fallon brainfood: fall0nylitics 2.1
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"Fall0nylitics 2.1: 17 Things You Probably Don’t Know About Online Advertising (And 1 Thing You Probably Do)"Did you know that 80% of clicks are done by 20% of people—and they’re probably not your target? That the biggest impact of online display ads could be on search? The explosion of data available to digital marketers often creates as much confusion as opportunity. This presentation aims to dispel the confusion so you can focus on seizing the opportunity.Join Marty Kihn, Director of Strategic Analysis at Fallon, (http://www.fallon.com/blog/news/fallon-adds-depth-to-digital/) as he breaks down the most important things for marketers and creatives—and not just digital creatives—to know about online advertising. Using case studies and the results of recent findings in the field, Marty lays out the key counter-intuitive insights we should know to make smarter decisions online. Learn who’s clicking, why landing pages matter, and how much of a difference the creative really makes.In addition, Marty introduces Fallon's own developing campaign optimization and indexing tool. Look for an announcement of this innovative open source solution in the coming months.Whether you are in charge of making digital investment decisions or are involved in optimizing specific campaigns, you'll find information you can use in this presentation. In addition, Marty presents his data sources and is available to talk about additional details and implication of the proprietary case studies.Brainfood is a series of presentations developed by thought leaders at Fallon that started several years ago. Brainfood's wide-ranging topics explore trends, innovations, business issues, and opportunities for marketers and brands. Moreover, Brainfood offers a chance to come together and engage in a stimulating discussion on a variety of interesting topics that affect our business. Check out previous Fallon Brainfood presentations at http://www.slideshare.net/group/we-are-fallon.TRANSCRIPT
Fallon Worldwide “Brainfood” POV
“17 Things You May Not Know About Online Advertising (And 1 Thing You Probably Do)”
January 25, 2011
I’m here today to talk about analytics in the context of creative digital advertising
• Creative agencies (like mine) are founded on the concept of “creative leverage”—that big ideas can work harder than big budgets.
• Analytics as a discipline has been driven by the explosion of data available online.
• To succeed in digital, good ideas are not good enough – they need to be supported, informed and changed by numbers.
Today I’m going to present 17 surprising facts about online advertising culled from recent studies and client work – starting with one thing you probably know . . .
Online advertising (OLA) (n.) – “a thing that seems to be getting less effective and more expensive”
$25B
$20
$15
$10
$5
US Online Ad Spend
($)
0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
0.50%
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
Avg. OLA CTR (%)
0
Source: Fallon analysis; Google Benchmarks; Forrester
#1. Digital spend is still too low.
• This is the first of the “17 Things You May Not Know About Online Advertising” . . .
Internet media budgets do not reflect how consumers actually spend their time.
Source: Dynamic Logic MarketNorms, 2008, Fixed frequency level of 1. Campaigns using online display advertising of any format.
Display ads really do impact brand metrics.
Brand Impact of Online Display (Control v. Exposed)
#2. 80% of clicks are done by 20% of people.
CLICKERS
Online clickers follow the 80/20 (Pareto) rule.
“Despite only accounting for 6% of the total Internet population, heavy clickers accounted for 50% of clicks in the month.” ComScore
Source: comScore Inc., custom analysis, total US online population, XPC Persons Panel, July 2007 data period Note: “Heavy” clickers defined as 4+ clicks on online advertising per month; “Moderate” = 2-3 clicks; “Light” = <1 click per month
#3. Clickers are probably NOT your best customers.
“Natural Born Clickers”
• Age: 25-44
• Lower income: $20-40K
• 2x more spend online
• Heavy Internet use:
5X higher time on site
8X more pages per visitor vs. online pop
• Non-clickers visit: portals, search, news, finance
• Heavy clickers visit: gambling, job searching, games … and porn*
* Just a guess
Source: comScore Inc., custom analysis, total US online population, XPC Persons Panel, July 2007 data period Note: “Heavy” clickers defined as 4+ clicks on online advertising per month; “Moderate” = 2-3 clicks; “Light” = <1 click per month
Clickers Are Generally Less Credit Worthy.
• Financial services client case study
• Users who were exposed but did NOT click were approved 180% more often than users who clicked
• “Casino” mentality
• More leisure time = More time to click
Source: Publicis financial services client case study (2007-2008)
Clicked Control
Approval Rates
179% Lift
Exposed
Financial Services Client View-Through Study
#4. Your best customers may be invisible.
The Cookie Deletion Dilemma: Overstated Reach but Understated Frequency.
Based on a comScore study of Yahoo and DoubleClick cookies:
• 30% of Internet users delete their cookies in a month
• These deleters do so an average of 4x per month
• True for 1st party (e.g., NYT sign-in) and 3rd party (e.g., ad server) cookies
Up to 2.5x overstatement of “unique visitors”
Understatement of campaign ROI
Worse for higher-end and technology brands
#5. 80% of OLA’s effectiveness has nothing to do with the CLICK.
It’s been conclusively shown across many industries that banners impact people who don’t click—like TV.
0.0000% 0.0020% 0.0040% 0.0060% 0.0080% 0.0100% 0.0120% 0.0140% 0.0160% 0.0180% 0.0200%
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Length in Days of Advertising Effect
Con
vers
ion
Prob
abili
ty (H
azar
d)
Red Baseline = conversion probability for days 15 - 60
Days 0 - 5: 341% lift over baseline
Days 5 - 10: 124% lift over baseline Days 10 - 15: 94% lift over baseline
0.0000% 0.0020% 0.0040% 0.0060% 0.0080% 0.0100% 0.0120% 0.0140% 0.0160% 0.0180% 0.0200%
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Length in Days of Advertising Effect
Con
vers
ion
Prob
abili
ty (H
azar
d)
Red Baseline = conversion probability for days 15 - 60
Days 0 - 5: 341% lift over baseline
Days 5 - 10: 124% lift over baseline Days 10 - 15: 94% lift over baseline
Length in Days of Advertising Effect
Con
vers
ion
Prob
abili
ty (H
azar
d)
Red Baseline = conversion probability for days 15 - 60
Days 0 - 5: 341% lift over baseline
Days 5 - 10: 124% lift over baseline Days 10 - 15: 94% lift over baseline
Client Example: Latency Window
0.00%
0.02%
0.04%
0.06%
0.08%
0.10%
0.12%
0.14%
Ad Exposed Control
VT Non - Incremental
VT Incremental 15.7% Lift*
Click - Based
Net
Yie
ld b
y U
niqu
e U
ser
Conversions Acquired
0.00%
0.02%
0.04%
0.06%
0.08%
0.10%
0.12%
0.14%
VT Non - Incremental
VT Incremental 15.7% Lift*
Click - Based
Net
Yie
ld b
y U
niqu
e U
ser
Conversions Acquired Client Example: VT* Incrementality
* VT = View-through, defined as post-impression activity observed among users who were exposed to a display ad but did not click
#6. Most of a banner’s effect is probably on search.
Effect of Display Ads on Search by Industry.
Source: comScore, “How Online Advertising Works: Whither the Click?” Jan. 2009, presentation for ARF [meta-study of 200]; Specific Media study of 12 months. * Publicis client case study (2008-09)
Observed Lift for Seachers Exposed to Banner Ads vs. Control
+206%
+144%
+125%
+69%
#7. Same with TV.
Source: Omniture Inc (The Omniture Summit 2009, p8); case study client name suppressed
Search Reacts to Television Advertising.
TV GRPs vs. Search Clicks for National Brand
#8. Never do display without search.
Paid Search + Display Works Better Than Either Channel Alone.
Incremental Impact on Offline Sales per (’000) Exposed
Source: comScore, “How Online Advertising Works: Whither the Click?” Jan. 2009, presentation for ARF
Search & Display
Search Only
Display Only
#9. Impact is largely determined by your industry.
Display Ads’ Impact on Site Visitation by Industry.
Advertiser Site Reach
(Weeks 1-4 After First Exposure)
Source: comScore, “How Online Advertising Works: Whither the Click?” Jan. 2009, presentation for ARF
#10. Rich media may not work the way you think it does.
Rich Media can work for aided awareness, but it may be distracting/confusing the brand’s message.
Rich Media with Video has the MOST Impact on Aided Brand Awareness…
…But is significantly LESS Effective at Impacting Message Association
Source: Dynamic Logic MarketNorms Study (2008)
#11. Banners are often less important than LANDING PAGES.
Most people who click don’t make it to the landing page.
Drivers of Drop-off:
• Cookie rejection • Long load times • Natural defection
(user clicks stop, back, or close window)
• Connectivity issues • Improper tagging
Source: DFA reporting Jan. 2009; Fallon analysis
Banner Click-to-Quote Start Traffic for Insurance Advertiser
(Click to Quote Start Traffic) 376,426
(263,882)
(111,886)
658
-70.1%
-29.7%
(-99.4% of LP traffic)
Landing Pages Matter: One of these options drove a 20-25% better response rate than the others.
• Driven to the application
• Result: Performed the worst among all variations
Landing Pages Tested
• Driven to a product-specific detail page
• Result: Performed the best
• Significantly higher (double-digit) response rate
• Driven to less detail around more card products
• Result: Depressed responses more than 20% vs. single-product page
Source: Confidential client analysis
#12. Landing pages need to MIRROR your creative.
Landing Pages must register as “not a mistake” <1 second after loading, or the user will bounce.
Visual Consistency
Contextual Consistency
Keyword: iPod
Keyword: MP3 Player
• Further down the funnel
• Transactional key word • Driven to the iPod mall
• Higher up in the funnel – less transactional
• Key words are made visual
• Messaging expands & adds brand and info elements
• Identical visual element is the link
#13. If you want good response, customize your landing page.
Different Targets = Different Landing Pages.
Florida drivers
Interactive Cross-sell Tabs (Car, Home, Boat)
Texas drivers
“Welcome to your new life” – Movers
Savings Message – Students
Discount for Military
Alumni “could save even more” Find an Agent
OR get a quote online
“Early Bird Special” – Seniors
“Review Your Quote” – Banner for
quote abandoners
Examples of Landing Pages with images and content tied to a customer group
#14. Load times trump everything.
Longer load times may be the single biggest driver of online response rates
* Total responses (#) / Total impressions from online media (paid search and display). Does not include conversion rate or quality.
Total Waiting-to-Load Time (Click to Quote Start – Paid Search Only, seconds)
Response Rate Index*
10
15
20
30
15 10 5 0 20
0
Response Rates vs. Load Times
#15. The only way to measure true impact is to set up a test in advance.
Use cookie-level log files (from ad server) to differentiate between conversions that would have occurred naturally, versus those influenced by the online media.
Appropriate latency window and attribution percentage is decided.
Web Audience
Test Group- Views Ad
Control Group- Views PSA (not Ad) - Runs on same sites/placements
View (no click)
Click
View (no click)
Responses and
Conversions
Brand Banner
Post-View tests can be set up relatively easily through an ad server like DoubleClick.
#16. If you fail to plan campaign measurement—plan to fail.
Best in class digital players start their measurement process well before assets are built.
#17. Creative can be less important than other factors in digital.
OLA and Paid Search often function more like Direct Mail than above-the-line advertising (e.g., TV).
Value of Offer 40%
Targeting 40%
Creative 20% Targeting & List Selection
Carefully select and cultivate customer and prospect lists
Value of Offer The ideal DM offer: - Fulfills a perceived need - Conveys strong perceived value (compared to competitors) - Is unique - Is practical - Has a clear connection with brand
Creative Elements - Hooks to provoke immediate response (sample, etc.) - Bullets, lists, dashes to catch skimmers - Headline / “Johnson Box” above letter salutation outlining key benefit - Clear call-to-action to drive response
Source: CRM Trends; confidential DM client study (2008)
Impact of Different Elements on Prospect Response to DM
Bonus #18. But great creative + great product always wins . . .
Thanks.
[email protected] office: 612.758.2748