Falling Out of the Lead Tracking High-Achievers Through High School and Beyond

Christina Theokas,

The Education Trust

The Education Trust

WHO WE ARE The Education Trust works for the high

academic achievement of all students, pre-kindergarten through college.

Our goal is to close the gaps in opportunity and achievement that consign far too many young people--especially those from low-income families or who are black, Latino, or American Indian--to lives on the margins of the American

mainstream.

Research and Data Analysis: We analyze local, state, and national data to build a broader understanding of achievement and opportunity gaps and the actions needed to close them. We draw lessons from schools and districts that are dispelling the myth that that there is little schools can do to help students overcome the barriers of poverty and discrimination.

Policy and Advocacy: We participate actively in national and state policy debates, bringing lessons learned from our research and data analyses to build the case for policies that advance equity and excellence.

WHAT WE DO

Progress at the low end: Over time, race and income gaps at the below basic level have been narrowing.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Pe

rce

nt

Be

low

Bas

ic

Percent Below Basic, 4th Grade Math, National Public, by Race

Black

Latino

White

25

8

18

7

We see the same basic trends when we account for poverty status.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Pe

rce

nt

Be

low

Bas

ic

Percent Below Basic, 4th Grade Math, National Public, by Race, FRL Eligible

Black

Latino

White

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Pe

rce

nt

Be

low

Bas

ic

Percent Below Basic, 4th Grade Math, National Public, by Race, FRL Ineligible

Black

Latino

White

5

9

13

8

Gaps at the proficient level have remained relatively stable, despite improvements among most groups.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Pe

rce

nt

Pro

fici

en

t

Percent Proficient- 4th Grade Math, National Public, by Race

Black

Latino

White

22

5

20

7

Progress at the high end: Growth for some, gaps have grown.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Pe

rce

nt

Ad

van

ced

Percent Advanced, 4th Grade Math, National Public, by Race

Black

Latino

White4

8

1

Widening race gaps at the advanced level have been pronounced among higher-income students.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Pe

rce

nt

Ad

van

ced

Percent Advanced, 4th Grade Math, National Public, by Race, Low-income

Black

Latino

White

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Pe

rce

nt

Ad

van

ced

Percent Advanced, 4th Grade Math, National Public, by Race, FRL Ineligible

Black

Latino

White

8

3

Gaps at the high end in High School

The gap at the 90th percentile is larger than the gap at the 10th percentile in 12th grade, the opposite is true in elementary and middle school.

Major Takeaways

#1: Achievement gaps are not the product of uniformly high achievement among some groups vs. uniformly low achievement among others; they exist along the achievement spectrum.

#2: Improvement at the advanced level of performance has been restricted to white and more advantaged students and in high school little progress has been made.

#3: Race gaps do not disappear after considering poverty.

#4: We will never close the achievement gap if we only pursue a bring- the-bottom-up strategy. We need to focus on equity across the achievement spectrum.

Who are we studying?

• Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS:2002)

• Students were first interviewed as sophomores in 2002 and have been followed periodically through 2012.

• Data are representative of roughly 2.5 million high school students.

• Some Definitions: • High-achieving students: Those who scored in the top quartile on a math and

reading assessment in 10th grade

• Socioeconomic status (SES): A Measure of multiple background characteristics, including parental income, parental education, and parental occupational status • High-SES: Highest quartile of the SES distribution

• Low-SES: Lowest quartile of the SES distribution

If students were coming into high school with identical preparation, we would see 25% of each group performing in the top quartile of achievers. But instead, we see this:

41% 39%

17% 14%

6%

11%

32%

35%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Black Hispanic Asian White

Pe

rce

nt

of

Stu

de

nts

Top and Bottom Quartile of Achievement (Reading/Math Composite), by Race, Sophomore Year

Lowest Quartile ofAchievement (10th grade)

Highest Quartile ofAchievement (10th grade)

Troubling gaps exists for socioeconomic status as well.

39%

25%

17%

8% 10%

19%

29%

48%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Low SES 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile High SES

Pe

rce

nt

of

Stu

de

nts

Top and Bottom Quartile of Achievement (Reading/Math Composite), by SES, Sophomore Year

Lowest Quartile ofAchievement (10th grade)

Highest Quartile ofAchievement (10th grade)

Initially low-achieving students were VERY unlikely to meet college-ready benchmarks, levels increase with starting achievement level.

5.8%

11.9%

49.2%

92.4%

3.9% 8.7%

34.3%

80.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Initially low-achieving 2nd quartile 3rd quartile Initially high-achieving

Percent Meeting ACT Benchmarks, by Initial Achievement Level

Composite (>=21)

Math (>=22)

Over half of initially low-achieving students do not attend any postsecondary, compared to 1 in 10 initially high-achieving students.

55%

36%

22% 10%

45%

64%

78% 90%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Lowest achievementQuartile

2nd achievementquartile

3rd achievementquartile

Highest achievementquartile

Ever Attended Postsecondary by Incoming Sophomore Achievement

Yes

No

The Initially low achieving students who go on to postsecondary education are far more likely to attend a 2 year or less college.

74%

60%

42%

19%

15%

16%

14%

9%

10%

20%

32%

35%

1% 4% 13%

38%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Lowest achievementQuartile

2nd achievementquartile

3rd achievementquartile

Highest achievementquartile

Selectivity of 1st Postsecondary Institution by Incoming Sophomore Achievement

4-year highly selective

4-year moderately selective

4-year inclusive

Less than 2-year or 2-year

At a minimum, if students begin high school as high achievers, schools need to ensure these students maintain, even accelerate their skills.

Course-Taking in High School

Initially High-Achieving Students of Color: Black, white, and Hispanic students are about as likely to reach a course beyond Algebra II and

calculus.

1% 4% 10%

4%

13%

15%

16%

57% 48%

47%

24% 27% 33%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Black Hispanic White

Highest Math, High Achieving Students, by Race

Calculus

Trig/Precalc/Adv

Algebra II

Alg I/Geometry

No math/low academic

Initially High-Achieving Low-SES Students: Low-SES students are significantly less likely to reach calculus than similarly performing high

SES students.

7% 3%

19%

11%

45%

44%

29%

42%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Low SES (lowest quartile) High SES (highest quartile)

Highest Math, High Achieving Students, by SES

Calculus

Trig/Pre-calc/Adv

Algebra II

Alg I/Geometry

No math or low academic

Results are similar for science course-taking, AP/IB course-taking, and the percent of

students completing an academic concentration.

AP Outcomes

High-achieving students of color and low-SES students pass a smaller share of the AP tests they take than high-achieving white and high-SES students.

36%

51%

68%

45%

73%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Black Latino White Low-SES High SES

Pe

rce

nt

of

AP

Te

sts

Percent of AP Tests that Receive a Score of 3 or Higher, High-Achieving Students, by Race and SES

Academic GPA

Initially high-achieving black and Hispanic students receive lower grades in their academic courses, on average, than

initially similar white and Asian students.

2.9 2.97 3.24

3.09 3.3

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Black Hispanic White Low SES High SES

Aca

de

mic

GPA

Academic GPA, High-Achieving Students, by Race and SES

What does this mean for initially high-achieving students? White students are more than 2x as likely as similar black students to earn an A

average in their academic courses.

1% 2% 1%

22% 23%

12%

58% 46%

45%

19% 29%

42%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Black Hispanic White

Academic GPA, High-achieving Students, by Race

A average

B average

C average

D or lower

Grades are a complicated measure, capturing achievement, study habits, participation, and teacher perceptions, among other elements.

Research can help unpack the trends we see:

• One study found that black students receive lower GPAs than their academic preparation would seem to warrant, while the opposite is true of white students. • Teacher beliefs about how hard their students were working explained much

of it.

• A second study found that, in Chicago, high school attendance records and study habits did not explain any of the GPA gap between similarly achieving black and white students.

Source: Wildhagen, Teachers College Record, (2012). Allensworth & Eaton, Chicago Consortium on School Research, (2007).

Postsecondary Outcomes

Beyond high school, initially high-achieving black, Latino, and low-SES students are much less likely than their white and high-SES peers to enroll in selective postsecondary institutions.

19%* 9%

17%

29%*

17%

15%

11%

7%

36% 17%

33%

19% 24% 34%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Black Hispanic White

22%

5%

24%*

10%

10%

7%

29%

32%

19%

47%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Low SES High SES

Highly selective 4-year

Moderately selective 4-year

Inclusive/Nonselective4-year

Attended 2 year or < 2year

Did not attendPostsecondary

Selectivity of 1st Postsecondary Institution, High Achieving Students, By Race and SES

What Lies Beneath the Numbers: Student Experiences

High-achieving students have diverse experiences in school. These experiences are shaped by their school’s culture and adults

expectations of them.

“I took a lot of AP courses, but even my regular courses were

rigorous.”

“My calculus wasn’t even

calculus.”

“Crossword Puzzles made up

60% of our grade, and

exams on made up 10.”

ON COURSES

ON Support for Postsecondary

“(The school) gave us a college counselor who we start working with

in 11th grade…They make it a requirement

that we finish our applications in

November, so that we only have to worry

about scholarships and financial aid for the

rest of the year.”

“My school didn’t really tell us what we needed

to do in order to apply to college, so a lot of

students felt overwhelmed.”

So what can schools do? Advice from High Achieving Students

• “Start early:” Offer opportunities in high school that expose students to college-level content and expectations.

• “What holds back a lot of students is people tell them ‘No:’” Communicate positive messages to students about their future possibilities, and help them identify solutions to potential barriers that stand in the way of their postsecondary dreams.

• “My advisor was probably the single greatest resource I had at the time:” Provide students with quality mentorship, particularly during the college search and application process.

• “Being in an environment with other students at or above my ability level…really helped me:” Cultivate a college-going culture such that students feel their peers aspire to similar postsecondary goals.

Charting a Course Forward: District Roles & Responsibilities

As educators, how can we ensure schools aren’t simply reproducing the existing social order and losing the talent that

already exists?

• In your district, what do you believe are the challenges that can lead to inequitable outcomes generally and for similarly prepared students?

• What questions are you asking your school leaders and cabinet on a regular basis? • The questions and data asked for signal what we value

• What do you surface and when?

• Does your cabinet know what to focus on and why?

• Is at least one question always an equity question?

• Do discussions of the achievement gap default to the low end?

Tracking high achievers:

• Does your school/district have a system to identify high achieving students?

• What is the system for monitoring course performance?

• 9th grade is crucial

• What is the distribution of grades for high end students?

• Who is enrolling in AP classes? And which classes in particular?

• What is district policy on:

• Course failures

• Course assignment

Want to learn more?

• Check out the series of reports: • http://www.edtrust.org/high_end_gaps

• http://www.edtrust.org/missing_students

• http://www.edtrust.org/fallingoutofthelead

• Contact: Christina Theoka; ctheokas@edtrust.org

• Visit www.edtrust.org