expo money apresentação
TRANSCRIPT
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A COMUNICAÇÃO MÓVEL NO
BRASIL
Rogério Tostes
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1
Agenda
O Mercado Brasileiro
A Virada da TIM
Perspectivas para o 4T 2010
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O Brasil está em um momento fantástico
Fonte: BACEN Setembro 2010, The CIA World Factbook 2009
PIBCrescimento real do PIB em 201010,1%
8,1%7,5%
6,1%4,0%
2,9% 2,7% 1,8%1,4% 1,2%
Previsão do PIB 2011 – 2013: 5%
► Um País em forte crescimento PRECISA de uma
infraestrutura sólida de telecomunicações para
acompanhar/ não estagnar o seu potencial
Necessidade de investir em infraestruturaPirâmide Econômica
Classe CClasse A/B
Classe D
Classe E
Milhões de pessoas Aumento de ~30MM de pessoas
Taxa de desemprego
380 415465
510540
6006509,3%
7,9% 8,1%
7,3% 7,0% 6,70% 6,5%
2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E
Salário minimoTaxa de desemprego
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4º lugar no mercado mundial em receita, com crescimento entre os maiores
Receita, US$ Bln
% YoY+5% +13% +14%+12% +10% +2%+0% -1% -3%-3%
4x Argentina,2x México,maior quequalquer
país europeu
4º
Milhões de linhas
Base de Clientes
4x Argentina 2x Italia
Fonte: Merrill Lynch Global Matrix 2º Trimestre 2010
O Brasil é o 4º mercado móvel do mundo
5º mercadodo mundo em
número de linhas
5º
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O percurso para o crescimento do setor
1.Penetração
2.Uso
3.Dados
Competição
Demanda reprimida
Nova estrutura de oferta
ONDAS DE
DESENVOLVIMENTO
MOTIVADORES
MOTIVADORES
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5Fonte: ANATEL; TELECO; Merrill Lynch Global Matrix 2º Trimestre 2010
Market Share – Setembro/2010 Acessos de Telefonia
*
86 100 121151
174 191
42
47% 53%64%
78%91% 99%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 set/10 Fixo2Q10
70%*
Densidade
Base de clientes
* % de clientes por domicílios
Percentual sobre população
Penetração Móvel
A penetração do serviço écrescente
(espera-se 2013 = 130%)
Alta competitividade no mercado móvel...... porém, ainda há espaço para crescer
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O MOU do brasiliero ainda
é baixo
A demanda de Voz e de Dados ainda é reprimida...
MinutosMOU
87 em 2009
% de Dados na Composição da Receita Movel
Percentual de receita de
dados inferior ao potencial
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País Horas/usuárioBrasil 69,9Japão 68,2EUA 65,2França 62,2Reino Unido 59,2Espanha 54,8Alemanha 54,4Itália 46,0Austrália 42,3Suiça 34,7
Fonte: CIA 2008; IBOPE Nielsen Online Jun/09, CETIC 2009
Horas de uso por usuário no mês
... Por isso é preciso criar alternativas para esta demanda
DEMANDA POR INTERNET
Da LAN House ao
Celular
Banda Larga Móvel:- Modem- Smartphone
Questão-Crítica: Oferta
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O Mercado Brasileiro
A Virada da TIM
Perspectivas para o 4T 2010
Agenda
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23,7%24,0%
24,5%
23,6%24,5%24,0%23,6%
34,6 35,8 37,5 39,7
6,5 6,6 7,0 7,236,1 37,8 39,6 41,1 42,4 44,4 46,9
35,8 37,5 39,7
6,6 6,9 7,2
1T09 2T09 3T09 4T09 1T10 2T10 3T10
“Mais Pessoas”
Participação de Mercado e Base de Clientes
Base de Clientes, MM de linhas
Crescimento % A/A
Recuperação da Liderança no Nordeste
TIM #2
Recuperação da 2ª posição em São Paulo
34%
24%
17%
Sólida Liderança no Sul
P1
P2
P3
1,7 1,7 1,4 1,11,7
2,2
-0,4
0,0 0,10,1
0,2
0,30,3
-0,3
1,7 1,81,5 1,3
2,12,5
0,1
1T09 2T09 3T09 4T09 1T10 2T10 3T10
Market Share Incremental e Adições Líquidas
Adições Liquidas, MM de linhas
Market ShareIncremental
#1
3T’092T’09 4T’09 1T’10 2T’10 3T’10
34%33%27%
5%P1
P2
P3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1T07 3T'08 1T'09 3T'09 1T'101T'083T07
Market share %, Área metropolitanaMarket share %, Área 10Market share %, PR / SC
P1P2P3
43%
22%20%14%
0
1T'09 2T'09 3T‘09 4T’09 1T‘10 2T‘10 3T‘10
25%
+19%+19%+19%+16%+17%+17%+16%Pré-pago+15%+12%+6,9%-1,8%-7,5%-8,8%-8,6%Pós-pago+19%+17%+17%+13%+12%+12%+11%Total
TIM recupera 2º lugar no
pré24,3%
34,1%39,8%
24,0% 24,5%
19,2%
Pós
Pré
TIM #1
TIM #1
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“Falando Mais”
Sainte
Crescimento % A/A
Minutos / linhas / mês
10488 85 82 78
66 59
1T09 2T09 3T09 4T09 1T10 2T10 3T10
BR GAAP, R$ BR GAAP, % da Receita de Serviços
MOU
SAC PDDEficiência de
vendas
Qualidade de Rede e de Serviço
2007 2008 2009 2T'10
40%
#1 Mkt Share LD
P3P2P1
Queda de chamadas
Qualidade de Rede
0.600.620.620.660.710.750.790.850.85
1.051,061.061.041.21
ago.09 out.09 dez.09 fev.10 abr.10 jun.10 ago.10
* SAC = Subsídios + Comissões + Publicidade
91%
97%
97%
98%100%
100%
99%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
SAC/ARPU
SAC
• 3T10: R$ 69.4 MM• 3T09: R$ 102.9 MM3,03,23,3
4,03,2
2,72,5
Entrante
1T09 2T09 3T09 4T09 1T10 2T10 3T10
70 7390 99 100
110 123
+37%+51%+42%+15%-11%-27%-26%MOU
Crescimento % A/A
-31%-25%-25%+21%+10%+11%+41%SAC
4,60%
3,10% 3,20%2,40%
2,90% 2,70%2,00%
1T09 2T09 3T09 4T09 1T10 2T10 3T10
Crescimento A/A
-1,2-0,3-1,7-1,6-1,4-3,8-4,9PDD (p.p)
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“Gerando mais Receitas”
3.1743.486 3.440 3.542 3.269 3.531 3.648
1T09 2T09 3T09 4T09 1T10 2T10 3T10
BR GAAP, R$ MM BR GAAP, R$ MM
172208 220
1T10 2T10 3T10
BR GAAP, R$ MM BR GAAP, R$ MM
Receita Total Receita de Serviços
Receita de Serviços Intelig Receita de Produtos
Aceleração
Crescimento
189
368
254
156 124213
261
1T09 2T09 3T09 4T09 1T10 2T10 3T10
2.985 3.118 3.186 3.386 3.146 3.317 3.387
1T09 2T09 3T09 4T09 1T10 2T10 3T10
Crescimento A/A
+6,1%+1,3%+3,0%-0,5%+1,0%+9,4%+6,0%∆ %
ConsistênciaCrescimento A/A
+6,3%+6,4%+5,4%+4,5%+2,3%+5,0%+5,2%∆ %
Crescimento A/A
+2,8%-42%-35%-52%+13%+71%+22%∆ %
Inversão da Tendência∆ % +14,4% + 26% +29% + 24%
2009 151 165 170 485
YTDCrescimento A/A
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“Maior Rentabilidade”
EBITDA
Margem %
EBITDA
BR GAAP, R$ MM
FCL Operacional
FCL Oper. Yield
FCL Oper.
EBIT
EBIT
BR GAAP, R$ MM
BR GAAP, R$ MM
Margem %
19,5%21,9% 22,5%
27,7%24,8% 25,1% 25,3%
618764 772
982810 887 924
1T09 2T09 3T09 4T09 1T10 2T10 3T10
Crescimento % A/A
+20%+16%+31%+5,8%-3,4%+20%+16%EBITDA
+13+15+27+6,4-4,4+10+8,9Margem EBITDA (p.p)
-1,7%
2,5% 2,3%
9,4%
4,4%6,1% 7,0%
-54
85 79
333
143214
257
1T09 2T09 3T09 4T09 1T10 2T10 3T10Crescimento A/A
>3x>2xN/A+9,0%-57%>2x+46%EBITDA
>3x>2xN/A+10-57+94+38Margem EBITDA (p.p)
11,7% 11,4%31,3%
6,5%16,5%
407 3921.109
229603
(716)(1.251)1T09 2T09 3T09 4T09 1T10 2T10 3T10
N/AN/A
Crescimento % A/A
+54%-44%+43%FCF Oper.+5,1-5,2N/AFCL Oper. Yield
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+R$6,5 Bilhões
1,8 x
Performance da TIM no mercado financeiro
Evolução do valor de mercado da TIM Valorização das ações preferenciais(1)
Recomendações dos analistas(2) sobre as ações da TIMConsideram a TIM a melhor opção de
investimento em Telecom na Am. Latina.
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Venda
Neutro
Compra
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Venda
Neutro
Compra
2009 2010• BRADESCO
• BTG PACTUAL
• CITI
• ITAÚ
Bilhões de reais % acumulado em 2010
• JP MORGAN
• MERRILL LYNCH
• MORGAN STANLEY
(1) sem direito a voto e com prioridade na distribuição de dividendos
(2) Responsáveis pelas recomendações nos maiores bancos de investimento nacionais einternacionais
18.5
Em 2011 –Conformepreço alvo do mercado
-28,9%
-9,4%
-8,3%
2,4%
10,6%
Oi
Vivo
Net
IBOV
TIM
8,5
15,0
2009 2010
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O Mercado Brasileiro
A Virada da TIM
Perspectivas para o 4T 2010
Agenda
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Perspectivas para o 4T
Expansão daComunidade
(Base de Clientes)
SFM para Voz (Uso)
Penetração de Internet
(Dados)
Estratégia
Indicadores 50 MM no final do ano
MOU 140’
~10MM Clientes
Únicos Ativos (20% Base)
Resultados Esperados
Manter
- Expansão da Base
- Melhoria do EBITDA e Margem
- Geração de Caixa
Acelerar
- Crescimento da Receita Total
- Penetração de Smartphone
- Receita de Dados
- Desenvolvimento da Intelig
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Conclusões
Resultados do 3T confirmam o Turnaround da TIM com melhorias em Qualidade de Rede, Market Share, Rentabilidade e Caixa
“Voice is Good”: voz sainte continua sendo o principal fator de crescimento em termos de Receita e Contribuição na Margem.
Ofertas inovadoras de dados como alavanca para a inclusão digital.
No 4T, insistimos nos esforços de marketing para alavancar a comunidade TIM, forçar a substituição F-M na voz e elevar a penetração do mercado não explorado de internet nos smartphones
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