to join up
−Timetables
−Transport modes
−coverage
−payment systems
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Across our 54 cities, several key points stood out in the initial findings (cont.)
3. Cars do have a roleBut they must be managed• Can be utilized as part of wider,
integrated system
• Can play an important role in first-mile/last-mile journeys
• They must be “right-sized” for the local conditions:
− infrastructure,
−commuter culture,
−who they share the road with
http://www.deloitte.com/insights/city-mobility-index
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Chicago has an extensive and affordable public transport system that is well-integrated, secure, and easy to use. Still, the majority of Chicagoans choose to drive. It has strong leadership that promotes public transport as the preferred mode and ambitious targets for digital and technological options.
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To date, congestion and pollution have been managed, but with a growing population this will not always be the case. Columbus already scores poorly on quality-of-life indicators, and these problems are likely to be exacerbated in the future absent investment in more accessible and active modes of transport. The award of the Smart City Challenge fund has the potential to transform Columbus’s transport system.
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A new mobility ecosystem will emerge delivering seamless intermodal transportation faster, cheaper, and safer than today
Mobility Advisor
Opportunity Space
Mobility ManagerInfrastructure Enabler
Experience EnablerDevelopment and Mfg.
In-Transit Vehicle Experience Fleet Operations
Physical Infrastructure Energy Infrastructure Vehicles
Facilitating EcosystemsPricing, Payments and Insurance
Digital Infrastructure
Start Finish
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