FARM REPORT: JULY 2003

Editor’s note: We welcome a new contributor, Kent Henderson of Northwest Veterinary Associates. Kentis our dairy herd veterinarian and has also become active in our student programs. Hiscolumn, “Vet Corner, ” debuts this month. In it he’ll discuss animal health issues in generalwith a focus on issues affecting the Institute herd.

VET CORNER Since January 2003, Northwest Veterinary Associates, Inc. has been assisting Miner Institute’s dairy farmwith its herd health program. This has been a great opportunity for the practice to have access to nationallyrecognized research while playing a positive role in herd health and student education. As mentioned in last month’s Farm Report , Marco Turco has been concerned about the low fertility in theherd and, although progress has been made, he remains frustrated that his goals have not yet been reached. Withthe assistance of Genex, an ovsynch hormonal-control of breeding has been set up to try and improve the time tofirst conception. Identified animals are given an initial injection of GnRH. Seven days later these same animalsreceive a prostaglandin shot. At Day 9 (after the first GnRH), a second GnRH injection is administered and thenext day these animals are bred using AI. My review of the DC305 graphs of first breeding time has revealed anobviously excellent compliance with this ovsynch program. Two problems have been noticed upon analysis of pregnancy check results. At rectal palpation (for 38-44 daypregnancies), open cows are found nearing estrus indicating that they are NOT exhibiting recognizable heatsigns for re-breeding. Also, at this time, I have diagnosed open cows at mid-cycle which may indicate EarlyEmbryonic Death. A few cows have returned to heat after being called “early pregnant,” which prompted Marcoto request my assistance in investigating for the Lepto hardjo-bovine bacteria. A sampling of the urine of somerepeat breeders and aborted cows revealed that 2 of the 9 sampled animals were positive for Lepto. While Leptoshould not, at this early point, be blamed for all the herd’s reproductive problems, it may very well be theunderlying cause which is having a major effect on herd fertility. The Institute’s cows and heifers are currently vaccinated at close-up dry-cow movement and at post-calvingwith a 5-way Lepto vaccine. How then can Lepto be a problem in this herd? Recent research shows that even asmall Lepto infection in the kidney can mimic the antigen dose of vaccines. The immune system has thereforebecome accustomed to this low level of infection and does NOT produce antibodies when the vaccine is used.Currently, Lepto vaccines used in the U.S. are made from a Lepto strain that only produces two months ofprotection! In September 2003, a new Lepto vaccine from New Zealand will be released onto the market byPfizer, which is claimed to offer protection for between 9-12 months. Sources of infection also need to be evaluated. Lepto lives in the kidneys of all mammals, including rodents.So special attention needs to be paid to vermin control on farms, notably in feed areas, water sources, bunkersilos, Ag bags and even feed bunks. Note, however, that laboratories CANNOT yet demonstrate the presence ofLepto in water.

Dr Kent Henderson, DVMNorthwest Veterinary Associates, Inc.St Albans, VTcowdoc@adelphia.net

Miner Institute dairy facility construction is under way! Scheduled completion of the 275-cow facility,

including a research wing, is late fall.

SUMMER CROPS CHORES You already know most of the following, but we all can use an occasional reminder:

• Second cut reed canarygrass and orchardgrass will usually respond well to topdressed N or a moderatecoat of manure (3,000 gallons/acre, not 10,000). Timothy and bromegrass are less responsive tofertilization, especially during dry summer conditions. For top quality grass, don’t wait too longbetween first and second cuts—5 weeks is often enough when growing conditions are good.

• Applying N fertilizer to second cut grass often results in high quality forage that’s also low inpotassium—ideal for prefresh cows. You probably won’t need much of this forage so can pick andchoose the land you’ll use. For dry cow forage, use ammonium nitrate or ammonium sulfate. Don’t usemanure or straight urea, but a urea-ammonium sulfate blend is OK.

• Speaking of nitrogen, don’t forget to sidedress N on corn where needed. Unless you got heavy springrains that leached organic N from the soil, first year corn shouldn’t need supplemental N. For otherfield—it depends, which is why a PSNT (presidedress nitrate test) is so useful.

• Dollars are tight on almost all dairy farms, and one way to save money is to replace fertilizer withmanure. A good manure application program should eliminate the need for topdressed fertilizerphosphorus. You might still need potassium, but muriate of potash (0-0-60) is still the cheapest primarynutrient.

• Lime applications can often be delayed, but they can’t be avoided forever. If your soil pH is below 6.0,lime + manure may be a better investment than commercial fertilizer.

Ev Thomasthomas@whminer.com

WHAT’S HAPPENING ON THE FARM “My hands are small I know, but…,” wax the lyrics of a Jewel song. We may have a small steer herd, but…they are quickly becoming our pride and joy. With the price of beef skyrocketing because of the BSE scare inneighboring Canada, we are taking extra special care of our beef charges. By exploiting the spring grass, wehave reduced steer feed costs while seeing a happy increase in profit margins. Even young heifers (pre-breeding age) that were showing signs of that dreaded added winter-weight havebeen driven out to graze. We were a little concerned about them; notably as inevitably spring grass tends to behigh in rumen degradable protein. To fully utilize these lush pastures of canarygrass, orchardgrass and mixedalfalfa/clover, it is imperative that there are sufficient numbers of rumen bacteria to handle the sudden“dumping” of protein and that these bacteria have enough energy to fulfill their function. Without these, theprotein is simply turned into ammonia and excreted as urea. Now, I’ve heard whispered, surreptitious questions asking if Miner Institute is going to promote grazingdairy cattle. In short, ‘No!’ We are just looking at ways to maximize our profits and reduce our costs by takingadvantage of Nature’s seasonal ‘free’ grass bounty. And while, ‘Yes!’ I do advocate putting dry cows, over-weight heifers and raising steers on pastures there is no big move to turn into a non-free stall operation as yet.

Another way we use to try and “buffer” rising costs is to forward contract our corn meal from Cargill (whichis one of the three transnational companies that dominates the world market the other two are Bungi andDreyfus). This is a bit of a gamble, but by watching markets, revising historical trends and monitoring what ishappening in the Midwest’s large corn plantings you may be able to save a few precious dollars on each ton ofcorn. Although late last year we selected a six-month contract, I have chosen rather to sign a shorter three-monthcontract now and then re-look at inventory and early reports in August and October before speaking to oursupplier again. In the end it’s all about the notorious “Bottom Line.” Biting flies, mosquitoes and parasites are now regular visitors to the farm. Not only are they a nuisance, butthey also have the potential to transmit disease, open up wounds for possible infection and generally make thelife of the herdspeople working the animals unpleasant. For the steers and heifers outside, we feed an ad-lib flyand mineral block (do not supply any additional salt) that seems to be working wonders for those creatures.Indoors, we stick to a weekly spraying of all surfaces and apply a topical treatment of Cydectin every 20 days tofight both internal and external parasites, including the nasty mange lice that crop up occasionally. Happy,unmolested, comfortable animals are one of our main goals on the Institute’s farm and protecting them fromthese things is very important in our quest. The new dairy barn—this may be a topic for a whole other article if readers are interested in our progress, inwhat we learned, the mistakes, the successes and surprises and, where we are at this point. The woods around Miner are verdant now, new growth is everywhere, subtle plays of light create akaleidoscope of shadows and colors, yet, with the “business” of spring and summer, it’s easy to forget to lookpast the long hours of plowing, planting, cutting and chopping. It’s too easy to forget the grayness of the long,unforgiving winter, the bleakness of it all. I hope that all of us can persuade our frantic days to pause a moment,to look beyond the road, the smell of diesel, allergies and see what a blessing we have just now received fromthe natural world. Bask in the warmth, feel the sun on your face, relish the long days and try to simply be lazyfor a while. An hour will not make the hay dry faster, nor the seed sprout any quicker, but your tranquility andserenity will prove to be immediate.

Marco Turcoturco@whminer.com

I STILL HATE ORCHARDGRASS In 2001 we seeded 1 lb/acre of a supposedly late-maturing orchardgrass variety along with alfalfa and“annual” Italian ryegrass. The Italian ryegrass was a biennial and overran everything, while the orchardgrassnever amounted to much (at 1 lb/acre why would it, but that was the seeding rate recommended by the seedcompany). However, what orchardgrass did grow proved to be significantly earlier than the alfalfa—which haslong been one of the problems with orchardgrass. That spring we also established a trial comparing a new traffic-tolerant alfalfa variety (Ameristand 403T) anda standard, high-yielding variety (Pioneer 54V54). We seeded a single drill row of orchardgrass to separate the12-foot strips of each variety. This was a hard winter for alfalfa, but it was a real brute for orchardgrass sincemost of ours died. As you can see in the photo, the strip of dead orchardgrass is bordered on each side byhealthy alfalfa and reed canarygrass. Orchardgrass is susceptible to ice sheet damage (we had no ice sheets last winter), it winterkills more easilythan alfalfa, it matures ahead of alfalfa and, once headed, doesn’t hold quality worth a darn. These are just someof the reasons why I still hate orchardgrass. --E.T.

FROM THE PRESIDENT’S DESK—COMING DOWN THE ROAD What an exciting week! I just returned from the annual meeting of the American Dairy Science Associationheld in Phoenix. Dairy and animal scientists from industry and universities around the world met to discuss thelatest research findings in dairy cattle nutrition, management, physiology, breeding, and dairy food technology.With so many topics to choose from, I focused mostly on the presentations in dairy nutrition and forage use bycattle. Often, information presented at these meetings will be the “hot topics” coming down the road in one totwo years. So, I’d like to provide all of you a “heads up” on what was the most exciting research presented atthis year’s meeting.

There were several forage sessions with a major theme of how best to dovetail fiber and starchdigestion to improve performance. A multistate project evaluated the impact of corn grain moisture(20, 30, or 40% moisture) and time of ensiling (0, 35 or 120 days) for six different hybrids that rangedfrom vitreous (slow starch digestion) to floury (rapid starch digestion) endosperm. The research wasdone in Nebraska, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. The study showed that floury endospermhybrids (i.e. higher digestibility starch) and length of ensiling had a greater positive effect ondigestibility at higher grain moisture content. Longer time spent in the silo for high-moisture cornresulted in greater starch digestibility. Of course, we already knew that hybrid, moisture content, anddays of ensiling could impact starch digestion. But, this study finally gives us some concrete numbers,over a wide range of hybrids, to begin developing feeding strategies that fully capture the energyvalue of corn grain. In the near future, I expect that we will be feeding specific hybrids of corn graindepending on our forage resources, and we will no longer say that “corn is corn.” Another study conducted at Michigan State evaluated combinations of brown midrib corn silageand floury or vitreous endosperm corn grain. Remember that floury grains will be more digestible andthat vitreous grains contain less digestible starch. Because brown midrib corn silage contains highlydigestible fiber, the researchers wanted to determine if highly digestible fiber worked best with slowlyor more rapidly digesting starch. In a nutshell, the combination of floury starch with brown midrib cornsilage resulted in the greatest fat-corrected milk production. Research trials like this one will allow usto match silage and grain sources so that we take full advantage of our knowledge of both fiber andstarch digestion patterns to optimize milk production. Another study examined the differences among brown midrib ( bmr) hybrids of forage sorghum.Now, not very much sorghum is grown and fed in the northeast, but the real point here is that whenwe refer to “brown midrib” forages (corn, sorghum, sorghum- sudangrass) we really may be speakingtoo broadly. This trial showed clearly that not all brown midrib hybrids are the same in fiber digestibilityor in the milk production response from cows fed the various hybrids. In fact, one bmr sorghum hybrid(so-called bmr-6) resulted in milk production equal to cows fed corn silage! Another bmr hybrid (bmr-18) still outperformed the normal sorghum (which incidentally fed like a fence post) but did not equalcorn silage. The bottom line here is that when someone tells you a brown midrib hybrid will give youmore milk–-be sure to ask to see the data, because not all bmr hybrids are equal. Remember that one of our overall goals as dairy producers and nutritionists is to increase theconsumption of digestible fiber (NDF). The trick is to put together a system that can deliver highlydigestible fiber consistently. There are exciting new forage and feeding technologies on the horizon,and—even better—we are learning how best to put together grain and forage to optimize rumendigestion and cow productivity. Coming down the road are tremendous opportunities to capture moreenergy and nutrients from the forages we feed our dairy cows! Rick Grant grant@whminer.com

ALFALFA WINTER POSTMORTEM There’s a big difference between winter damaged and healthy alfalfa. This was evident this spring as winter-ravaged plants struggled to survive. Some survived only to produce a poor crop, while some recovered quitewell. At Miner Institute we had several third-year fields with first cut yields that were less than half what theywere in 2002. First cut alfalfa that yielded poorly will not stage a miraculous recovery and many of the injured plantsprobably won’t survive the summer. Unless you have a good stand of forage grass in the winter-damaged field,don’t count on much for the balance of the season. These fields shouldn’t be reseeded to alfalfa this summerbecause of autotoxicity. There’s some disagreement as to the minimum time required between plowing up theold stand and reseeding. Research has shown that while only 2 or 3 weeks is required to eliminate the effects ofautotoxicity on germination, the effects on root development and forage yield can persist much longer. Also of concern is the possibility—not yet confirmed—that some of the winterkill was caused by brownroot rot, a fungus disease that’s hurt many alfalfa fields in northern Wisconsin and wiped out stands inWyoming. This disease attacks alfalfa during the winter when plants are dormant. There aren’t any resistantalfalfa varieties. Affected fields shouldn’t be replanted to alfalfa or planted to red clover for several years—at

least. Cornell plant pathologist Gary Bergstrom tells me that he’s seen brown root rot in NY but doesn’t know ifit’s the cause of our recent problems. Gary has seen another winter crown rot in NY alfalfa, but feels thatFusarium crown and root rot complex is much more prevalent and is a large contributor to winterkill in standstwo or more years after seeding.

--E.T.

FARMERS AS INNOVATORS Farmers have a wonderful ability to improvise, to make temporary or permanent repairs using whatever’shandy, which is often baling twine and duct tape. (The difference between a temporary and a permanent repair isthat once the thing is fixed the repair is permanent for as long as it lasts, at which point it was a temporaryrepair.) What brings this up is a recent exchange on the Internet involving a farmer with a sick engine. He wastold to use a stethoscope to locate the offending noise. One frugal farmer suggested that instead of spending $10for a stethoscope, using a wooden yardstick: “Just put one end to your ear and the other where you want tocheck the noise.” Another suggested using “a long-bladed screwdriver, with the tip touching the part and thehandle to your head.” Well. I don’t know about you, but if I dropped by to see a farmer and found him stooped over an engineblock, with one end of a yardstick down in the guts of the engine and the other end to his ear or with a bigscrewdriver stuck twixt engine and ear, I’d get back in my car and leave—very quietly.

--E.T.

OUT THERE BIOTIN is rather an expensive product ($26,000 per ton). On the upside though is that you use very little ofit. Recent trials in Europe have shown that by adding just 20mg of biotin per day to feed there is a noticeableincrease in milk yield (up to 2 liters or 4.5 lbs per animal) in high producing dairy cows. Should farmers—in these tough economic times—use biotin? According to the European researchers (andremember that especially British and Irish dairymen are facing even worse milk prices than Americans) the costbenefit ratio is 1:20. At current costs, the amount fed would average only about 3 cents per cow per day.Therefore, claim the scientists, not only will profitability increase, with the added benefit of improved hoofhealth, but also milk yield will increase IMMEDIATELY as the response to biotin is said to be rapid. WOOD to keep udders clean? Sounds bizarre to say the least, but leave it to the Swiss—makers of cuckooclocks, chocolate, international banking and 800 years of peace—to find a way to use this natural product. Arecent article in International Dairy Topics [Vol 2 #3 (2003)] highlighted the Swiss use of wood wool for thelast 40 years. Using certified timber (they did not specify species), the claim is that the wood wool isenvironmentally compatible, germ free, dust and splinter free, and free of any preservatives, making it readilyacceptable to the stringently enforced environmental laws in Western Europe. With the vast secondary-growthwoodlands in the Northeast and ever-more enforced EPA legislation, perhaps we should start researching the useof this natural product. E.COLI 0157 has had its source within ruminants accurately pinpointed. Microbiologists at the University ofEdinburgh (Scotland, UK) have found that the majority of the bacterium is located within the last fewcentimeters of the bovine’s gastrointestinal tract, just inside the anus. This is a dramatic break-through in termsof herd health. INTAKE potential and digestibility are crucial considerations when selecting corn hybrids to be planted forsilage making. European Union nutritionists and farmers have, for several years, been harping on the fact thatthey believe that “Intake Potential” is AS important as energy content when assessing forage value. Currentthinking is that the higher the energy content of the corn, the better the intake potential. This translates to, “Thelower the bulk of the maize (corn) the less the space it takes up in the rumen and the more the cow can eat.” Asall dairymen know, higher feed intake usually converts to higher milk production assuming, of course, that youhave selected the correct corn hybrids, grown it well, and harvested and stored it correctly.

--M.T.

CROP RESEARCH SUMMARIES• A preliminary study at the University of Wisconsin indicates that wheel traffic on alfalfa fields can cut

yields as much as 70 percent, with average yield loss of 30 percent. Some new, traffic-resistant alfalfavarieties may reduce damage.

• Most alfalfa variety trials are only run for 3-4 years, then plowed up. What if you’re one of the lucky oneswho can keep alfalfa going for 5 years: Would the results for the 5th year differ meaningfully from the 3-4year results? North Dakota agronomists asked that question, and found that no, 3-4 year results are quiteindicative of what happens in year 5. Source: dmeyer@ndsuext.nodak.edu

• Agronomists at the Ohio State University (State motto: Don’t judge us by Cleveland) grew mixtures ofquackgrass and either white clover or orchardgrass at various ratios of quackgrass to the improved species.Mixtures of quackgrass and white clover yielded higher than pure stands of either species. Therefore, a littlequackgrass in your clover seeding isn’t the worst thing that can happen. However, the quackgrass-orchardgrass combination didn’t fare well. Source: bultemeier.2@osu.edu

NEW RESEARCH REPORT AVAILABLE Miner Institute Research Report No. 03-02: “The Development of a System for Testing the Impact of SilageTreatments on Silage Quality, Fermentation Characteristics and Stability of Silages Harvested and Stored inNorthern NY” is available on request. Contact Julie Layne at our office or layne@whminer.com

PESTS Last month The Bride and I made a day trip to Boston, stopping at the Lee Rest Area on the MassachusettsTurnpike because by that time we both really needed to, uh, rest. While in the region I pointed out the famousLee Lime quarries (T.B. always loves to see fascinating points of local interest). But I digress: Upon resumingour trip I noticed a Colorado potato beetle in the middle of the driver’s side of the windshield. I figured he’dsoon be gone as we accelerated to a high rate of speed (but of course not exceeding 65 mph, the maximum legalspeed in the Commonwealth). Wrong…the little fellow clung bravely to the windshield for over 20 miles inwhat must have seemed to him as one heck of a windstorm. By now you’re wondering where this is heading. So am I, but here goes: Mother Nature has equipped theColorado potato beetle with impressive defenses, including what appears to be the ability to stick to a potatoplant in anything short of a tornado. Weed and insect pests also have the ability to evolve or otherwise developdefenses to some of man’s best attempts to eradicate them: Examples are resistant diamondback moths on Btcanola, resistant pink bollworm on Bt cotton, triazine-resistant lambsquarters and smooth pigweed, andglyphosate-resistant ryegrass and waterhemp. On the weed front it’s too late to prevent triazine-resistantbroadleaf weeds; we lost that battle 20 years ago following the persistent use of atrazine, wrongly believing it tobe the total solution to weed control in corn. We’re in danger of losing another battle, this one involving glyphosate (Roundup, Touchdown, etc.). Thisherbicide has been in use for many years, but on some farms its use has become much more common with thedevelopment of Roundup Ready soybeans and corn. Just as triazine-resistant broadleaf weeds evolved becauseatrazine was such a good, cheap herbicide, glyphosate resistance is developing because it’s such an effectiveherbicide in a wide range of crop production systems. For some there’s the temptation to buy nothing exceptRoundup Ready corn hybrids and Roundup Ready soybean varieties, using nothing except glyphosate. You should resist this temptation. Unlike the regulations prohibiting the use of Bt corn hybrids on your entirecorn acreage, there’s nothing illegal about using glyphosate as your total weed control program. It’s legal, but itisn’t a good idea. Either rotate part of your land to non-Roundup Ready varieties each year or use glyphosateplus another herbicide. In the past two years the Roundup Ready corn program at the Institute has includedglyphosate and either a low rate of atrazine or a half rate of Prowl. This doesn’t add much to the cost andprovides two completely different modes of herbicide action. Glyphosate resistance may eventually occur in theNortheastern U.S., but it won’t start on our farm.

The Crops Dude

DAIRY MILESTONES• 1611—Dairy cows arrive in Jamestown Colony, Virginia.• 1780—First use of artificial insemination.

• 1873—First silo constructed, Illinois.• 1884—Milk bottle invented, Potsdam, NY.• 1895—Pulsator invented.• 1938—First bulk tanks used on farms• 1951—Computers first used to calculate DHI records.• 1954—Frozen semen used for first time.• 1964—Plastic milk jug commercially introduced.• 1974—Nutrition labeling of fluid milk.

TIMELY QUOTES• "Mowing is tedious and can be avoided by wetting down the yard with a fine spray of #2 heating oil. Or

during the winter months you can sprinkle rock salt on the whole thing." P.J. O’Roarke• "The major difference between a thing that might go wrong and a thing that cannot possibly go wrong is that

when a thing that cannot possibly go wrong goes wrong it usually turns out to be impossible to get at orrepair." Douglas Adams, revealing one of the laws of computers and programming in The Hitchhiker'sGuide to the Galaxy.

THINGS TO DO THIS FALL:

Hoof Trimming Clinic In collaboration with Dr. Jan Shearer, Extension Dairy Veterinarian from the University of Florida, MinerInstitute will offer a hoof care clinic this fall on Wednesday, October 22 through Friday, October 24.Participants will receive classroom training in the morning on Wednesday, followed by practice trimmingcadaver feet in the afternoon. Half of the participants will return on Thursday and the other half will return onFriday to hone their knife sharpening skills followed by trimming feet on live cows. Cost for the clinic is$300/person with lunch and other materials included. Class size will be limited to ensure that participants spendas much time as possible with Dr. Shearer. To register for this clinic contact Wanda Emerich at 518-846-7121x117 or Emerich@whminer.com.

Dairy Day at Miner Institute Dairy Day at Miner Institute will be Thursday, December 4 . Commercial exhibits open at 10:00 AM, withthe speakers’ program beginning at 11:00 AM and finishing at 3:00 PM. Our featured guest speaker this yearwill be Dr. Roger Palmer, Associate Professor of Dairy Science and Extension Dairy Systems ManagementSpecialist from the Department of Dairy Science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Dr. Palmer will bediscussing his research on cow preference for freestall bedding surfaces. A wide variety of surfaces in additionto sand will be covered in this discussion. Other speakers for the day will include staff from Miner Institute: Dr.Rick Grant, Ev Thomas and Dr. Phillip Mandebvu. If you have any questions regarding Dairy Day at MinerInstitute, please contact Wanda Emerich at 518-846-7121 x117 or Emerich@whminer.com.

AGRIBUSINESS NOTES! Monsanto expects U.S. gross profit from its seeds and seed traits businesses to surpass the profit

from the sale of Roundup. Monsanto now dedicates 80% of it research and development money toseed research.

! The Appleton, Wisconsin Board of Education will eliminate candy and soda machines from highschool grounds beginning this fall. (Elementary and secondary schools already ban the machines.)They’ll be replaced by milk, water and fruit juice machines.

! YieldGard Rootworm corn is apparently performing well in its first year of commercial release.About 200 seed companies are licensed to sell rootworm resistant corn hybrids; expect quite a bitmore seed to be on the market for the 2004 planting season. It’s estimated that rootworm resistantcorn hybrids will eventually lower insecticide usage by about 14 million pounds per year.

! Castor & Pollux is now selling “Organix Canine Formula” dog kibble, made with certified organicchicken, brown rice and flax. Heaven forfend that Fifi would have to eat kibble containing chickenraised on corn grown using those nasty commercial fertilizers.

! Monsanto continues to crack down on farmers who save the company’s genetically engineeredseeds that they grew. A Tennessee farmer was recently sentenced to eight months in prison and hasbeen ordered to pay Monsanto over $1.7 million for 41 tons of genetically engineered cotton andsoybean seed he saved…and his civil case isn’t over yet. The judge didn’t make the farmer report toprison until after planting season.

! National Geographic put an armored device containing cameras in the path of a South Dakotatornado (State Motto: Closer than North Dakota), hoping to get an inside view. The remains werefound stuck in mud more than 400 feet away, with all the device’s glass ports smashed and thecameras ruined. Final score: Tornado 1, National Geographic 0.

CLOSING COMMENTThe 50-50-90 rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there's a 90% probability you'llget it wrong.