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HQ United States Air Forces

Director AF Weather3 Mar 08

USAF Tropical Cyclone SupportUSAF Tropical Cyclone Support

Fly - Fight - Win

Tropical Cyclone Support … 10 Years Ago

Current Forecast Accuracy & Improvements

Operational Vision

Air Force Support

Research Community … Need your continued support

OverviewAir Force Weather

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Typhoon warning capability critical to warfighters in Pacific/IO Must continue to work JOINTLY to improve forecast and warning accuracy

Will take research and operational focus using technology as the enabler My challenge to you is: work the 10-year plan to improve forecast and

warning accuracy by a factor of 3 or more

USAF Tropical Cyclone Support10 Years Ago

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USAF Tropical Cyclone SupportForecast Accuracy

We can work this.Impressive!

Improvement factor2.0 – 2.5!

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Typhoon warning capability critical to warfighters in Pacific/IO Must continue to work JOINTLY to improve forecast and warning accuracy

Will take research and operational focus using technology as the enabler Need research support to improve intensity accuracy by factor of 2

USAF Tropical Cyclone SupportOperations Vision

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USAF Tropical Cyclone SupportStrengths for Research

AF Weather has near-realtime access to interrogatable imagery Could be formatted and

disseminated for research projects

Hurricane Hunters – WC130J AFRC environmental recon mission

corrects/validates satellite interrogation techniques

Leverage UAS capabilities

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USAF Tropical Cyclone SupportStrengths for Research

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) operationalizes research through its techniques development section

JTWC data available in digital formats Easily leveraged for research

Continues to send officers through Naval post graduate programs to earn tropical-related masters degrees

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USAF Tropical Cyclone SupportT-PARC Objectives

THe Observing system Research and Predictability EXperiment

• Environmental characterization, insight, prediction• Scale and regional interaction – downstream effects• Tropical cyclone position, intensity, and structure change

• Atmosphere/ocean and storm/environment interaction• Multiple, near-coincident, synoptic scale observations

• METSAT intensity estimate validation/verification• Robust sample size enhances statistical significance – key to establishing confidence in existing/developmental techniques• Lack of recon data limits METSAT-based intensity exploitation

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T-PARC/TCS-08 a strategic opportunity for PACAF Bolsters unique AF support to multi-lateral/international effort Vital AF contribution to mission (USPACOM Inst 0539.1) AFSO 21 initiative -- enables transformational branches/sequels Leverages past AF investment in METSAT intensity estimates Targeted PACAF investment disproportionate strategic effect(s)

17 OWS personnel are involved with key planners ONR, NRL, NPS and NCAR Progress on non-monetary efforts, more progress expected

USAF Tropical Cyclone SupportT-PARC / PACAF Participation

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HAF providing mandays for AF Reserve aircrews Pairing satellite and aircraft reconnaissance to

draw statistically-significant conclusions on the accuracy of several automated meteorological satellite tropical cyclone intensity estimation algorithms

This research will validate/refute basin-unique synoptic-scale environmental influences/differences

One step closer to validating automated satellite techniques in NWPAC

USAF Tropical Cyclone SupportT-PARC & Hurricane Hunters

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Need research community support Top priority is intensity/structure…need improved:

Specification of cyclone structure (wind strength and distribution)

Satellite based intensity estimates

Forecast techniques for cyclone intensity/structure changes over time

USAF Tropical Cyclone SupportCommunity Help

Climate change influence on cyclone tracks / intensities Impacts on strategic / failing states (e.g., Africa, Indian Ocean)

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Questions?

USAF Tropical Cyclone SupportCommunity Help

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Quantify the amount of forecast error attributed to initial position error in the major models

Determine intensity using passive microwave radiance data

Determine if rapid fluctuations in typhoon intensity could have been influenced by ocean heat content and TC heat potential

Identify sources of large forecast track errors

Develop rules of thumb to improve rapid intensification forecasting 24 to 48 hours before it occurs

Identify factors that may enhance or inhibit tropical cyclone development in the western North Pacific

Develop a monsoon depression climatology

Develop a midget tropical cyclone climatology

USAF Tropical Cyclone SupportAFIT Thesis Topics