Progress in Disaster Science 5 (2020) 100066

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Progress in Disaster Science

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Extreme weather disasters challenges for sustainable development:Innovating a science and policy framework for disaster-resilient andsustainable Quezon City, Philippines

Tabassam Raza a,b,c,f,⁎, Carmelita R.E.U. Liwag d, Andrea Valentine L. Andres c, Jun T. Castro d, Aldrin C. Cuña e,Vincent G. Vinarao c, Thess Khaz S. Raza c, Karl Michael E. Marasigan f, Ramon Iñigo M. Espinosa a,Frederika C. Rentoy c, Bianca D. Perez f, Nisar Ahmed g

a Disaster Risk Management Unit, Graduate School of Business, Philippine School of Business Administration, 826 R. Papa St., Sampaloc, Manila 1008, Philippinesb U.P. Planning and Development Research Foundation, Inc., SURP Building, E. Jacinto St., UP Diliman, Quezon City 1101, Philippinesc Environmental Protection and Waste Management Department, 6th Floor, Civic Center Building D, City Hall Compound, Diliman, Quezon City 1100, Philippinesd School of Urban and Regional Planning, University of the Philippines, Diliman; E. Jacinto St., UP Diliman, Quezon City 1101, Philippinese City Administrator Office, Quezon City Government, 4th Floor, Main Building, City Hall Compound, Diliman, Quezon City 1100, Philippinesf Quezon City Disaster Risk Reduction Management Office, 136 Kalayaan Ave, Diliman, Quezon City 1100, Philippinesg Provincial Disaster Management Authority, 40-A, Lawrence Road, Lahore, Pakistan

⁎ Corresponding author at: Disaster Risk Management UPhilippine School of Business Administration, 826 R. PaPhilippines.

E-mail address: tabassamr@psba.edu. (T. Raza).

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2020.1000662590-0617/©2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevarticle under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creatinc-nd/4.0/).

A B S T R A C T

A R T I C L E I N F O

Article history:Received 9 June 2019Received in revised form 12 December 2019Accepted 4 January 2020Available online 13 January 2020

The cities in Southeast Asian and Small Island Developing States have distorted the natural environment by haphazardlyconstructing roads, buildings, and other infrastructures. Suchmassive changes in the environment are altering the ecol-ogy, creating sustainable development challenges such as climate-related extreme weather events. Super TyphoonHaiyan devastated portions of Southeast Asia, particularly the Philippines, on November 8, 2013, that caused physicaland psychological illnesses to the affected. To prevent these impacts and make cities sustainably develop and ClimateChange (CC) resilient, a Science and Policy Framework (SPF) piloting Quezon City Local Government (QCLG) is devel-oped. The application of SPF revealed, among others, the QCLG institutional and personnel adaptive capacities, threatlevel of CC-related hazards on development growth sectors and institutional and personnel relative vulnerabilities.These findings allowed QCLG to develop sectoral Local Climate Change Action Plan (LCCAP) 2017-2027 to mainstreamCC Adaptation (CCA) at the very early stages of development planning. The SPF and LCCAP are flexible and fashionedtoward enhancing key development sectors in creating sustainable and CCA-resilient Cities. They can be globally-effective tools for achieving the Paris Agreement, Sustainable Development Goals, and targets of the Sendai Framework.

Keywords:Disaster risk reductionAdaptive capacityHazard threat levelRelative vulnerabilitySustainable development

1. Introduction

The extreme weather event Super Typhoon Haiyan devastated portionsof Southeast Asia, particularly the Philippines, on November 8, 2013. Itserved as a wake-up call for urgent action by the Philippines and otherIsland-States to mainstream Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation(CCAM) [1]. Besides, cities in Southeast Asian Archipelagos (Philippines,Indonesia, and Malaysia) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) havedistorted the natural environment by haphazardly constructing roads,buildings, and other infrastructures. Such massive changes in the environ-ment are altering the ecology, creating sustainable development challengessuch as local flooding that cause physical and psychological illnesses to

nit, Graduate School of Business,pa St., Sampaloc, Manila 1008,

ier Ltd. This is an open accessvecommons.org/licenses/by-

those affected. Although there is an empirical understating of the linkagesbetween Climate Change (CC) and Sustainable Development (SD) [2], thebulk of this research is about scientists and policy-makers developing inno-vative bottom-up approach, building on increasing local challenges aboutCC and how to prevent such concerns and make urban areas and Island-States sustainably develop and CC-resilient. It further explores how tomainstream CCAM at very early stages of development planning. Thus, toachieve these objectives, the Quezon City Local Government (QCLG) tookan initiative to craft a Science and Policy Framework (SPF) to formulateits Development-Sectors-based Local CC Action Plan (LCCAP) that can bemainstreamed in its comprehensive development plan. It was done byoperationalizing the 4th of eight Guideposts of an existing Risk-SensitiveComprehensive Land Use and Development Planning (RSCLUDP) Model[3], which consists of step-by-step technical procedures on how to developthe outline of the SPF and conduct periodic strategic planning workshopsusing gender-sensitive participatory process. Thus, the SPF, as an innova-tive risk assessment approach, was applied in generating primary data

T. Raza et al. Progress in Disaster Science 5 (2020) 100066

about hazards characterization, exposure to elements at risk, and threatlevels [4]. Essentially, it allowed to assess impacts of climate-relatedevents/hazards (Extreme Weather Events, Change in Rain Patterns, andRise inMean Temperature in context of Quezon City) onfive sectoral devel-opment strategy areas: Social, Economic, Environmental, Land Use/Infra-structure, and Institutional; intersecting with seven CC priority areas:Food Security, Water Sufficiency, Ecological Environmental Stability,Human Security, Climate-Smart Industries and Services, Sustainable En-ergy, and Knowledge and Capacity Development; aligned with thePhilippine National Framework Strategy on Climate Change 2010–2022[5]. Also, Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to process ac-quired pertinent data to analyze climate projections and develop spatialstrategies for decision making. The results generated revealed the level ofpersonnel and institutional adaptive capacities. Further, projected casual-ties and economic losses per capita were also determined considering ano-intervention scenario. The entire operation eventually allowed QCLGTechnical Working Group to prepare its Local Climate Change ActionPlan (LCCAP) 2017-2027 comprises of Programs Projects and Activities(PPAs). These PPAs are Categorized by local development sectors andaligned with CC priority areas warrant under the National Climate ChangeAction Plan (NCCAP) 2011 – 2028. Further, these PPAs are also providedwith budget/agency and timeframe to facilitate their execution on time[6]. The appropriate application of the LCCAP will ensure the SustainableDevelopment (SD) and climate-resilience of Quezon City. The above SPFand Action Plan are flexible and fashioned toward enhancing key develop-ment sectors to create sustainable and CCA-resilient Cities and SIDS. Theycan also be considered as globally-effective tools for achieving the ParisAgreement, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and targets of the Sen-dai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction.

2. Scope of literature review

Lack of capacity for adaptation and mitigation to CC-related extremeweather events, rising in mean temperature, change in precipitation pat-tern, and mean sea level rise are extraordinarily agitating proportions ofSD areas, specifically social, economic, institutional, infrastructure, and en-vironmental. Thus, CC action planning is prudent at the very early stages oflocal development planning. This is to ensure sustainable food productionsystems and to implement resilient agricultural practices that increase pro-ductivity and production, help maintain ecosystems, and strengthen capac-ity for adaptation to extreme weather, drought, floods, and other disasters[7].

2.1. Climate-related disaster challenges and sustainable development

The first half of this decade will be remembered for deadly climate-related disasters; among them, the great floods in Thailand in 2011, Hurri-cane Sandy in the United States (US) in 2012, and Typhoon Haiyan in thePhilippines in 2013. The year 2014 was the Earth's warmest in 134 yearsof recorded history [7]. Typhoon Haiyan, which hit the Philippines in No-vember 2013, formed when the sea surface temperature of the PacificWarm Pool Region was at its highest, based on records since 1981 [8].The global increase in intense floods, storms, droughts, and heatwaveshas a likely and portentous link to CC. There is a growing literature onthe evidence linking anthropogenic climate change with natural disasters[9]. The IPCC [10] disaster risk framework sets out three linkages involvingclimate-related disasters. Firstly, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions alter at-mospheric GHG concentrations, thus, affecting climate variables, specifi-cally temperature and precipitation [11]. Secondly, changes in theclimate variables affect the frequency of climate-related hazards [13].Thirdly, the frequency of climate-related hazards, such as typhoons, hurri-canes, floods, droughts, rising sea levels and health hazards [12], affectsthe risk of natural disasters [13,14]. Further, climate hazards are becomingmore threatening, which presents the most tangible reason to deal with CCas part of a development strategy [9]. It is generally believed that the moreintense tropical cyclones and heavy rainfall episodes causing large

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economic costs and loss of lives are already the fingerprints of a changingclimate [15] impact on development sustainability. Further, it is increas-ingly being recognized that CC and development interact circularly [16].Specifically, CC vulnerability and impacts influence prospects for develop-ment, and, in turn, the development path not only determines GHG emis-sions affecting future CC but also influences capacities to adapt and tomitigate CC [17]. Sound growth policies have long been understood asthose that expand investments in physical and human capital. But, unlesswe also invest in natural capital, all bets are off. It emphasizes as well theclose link between disaster risk and SD. In context of this research, SD refersto meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of fu-ture generations tomeet their own needs; still provides the broad underpin-ning for current thinking and practice, based on balancing people'seconomic and social needs with the preservation and enhancement of nat-ural resources and ecosystems [18]. Thus, it explores prospective, correc-tive, and compensatory risk management approaches as a way tointegrate it into development activities, to avoid risk generation and accu-mulation [7]. The 17 SDGs acknowledge this strong link between humanwell-being and environmental and ecosystem services. The links betweenCC and SD are strong. Poor and developing countries, particularly themost undeveloped countries, will be among those most adversely affectedand least able to cope with the anticipated shocks to their social, economic,and natural systems. Further, CC is themost significant challenge to achiev-ing SD, and it threatens to dragmillions of people into grinding poverty. CCis not just a long-term issue; it is happening today, and it entails uncer-tainties for policymakers trying to shape the future [18]. Thus, SDG 13aims to “take urgent action to combat CC and its impact. More specifically,the associated targets of SDG 13 focus on the integration of CC measuresinto national policies, the improvement of education, awareness-raising,and institutional capacity on CC mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction,and early warnings. SDG 13's alphabetical targets also call for the imple-mentation of the commitment undertaken at the United Nations Frame-work Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and for the promotion ofmechanisms that increase capacity for effective CC-related planning andmanagement in the least developed countries and SIDS [19]. So, whatneeds to be done? This research in the Philippine context provides a solu-tion by applying a participatory approach in analyzing the climate-relateddisaster exposure of five local/national sectoral development strategyareas intersecting with seven CC-priority areas.

2.2. Climate change science and policy framework toward sustainabledevelopment

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)’s guidelineson how to develop a LCCAP [20], the training manual on preparing aLCCAP used by the Philippine Department of Local and Interior Govern-ment (DILG) in 2013 to train local planners and decision-makers [21],and the United Nations Human Settlements Program (UN-HABITAT) stud-ies in 2010 on Sorsogon City Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment[22] are considered in developing the Science and Policy Framework(SPF) in this research. Further, the integrated approach considering thelinkages among CC adaptation (A) and mitigation (M) in the context ofSD refers to AMSD is also consulted to make sure that the output of theSPF can be integrated into Local Development Plans (LDPs) [2]. Thus, thefuture LDP preparation puts SD first in recognition of the importance of de-velopment pathways on the level of emissions, the character of actual re-sponses to CC, and available institutional and personnel adaptivecapacity. Different methods of applying guidelines for providing the infor-mation required in applying for climate finances frommultilateral or directaccess from International or National domains are also considered in thepreparation of SPF [23].

2.3. Institutional and personnel adaptive capacity

There exists an important difference between coping and adaptive ca-pacities. Coping is typically used to refer to ex-post actions,while adaptation

T. Raza et al. Progress in Disaster Science 5 (2020) 100066

is normally associated with ex-ante actions. Thus, adaptive capacity refersto the ability to anticipate and transform structures, functions, or organiza-tions to better survive any hazards [24]. The adaptive capacity is used in thecontext of CCA to improve adaptive capacity against vulnerability towardthe seven strategy areas: Food Security, Water Sufficiency, Ecological Envi-ronmental Stability, Human Security, Climate Smart Industries and Ser-vices, Sustainable Energy, and Knowledge and Capacity Development; asprioritized under the National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP)2011 – 2028 [25]. It has to be noted that the Local institutional and person-nel adaptive capacity form the basis for assessment of climate resilience.Local institutions play a critical role in supporting adaptation. Thus,expanding the institutional and personnel adaptive capacities is an integralpart of creating sustainably developed and resilient societies. There is a lackof concepts and methodologies to systematically assess the capacities of in-stitutions to adapt to climate change [26]. Thus, this study incorporatedsuch gaps in developing the SPF. The Adaptive Capacity Wheel by Guptaet al. [27] was also considered in identifying institutional assessment indi-cators in one of the sub-components of the SPF.

2.4. Hazard threat level analysis

Threat Level Analysis serves as the summary of the exposure and sen-sitivity assessment. It is usually the numerical representation of thelevel of sensitivity of the exposed sector, people, and other elements atrisk against an identified CC hazard (such as Extreme Weather Event,Change in Precipitation Pattern, and/or Rising Mean Temperature)(Kyte, 2014). To determine the Threat Level of elements at risk (suchas Food Security defined by its parameters like Availability, Stability,Accessibility, and Affordability of safe and healthy food), this studyadopted the scoring matrix from the Local Government Unit (LGU)Guidebook on the formulation of Local Climate Change Action Plan,Book 1 Process Guide [28].

It should be highlighted that the Threat Level is not synonymous withRisk, as the main objective of the latter section is to calculate the RelativeVulnerability which needs to take into account Threat Level of elementsat risk, but not necessarily the Risk as the probability of damage to a specificintensity or magnitude of a Hazard.

2.5. Relative vulnerability

This step summarizes the result of the Threat Level (exposure and sensi-tivity of the element at risk to CC related Events) versus the Adaptive Capac-ity (Institutional or Personnel) of the different groups and sectors bycomputing the vulnerability ratings. The formula for computing relative

Fig. 1. Scoring matrix adopted from L

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vulnerability is [28]:

Relative Vulnerability

¼ Threat Level Based on the Exposure and Sensitivity Analysisð ÞAdaptive Capacity

ð1Þ

The output of RV ranges from1 to 5 is interpreted using a scoringmatrixadopted from LCCAP, Guide Process Book 1 [29] shown as in Fig. 1.

3. Objectives of the study

Themain objective of this research is to develop SPF through innovativebottom-up approach (Local CC Priority areas aligned with National CC pri-ority areas) building on increasing local challenges about CC and partiallyoperationalizing the components by applying it on an Urban Island-Stateto develop its Development-Sectors based Local Climate Change ActionPlan (LCCAP). The research aims to answer the following questions:

• What is an SPF and what components are part of the framework in gath-ering pertinent data in diagnosing climate-related challenges such as ex-treme weather events, change in precipitation pattern and rising meantemperature in the context of Quezon City (QC)?

• Identify the CC-related events impacting CC-priority sectors and its corre-sponding threat level to the elements at risk for that sector.

• What is CC Vulnerability/Sensitivity to understand the impact of extremeweather on development planning sectors' elements at risk such as eco-nomic, social, infrastructure, Institutional and Environmental?

• What is the institutional and personnel relative vulnerability based on thecurrent threat and corresponding adaptive capacities (Institutional andpersonnel adaptive capacities)?

• What are the CC-priority areas and Development-Sectors cross-cuttingPriority Programs, Projects and Activities (PPAs)?

4. Research methodology

Intensive internal, external, and online desk researches were used as aprimary methodology to collect secondary data. Further, the participatoryprocess was also applied in terms of conducting strategic planning work-shops and symposia involving Quezon City Local Government (QCLG)stakeholders to incorporate and tailor the existing related CC guidelines,manuals, and programs made by the National Government Agencies andNon-Governmental Organizations in developing SPF.

CCAP, Guide Process Book 1 [29].

Fig. 2. Location Map of QC (left), Framework to select Pilot City (center), and Ranking produced through LDW Software (right).

T. Raza et al. Progress in Disaster Science 5 (2020) 100066

4.1. Research locale

The selection of QC (see Fig. 2, left) as the pilot urban area was empir-ically done by collecting data from all candidate cities using the Key Infor-mative Interviews (KIIs). The specialized Logical Decision for Windows(LDW) software with the built-in statistical tool was used to rank and selectthe top-ranked city as a pilot Local Government Unit (LGU) (see Fig. 2, cen-ter) [30]. The ranking results of the candidate cities are shown in Fig. 2(right) [31].

Nine (9) candidate cities were considered including Mandaluyong, SanJuan, Pasay, Makati City, Pasig City, Manila City, Markina, Taguig, andQuezon City. The factors considered in ranking the cities with the most po-tential for being a pilot LGU include future commercial activity, need fortechnical assistance in planning, readily available data, major infrastruc-tures, availability of funds for the research area of the city, exposure to haz-ards, and political will, which are shown in Fig. 2, right.

4.2. Developing science and policy framework

The following research paradigm in Fig. 3 was developed to come upwith the Science and Policy Framework.

As shown in Fig. 3, the present study assessed existing local and interna-tional mandates, guidelines, procedures and good practices in identifyingCCA institutionalization. In addition, the research also included

Fig. 3. Research paradigm

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determining gaps in the Quezon City Comprehensive Land Use Plan2011-2030 and Comprehensive Development Plan 2010-2013 in terms ofCCA priority areas. This allowed the identification of activities that needto be included in developing the SPF to be used to figure out the solutionsin terms of Programs, Projects, and Activities (PPAs). To implement theSPF, this research also developed an instrument in form of a questionnaireto collect the pertinent data to be processed through statistical compen-dium to gather information necessary in formulating a development-sectoral-based Local Climate Change Action Plan (LCCAP).

In addition to the literature mentioned under Scope of literature reviewsection, the HLURB/CCC/UNDP/Australian Aid Supplemental Guidelineon Mainstreaming CCA/DRR in the CLUP [32]; and other available studiesrelated to the subject matter were used to develop the SFP.

4.3. Research instruments

The questionnaire as explained in the previous section was developedfor Barangay (City Development Council members) and City Governmentofficials to assess QCLG institutional and personnel adaptive capacitiesagainst seven CC priority areas. The questionnaire includes a fill-in-the-blank system to identify the climate-related events that need to be scoredas a threat level under the fourth column provided under each ClimateChange Phenomena which are explained in the first and last column. Inthe case of Quezon City three CC Phenomena have been determined: Ex-treme Weather Events, Change in Precipitation Pattern, and Rising Mean

in developing the SPF.

Fig. 4. Fill-in-the-blank form to identify climate-related events and its threat level on the elements at risk.

T. Raza et al. Progress in Disaster Science 5 (2020) 100066

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T. Raza et al. Progress in Disaster Science 5 (2020) 100066

Temperature. However, this study is limited to the case of ExtremeWeatherEvents. The CC priority areas mentioned in the third column of Fig. 4 arealigned with the NCCAP 2011 – 2028. The threat level by the CC Phenom-ena (in this case, Extreme Weather Events) to the elements at risk/priorityareas can easily be scored from two (2) to five (5) where each score depict aspecific verbal description to match the respondents' existing area situationas explained in the last column of Fig. 4. These verbal interpretations pro-vided were based on LCCAP, Guide Process Book 1 [33]. A workshop wasconducted to provide the fundamental awareness and knowledge on howto fill up the questionnaire especially how to evaluate and score the threatlevel of each phenomenon CC priority areas within their community in thecontext of QC [34].

To assess institutional and personnel adaptive capacities, this researchused six adaptive capacity factors after Local Government Academy (LGA)LCCAP Guide Process Book 1 [35]. The verbal interpretation correspondsto each factor is shown in Fig. 5. Further, the institutional and personnelRelative Vulnerabilities (RV) to extreme weather events threat level is cal-culated using the RV formula provided in the previous Section 2.5. The out-put of the RV is interpreted using a scoring matrix adopted from LGALCCAP Guide Process Book 1 [29] shown as in Fig. 1.

4.4. Limitation of the study

As mentioned previously, a formal training program is required to pro-vide knowledge on how to assess the threat level and the adaptive capacityof the institutions/personnel against CC Phenomena. Further, strategicplanning workshops were also needed to identify CC Phenomena impactsto the CC Priority Areas within five development sectors. It has to benoted that the SPF's subcomponent 4.2 (Understand alteration to surfacecover leading in creating Urban Heat Islands) and component 5

Fig. 5. Verbal interpretatio

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(Understand the scope of Greenhouse Gases emissions and identify oppor-tunities for reductions) are not within the scope of this study and thus,were not piloted. Tofind the details of these components and its implicationone can consult LGU Guidebook on the Formulation of Local ClimateChange Action Plan (LCCAP), Book 1 by Local Government Academy[36] and Quezon City Local Climate Change Action Plan 2017-2027 [37].These references have provided the application of these components toQuezon City. Further, the process and workability of the SPF are also avail-able in those studies. Further, the results of the gap analysis and Key Infor-mative Interviews (KIIs) can also be consulted at the Proceedings of theTrainings [34]. Finally, although the SPF considers various CC-related phe-nomena, this study, in particular, is limited to the Extreme Weather EventCC phenomenon to demonstrate the workability of the SPF and how itsfinal product is formulated in terms of LCCAP.

5. Findings

The following are brief descriptions of the findings of this research.

5.1. Science and policy framework

The Science and Policy Framework (SPF) is developed considering themain related available literature mentioned in Section 2.2 of the scope ofliterature review in the previous section of this paper. It has to be notedthat SPF is a technically-oriented document that can be used by the techni-cal person/expert assigned or involved in preparing Development-Sectorsbased LCCAP, in coordination with other LGU staff and relevant authoritiesin the country. Fig. 6 shows the interrelated components of SPF. The de-tailed procedure in operationalizing SPF is available as the 4th of 8 guide-posts developed by the author as part of a technical Risk Sensitive

ns of the threat level.

Fig. 6. Interrelated components of science policy framework (modified after [38]).

T. Raza et al. Progress in Disaster Science 5 (2020) 100066

Comprehensive Land Use and Development Planning (RSCLUDP) Model[38]. The brief description of the SPF components' partial implementationon Quezon City as a pilot area is given below:

5.1.1. Component 1: creating technical working groupFollowing the Guidepost 4 of the RSCLUDP Model [39], the unit in

charge of developing the LCCAP in the QCLG was able to create TechnicalWorking Group (TWG) comprising mandated direct and indirect stake-holders, including the private sector representatives. A consultation withthe QCLG was also conducted to ensure that the creation of such TWG isbased on the right combination of the elected and technical staff of theQCLG. One can consult QC-LCCAP 2017-2027 [40] for more details.

5.1.2. Component 2& 3: climate change event characterization, mission, vision,and objective setting

The outputs of these components were collected by holding strategicplanning workshops. It was done by involving pertinent stakeholders to de-termine Strength, Weakness, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) of theQCLGDevelopment Council to integrate sevenCC priorities area’ objectivesin five development sectors. The results allowed TWG to develop LCCAPmission, vision, and objectives. The fill-in-the-blank form shown in Fig. 4was also circulated during the strategic planning workshop to identify thepotential climate change events that may have impacts on different priorityareas. The threat level of exposure elements due to the impact of these CCevents was also assessed. It is used here to calculate the relative vulnerabil-ity of Quezon City. Formore details, one can consult QC-LCCAP 2017-2027[41] and Proceedings of the Training for Quezon City Stakeholders, Consol-idated Report in March 2017 [42].

5.1.3. Component 4: climate change vulnerability/sensitivity analysisTo depict Climate Change Vulnerability Analysis (CCVA) the existing

data with QCLG was considered. The secondary data shows that QC isprone to extreme rainfall; for example, Ondoy-induced floods in 2009were the most intense in recent history, in terms of Intensity-Frequency-

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Duration (IFD) impact as well as overall impacts. Therefore, it is significantto understand the impact of such extreme events as follow:

5.1.3.1. Component 4.1: understanding the impact of extreme weather. To un-derstand the impact of Extreme Weather or increased rainfall frequencydue to CC variations on the city, the historical data regarding CC risk toMetro Manila; flood disaster situation related to CC; and flood context ofQCwere considered for CCVA in preparing the LCCAP. Most of the data re-garding the above activities and methodology for analyzing vulnerabilityand risk is available in the Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk Assessment(HVRA) report developed under the Building a Disaster Resilient QuezonCity Project in 2013 [43]. Further, the following information was signifi-cant to prepare the development-sectoral-based QC-LCCAP 2017-2027:

5.1.3.1.1. Climate-driven events/incidents. It is generally believed that themore intense tropical cyclones and heavy rainfall episodes causing largeeconomic costs and loss of lives are already the fingerprints of a changingclimate [15]. Thus, the extremeweather event scenario such as the typhoonOndoy was used for the entire HVRA in developing the LCCAP [44]. It istherefore compatible and falls in with the CC Event/phenomena in termsof extreme weather events with increased frequency and severity (tropicalcyclones, storm surges, riverine floods, and rainfall).

5.1.3.1.2. Affected development sectors. The flood susceptibility map, ob-servations from Ondoy-induced flood of 2009, value of capital stock andGDP in QC, and JICA outbreakmodel were used in estimating the projectedcasualties (Fig. 7, left), population displaced (Fig. 7, right), flood-affectedbuildings (Fig. 8, left), economic losses (Fig. 8, right) and flood susceptibil-ity with critical and high loss facilities (Fig. 9, left). See reference [45] for adetailed understanding of the process used for the production of risk assess-ment and corresponding flood-affected sectors' projections. The same canbe replicated for other cities willing to produce their city/municipalityflood risk assessment.

5.1.3.1.3. Identification of hotspots. According to the reference [46], thegoal of the risk indicators and hotspot analysis is to identify the concentra-tions of the highest impact areas or hotspots within a limited geographic

Fig. 7. Projected causalities by 100-year flood scenario (on the left) and Population affected by the same flood (on the right).

Fig. 8. 100-year flood-affected building (on the left) Projected Economic losses per capita due to flooding (on the right).

T. Raza et al. Progress in Disaster Science 5 (2020) 100066

area, to focus on respective planning and decision-making. Hotspots are de-fined by a combination of several critical factors or indicators. Further, boththe physical and socio-economic dimensions are used to identify thehotspots. The indicators used in QC are linked to the most significant,

Fig. 9. Flood susceptibility with critical and high loss facilities (on t

8

quantitative outputs of the flood impact study, and combines them withthe socioeconomic vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the differentBarangays. The QC hotspots based on flood hazard and vulnerability areshown in Fig. 9 (on the right).

he left) based on Flood hazard and vulnerability (on the right).

Fig. 10. Institutional adaptive capacity (on the left) personnel adaptive capacity (on the right).

T. Raza et al. Progress in Disaster Science 5 (2020) 100066

5.1.3.1.4. Institutional and personnel relative vulnerability. The QCLG insti-tutional and personnel relative vulnerabilities are assessed first, by deter-mining QCLG institutional and personnel adaptive capacities' levelsagainst seven CC priority areas. It is done by collecting pertinent datathrough questionnaire from Barangay (City Development Council mem-bers) and City Government officials. The data is then processed using statis-tical compendium. Fig. 10 on the left side and Fig. 10 on the right show thelevel of institutional and personnel adaptive capacities against seven strate-gic priority areas respectively.

The threat levels of each CC-related event/hazard impact on seven CC-Priority Areas are shown in Fig. 11. This revealed that CC event threat levelsrange from Medium-High (4) to Medium-Low (2).

The institutional and its personnel RV to CC events against the sevenCC-Priority Areas are shown in Fig. 12, left and right respectively. The over-all institutional RV values range from Medium-Low (1.1) to Medium-High

Fig. 11. Threat levels of each CC related event

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(3.42) and its personnel RV range from medium-low (1.63) to medium(3.27).

5.1.4. Component 6: setting overall goalsTo develop the LCCAP, the City's stakeholders were to identify objec-

tives in achieving the mission of the LCCAP. The TWG was able to obtainvaluable inputs from the strategic planning workshops to identify objec-tives to reduce the climate change challenges to specific CC events impactfocusing on CC seven priority areas. The goals/objectives are identifiedconsidering the affected development sectors, existing institutional andpersonnel adaptive capacities and relative vulnerabilities, and resourcesavailable to the QC Government (QCG). Further, the national climatechange action plan, QC Comprehensive Land Use Plan (2011-2030), andQCComprehensive Development Planwere reviewed to enhance the objec-tives of LCCAP 2017-2027.

/hazard impact on seven CC priority areas.

Fig. 12. Institutional (left) and personnel (right) RV to CC events against seven CC-priority areas.

T. Raza et al. Progress in Disaster Science 5 (2020) 100066

The following Fig. 13 shows the CC events and corresponding objectivesaligned with seven priority areas.

5.1.5. Development-sectors based QC LCCAP 2017-2027The QC-LCCAP 2017-2018 [47] was developed by collecting and ana-

lyzing data from the strategic planning workshops, analysis of the data col-lected through questionnaires, and Climate Change VulnerabilityAssessments results shown in Figs. 10 to 12. These assessments allowed rec-ognizing the impact of each CC-related event to the CC priority areas undereach specific development sector. In fact the level of impact is considered toformulate the strategies to resist this impact by each CC-Priority Areas. Itwas done by defining Programs, Projects, and Activities (PPAs) categorizedby City Development Sectors with corresponding personnel responsible,budget, and time frame. There are 35 tables, where each table correspondsto one of seven CC-Priority Areas cross-cutting with one of five

CC EVENTS / PHENOMENA/ INCIDENTS

CLIMATE CHANGE PILLAR

GOAL/OBJECTIVES

Extreme Weather Events with increased frequency and severity (tropical cyclones, storm surges, riverine floods and rainfall)

Change in Precipitation Patterns

Rising Mean Temperature

CLIMATE CHANGE PILLAR 1: FOOD

SECURITY

To enhance City wi

towards CC adaptatio

To ensure availabilit

CLIMATE CHANGE PILLAR 2: WATER

SUFFICIENCY

Provide sustainable,

Evaluate City water

To improve sanitatio

CLIMATE CHANGE PILLAR 3:

ECOSYSTEM & ENVIRONMENTAL

STABILITY

To build adaptive cap

To build institutional

CLIMATE CHANGE PILLAR 4: HUMAN

SECURITY

To protect human fro

To Promote developm

To build adaptive cap

CLIMATE CHANGE PILLAR 5: CLIMATE SMART INDUSTRIES

AND SERVICES

To promote climate-p

To Implement Ecolo

Adaptation

To Comply with sco

CLIMATE CHANGE PILLAR 6:

SUSTAINABLE ENERGY

To adopt Sustainable

components of sustai

To rehabilitate and i

To promote and adop

CLIMATE CHANGE PILLAR 7:

KNOWLEDGE AND CAPACITY

DEVELOPMENT

To enhance knowled

To enhance Capacity

community level

To establish Gender

and to establish Bara

Fig. 13. CC events and corresponding objective

10

Development Sectors. Thus, one development sector will have seven (7) ta-bles where each table depict the impact on one of the seven (7) CC priorityareas. Tables 1–7 show samples of development-sectoral-based action planwith corresponding PPAs and timeframe to implement each project for theSocial Development Sector. The same tables are produced for the other fourDevelopment Sectors which can be found in the QC-LCCAP 2017-2027[47]. Only the Social Sector was exhibited due to the reason that themain focus of this study is to develop the SPF and demonstrate itsworkability.

6. Conclusions

The SPF is a technical oriented framework which includes interrelatedactivities to generate pertinent data by using existing standard proceduresincluding scientific theories and disaster impact assessment tools. The

de Food emergency storage campaign and knowledge regarding food security

n

y, stability, accessibility and affordability of safe and healthy food

safe and affordable water to all QC Barangays

governance towards a climate and gender responsive water sector

n infrastructure

acity of local government and communities associated to each Barangays

and personnel adaptive capacity towards healthy Urban living

m climate change risks such as health and social protection

ent of CC adaptive human settlements and services

acity of local government and communities associated to each Barangays

roof Infrastructures in the Quezon City

gical solid waste management towards Climate Change Mitigation and

pe of Green House Gases emission

and renewable energy and ecologically-efficient technologies as major

nable development

mprove energy systems and Infrastructures through climate proofing

t climate proofed, rehabilitated and improved energy systems and Infrastructures

ge on the science of climate change

for CC adaptation, mitigation and disaster risk reduction at the local and

sensitive CC knowledge management system for Quezon City awareness raising

ngay CC network to share good practices and other resources

s aligned with the seven CC-Priority Areas.

Table 1CC event impact on Food Security with corresponding PPAs for the Social development sector.

T. Raza et al. Progress in Disaster Science 5 (2020) 100066

stakeholder engagement and political will of the pilot that is Quezon Citywas a cross-cutting factor to implement the seven components of this frame-work that provided a 360-degree situation analysis required to producedevelopment-sectoral-based PPAs. Thus, in the application of the SPF, theoutput, in this case, is the development-sectoral-based Quezon City LocalClimate Change Action Plan, so-called QC-LCCAP 2017-2027.

Table 2CC event impact on Water Sufficiency with corresponding PPAs for the Social developm

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This study was limited to assess the impacts of ExtremeWeather Eventsto Quezon City among the CC-related events. Further, the CC Priority Areasconsidered in this study are aligned with the National Climate ChangeFramework Priority Areas, such as Food Security, Water Sufficiency, Eco-system & Environmental Stability, Human Security, Climate Smart Agen-cies and Services, Sustainable Energy, and Knowledge and Capacity

ent sector.

Table 3CC event impact on Ecosystem & Environmental Stability (bottom) with corresponding PPAs for the Social development sector.

T. Raza et al. Progress in Disaster Science 5 (2020) 100066

Development. Indeed, these priority areas are considered as the elements atrisk and their exposure is assessed by their corresponding parameters suchas Availability, Stability, Accessibility, and Affordability of safe and healthyfood for Food Security. Fig. 3 shows an instrument for assessing said param-eters against the CC-related events.

The threat data acquired from the above instrument was verified withthe spatial assessment in terms of GIS-based maps showing the vulnerabil-ity of the various elements at risk that indeed provided justification to comeup with the PPAs specific to the city.

The impact of the extreme weather on the CC priority areas in terms ofthreat level provided an idea on how these threats can hamper the overalldevelopment of the study area by the development sector such as Eco-nomic, Social, Infrastructure, Institutional, and Environmental. Solutionsfor the impactwere provided in the form of PPAs segregated by these devel-opment sectors.

The overall institutional RV to CC-related events against the seven CC-Priority Areas range from Medium-Low to Medium-High, meaning thatminor exposure of elements at risk to severe damage and danger of continu-ing damage to infrastructure and environment can lead to a widespread de-cline to the quality of life within the community. Further, the overallpersonnel RV range from Medium-Low to Medium, meaning that the Eco-nomicWealth, Institution, Infrastructure, Technology, Information, and So-cial Capacity is limited to very limited capacity.

The key to urban sustainability, climate resiliency, and promoting live-able communities is through the understanding of the impact of CC eventson seven CC priority areas and their action as driving forces to sustain fivedevelopment sectors in the Philippines context. It has to be noted that theoutput of the assessment of alteration in the surface cover and its impactin creating Urban Heat Islands (UHI), and the scope of Greenhouse Gases(GHGs) emissions are the limitations of this research, which are compo-nents of the SPF. However, such outputs were considered in defining thedevelopment-sectoral-based Programs, Projects, and Activities. In fact, theLCCAP 2017–2027 defined around 125 PPAs and segregated these PPAs

12

as 60 on immediate-term (to be implemented in less than one year), 32on short-term (to be implemented from 1 to 3 years), 17 on medium-term(to be done in 4–6 years) and 16 on long-term (need to be executed in7 years) basis. Immediate- to short-term PPAs usually caters to the CC adap-tation options whereas themedium- and long-term PPAs aremeant to coverthe execution of CC Mitigation measures. The CC-risk-sensitivedevelopment-sectoral-based PPAs are easy to mainstream in City Compre-hensive Development PPAs. This will decrease if not eliminate the duplica-tion of PPAs usually provided in the City's development plans. Theappropriate application of the LCCAP will ensure the Sustainable Develop-ment and climate-resilience of Quezon City. The above SPF and Action Planare flexible and fashioned toward enhancing key development sectors inorder to create sustainable and CCA-resilient Cities and SIDS. They canalso be considered as globally-effective tools for achieving the Paris Agree-ment, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and targets of the SendaiFramework for Disaster Risk Reduction.

7. Recommendation

• Proper training should be given to the direct and indirect stakeholders in-volved in implementing the SPF in the form of workshops and/or semi-nars where the technical experts are involved in conducting this training.

• The political stability and will are among the major factors in developingand implementing the output of the SPF. Thus, a proper transition fromone administration to the next should be seamless where no historicaldata will be lost.

• Further empirical studies should be done to include other CC-related phe-nomena such as Change in Precipitation Pattern and Rising Mean Tem-perature. In addition, Sea Level Rise and Drought can also beconsidered in coastal and rural cities/municipalities.

• GIS maps should be used to justify the feasibility and spatial distributionof each PPA.

• As the development-sectoral-based PPAs are aligned with the City/

Table 4CC event impact on Human Security with corresponding PPAs for the Social development sector.

Table 5CC event impact on Climate Smart Industries and Services with corresponding PPAs for the Social development sector.

T. Raza et al. Progress in Disaster Science 5 (2020) 100066

13

Table 6CC event impact on Sustainable Energy with corresponding PPAs for the Social development sector.

T. Raza et al. Progress in Disaster Science 5 (2020) 100066

Municipality development sectors, these PPAs should bemainstreamed inComprehensive City/Municipality Development Plan and Comprehen-sive City/Municipality Land Use Planning.

• The acquired results for Institutional and Personnel RV are based on therespondents' perceptions. Thus, the GIS vulnerability maps should alwaysbe consulted in order to verify the respondents' perceptions against the re-ality on the ground. This will allow the trainers to understand how wellthey have to perform in future workshops/seminars.

• Presently, the office in charge of implementing PPAs is the EnvironmentalProtection and SolidWaste Department. However, it is on an ad-hoc basis.Therefore, a proper institutionalization for Climate Change Adaptationand Mitigation needs to be done to implement the said PPAs.

• The immediate term PPAs should be implementing as soon as possible toevaluate existing related policy options. Thus, Quezon City's experiencesin evaluating policy options can be used in executing the short term andremaining PPAs. The QCLG should determine from the implementationof each PPA's contribution in reducing the CC event impact in terms ofno of causalities, displacement of population, the susceptibility of criticalstructure, economy, energy supply, air pollution, etc., based on local de-velopment goals and priorities.

• There is a need to integrate these development-sectoral-based PPAs underQC LCCAP 2017-2027 into the QC Disaster Risk Reduction and Manage-ment Plan (DRRMP) 2014-2020 PPAs. However, the DRRMP PPAs needto be updated and geared toward development sectoral-based PPAs.

Abbreviations

BD Board of DirectorsBPLO Business Permits and Licensing OfficeCC Climate Change

14

CCA Climate Change AdaptationCCAM Climate Change Adaptation and MitigationCCAM Climate Change Adaptation and MitigationCCC Climate Change CommissionCCVA Climate Change Vulnerability AnalysisCLUP Comprehensive Land Use PlanCPDO City Planning and Development OfficeDILG Department of Local and Interior GovernmentDPOS Department of Public Order and SafetyDRR Disaster Risk ReductionDRRMP Disaster Risk Reduction and Management PlanEPA Environmental Protection AgencyEPWMD Environmental Protection & Waste Management DepartmentGAD Gender and DevelopmentGHG Greenhouse GasesGIS Geographic Information SystemHACDRD Housing Community Development and Resettlement Depart-

mentHLURB Housing and Land Use Regulatory BoardHVRA Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk AssessmentIFD Intensity-Frequency-DurationIT Information TechnologyLCCAP Local Climate Change Action PlanLDP Local Development PlanLDW Logical Decision for WindowsLGA Local Government AcademyLGU Local Government UnitNCCAP National Climate Change Action PlanPPA Programs, Projects, and ActivitiesQC Quezon City

Table 7CC event impact on Knowledge and Capacity Development with corresponding PPAs for the Social development sector.

T. Raza et al. Progress in Disaster Science 5 (2020) 100066

QCLG Quezon City Local GovernmentRSCLUDP Risk-Sensitive Comprehensive Land Use and Development

PlanningSD Sustainable DevelopmentSDG Sustainable Development GoalsSIDS Small Island Developing StatesSPF Science and Policy FrameworkSSDD Social Services Development DepartmentSWOT Strength, Weakness, Opportunities and ThreatsTWG Technical Working GroupUHI Urban Heat IslandsUNDP United Nations Development ProgramUNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeUN-HABITATUnited Nations Human Settlements Program

Author contributions

Conceptualization and methodology, T.R., C.R.L., F.C.R., V.G.V., andT.K.S.R.; software (GIS), J.T.C. T.R., and T.K.S.R.; validation, F.C.R.,A.C.C., A.V.L.A, K.M.E.M., C.R.L., B.D.P., and N.A.; formal analysis, investi-gation, writing and original draft preparation, T.R.; review, content im-provement, and editing, T.R., R.I.M.E., and N.A.; visualization, T.R., J.T.C,and R.I.M.E.; supervision, T.R.; project administration, T.R., A.V.L.A,C.R.L., and V.G.V.

Declaration of competing interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

15

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